[Script Info]
Title: 
[Events]
Format: Layer, Start, End, Style, Name, MarginL, MarginR, MarginV, Effect, Text
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,(Male announcer) Thank you for downloading from the BBC.
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Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,(Female announcer) Governments worldwide battle to control and contain terrorism.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Police and the courts struggle to separate harmless loners from dangerous lone wolves.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Opinions differ on the most effective way to combat terrorist attacks,
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,from military interventions on the ground, to curbing political and religious radicalisation.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,But in this edition of Discovery, we'll be hearing about a more unusual new weapon
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that might be used in the future to fight terrorism:
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,maths (1:00)
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,(A) We were looking at the data in a new way, we were\Nusing tools that were somewhat foreign,
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,(A) these were tools that came out of physics\Nand complex systems, not tools that necessarily came out of the political science community.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,(A) And we were saying things that were kind of weird.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,(B) One thinks of terrorism as something very random, \Nsomething so strange that it must be done in a very\Nchaotic way.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,(B) But of course, in the end, it is an activity, it's a\Nhuman activity, so it's quite interesting then that the\Npatterns that you seen in the events are not random.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,(A) For terrorism, that had somewhat shocking implications.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,(A)If you understand the frequencies of the small \Nevents, you can extrapolate,
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,(A) and then make a forecast out into the future, \Nabout what the probability should be
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,(A) for a very large event.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,(HF) So, could maths predict the next 9/11?
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,(HF) You're listening to the BBC World Service, and today\Non Discovery, I'll be looking at the hidden mathematical\Npattern that is being discovered in global terrorism;
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,(HF) a pattern that lies behind a host of diverse phenomena,\Nfrom economics to earthquakes.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,(HF) I'm Dr Hannah Fry, and I'm a mathematician from\NUniversity College London, working on complex systems.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,(HF) These are systems, like terrorism, which at first seem\Ncomplex, and random
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,(HF) but if you stand back and study the bigger picture, then\Na surprising number of patterns can appear;
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,(HF) patterns which you can describe using mathematics.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,(HF) Dr (?), a computer scientist at the University of\NColorado, was one of the first to find a tangible,\Nmathematical connection underlying terrorism.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,(HF) He looked at 30,000 terror attacks worldwide, over\N40 years
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,(HF) and for all of the events, he counted how many times a\Ncertain number of people were killed, and plotted it on a graph\N
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,(HF) and the results were remarkable.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,(Dr) This initial analysis we did, it was quite shocking,\Nwe found this thing that looked like
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,(Dr) what's called a power law distribution, which is a \Nvery special kind of mathematical pattern that usually
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,(Dr) crops up in physics, in fact, but increasingly is \Nobserved in social and biological systems,
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,(Dr) and this is somewhat surprising, because when we \Nthink about terrorism,
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,(Dr) we think mainly about the capricious, highly \Ncontextualised nature of the individual actors
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,(Dr) that carry out these events,
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,(Dr) and yet, at the global level, we see this remarkable\Npattern, this power law pattern, emerge.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,(HF) So it's obviously a bit tricky to describe a graph\Non the radio. (Dr) [Laughs] Yes.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,(HF) but could you give us an idea of what a power law\Nlooks like,
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,(HF) perhaps, compared to some other distributions that\Npeople might be familiar with?
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,(Dr) So a power law distribution is very different from\N
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,(Dr) what most of us experience, and our intuition \Nis built around, as human beings.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,(Dr) Most of our world is wrapped up in what are called\NGaussian, or normal, distributions.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,(Dr) So, the range of heights that we experience\Namong other humans,
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,(Dr) has what's called a normal distribution.\N(HF) Like a bell curve.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,(Dr) [Confirming] Like a bell curve. Which means that\Nthere's an average,
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,(Dr) that is representative of essentially the entire population.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,(NJ) One of the first graphs that we ever draw in\Nschool is one of heights of people in the classroom.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,(HF) Neil Johnson, professor of Physics at the\NUniversity of Miami.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,(NJ) There's usually some great big peak, and there's a\Nlittle bit of spreading either side of the peak,
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,(NJ) Might be something like, you know, for adults,\N5 foot 6 or something like this,
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,(NJ) that's the average, and of course people have wide\Nvariation; basketball players, and there's also
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,(NJ) people who are much shorter, but nobody's a foot\Ntall in the adult population, and nobody's 20 feet tall.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,(NJ) Well, that's not how it works for the severity of\Nattacks.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,(NJ) You might {\i1}think{\i0} it would have, you know, in an\Nattack, people use an explosive device.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,(NJ) You might {\i1}think{\i0} it blows up a typical number of\Npeople, you know, plus or minus 3.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,(NJ) But no, it's a completely different distribution.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,(NJ) It is the equivalent of having the 20 foot person,\Nand the 1 foot person happening pretty frequently.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,(HF) A power law curve looks like the downward slope\Nof a hill.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,(HF) At the top left, you have a large number of small\Nattacks that kill a few people,
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,(HF) and at the bottom right, you have a tiny number of events that are very severe,
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,(HF) with hundreds, or thousands of deaths.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,(HF) Behind this graph lies a very simple equation,\Nproviding a clear mathematical link
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,(HF) between smalll, frequent attacks, and rare,\Nlarge-scale strikes.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,(HF) Now this shape has been found time and time\Nagain, over different decades, in different cities,
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,(HF) and for different terrorist groups.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,(HF) And despite huge changes in global geopolitics,
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,(HF) from the fall of the Soviet Union to the rise of\NIslamic extremism,
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,(HF) this simple mathematical pattern has persisted.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,(Dr) The remarkable thing about the power law\Ndistribution in the sizes of terrorist events,
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,(Dr) is that it seems to be very robust, so it suggests that\Nthis may be a fundamental pattern,
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,(Dr) it may be that the nature of the modern world\Nproduces this pattern,
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,(Dr) so from a policy perspective, there is an\Nimplication that changing this pattern,
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,(Dr) being able to reduce the likelihood of a large\Nterrorist even like 9/11 happening again
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,(Dr) may be not as simple as finding the terrorists and\Nthrowing them in jail.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,(Dr) It may be more subtle, it may be that the nature of\Nthe global system
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,(Dr) tends to produce the types of individuals that would then go about carrying out
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,(Dr) these kinds of events.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,(Dr) And that's a much harder problem to solve from\Na policy perspective.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,(HF) So how easy was it for you to get your work\Npublished on this?
