0:00:00.764,0:00:02.923
G'day, my name's Kevin.

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I'm from Australia. I'm here to help.

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(Laughter)

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Tonight, I want to talk about[br]a tale of two cities.

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One of those cities is called Washington,[br]and the other is called Beijing.

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Because how these two capitals[br]shape their future

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and the future of the United States[br]and the future of China

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doesn't just affect those two countries,

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it affects all of us

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in ways, perhaps, we've never thought of:

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the air we breathe, the water we drink,

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the fish we eat,[br]the quality of our oceans,

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the languages we speak in the future,

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the jobs we have,[br]the political systems we choose,

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and, of course, the great questions[br]of war and peace.

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You see that bloke? He's French.

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His name is Napoleon.

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A couple of hundred years ago,

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he made this extraordinary projection:

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"China is a sleeping lion,[br]and when she awakes,

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the world will shake."

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Napoleon got a few things wrong;

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he got this one absolutely right.

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Because China is today[br]not just woken up,

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China has stood up[br]and China is on the march,

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and the question for us all

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is where will China go

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and how do we engage[br]this giant of the 21st century?

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You start looking at the numbers,[br]they start to confront you in a big way.

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It's projected that China will become,

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by whichever measure --[br]PPP, market exchange rates --

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the largest economy in the world

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over the course of the decade ahead.

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They're already[br]the largest trading nation,

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already the largest exporting nation,

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already the largest manufacturing nation,

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and they're also the biggest[br]emitters of carbon in the world.

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America comes second.

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So if China does become[br]the world's largest economy,

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think about this:

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It'll be the first time

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since this guy was on[br]the throne of England --

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George III, not a good friend[br]of Napoleon's --

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that in the world we will have[br]as the largest economy

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a non-English speaking country,

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a non-Western country,

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a non-liberal democratic country.

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And if you don't think[br]that's going to affect

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the way in which the world[br]happens in the future,

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then personally, I think[br]you've been smoking something,

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and it doesn't mean you're from Colorado.

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So in short, the question[br]we have tonight is,

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how do we understand this mega-change,

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which I believe to be the biggest change[br]for the first half of the 21st century?

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It'll affect so many things.

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It will go to the absolute core.

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It's happening quietly.[br]It's happening persistently.

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It's happening in some senses[br]under the radar,

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as we are all preoccupied with

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what's going in Ukraine,[br]what's going on in the Middle East,

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what's going on with ISIS,[br]what's going on with ISIL,

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what's happening with[br]the future of our economies.

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This is a slow and quiet revolution.

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And with a mega-change[br]comes also a mega-challenge,

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and the mega-challenge is this:

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Can these two great countries,

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China and the United States --

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China,

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the Middle Kingdom,

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and the United States,

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Měiguó --

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which in Chinese, by the way,[br]means "the beautiful country."

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Think about that -- that's the name[br]that China has given this country

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for more than a hundred years.

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Whether these two great civilizations,[br]these two great countries,

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can in fact carve out a common future

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for themselves and for the world?

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In short, can we carve out a future

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which is peaceful and mutually prosperous,

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or are we looking at a great challenge

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of war or peace?

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And I have 15 minutes[br]to work through war or peace,

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which is a little less time

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than they gave this guy to write a book[br]called "War and Peace."

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People ask me, why is it that a kid[br]growing up in rural Australia

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got interested in learning Chinese?

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Well, there are two reasons for that.

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Here's the first of them.

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That's Betsy the cow.

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Now, Betsy the cow was one[br]of a herd of dairy cattle

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that I grew up with on a farm[br]in rural Australia.

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See those hands there?[br]These are not built for farming.

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So very early on, I discovered[br]that in fact, working in a farm

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was not designed for me,[br]and China was a very safe remove

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from any career in Australian farm life.

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Here's the second reason.

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That's my mom.

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Anyone here ever listen[br]to what their mom told them to do?

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Everyone ever do what[br]their mom told them to do?

