WEBVTT

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G'day, my name's Kevin.

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I'm from Australia. I'm here to help.

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(Laughter)

NOTE Paragraph

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Tonight, I want to talk about
a tale of two cities.

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One of those cities is called Washington,
and the other is called Beijing.

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Because how these two capitals
shape their future

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and the future of the United States
and the future of China

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doesn't just affect those two countries,

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it affects all of us

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in ways, perhaps, we've never thought of:

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the air we breathe, the water we drink,

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the fish we eat,
the quality of our oceans,

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the languages we speak in the future,

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the jobs we have,
the political systems we choose,

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and, of course, the great questions
of war and peace.

NOTE Paragraph

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You see that bloke? He's French.

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His name is Napoleon.

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A couple of hundred years ago,

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he made this extraordinary projection:

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"China is a sleeping lion,
and when she awakes,

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the world will shake."

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Napoleon got a few things wrong;

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he got this one absolutely right.

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Because China is today
not just woken up,

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China has stood up
and China is on the march,

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and the question for us all

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is where will China go

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and how do we engage
this giant of the 21st century?

NOTE Paragraph

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You start looking at the numbers,
they start to confront you in a big way.

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It's projected that China will become,

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by whichever measure --
PPP, market exchange rates --

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the largest economy in the world

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over the course of the decade ahead.

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They're already
the largest trading nation,

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already the largest exporting nation,

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already the largest manufacturing nation,

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and they're also the biggest
emitters of carbon in the world.

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America comes second.

NOTE Paragraph

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So if China does become
the world's largest economy,

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think about this:

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It'll be the first time

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since this guy was on
the throne of England --

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George III, not a good friend
of Napoleon's --

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that in the world we will have
as the largest economy

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a non-English speaking country,

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a non-Western country,

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a non-liberal democratic country.

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And if you don't think
that's going to affect

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the way in which the world
happens in the future,

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then personally, I think
you've been smoking something,

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and it doesn't mean you're from Colorado.

NOTE Paragraph

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So in short, the question
we have tonight is,

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how do we understand this mega-change,

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which I believe to be the biggest change
for the first half of the 21st century?

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It'll affect so many things.

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It will go to the absolute core.

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It's happening quietly.
It's happening persistently.

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It's happening in some senses
under the radar,

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as we are all preoccupied with

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what's going in Ukraine,
what's going on in the Middle East,

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what's going on with ISIS,
what's going on with ISIL,

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what's happening with
the future of our economies.

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This is a slow and quiet revolution.

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And with a mega-change
comes also a mega-challenge,

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and the mega-challenge is this:

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Can these two great countries,

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China and the United States --

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China,

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the Middle Kingdom,

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and the United States,

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Měiguó --

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which in Chinese, by the way,
means "the beautiful country."

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Think about that -- that's the name
that China has given this country

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for more than a hundred years.

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Whether these two great civilizations,
these two great countries,

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can in fact carve out a common future

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for themselves and for the world?

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In short, can we carve out a future

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which is peaceful and mutually prosperous,

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or are we looking at a great challenge

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of war or peace?

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And I have 15 minutes
to work through war or peace,

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which is a little less time

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than they gave this guy to write a book
called "War and Peace."

NOTE Paragraph

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People ask me, why is it that a kid
growing up in rural Australia

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got interested in learning Chinese?

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Well, there are two reasons for that.

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Here's the first of them.

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That's Betsy the cow.

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Now, Betsy the cow was one
of a herd of dairy cattle

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that I grew up with on a farm
in rural Australia.

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See those hands there?
These are not built for farming.

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So very early on, I discovered
that in fact, working in a farm

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was not designed for me,
and China was a very safe remove

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from any career in Australian farm life.

NOTE Paragraph

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Here's the second reason.

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That's my mom.

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Anyone here ever listen
to what their mom told them to do?

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Everyone ever do what
their mom told them to do?

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I rarely did,

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but what my mom said to me was,

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one day, she handed me a newspaper,

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a headline which said,
here we have a huge change.

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And that change is China
entering the United Nations.

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1971, I had just turned 14 years of age,

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and she handed me this headline.

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And she said, "Understand this, 
learn this,

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because it's going to affect your future."

NOTE Paragraph

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So being a very good student of history,

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I decided that the best thing
for me to do was, in fact,

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to go off and learn Chinese.

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The great thing about learning Chinese

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is that your Chinese teacher
gives you a new name.

