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G'day, my name's Kevin.

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I'm from Australia. I'm here to help.

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(Laughter)

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Tonight, I want to talk about
a tale of two cities.

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One of those cities is called Washington,
and the other is called Beijing.

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Because how these two capitals
shape their future

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and the future of the United States
and the future of China

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doesn't just affect those two countries,

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it affects all of us

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in ways, perhaps, we've never thought of:

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the air we breathe, the water we drink,

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the fish we eat,
the quality of our oceans,

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the languages we speak in the future,

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the jobs we have,
the political systems we choose,

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and, of course, the great questions
of war and peace.

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You see that bloke? He's French.

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His name is Napoleon.

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A couple of hundred years ago,

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he made this extraordinary projection:

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"China is a sleeping lion,
and when she awakes,

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the world will shake."

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Napoleon got a few things wrong;

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he got this one absolutely right.

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Because China is today
not just woken up,

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China has stood up
and China is on the march,

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and the question for us all

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is where will China go

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and how do we engage
this giant of the 21st century?

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You start looking at the numbers,
they start to confront you in a big way.

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It's projected that China will become,

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by whichever measure --
PPP, market exchange rates --

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the largest economy in the world

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over the course of the decade ahead.

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They're already
the largest trading nation,

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already the largest exporting nation,

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already the largest manufacturing nation,

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and they're also the biggest
emitters of carbon in the world.

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America comes second.

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So if China does become
the world's largest economy,

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think about this:

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It'll be the first time

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since this guy was on
the throne of England --

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George III, not a good friend
of Napoleon's --

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that in the world we will have
as the largest economy

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a non-English speaking country,

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a non-Western country,

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a non-liberal democratic country.

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And if you don't think
that's going to affect

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the way in which the world
happens in the future,

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then personally, I think
you've been smoking something,

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and it doesn't mean you're from Colorado.

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So in short, the question
we have tonight is,

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how do we understand this mega-change,

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which I believe to be the biggest change
for the first half of the 21st century?

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It'll affect so many things.

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It will go to the absolute core.

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It's happening quietly.
It's happening persistently.

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It's happening in some senses
under the radar,

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as we are all preoccupied with

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what's going in Ukraine,
what's going on in the Middle East,

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what's going on with ISIS,
what's going on with ISIL,

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what's happening with
the future of our economies.

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This is a slow and quiet revolution.

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And with a mega-change
comes also a mega-challenge,

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and the mega-challenge is this:

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Can these two great countries,

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China and the United States --

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China,

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the Middle Kingdom,

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and the United States,

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Měiguó --

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which in Chinese, by the way,
means "the beautiful country."

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Think about that -- that's the name
that China has given this country

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for more than a hundred years.

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Whether these two great civilizations,
these two great countries,

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can in fact carve out a common future

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for themselves and for the world?

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In short, can we carve out a future

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which is peaceful and mutually prosperous,

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or are we looking at a great challenge

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of war or peace?

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And I have 15 minutes
to work through war or peace,

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which is a little less time

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than they gave this guy to write a book
called "War and Peace."

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People ask me, why is it that a kid
growing up in rural Australia

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got interested in learning Chinese?

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Well, there are two reasons for that.

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Here's the first of them.

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That's Betsy the cow.

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Now, Betsy the cow was one
of a herd of dairy cattle

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that I grew up with on a farm
in rural Australia.

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See those hands there?
These are not built for farming.

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So very early on, I discovered
that in fact, working in a farm

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was not designed for me,
and China was a very safe remove

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from any career in Australian farm life.

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Here's the second reason.

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That's my mom.

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Anyone here ever listen
to what their mom told them to do?

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Everyone ever do what
their mom told them to do?

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I rarely did,

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but what my mom said to me was,

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one day, she handed me a newspaper,

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a headline which said,
here we have a huge change.

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And that change is China
entering the United Nations.

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1971, I had just turned 14 years of age,

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and she handed me this headline.

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And she said, "Understand this, 
learn this,

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because it's going to affect your future."

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So being a very good student of history,

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I decided that the best thing
for me to do was, in fact,

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to go off and learn Chinese.

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The great thing about learning Chinese

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is that your Chinese teacher
gives you a new name.

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And so they gave me this name:

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Kè, which means to overcome or to conquer,

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and Wén, and that's the character
for literature or the arts.

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Kè Wén, Conqueror of the Classics.

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Any of you guys called "Kevin"?

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It's a major lift from being called Kevin
to be called Conqueror of the Classics.

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(Laughter)

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I've been called Kevin all my life.