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I rarely did,

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but what my mom said to me was,

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one day, she handed me a newspaper,

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a headline which said,[br]here we have a huge change.

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And that change is China[br]entering the United Nations.

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1971, I had just turned 14 years of age,

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and she handed me this headline.

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And she said, "Understand this, [br]learn this,

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because it's going to affect your future."

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So being a very good student of history,

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I decided that the best thing[br]for me to do was, in fact,

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to go off and learn Chinese.

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The great thing about learning Chinese

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is that your Chinese teacher[br]gives you a new name.

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And so they gave me this name:

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Kè, which means to overcome or to conquer,

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and Wén, and that's the character[br]for literature or the arts.

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Kè Wén, Conqueror of the Classics.

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Any of you guys called "Kevin"?

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It's a major lift from being called Kevin[br]to be called Conqueror of the Classics.

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(Laughter)

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I've been called Kevin all my life.

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Have you been called Kevin all your life?

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Would you prefer to be called[br]Conqueror of the Classics?

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And so I went off after that[br]and joined the Australian Foreign Service,

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but here is where pride -- before pride,[br]there always comes a fall.

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So there I am in the embassy in Beijing,

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off to the Great Hall of the People

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with our ambassador, who had asked me[br]to interpret for his first meeting

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in the Great Hall of the People.

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And so there was I.

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If you've been to a Chinese meeting,[br]it's a giant horseshoe.

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At the head of the horsehoe[br]are the really serious pooh-bahs,

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and down the end of the horseshoe[br]are the not-so-serious pooh-bahs,

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the junior woodchucks like me.

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And so the ambassador[br]began with this inelegant phrase.

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He said, "China and Australia[br]are currently enjoying a relationship

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of unprecedented closeness."

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And I thought to myself,

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"That sounds clumsy. That sounds odd.

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I will improve it."

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Note to file: Never do that.

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It needed to be a little more elegant,[br]a little more classical,

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so I rendered it as follows.

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[In Chinese]

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There was a big pause[br]on the other side of the room.

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You could see the giant pooh-bahs[br]at the head of the horseshoe,

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the blood visibly draining[br]from their faces,

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and the junior woodchucks[br]at the other end of the horseshoe

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engaged in peals of [br]unrestrained laughter.

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Because when I rendered his sentence,

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"Australia and China are [br]enjoying a relationship

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of unprecedented closeness,"

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in fact, what I said was that[br]Australia and China

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were now experiencing fantastic orgasm.

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(Laughter)

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That was the last time[br]I was asked to interpret.

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But in that little story,[br]there's a wisdom, which is,

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as soon as you think you know something[br]about this extraordinary civilization

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of 5,000 years of continuing history,

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there's always something new to learn.

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History is against us

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when it comes to the U.S. and China

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forging a common future together.

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This guy up here?

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He's not Chinese and he's not American.

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He's Greek. His name's Thucydides.

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He wrote the history[br]of the Peloponnesian Wars.

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And he made this extraordinary observation[br]

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about Athens and Sparta.

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"It was the rise of Athens[br]and the fear that this inspired in Sparta

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that made war inevitable."

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And hence, a whole literature about[br]something called the Thucydides Trap.

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This guy here? He's not American[br]and he's not Greek. He's Chinese.

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His name is Sun Tzu.[br]He wrote "The Art of War,"

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and if you see his statement underneath,[br]it's along these lines:

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"Attack him where he is unprepared,[br]appear where you are not expected."

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Not looking good so far[br]for China and the United States.

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This guy is an American.[br]His name's Graham Allison.

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In fact, he's a teacher[br]at the Kennedy School

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over there in Boston.

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He's working on a single project[br]at the moment, which is,

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does the Thucydides Trap[br]about the inevitably of war

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between rising powers[br]and established great powers

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apply to the future[br]of China-U.S. relations?

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It's a core question.

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And what Graham has done[br]is explore 15 cases in history

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since the 1500s

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to establish what the precedents are.

