0:00:08.057,0:00:10.100 Tonight, I want to have a conversation 0:00:10.100,0:00:13.520 about this incredible global issue[br]that's at the intersection 0:00:13.520,0:00:16.500 of land use, food, and environment, 0:00:16.500,0:00:18.219 something we can all relate to, 0:00:18.219,0:00:21.000 and what I've been calling[br]"the other inconvenient truth". 0:00:21.000,0:00:23.560 But first, I want to take you[br]on a little journey. 0:00:23.560,0:00:28.199 Let's first visit our planet,[br]but at night and from space. 0:00:28.199,0:00:31.149 This is what our planet looks like[br]from outer space 0:00:31.149,0:00:33.480 at night time, if you were going to[br]take a satellite 0:00:33.480,0:00:35.059 and travel around the planet. 0:00:35.059,0:00:37.470 And the thing you would notice first,[br]of course, 0:00:37.470,0:00:41.600 is how dominant the human presence[br]on our planet is. 0:00:41.600,0:00:44.399 We see cities, we see oil fields, 0:00:44.399,0:00:47.000 you can even make out[br]fishing fleets in the sea. 0:00:47.000,0:00:50.600 We are dominating much[br]of our planet, and mostly 0:00:50.600,0:00:53.500 through the use of energy[br]that we see here at night. 0:00:53.500,0:00:55.899 But let's go back[br]and drop it a little deeper 0:00:55.899,0:00:57.500 and look during the daytime. 0:00:57.500,0:01:01.500 What we see during the day[br]is our landscapes. 0:01:01.500,0:01:05.200 This is part of the Amazon Basin,[br]a place called Rondonia 0:01:05.200,0:01:08.500 in the south center part of[br]the Brazilian Amazon. 0:01:08.500,0:01:11.199 If you look really carefully[br]in the upper right hand corner, 0:01:11.199,0:01:13.500 you're going to see a thin white line, 0:01:13.500,0:01:17.000 which is a road[br]that was built in the 1970s. 0:01:17.000,0:01:20.699 If we come back to the same place in 2001 0:01:20.699,0:01:23.199 what we're going to find[br]is that these roads 0:01:23.199,0:01:26.699 spurred off more roads[br]and more roads after that, 0:01:26.699,0:01:30.000 at the end of which is a small clearing[br]in the rainforest, 0:01:30.000,0:01:32.000 where there are going to be a few cows. 0:01:32.000,0:01:33.799 These cows are used for beef. 0:01:33.799,0:01:36.450 We're going to eat these cows,[br]and these cows are eaten 0:01:36.450,0:01:39.200 basically in South America,[br]in Brazil and Argentina. 0:01:39.200,0:01:41.000 They're not being shipped up here. 0:01:41.000,0:01:43.777 But this kind of fish bone pattern[br]of deforestation 0:01:43.777,0:01:46.240 is something we notice[br]a lot of around the tropics, 0:01:46.240,0:01:48.000 especially in this part of the world. 0:01:48.000,0:01:50.250 If we go a little bit further south 0:01:50.250,0:01:52.000 on our little tour of the world, 0:01:52.000,0:01:54.151 we can go to the Bolivian edge[br]of the Amazon, 0:01:54.151,0:01:56.573 here also in 1975. 0:01:56.573,0:01:58.299 And if you look really carefully, 0:01:58.299,0:02:01.461 there's a thin white line[br]through that kind of seam, 0:02:01.461,0:02:03.200 and there's a lone farmer out there 0:02:03.200,0:02:05.160 in the middle of the primeval jungle. 0:02:05.160,0:02:10.500 Let's come back again a few years later,[br]here in 2003. 0:02:10.500,0:02:13.000 And we'll see that[br]that landscape actually looks 0:02:13.000,0:02:16.320 a lot more like Iowa[br]than it does like a rainforest. 0:02:16.320,0:02:19.300 In fact, what you're seeing here[br]are soybean fields. 