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Have you been called Kevin all your life?

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Would you prefer to be called
Conqueror of the Classics?

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And so I went off after that
and joined the Australian Foreign Service,

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but here is where pride -- before pride,
there always comes a fall.

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So there I am in the embassy in Beijing,

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off to the Great Hall of the People

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with our ambassador, who had asked me
to interpret for his first meeting

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in the Great Hall of the People.

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And so there was I.

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If you've been to a Chinese meeting,
it's a giant horseshoe.

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At the head of the horsehoe
are the really serious pooh-bahs,

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and down the end of the horseshoe
are the not-so-serious pooh-bahs,

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the junior woodchucks like me.

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And so the ambassador
began with this inelegant phrase.

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He said, "China and Australia
are currently enjoying a relationship

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of unprecedented closeness."

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And I thought to myself,

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"That sounds clumsy. That sounds odd.

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I will improve it."

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Note to file: Never do that.

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It needed to be a little more elegant,
a little more classical,

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so I rendered it as follows.

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[In Chinese]

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There was a big pause
on the other side of the room.

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You could see the giant pooh-bahs
at the head of the horseshoe,

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the blood visibly draining
from their faces,

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and the junior woodchucks
at the other end of the horseshoe

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engaged in peals of 
unrestrained laughter.

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Because when I rendered his sentence,

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"Australia and China are 
enjoying a relationship

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of unprecedented closeness,"

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in fact, what I said was that
Australia and China

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were now experiencing fantastic orgasm.

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(Laughter)

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That was the last time
I was asked to interpret.

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But in that little story,
there's a wisdom, which is,

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as soon as you think you know something
about this extraordinary civilization

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of 5,000 years of continuing history,

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there's always something new to learn.

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History is against us

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when it comes to the U.S. and China

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forging a common future together.

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This guy up here?

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He's not Chinese and he's not American.

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He's Greek. His name's Thucydides.

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He wrote the history
of the Peloponnesian Wars.

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And he made this extraordinary observation


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about Athens and Sparta.

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"It was the rise of Athens
and the fear that this inspired in Sparta

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that made war inevitable."

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And hence, a whole literature about
something called the Thucydides Trap.

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This guy here? He's not American
and he's not Greek. He's Chinese.

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His name is Sun Tzu.
He wrote "The Art of War,"

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and if you see his statement underneath,
it's along these lines:

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"Attack him where he is unprepared,
appear where you are not expected."

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Not looking good so far
for China and the United States.

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This guy is an American.
His name's Graham Allison.

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In fact, he's a teacher
at the Kennedy School

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over there in Boston.

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He's working on a single project
at the moment, which is,

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does the Thucydides Trap
about the inevitably of war

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between rising powers
and established great powers

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apply to the future
of China-U.S. relations?

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It's a core question.

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And what Graham has done
is explore 15 cases in history

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since the 1500s

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to establish what the precedents are.

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And in 11 out of 15 of them,

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let me tell you,

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they've ended in catastrophic war.

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You may say, "But Kevin --

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or Conqueror of the Classics --

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that was the past.

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We live now in a world
of interdependence and globalization.

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It could never happen again."

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Guess what?

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The economic historians
tell us that in fact,

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the time which we reached
the greatest point

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of economic integration and globalization

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was in 1914,

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just before that happened, World War I,

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a sobering reflection from history.

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So if we are engaged
in this great question

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of how China thinks, feels,

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and positions itself
towards the United States,

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and the reverse,

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how do we get to the baseline

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of how these two countries
and civilizations

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can possibly work together?

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Let me first go to, in fact,

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China's views of the U.S.
and the rest of the West.

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Number one: China feels
as if it's been humiliated

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at the hands of the West
through a hundred years of history,

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beginning with the Opium Wars.

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When after that, the Western powers
carved China up into little pieces,

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so that by the time
it got to the '20s and '30s,

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signs like this one appeared
on the streets of Shanghai.

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["No dogs and Chinese allowed"]

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How would you feel if you were Chinese, 


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in your own country, 
if you saw that sign appear?

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China also believes and feels

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as if, in the events of 1919,
at the Peace Conference in Paris,

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when Germany's colonies were given back

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to all sorts of countries
around in the world,

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what about German colonies in China?

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They were, in fact, given to Japan.

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When Japan then invaded China in the 1930s

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the world looked away and was indifferent
to what would happen to China.

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And then, on top of that,
the Chinese to this day believe

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that the United States and the West

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do not accept the legitimacy
of their political system

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because it's so radically different
from those of us who come

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from liberal democracies,

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and believe that the United States
to this day is seeking

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to undermine their political system.