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And in 11 out of 15 of them,

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let me tell you,

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they've ended in catastrophic war.

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You may say, "But Kevin --

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or Conqueror of the Classics --

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that was the past.

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We live now in a world[br]of interdependence and globalization.

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It could never happen again."

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Guess what?

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The economic historians[br]tell us that in fact,

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the time which we reached[br]the greatest point

0:09:59.900,0:10:02.719
of economic integration and globalization

0:10:02.719,0:10:05.290
was in 1914,

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just before that happened, World War I,

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a sobering reflection from history.

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So if we are engaged[br]in this great question

0:10:15.065,0:10:18.270
of how China thinks, feels,

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and positions itself[br]towards the United States,

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and the reverse,

0:10:23.633,0:10:25.514
how do we get to the baseline

0:10:25.514,0:10:28.904
of how these two countries[br]and civilizations

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can possibly work together?

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Let me first go to, in fact,

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China's views of the U.S.[br]and the rest of the West.

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Number one: China feels[br]as if it's been humiliated

0:10:39.604,0:10:42.487
at the hands of the West[br]through a hundred years of history,

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beginning with the Opium Wars.

0:10:44.275,0:10:48.083
When after that, the Western powers[br]carved China up into little pieces,

0:10:48.083,0:10:50.614
so that by the time[br]it got to the '20s and '30s,

0:10:50.614,0:10:53.291
signs like this one appeared[br]on the streets of Shanghai.

0:10:53.291,0:10:54.786
["No dogs and Chinese allowed"]

0:10:54.786,0:10:56.756
How would you feel if you were Chinese, [br]

0:10:56.756,0:10:59.539
in your own country, [br]if you saw that sign appear?

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China also believes and feels

0:11:03.407,0:11:08.028
as if, in the events of 1919,[br]at the Peace Conference in Paris,

0:11:08.028,0:11:09.924
when Germany's colonies were given back

0:11:09.924,0:11:12.068
to all sorts of countries[br]around in the world,

0:11:12.068,0:11:13.926
what about German colonies in China?

0:11:13.926,0:11:16.480
They were, in fact, given to Japan.

0:11:16.480,0:11:20.589
When Japan then invaded China in the 1930s

0:11:20.589,0:11:24.257
the world looked away and was indifferent[br]to what would happen to China.

0:11:24.257,0:11:27.114
And then, on top of that,[br]the Chinese to this day believe

0:11:27.114,0:11:28.801
that the United States and the West

0:11:28.801,0:11:31.333
do not accept the legitimacy[br]of their political system

0:11:31.333,0:11:34.223
because it's so radically different[br]from those of us who come

0:11:34.223,0:11:35.513
from liberal democracies,

0:11:35.513,0:11:38.329
and believe that the United States[br]to this day is seeking

0:11:38.329,0:11:40.767
to undermine their political system.

0:11:40.767,0:11:43.785
China also believes[br]that it is being contained

0:11:43.785,0:11:48.638
by U.S. allies and by those[br]with strategic partnerships with the U.S.

0:11:48.638,0:11:51.262
right around its periphery.

0:11:51.262,0:11:53.746
And beyond all that,[br]the Chinese have this feeling

0:11:53.746,0:11:56.974
in their heart of hearts[br]and in their gut of guts

0:11:56.974,0:12:01.176
that those of us in the collective West

0:12:01.176,0:12:04.868
are just too damned arrogant.

0:12:04.868,0:12:08.815
That is, we don't recognize[br]the problems in our own system,

0:12:08.815,0:12:10.673
in our politics and our economics,

0:12:10.673,0:12:13.064
and are very quick[br]to point the finger elsewhere,

0:12:13.064,0:12:16.826
and believe that, in fact,[br]we in the collective West

0:12:16.826,0:12:20.634
are guilty of a great bunch of hypocrisy.

0:12:20.634,0:12:24.047
Of course, in international relations,

0:12:24.047,0:12:28.006
it's not just the sound[br]of one hand clapping.

