[Script Info]
Title: 
[Events]
Format: Layer, Start, End, Style, Name, MarginL, MarginR, MarginV, Effect, Text
Dialogue: 0,0:00:00.00,0:00:13.15,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,{\i1}33c3 pre-roll music{\i0}
Dialogue: 0,0:00:13.16,0:00:15.27,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Herald: Err ...
Dialogue: 0,0:00:15.29,0:00:17.82,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,H: ... a talk would be good, right?
Dialogue: 0,0:00:18.29,0:00:24.53,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,{\i1}applause{\i0}
Dialogue: 0,0:00:26.17,0:00:27.33,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Do you want to give a talk?
Dialogue: 0,0:00:27.34,0:00:31.39,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Toni: Aah, it’s a little early\Nbut I’ll try.
Dialogue: 0,0:00:31.39,0:00:36.36,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Herald: Okay, guys, well, I found someone\Nwho’s willing to give a talk!
Dialogue: 0,0:00:36.43,0:00:41.82,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,{\i1}laughter and applause{\i0}
Dialogue: 0,0:00:42.43,0:00:47.01,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,That is most excellent.\NSo, if you ever asked yourself,
Dialogue: 0,0:00:47.77,0:00:53.12,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,I’ve got this big regime and\NI’m rolling out internet censorship,
Dialogue: 0,0:00:53.12,0:00:56.45,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,what does my economy do?
Dialogue: 0,0:00:56.45,0:00:59.45,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,There are people in here\Nasking that question, right?
Dialogue: 0,0:00:59.45,0:01:02.75,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,There’s always someone at Congress\Nwho’s asking some question.
Dialogue: 0,0:01:02.76,0:01:09.31,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Well, you came to the right place,\Nand as part of her PhD thesis work
Dialogue: 0,0:01:09.32,0:01:15.03,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Toni is going answer that question,\Nhopefully, to a satisfactory point.
Dialogue: 0,0:01:15.03,0:01:17.57,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Please give a warm round of applause!\N{\i1}applause{\i0}
Dialogue: 0,0:01:17.58,0:01:24.18,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Toni!\N{\i1}ongoing applause{\i0}
Dialogue: 0,0:01:24.18,0:01:27.52,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Toni: Okay, thanks everyone for being\Nhere, I hope you can all hear me
Dialogue: 0,0:01:27.54,0:01:32.59,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,correctly. And I’m glad to be here\Nand to be presenting
Dialogue: 0,0:01:32.59,0:01:36.11,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,some part of my thesis to day.\NNow, this is ongoing work
Dialogue: 0,0:01:36.11,0:01:39.52,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,so I’m really grateful for any kind of feedback\Nthat you guys would have
Dialogue: 0,0:01:39.52,0:01:43.30,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and I’m really only presenting this\Nas kind of a first try,
Dialogue: 0,0:01:43.30,0:01:46.84,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,because when I looked at the topic\Nof internet censorship
Dialogue: 0,0:01:46.84,0:01:51.55,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and what that could mean for an economy,\NI really didn’t find anything academic
Dialogue: 0,0:01:51.55,0:01:56.28,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and I was quite surprised: it seemed\Nlike a very obvious question to me,
Dialogue: 0,0:01:56.28,0:02:00.98,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,because I was looking mostly\Nat China at the beginning.
Dialogue: 0,0:02:00.98,0:02:04.74,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And I read a lot of newspaper articles\Nand I talked to a lot of businessmen
Dialogue: 0,0:02:04.74,0:02:08.06,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,who told me: “Well, doing business\Nin China is very difficult”
Dialogue: 0,0:02:08.06,0:02:11.02,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and I think China is really\Nholding itself back by having
Dialogue: 0,0:02:11.02,0:02:15.40,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,this big censorship thing going.
Dialogue: 0,0:02:15.40,0:02:20.67,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,But no one really looked into\Nhow it is holding itself back
Dialogue: 0,0:02:20.67,0:02:23.86,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,or if it is even holding itself back.
Dialogue: 0,0:02:23.86,0:02:26.94,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So there is really\Nvery, very little research.
Dialogue: 0,0:02:26.94,0:02:32.05,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And we don’t even have an agreement among\Neconomists or business studies people
Dialogue: 0,0:02:32.05,0:02:36.42,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,about what impact the internet has\Non the economy. So if you want to ask:
Dialogue: 0,0:02:36.42,0:02:39.89,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,“So what does internet censorship do\Nto an economy?” it seems pretty obvious
Dialogue: 0,0:02:39.89,0:02:44.83,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,to first ask: “What does the internet do to\Nan economy?” and we don’t even know that.
Dialogue: 0,0:02:44.83,0:02:47.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,That was quite surprising to me and I’m\Ngoing to be talking about the reasons
Dialogue: 0,0:02:47.99,0:02:53.31,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,for that a little bit later on. But in\Ngeneral, I was thinking of a research
Dialogue: 0,0:02:53.31,0:02:58.46,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,question to ask which for me is: “Does\Ninternet censorship reduce economic welfare?”
Dialogue: 0,0:02:58.46,0:03:03.03,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Now, not all of you are economists,\Nso some of you might think of welfare
Dialogue: 0,0:03:03.03,0:03:08.20,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,more as the transfer payments\Nthat a state gives to its poorer people.
Dialogue: 0,0:03:08.20,0:03:12.80,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,But for economists, economic welfare\Nis defined as the consumer
Dialogue: 0,0:03:12.80,0:03:18.13,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and producer surplus. So basically, the\Ndifference between what something costs
Dialogue: 0,0:03:18.13,0:03:21.76,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and what you can sell it for\Nis the producer surplus.
Dialogue: 0,0:03:21.76,0:03:25.16,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,The difference between\Nwhat you would be willing to pay
Dialogue: 0,0:03:25.16,0:03:28.25,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and what you’re actually paying\Nis your consumer surplus.
Dialogue: 0,0:03:28.25,0:03:32.36,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Now let’s assume I have a laptop\Nand I bought this.
Dialogue: 0,0:03:32.36,0:03:35.91,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And I would have been willing to pay\N€ 1500 for this laptop because
Dialogue: 0,0:03:35.91,0:03:39.86,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,I think it’s a very good product,\Nit’s by Lenovo that makes good laptops.