0:02:19.300,0:02:21.500 These soybeans are being shipped to Europe 0:02:21.500,0:02:23.660 and to China as animal feed, 0:02:23.660,0:02:26.300 especially after the Mad Cow Disease scare 0:02:26.300,0:02:29.073 about a decade ago,[br]where we don't want to feed animals 0:02:29.073,0:02:31.800 animal protein anymore,[br]because that can transmit disease. 0:02:31.800,0:02:34.450 Instead, we want to feed them[br]more vegetable proteins, 0:02:34.450,0:02:36.299 so soybeans have really exploded, 0:02:36.299,0:02:39.250 showing how trade and globalization 0:02:39.250,0:02:42.000 are really responsible for the connections 0:02:42.000,0:02:43.700 to rainforest and the Amazon. 0:02:43.700,0:02:45.899 An incredibly strange,[br]interconnected world 0:02:45.899,0:02:47.490 that we have today. 0:02:47.490,0:02:49.299 Well, again and again what we find 0:02:49.299,0:02:52.310 as we look around the world[br]in our little tour of the world 0:02:52.310,0:02:55.573 is that landscape after landscape[br]after landscape 0:02:55.573,0:02:57.399 have been cleared and altered 0:02:57.399,0:03:00.500 for growing food and other crops. 0:03:00.500,0:03:03.000 So, one of the questions we've been asking 0:03:03.000,0:03:05.510 is, how much of the world[br]is used to grow food, 0:03:05.510,0:03:07.400 and where is it, exactly? 0:03:07.400,0:03:09.530 And how can we change that[br]into the future, 0:03:09.530,0:03:10.699 and what does it mean? 0:03:10.699,0:03:12.643 Well, our team has been looking at this 0:03:12.643,0:03:14.640 on a global scale using satellite data 0:03:14.640,0:03:17.149 and ground based data[br]kind of to track farming 0:03:17.149,0:03:19.000 at a global scale. 0:03:19.000,0:03:22.000 And this is what we've found,[br]and it's startling. 0:03:22.000,0:03:26.260 This map shows the presence[br]of agriculture on planet Earth. 0:03:26.260,0:03:29.073 The green areas are the areas we use 0:03:29.073,0:03:31.843 to grow crops like wheat,[br]or soybeans, or corn, 0:03:31.843,0:03:33.000 or rice, or whatever. 0:03:33.000,0:03:37.799 That's 16 million square kilometers[br]worth of land. 0:03:37.799,0:03:39.799 If you put it all together in one place, 0:03:39.799,0:03:42.000 it'd be the size of South America. 0:03:42.000,0:03:45.045 The second area in brown[br]is the world's pastures 0:03:45.045,0:03:47.000 and rangelands where our animals live. 0:03:47.000,0:03:50.000 That area is about 30 million[br]square kilometers, 0:03:50.000,0:03:52.000 or about an Africa's worth of land, 0:03:52.000,0:03:55.000 a huge amount of land.[br]And it's the best land, 0:03:55.000,0:03:56.290 of course, is what you see. 0:03:56.290,0:03:58.882 What's left is like the middle[br]of the Sahara Desert, 0:03:58.882,0:04:01.271 or Siberia, or the middle of a rainforest. 0:04:01.271,0:04:04.500 We're using a planet's worth[br]of land already. 0:04:04.500,0:04:06.600 If we look at this carefully, 0:04:06.600,0:04:09.410 we find that about 40 percent[br]of the Earth's land surface 0:04:09.410,0:04:13.400 is devoted to agriculture,[br]and it's 60 times larger 0:04:13.400,0:04:15.500 than all the areas we complain about: 0:04:15.500,0:04:19.000 our suburban sprawl, and our cities[br]where we mostly live. 0:04:19.000,0:04:21.500 Half of humanity lives in cities today, 0:04:21.500,0:04:25.172 but its 60 times larger area[br]is used to grow food. 0:04:25.172,0:04:27.300 So, this is an amazing kind of result, 0:04:27.300,0:04:29.530 and it really shocked us[br]when we looked at that. 0:04:29.530,0:04:32.463 So we're using an enormous amount[br]of land for agriculture, 0:04:32.463,0:04:34.500 but also we're using a lot of water. 