0:12:28.006,0:12:30.688
There's another country too,[br]and that's called the U.S.

0:12:30.688,0:12:33.242
So how does the U.S.[br]respond to all of the above?

0:12:33.242,0:12:35.378
The U.S. has a response to each of those.

0:12:35.378,0:12:37.881
On the question of[br]is the U.S. containing China,

0:12:37.881,0:12:41.559
they say, "No, look at the history of[br]the Soviet Union. That was containment."

0:12:41.559,0:12:43.969
Instead, what we have done[br]in the U.S. and the West

0:12:43.969,0:12:45.943
is welcome China[br]into the global economy,

0:12:45.943,0:12:49.379
and on top of that, welcome them[br]into the World Trade Organization.

0:12:49.379,0:12:51.252
The U.S. and the West say China cheats

0:12:51.252,0:12:53.558
on the question[br]of intellectual property rights,

0:12:53.558,0:12:57.877
and through cyberattacks[br]on U.S. and global firms.

0:12:57.877,0:13:01.453
Furthermore, the United States[br]says that the Chinese political system

0:13:01.453,0:13:04.332
is fundamentally wrong

0:13:04.332,0:13:07.629
because it's at such fundamental variance

0:13:07.629,0:13:10.880
to the human rights, democracy,[br]and rule of law that we enjoy

0:13:10.880,0:13:13.504
in the U.S. and the collective West.

0:13:13.504,0:13:16.661
And on top of all the above,[br]what does the United States say?

0:13:16.661,0:13:21.769
That they fear that China will,[br]when it has sufficient power,

0:13:21.769,0:13:25.786
establish a sphere of influence[br]in Southeast Asia and wider East Asia,

0:13:25.786,0:13:27.690
boot the United States out,

0:13:27.690,0:13:29.710
and in time, when it's powerful enough,

0:13:29.710,0:13:33.719
unilaterally seek to change[br]the rules of the global order.

0:13:33.719,0:13:36.421
So apart from all of that,[br]it's just fine and dandy,

0:13:36.421,0:13:37.815
the U.S.-China relationship.

0:13:37.815,0:13:40.020
No real problems there.

0:13:40.020,0:13:44.942
The challenge, though,[br]is given those deep-rooted feelings,

0:13:44.942,0:13:47.937
those deep-rooted emotions[br]and thought patterns,

0:13:47.937,0:13:50.747
what the Chinese call "Sīwéi,"[br]ways of thinking,

0:13:50.747,0:13:55.205
how can we craft a basis[br]for a common future between these two?

0:13:55.205,0:13:56.836
I argue simply this:

0:13:56.836,0:13:58.781
We can do it on the basis on a framework

0:13:58.781,0:14:03.356
of constructive realism[br]for a common purpose.

0:14:03.356,0:14:05.329
What do I mean by that?

0:14:05.329,0:14:07.674
Be realistic about the things[br]that we disagree on,

0:14:07.674,0:14:09.949
and a management approach[br]that doesn't enable

0:14:09.949,0:14:12.805
any one of those differences[br]to break into war or conflict

0:14:12.805,0:14:16.358
until we've acquired[br]the diplomatic skills to solve them.

0:14:16.358,0:14:20.014
Be constructive in areas of the[br]bilateral, regional and global engagement

0:14:20.014,0:14:21.386
between the two,

0:14:21.386,0:14:24.113
which will make a difference[br]for all of humankind.

0:14:24.113,0:14:28.106
Build a regional institution[br]capable of cooperation in Asia,

0:14:28.106,0:14:30.034
an Asia-Pacific community.

0:14:30.034,0:14:32.448
And worldwide, act further,

0:14:32.448,0:14:35.072
like you've begun to do[br]at the end of last year

0:14:35.072,0:14:37.301
by striking out against climate change

0:14:37.301,0:14:41.295
with hands joined together[br]rather than fists apart.