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And so they gave me this name:

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Kè, which means to overcome or to conquer,

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and Wén, and that's the character
for literature or the arts.

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Kè Wén, Conqueror of the Classics.

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Any of you guys called "Kevin"?

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It's a major lift from being called Kevin
to be called Conqueror of the Classics.

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(Laughter)

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I've been called Kevin all my life.

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Have you been called Kevin all your life?

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Would you prefer to be called
Conqueror of the Classics?

NOTE Paragraph

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And so I went off after that
and joined the Australian Foreign Service,

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but here is where pride -- before pride,
there always comes a fall.

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So there I am in the embassy in Beijing,

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off to the Great Hall of the People

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with our ambassador, who had asked me
to interpret for his first meeting

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in the Great Hall of the People.

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And so there was I.

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If you've been to a Chinese meeting,
it's a giant horseshoe.

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At the head of the horsehoe
are the really serious pooh-bahs,

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and down the end of the horseshoe
are the not-so-serious pooh-bahs,

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the junior woodchucks like me.

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And so the ambassador
began with this inelegant phrase.

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He said, "China and Australia
are currently enjoying a relationship

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of unprecedented closeness."

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And I thought to myself,

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"That sounds clumsy. That sounds odd.

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I will improve it."

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Note to file: Never do that.

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It needed to be a little more elegant,
a little more classical,

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so I rendered it as follows.

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[In Chinese]

NOTE Paragraph

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There was a big pause
on the other side of the room.

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You could see the giant pooh-bahs
at the head of the horseshoe,

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the blood visibly draining
from their faces,

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and the junior woodchucks
at the other end of the horseshoe

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engaged in peals of 
unrestrained laughter.

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Because when I rendered his sentence,

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"Australia and China are 
enjoying a relationship

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of unprecedented closeness,"

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in fact, what I said was that
Australia and China

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were now experiencing fantastic orgasm.

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(Laughter)

NOTE Paragraph

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That was the last time
I was asked to interpret.

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But in that little story,
there's a wisdom, which is,

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as soon as you think you know something
about this extraordinary civilization

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of 5,000 years of continuing history,

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there's always something new to learn.

NOTE Paragraph

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History is against us

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when it comes to the U.S. and China

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forging a common future together.

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This guy up here?

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He's not Chinese and he's not American.

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He's Greek. His name's Thucydides.

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He wrote the history
of the Peloponnesian Wars.

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And he made this extraordinary observation


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about Athens and Sparta.

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"It was the rise of Athens
and the fear that this inspired in Sparta

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that made war inevitable."

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And hence, a whole literature about
something called the Thucydides Trap.

NOTE Paragraph

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This guy here? He's not American
and he's not Greek. He's Chinese.

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His name is Sun Tzu.
He wrote "The Art of War,"

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and if you see his statement underneath,
it's along these lines:

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"Attack him where he is unprepared,
appear where you are not expected."

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Not looking good so far
for China and the United States.

NOTE Paragraph

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This guy is an American.
His name's Graham Allison.

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In fact, he's a teacher
at the Kennedy School

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over there in Boston.

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He's working on a single project
at the moment, which is,

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does the Thucydides Trap
about the inevitably of war

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between rising powers
and established great powers

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apply to the future
of China-U.S. relations?

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It's a core question.

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And what Graham has done
is explore 15 cases in history

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since the 1500s

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to establish what the precedents are.

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And in 11 out of 15 of them,

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let me tell you,

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they've ended in catastrophic war.

NOTE Paragraph

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You may say, "But Kevin --

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or Conqueror of the Classics --

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that was the past.

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We live now in a world
of interdependence and globalization.

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It could never happen again."

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Guess what?

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The economic historians
tell us that in fact,

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the time which we reached
the greatest point

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of economic integration and globalization

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was in 1914,

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just before that happened, World War I,

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a sobering reflection from history.

NOTE Paragraph

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So if we are engaged
in this great question

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of how China thinks, feels,

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and positions itself
towards the United States,

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and the reverse,

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how do we get to the baseline

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of how these two countries
and civilizations

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can possibly work together?

NOTE Paragraph

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Let me first go to, in fact,

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China's views of the U.S.
and the rest of the West.

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Number one: China feels
as if it's been humiliated

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at the hands of the West
through a hundred years of history,

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beginning with the Opium Wars.

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When after that, the Western powers
carved China up into little pieces,

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so that by the time
it got to the '20s and '30s,

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signs like this one appeared
on the streets of Shanghai.