Dialogue: 0,0:03:39.86,0:03:44.26,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,But actually I got it for like €800\Nor €900. That would mean
Dialogue: 0,0:03:44.26,0:03:49.41,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,my personal consumer surplus\Nis something like €600 or €700.
Dialogue: 0,0:03:49.41,0:03:52.91,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And if we add up everyone’s\Nindividual consumer surplus
Dialogue: 0,0:03:52.91,0:03:58.84,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,we get the economic welfare surplus.
Dialogue: 0,0:03:58.84,0:04:02.66,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So first, I was trying to figure out\Nwhat does the internet mean
Dialogue: 0,0:04:02.66,0:04:07.63,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,for the economy. And I’ve said that there\Nis really no good agreement on that.
Dialogue: 0,0:04:07.63,0:04:12.33,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Now, a very crude measure that I found is\Nhow much does "the Internet economy"
Dialogue: 0,0:04:12.33,0:04:17.78,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,contribute to GDP?\NNow, what is "the internet economy"?
Dialogue: 0,0:04:17.78,0:04:22.28,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,It wasn’t very clear in the research\Nthat I’ve read. It seems to be sort of
Dialogue: 0,0:04:22.28,0:04:27.62,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,online retail, and possibly some other\Ninternet-enabled services?
Dialogue: 0,0:04:27.62,0:04:31.13,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Possibly but not necessarily\Ninternet advertisement revenue
Dialogue: 0,0:04:31.13,0:04:36.14,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,is reflected in this. But because it was\NBCG, which is a big consulting agency
Dialogue: 0,0:04:36.14,0:04:40.87,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that basically published this research\Nthey weren’t very diligent about
Dialogue: 0,0:04:40.87,0:04:45.67,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,their methods, basically.\NSo we can see, well it seems that the UK
Dialogue: 0,0:04:45.67,0:04:49.72,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,has a pretty big part of internet economy\Nas part of GDP.
Dialogue: 0,0:04:49.72,0:04:53.76,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,That’s probably mostly because of\Nonline retail which is bigger in the UK
Dialogue: 0,0:04:53.76,0:04:57.31,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,than in most other countries we look at.\NAnd we see that there is
Dialogue: 0,0:04:57.31,0:05:01.68,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,a small difference between\Ndeveloped and developing market averages
Dialogue: 0,0:05:01.68,0:05:06.98,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,when looking only at the G20 countries.\NBut this seems like a very
Dialogue: 0,0:05:06.98,0:05:10.33,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,dissatisfactory answer because first\Nof all, I don’t know the methods,
Dialogue: 0,0:05:10.33,0:05:12.87,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,so I can’t really say\Nwhether this is actually good.
Dialogue: 0,0:05:12.87,0:05:16.35,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And secondly, GDP is actually\Nnot a good measure
Dialogue: 0,0:05:16.35,0:05:20.49,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,for what we are trying to measure because\Na lot of the stuff that the internet creates,
Dialogue: 0,0:05:20.49,0:05:25.83,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,a lot of the value the internet creates\Nisn’t captured by GDP at all.
Dialogue: 0,0:05:25.83,0:05:30.31,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,One example is free online courses.\NMost of the online courses you can take
Dialogue: 0,0:05:30.31,0:05:34.29,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,on the web are actually free.\NAnd most of them are not ad-enabled.
Dialogue: 0,0:05:34.29,0:05:40.69,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So most of them don’t really have\Nadvertisements in the general sense.
Dialogue: 0,0:05:40.69,0:05:46.38,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So classical economics basically says:\N“Well, they don’t really create any value.”
Dialogue: 0,0:05:46.38,0:05:48.65,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,But if you’ve ever taken\None of these online courses,
Dialogue: 0,0:05:48.65,0:05:51.38,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and maybe you’ve been lucky\Nand took a good one
Dialogue: 0,0:05:51.38,0:05:54.10,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,you would actually… I would say that\Nsome of the courses I took,
Dialogue: 0,0:05:54.10,0:05:57.78,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,they created some value for me.\NSo one of the ways to look at this
Dialogue: 0,0:05:57.78,0:06:02.66,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,is actually to think about time as\Nsomething that has opportunity cost.
Dialogue: 0,0:06:02.66,0:06:06.18,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So if I’m spending my time doing this\Nonline course I’m not spending it
Dialogue: 0,0:06:06.18,0:06:11.03,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,e.g. earning money. I’m also not\Nspending it doing something leisurely
Dialogue: 0,0:06:11.03,0:06:17.75,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that is fun for me.\NAnd these guys, Brynjolfsson
Dialogue: 0,0:06:17.75,0:06:21.05,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,– I’m sorry I don’t know\Nhow to pronounce it exactly,
Dialogue: 0,0:06:21.05,0:06:26.11,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,he sounds Swedish, possibly –\Nand ohh, in 2012
Dialogue: 0,0:06:26.11,0:06:33.02,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,they tried to get an idea of\Nhow much consumer surplus
Dialogue: 0,0:06:33.02,0:06:38.95,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,these online courses actually create.\NWhich isn’t at all
Dialogue: 0,0:06:38.95,0:06:44.36,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,reflected in the GDP.\NAnd you see that in some models
Dialogue: 0,0:06:44.36,0:06:49.55,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,it would be 5% of GDP\Nfor these online courses alone.
Dialogue: 0,0:06:49.55,0:06:56.75,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Even if we take their more... most conservative\Nmodel which is $4.18 billion
Dialogue: 0,0:06:56.75,0:06:59.73,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,on average for the years 2008-2011,
Dialogue: 0,0:06:59.73,0:07:03.89,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that’s still a pretty significant chunk\Nof economic welfare
Dialogue: 0,0:07:03.89,0:07:07.78,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that’s somehow being created\Nthat is not reflected in GDP
Dialogue: 0,0:07:07.78,0:07:11.77,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,because GDP is only stuff\Nthat you actually pay money for.
Dialogue: 0,0:07:11.77,0:07:14.92,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Another example that we\Nmight think of is Wikipedia.
Dialogue: 0,0:07:14.92,0:07:19.16,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Now Wikipedia has a certain cost of\Noperating: obviously the servers and stuff.