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China also believes
that it is being contained

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by U.S. allies and by those
with strategic partnerships with the U.S.

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right around its periphery.

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And beyond all that,
the Chinese have this feeling

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in their heart of hearts
and in their gut of guts

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that those of us in the collective West

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are just too damned arrogant.

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That is, we don't recognize
the problems in our own system,

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in our politics and our economics,

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and are very quick
to point the finger elsewhere,

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and believe that, in fact,
we in the collective West

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are guilty of a great bunch of hypocrisy.

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Of course, in international relations,

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it's not just the sound
of one hand clapping.

251
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There's another country too,
and that's called the U.S.

252
00:12:30,688 --> 00:12:33,242
So how does the U.S.
respond to all of the above?

253
00:12:33,242 --> 00:12:35,378
The U.S. has a response to each of those.

254
00:12:35,378 --> 00:12:37,881
On the question of
is the U.S. containing China,

255
00:12:37,881 --> 00:12:41,559
they say, "No, look at the history of
the Soviet Union. That was containment."

256
00:12:41,559 --> 00:12:43,969
Instead, what we have done
in the U.S. and the West

257
00:12:43,969 --> 00:12:45,943
is welcome China
into the global economy,

258
00:12:45,943 --> 00:12:49,379
and on top of that, welcome them
into the World Trade Organization.

259
00:12:49,379 --> 00:12:51,252
The U.S. and the West say China cheats

260
00:12:51,252 --> 00:12:53,558
on the question
of intellectual property rights,

261
00:12:53,558 --> 00:12:57,877
and through cyberattacks
on U.S. and global firms.

262
00:12:57,877 --> 00:13:01,453
Furthermore, the United States
says that the Chinese political system

263
00:13:01,453 --> 00:13:04,332
is fundamentally wrong

264
00:13:04,332 --> 00:13:07,629
because it's at such fundamental variance

265
00:13:07,629 --> 00:13:10,880
to the human rights, democracy,
and rule of law that we enjoy

266
00:13:10,880 --> 00:13:13,504
in the U.S. and the collective West.

267
00:13:13,504 --> 00:13:16,661
And on top of all the above,
what does the United States say?

268
00:13:16,661 --> 00:13:21,769
That they fear that China will,
when it has sufficient power,

269
00:13:21,769 --> 00:13:25,786
establish a sphere of influence
in Southeast Asia and wider East Asia,

270
00:13:25,786 --> 00:13:27,690
boot the United States out,

271
00:13:27,690 --> 00:13:29,710
and in time, when it's powerful enough,

272
00:13:29,710 --> 00:13:33,719
unilaterally seek to change
the rules of the global order.

273
00:13:33,719 --> 00:13:36,421
So apart from all of that,
it's just fine and dandy,

274
00:13:36,421 --> 00:13:37,815
the U.S.-China relationship.

275
00:13:37,815 --> 00:13:40,020
No real problems there.

276
00:13:40,020 --> 00:13:44,942
The challenge, though,
is given those deep-rooted feelings,

277
00:13:44,942 --> 00:13:47,937
those deep-rooted emotions
and thought patterns,

278
00:13:47,937 --> 00:13:50,747
what the Chinese call "Sīwéi,"
ways of thinking,

279
00:13:50,747 --> 00:13:55,205
how can we craft a basis
for a common future between these two?

280
00:13:55,205 --> 00:13:56,836
I argue simply this:

281
00:13:56,836 --> 00:13:58,781
We can do it on the basis on a framework

282
00:13:58,781 --> 00:14:03,356
of constructive realism
for a common purpose.

283
00:14:03,356 --> 00:14:05,329
What do I mean by that?

284
00:14:05,329 --> 00:14:07,674
Be realistic about the things
that we disagree on,

285
00:14:07,674 --> 00:14:09,949
and a management approach
that doesn't enable

286
00:14:09,949 --> 00:14:12,805
any one of those differences
to break into war or conflict

287
00:14:12,805 --> 00:14:16,358
until we've acquired
the diplomatic skills to solve them.

288
00:14:16,358 --> 00:14:20,014
Be constructive in areas of the
bilateral, regional and global engagement

289
00:14:20,014 --> 00:14:21,386
between the two,

290
00:14:21,386 --> 00:14:24,113
which will make a difference
for all of humankind.

291
00:14:24,113 --> 00:14:28,106
Build a regional institution
capable of cooperation in Asia,

292
00:14:28,106 --> 00:14:30,034
an Asia-Pacific community.

