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Leiame põhjused selle ajaloolise ja 
jätkuva nihketaga suurtest peredest 
väikeste suunas.

00:15:10.500 --> 00:15:17.686
Peaaegu kõik tüdrukud Moslemi 
Bangladeshis, nagu ka 15-aastane 
Tanjina, käivad nüüd koolis.

00:15:17.755 --> 00:15:24.693
Valitsus maksab nüüd peredele isegi raha,
et nad hoiaks oma tütreid keskkoolis.

00:15:25.000 --> 00:15:31.400
Tanjina koolis on nüüd tüdrukuid rohkem
kui poisse.

00:15:33.500 --> 00:15:36.300
Milline pere see on?

00:15:36.400 --> 00:15:37.700
Suur pere!

00:15:38.000 --> 00:15:40.500
Kas neil tuleb toidust puudu?

00:15:40.900 --> 00:15:43.550
Vaevalt selle tunni iva arusaamatuks jääb.

00:15:44.600 --> 00:15:47.800
Milline pere see on?

00:15:48.000 --> 00:15:49.000
Kas nad seisavad silmitsi raskustega?

00:15:49.600 --> 00:15:50.500
Ei!

00:15:51.104 --> 00:15:57.500
Haridus on efektiivne ja Bangladeshi
naiste jaoks on nüüd uusi võimalusi.

00:15:57.916 --> 00:16:04.726
Hoolimata jätkuvast ebavõrdsusest on 
töökohti rohkem ja Tanjina pürgib kõrgele.

00:16:05.000 --> 00:16:08.000
Ma armastan koolis käia.

00:16:09.000 --> 00:16:12.200
Mu ema lapsepõlve aegadel abielluti noorelt.

00:16:12.400 --> 00:16:14.500
Neil ei olnud võimalusi õppimiseks.

00:16:15.200 --> 00:16:19.950
Aga nüüd saavad meil olla suured unistused
arstiks või inseneriks saamisest.

00:16:20.129 --> 00:16:24.984
Järjest enam noori naisi mõistab nüüd, kui
teistsugused nende jaoks asjad võiks olla.

00:16:26.500 --> 00:16:30.700
Ma ei suuda ette kujutada 17-aastaselt 
abiellumist.

00:16:30.800 --> 00:16:34.500
Ma ei suudaks unistada kahe aasta pärast
abiellumisest.

00:16:34.500 --> 00:16:36.000
See on võimatu.

00:16:36.800 --> 00:16:38.700
Siis me ei mõistnud seda

00:16:39.000 --> 00:16:41.000
Aga inimesed teavad nüüd paremini

00:16:42.700 --> 00:16:47.000
Mis sa arvad, kui vanalt sa abiellud?

00:16:47.500 --> 00:16:49.000
25 aastaselt

00:16:50.000 --> 00:16:53.300
Ma viin oma õpingud lõpule ja lähen tööle

00:16:54.100 --> 00:16:56.400
Ma hakkan arstiks ja abiellun peale seda

00:16:56.900 --> 00:16:58.800
Sa oled väga nutikas!

00:17:03.299 --> 00:17:09.457
Võrratu on näha Taslimat nii
lootusrikkana oma kahe tütre 
helge tuleviku osas.

00:17:09.460 --> 00:17:15.084
Aga üks oluline muundumine toetab seda 
muutust Bangladeshis.

00:17:15.086 --> 00:17:19.500
See on dramaatiline paranemine laste 
ellujäämises.

00:17:24.208 --> 00:17:30.062
Käes on Ramadan, moslemite paastumise ja 
mõtisklemise kuu.

00:17:30.124 --> 00:17:37.058
Sel paljutõotaval ajal aitab Hanah oma 
vanematel pere kalmistut korras hoida

00:17:37.900 --> 00:17:40.200
Vajuta mulda oma kätega alla

00:17:40.319 --> 00:17:47.957
Kolm Hannah'i õde-venda surid väga noorelt.
Nad on siia maetud.

