0:00:04.780,0:00:10.400 We live in a world of relentless change. 0:00:11.334,0:00:15.155 Huge migrations of people to new mega cities 0:00:15.158,0:00:18.727 filling soaring skyscrapers 0:00:18.727,0:00:21.436 and vast slums. 0:00:21.440,0:00:25.760 Ravenous appetites for fuel and food, 0:00:25.770,0:00:28.780 unpredictable climate change 0:00:29.000,0:00:35.087 and all this in a world where the population is still growing. 0:00:36.460,0:00:38.277 Should we be worried? 0:00:38.280,0:00:41.516 Should we be scared? 0:00:42.660,0:00:46.100 How to make sense of it all? 0:00:52.501,0:00:59.000 7 billion people now live on this planet of ours. Isn't it beautiful? 0:00:59.010,0:01:03.500 But when some people think about the world and its future, they panic! 0:01:03.510,0:01:06.267 Others prefer not to think about it all. 0:01:06.280,0:01:09.800 But tonight I’m going to show you how things really are. 0:01:09.971,0:01:13.000 My name is Hans Rosling. I’m a statistician at…. 0:01:13.010,0:01:15.036 NO, NO, NO, NO! Don’t switch off! 0:01:15.040,0:01:19.509 Because with the latest data from all countries I’m going to show you the world in a new way. 0:01:19.510,0:01:22.654 I’m going to tell you how world population is changing 0:01:22.656,0:01:27.622 and what today’s data tell us about how the future of the world will be. 0:01:27.630,0:01:32.240 We undeniably face huge challenges 0:01:32.240,0:01:36.693 but the good news is that the future may not be quite as gloomy 0:01:36.800,0:01:42.400 and that mankind is already doing better than many of you think! 0:01:44.000,0:01:45.400 Don't Panic! 0:01:45.500,0:01:47.300 The Truth About Population 0:01:47.400,0:01:49.740 with professor Hans Rosling 0:01:51.495,0:01:53.350 Babies. 0:01:53.355,0:01:55.170 Each one a blessing. 0:01:55.300,0:01:59.000 But many people think population growth is out of control. 0:01:59.500,0:02:02.400 Some even talk of a population bomb! 0:02:03.450,0:02:05.800 Are they right? 0:02:08.000,0:02:11.810 So where are we with population today? And how did we get here? 0:02:11.900,0:02:16.279 I am going to tell you a history about everyone who ever lived! 0:02:16.345,0:02:20.200 Well, at least during the last some 1000 years. 0:02:20.250,0:02:21.700 Here we go. 0:02:21.800,0:02:25.122 I give you 2 axes. 0:02:25.123,0:02:33.194 This is time in years, and this one here is world population in billions. 0:02:33.240,0:02:41.404 In the year 10,000 BC, when the first people where becoming farmers, then the archeologists estimate 0:02:41.420,0:02:45.468 that the world population was only 10 million. 0:02:45.468,0:02:49.488 Imagine: 10 million! That’s is like Sweden today! 0:02:49.490,0:02:53.000 A world of only Swedes! 0:02:53.414,0:03:01.385 But then, as the millennia passed by, more farmers, food and people, and great empires could emerge. 0:03:01.390,0:03:06.110 Egypt, China, India, and finally Europe. 0:03:06.120,0:03:09.672 And population continued to grow, but very slowly. 0:03:09.682,0:03:13.772 And I stop here, at the year 1800. 0:03:13.782,0:03:19.972 Because it was in 1800 that the world population became 1 billion. 0:03:19.982,0:03:28.693 Imagine… All that time, the population growth was just a tiny fraction of a percent, through thousands of years. 0:03:28.699,0:03:35.460 But here in 1800, with the industrial revolution, everything changed and population started to grow faster. 0:03:35.504,0:03:39.308 In little more than 100 years, it reached 2 billions. 0:03:39.315,0:03:43.273 And then, when I was in school, it was 3 billion. 0:03:43.283,0:03:49.658 And many people said: ‘The planet can not support more people.’ Even experts said that. 0:03:49.685,0:03:52.128 But what happened was this... 0:03:52.133,0:03:58.609 We became 4 billion… 5 billion… 6 billion… 7 billion! 0:03:58.620,0:04:05.380 Imagine… More than half of the world population have been added during my lifetime. 0:04:05.407,0:04:08.992 And the number is still rising. 0:04:10.414,0:04:15.595 Most of the population growth, in recent years, has been in Asian countries. 0:04:15.619,0:04:21.438 Like here, in Bangladesh, where the population has tripled during my lifetime. 0:04:21.466,0:04:27.504 From 50 million to more than 150 million. 0:04:28.288,0:04:32.780 It is now one of the most densely populated countries in the world. 0:04:32.790,0:04:40.031 Some 15 million already live in the very crowded capital Dhaka. 0:04:40.100,0:04:48.470 People here, whether in the city or the countryside, are intensely concerned about the size of families. 0:04:49.819,0:04:52.150 But a new Bangladesh is emerging… 0:04:52.168,0:04:59.100 Like the Khan family. Mom Taslima, daughters Tanjina and little Sadia. 0:04:59.200,0:05:03.602 And dad Hannan. 0:05:04.100,0:05:07.500 Women take agest to get ready, men don't take as long. 0:05:08.500,0:05:12.800 If you're going to wipe it off with your hands, why put it on? 0:05:14.176,0:05:17.736 Both Taslima and Hannan come from large families themselves. 0:05:17.738,0:05:21.500 But they’ve decided to have just 2 children. 0:05:21.700,0:05:25.402 In Bangladesh there's slogan you hear everywhere. 0:05:26.200,0:05:29.300 "No more than two kids - one is even better!" 0:05:33.550,0:05:36.600 It's lucky I only have two kids. 0:05:37.000,0:05:39.500 If I had more I couldn't afford it. 0:05:39.900,0:05:42.000 With two kids, I can buy what they want. 0:05:47.000,0:05:50.300 My pockets are empty now! 0:05:50.812,0:05:56.002 Taslima and Hannan are part of a cultural shift away from big families. 0:05:56.010,0:05:59.728 And for Taslima, it has also become a job. 0:05:59.740,0:06:03.525 She works for the government Family Planning Service 0:06:03.527,0:06:06.583 which employs women like her in every village. 0:06:06.691,0:06:14.295 She goes door-to-door, to try to help others to have smaller families too. 0:06:15.000,0:06:16.600 When was your last period? 0:06:16.900,0:06:19.000 It was on the 22nd. 0:06:19.300,0:06:21.000 So you're not using any method of contraception? 0:06:21.500,0:06:23.200 Won't it be a problem if you conceive? 0:06:23.600,0:06:25.900 I don't get pregnant easily. 0:06:26.400,0:06:28.400 But you already have two children. 0:06:28.800,0:06:31.000 I don't have time to go to the clinic. 0:06:31.500,0:06:35.622 Taslima offers advice, moral support and most importantly, 0:06:35.850,0:06:38.400 a range of contraceptives. 0:06:39.800,0:06:43.000 You've got three daughters - do you really want to have any more kids? 0:06:44.910,0:06:46.400 It's up to the father. 0:06:46.500,0:06:50.200 You're the one giving birth, why is it up to him? 0:06:50.600,0:06:53.200 You have to go through the pain, he doesn't. 0:06:53.510,0:06:55.122 Who has to go through the pain? 0:06:55.900,0:06:59.600 I go through the pain, but if he wants a boy what can I do? 0:07:00.000,0:07:04.600 Here's the pill, take them when you start your period 0:07:10.000,0:07:13.300 It can be hard to get through to them when they're less educated. 0:07:13.700,0:07:16.200 But gradually we're getting the message across. 0:07:17.270,0:07:23.468 So how successful has Taslima and Bangladesh been in reducing fertility rate? 0:07:23.487,0:07:26.089 That is the number of babies born per woman. 