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["No dogs and Chinese allowed"]

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How would you feel if you were Chinese, 


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in your own country, 
if you saw that sign appear?

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China also believes and feels

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as if, in the events of 1919,
at the Peace Conference in Paris,

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when Germany's colonies were given back

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to all sorts of countries
around in the world,

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what about German colonies in China?

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They were, in fact, given to Japan.

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When Japan then invaded China in the 1930s

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the world looked away and was indifferent
to what would happen to China.

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And then, on top of that,
the Chinese to this day believe

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that the United States and the West

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do not accept the legitimacy
of their political system

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because it's so radically different
from those of us who come

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from liberal democracies,

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and believe that the United States
to this day is seeking

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to undermine their political system.

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China also believes
that it is being contained

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by U.S. allies and by those
with strategic partnerships with the U.S.

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right around its periphery.

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And beyond all that,
the Chinese have this feeling

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in their heart of hearts
and in their gut of guts

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that those of us in the collective West

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are just too damned arrogant.

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That is, we don't recognize
the problems in our own system,

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in our politics and our economics,

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and are very quick
to point the finger elsewhere,

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and believe that, in fact,
we in the collective West

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are guilty of a great bunch of hypocrisy.

NOTE Paragraph

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Of course, in international relations,

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it's not just the sound
of one hand clapping.

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There's another country too,
and that's called the U.S.

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So how does the U.S.
respond to all of the above?

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The U.S. has a response to each of those.

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On the question of
is the U.S. containing China,

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they say, "No, look at the history of
the Soviet Union. That was containment."

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Instead, what we have done
in the U.S. and the West

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is welcome China
into the global economy,

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and on top of that, welcome them
into the World Trade Organization.

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The U.S. and the West say China cheats

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on the question
of intellectual property rights,

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and through cyberattacks
on U.S. and global firms.

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Furthermore, the United States
says that the Chinese political system

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is fundamentally wrong

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because it's at such fundamental variance

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to the human rights, democracy,
and rule of law that we enjoy

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in the U.S. and the collective West.

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And on top of all the above,
what does the United States say?

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That they fear that China will,
when it has sufficient power,

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establish a sphere of influence
in Southeast Asia and wider East Asia,

00:13:25.786 --> 00:13:27.690
boot the United States out,

00:13:27.690 --> 00:13:29.710
and in time, when it's powerful enough,

00:13:29.710 --> 00:13:33.719
unilaterally seek to change
the rules of the global order.

NOTE Paragraph

00:13:33.719 --> 00:13:36.421
So apart from all of that,
it's just fine and dandy,

00:13:36.421 --> 00:13:37.815
the U.S.-China relationship.

00:13:37.815 --> 00:13:40.020
No real problems there.

00:13:40.020 --> 00:13:44.942
The challenge, though,
is given those deep-rooted feelings,

00:13:44.942 --> 00:13:47.937
those deep-rooted emotions
and thought patterns,

00:13:47.937 --> 00:13:50.747
what the Chinese call "Sīwéi,"
ways of thinking,

00:13:50.747 --> 00:13:55.205
how can we craft a basis
for a common future between these two?

NOTE Paragraph

00:13:55.205 --> 00:13:56.836
I argue simply this:

00:13:56.836 --> 00:13:58.781
We can do it on the basis on a framework

00:13:58.781 --> 00:14:03.356
of constructive realism
for a common purpose.

00:14:03.356 --> 00:14:05.329
What do I mean by that?

00:14:05.329 --> 00:14:07.674
Be realistic about the things
that we disagree on,

00:14:07.674 --> 00:14:09.949
and a management approach
that doesn't enable

00:14:09.949 --> 00:14:12.805
any one of those differences
to break into war or conflict

00:14:12.805 --> 00:14:16.358
until we've acquired
the diplomatic skills to solve them.

00:14:16.358 --> 00:14:20.014
Be constructive in areas of the
bilateral, regional and global engagement

00:14:20.014 --> 00:14:21.386
between the two,

00:14:21.386 --> 00:14:24.113
which will make a difference
for all of humankind.

00:14:24.113 --> 00:14:28.106
Build a regional institution
capable of cooperation in Asia,

00:14:28.106 --> 00:14:30.034
an Asia-Pacific community.

00:14:30.034 --> 00:14:32.448
And worldwide, act further,

00:14:32.448 --> 00:14:35.072
like you've begun to do
at the end of last year

00:14:35.072 --> 00:14:37.301
by striking out against climate change

00:14:37.301 --> 00:14:41.295
with hands joined together
rather than fists apart.