Dialogue: 0,0:07:19.16,0:07:22.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,But because most people contributing\Nto Wikipedia are actually volunteers
Dialogue: 0,0:07:22.99,0:07:25.91,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,the cost of operating\Ndoes not really reflect
Dialogue: 0,0:07:25.91,0:07:30.25,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,the true value Wikipedia creates.\NAnd one of the…
Dialogue: 0,0:07:30.25,0:07:32.86,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,even if you don’t want to say…\Neven if you don’t agree
Dialogue: 0,0:07:32.86,0:07:37.40,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that time has opportunity cost, what\Nabout the money that you don’t spend
Dialogue: 0,0:07:37.40,0:07:43.80,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,on encyclopedias? How many of you guys\Nhave encyclopedias at home?
Dialogue: 0,0:07:43.80,0:07:46.21,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,OK, that’s more than I expected!
Dialogue: 0,0:07:46.21,0:07:49.26,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,How many of you guys have\Nrecent encyclopedias at home?
Dialogue: 0,0:07:49.26,0:07:53.58,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,That’s a little less, this is kind of more\Nwhat I was expecting.
Dialogue: 0,0:07:53.58,0:07:57.88,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And now, my family also… we also have\Nan encyclopedia at home.
Dialogue: 0,0:07:57.88,0:08:02.72,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,I think it’s from 1985 or something.\NAnd before this encyclopedia
Dialogue: 0,0:08:02.72,0:08:06.21,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,we would regularly update an encyclopedia,\Nwe would regularly go out and buy
Dialogue: 0,0:08:06.21,0:08:09.84,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,a new encyclopedia because\Nknowledge changed, obviously.
Dialogue: 0,0:08:09.84,0:08:14.41,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,But ever since probably 1990,\Nwe just didn’t bother.
Dialogue: 0,0:08:14.41,0:08:20.63,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So, assuming an encyclopedia might,\Nlike a physical book, might cost €100.
Dialogue: 0,0:08:20.63,0:08:24.40,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And assuming sort of 2/3\Nof all households in Germany
Dialogue: 0,0:08:24.40,0:08:28.10,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,have had an encyclopedia at one point.
Dialogue: 0,0:08:28.10,0:08:31.71,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,We’re looking at 13 million households\Nat this point.
Dialogue: 0,0:08:31.71,0:08:35.63,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Now you don’t buy an encyclopedia\Nevery year but you might buy it
Dialogue: 0,0:08:35.63,0:08:40.68,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,every ten years. So in order to simplify\Nthis we can say, every year
Dialogue: 0,0:08:40.68,0:08:46.01,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,1.3 million households buy\Nan encyclopedia on average.
Dialogue: 0,0:08:46.01,0:08:52.68,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,1.3 million times €100,\Nso we’re at €130 million
Dialogue: 0,0:08:52.68,0:08:57.68,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,of economic welfare, of something that\Npeople were willing to spend money for
Dialogue: 0,0:08:57.68,0:09:01.35,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that they’re not spending money for anymore\Nbecause of Wikipedia, because now that
Dialogue: 0,0:09:01.35,0:09:05.93,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,we have Wikipedia most of the encyclopedias\Naren’t actually useful for us anymore
Dialogue: 0,0:09:05.93,0:09:10.10,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,because the knowledge that we have,\Nthe knowledge that they would have
Dialogue: 0,0:09:10.10,0:09:18.76,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,would be outdated very, very soon and\NWikipedia tends to be more up to date.
Dialogue: 0,0:09:18.76,0:09:23.55,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Well, that was from the consumer’s side.\NBut what about the business side?
Dialogue: 0,0:09:23.55,0:09:29.32,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,There’s a lot of research on whether the\Ninternet actually increases productivity
Dialogue: 0,0:09:29.32,0:09:33.50,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,for businesses or not. Well, I don’t really\Nwant to go into that debate because
Dialogue: 0,0:09:33.50,0:09:38.21,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,it’s a really long tedious debate that is\Nkind of focused on “Well, you did this
Dialogue: 0,0:09:38.21,0:09:42.11,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,method wrong”, or “You did this wrong”,\Nand “Well, I don’t think your argument
Dialogue: 0,0:09:42.11,0:09:47.41,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,makes sense”. So it’s very… I don’t like\Nthis kind of debate. I really like to go
Dialogue: 0,0:09:47.41,0:09:51.72,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,deeper in things. But one of the things\Nthat I found was that a lot of businesses
Dialogue: 0,0:09:51.72,0:09:59.22,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,do rely on the internet by now. Now\Nwe can see on this graph that most firms,
Dialogue: 0,0:09:59.22,0:10:06.20,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,overall about 70% of firms actually\Nuse the email to communicate.
Dialogue: 0,0:10:06.20,0:10:09.55,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Now email obviously only works\Nif you have internet, so they need
Dialogue: 0,0:10:09.55,0:10:16.45,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,some sort of access to internet in order\Nfor their current business model to work.
Dialogue: 0,0:10:16.45,0:10:22.11,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Now this was just some short ideas on\Nsort of what can the internet mean for
Dialogue: 0,0:10:22.11,0:10:26.15,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,the economy. And now I want to talk about\NInternet censorship, just a little bit.
Dialogue: 0,0:10:26.15,0:10:33.62,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Now, I’m not a censorship expert. I’m just\Nsomeone who read a lot of papers about it,
Dialogue: 0,0:10:33.62,0:10:37.66,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and who was very interested in what kind\Nof effects this has beyond sort of
Dialogue: 0,0:10:37.66,0:10:43.89,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,the obvious “people don’t have access\Nto political information”.
Dialogue: 0,0:10:43.89,0:10:47.71,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So first a definition. ‘Internet censorship’\Nis the controller suppression
Dialogue: 0,0:10:47.71,0:10:50.89,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,of what can be accessed, published\Nor viewed on the Internet
Dialogue: 0,0:10:50.89,0:10:55.27,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,enacted by regulators or on their own\Ninitiative. Now, in trying to conceptualize
Dialogue: 0,0:10:55.27,0:10:59.27,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,internet censorship, for me, personally,\Nthere’s two dimensions that are
Dialogue: 0,0:10:59.27,0:11:03.84,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,very important. One is how targeted\Nis this internet censorship?