00:17:48.500 --> 00:17:50.500
Nad surid leetritesse

00:17:51.200 --> 00:17:54.400
Me nutsime nii palju, see oli nii kurb

00:17:55.000 --> 00:17:57.500
Kui arstid oleks seal olnud, oleks saanud 
neid ravida

00:17:57.700 --> 00:17:59.000
Üks oleks võinud ellu jääda

00:17:59.500 --> 00:18:02.800
Kuidas ma saan unustada? Ma mäletan neid
elu lõpuni

00:18:03.093 --> 00:18:06.080
Kui Hannah'i vanemad olid veel noor paarike

00:18:06.243 --> 00:18:11.974
Suri Bangladeshis iga viies laps enne
5-aastaseks saamist

00:18:11.978 --> 00:18:17.484
Kõik pered elasid pidevas hirmus ühe või
mitme lapse kaotamise pärast

00:18:18.400 --> 00:18:21.600
Saadi üks laps teise järel

00:18:21.800 --> 00:18:24.500
Tänu sellele, kui üks laps suri, jäi 
alles rohkem kui üks

00:18:25.300 --> 00:18:27.400
Nii see käis

00:18:28.000 --> 00:18:33.300
Me ei mõelnud, et et meil on liiga palju 
lapsi või et milline nende tulevik saab
olema

00:18:36.383 --> 00:18:44.495
Viimasel mõnel aastakümnel on Bangladeshis
toimunud suur edasiminek esmatasandi
tervishoius, eriti laste ellujäämuses

00:18:44.510 --> 00:18:48.498
Vaktsiinid, nakkushaiguste ravimid ning
parem toitumine ja hügieen

00:18:48.500 --> 00:18:51.260
on aidanud päästa miljonite laste elusid.

00:18:51.990 --> 00:18:57.243
Ja kui lapsevanemad nüüd näevad, et kõik
nende lapsed jäävad ilmselt ellu,

00:18:57.270 --> 00:19:02.041
on viimaks kadunud suurim takistus pere
planeerimisel.

00:19:02.070 --> 00:19:08.500
Isegi Dhaka agulites on naistel nüüd 
keskmiselt ainult 2 last

00:19:14.000 --> 00:19:16.525
Laste ellujäämus mõjutab kõike.

00:19:17.000 --> 00:19:18.900
Lähme tagasi ajaloo juurde.

00:19:18.950 --> 00:19:24.791
Miks maailma rahvastik enne 1800. aastat
nii aeglaselt kasvas?

00:19:24.810 --> 00:19:30.003
Läbi ajaloo näitavad kõik ajaloolised
andmed seda, et keskmiselt

00:19:30.010 --> 00:19:33.794
kahel lapsevanemal oli enam-vähem 6 last

00:19:33.810 --> 00:19:38.710
Aga see paistab ju olevat väga kiire rahvastiku 
kasv. Miks see siis ei kasvanud?

00:19:38.740 --> 00:19:47.358
Sest 1... 2... 3... 4 last neist lastest 
surid enne suureks kasvamist ja 
ise lapsevanemateks saamist

00:19:47.380 --> 00:19:51.900
Minevikus ei elanud inimesed kunagi
loodusega ökoloogilises tasakaalus

00:19:51.916 --> 00:19:55.057
Nad surid loodusega ökoloogilises
tasakaalus

00:19:55.700 --> 00:19:59.086
See oli väga traagiline!

00:19:59.120 --> 00:20:02.995
Aga see muutus koos tööstusrevolutsiooniga

00:20:03.010 --> 00:20:10.636
Paremad palgad, rohkem toitu, kraanivesi,
parem tervishoid, seep, meditsiini areng..

00:20:10.680 --> 00:20:16.016
Niisiis, tänu kõigile neile edusammudele,
miks rahvastik kasvas? Kas tänu sellele, et 
nad said rohkem lapsi?