NOTE Paragraph

00:14:41.295 --> 00:14:44.197
Of course, all that happens
if you've got a common mechanism

00:14:44.197 --> 00:14:46.310
and political will to achieve the above.

00:14:46.310 --> 00:14:49.004
These things are deliverable.

00:14:49.004 --> 00:14:53.020
But the question is,
are they deliverable alone?

00:14:53.020 --> 00:14:55.969
This is what our head
tells us we need to do,

00:14:55.969 --> 00:14:57.873
but what about our heart?

NOTE Paragraph

00:14:57.873 --> 00:15:00.915
I have a little experience
in the question back home

00:15:00.915 --> 00:15:04.235
of how you try to bring
together two peoples

00:15:04.235 --> 00:15:07.857
who, frankly, haven't had
a whole lot in common in the past.

00:15:07.857 --> 00:15:11.434
And that's when I apologized
to Australia's indigenous peoples.

00:15:11.434 --> 00:15:15.219
This was a day of reckoning
in the Australian government,

00:15:15.219 --> 00:15:17.911
the Australian parliament,
and for the Australian people.

00:15:17.911 --> 00:15:22.694
After 200 years of unbridled abuse
towards the first Australians,

00:15:22.694 --> 00:15:27.872
it was high time that we white folks
said we were sorry.

NOTE Paragraph

00:15:27.872 --> 00:15:29.242
The important thing --

00:15:29.242 --> 00:15:34.288
(Applause)

NOTE Paragraph

00:15:34.288 --> 00:15:37.210
The important thing that I remember
is staring in the faces

00:15:37.210 --> 00:15:39.691
of all those from Aboriginal Australia

00:15:39.691 --> 00:15:42.500
as they came to listen to this apology.

00:15:42.500 --> 00:15:46.308
It was extraordinary to see, for example,

00:15:46.308 --> 00:15:50.232
old women telling me the stories
of when they were five years old

00:15:50.232 --> 00:15:53.228
and literally ripped away
from their parents,

00:15:53.228 --> 00:15:54.829
like this lady here.

00:15:54.829 --> 00:15:58.962
It was extraordinary for me
to then be able to embrace

00:15:58.962 --> 00:16:02.910
and to kiss Aboriginal elders
as they came into the parliament building,

00:16:02.910 --> 00:16:04.166
and one woman said to me,

00:16:04.166 --> 00:16:07.321
it's the first time a white fella
had ever kissed her in her life,

00:16:07.321 --> 00:16:09.272
and she was over 70.

00:16:09.272 --> 00:16:11.779
That's a terrible story.

NOTE Paragraph

00:16:11.779 --> 00:16:14.241
And then I remember
this family saying to me,

00:16:14.241 --> 00:16:18.304
"You know, we drove all the way
from the far North down to Canberra

00:16:18.304 --> 00:16:19.674
to come to this thing,

00:16:19.674 --> 00:16:21.857
drove our way through redneck country.

00:16:21.857 --> 00:16:28.474
On the way back, stopped at a cafe
after the apology for a milkshake."

00:16:28.474 --> 00:16:34.046
And they walked into this cafe
quietly, tentatively, gingerly,

00:16:34.046 --> 00:16:35.509
a little anxious.

00:16:35.509 --> 00:16:38.063
I think you know what I'm talking about.

00:16:38.063 --> 00:16:41.871
But the day after the apology,
what happened?

00:16:41.871 --> 00:16:45.981
Everyone in that cafe,
every one of the white folks,

00:16:45.981 --> 00:16:48.767
stood up and applauded.

00:16:48.767 --> 00:16:53.903
Something had happened in the hearts
of these people in Australia.

00:16:53.903 --> 00:16:56.592
The white folks, our Aboriginal
brothers and sisters,

00:16:56.592 --> 00:16:59.820
and we haven't solved
all these problems together,

00:16:59.820 --> 00:17:03.488
but let me tell you,
there was a new beginning

00:17:03.488 --> 00:17:05.904
because we had gone not just to the head,

00:17:05.904 --> 00:17:08.562
we'd gone also to the heart.

NOTE Paragraph

00:17:08.562 --> 00:17:11.433
So where does that conclude
in terms of the great question

00:17:11.433 --> 00:17:13.620
that we've been asked
to address this evening,

00:17:13.620 --> 00:17:16.584
which is the future
of U.S.-China relations?