Dialogue: 0,0:11:03.84,0:11:11.51,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Now, you could, in theory, basically\Nhave internet censorship
Dialogue: 0,0:11:11.51,0:11:15.34,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that is very, very targeted,\Nwhich you see in some cases.
Dialogue: 0,0:11:15.34,0:11:18.73,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Or you can have censorship\Nthat isn’t targeted at all, like in Egypt.
Dialogue: 0,0:11:18.73,0:11:23.56,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,They just decided to close the internet\Ndown, basically, for a day.
Dialogue: 0,0:11:23.56,0:11:28.25,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,That isn’t very targeted censorship,\Nobviously. The other thing to look at
Dialogue: 0,0:11:28.25,0:11:32.98,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,is how widespread is it? So if you are\Na business or if you’re a normal consumer
Dialogue: 0,0:11:32.98,0:11:38.94,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,how probable is it that you would come (?)\Nsomething that’s censored?
Dialogue: 0,0:11:38.94,0:11:43.18,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Now, obviously, if you’re in China it’s\Na lot more probable that you would
Dialogue: 0,0:11:43.18,0:11:47.16,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,try to access something that’s censored\Nthan if you’re in Germany. Even though
Dialogue: 0,0:11:47.16,0:11:52.72,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Germany also does some censorship.\NAnd the way I like to conceptualize it is
Dialogue: 0,0:11:52.72,0:11:58.02,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,to be kind of on a continuum. So I don’t\Nlook… I don’t say “Well, either
Dialogue: 0,0:11:58.02,0:12:01.65,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,there’s censorship or there isn’t\Ncensorship”. What I’m trying to say is
Dialogue: 0,0:12:01.65,0:12:06.93,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,“Censorship has a big spectrum\Nof things that can happen”.
Dialogue: 0,0:12:06.93,0:12:12.81,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,These are some types of Internet censorship\Nthat have different sort of implications.
Dialogue: 0,0:12:12.81,0:12:16.31,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,I don’t want to go through them in detail\Nbecause I think we’ve heard some really
Dialogue: 0,0:12:16.31,0:12:21.54,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,interesting talks on Internet censorship\Nalready. But this is kind of
Dialogue: 0,0:12:21.54,0:12:26.54,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,interesting or important for the model\Nthat I’m trying to build.
Dialogue: 0,0:12:26.54,0:12:30.37,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,But before trying to build my model,\Nfirst some more motivation.
Dialogue: 0,0:12:30.37,0:12:33.98,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,I was trying to look at “is there any\Nevidence that it would have
Dialogue: 0,0:12:33.98,0:12:39.82,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,an economic impact?”. And there actually\Nis a study that’s conducted by sort of
Dialogue: 0,0:12:39.82,0:12:45.82,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,lobbying organizations, so obviously\Nshould be taken with a grain of salt.
Dialogue: 0,0:12:45.82,0:12:50.31,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,But it is quite interesting, and it shows\Nthat there seems to be a correlation
Dialogue: 0,0:12:50.31,0:12:59.50,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,between freedom and how good\Nthe economic impact of internet is.
Dialogue: 0,0:12:59.50,0:13:03.77,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,This is just a simple correlation. You can\Nsee that there’s a really good line
Dialogue: 0,0:13:03.77,0:13:09.92,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,going through it. They did do some\Ncontrolling for GDP per capita, so
Dialogue: 0,0:13:09.92,0:13:16.58,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,for development level. But it still seems\Nquite rudimentary, to be honest.
Dialogue: 0,0:13:16.58,0:13:23.98,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,The data that they use is quite bad\Nbecause it is very, very…
Dialogue: 0,0:13:23.98,0:13:30.29,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,it’s just not finally granular enough, and\Na lot of it is kind of… someone rating…
Dialogue: 0,0:13:30.29,0:13:34.81,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,so “How do you think the economic…”,\N“How do you think Internet
Dialogue: 0,0:13:34.81,0:13:39.70,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,impacts the economy in this country?”\NAnd then this is the data that they use,
Dialogue: 0,0:13:39.70,0:13:48.07,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,to some degree. So it seemed very…\Nit didn’t really seem like a good, final answer.
Dialogue: 0,0:13:48.07,0:13:53.53,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So I’m trying to set up my own model.\NAnd in my model I have a government
Dialogue: 0,0:13:53.53,0:13:57.71,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that chooses the type of censorship. And\Nfor this type of censorship that it chooses
Dialogue: 0,0:13:57.71,0:14:02.51,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,it pays a cost. Because we all know\Ncensorship can be very expensive.
Dialogue: 0,0:14:02.51,0:14:09.71,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And in my model for now the only type of\Nexpenses that I calculate are actual
Dialogue: 0,0:14:09.71,0:14:16.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,manpower and technology expenses. I don’t\Ncalculate reputation expenses at this point.
Dialogue: 0,0:14:16.99,0:14:24.21,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,There is… there are firms in n industries.\NNow this n is kind of not a fixed number
Dialogue: 0,0:14:24.21,0:14:30.63,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,but instead is a number that can fluctuate\Ndepending on the kind of country
Dialogue: 0,0:14:30.63,0:14:37.88,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,I’m trying to model. And these industries\Ndistinguish themselves by their
Dialogue: 0,0:14:37.88,0:14:42.46,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,information intensity, or what I like\Nto call ‘information intensity’. Basically
Dialogue: 0,0:14:42.46,0:14:47.54,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,I look at information as a commodity.\NAnd what I’m trying to decide, or
Dialogue: 0,0:14:47.54,0:14:51.91,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,the way I distinguish different kinds of\Nindustry is how important is information
Dialogue: 0,0:14:51.91,0:14:56.28,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,as a commodity, as opposed to other kinds\Nof commodities that are important
Dialogue: 0,0:14:56.28,0:15:01.16,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,for this industry. So let’s look at\Ninformation intensity equals Zero.
Dialogue: 0,0:15:01.16,0:15:05.26,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Like if we don’t really… if information\Nas a commodity really isn’t important,
Dialogue: 0,0:15:05.26,0:15:09.72,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,especially sort of conveyed information,\Ntransmitted information. We can
Dialogue: 0,0:15:09.72,0:15:14.31,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,think of traditional agriculture. Now\NI know today’s agriculture tends to be
Dialogue: 0,0:15:14.31,0:15:18.86,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,large-scale, and there’s a lot of\Ntechnology involved. But if you look at
Dialogue: 0,0:15:18.86,0:15:24.17,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,very traditional agriculture that we\Nstill might see happening in some parts
Dialogue: 0,0:15:24.17,0:15:30.06,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,of Africa there usually is very, very\Nlittle information transmission involved.