00:20:16.016 --> 00:20:21.352
Ei! 1963. aastal, kui mina koolis käisin, 
oli laste arv ühe naise kohta vähenenud viieni.

00:20:21.352 --> 00:20:26.688
Ja põhjuseks kiirele rahvastiku kasvule oli
laste ellujäämuse paranemine

00:20:26.700 --> 00:20:31.886
Seal ajal jäi 4 last ellu

00:20:31.900 --> 00:20:35.025
Aga siiski suri iga viies ja see oli 
ikkagi kohutav

00:20:35.100 --> 00:20:39.823
Alles viimastel aastakümnetel on paljud 
riigid teinud suuri edusamme laste ellujäämuse
ja pere planeerimise valdkondades

00:20:39.850 --> 00:20:49.000
Nii et me läheneme nüüd uuele tasakaalule.

00:20:49.500 --> 00:20:52.554
Ja see on ilus tasakaal - 2 lapsevanemat saavad nüüd 
keskmiselt 2 last, kes mõlemad jäävad ellu

00:20:52.580 --> 00:20:58.714
Pered on väga rõõmsas tasakaalus.

00:20:58.750 --> 00:21:01.730
See on tänapäeval maailmas kõige normaalsem
pereolukord

00:21:01.732 --> 00:21:05.900
Ja mida see tähendab tuleviku jaoks?

00:21:05.901 --> 00:21:09.494
Ma näitan teile parimat prognoosi tuleviku
kohta

00:21:09.510 --> 00:21:13.370
parimatelt demograafidelt ÜRO Rahvastiku 
Osakonnas

00:21:13.374 --> 00:21:19.208
Ja see näeb välja selline.

00:21:19.412 --> 00:21:20.866
Kõigepealt see jätkub, kuni 8-ni... siis 
kasvab see 9-ni... ja siis läheb see siia...

00:21:20.892 --> 00:21:27.618
Aga näete - see aeglustub!

00:21:27.880 --> 00:21:29.851
Sajandi lõpuks muutub see sirgjoonelisemaks

00:21:29.854 --> 00:21:33.837
Ja kui me vaatame lähemal, on näha,

00:21:33.880 --> 00:21:37.568
et meid ootab ees "aeglustumine" ja 
rahvastiku kiire kasvu lõpp.

00:21:37.590 --> 00:21:43.669
Aga loomulikult on selles prognoosis teatav
hulk määramatust

00:21:45.059 --> 00:21:49.533
Aga me oleme kindlad, et selle sajandi 
jooksul oleme me rahvastiku kiire kasvu lõpul

00:21:49.536 --> 00:21:55.373
See kõik on tänu langeva sündimuse 
märkimisväärsele mõjule

00:21:55.755 --> 00:21:59.993
Vaadake siia. Minnes selle juurde tagasi

00:21:59.999 --> 00:22:02.007
näitan ma teile näidates laste arvu maailmas

00:22:03.015 --> 00:22:05.798
0-15 aastaste laste arv.

00:22:05.810 --> 00:22:09.589
Siit see tuleb. Vaadake:

00:22:09.800 --> 00:22:12.254
Laste arv kasvas siin aeglaselt... ja siis 
kasvas see ka kiiresti.

00:22:12.643 --> 00:22:17.320
Nii et sajandi lõpuks

00:22:17.322 --> 00:22:19.630
oli maailmas 2 miljardit last.

00:22:19.632 --> 00:22:22.619
See oli minu jaoks oluline aasta, sest siis
sündis Doris. Ta on mu esimene lapselaps.

00:22:22.630 --> 00:22:29.800
Ta sündis maailma laste jaoks väga erilisel ajal.

00:22:29.880 --> 00:22:34.971
Sest demograafidest spetsialistide hinnangul
alates sellest aastast

00:22:35.211 --> 00:22:40.540
läheb laste arv maailmas selliselt.