0:07:26.108,0:07:28.912 In Sweden we set up the Gapminder Foundation 0:07:28.914,0:07:33.717 to make the world’s data available in a way that everyone can understand. 0:07:33.749,0:07:37.712 So I can show you the situation in Bangladesh and what has happened. 0:07:37.720,0:07:41.375 Here, a horizontal axis, babies per woman. 0:07:41.427,0:07:44.853 All the way from 1 to 2…. 7 to 8. 0:07:44.871,0:07:48.936 and here a vertical axis, that is lifespan, 0:07:48.937,0:07:53.557 life expectancy, how many years a newborn can expect to live. 0:07:53.692,0:07:56.111 From 30 all the way up to 90. 0:07:56.111,0:08:00.093 Now… we start in 1972 0:08:00.115,0:08:04.970 a very important year for Bangladesh, the first full year of independence. 0:08:04.980,0:08:08.400 That year, Bangladesh was over there 0:08:08.500,0:08:11.489 and they had on average 7 babies per woman 0:08:11.522,0:08:14.949 and lifespan was less than 50 years. 0:08:14.984,0:08:17.336 So what has happened after independence? 0:08:17.386,0:08:22.309 Has life become longer in Bangladesh? Have children become fewer? 0:08:22.326,0:08:25.000 Here is the data. I start Bangladesh 0:08:25.010,0:08:28.669 Indeed, life is getting longer and babies, fewer… 6… 5… 0:08:28.680,0:08:30.941 and life even longer… 4…3… 0:08:30.941,0:08:37.443 and they land now almost in 2. It’s 2.2. And the lifespan is 70. 0:08:37.480,0:08:43.325 It’s absolutely amazing! In 40 years, Bangladesh has gone 0:08:43.357,0:08:48.131 from 7… 6… 5… 4… 3… 2… 0:08:48.150,0:08:52.248 It’s a miracle that has happened in Bangladesh! 0:08:52.300,0:08:56.690 But is it only in Bangladesh? Well, I will show you the whole world. 0:08:56.700,0:09:02.376 I will go back 50 years in time, to 1963. 0:09:02.390,0:09:04.863 Here are all the countries. 0:09:04.890,0:09:13.037 These green ones are America, north and south. The yellow are Europe, east and west. 0:09:13.049,0:09:20.915 Blue is Africa, north and south of the Sahaara. And red is Asia, and we include Australia and New Zealand. 0:09:20.986,0:09:25.400 The size of the bubble shows the size of the population. Look: 0:09:25.428,0:09:31.636 The big ones over there are China and India. And Bangladesh is just behind. 0:09:32.121,0:09:38.211 In 1963 the average number of babies born per woman in the world was 5. 0:09:38.293,0:09:41.700 But it was a divided world… can you see that? 0:09:41.800,0:09:49.002 These countries over here, the developed countries, had small families and long lives. 0:09:49.073,0:09:55.340 And then there were the developing countries, and they had large families and short lives. 0:09:55.350,0:09:57.827 Very few countries were in between. 0:09:57.839,0:10:00.078 But now we will see what has happened. 0:10:00.089,0:10:02.328 I start the world! 0:10:02.399,0:10:03.986 Here we go… 0:10:03.998,0:10:07.890 You can see China, the big bubble, is getting better health 0:10:07.904,0:10:10.974 and then they start family planning, they move along to smaller families. 0:10:10.987,0:10:13.900 The big green, look at Mexico, it is coming there! 0:10:14.095,0:10:16.957 This is Brazil, also the green in Latin America. 0:10:16.970,0:10:22.169 And here India is following. The big red bubbles are Asian countries going this way. 0:10:22.200,0:10:25.439 Many Africans are still with ‘many babies born per woman’. 0:10:25.440,0:10:29.500 And then Bangladesh over there overtakes India on its way to the small family. 0:10:29.705,0:10:33.363 And now almost all countries go up to this part, even Africa now starts to move up. 0:10:33.436,0:10:36.502 Oooh! That was the earthquake in Haiti! 0:10:36.516,0:10:41.537 And now everyone ends up there. What a change we have! 0:10:42.084,0:10:47.578 Today, the average in the world is 2.5 0:10:47.592,0:10:51.902 It used to be 5 fifty years ago. 0:10:52.004,0:10:59.157 The world has changed: the average number of babies born per woman has gone from 5 to 2.5 0:10:59.171,0:11:04.192 And it is still decreasing…. What a big change! 0:11:04.220,0:11:11.300 People would think that Bangladesh and countries like that are some sort of epicenter of a population bomb. 0:11:11.372,0:11:13.491 They couldn’t be more wrong. 0:11:13.563,0:11:17.459 To me, health workers like Mrs. Taslima and their colleagues, 0:11:17.470,0:11:23.738 who have taken their countries from this side… all over… in a few decades 0:11:23.810,0:11:28.713 to much better health and small families, they are the heroes of our time! 0:11:28.785,0:11:32.326 It is an amazing change that has happened. 0:11:32.339,0:11:36.057 We no longer live in a divided world. 0:11:36.544,0:11:41.802 But how much do people know about this amazing change? 0:11:41.816,0:11:50.500 At Gapminder we not only show data, we also measure how much people know or don't know about the world. 0:11:50.523,0:11:56.788 So we did the first survey in Sweden. The results were depressing! 0:11:56.800,0:12:04.429 We did our second survey in Britain. We had high hopes, because the British had been all over the place. 0:12:04.501,0:12:06.916 We thought we would get good results here. 0:12:06.950,0:12:12.898 The first question we asked was: how many babies do women have on average in Bangladesh? 0:12:13.000,0:12:19.300 And we gave four alternatives: 2.5, 3.5, 4.5 or 5.5 0:12:19.500,0:12:22.450 This is the result of the British survey. 0:12:28.458,0:12:33.420 But you know the right answer: it’s 2.5 0:12:33.450,0:12:37.507 Only 12 percent of the British got it right. 0:12:37.520,0:12:43.489 So we thought that perhaps it was those with low education who dragged down the result. 0:12:43.500,0:12:49.531 So we segmented those who had been to the fine British universities and had an university degree. 0:12:49.545,0:12:55.632 And here they are. This is the result. 0:12:57.541,0:13:00.785 If anything, they did worse! 0:13:00.799,0:13:04.931 So now you may conclude that the British lack knowledge about the world. 0:13:04.950,0:13:07.182 No, no! 0:13:07.196,0:13:11.683 What if I would have asked this chimp and his friends? 0:13:11.697,0:13:18.021 I would have written the different answers on bananas and let them pick one banana each. 0:13:18.035,0:13:20.923 This result I would get. 0:13:20.950,0:13:23.766 Of course chimps know nothing about Bangladesh. 0:13:29.052,0:13:34.487 But by pure randomness, they would pick twice as many correct answers as the British. 0:13:35.620,0:13:42.500 More than half of the British people think it’s 4.5 or more. 0:13:43.149,0:13:48.703 The problem here is not lack of knowledge, it is preconceived ideas. 0:13:48.797,0:13:52.300 The British can not even imagine, cannot even guess 0:13:52.325,0:13:57.726 that women in Banglash have 2.5 babies in average. And it is really 2.2 already. 0:13:57.728,0:14:04.894 This is what the British don’t know: that Taslima and her family are the norm in Bangladesh, the most common family size. 0:14:04.908,0:14:12.120 And it’s not only there, it’s all over the world. In Brazil, 2 child families. 0:14:12.150,0:14:16.088 Vietnam, 2 child families. 0:14:16.103,0:14:21.656 And even in India, the most common family size is 2 children today. 0:14:21.671,0:14:26.217 And also if you go to the African continent, you go the big cities like Addis Ababa. 0:14:26.600,0:14:29.593 There are less than 2 children per woman in Addis Ababa. 