Dialogue: 0,0:15:30.06,0:15:34.07,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And most of the information transmission\Nthat is involved is actually mostly through
Dialogue: 0,0:15:34.07,0:15:40.19,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,word of mouth. So that would be a case of\Ninformation intensity of very close to Zero.
Dialogue: 0,0:15:40.19,0:15:43.79,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And then if we look at information intensity\Nof 1 where basically the internet is
Dialogue: 0,0:15:43.79,0:15:48.76,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,the most… or information is the most\Nimportant commodity. Internet businesses
Dialogue: 0,0:15:48.76,0:15:54.84,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,themselves would… obviously qualify here,\N– sorry – like, let’s look at Facebook
Dialogue: 0,0:15:54.84,0:15:59.90,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and other kinds of businesses like this.\NAnd in between we have sort of industrial
Dialogue: 0,0:15:59.90,0:16:03.34,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,companies in the modern world.\NNow if we’re closer to the Zero end
Dialogue: 0,0:16:03.34,0:16:07.64,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,of the spectrum we might be\Nat 0.2 .. 0.3, something like this,
Dialogue: 0,0:16:07.64,0:16:15.45,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,we might be in traditional garment\Nfactories. They do have information needs,
Dialogue: 0,0:16:15.45,0:16:20.72,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,they get their cuts and stuff from the\NInternet by now, or by email.
Dialogue: 0,0:16:20.72,0:16:25.13,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,But once they have them they basically stay\Nthe same for a couple of weeks or months.
Dialogue: 0,0:16:25.13,0:16:30.41,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So there’s a very low information\Nrequirement. On the other side,
Dialogue: 0,0:16:30.41,0:16:35.100,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,closer to 0.8 or something\Nlike that we have high-tech,
Dialogue: 0,0:16:35.100,0:16:41.22,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,especially software manufacturing,\Nso to speak. Information and being able
Dialogue: 0,0:16:41.22,0:16:44.93,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,to transmit this information is very\Nimportant. Now, in between we might look
Dialogue: 0,0:16:44.93,0:16:51.26,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,at traditional industrial companies\Nlike automobile manufacturing
Dialogue: 0,0:16:51.26,0:16:56.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that might be somewhere in between.\NAnd before the game, or before…
Dialogue: 0,0:16:56.00,0:17:00.16,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,or at the first run of the model\N‘service level’ and ‘globalization level’
Dialogue: 0,0:17:00.16,0:17:05.60,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,are randomly distributed. The information\Nintensity of industries is also kind of
Dialogue: 0,0:17:05.60,0:17:11.80,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,randomly distributed, but not in a true\Nrandom fashion. Because when looking
Dialogue: 0,0:17:11.80,0:17:15.50,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,in the wild, sort of what kind of\Neconomies exist, most of them…
Dialogue: 0,0:17:15.50,0:17:19.20,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,the information intensity of one\Nindustry is kind of correlated with
Dialogue: 0,0:17:19.20,0:17:23.45,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,information intensities of other industries\Nin this country. Like in Germany
Dialogue: 0,0:17:23.45,0:17:29.27,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,we’re very known for a certain type\Nof industry that we have quite a lot of,
Dialogue: 0,0:17:29.27,0:17:35.44,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,which is manufacturing, very high-technology\Nmanufacturing. So we have more industries
Dialogue: 0,0:17:35.44,0:17:40.45,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,in this area but we have less traditional\Nagriculture, for example.
Dialogue: 0,0:17:40.45,0:17:44.67,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So having a true random distribution\Nwouldn’t work. In addition the service level
Dialogue: 0,0:17:44.67,0:17:49.92,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and the globalization level are randomly\Ndistributed as kind of external variables.
Dialogue: 0,0:17:49.92,0:17:55.09,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Obviously, this is a simplification because\NI can’t really start at the beginning like
Dialogue: 0,0:17:55.09,0:17:58.87,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,I can’t say: “Oh well, I’ll start,\NI don’t know, 2000 BC
Dialogue: 0,0:17:58.87,0:18:04.19,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,with a very blank economy, and then\Nsomething happens and something happens
Dialogue: 0,0:18:04.19,0:18:08.32,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and something happens”. That’s just not\Nrealistic. So in order to get a better idea
Dialogue: 0,0:18:08.32,0:18:12.83,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,of what happens with different types of\Neconomies, what I’m doing is I’m running
Dialogue: 0,0:18:12.83,0:18:18.90,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,this game or this model again and again.\NAnd having these random parameters
Dialogue: 0,0:18:18.90,0:18:24.54,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,basically changed everytime.\NSo on average there should be…
Dialogue: 0,0:18:24.54,0:18:29.29,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,there should be usable results.
Dialogue: 0,0:18:29.29,0:18:35.23,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Now what this is actually missing\Nis the consumer as a labourer.
Dialogue: 0,0:18:35.23,0:18:40.09,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So I don’t really have ‘labour’ reflected\Nin here. A more complete model would have
Dialogue: 0,0:18:40.09,0:18:44.08,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that reflected. But it’s not the most\Ninteresting aspect of my model, so
Dialogue: 0,0:18:44.08,0:18:49.94,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,I’m not presenting this here, basically.
Dialogue: 0,0:18:49.94,0:18:56.08,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Now, let’s look at what this would\Nmean for firms. In my model
Dialogue: 0,0:18:56.08,0:18:59.65,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,what kind of things would I expect\Nthinking through it logically which is
Dialogue: 0,0:18:59.65,0:19:04.82,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,always the first step when trying to model\Nsomething. First of all if we have
Dialogue: 0,0:19:04.82,0:19:10.13,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,an information intensity of something\Ngreater than Zero but smaller than One.
Dialogue: 0,0:19:10.13,0:19:14.41,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Because the information intensity being\Nclose to One is kind of a special case
Dialogue: 0,0:19:14.41,0:19:18.52,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that I’ll be talking about later on.\NInternet censorship increases the cost
Dialogue: 0,0:19:18.52,0:19:22.36,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and uncertainty of information.\NAnd of course that is more important
Dialogue: 0,0:19:22.36,0:19:27.85,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,the more important information is\Nfor this certain industry.