0:14:41.295,0:14:44.197
Of course, all that happens[br]if you've got a common mechanism

0:14:44.197,0:14:46.310
and political will to achieve the above.

0:14:46.310,0:14:49.004
These things are deliverable.

0:14:49.004,0:14:53.020
But the question is,[br]are they deliverable alone?

0:14:53.020,0:14:55.969
This is what our head[br]tells us we need to do,

0:14:55.969,0:14:57.873
but what about our heart?

0:14:57.873,0:15:00.915
I have a little experience[br]in the question back home

0:15:00.915,0:15:04.235
of how you try to bring[br]together two peoples

0:15:04.235,0:15:07.857
who, frankly, haven't had[br]a whole lot in common in the past.

0:15:07.857,0:15:11.434
And that's when I apologized[br]to Australia's indigenous peoples.

0:15:11.434,0:15:15.219
This was a day of reckoning[br]in the Australian government,

0:15:15.219,0:15:17.911
the Australian parliament,[br]and for the Australian people.

0:15:17.911,0:15:22.694
After 200 years of unbridled abuse[br]towards the first Australians,

0:15:22.694,0:15:27.872
it was high time that we white folks[br]said we were sorry.

0:15:27.872,0:15:29.242
The important thing --

0:15:29.242,0:15:34.288
(Applause)

0:15:34.288,0:15:37.210
The important thing that I remember[br]is staring in the faces

0:15:37.210,0:15:39.691
of all those from Aboriginal Australia

0:15:39.691,0:15:42.500
as they came to listen to this apology.

0:15:42.500,0:15:46.308
It was extraordinary to see, for example,

0:15:46.308,0:15:50.232
old women telling me the stories[br]of when they were five years old

0:15:50.232,0:15:53.228
and literally ripped away[br]from their parents,

0:15:53.228,0:15:54.829
like this lady here.

0:15:54.829,0:15:58.962
It was extraordinary for me[br]to then be able to embrace

0:15:58.962,0:16:02.910
and to kiss Aboriginal elders[br]as they came into the parliament building,

0:16:02.910,0:16:04.166
and one woman said to me,

0:16:04.166,0:16:07.321
it's the first time a white fella[br]had ever kissed her in her life,

0:16:07.321,0:16:09.272
and she was over 70.

0:16:09.272,0:16:11.779
That's a terrible story.

0:16:11.779,0:16:14.241
And then I remember[br]this family saying to me,

0:16:14.241,0:16:18.304
"You know, we drove all the way[br]from the far North down to Canberra

0:16:18.304,0:16:19.674
to come to this thing,

0:16:19.674,0:16:21.857
drove our way through redneck country.

0:16:21.857,0:16:28.474
On the way back, stopped at a cafe[br]after the apology for a milkshake."

0:16:28.474,0:16:34.046
And they walked into this cafe[br]quietly, tentatively, gingerly,

0:16:34.046,0:16:35.509
a little anxious.

0:16:35.509,0:16:38.063
I think you know what I'm talking about.

0:16:38.063,0:16:41.871
But the day after the apology,[br]what happened?

0:16:41.871,0:16:45.981
Everyone in that cafe,[br]every one of the white folks,

0:16:45.981,0:16:48.767
stood up and applauded.

0:16:48.767,0:16:53.903
Something had happened in the hearts[br]of these people in Australia.

0:16:53.903,0:16:56.592
The white folks, our Aboriginal[br]brothers and sisters,

0:16:56.592,0:16:59.820
and we haven't solved[br]all these problems together,

0:16:59.820,0:17:03.488
but let me tell you,[br]there was a new beginning

0:17:03.488,0:17:05.904
because we had gone not just to the head,

0:17:05.904,0:17:08.562
we'd gone also to the heart.

0:17:08.562,0:17:11.433
So where does that conclude[br]in terms of the great question

0:17:11.433,0:17:13.620
that we've been asked[br]to address this evening,

0:17:13.620,0:17:16.584
which is the future[br]of U.S.-China relations?