293
00:14:30,034 --> 00:14:32,448
And worldwide, act further,

294
00:14:32,448 --> 00:14:35,072
like you've begun to do
at the end of last year

295
00:14:35,072 --> 00:14:37,301
by striking out against climate change

296
00:14:37,301 --> 00:14:41,295
with hands joined together
rather than fists apart.

297
00:14:41,295 --> 00:14:44,197
Of course, all that happens
if you've got a common mechanism

298
00:14:44,197 --> 00:14:46,310
and political will to achieve the above.

299
00:14:46,310 --> 00:14:49,004
These things are deliverable.

300
00:14:49,004 --> 00:14:53,020
But the question is,
are they deliverable alone?

301
00:14:53,020 --> 00:14:55,969
This is what our head
tells us we need to do,

302
00:14:55,969 --> 00:14:57,873
but what about our heart?

303
00:14:57,873 --> 00:15:00,915
I have a little experience
in the question back home

304
00:15:00,915 --> 00:15:04,235
of how you try to bring
together two peoples

305
00:15:04,235 --> 00:15:07,857
who, frankly, haven't had
a whole lot in common in the past.

306
00:15:07,857 --> 00:15:11,434
And that's when I apologized
to Australia's indigenous peoples.

307
00:15:11,434 --> 00:15:15,219
This was a day of reckoning
in the Australian government,

308
00:15:15,219 --> 00:15:17,911
the Australian parliament,
and for the Australian people.

309
00:15:17,911 --> 00:15:22,694
After 200 years of unbridled abuse
towards the first Australians,

310
00:15:22,694 --> 00:15:27,872
it was high time that we white folks
said we were sorry.

311
00:15:27,872 --> 00:15:29,242
The important thing --

312
00:15:29,242 --> 00:15:34,288
(Applause)

313
00:15:34,288 --> 00:15:37,210
The important thing that I remember
is staring in the faces

314
00:15:37,210 --> 00:15:39,691
of all those from Aboriginal Australia

315
00:15:39,691 --> 00:15:42,500
as they came to listen to this apology.

316
00:15:42,500 --> 00:15:46,308
It was extraordinary to see, for example,

317
00:15:46,308 --> 00:15:50,232
old women telling me the stories
of when they were five years old

318
00:15:50,232 --> 00:15:53,228
and literally ripped away
from their parents,

319
00:15:53,228 --> 00:15:54,829
like this lady here.

320
00:15:54,829 --> 00:15:58,962
It was extraordinary for me
to then be able to embrace

321
00:15:58,962 --> 00:16:02,910
and to kiss Aboriginal elders
as they came into the parliament building,

322
00:16:02,910 --> 00:16:04,166
and one woman said to me,

323
00:16:04,166 --> 00:16:07,321
it's the first time a white fella
had ever kissed her in her life,

324
00:16:07,321 --> 00:16:09,272
and she was over 70.

325
00:16:09,272 --> 00:16:11,779
That's a terrible story.

326
00:16:11,779 --> 00:16:14,241
And then I remember
this family saying to me,

327
00:16:14,241 --> 00:16:18,304
"You know, we drove all the way
from the far North down to Canberra

328
00:16:18,304 --> 00:16:19,674
to come to this thing,

329
00:16:19,674 --> 00:16:21,857
drove our way through redneck country.

330
00:16:21,857 --> 00:16:28,474
On the way back, stopped at a cafe
after the apology for a milkshake."

331
00:16:28,474 --> 00:16:34,046
And they walked into this cafe
quietly, tentatively, gingerly,

332
00:16:34,046 --> 00:16:35,509
a little anxious.

333
00:16:35,509 --> 00:16:38,063
I think you know what I'm talking about.

334
00:16:38,063 --> 00:16:41,871
But the day after the apology,
what happened?

335
00:16:41,871 --> 00:16:45,981
Everyone in that cafe,
every one of the white folks,

336
00:16:45,981 --> 00:16:48,767
stood up and applauded.

337
00:16:48,767 --> 00:16:53,903
Something had happened in the hearts
of these people in Australia.

338
00:16:53,903 --> 00:16:56,592
The white folks, our Aboriginal
brothers and sisters,

339
00:16:56,592 --> 00:16:59,820
and we haven't solved
all these problems together,

340
00:16:59,820 --> 00:17:03,488
but let me tell you,
there was a new beginning

341
00:17:03,488 --> 00:17:05,904
because we had gone not just to the head,

342
00:17:05,904 --> 00:17:08,562
we'd gone also to the heart.