0:14:29.600,0:14:34.213 There can be Muslin, Buddhist, Hindu, Christian… 0:14:34.228,0:14:39.400 There is not one religion, not one culture, not one continent 0:14:39.405,0:14:41.020 where 2 child families can not happen. 0:14:42.000,0:14:45.680 This change from big families down to 2 child families 0:14:45.702,0:14:51.200 is one of the most important things that have happened in the world during my lifetime. 0:14:51.227,0:14:54.500 It is unprecedented in human history! 0:14:59.600,0:15:02.515 Here we are, back in Bangladesh. 0:15:02.800,0:15:09.867 Let’s find the reasons behind this historic and continuing shift from large to small families. 0:15:10.500,0:15:17.686 Almost all girls in Muslim Bangladesh, like 15-year-old Tanjina, go to school today. 0:15:17.755,0:15:24.693 The government now even pays families money to keep their daughters on at secondary level. 0:15:25.000,0:15:31.400 At Tanjina’s school boys are now outnumbered by girls. 0:15:33.500,0:15:36.300 What type of family is this? 0:15:36.400,0:15:37.700 A big family! 0:15:38.000,0:15:40.500 Will they be short of food? 0:15:40.900,0:15:43.550 You could hardly miss the point of this lesson. 0:15:44.600,0:15:47.800 What type of family is this? 0:15:48.000,0:15:49.000 Will they face any difficulties? 0:15:49.600,0:15:50.500 No! 0:15:51.104,0:15:57.500 Education is effective and there are also new opportunities for Bangladeshi women. 0:15:57.916,0:16:04.726 Despite continuing inequalities, there are more jobs and Tanjina is aiming high. 0:16:05.000,0:16:08.000 I love going to school 0:16:09.000,0:16:12.200 In my mother's day, they used to get married young 0:16:12.400,0:16:14.500 They had no chance to study 0:16:15.200,0:16:19.950 But now we can have big dreams of becoming a doctor or an engineer 0:16:20.129,0:16:24.984 More and more young women here are seeing how different things could be for them. 0:16:26.500,0:16:30.700 I can't imagine how you got married at 17 0:16:30.800,0:16:34.500 I couldn't dream of getting married in two years' time 0:16:34.500,0:16:36.000 It's impossible 0:16:36.800,0:16:38.700 We didn't understand back then 0:16:39.000,0:16:41.000 But people know better now 0:16:42.700,0:16:47.000 So what age are you thinking of getting married? 0:16:47.500,0:16:49.000 Twenty five 0:16:50.000,0:16:53.300 I'll finish my education and get a job 0:16:54.100,0:16:56.400 I'll become a doctor and get married after that 0:16:56.900,0:16:58.800 You're very smart! 0:17:03.299,0:17:09.457 It is wonderful to see Taslima so full of hope for a bright future for her two daughters. 0:17:09.460,0:17:15.084 But one essential transformation underpins the change in Bangladesh. 0:17:15.086,0:17:19.500 It’s a dramatic improvement in child survival. 0:17:24.208,0:17:30.062 It’s Ramadan, the Muslim month of fasting and reflection. 0:17:30.124,0:17:37.058 At this auspicious time, Hanan is helping his parents to tend the family graveyard. 0:17:37.900,0:17:40.200 Press the soil down with your hands 0:17:40.319,0:17:47.957 Three of Hannan’s siblings died when they were very young. They are buried here. 0:17:48.500,0:17:50.500 They died of measles 0:17:51.200,0:17:54.400 We cried so much, it was so sad 0:17:55.000,0:17:57.500 If doctors had been there they could have been treated 0:17:57.700,0:17:59.000 One might have survived 0:17:59.500,0:18:02.800 How can I forget? I will remember them as long as I live 0:18:03.093,0:18:06.080 Back when Hannan’s parents where a young couple, 0:18:06.243,0:18:11.974 1 in 5 children in Bangladesh died before they reached 5 years of age. 0:18:11.978,0:18:17.484 All families lived with a constant fear of losing one or more children. 0:18:18.400,0:18:21.600 You'd carry on having one child after another 0:18:21.800,0:18:24.500 Then if one died, you wouldn't have just one left 0:18:25.300,0:18:27.400 That's how it was 0:18:28.000,0:18:33.300 We didn't think we were having too many children, or what their future would be 0:18:36.383,0:18:44.495 In the last few decades Bangladesh has made great progress in basic health, particularly in child survival. 0:18:44.510,0:18:48.498 Vaccines, treatments of infections and better nutrition and hygiene 0:18:48.500,0:18:51.260 have all saved the lives of millions of children. 0:18:51.990,0:18:57.243 And as parents have come to see that all their children are now likely to survive, 0:18:57.270,0:19:02.041 the biggest obstacle to family planning has at last gone. 0:19:02.070,0:19:08.500 Even in the slums of Dhaka, women now have on average just 2 children. 0:19:14.000,0:19:16.525 Child survival drives everything. 0:19:17.000,0:19:18.900 Let’s go back into history. 0:19:18.950,0:19:24.791 Why did the world population grow so slowly before 1800? 0:19:24.810,0:19:30.003 Throughout history, all historical records show us that, on average 0:19:30.010,0:19:33.794 2 parents got more or less 6 children. 0:19:33.810,0:19:38.710 But that looks as a very fast population growth. So why didn’t it grow? 0:19:38.740,0:19:47.358 Because 1… 2… 3… 4 of the children died before growing up to become parents themselves. 0:19:47.380,0:19:51.900 People in the past never lived in ecological balance with nature, 0:19:51.916,0:19:55.057 they died in ecological balance with nature. 0:19:55.700,0:19:59.086 It was utterly tragic! 0:19:59.120,0:20:02.995 But with the industrial revolution, this changed. 0:20:03.010,0:20:10.636 Better wages, more food, tapped water, better sanitation, soap, medical advances.... 0:20:10.680,0:20:16.618 So from all these advances, why did the population grow? Was it because they got more children? 0:20:16.667,0:20:26.688 No! In 1963 when I was at school, actually the number of children per woman had decreased a little in the world, to 5. 0:20:26.700,0:20:31.886 And the reason for the fast population growth was the improved children survival. 0:20:31.900,0:20:35.025 4 survived at that time. 0:20:35.100,0:20:39.823 But still 1 out of 5 died, that was still terrible. 0:20:39.850,0:20:49.000 It’s only in the recent decades that most countries have taken big leaps forward in child survival and in family planning. 0:20:49.500,0:20:52.554 So that we are now approaching the new balance. 0:20:52.580,0:20:58.714 And it’s a nice balance: 2 parents on average get 2 children that survive. 0:20:58.750,0:21:01.730 We have families in a very happy balance. 0:21:01.732,0:21:05.900 This is the most normal family situation in the world today. 0:21:05.901,0:21:09.494 And what does it mean for the future here? 0:21:09.510,0:21:13.370 I will show you the best projection into the future, 0:21:13.374,0:21:19.208 from the finest demographers we have, at the Population Division of the United Nations. 0:21:19.412,0:21:20.866 And it looks like this. 0:21:20.892,0:21:27.618 It is going to continue first, up to 8… then it goes up to 9… and then it goes here… 0:21:27.880,0:21:29.851 But see: it’s slowing down! 0:21:29.854,0:21:33.837 By the end of the century it is becoming more flat there. 0:21:33.880,0:21:37.568 And if I do a close-up on this, you can see 0:21:37.590,0:21:43.669 that we are expecting a ’slowing down’ and the end of fast population growth. 0:21:45.059,0:21:49.533 But of course this is a projection that has a certain degree of uncertainty. 0:21:49.536,0:21:55.373 But we are sure that we are at the end of fast population growth within this century. 