00:22:40.545 --> 00:22:44.745
See ei kasva enam.

00:22:44.748 --> 00:22:47.114
Sajandi lõpuks on meil maailmas endiselt
2 miljonit last.

00:22:47.115 --> 00:22:52.385
Kui Doris sündis, sisenes maailm laste arvu
tipu ajastusse.

00:22:52.446 --> 00:22:59.730
Laste arv ei kasva.

00:23:00.087 --> 00:23:02.980
Aga see ajab teid segadusse.

00:23:02.989 --> 00:23:05.890
Sest... kuidas saab kogu rahvastik nii kasvada
kui laste arv ei kasva?

00:23:05.900 --> 00:23:13.000
Kust kõik need täiskasvanud tulevad?

00:23:13.020 --> 00:23:15.784
Ja selleks, et seda selgitada, pean ma need
peened digitaalsed asjad kõrvale jätma

00:23:15.842 --> 00:23:19.989
ja näitama teile tõelist võimsat õppematerjali,
mille me oleme välja töötanud.

00:23:19.999 --> 00:23:26.386
Daamid ja härrad, ma näitan teile maailma
rahvastikku...

00:23:26.400 --> 00:23:30.220
vahuplokkide kujul.

00:23:30.222 --> 00:23:33.901
Üks plokk on 1 miljard.

00:23:35.222 --> 00:23:39.890
Ja see tähendab, et meil on maailmas
2 miljardit last.

00:23:39.910 --> 00:23:44.155
Siis meil on 2 miljardit vanuses 15-30.

00:23:44.180 --> 00:23:49.663
Need on ümardatud arvud.

00:23:49.674 --> 00:23:51.617
Meil on 1 miljard 30-45 aastast.

00:23:51.628 --> 00:23:54.230
Meil on 1 miljard 45-60 aastast

00:23:54.232 --> 00:23:57.836
ja siis on meil minu plokk: üle 60 aasta 
vanused. Me oleme siin üleval.

00:23:57.966 --> 00:24:03.167
See on maailma rahvastik tänapäeval.

00:24:03.297 --> 00:24:05.654
Te näete, et 3 miljardit on siit puudu.

00:24:05.725 --> 00:24:09.563
Ainult vähesed neist on puudu selle pärast,
et nad on surnud.

00:24:09.600 --> 00:24:12.535
Enamus neist on puudu, sest nad ei ole kunagi
sündinudki.

00:24:12.540 --> 00:24:15.960
Sest enne 1980 sündis maasilma palju vähem lapsi

00:24:16.090 --> 00:24:22.052
Sest oli vähem naisi, kes lapsi sünnitasid.

00:24:22.054 --> 00:24:24.695
See on tänane olukord.

00:24:24.700 --> 00:24:26.800
Mis tulevikus juhtub?

00:24:26.810 --> 00:24:29.400
Kas teate, mis juhtub minusuguste vanade 
inimestega?

00:24:29.475 --> 00:24:32.130
Nad surevad!

00:24:32.939 --> 00:24:34.291
Jah! Siin oli keegi, kes töötab haiglas.

00:24:34.310 --> 00:24:38.496
Seega... nad surevad!

00:24:38.566 --> 00:24:40.746
Ülejäänud elavad 15 aastat vanemaks ja 
saavad 2 miljardit last.

00:24:40.800 --> 00:24:45.781
Nemad on nüüd vanaks saanud, aeg surra.

00:24:46.740 --> 00:24:49.749
Ja nemad saavad 15 aastat vanemaks ja 
saavad 2 miljardit last.

00:24:49.800 --> 00:24:53.900
Nemad surevad ja ülejäänud saavad 15
aastat vanemaks ja saavad 2 miljardit last.

00:24:53.900 --> 00:24:58.561
Ahh!