Dialogue: 0,0:19:27.85,0:19:33.85,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So for a traditional garment factory\Ninternet censorship might be a lot
Dialogue: 0,0:19:33.85,0:19:41.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,less important than for a semiconductor\Nfactory that has to receive
Dialogue: 0,0:19:41.00,0:19:47.09,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,new blueprints every day or every month\Nor something. The second thing is
Dialogue: 0,0:19:47.09,0:19:51.56,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,the more globalized the economy as a whole\Nis the more costly internet censorship
Dialogue: 0,0:19:51.56,0:19:58.49,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,will be. Similar reasoning.
Dialogue: 0,0:19:58.49,0:20:02.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And another thing for firms is the\Nless focused the censorship
Dialogue: 0,0:20:02.99,0:20:07.64,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,the higher the cost. Now this assumes that\Nthe censorship or the goal of censorship
Dialogue: 0,0:20:07.64,0:20:14.37,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,usually isn’t to turn down firms or to\Nmake sure that firms don’t succeed.
Dialogue: 0,0:20:14.37,0:20:19.82,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So if censorship is very focused\Nfirms tend to be affected less
Dialogue: 0,0:20:19.82,0:20:25.15,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,which makes their associated cost less.\NNow of course we can argue, well,
Dialogue: 0,0:20:25.15,0:20:29.40,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,firms can circumvent censorship, and they\Ncan do that for sure. But it is expensive
Dialogue: 0,0:20:29.40,0:20:35.30,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,to do that. If you’ve ever tried a VPN\Nin China e.g., first, buying the VPN
Dialogue: 0,0:20:35.30,0:20:40.92,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,is expensive. Then, having someone sort of\Nmake sure that the VPN works is expensive,
Dialogue: 0,0:20:40.92,0:20:44.01,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,every couple of months you need to change\Nit because the Chinese Government decides,
Dialogue: 0,0:20:44.01,0:20:52.55,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,well, this VPN shouldn’t work anymore. So\Nit’s a very expensive and uncertain thing,
Dialogue: 0,0:20:52.55,0:20:57.91,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,really. For firms in\N‘information intensity = 1’
Dialogue: 0,0:20:57.91,0:21:02.94,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,it obviously also increases the cost\Nof operating. Some of these firms actually
Dialogue: 0,0:21:02.94,0:21:07.97,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,carry out some censorship for governments.\NWe have seen that happening more recently.
Dialogue: 0,0:21:07.97,0:21:12.57,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,But there might actually be some firms\Nthat have a relative advantage, especially
Dialogue: 0,0:21:12.57,0:21:16.82,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,domestic firms often have a relative\Nadvantage due to the censorship because
Dialogue: 0,0:21:16.82,0:21:20.95,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,they know the regulators better, they know\Nhow to deal with it, they might have
Dialogue: 0,0:21:20.95,0:21:25.04,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,less need to circumvent, actually.\NAnd even if they do need to circumvent
Dialogue: 0,0:21:25.04,0:21:29.54,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,it’s easier for them because\Nthey speak the language etc.
Dialogue: 0,0:21:29.54,0:21:34.09,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,This is actually a special case that I’ll\Nbe talking about a little bit later as well.
Dialogue: 0,0:21:34.09,0:21:38.46,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,For the government – I’ve said\Nthat censorship is costly. But moreover,
Dialogue: 0,0:21:38.46,0:21:43.10,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,the more targeted and accurate censorship\Nis the more manpower and technology intensive
Dialogue: 0,0:21:43.10,0:21:50.39,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,it actually is. This is a finding by\NLeberknight et al. in a research paper.
Dialogue: 0,0:21:50.39,0:21:54.48,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,I think they’re electrical engineers, and\Nthey calculated through different types
Dialogue: 0,0:21:54.48,0:22:00.35,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,of censorships and how expensive it would\Nbe to scale them up. So that is actually
Dialogue: 0,0:22:00.35,0:22:03.48,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,a really interesting finding because\Nit shows that for governments
Dialogue: 0,0:22:03.48,0:22:10.46,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,having sort of less targeted censorship\Nis less costly. But this is the kind of
Dialogue: 0,0:22:10.46,0:22:17.04,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,censorship that is actually most affecting\Nin a negative way to firms,
Dialogue: 0,0:22:17.04,0:22:20.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,in an economy. So that’s kind of not\Na result that we would really want
Dialogue: 0,0:22:20.99,0:22:24.92,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,because the incentives don’t line up in\Nthat way. And economists love to talk
Dialogue: 0,0:22:24.92,0:22:29.17,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,about incentives, obviously. Now for\Nconsumers, they would obviously get
Dialogue: 0,0:22:29.17,0:22:33.09,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,less benefits through the internet, the\Nbenefits that I’ve talked about before.
Dialogue: 0,0:22:33.09,0:22:38.43,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And also businesses often pass on the cost\Nto consumers.
Dialogue: 0,0:22:38.43,0:22:43.35,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Now however, some countries\Nstill benefit from internet censorship.
Dialogue: 0,0:22:43.35,0:22:45.97,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,I’ve talked mostly \Nabout why it’s costly to do it,
Dialogue: 0,0:22:45.97,0:22:48.70,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and I think it is costly in most cases.
Dialogue: 0,0:22:48.70,0:22:53.21,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,But developing countries that start out at\Nlow service and low globalization levels
Dialogue: 0,0:22:53.21,0:22:58.95,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,usually have… in these kind of situations\Ninternet censorship has less of an impact,
Dialogue: 0,0:22:58.95,0:23:04.37,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,less of a negative impact.\NAnd censorship can actually act
Dialogue: 0,0:23:04.37,0:23:08.88,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,as protectionism. In information intensive\Nindustries governments can use this kind
Dialogue: 0,0:23:08.88,0:23:13.65,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,of censorship to push domestic industries\Nand enable catch-up growth. Now there
Dialogue: 0,0:23:13.65,0:23:16.82,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,are a couple of further prerequisites.\NFirst of all, the country needs to be
Dialogue: 0,0:23:16.82,0:23:20.64,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,large enough so that these \Ninformation intensive industries
Dialogue: 0,0:23:20.64,0:23:23.64,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,have a domestic market as well.