0:21:55.755,0:21:59.993 It is all due to a remarkable effect of the falling fertility rate. 0:21:59.999,0:22:02.007 Look here. If we go back into this 0:22:03.015,0:22:05.798 I will show this by showing you the number of children in the world. 0:22:05.810,0:22:09.589 The number of children from 0 to 15 years of age. 0:22:09.800,0:22:12.254 Here they come. Look: 0:22:12.643,0:22:17.320 The number of children there increased slowly… and then it also increased rapidly… 0:22:17.322,0:22:19.630 So by the turn of the century here 0:22:19.632,0:22:22.619 there were 2 billion children in the world. 0:22:22.630,0:22:29.800 To me that was an important year because that was when Doris was born. That’s my first grandchild. 0:22:29.880,0:22:34.971 She was born at a very special time for children in the world. 0:22:35.211,0:22:40.540 Because the specialist demographers estimate that from this year 0:22:40.545,0:22:44.745 the number of children in the world will continue like this. 0:22:44.748,0:22:47.114 It will not increase any longer. 0:22:47.115,0:22:52.385 By the end of the century we will still have 2 billion children in the world. 0:22:52.446,0:22:59.730 When Doris was born was when the world entered into the age of peak child. 0:23:00.087,0:23:02.980 The number of children are not increasing. 0:23:02.989,0:23:05.890 Now, this will confuse you. 0:23:05.900,0:23:13.000 Because… how can the total population grow like this, if the children don’t increase? 0:23:13.020,0:23:15.784 Where will all these adults come from? 0:23:15.842,0:23:19.989 And to explain that I have to leave this fancy digital stuff 0:23:19.999,0:23:26.386 and show you real powerful educational material we have developed. 0:23:26.400,0:23:30.220 I will show you the world population, ladies and gentleman... 0:23:30.222,0:23:33.901 in the form of foam blocks. 0:23:35.222,0:23:39.890 One block is 1 billion. 0:23:39.910,0:23:44.155 And that means that we have 2 billion children in the world. 0:23:44.180,0:23:49.663 Then we have 2 billion between 15 and 30 years of age. 0:23:49.674,0:23:51.617 These are rounded numbers. 0:23:51.628,0:23:54.230 We have 1 billion of 30 to 45 years of age, 0:23:54.232,0:23:57.836 we have 1 billion of 45 to 60 years of age 0:23:57.966,0:24:03.167 and then we have my block: 60 years and older. We are here on top. 0:24:03.297,0:24:05.654 This is the world population today. 0:24:05.725,0:24:09.563 You can see that there are 3 billions missing here. 0:24:09.600,0:24:12.535 Only a few of them are missing because they have died. 0:24:12.540,0:24:15.960 Most of them are missing because they were never born. 0:24:16.090,0:24:22.052 Because before 1980 there were much fewer children born in the world 0:24:22.054,0:24:24.695 because there were fewer women giving birth to children. 0:24:24.700,0:24:26.800 So this is what we have today. 0:24:26.810,0:24:29.400 Now what will happen in the future? 0:24:29.475,0:24:32.130 Do you know what happens to old people like me? 0:24:32.939,0:24:34.291 They die! 0:24:34.310,0:24:38.496 Yes! There was someone here who works in hospitals. 0:24:38.566,0:24:40.746 So… they die! 0:24:40.800,0:24:45.781 The rest grows 15 years older and have 2 billion children. 0:24:46.740,0:24:49.749 These ones are now old, time to die. 0:24:49.800,0:24:53.900 And then these ones grow 15 years older and they have 2 billion children. 0:24:53.900,0:24:58.561 This one die and the rest grow 15 years older and have 2 billion children. 0:24:58.580,0:25:00.041 Ah! 0:25:00.125,0:25:02.765 Without increasing the number of children, 0:25:02.800,0:25:05.608 without increasing the length of life, 0:25:05.633,0:25:11.353 we have 3 billion people more by this big and inevitable fill up of adults. 0:25:11.390,0:25:15.440 which happen just when the large young generations grow up. 0:25:15.465,0:25:21.100 Now there is one more detail, which is good news for the older ones here, like me. 0:25:21.507,0:25:24.876 It is estimated that the old people will live a little longer. 0:25:24.900,0:25:28.667 So we have to add 1 billion more for the old here on the top. 0:25:28.911,0:25:32.635 And I’m desperately hoping that I will be part of that group. 0:25:32.642,0:25:38.617 Because then I can live long and read annual statistics as they come, reporting every year… 0:25:38.694,0:25:46.328 But when I talk to many fine environmental activists, who have a good concern about the environment 0:25:46.394,0:25:50.798 they very often tell me ‘we have to stop population growth at 8 billion’. 0:25:50.800,0:25:55.998 When I then talk to them… first, they don’t know that we have reached peak child. 0:25:56.000,0:26:03.900 and then they are completely unaware that most of the remaining population growth is an inevitable fill up of adults. 0:26:03.905,0:26:10.198 So we will end up with more or less this amount of people. 0:26:10.850,0:26:15.766 So we know how many billions there will be. But what about where they live? 0:26:16.128,0:26:19.497 Now and in the future. 0:26:21.281,0:26:25.894 There you have the world and here are the 7 billion. 0:26:26.434,0:26:33.061 Out of the 7 billion, 1 live in the America, north and south together. 0:26:33.068,0:26:37.681 1 in Europe, 1 in Africa, 0:26:37.695,0:26:41.531 and 4 in Asia. 0:26:41.538,0:26:43.735 This is nowadays. But how to remember this? 0:26:43.740,0:26:47.513 I have a simple way of remembering this: I put up the numbers like this 0:26:47.550,0:26:51.304 and then I say this is the pin code of the world: 1114. 0:26:51.607,0:26:55.272 Now, what will happen up to mid-century? 0:26:55.336,0:26:57.342 That we know fairly well. 0:26:57.350,0:27:02.080 Europe… no increase. In fact, the European population is decreasing. 0:27:02.100,0:27:06.490 In America, a little more people. Mainly retired people in Latin America, 0:27:06.492,0:27:09.790 So it makes no difference, it's almost the same. 0:27:09.800,0:27:13.005 In Asia we will have 1 billion more. 0:27:13.046,0:27:16.322 and then the population growth in Asia is over. 0:27:16.363,0:27:21.238 In Africa, in the next 40 years, the population will double to 2 billion. 0:27:21.457,0:27:25.088 Now… to the end of the century 0:27:25.100,0:27:29.767 Well… we know quite well: no more people in Europe, no more in America, no more in Asia… 0:27:29.868,0:27:34.600 But Africa is set, as we have data today, for another doubling. 0:27:34.606,0:27:39.628 So there will be 4 billions in Africa. 0:27:39.640,0:27:45.440 At 2100, and probably the final pin code will be 1145. 0:27:45.978,0:27:49.900 So in 2100 there will be quite a different world. 0:27:49.946,0:27:53.987 The people who live in what I call the old west, 0:27:53.999,0:27:58.666 in west Europe and North America, will by then be less than 10 percent of the world population. 0:27:58.772,0:28:03.464 80 percent of the world population will be living in Asia and Africa. 0:28:03.570,0:28:07.314 But will there be resources enough to sustain them? 0:28:07.700,0:28:13.770 Well, this will be a huge challenge and nothing will come automatically. 0:28:13.877,0:28:21.500 But my take is that it is possible for all these billions to live well together. 0:28:28.763,0:28:36.593 Certainly it's easy to see the potential for a prosperous and peaceful Asia, with 5 billion people. 