343
00:17:08,562 --> 00:17:11,433
So where does that conclude
in terms of the great question

344
00:17:11,433 --> 00:17:13,620
that we've been asked
to address this evening,

345
00:17:13,620 --> 00:17:16,584
which is the future
of U.S.-China relations?

346
00:17:16,584 --> 00:17:18,883
The head says there's a way forward.

347
00:17:18,883 --> 00:17:22,574
The head says there is a policy framework,
there's a common narrative,

348
00:17:22,574 --> 00:17:24,501
there's a mechanism
through regular summitry

349
00:17:24,501 --> 00:17:26,405
to do these things
and to make them better.

350
00:17:26,405 --> 00:17:31,978
But the heart must also find a way
to reimagine the possibilities

351
00:17:31,978 --> 00:17:33,882
of the America-China relationship,

352
00:17:33,882 --> 00:17:37,542
and the possibilities of China's
future engagement in the world.

353
00:17:37,542 --> 00:17:43,625
Sometimes, folks, we just need
to take a leap of faith

354
00:17:43,625 --> 00:17:47,549
not quite knowing where we might land.

355
00:17:47,549 --> 00:17:51,822
In China, they now talk about
the Chinese Dream.

356
00:17:51,822 --> 00:17:57,348
In America, we're all familiar
with the term "the American Dream."

357
00:17:57,348 --> 00:18:00,482
I think it's time, across the world,

358
00:18:00,482 --> 00:18:05,614
that we're able to think also
of something we might also call

359
00:18:05,614 --> 00:18:10,756
a dream for all humankind.

360
00:18:11,368 --> 00:18:13,327
Because if we do that,

361
00:18:13,327 --> 00:18:15,977
we might just change the way

362
00:18:15,977 --> 00:18:20,529
that we think about each other.

363
00:18:23,923 --> 00:18:27,034
[In Chinese]

364
00:18:27,034 --> 00:18:30,401
That's my challenge to America.
That's my challenge to China.

365
00:18:30,401 --> 00:18:32,885
That's my challenge to all of us,

366
00:18:32,885 --> 00:18:36,182
but I think where there's a will
and where there is imagination

367
00:18:36,182 --> 00:18:38,226
we can turn this into a future

368
00:18:38,226 --> 00:18:40,571
driven by peace and prosperity

369
00:18:40,571 --> 00:18:42,591
and not once again repeat

370
00:18:42,591 --> 00:18:44,704
the tragedies of war.

371
00:18:44,704 --> 00:18:46,562
I thank you.

372
00:18:46,562 --> 00:18:51,997
(Applause)

373
00:18:51,997 --> 00:18:55,176
Chris Anderson: Thanks so much for that.
Thanks so much for that.

374
00:18:55,176 --> 00:18:59,773
It feels like you yourself
have a role to play in this bridging.

375
00:18:59,773 --> 00:19:04,124
You, in a way, are uniquely placed
to speak to both sides.

376
00:19:04,124 --> 00:19:07,377
Kevin Rudd: Well, what we Australians
do best is organize the drinks,

377
00:19:07,377 --> 00:19:10,904
so you get them together in one room,
and we suggest this and suggest that,

378
00:19:10,904 --> 00:19:12,337
then we go and get the drinks.

379
00:19:12,337 --> 00:19:14,341
But no, look, for all of us
who are friends

380
00:19:14,341 --> 00:19:16,603
of these two great countries,
America and China,

381
00:19:16,603 --> 00:19:17,942
you can do something.

382
00:19:17,942 --> 00:19:20,241
You can make a practical contribution,

383
00:19:20,241 --> 00:19:22,122
and for all you good folks here,

384
00:19:22,122 --> 00:19:23,747
next time you meet someone from China,

385
00:19:23,747 --> 00:19:25,359
sit down and have a conversation.

386
00:19:25,359 --> 00:19:28,814
See what you can find out about
where they come from and what they think,

387
00:19:28,814 --> 00:19:30,852
and my challenge for all
the Chinese folks

388
00:19:30,852 --> 00:19:33,181
who are going to watch
this TED Talk at some time

389
00:19:33,181 --> 00:19:35,542
is do the same.

390
00:19:35,542 --> 00:19:39,443
Two of us seeking to change the world
can actually make a huge difference.

391
00:19:39,443 --> 00:19:42,345
Those of us up the middle,
we can make a small contribution.

392
00:19:42,345 --> 00:19:44,701
CA: Kevin, all power to you,
my friend. Thank you.

393
00:19:44,701 --> 00:19:46,827
KR: Thank you. Thank you, folks.

394
00:19:46,827 --> 00:19:48,870
(Applause)