0:04:34.500,0:04:37.329 This is a photograph flying into Arizona, 0:04:37.329,0:04:40.271 and when you look at it you're like,[br]what are they growing here? 0:04:40.271,0:04:43.279 It turns out, they're growing lettuce[br]in the middle of the desert 0:04:43.279,0:04:45.000 using water sprayed on top. 0:04:45.000,0:04:46.900 Now, the irony is it's probably sold 0:04:46.900,0:04:49.130 on our supermarket shelves[br]in the Twin Cities. 0:04:49.130,0:04:51.000 But what's really interesting is 0:04:51.000,0:04:53.480 this water's got to come from some place, 0:04:53.480,0:04:56.472 and it comes from here,[br]the Colorado River in North America. 0:04:56.472,0:04:59.512 Well, the Colorado on[br]a typical day in the 1950s - 0:04:59.512,0:05:01.500 this is just, not a flood, not a drought, 0:05:01.500,0:05:04.020 kind of an average day -[br]looks something like this. 0:05:04.020,0:05:07.160 But if we come back today[br]during a normal condition 0:05:07.160,0:05:10.199 to the exact same location,[br]this is what's left. 0:05:10.199,0:05:13.600 The difference is mainly[br]irrigating the desert for food, 0:05:13.600,0:05:15.699 or maybe golf courses in Scottsdale. 0:05:15.699,0:05:17.000 You take your pick. 0:05:17.000,0:05:18.550 Well, this is a lot of water. 0:05:18.550,0:05:22.033 And again, we're mining water[br]and using it to grow food. 0:05:22.033,0:05:25.199 And today, if you travel down[br]further down the Colorado, 0:05:25.199,0:05:28.199 it dries up completely and no longer[br]flows into the ocean. 0:05:28.199,0:05:30.550 We've literally consumed an entire river 0:05:30.550,0:05:33.200 in North America for irrigation. 0:05:33.200,0:05:35.700 Well, that's not even the worst[br]example in the world. 0:05:35.700,0:05:37.979 This probably is, the Aral Sea. 0:05:37.979,0:05:39.899 Now, a lot of you will remember this 0:05:39.899,0:05:41.500 from your geography classes. 0:05:41.500,0:05:44.890 This is in the former Soviet Union[br]between Kazakhstan 0:05:44.890,0:05:47.840 and Uzbekistan, one of the great[br]inland seas of the world. 0:05:47.840,0:05:50.000 But there's kind of a paradox here, 0:05:50.000,0:05:52.339 because it looks like[br]it's surrounded by desert. 0:05:52.339,0:05:53.750 Why is this sea here? 0:05:53.750,0:05:56.500 The reason it's here is because[br]on the right hand side 0:05:56.500,0:05:58.600 you see two little rivers[br]kind of coming down 0:05:58.600,0:06:01.900 through the sand,[br]feeding this basin with water. 0:06:01.900,0:06:04.150 Those rivers are draining snow melt 0:06:04.150,0:06:06.640 from mountains far to the east,[br]where snow melts, 0:06:06.640,0:06:08.500 travels down the river,[br]through the desert, 0:06:08.500,0:06:10.600 and forms the great Aral Sea. 0:06:10.600,0:06:13.483 Well, in the 1950s, the Soviets decided 0:06:13.483,0:06:15.930 to divert that water[br]to irrigate the desert 0:06:15.930,0:06:18.850 to grow cotton, believe it or not,[br]in Kazakhstan, 0:06:18.850,0:06:21.160 to sell cotton[br]to the international markets 0:06:21.160,0:06:23.350 to bring foreign currency[br]into the Soviet Union. 0:06:23.350,0:06:24.960 They really needed the money. 0:06:24.960,0:06:26.859 Well, you can imagine what happens: 0:06:26.859,0:06:30.390 [if] you turn off the water supply[br]to the Aral Sea, what's going to happen? 0:06:30.390,0:06:32.496 Here it is in 1973, 0:06:33.120,0:06:34.726 1986, 0:06:35.537,0:06:37.159 1999, 0:06:38.327,0:06:40.376 2004, 0:06:41.201,0:06:43.500 and about 11 months ago. 0:06:46.020,0:06:47.420 It's pretty extraordinary. 0:06:47.420,0:06:50.289 Now, a lot of us in the audience here[br]live in the Midwest. 0:06:50.289,0:06:52.299 Imagine that was Lake Superior. 