00:24:58.580 --> 00:25:00.041
Ilma laste arvu kasvuta,

00:25:00.125 --> 00:25:02.765
ilma eluea pigenemiseta,

00:25:02.800 --> 00:25:05.608
on meil 3 miljardit inimest rohkem selle
suure ja vältimatu täiskasvanutega täitumise
tõttu,

00:25:05.633 --> 00:25:11.353
mis juhtub siis, kui suured noored põlvkonnad
saavad suureks.

00:25:11.390 --> 00:25:15.440
On veel üks detail, mis on hea uudis vanematele nagu mina.

00:25:15.465 --> 00:25:21.100
Hinnanguliselt elavad vanad inimesed natuke 
vanemaks.

00:25:21.507 --> 00:25:24.876
Nii et me peame lisama ühe miljardi vanadele 
siin üleval.

00:25:24.900 --> 00:25:28.667
Ja ma loodan meeleheitlikult, et ma saan
olla osa sellest grupist.

00:25:28.911 --> 00:25:32.635
Sest siis ma saan elada kaua ja lugeda
iga-aastast statistikat, ja igal aastal raporteerida.

00:25:32.642 --> 00:25:38.617
Aga rääkides mitmete tublite keskkonnaaktivistidega,
kes on keskkonna pärast tõsiselt mures,

00:25:38.694 --> 00:25:46.328
ütlevad nad mulle sageli: "Me peame peatama 
rahvastiku kasvu 8 miljardi juures."

00:25:46.394 --> 00:25:50.798
Kui ma nendega räägin... Esiteks, nad ei tea, 
et me oleme jõudnud laste arvu tippu.

00:25:50.800 --> 00:25:55.998
ja nad ei tea üldse, et suurem osa ülejäänud 
rahvastiku kasvust on vältimatu täiskasvanutega
täitumine.

00:25:56.000 --> 00:26:03.900
Nii et me lõpetame enam-vähem sellise
inimeste hulgaga.

00:26:03.905 --> 00:26:10.198
Seega me teame mitu miljardit saab olema.
Aga kus nad elavad?

00:26:10.850 --> 00:26:15.766
Nüüd ja tulevikus.

00:26:16.128 --> 00:26:19.497
Siin on maailm ja siin on 7 miljardit.

00:26:21.281 --> 00:26:25.894
Nendest 7 miljonist 1 elab Põhja- ja 
Lõuna-Ameerikas

00:26:26.434 --> 00:26:33.061
1 Euroopas, 1 Aafrikas,

00:26:33.068 --> 00:26:37.681
ja 4 Aasias.

00:26:37.695 --> 00:26:41.531
See on tänapäev. Aga kuidas seda meeles
pidada?

00:26:41.538 --> 00:26:43.735
Mul on selle meeles pidamiseks lihtne viis -
ma sätin need numbrid selliselt

00:26:43.740 --> 00:26:47.513
ja ütlen, et see on maailma PIN kood: 1114

00:26:47.550 --> 00:26:51.304
Kuid mis toimub kuni sajandi keskpaigani?

00:26:51.607 --> 00:26:55.272
Seda me teame üsna hästi.

00:26:55.336 --> 00:26:57.342
Euroopa... kasv puudub. Õigupoolest Euroopa
rahvaarv väheneb.

00:26:57.350 --> 00:27:02.080
Ameerika... natuke rohkem inimesi. Peamiselt
pensionärid Ladina-Ameerikas.

00:27:02.100 --> 00:27:06.490
Seega pole mingit vahet, kokku umbes sama.

00:27:06.492 --> 00:27:09.790
Aasias saab olema 1 miljard rohkem.

00:27:09.800 --> 00:27:13.005
Ja siis on rahvaarvu kasv Aasias läbi.

00:27:13.046 --> 00:27:16.322
Aafrikas järgmise 40 aasta jooksul rahvaarv
kahekordistub ja jõuab 2 miljardini.

00:27:16.363 --> 00:27:21.238
Aga... sajandi lõpupoole

00:27:21.457 --> 00:27:25.088
Me teame üsna hästi - rahvaarv ei tõuse Euroopas,
Ameerikas ega Aasias...