0:28:36.610,0:28:39.791 Japan, South Korea and others are already rich. 0:28:39.800,0:28:49.446 Following them on the road to wealth, are larger and larger parts of China, India, Indonesia and many other Asian countries. 0:28:49.494,0:28:54.954 Even in poorer Asian countries, more and more are getting a decent life. 0:28:56.780,0:29:02.500 But what about a future Africa, of as much as 4 billion? 0:29:02.700,0:29:07.688 Won’t most of them be living in terrible poverty? 0:29:07.737,0:29:11.716 I have seen extreme poverty in Africa. 0:29:11.750,0:29:19.390 30 years ago I spent the 2 most intense years of my life working as medical doctor 0:29:19.391,0:29:24.806 in one of the poorest countries, Mozambique, on the east coast of Africa. 0:29:24.820,0:29:33.039 Mozambique had just become independent after a long war against the colonial power Portugal. 0:29:33.100,0:29:41.276 My job was to be 1 of 2 doctors, we were both foreigners, for 300,000 people. 0:29:41.300,0:29:47.436 And this was the hospital. My wife was also there working as a midwife. 0:29:47.484,0:29:49.864 This is the entire staff of the hospital. 0:29:49.900,0:29:57.623 Those with white coats had the chance during the colonial period to get a professional training of at least one year. 0:29:57.680,0:30:01.295 The others… many of them couldn’t even read or write. 0:30:01.310,0:30:05.796 But they all worked with such dedication and motivation! 0:30:05.964,0:30:11.956 But the patients came with the worse diseases of extreme poverty 0:30:11.968,0:30:15.195 and our resources were often not enough, 0:30:15.210,0:30:21.962 and especially my skills as a young doctor, did not meet the need of the patients. 0:30:21.963,0:30:25.723 Mozambique is still today a very poor country. 0:30:25.724,0:30:30.595 But things have improved immensely since I was there, 30 years ago. 0:30:36.193,0:30:42.767 For a start, there is now a brand new hospital in the town where I worked 30 years ago. 0:30:44.000,0:30:50.117 The new, much bigger hospital has 15 doctors and 11 of them are Mozambicans. 0:30:50.119,0:30:53.938 All the staff are now well trained. 0:30:55.450,0:31:00.853 The director of the hospital is Dr. Cashimo, the obstetrician. 0:31:02.000,0:31:04.000 Everything indicates that… 0:31:04.300,0:31:06.200 it's going to be… 0:31:06.500,0:31:08.000 twins! 0:31:08.665,0:31:13.031 The transformation here is amazing to me! 0:31:14.000,0:31:16.000 We have accident and emergency… 0:31:16.400,0:31:19.500 and paediatric and orthopaedic surgery 0:31:20.700,0:31:24.600 We have big laboratories and a pharmacy that works 24 hours 0:31:24.800,0:31:31.985 They routinely save women in child birth with cesareans, something that was impossible when I was there. 0:31:34.000,0:31:37.500 Nowadays we can do it here, with a professional team… 0:31:38.000,0:31:45.000 in an operating room equipped as well as anywhere else in the world 0:31:47.973,0:31:51.666 Everything has improved so much. 0:31:51.690,0:31:56.600 Those born in Mozambique today should have a much brighter future! 0:32:00.339,0:32:05.162 Not just because of better health, but a booming economy too 0:32:05.190,0:32:07.545 with busy ports and markets 0:32:07.547,0:32:11.500 and new industries with lots of new jobs. 0:32:15.650,0:32:20.474 I know you might be thinking that this good news is just about cities and towns. 0:32:20.476,0:32:22.142 And it’s true! 0:32:22.144,0:32:26.968 The worse challenge is in the rural areas, where most people live. 0:32:27.268,0:32:30.185 But things are changing here too. 0:32:33.166,0:32:39.062 Deep in rural northern Mozambique lies the district of Mogovolas. 0:32:40.137,0:32:45.300 This is home for Olivia, Andre and their young family. 0:32:46.750,0:32:51.496 Like so many other poor people in the world, Olivia and Andre are farmers. 0:32:51.516,0:32:56.262 reliant on what they grow for what they eat. 0:33:00.036,0:33:04.246 It’s 4 a.m. and the day’s tasks beckon. 0:33:06.769,0:33:09.489 Andre heads straight to the fields. 0:33:09.688,0:33:12.706 Olivia first goes to fetch water. 0:33:12.726,0:33:16.500 Both have to walk miles to get anywhere. 0:33:17.900,0:33:20.500 It takes me two hours to get there 0:33:21.600,0:33:25.800 When it's busy it might take two hours 0:33:28.000,0:33:31.600 When I get back I'm tired and hungry 0:33:33.703,0:33:39.682 With no other means of transport, everything has to be carried. 0:33:42.540,0:33:46.653 Olivia and Andre have 8 children. 0:33:46.680,0:33:50.049 Fertility rates are still high in much of rural Africa. 0:33:50.080,0:33:54.517 And it’s the poorest families who have the most mouths to feed. 0:33:54.854,0:33:59.045 Anything this family can spare, they will sell. 0:33:59.800,0:34:02.000 I'm really struggling 0:34:02.800,0:34:09.600 I plant all kinds of crops but even with all the crops I grow… 0:34:09.800,0:34:17.600 I still don't make enough money to provide for my children 0:34:18.800,0:34:22.699 Yet economic growth is slowly trickling into the countryside. 0:34:23.500,0:34:29.500 I saved up for three years to get this roof for my house 0:34:29.800,0:34:35.451 Now Andre has set his sights on one thing he believes will change everything. 0:34:35.800,0:34:40.400 I desperately need a bicycle. I can't get anywhere without one 0:34:42.342,0:34:47.427 Bicycles can make a huge different to the lives of the rural poor. 0:34:47.467,0:34:51.775 They save hours everyday and get so much more done. 0:34:52.054,0:34:56.304 With a bicycle they can carry much heavier loads to the market. 0:34:56.350,0:34:58.210 and earn more money. 0:34:58.230,0:35:00.286 They can travel to find work 0:35:00.288,0:35:04.108 and if they get sick, they can reach a health clinic in time. 0:35:05.600,0:35:12.800 If I get a bicycle I'll be so happy 0:35:13.200,0:35:17.400 Because a house without bicycle is not a home 0:35:17.682,0:35:24.137 Andre and Olivia have been putting money away for 2 years. They haven’t quite enough yet. 0:35:24.200,0:35:29.261 Everything now depends on the sesame seeds, which they are just harvesting. 0:35:29.300,0:35:34.146 If they get can get a good price, they might just make it. 0:35:36.331,0:35:40.283 Andre and Olivia live in one of the poorest countries. 0:35:40.323,0:35:44.275 And they live in the rural area, which is the poorest part of that country. 0:35:44.434,0:35:50.531 So how many people are there in the world living like them? And how many are there that are poor? 0:35:50.690,0:35:52.974 I’m going to show you this yardstick. 0:35:52.999,0:35:56.429 Very simple. Poor… and … rich. 0:35:56.470,0:35:59.467 Here I have all the 7 billions again. 0:35:59.626,0:36:04.710 They are in a very simplified way, lined up there from the poorest to the richest. 0:36:05.167,0:36:11.323 Now, how much does the richest billion earn here, in dollars per day? 0:36:11.363,0:36:13.000 Let's look here. 0:36:13.091,0:36:14.570 Oh… oohhh… 0:36:14.580,0:36:16.357 It’s coming up, it’s coming up…. 0:36:16.400,0:36:17.727 Ooh, yoi-yoi, yoi-yoi... 0:36:17.800,0:36:20.408 I can’t even reach. $100 a day. 0:36:21.077,0:36:26.319 Then let's look at the middle billion. How much do they earn? 0:36:26.350,0:36:30.853 It will come just yet…. Just $10. 