0:06:54.214,0:06:55.799 Imagine that was Lake Huron. 0:06:55.799,0:06:58.000 It's an extraordinary change. 0:06:58.000,0:07:00.200 This is not only a change in water 0:07:00.200,0:07:01.700 and where the shoreline is, 0:07:01.700,0:07:04.930 it's a change in the fundamentals[br]of the environment of this region. 0:07:04.930,0:07:06.300 Let's start with this. 0:07:06.300,0:07:08.600 The Soviet Union didn't really[br]have a Sierra Club, 0:07:08.600,0:07:09.750 let's put it that way. 0:07:09.750,0:07:12.869 So what you find at the bottom[br]of the Aral Sea ain't pretty. 0:07:12.869,0:07:14.699 There's a lot of toxic waste, 0:07:14.699,0:07:17.640 a lot of things were dumped there,[br]they're now becoming airborne. 0:07:17.640,0:07:19.219 One of those small islands 0:07:19.219,0:07:21.289 that was remote and impossible to get to 0:07:21.289,0:07:23.600 was a site of Soviet biological[br]weapons testing. 0:07:23.600,0:07:27.100 You can walk there today.[br]Weather patterns have changed: 0:07:27.100,0:07:31.000 19 of the unique 20 fish species[br]found only in the Aral Sea 0:07:31.000,0:07:32.962 are now wiped off the face of the Earth. 0:07:32.962,0:07:36.090 This is an environmental disaster[br]writ large. 0:07:36.090,0:07:37.439 But let's bring it home. 0:07:37.439,0:07:40.090 This is a picture that Al Gore[br]gave me a few years ago 0:07:40.090,0:07:42.220 that he took when he was[br]in the Soviet Union 0:07:42.220,0:07:43.761 a long, long time ago showing 0:07:43.761,0:07:46.100 the fishing fleets of the Aral Sea. 0:07:46.100,0:07:48.299 You see the canal they dug? 0:07:48.299,0:07:50.920 They're so desperate to try[br]to kind of float the boats 0:07:50.920,0:07:53.989 into the remaining pools of water[br]that they finally had to give up, 0:07:53.989,0:07:55.770 because the piers and moorings 0:07:55.770,0:07:58.260 simply couldn't keep up[br]with the retreating shoreline. 0:07:58.260,0:08:00.220 I don't know about you, but I'm terrified 0:08:00.220,0:08:02.240 that future archeologists[br]will dig this up 0:08:02.240,0:08:04.770 and write stories about our time[br]in history and wonder, 0:08:04.770,0:08:05.910 what were you thinking? 0:08:05.910,0:08:08.290 Well, that's the future[br]we have to look forward to. 0:08:08.290,0:08:09.800 We already use about 50 percent 0:08:09.800,0:08:12.229 of the Earth's fresh water[br]that's sustainable, 0:08:12.229,0:08:15.000 and agriculture alone[br]is 70 percent of that. 0:08:15.000,0:08:17.149 So we use a lot of water, 0:08:17.149,0:08:19.070 a lot of land for agriculture - 0:08:19.070,0:08:21.840 we also use a lot of the atmosphere[br]for agriculture. 0:08:21.840,0:08:24.120 Usually when we think[br]about the atmosphere, 0:08:24.120,0:08:26.030 we think about climate change 0:08:26.030,0:08:28.430 and greenhouse gases,[br]and mostly around energy. 0:08:28.430,0:08:30.773 But it turns out, agriculture is one 0:08:30.773,0:08:33.427 of the biggest emitters[br]of greenhouse gases, too. 0:08:33.427,0:08:37.817 If you look at carbon dioxide[br]from burning tropical rainforest, 0:08:37.817,0:08:40.222 or methane coming from cows and rice, 0:08:40.222,0:08:43.484 or nitrous oxide[br]from too many fertilizers, 0:08:43.484,0:08:46.899 it turns out agriculture is 30 percent[br]of the greenhouse gases 0:08:46.899,0:08:49.060 going into the atmosphere[br]from human activity! 