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,(Dr) (laughs)\N(HF) (laughs)
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,(Dr) I'm laughing because it was not easy.\N(HF) Yeah.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,(Dr) My colleague, Maxwell, and I started this work in\N2003, when the Iraq invasion
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,(Dr) was really getting going,
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,(Dr) and the paper was not published until 2007.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,(Dr) There were many factors that made it difficult, but\NI think one of them was that this was
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,(Dr) such a weird take on a problem that people had\Nbeen thinking about for a long time.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,(Dr) Political scientists have been studying terrorism for\Ndecades,
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,(Dr) so we were looking at the data in a new way,
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,(Dr) we were talking about terrorism not as a\Nphenomenon of decision making,
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,(Dr) but almost as a natural phenomenon.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,(Dr) This idea that we could look at the entire world\Nalmost as a natural kind of system,
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,(Dr) and characterise its patterns without having to refer\Nto the actual decisions that produced the events.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,(Dr) So the unpleasant aspect of trying to get this\Nwork published is that we tried 10 different journals
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,(HF) Wow.\N(Dr) in order to get this published,
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,(Dr) and sometimes the reviews we got back from\Nacademics, they seemed to be
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,(Dr) missing the point, in some ways.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,(Dr) They didn't understand what we were doing,\Nor what the results implied.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,(HF) So I understand one of the really important\Nimplications is about really large events.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,(HF) What did you find there?
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,(Dr) The fact that the power law pattern exists,
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,(Dr) and the implication that these are all part of\Nthe same fundamental process,
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,(Dr) it does imply that the largest events, things like 9/11,
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,(Dr) will occur with surprising frequency, and the\Nmathematical function is strong enough
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,(Dr) that one can actually extrapolate, and then make a\Nforecast in much the same way
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,(Dr) that forecasts are made for earthquakes.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,(Dr) In fact, the power law distribution is the same\Ndistribution
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,(Dr) that characterises the frequency of earthquakes,\Nand the frequency of terrorist events.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,(Dr) The shape of the distribution is slightly different,\Nbut the pattern is the same.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,(Dr) And so, by applying this mathematical model to\Nforecasting, we can make an estimate
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,(Dr) of the probability that we should see an event in the\Nnext 10 years, for instance,
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,(Dr) that kills as many, or more people as 9/11 did.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,(HF) And what did you find?
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,(Dr) The likelihood across the set of models that we\Nfitted to the data, over the next 10 years,
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,(Dr) is somewhere around 30%, which is not a \Ncertainty,
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,(Dr) but it's still an uncomfortably high number.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,(N1) At least a hundred people are reported killed, and\Nfive hundred injured
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,(N1) in a chain of car bomb attacks across Bombay.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,(HF) In 1993, 13 bombs exploded within 3 hours in\NBombay, and at the final count, over 1500 people
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,(HF) were killed or injured.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,(N2) Russia observes two days of national mourning\Nfor the many victims of Beslan.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,(N2) More than 100 funerals take place in one day,\Nattended by thousands of people.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,(HF) The Beslan school siege in 2004, carried out by\NChechen rebels,
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,(HF) hit over 1000 children, parents, and teachers.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,(HF) And, after 9/11 - the largest terrorist attack in\Nhuman history, which killed almost 3000 people -
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,(HF) funding was ploughed into new, scientific ways\Nto try and tackle terrorism,
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,(HF) from using Game Theory in airport security\Nto analysing the social networks of terror suspects.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,(HF) But now, researchers are using data on terrorism\Nin insurgencies to try and forecast future attacks.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,(HF) Physicist, Neil Johnson, from the University of\NMiami, studied the timings between
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,(HF) terrorist events in one area, and, strangely enough,
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,(HF )the same kind of power law pattern lay behind this data too.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,(NJ) Our initial study was looking at a few regions in\NAfghanistan, and Iraq.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,(NJ) We've now done the study across basically every\Ncountry where we could find data -
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,(NJ) that includes Africa, includes suicide bombings\Nof Hezbollah
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,(NJ) we've looked at suicide attacks in Pakistan,
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,(NJ) they all seem to follow this relationship.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,(HF) So if this happened then, for example, in a UK\Ncity, how confident could you be
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,(HF) in predicting the timing of the next attack.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,(NJ) Yeah, of course it will never be down to the day;
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,(NJ) it will be, in some situa- like, you know- if it's down\Nto the week.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,(NJ) But what can be very useful is predicting the trend.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,(NJ) Are we going to see the events get less\Nfrequent in time?