0:36:30.955,0:36:35.549 And then I go over here to the poorest billion. How much to they get? 0:36:35.570,0:36:37.897 Well… 0:36:37.950,0:36:40.083 Just $1. 0:36:40.509,0:36:43.240 This is the difference of the world today. 0:36:43.343,0:36:48.400 The economists draw a line, which they call the line for extreme poverty. 0:36:48.450,0:36:49.900 A little above $1. 0:36:50.000,0:36:56.357 That’s when you hardly can have enough food to feed the family, you can not be sure that you have food all days. 0:36:56.558,0:36:58.595 1 billion is clearly below that still. 0:36:58.635,0:37:02.672 and second billion is sort of divided by that line. 0:37:02.874,0:37:05.263 And then the others are above it. 0:37:05.600,0:37:10.202 The poorest people can hardly afford to buy shoes. 0:37:10.220,0:37:14.979 and when they get shoes… the next thing they will save for is bicycle. 0:37:14.999,0:37:17.327 This is where Andre and Olivia are. 0:37:17.350,0:37:20.600 And after bicycle, you will go for the motorbike. 0:37:20.610,0:37:24.486 And then after the motorbike, it’s the car. 0:37:24.572,0:37:29.425 And I remember when my family got the first car, it was a small grey Volkswagen. 0:37:29.511,0:37:35.255 The first thing we did was to go to Norway on holiday, because Norway is so much more beautiful than Sweden. 0:37:35.310,0:37:39.089 It was a fantastic trip! 0:37:39.175,0:37:45.052 And now I’m in this group. I can go like the richest billion, we can go on holiday by airplanes. 0:37:45.057,0:37:48.452 Of course there are people who are much richer than the airplane people. 0:37:48.538,0:37:54.929 Some are so rich that they are even contemplating that they should go as tourists out into space. 0:37:54.935,0:37:59.999 And the difference in income from the airplane people to the very richest over there 0:38:00.010,0:38:05.019 is almost as big as it is from the airplane people here 0:38:05.030,0:38:08.095 all the way down to the poorest in that side. 0:38:08.200,0:38:13.925 Now, the most important to remember from this yardstick is this 0:38:13.963,0:38:18.135 To show you this I need my stepladder. 0:38:18.335,0:38:22.999 Sometimes you need some old well functioning technology also. 0:38:23.274,0:38:26.250 Here. 0:38:29.023,0:38:33.114 I can only reach up… Here they are, now I am at the top. 0:38:33.152,0:38:39.834 The problem for us living on $100 a day is that when we look down 0:38:39.953,0:38:44.773 on those who have $10 or $1 they look equally poor. 0:38:44.900,0:38:46.800 We can’t see the difference. 0:38:46.850,0:38:50.767 It looks as if everyone is living on the same amount of money. 0:38:50.802,0:38:52.710 And they say "oh, they are all poor". 0:38:52.826,0:38:59.592 No, I can assure you, because I’ve met and talked with people who live down here 0:38:59.708,0:39:04.693 and I can assure you that the people down here 0:39:04.700,0:39:10.999 they know very well how much better life would be if they would move from $1 to $10 0:39:11.000,0:39:13.147 10 times as much income. 0:39:13.148,0:39:16.594 This is a huge difference. 0:39:16.620,0:39:22.667 To understand this, this is what Olivia and Andre are trying to do now. 0:39:22.741,0:39:27.162 Each little step they take along this line here 0:39:27.200,0:39:30.362 from the shoes towards the bicycle 0:39:30.390,0:39:36.435 small as it may seem from far distance, make a huge difference in their life. 0:39:36.550,0:39:46.152 And if Andre and Olivia would get that bicycle it would speed them along to better life and better wealth up in this end. 0:39:47.356,0:39:53.900 Today, Andre and Olivia are preparing to sell the sesame crop they’ve been growing for many months. 0:39:54.500,0:39:58.200 The price used to be 25 Meticais 0:39:58.600,0:40:01.500 This year it's better 0:40:02.000,0:40:05.300 We hope to sell it for 40-45 Meticais 0:40:05.985,0:40:11.901 But Andre and Olivia will have to be careful if they are to get paid the proper price. 0:40:12.400,0:40:19.800 We've found out that some buyers have been doctoring the scales 0:40:20.100,0:40:25.800 So if we get it weighed ourselves and it's ten kilos… 0:40:26.000,0:40:35.500 … then take it to the buyers, they might tell us it's seven or eight 0:40:36.183,0:40:38.865 Andre is going to do the selling. 0:40:38.936,0:40:44.900 And for the last time, he hopes, he has to get help to transport the crop to market. 0:40:48.005,0:40:51.400 Andre now needs to keep his wits about him. 0:40:53.000,0:40:57.400 Hey, hey my friend. Do the calculations properly! 0:40:57.974,0:41:02.713 The deal is done. And Andre is happy with the price he’s got. 0:41:06.300,0:41:08.800 Now I'm going to spend my money! 0:41:10.354,0:41:15.021 It’s the moment the family have worked so hard for. 0:41:32.974,0:41:37.722 Andre’s journey to market took all morning to walk. 0:41:37.800,0:41:42.661 Now, in less than an hour, he can ride home. 0:41:49.700,0:41:52.000 You bought a bicycle! 0:41:52.300,0:41:54.000 Yes darling, I bought a bicycle! 0:42:02.043,0:42:05.496 The bicycle is put to use at once. 0:42:05.520,0:42:08.399 The children fetch water with it. 0:42:08.440,0:42:11.813 Andre carries more crops to the market 0:42:11.900,0:42:17.724 and, just as importantly, Olivia and Andre can now easily reach their lessons for adults 0:42:17.750,0:42:23.149 so they can learn better maths and how to read and write. 0:42:24.700,0:42:30.700 Now I want to save up to buy a motorbike to carry my wife and children 0:42:32.400,0:42:34.100 That's what I want next 0:42:39.372,0:42:45.741 It’s so great to see Olivia and Andre pedalling their way out of extreme poverty. 0:42:45.850,0:42:49.465 And they use the bicycle to go to literacy classes. 0:42:49.500,0:42:54.647 Education is so important for the progress of people and nations. 0:42:55.249,0:43:00.558 But how many know what has really happened with education in the world? 0:43:00.600,0:43:04.768 Time for the great British ignorance survey again 0:43:04.810,0:43:05.739 Here we go. 0:43:05.774,0:43:11.163 We asked what percent of adults in the world today are literate, can read and write? 0:43:11.685,0:43:17.700 Can I ask the audience? How many guess 20 percent? Hands up. 0:43:18.000,0:43:20.394 40 percent? 0:43:21.700,0:43:23.962 60 percent? 0:43:23.963,0:43:26.923 And 80 percent? Ah, ah, ah. 0:43:27.121,0:43:30.647 This is the result of the British sample. 0:43:35.947,0:43:42.955 By now you can use the result of the British survey to find out what the right answer is, isn’t it? 0:43:43.072,0:43:46.922 Of course, 80 percent is the right answer. 0:43:46.950,0:43:50.808 At least you were clearly better than the British average. 0:43:51.492,0:43:55.300 Yes, 80 percent the population in the world can read and write today. 0:43:55.310,0:43:59.834 Literacy is 80 percent… actually, the last figure is a little higher. 0:43:59.912,0:44:04.530 So if I would have compared that with the chimps again, you know... 0:44:04.542,0:44:08.300 once more you only get random results from the chimps. 0:44:08.340,0:44:12.834 But you get 3 times as many correct answers than you get from the British. 0:44:13.352,0:44:17.125 And now the university people 0:44:17.189,0:44:20.364 Perhaps they know this... oh, even worse. 0:44:20.477,0:44:24.250 What on earth are they teaching at British universities? 