0:08:49.060,0:08:51.159 That's more than all our transportation, 0:08:51.159,0:08:52.920 it's more than all our electricity, 0:08:52.920,0:08:55.573 it's more than all other manufacturing,[br]in fact. 0:08:55.573,0:08:58.700 It's the single largest emitter[br]of greenhouse gases 0:08:58.700,0:09:00.750 of any human activity in the world, 0:09:00.750,0:09:03.200 and yet we don't talk about it very much. 0:09:03.200,0:09:06.065 So, we have this incredible presence today 0:09:06.065,0:09:08.220 of agriculture dominating our planet, 0:09:08.220,0:09:11.000 whether it's 40 percent[br]of our land's surface, 0:09:11.000,0:09:13.210 70 percent of the water we use, 0:09:13.210,0:09:15.670 30 percent of our greenhouse[br]gas emissions. 0:09:15.670,0:09:18.500 We've doubled the flows[br]of nitrogen and phosphorus 0:09:18.500,0:09:20.829 around the world simply[br]by using fertilizers, 0:09:20.829,0:09:23.170 causing huge problems of water quality 0:09:23.170,0:09:25.050 from rivers, lakes, and even oceans. 0:09:25.050,0:09:28.765 And it's also the single[br]biggest driver of biodiversity loss. 0:09:28.765,0:09:31.504 So without a doubt, agriculture 0:09:31.504,0:09:35.299 is the single most powerful force[br]unleashed on this planet 0:09:35.299,0:09:37.979 since the end of the Ice Age, no question. 0:09:37.979,0:09:40.399 And it rivals climate change[br]in importance, 0:09:40.399,0:09:43.240 and they're both happening[br]at the same time. 0:09:43.240,0:09:45.600 But what's really important[br]here to remember 0:09:45.600,0:09:47.500 is that it's not all bad. 0:09:47.500,0:09:49.570 It's not that agriculture's a bad thing. 0:09:49.570,0:09:51.529 In fact, we completely depend on it. 0:09:51.529,0:09:53.869 It's not optional, it's not a luxury. 0:09:53.869,0:09:55.399 It's an absolute necessity. 0:09:55.399,0:09:58.200 We have to provide food and feed, and yes, 0:09:58.200,0:09:59.799 fiber, and even biofuels 0:09:59.799,0:10:03.100 to something like seven billion[br]people in the world today. 0:10:03.100,0:10:05.089 And if anything, we're going to have 0:10:05.089,0:10:07.950 the demands on agriculture[br]increase into the future. 0:10:07.950,0:10:09.420 It's not going to go away: 0:10:09.420,0:10:10.960 it's going to get a lot bigger, 0:10:10.960,0:10:12.800 mainly because of growing population. 0:10:12.800,0:10:14.900 We're seven billion people today 0:10:14.900,0:10:16.600 heading towards at least nine, 0:10:16.600,0:10:19.059 probably nine and a half[br]before we're done. 0:10:19.059,0:10:21.680 More importantly, changing diets 0:10:21.680,0:10:25.019 as the world becomes wealthier[br]as well as more populous - 0:10:25.019,0:10:28.000 we're seeing increases in[br]dietary consumption of meat, 0:10:28.000,0:10:31.289 which take a lot more resources[br]than a vegetarian diet does. 0:10:31.289,0:10:35.460 So more people eating[br]more stuff and richer stuff, 0:10:35.460,0:10:38.299 and of course, having an energy[br]crisis at the same time 0:10:38.299,0:10:41.950 where we have to replace[br]oil with other energy sources 0:10:41.950,0:10:43.800 that will ultimately have to include 0:10:43.800,0:10:46.229 some kinds of biofuels[br]and bioenergy sources. 0:10:46.229,0:10:49.200 So, you put these together,[br]it's really hard to see 0:10:49.200,0:10:51.539 how we're going to get[br]to the rest of the century 0:10:51.539,0:10:55.240 without at least doubling global[br]agricultural production. 0:10:55.240,0:10:56.880 Well, how are we going to do this? 0:10:56.880,0:10:58.270 How are we going to double 0:10:58.270,0:11:00.800 global agro production around the world? 0:11:00.800,0:11:03.100 Well, we could try to farm more land: 0:11:03.100,0:11:05.340 this is an analysis we've done[br]where on the left 0:11:05.340,0:11:07.110 is where the crops are today. 