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,(NJ) Are we going to see them get more frequent?
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,(NJ) And if we see them get more frequent, roughly\Nhow many are we going to be getting
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,(NJ) every few weeks?
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,(NJ) It's not meant to be like predicting, you know\Nwhether it's going to rain in the next three days,
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,(NJ) it's meant to be some trend, and I very much see it\Nin that analogy with say, weather prediction.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,(NJ) The medium-term weather forecasts are getting\Nbetter and better,
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,(NJ) but it's still very hard to say that at 5 o' clock,\Nin three days,
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,(NJ) rain will fall on a particular place in London.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,(NJ) But we're all very interested, and very keen, to\Nknow when some front is moving through,
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,(NJ) and over the next three days, there'll be some\Nincrease in the trend of rain.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,(NJ) That is a very useful statement.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,(NJ) And it's exactly that level [of] prediction that we\Nbelieve that this type of work is good for.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,(NJ) It's never going to say that in five days' time,\N[in] a particular place, there'll be a particular attack,
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,(NJ) but what it is saying is: wait a minute, {\i1}this{\i0} group,\Nin {\i1}this{\i0} region of a country,
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,(NJ) {\i1}they{\i0} are escalating.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,(HF) So I suppose it goes without saying then, that\Nthese ideas would be incredibly useful
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,(HF) to counter-terrorism agencies, but how much\Ninterest have they shown in your research?
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,(NJ) Well, I'm currently funded by the Office of Naval\NResearch,
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,(NJ) they've been very supportive, they're very\Ninterested in this.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,(NJ) I've also had funding through another agency\Nwhich was interested in counter-IED strategies.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,(NJ) So I would say that there's been a lot of interest,
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,(NJ) and we've even had interest, I remember getting\Nan email from Marines
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,(NJ) in a forward-operating base in Afghanistan, telling\Nme that they'd been trying -
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,(NJ) because the formula is so simple, the mathematics\Nis actually so simple -
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,(NJ) that they'd been trying out this particular analysis\Nof successive events that
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,(NJ) they'd actually been seeing, and experiencing\Naround them.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,(HF) Wow. So Marines in the field have been in contact\Nwith you, talking about your mathematical models, then?
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,(NJ) Yeah, the intelligence officer from one of the\Nunits, yes.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,(HF) But not everyone is convinced that we can make\Nsuch precise predictions.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,(HF) Dr Karsten Donnay is a social scientist from\Nthe Swiss Federal Institute of Technology,
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,(HF) who specialises in conflict modelling and\Nsimulation.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,(HF) He thinks there's a danger that these models can\Nbe taken too far.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,(KD) I think one has to be very careful about using\Nthis for direct prediction,
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,(KD) I mean we do distinguish between a prediction\Nand forecasting.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,(KD) If you talk about long-term predictions, then it's\Nfeasible to make statements like this:
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,(KD) There's (??) this chance that in the next 10 years, an event of a certain size will occur,
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,(KD) that's definitely possible.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,(KD) But in the sense of forecasting; actually telling\Nwhen and where events will occur,
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,(KD) actually it's not really possible.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,(KD) The more we try to narrow down predictions,\N
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,(KD) the more we're running the risk of false positives.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,(HF) You need a few ingredients to create a\Nmathematical model:
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,(HF) Start with some good data, and then spot the\Nunderlying pattern.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,(HF) Finally, pinpoint which vital features in the data\Ncreate that pattern,
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,(HF) and everything else, you can strip out.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,(HF) When it comes to terrorism, this if fine if all you\Nwant to do is explain the big relationships,
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,(HF) or look at the long term,
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,(HF) but, according to Karsten Donnay, this\Nsimplification limits the kind of predictions
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,(HF) that you can make.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,(KD) What you can use this model effectively for\Nat the moment -
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,(KD) and I think this is what a lot of the research is\Nabout -
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,(KD) [is] to understand fundamental dynamics that\Nare ongoing.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,(KD) And this is always looking into the past.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,(KD) But of course, if we understand these dynamics,\Nwe can make at least qualitative assessments
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,(KD) of what might happen in the future,
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,(KD) but making a quantitative prediction requires much\Nmore than getting the general gist right;
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,(KD) you have to really understand what are the driving\Nmotives of when and where things happen,
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,(KD) and some of it is actually governed by chance - it's\Ncoincidence, the way it plays out -\N
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,(KD) and this is something which is systematically\Nextremely hard to forecast. (14:50)