00:17:16.584 --> 00:17:18.883
The head says there's a way forward.

00:17:18.883 --> 00:17:22.574
The head says there is a policy framework,
there's a common narrative,

00:17:22.574 --> 00:17:24.501
there's a mechanism
through regular summitry

00:17:24.501 --> 00:17:26.405
to do these things
and to make them better.

00:17:26.405 --> 00:17:31.978
But the heart must also find a way
to reimagine the possibilities

00:17:31.978 --> 00:17:33.882
of the America-China relationship,

00:17:33.882 --> 00:17:37.542
and the possibilities of China's
future engagement in the world.

00:17:37.542 --> 00:17:43.625
Sometimes, folks, we just need
to take a leap of faith

00:17:43.625 --> 00:17:47.549
not quite knowing where we might land.

NOTE Paragraph

00:17:47.549 --> 00:17:51.822
In China, they now talk about
the Chinese Dream.

00:17:51.822 --> 00:17:57.348
In America, we're all familiar
with the term "the American Dream."

00:17:57.348 --> 00:18:00.482
I think it's time, across the world,

00:18:00.482 --> 00:18:05.614
that we're able to think also
of something we might also call

00:18:05.614 --> 00:18:10.756
a dream for all humankind.

00:18:11.368 --> 00:18:13.327
Because if we do that,

00:18:13.327 --> 00:18:15.977
we might just change the way

00:18:15.977 --> 00:18:20.529
that we think about each other.

NOTE Paragraph

00:18:23.923 --> 00:18:27.034
[In Chinese]

NOTE Paragraph

00:18:27.034 --> 00:18:30.401
That's my challenge to America.
That's my challenge to China.

00:18:30.401 --> 00:18:32.885
That's my challenge to all of us,

00:18:32.885 --> 00:18:36.182
but I think where there's a will
and where there is imagination

00:18:36.182 --> 00:18:38.226
we can turn this into a future

00:18:38.226 --> 00:18:40.571
driven by peace and prosperity

00:18:40.571 --> 00:18:42.591
and not once again repeat

00:18:42.591 --> 00:18:44.704
the tragedies of war.

NOTE Paragraph

00:18:44.704 --> 00:18:46.562
I thank you.

NOTE Paragraph

00:18:46.562 --> 00:18:51.997
(Applause)

NOTE Paragraph

00:18:51.997 --> 00:18:55.176
Chris Anderson: Thanks so much for that.
Thanks so much for that.

00:18:55.176 --> 00:18:59.773
It feels like you yourself
have a role to play in this bridging.

00:18:59.773 --> 00:19:04.124
You, in a way, are uniquely placed
to speak to both sides.

NOTE Paragraph

00:19:04.124 --> 00:19:07.377
Kevin Rudd: Well, what we Australians
do best is organize the drinks,

00:19:07.377 --> 00:19:10.904
so you get them together in one room,
and we suggest this and suggest that,

00:19:10.904 --> 00:19:12.337
then we go and get the drinks.

00:19:12.337 --> 00:19:14.341
But no, look, for all of us
who are friends

00:19:14.341 --> 00:19:16.603
of these two great countries,
America and China,

00:19:16.603 --> 00:19:17.942
you can do something.

00:19:17.942 --> 00:19:20.241
You can make a practical contribution,

00:19:20.241 --> 00:19:22.122
and for all you good folks here,

00:19:22.122 --> 00:19:23.747
next time you meet someone from China,

00:19:23.747 --> 00:19:25.359
sit down and have a conversation.

00:19:25.359 --> 00:19:28.814
See what you can find out about
where they come from and what they think,

00:19:28.814 --> 00:19:30.852
and my challenge for all
the Chinese folks

00:19:30.852 --> 00:19:33.181
who are going to watch
this TED Talk at some time

00:19:33.181 --> 00:19:35.542
is do the same.

00:19:35.542 --> 00:19:39.443
Two of us seeking to change the world
can actually make a huge difference.

00:19:39.443 --> 00:19:42.345
Those of us up the middle,
we can make a small contribution.

NOTE Paragraph

00:19:42.345 --> 00:19:44.701
CA: Kevin, all power to you,
my friend. Thank you.

NOTE Paragraph

00:19:44.701 --> 00:19:46.827
KR: Thank you. Thank you, folks.

NOTE Paragraph

00:19:46.827 --> 00:19:48.870
(Applause)