0:11:07.110,0:11:09.634 On the right is where they could be, 0:11:09.634,0:11:11.430 based on soils and climate, 0:11:11.430,0:11:14.289 assuming climate change[br]doesn't disrupt too much of this, 0:11:14.289,0:11:16.000 which is not a good assumption. 0:11:16.000,0:11:18.649 We could farm more land,[br]but the problem is, 0:11:18.649,0:11:21.103 the remaining lands[br]are in sensitive areas: 0:11:21.103,0:11:23.719 they have a lot of biodiversity,[br]a lot of carbon, 0:11:23.719,0:11:25.635 things we want to protect. 0:11:25.635,0:11:28.649 So we could grow more food[br]by expanding farmland, 0:11:28.649,0:11:29.800 but we'd better not, 0:11:29.800,0:11:31.609 because it's ecologically a very, 0:11:31.609,0:11:33.079 very dangerous thing to do. 0:11:33.079,0:11:36.899 Instead, we maybe want to freeze[br]the footprint of agriculture 0:11:36.899,0:11:39.399 and farm the lands we have better. 0:11:39.399,0:11:41.079 This is work that we're doing 0:11:41.079,0:11:43.160 to try to highlight places in the world 0:11:43.160,0:11:46.869 where we could improve yields[br]without harming the environment. 0:11:46.869,0:11:49.549 The green areas here[br]show where corn yields 0:11:49.549,0:11:51.380 - just showing corn as an example - 0:11:51.380,0:11:53.741 are already really high,[br]probably the maximum 0:11:53.741,0:11:56.722 you could find on Earth today[br]for that climate and soil. 0:11:56.722,0:11:59.039 But the brown areas and yellow areas 0:11:59.039,0:12:01.760 are places where we're only getting[br]maybe 20 or 30 percent 0:12:01.760,0:12:03.610 of the yield you should be able to get. 0:12:03.610,0:12:06.050 You see a lot of this in Africa,[br]even Latin America, 0:12:06.050,0:12:07.877 but interestingly, Eastern Europe, 0:12:07.877,0:12:10.740 where Soviet Union and Eastern Bloc[br]countries used to be, 0:12:10.740,0:12:12.500 is still a mess, agriculturally. 0:12:12.500,0:12:15.779 Now, this would require[br]nutrients and water. 0:12:15.779,0:12:18.250 It's going to either be organic,[br]or conventional, 0:12:18.250,0:12:20.099 or some mix of the two to deliver that. 0:12:20.099,0:12:22.152 Plants need water and nutrients. 0:12:22.165,0:12:24.319 But we can do this,[br]and there are opportunities 0:12:24.319,0:12:25.500 to make this work. 0:12:25.500,0:12:27.712 But we have to do it[br]in a way that is sensitive 0:12:27.712,0:12:29.994 to meeting the food[br]security needs of the future 0:12:29.994,0:12:32.631 and the environmental[br]security needs of the future. 0:12:32.631,0:12:35.820 We have to figure out[br]how to make this tradeoff 0:12:35.820,0:12:39.500 between growing food and having[br]healthy environment work better. 0:12:39.500,0:12:42.299 Right now, it's kind of[br]all or nothing proposition. 0:12:42.299,0:12:44.140 We can grow food in the background 0:12:44.140,0:12:47.399 - that's a soybean field -[br]and in this flower diagram 0:12:47.399,0:12:49.000 it shows we grow a lot of food, 0:12:49.000,0:12:50.939 but we don't have a lot of clean water, 0:12:50.939,0:12:52.639 we're not storing a lot of carbon, 0:12:52.639,0:12:54.469 we don't have a lot of biodiversity. 0:12:54.469,0:12:56.530 In the foreground, we have this prairie 0:12:56.530,0:12:58.720 that's wonderful[br]from the environmental side, 0:12:58.720,0:13:01.070 but you can't eat anything.[br]What's there to eat? 0:13:01.070,0:13:03.400 We need to figure out[br]how to bring both of those 0:13:03.400,0:13:06.099 together into a new kind of agriculture 0:13:06.099,0:13:07.700 that brings them all together. 