00:27:25.100 --> 00:27:29.767
Aga Aafrikas, vastavalt tänasele infole, on 
oodata veel üht kahekordistumist.

00:27:29.868 --> 00:27:34.600
Seega Aafrikas saab olema 4 miljardit.

00:27:34.606 --> 00:27:39.628
2100. aastal saab lõplik PIN kood ilmselt
olema 1145.

00:27:39.640 --> 00:27:45.440
Seega 2100. aastal saab maailm olema
üsna teistsugune.

00:27:45.978 --> 00:27:49.900
Inimesed, kes elavad Vanas Läänes, nagu ma
seda kutsun,

00:27:49.946 --> 00:27:53.987
Lääne-Euroopas ja Põhja-Ameerikas, moodustavad
vähem kui 10% maailma rahvaarvust.

00:27:53.999 --> 00:27:58.666
80% rahvastikust elavad siis Aasias ja Aafrikas.

00:27:58.772 --> 00:28:03.464
Aga kas siis on piisavalt ressursse, et neid 
üleval pidada?

00:28:07.700 --> 00:28:13.770
See saab olema tohutu väljakutse ja miski
ei tule automaatselt.

00:28:13.877 --> 00:28:21.500
Aga minu arvamus on, et kõigil neil miljarditel
on võimalik koos ilusti elada.

00:28:28.763 --> 00:28:36.593
Muidugi on lihtne näha võimalust jõuka ja 
rahuliku Aasia jaoks, 5 miljardi elanikuga.

00:28:36.610 --> 00:28:39.791
Jaapan, Lõuna-Korea ja teised on juba nüüd
rikkad.

00:28:39.800 --> 00:28:49.446
Teel rikkusele järgnevad neile üha suuremad
piirkonnad Hiinas, Indias, Indoneesias ja mitmetes
teistes Aasia riikides.

00:28:49.494 --> 00:28:54.954
Isegi vaesematest Aasia riikidest jõuavad
üha rohkemad korralikule elujärjele.

00:28:56.780 --> 00:29:02.500
Aga mis saab tulevikus 4 miljardi elanikuga
Aafrikast?

00:29:02.700 --> 00:29:07.688
Kas mitte ei hakka suurem osa neist elama
kohutavas vaesuses?

00:29:07.737 --> 00:29:11.716
Ma olen Aafrikas näinud äärmist vaesust.

00:29:11.750 --> 00:29:19.390
30 aastat tagasi veetsin ma oma elu 2 kõige
pingelisemat aastat töötades arstina

00:29:19.391 --> 00:29:24.806
ühes kõige vaesematest riikidest, Mosambiigis,
Aafrika idarannikul.

00:29:24.820 --> 00:29:33.039
Mosambiik oli just iseseisvunud peale pikka 
sõda Portugali koloniaalvõimu vastu.

00:29:33.100 --> 00:29:41.276
Minu töö oli olla üks kahest arstist, mõlemad
välismaalased, 300000 inimese jaoks.

00:29:41.300 --> 00:29:47.436
Ja siin on see haigla. Mu naine töötas ka seal
ämmaemandana.

00:29:47.484 --> 00:29:49.864
See on kogu haigla personal.

00:29:49.900 --> 00:29:57.623
Neil valgete kitlitega arstidel oli koloniaalperioodil
võimalus saada vähemalt ühe aasta jooksul 
erialast koolitust.

00:29:57.680 --> 00:30:01.295
Teised... paljud neist ei osanud isegi lugeda
ega kirjutada.

00:30:01.310 --> 00:30:05.796
Aga nad kõik töötasid suure pühendumuse ja 
motivatsiooniga!

00:30:05.964 --> 00:30:11.956
Aga patsiendid tulid ülimast vaesusest kõige 
hullemate haigustega.

00:30:11.968 --> 00:30:15.195


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