0:44:24.282,0:44:31.132 The common view about the world is outdated with several decades. The media has missed to communicate it. 0:44:31.488,0:44:35.423 But perhaps this is because the world is changing so fast. 0:44:35.430,0:44:37.366 Ladies and gentlemen, 0:44:37.398,0:44:41.171 I’m going to give you my all time favourite graph, 0:44:41.190,0:44:48.863 I’m going to show you the history of 200 countries during 200 years in less than 1 minute. 0:44:48.880,0:44:55.179 I have an axis for income. I have an axis for lifespan. 0:44:55.190,0:44:59.551 I start in 1800 and there are all the countries. 0:44:59.580,0:45:04.409 And back in 1800 everyone was down in the poor and sick corner, can you see? 0:45:04.420,0:45:06.595 Low lifespan, little money. 0:45:06.708,0:45:09.186 And here comes the effect of the Industrial Revolution. 0:45:09.200,0:45:15.178 Of course, the countries in West Europe are coming to better wealth, but are not getting much healthier in the beginning 0:45:15.291,0:45:18.822 And those on the colonial domination doesn’t benefit anything in there, 0:45:18.935,0:45:21.170 they remain there in the sick and poor corner. 0:45:21.202,0:45:27.243 And now health is slowly improving here, it’s getting up here and we are coming into the new century. 0:45:27.280,0:45:31.600 And the terrible First World War, and then the economic recession after that. 0:45:31.800,0:45:34.200 And then the Second World War. 0:45:34.500,0:45:36.858 Ooh. And now independence. 0:45:36.900,0:45:41.473 And with independence health is improving faster than it ever did in other countries here. 0:45:41.520,0:45:47.384 And now starts the fast economic catch-up of China and other Latin American countries. 0:45:47.593,0:45:49.003 They come on here you know. 0:45:49.050,0:45:53.213 And India is following there and the African countries are also following. 0:45:53.260,0:45:56.500 It’s an amazing change that has happened in the world. 0:45:56.550,0:46:02.800 You know, in the front here we have now US and UK, but they are not moving so fast any longer. 0:46:02.801,0:46:05.406 The fast movers are here in the middle. 0:46:05.450,0:46:08.968 China is moving very fast to catch up. And Bangladesh... 0:46:09.000,0:46:14.750 Look, Bangladesh is already here, now quite healthy and now starting with fast economic growth. 0:46:15.010,0:46:20.499 And Mozambique… Yes, Mozambique is back there, but they are now moving fast in the right direction. 0:46:20.856,0:46:24.952 But all this I show you are country averages. 0:46:25.066,0:46:29.648 What about people? Have people also got a better life? 0:46:29.681,0:46:34.263 I am now going to show you something which makes me very excited as a statistician. 0:46:34.377,0:46:39.000 I'm going to show you income distribution. The difference between people. 0:46:39.100,0:46:42.359 And to do that I take the bubbles back 50 years 0:46:42.380,0:46:45.354 and then we are going to look only at money. 0:46:45.380,0:46:52.074 And to do that we have to expand and adjust the axis, because the richest is so rich and the poorest is so poor, 0:46:52.100,0:46:55.231 so this will be a bigger difference than between the countries. 0:46:55.265,0:47:00.332 And now we let the country fall down here. This is the United States, 0:47:00.350,0:47:03.408 and spread to show the range within the country. 0:47:03.450,0:47:06.484 And I take down all the countries in the Americas. 0:47:06.490,0:47:10.370 And now you can see from the richest person to the poorest person. 0:47:10.486,0:47:15.228 And the height here shows you how many there are on each income level. 0:47:15.263,0:47:18.800 And now let’s take down Europe. 0:47:19.000,0:47:22.900 And on top of that I’m going to put Africa. 0:47:23.278,0:47:29.500 And finally, the region with most people, on top of everything, Asia. 0:47:29.990,0:47:36.100 Now, in 1963 the world was constituted by two humps: 0:47:36.144,0:47:40.075 first, the richest hump, it’s like a camel, isn’t it? 0:47:40.111,0:47:44.042 The first hump here with the richest is mainly Europe and the Americas. 0:47:44.060,0:47:49.062 And the poorest hump over here is mainly Asia and Africa. 0:47:49.423,0:47:51.896 And the poverty line was there. 0:47:52.095,0:47:58.086 Can you see how many people there were in extreme poverty 50 years ago? 0:47:58.087,0:48:00.074 And most of them were in Asia. 0:48:00.110,0:48:06.147 And people were saying Asia will never get out of poverty, exactly as some people are still saying about Africa today. 0:48:06.160,0:48:07.928 Now, what has happened? 0:48:07.965,0:48:09.466 I start the world. 0:48:09.503,0:48:15.053 And you can see that many people are born into poverty here, but Asia goes towards higher income 0:48:15.090,0:48:19.101 and 1 billion goes out of extreme poverty this way 0:48:19.300,0:48:24.121 and the whole shape of the world change, and that camel is dead. 0:48:24.150,0:48:27.360 It’s reborn as a dromedary. 0:48:27.640,0:48:30.518 And what you can see here, you know, 0:48:30.636,0:48:36.024 is the variation from the richest, that is most people in the middle, 0:48:36.142,0:48:40.963 and there’s a much smaller proportion of the world now in extreme poverty 0:48:41.000,0:48:46.307 but be careful, it’s still a lot of people: more than 1 billion people in extreme poverty. 0:48:46.668,0:48:52.866 Now the question is: can this ‘move out of extreme poverty’ now continue 0:48:52.867,0:48:57.238 for those in Africa and even for the new billions in Africa? 0:48:59.380,0:49:06.630 I think it’s possible, even probable, that most countries in Africa will rise out of poverty too. 0:49:06.630,0:49:12.298 It will need wise action and huge investment, but it can happen. 0:49:14.427,0:49:19.735 The many countries of Africa are not all advancing at the same pace. 0:49:20.000,0:49:24.350 A few are moving very fast, others are stuck in conflict. 0:49:24.351,0:49:28.722 But most, like Mozambique, are now making steady progress. 0:49:30.910,0:49:35.281 And what about feeding all the new African people in the future? 0:49:35.363,0:49:41.600 Yes, there are shortages today, but there is also much potential here. 0:49:42.002,0:49:49.400 Agricultural yields in Africa are just a fraction of what they could be with better technology. 0:49:53.095,0:49:57.386 And Africa’s rivers are barely tapped for irrigation. 0:49:57.399,0:50:05.483 One day Africa could hum with combine harvesters and tractors and grow food for many more billions. 0:50:05.888,0:50:10.989 And please, don’t imagine it’s just me who thinks Africa can make it. 0:50:10.999,0:50:20.463 The United Nations is about to set itself a new official goal: eliminating extreme poverty within 20 years. 0:50:21.030,0:50:26.698 Everyone understands it’s a huge challenge, but I seriously believe it’s possible. 0:50:27.993,0:50:29.937 Imagine if that would happen. 0:50:30.017,0:50:34.957 Now, what we have seen so far is that the rich end moves... 0:50:34.990,0:50:40.949 and the middle... it moves. But this poorest end is stuck. 0:50:41.919,0:50:46.860 It’s here in extreme poverty we find almost all the illiteracy. 0:50:46.990,0:50:51.394 Here we find high child mortality and still many babies born per woman. 0:50:51.558,0:50:58.927 It’s like extreme poverty reproduces itself if you don’t end it swiftly. 