0:13:07.700,0:13:10.083 Now, when I talk about this,[br]people often tell me, 0:13:10.083,0:13:13.500 well, isn't - blank - the answer,[br]or organic food, 0:13:13.500,0:13:18.230 local food, GMOs, new trade subsidies,[br]new farmvilles? 0:13:18.230,0:13:20.300 And yes, we have a lot of good ideas here, 0:13:20.300,0:13:23.699 but not any one of these[br]is a silver bullet. 0:13:23.699,0:13:25.280 In fact, what I think they are 0:13:25.280,0:13:27.000 is more like silver buckshot. 0:13:27.000,0:13:28.660 And I love silver buckshot: 0:13:28.660,0:13:31.519 you put it together,[br]and you've got something really powerful. 0:13:31.519,0:13:33.369 But we need to put them together. 0:13:33.369,0:13:35.399 So what we have to do, I think, 0:13:35.399,0:13:37.859 is invent a new kind of agriculture 0:13:37.859,0:13:40.850 that blends the best ideas[br]of commercial agriculture 0:13:40.850,0:13:42.200 in the Green Revolution 0:13:42.200,0:13:45.439 with the best ideas[br]of organic farming and local food, 0:13:45.439,0:13:48.850 and the best ideas[br]of environmental conservation. 0:13:48.850,0:13:50.649 Not to have them fighting each other, 0:13:50.649,0:13:52.750 but to have them collaborating together 0:13:52.750,0:13:54.704 to form a new kind of agriculture, 0:13:54.704,0:13:56.799 something I call terraculture, 0:13:56.799,0:13:59.100 or farming for a whole planet. 0:13:59.100,0:14:01.000 Now, having this kind of conversation 0:14:01.000,0:14:02.400 has been really hard. 0:14:02.400,0:14:05.430 We've been trying very hard[br]to bring these key points to people 0:14:05.430,0:14:08.300 to reduce the controversy[br]and increase the collaboration. 0:14:08.300,0:14:09.960 I'm going to show you a short video 0:14:09.960,0:14:12.160 that does kind of show[br]our efforts right now 0:14:12.160,0:14:14.850 to bring these sides together[br]into a single conversation. 0:14:14.850,0:14:16.649 So let me show you that. 0:14:17.833,0:14:20.899 (Music)[br][Environment.] 0:14:20.899,0:14:23.540 [Institute on the environment –[br]University of Minnesota] 0:14:23.540,0:14:24.759 [Driven to discover] 0:14:24.759,0:14:27.742 [The world population is growing] 0:14:27.742,0:14:29.745 [by 75 million people each year.] 0:14:29.745,0:14:32.579 [That's almost the size of Germany.] 0:14:32.579,0:14:35.299 [Today, we're nearing 7 billion people.] 0:14:35.299,0:14:38.250 [At this rate, we'll reach[br]9 billion people by 2040.] 0:14:38.250,0:14:39.920 [And we all need food.] 0:14:39.920,0:14:41.200 [But how?] 0:14:41.200,0:14:44.399 [How do we feed a growing world[br]without destroying the planet?] 0:14:44.399,0:14:47.262 [We already know climate change[br]is a big problem.] 0:14:47.262,0:14:48.805 [But it's not the only problem.] 0:14:48.805,0:14:51.640 [We need to face[br]“the other inconvenient truth.”:] 0:14:51.640,0:14:54.393 [a global crisis in agriculture.] 0:14:54.393,0:14:58.231 [Population growth, meat consumption,[br]dairy consumption, energy costs] 0:14:58.231,0:15:00.900 [bioenergy production[br]= stress on natural resources.] 0:15:00.900,0:15:04.160 [More than 40% of Earth's land[br]has been cleared for agriculture.] 0:15:04.160,0:15:06.812 [Global croplands cover[br]16 million square kilometers.] 0:15:06.812,0:15:09.250 [That's almost the size of South America.] 0:15:09.250,0:15:11.590 [Global pastures cover[br]30 million square kms.] 0:15:11.590,0:15:13.430 [That's the size of Africa.] 0:15:13.430,0:15:15.832 [Agriculture uses 60 times more land] 0:15:15.832,0:15:18.251 [than urban and suburban areas combined.] 0:15:18.251,0:15:21.545 [Irrigation is the biggest[br]use of water on the planet.] 