Dialogue: 0,0:23:23.64,0:23:27.38,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Obviously. And then also only\Ntargeted censorship can serve as
Dialogue: 0,0:23:27.38,0:23:32.16,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,protectionism. The only other way would be\Nif you decided on a domestic intranet and
Dialogue: 0,0:23:32.16,0:23:38.06,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,basically closed your entire intranet off\Nto the world. Which is kind of difficult.
Dialogue: 0,0:23:38.06,0:23:41.85,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,But what about the long-term effects\Nof that? Would they still be positive
Dialogue: 0,0:23:41.85,0:23:47.67,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,for the government? Now, I’m using\N‘positive’ in a very… sort of something
Dialogue: 0,0:23:47.67,0:23:51.82,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that should be taken with a grain of salt,\Nobviously. And what I did is I looked
Dialogue: 0,0:23:51.82,0:23:57.33,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,at China. Obviously, I’m a China watcher.\NSo I’m really interested in China. And
Dialogue: 0,0:23:57.33,0:24:02.19,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,this is kind of where my interest started.\NAnd I’m really trying to find a framework
Dialogue: 0,0:24:02.19,0:24:07.22,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,where China isn’t the exception but\Ninstead China kind of fits into the model.
Dialogue: 0,0:24:07.22,0:24:13.13,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,What we see is the Chinese government has\Noutsourced much if its censorship to these
Dialogue: 0,0:24:13.13,0:24:19.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,internet companies. Baidu, Sina weibo,\NTencent probably would not exist by now,
Dialogue: 0,0:24:19.00,0:24:24.82,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,actually, if the censorship didn’t exist.\NAnd what we actually see now is that
Dialogue: 0,0:24:24.82,0:24:29.75,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,WeChat e.g. is going global. It has\Nmore functionality than Whatsapp
Dialogue: 0,0:24:29.75,0:24:35.80,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and they’re trying to get out. But as I’ll\Nbe talking about later on a little bit
Dialogue: 0,0:24:35.80,0:24:41.81,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,the censorship is starting to be a problem\Nfor these companies that used to benefit.
Dialogue: 0,0:24:41.81,0:24:46.84,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,There’s some things about Chinese… about\Nthe character of Chinese Internet censorship
Dialogue: 0,0:24:46.84,0:24:54.41,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that is relevant here. But what about\Nthe future? Now first it’s difficult to
Dialogue: 0,0:24:54.41,0:24:58.66,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,innovate with this kind of censorship. And\Nthis kind of insular education that we see
Dialogue: 0,0:24:58.66,0:25:03.45,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,also makes innovation, real innovation,\Nvery difficult. In China e.g. Github
Dialogue: 0,0:25:03.45,0:25:07.63,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,is blocked most of the time. That makes\Nkind of collaborating, especially in
Dialogue: 0,0:25:07.63,0:25:11.73,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,coding environments, very, very hard.\N
Dialogue: 0,0:25:11.73,0:25:14.49,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Second, we see more global internet enabled
Dialogue: 0,0:25:14.49,0:25:20.06,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,supply chains in the world. So if we have\Nthese global Internet-enabled supply chains
Dialogue: 0,0:25:20.06,0:25:25.67,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,having internet censorship turns out to be\Nmore of a disadvantage the more globalized
Dialogue: 0,0:25:25.67,0:25:31.88,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,these supply chains actually become. And\Ninformation becomes the most important
Dialogue: 0,0:25:31.88,0:25:36.23,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,commodity all throughout China. Now this\Nof course also makes Internet censorship
Dialogue: 0,0:25:36.23,0:25:41.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,more costly for the economy. What about\Npossible positives? So what could work
Dialogue: 0,0:25:41.00,0:25:45.50,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,in the Chinese government’s favour? First,\Nthe Chinese intranet is actually pretty
Dialogue: 0,0:25:45.50,0:25:50.43,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,attractive to most people. Most people\Ndon’t try to go outside, even like
Dialogue: 0,0:25:50.43,0:25:55.27,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,they don’t even know that they can’t. They\Njust don’t want to do it. Second, the IoT,
Dialogue: 0,0:25:55.27,0:25:59.43,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,where machines communicate with each other\Ndoesn’t need to be affected because
Dialogue: 0,0:25:59.43,0:26:04.82,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,most of the censorship that we see\Nhappening could be reworked in a way
Dialogue: 0,0:26:04.82,0:26:08.60,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that doesn’t affect machine-to-machine\Ncommunication. And that wouldn’t be
Dialogue: 0,0:26:08.60,0:26:14.04,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,a problem for what the censorship intends\Nto do which is sort of suppress political
Dialogue: 0,0:26:14.04,0:26:20.67,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,opposition. And a third, the government\Nwants an economy more focused on domestic
Dialogue: 0,0:26:20.67,0:26:24.23,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,consumption. So if they want to do this\Nthen censorship might actually be good
Dialogue: 0,0:26:24.23,0:26:30.67,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,for that. Now, for me, what I found out\Nwhen doing this research is first,
Dialogue: 0,0:26:30.67,0:26:34.71,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,standard economic models really aren’t\Nsuited for this kind of question. Because
Dialogue: 0,0:26:34.71,0:26:38.37,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,they tend to use GDP, and I’ve told you\Nwhy GDP really is not a good measure
Dialogue: 0,0:26:38.37,0:26:43.42,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,for that. Second, the next step that\NI’ll be doing is agent-based modeling.
Dialogue: 0,0:26:43.42,0:26:48.91,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,But I would really like to feed my models\Nwith some reliable data. And I can’t
Dialogue: 0,0:26:48.91,0:26:53.40,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,really find any of that. I can find some\Ndata going back a couple of years
Dialogue: 0,0:26:53.40,0:26:57.78,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,on, like, is there censorship, is there\Nno censorship. But I can’t really find any
Dialogue: 0,0:26:57.78,0:27:02.15,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,good data that distinguishes between\Ndifferent types of censorship, which would
Dialogue: 0,0:27:02.15,0:27:06.44,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,be really important for the kind of\Nresearch that I really want to carry out
Dialogue: 0,0:27:06.44,0:27:11.61,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,in the future. Thank you, guys. If you\Nhave questions you can ask now or
Dialogue: 0,0:27:11.61,0:27:15.13,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,you can come to me later, you can\Nof course also send me an e-mail.