0:17:16.584,0:17:18.883
The head says there's a way forward.

0:17:18.883,0:17:22.574
The head says there is a policy framework,[br]there's a common narrative,

0:17:22.574,0:17:24.501
there's a mechanism[br]through regular summitry

0:17:24.501,0:17:26.405
to do these things[br]and to make them better.

0:17:26.405,0:17:31.978
But the heart must also find a way[br]to reimagine the possibilities

0:17:31.978,0:17:33.882
of the America-China relationship,

0:17:33.882,0:17:37.542
and the possibilities of China's[br]future engagement in the world.

0:17:37.542,0:17:43.625
Sometimes, folks, we just need[br]to take a leap of faith

0:17:43.625,0:17:47.549
not quite knowing where we might land.

0:17:47.549,0:17:51.822
In China, they now talk about[br]the Chinese Dream.

0:17:51.822,0:17:57.348
In America, we're all familiar[br]with the term "the American Dream."

0:17:57.348,0:18:00.482
I think it's time, across the world,

0:18:00.482,0:18:05.614
that we're able to think also[br]of something we might also call

0:18:05.614,0:18:10.756
a dream for all humankind.

0:18:11.368,0:18:13.327
Because if we do that,

0:18:13.327,0:18:15.977
we might just change the way

0:18:15.977,0:18:20.529
that we think about each other.

0:18:23.923,0:18:27.034
[In Chinese]

0:18:27.034,0:18:30.401
That's my challenge to America.[br]That's my challenge to China.

0:18:30.401,0:18:32.885
That's my challenge to all of us,

0:18:32.885,0:18:36.182
but I think where there's a will[br]and where there is imagination

0:18:36.182,0:18:38.226
we can turn this into a future

0:18:38.226,0:18:40.571
driven by peace and prosperity

0:18:40.571,0:18:42.591
and not once again repeat

0:18:42.591,0:18:44.704
the tragedies of war.

0:18:44.704,0:18:46.562
I thank you.

0:18:46.562,0:18:51.997
(Applause)

0:18:51.997,0:18:55.176
Chris Anderson: Thanks so much for that.[br]Thanks so much for that.

0:18:55.176,0:18:59.773
It feels like you yourself[br]have a role to play in this bridging.

0:18:59.773,0:19:04.124
You, in a way, are uniquely placed[br]to speak to both sides.

0:19:04.124,0:19:07.377
Kevin Rudd: Well, what we Australians[br]do best is organize the drinks,

0:19:07.377,0:19:10.904
so you get them together in one room,[br]and we suggest this and suggest that,

0:19:10.904,0:19:12.337
then we go and get the drinks.

0:19:12.337,0:19:14.341
But no, look, for all of us[br]who are friends

0:19:14.341,0:19:16.603
of these two great countries,[br]America and China,

0:19:16.603,0:19:17.942
you can do something.

0:19:17.942,0:19:20.241
You can make a practical contribution,

0:19:20.241,0:19:22.122
and for all you good folks here,

0:19:22.122,0:19:23.747
next time you meet someone from China,

0:19:23.747,0:19:25.359
sit down and have a conversation.

0:19:25.359,0:19:28.814
See what you can find out about[br]where they come from and what they think,

0:19:28.814,0:19:30.852
and my challenge for all[br]the Chinese folks

0:19:30.852,0:19:33.181
who are going to watch[br]this TED Talk at some time

0:19:33.181,0:19:35.542
is do the same.

0:19:35.542,0:19:39.443
Two of us seeking to change the world[br]can actually make a huge difference.

0:19:39.443,0:19:42.345
Those of us up the middle,[br]we can make a small contribution.

0:19:42.345,0:19:44.701
CA: Kevin, all power to you,[br]my friend. Thank you.

0:19:44.701,0:19:46.827
KR: Thank you. Thank you, folks.

0:19:46.827,0:19:48.870
(Applause)