0:15:21.545,0:15:25.699 [We use 2,800 cube kilometers[br]of water on crops every year.] 0:15:25.699,0:15:29.850 [That's enough to fill 7,305[br]Empire State Buildings every day.] 0:15:29.850,0:15:32.515 [Today, many large rivers[br]have reduced flows.] 0:15:32.515,0:15:34.000 [Some dry up altogether.] 0:15:34.000,0:15:38.500 [Look at the Aral Sea,[br]now turned to desert.] 0:15:38.500,0:15:42.460 [Or the Colorado river,[br]which no longer flows to the ocean.] 0:15:42.460,0:15:44.310 [Fertilizers have more than doubled] 0:15:44.310,0:15:46.400 [the phosphorus and nitrogen[br]in the environment.] 0:15:46.400,0:15:47.299 [The consequence?] 0:15:47.299,0:15:49.329 [Widespread water pollution] 0:15:49.329,0:15:51.799 [and massive degradation[br]of lakes and rivers.] 0:15:51.799,0:15:55.470 [Surprisingly, agriculture is the biggest[br]contributor to climate change:] 0:15:55.470,0:15:58.219 [it generates 30%[br]of greenhouse gas emissions.] 0:15:58.219,0:16:01.350 [That's more than the emission[br]from all electricity and industry.] 0:16:01.350,0:16:04.000 [Or from all the world's planes,[br]trains and automobiles.] 0:16:04.000,0:16:06.820 [Most agricultural emissions[br]come from tropical deforestation,] 0:16:06.820,0:16:08.656 [methane from animals and rice fields] 0:16:08.656,0:16:10.570 [and nitrous oxide from over-fertilizing.] 0:16:10.570,0:16:13.860 [There is nothing we do that transforms[br]the world more than agriculture.] 0:16:13.860,0:16:16.939 [And there's nothing we do that is more[br]crucial to our survival.] 0:16:16.939,0:16:18.280 [Here's the dilemma...] 0:16:18.280,0:16:22.000 [as the world grows[br]by several billion more people,] 0:16:22.000,0:16:26.530 [we'll need to double, maybe even triple,[br]global food production.] 0:16:26.530,0:16:28.199 [So where do we go from here?] 0:16:28.199,0:16:31.050 [We need a bigger conversation,[br]an international dialogue.] 0:16:31.050,0:16:32.980 [We need to invest in real solutions:] 0:16:32.980,0:16:35.230 [incentives for farmers -[br]precision agriculture -] 0:16:35.230,0:16:37.039 [new crop varieties - drip irrigation] 0:16:37.039,0:16:40.500 [gray water recycling[br]- better tillage practices- smarter diets] 0:16:40.500,0:16:43.130 [We need everyone at the table:] 0:16:43.130,0:16:45.049 [advocates of commercial agriculture,] 0:16:45.049,0:16:46.590 [environmental conservation,] 0:16:46.590,0:16:47.756 [and organic farming...] 0:16:47.756,0:16:49.930 [must work together.] 0:16:49.930,0:16:51.564 [There is no single solution:] 0:16:51.564,0:16:52.864 [we need collaboration,] 0:16:52.864,0:16:54.030 [imagination,] 0:16:54.030,0:16:54.950 [determination.] 0:16:54.950,0:16:57.392 [Because failure is not an option.] 0:16:59.240,0:17:02.313 [How do we feed the world[br]without destroying it?] 0:17:02.313,0:17:03.820 Jonathan Foley:[br]And so, we face 0:17:03.820,0:17:05.500 one of the greatest grand challenges 0:17:05.500,0:17:07.400 in all of human history today: 0:17:07.400,0:17:09.880 the need to feed nine billion people 0:17:09.880,0:17:13.699 and do so sustainably[br]and equitably and justly. 0:17:13.699,0:17:16.000 At the same time, protecting our planet 0:17:16.000,0:17:18.000 for this and future generations. 0:17:18.000,0:17:20.210 This is going to be one[br]of the hardest things 0:17:20.210,0:17:21.869 we ever have done in human history, 0:17:21.869,0:17:25.000 and we absolutely have to get it right. 0:17:25.000,0:17:29.500 And we have to get it right[br]on our first and only try. 0:17:29.500,0:17:32.000 So, thanks very much. 0:17:32.000,0:17:35.000 (Applause)