Dialogue: 0,0:27:15.13,0:27:18.72,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,I’m always happy to talk about this topic.
Dialogue: 0,0:27:18.72,0:27:27.53,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,{\i1}applause{\i0}
Dialogue: 0,0:27:27.53,0:27:32.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Herald: Thank you very much for this talk.\NWe have six microphones at the floor level
Dialogue: 0,0:27:32.00,0:27:35.66,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,here, so if you have questions we have\Na very brief amount of time.
Dialogue: 0,0:27:35.66,0:27:40.43,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Please line up at the microphones.\NWe have microphone no. 2 over here.
Dialogue: 0,0:27:40.43,0:27:46.48,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Question: I want to mention one thing.\NAlways when talking about China censorship
Dialogue: 0,0:27:46.48,0:27:51.30,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,this censorship applies to China main\Nland. So it’s not Hong Kong and not Taiwan.
Dialogue: 0,0:27:51.30,0:27:51.96,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Toni: Yes.
Dialogue: 0,0:27:51.96,0:27:55.77,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Question: And my question I want \Nto ask is:
Dialogue: 0,0:27:55.77,0:27:59.22,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,What do you think about productivity \Nof work?
Dialogue: 0,0:27:59.22,0:28:05.20,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So e.g. if you shut down Facebook do you\Nthink this would increase working
Dialogue: 0,0:28:05.20,0:28:08.06,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,productivity?\N{\i1}Toni laughs{\i0}
Dialogue: 0,0:28:08.06,0:28:13.01,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,{\i1}applause{\i0}\NToni: That’s a really interesting question,
Dialogue: 0,0:28:13.01,0:28:16.47,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and something that I haven’t seen anywhere\Nin literature. There is a big literature
Dialogue: 0,0:28:16.47,0:28:21.97,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,discussion about what the internet as such\Nmeans for productivity, and that’s
Dialogue: 0,0:28:21.97,0:28:26.82,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,kind of both ways. Now, one of the things\Nto look at is that just because you
Dialogue: 0,0:28:26.82,0:28:31.20,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,shut down Facebook doesn’t mean you\Nshut down any sort of social network.
Dialogue: 0,0:28:31.20,0:28:36.39,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And I do think that if people use Facebook\Nand suddenly aren’t able to use it anymore
Dialogue: 0,0:28:36.39,0:28:40.77,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,they would probably spend their resources\Ntrying to find new ways to access Facebook
Dialogue: 0,0:28:40.77,0:28:48.79,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,which would probably not exactly\Nimprove their productivity.
Dialogue: 0,0:28:48.79,0:28:52.30,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Herald: Next question\Nfrom microphone no. 2.
Dialogue: 0,0:28:52.30,0:28:57.91,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Question: Would it make sense to have\Na model where firms use information
Dialogue: 0,0:28:57.91,0:29:02.48,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,as an input to a production function and\Nthen model censorship as a kind of tax
Dialogue: 0,0:29:02.48,0:29:08.11,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,on that. That will seem like standard new\Nclassical micro-econ one-on-one stuff?
Dialogue: 0,0:29:08.11,0:29:12.39,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Toni: That would make sense. I’ve actually\Nlooked at this. One of the problems with
Dialogue: 0,0:29:12.39,0:29:17.73,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,doing that is that information \Nas a commodity
Dialogue: 0,0:29:17.73,0:29:23.35,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,is very difficult to be used in this new\Nclassical way because you usually assume
Dialogue: 0,0:29:23.35,0:29:28.02,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that everything is kind of friction-less.\NAnd if things are friction-less then
Dialogue: 0,0:29:28.02,0:29:31.62,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,information can’t really be a commodity\Nbecause you assume that information
Dialogue: 0,0:29:31.62,0:29:36.50,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,basically gets transferred immediately,\Nand without any sort of censorship. So
Dialogue: 0,0:29:36.50,0:29:39.59,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,we can talk about this a little bit later.\NMaybe you have some ideas that
Dialogue: 0,0:29:39.59,0:29:43.74,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,I haven’t found yet.\NIt would be interesting.
Dialogue: 0,0:29:43.74,0:29:47.54,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Herald: And the next question,\Nas well, from microphone no. 2.
Dialogue: 0,0:29:47.54,0:29:53.63,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Question: So, going the same direction:\Nfor GDP is rather defined what is
Dialogue: 0,0:29:53.63,0:29:59.43,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,the optimization problem for a government.\NFor your further approaches what would be
Dialogue: 0,0:29:59.43,0:30:05.28,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,the optimization that a government like\NChina does then. If you say e.g. Wikipedia
Dialogue: 0,0:30:05.28,0:30:08.95,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,which leaks out to all over the world but\Nwhat is the government optimizing then?
Dialogue: 0,0:30:08.95,0:30:15.05,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Toni: What I’m looking at is economic welfare\Nas defined as producer and consumer surplus.
Dialogue: 0,0:30:15.05,0:30:22.54,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And I assume that the government’s goal\Nis to optimize economic welfare for both
Dialogue: 0,0:30:22.54,0:30:27.52,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,producers, consumers and also for itself\Nas a producer and as a consumer.
Dialogue: 0,0:30:27.52,0:30:32.24,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Question: So your criticism is more like\Nyou don’t have a good proxy,
Dialogue: 0,0:30:32.24,0:30:33.87,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,using GDP for economic welfare?
Dialogue: 0,0:30:33.87,0:30:36.87,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Toni: Yes, yes.\NOkay. Thank you.
Dialogue: 0,0:30:36.87,0:30:38.37,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Herald: I’m afraid we’re all out of time.
Dialogue: 0,0:30:38.37,0:30:40.35,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Please give a warm round\Nof applause to Toni!
Dialogue: 0,0:30:40.35,0:30:43.69,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,{\i1}applause{\i0}
Dialogue: 0,0:30:43.69,0:30:46.26,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,{\i1}post-roll music{\i0}
Dialogue: 0,0:30:46.26,0:30:50.54,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,{\i1}Subtitles created by c3subtitles.de\Nin the year 2017. Join, and help us!{\i0}