0:50:58.928,0:51:05.200 But Andre and Olivia, and people like that, work so hard to get away from it, 0:51:05.220,0:51:10.992 and if they only can get the right help from their government and from the world at large 0:51:10.999,0:51:18.884 with things like school, health, vaccines, roads, electricity, contraceptives, 0:51:19.015,0:51:25.443 then they will manage, but they will mainly manage by their own hard work. 0:51:25.493,0:51:31.921 Here we go… go on... follow Andre and Olivia across the line, you know. 0:51:31.950,0:51:36.698 It is possible within some decades… Yes! 0:51:36.800,0:51:40.660 But getting out of poverty is just the beginning. 0:51:40.664,0:51:46.333 People want to continue along this line to a good life. 0:51:46.384,0:51:49.225 But what does a good life mean? 0:51:50.756,0:51:57.727 For most people in the world the good life they are striving for will mean more machines and much more use of energy. 0:51:58.043,0:52:06.715 So there’s a problem. Because all this adds to one of the great threats for the future: severe climate change. 0:52:06.950,0:52:11.816 80 percent of the energy the world uses is still fossil fuels, 0:52:11.970,0:52:17.160 and the science shows that the climate may change dramatically in the future 0:52:17.190,0:52:24.800 because of the carbon dioxide emission from continuing to burn all these fossil fuels. 0:52:26.416,0:52:31.281 I’m not the best person to tell you how bad climate change will be 0:52:31.355,0:52:34.358 nor am I a specialist on how to prevent it. 0:52:34.513,0:52:42.212 What I can do is to show you data to make you understand who is the one that emits the carbon dioxide. 0:52:42.250,0:52:44.641 I will show this. 0:52:44.670,0:52:49.350 You remember the yardstick from the poorest billion to the richest billion 0:52:49.411,0:52:53.884 from the one who hardly can afford shoes to the one who flies with airplanes 0:52:53.945,0:53:02.548 Now this shows the total amount of fossil fuel used in the world during one year 0:53:02.690,0:53:05.301 coal, oil and natural gas. 0:53:05.362,0:53:09.187 And it represents more or less the total emission of carbon dioxide. 0:53:09.250,0:53:13.154 Now how much of that is used by the richest billion? 0:53:14.105,0:53:16.150 Half of it. 0:53:16.291,0:53:18.903 Now the second richest billion. 0:53:18.950,0:53:21.332 Half of what’s left. 0:53:21.392,0:53:24.004 And you understand what the third use 0:53:24.226,0:53:28.214 half of what’s left. And the others use hardly anything. 0:53:28.250,0:53:37.687 This are rounded numbers, but it clearly shows that almost all the fossil fuel is used here by the 1, 2, 3 richest billions 0:53:37.688,0:53:40.197 more than 85 percent they use. 0:53:40.200,0:53:47.646 Now the richest billion at least have stopped increasing, but we are yet to see whether they will decrease. 0:53:47.649,0:53:52.909 And in the coming decades it’s the economic growth of these 2 0:53:52.950,0:53:57.443 that will increase the fossil fuel use and the carbon dioxide emission. 0:53:57.527,0:54:03.273 Even if these ones over here come out of extreme poverty and get richer all the way to the motorbike 0:54:03.276,0:54:07.807 that doesn’t contribute much to the emission of carbon dioxide. 0:54:07.810,0:54:15.013 And regarding population growth, most of the additional billions in the next 40 years will be in this group here. 0:54:15.078,0:54:19.999 But still, if you ask people in the richest end they seem to get everything wrong. 0:54:20.017,0:54:24.709 They look down on the world from their very high emission and then they say: 0:54:24.750,0:54:30.296 “Oh, those over there, you cannot live like us, you will destroy the planet”. 0:54:30.866,0:54:37.907 You see, I find the argument from the people here catching up to be much more correct and logic. 0:54:38.072,0:54:42.846 They say: "Huh! Who are you to tell us that we can’t live like you? 0:54:43.335,0:54:48.109 You’d better change first if you want us to do it differently”. 0:54:50.460,0:54:56.125 There are many essentials to having a good life that billions in the world do not yet have. 0:54:56.128,0:55:02.926 Andre’s village and house, and so many like them, don’t even have electricity. 0:55:03.577,0:55:06.893 Mozambique has huge coal reserves 0:55:06.999,0:55:13.937 and if it and the other poorest countries build affordable new power-stations burning coal for electricity and industry 0:55:14.021,0:55:19.767 I don’t think anyone who emits more carbon should interfere. 0:55:19.770,0:55:26.001 Now, I’m going to ask you two questions that I often ask my Swedish students. 0:55:26.247,0:55:31.479 The first one is: how many of you have not travelled by an airplane this year? 0:55:33.615,0:55:35.232 Uh-huh. 0:55:35.477,0:55:39.766 Quite a few can do without flying. So the next question is: 0:55:39.768,0:55:45.982 How many of you have stayed away from washing machines and have hand washed all bedsheets, 0:55:45.984,0:55:48.886 clothes and laundry during the last year? 0:55:50.281,0:55:52.870 I thought so, no one. 0:55:53.034,0:55:59.105 Everyone who can afford to use a washing machine, even the hard core in the environmental movement. 0:55:59.795,0:56:03.437 And I still remember the day when my family got a washing machine. 0:56:03.520,0:56:07.080 It was 1st November 1952. 0:56:07.083,0:56:11.209 Grandma was invited to be the first to load the machine. 0:56:11.455,0:56:15.338 She had hand washed her entire life for a family of 9. 0:56:15.422,0:56:24.002 And when she loaded the machine she sat down on a footstool and she watched the entire programme during one hour. 0:56:24.010,0:56:26.269 She was absolutely mesmerised. 0:56:26.300,0:56:32.018 For my mother it also meant a lot of more free time to do other things. 0:56:32.183,0:56:37.119 She could read books for me, I think that’s what made me a professor. 0:56:37.200,0:56:40.762 No wonder we said thank you steel mill, 0:56:40.800,0:56:45.539 thank you washing powder factory, thank you electrical power station. 0:56:47.566,0:56:49.587 Now... 0:56:49.995,0:56:57.116 When thinking about where all this leave us I have just one little humble advice to you, 0:56:57.120,0:57:00.922 beside everything else: look at the data. 0:57:00.925,0:57:02.865 Look at the facts about the world. 0:57:02.900,0:57:11.042 And you will see where we are today and how we can move forwards with all these billions on our wonderful planet. 0:57:12.342,0:57:16.144 The challenges of extreme poverty have been greatly reduced 0:57:16.145,0:57:21.200 and it’s for the first time in history within our power to end it for good. 0:57:22.625,0:57:27.479 The challenge of population growth is, in fact, already being solved, 0:57:27.563,0:57:31.100 the number of children has stopped growing. 0:57:31.150,0:57:36.687 And for the challenge for climate change, we can still avoid the worst. 0:57:37.125,0:57:44.226 But that requires that the richest, as soon as possible, 0:57:44.250,0:57:51.675 find a way to set their use of resources and energy at a level that, step by step, 0:57:51.690,0:57:57.748 can be shared by 10 billions or 11 billions by the end of this century. 0:57:57.934,0:58:01.230 I’ve never called myself an optimist, 0:58:01.334,0:58:03.983 but I do say I’m a possibilist. 0:58:03.984,0:58:08.193 And I also say the world is much better than many of you think. 0:58:08.459,0:58:11.432 Thank you very much!