WEBVTT 00:00:01.488 --> 00:00:05.057 The most massive 00:00:05.057 --> 00:00:09.992 tsunami perfect storm 00:00:09.992 --> 00:00:13.871 is bearing down upon us. 00:00:13.871 --> 00:00:17.117 This perfect storm 00:00:17.117 --> 00:00:22.285 is mounting a grim reality, increasingly grim reality, 00:00:22.285 --> 00:00:27.235 and we are facing that reality 00:00:27.235 --> 00:00:28.616 with the full belief 00:00:28.616 --> 00:00:31.172 that we can solve our problems with technology, 00:00:31.172 --> 00:00:33.468 and that's very understandable. 00:00:33.468 --> 00:00:37.675 Now, this perfect storm that we are facing 00:00:37.675 --> 00:00:41.185 is the result of our rising population, 00:00:41.185 --> 00:00:43.989 rising towards 10 billion people, 00:00:43.989 --> 00:00:46.633 land that is turning to desert, 00:00:46.633 --> 00:00:49.741 and, of course, climate change. NOTE Paragraph 00:00:49.741 --> 00:00:52.402 Now there's no question about it at all: 00:00:52.402 --> 00:00:54.213 we will only solve the problem 00:00:54.213 --> 00:00:57.725 of replacing fossil fuels with technology. 00:00:57.725 --> 00:01:00.853 But fossil fuels, carbon -- coal and gas -- 00:01:00.853 --> 00:01:02.974 are by no means the only thing 00:01:02.974 --> 00:01:07.092 that is causing climate change. NOTE Paragraph 00:01:07.092 --> 00:01:08.975 Desertification 00:01:08.975 --> 00:01:14.301 is a fancy word for land that is turning to desert, 00:01:14.301 --> 00:01:16.602 and this happens only when 00:01:16.602 --> 00:01:18.611 we create too much bare ground. 00:01:18.611 --> 00:01:20.617 There's no other cause. 00:01:20.617 --> 00:01:22.635 And I intend to focus 00:01:22.635 --> 00:01:27.541 on most of the world's land that is turning to desert. NOTE Paragraph 00:01:27.541 --> 00:01:32.834 But I have for you a very simple message 00:01:32.834 --> 00:01:37.030 that offers more hope than you can imagine. 00:01:37.030 --> 00:01:39.098 We have environments 00:01:39.098 --> 00:01:42.342 where humidity is guaranteed throughout the year. 00:01:42.342 --> 00:01:44.846 On those, it is almost impossible 00:01:44.846 --> 00:01:47.635 to create vast areas of bare ground. 00:01:47.635 --> 00:01:51.257 No matter what you do, nature covers it up so quickly. 00:01:51.257 --> 00:01:53.004 And we have environments 00:01:53.004 --> 00:01:55.697 where we have months of humidity 00:01:55.697 --> 00:01:57.475 followed by months of dryness, 00:01:57.475 --> 00:02:00.953 and that is where desertification is occurring. 00:02:00.953 --> 00:02:03.009 Fortunately, with space technology now, 00:02:03.009 --> 00:02:04.686 we can look at it from space, 00:02:04.686 --> 00:02:08.950 and when we do, you can see the proportions fairly well. 00:02:08.950 --> 00:02:10.573 Generally, what you see in green 00:02:10.573 --> 00:02:12.428 is not desertifying, 00:02:12.428 --> 00:02:14.734 and what you see in brown is, 00:02:14.734 --> 00:02:19.106 and these are by far the greatest areas of the Earth. 00:02:19.106 --> 00:02:23.891 About two thirds, I would guess, of the world is desertifying. NOTE Paragraph 00:02:23.891 --> 00:02:26.815 I took this picture in the Tihamah Desert 00:02:26.815 --> 00:02:30.519 while 25 millimeters -- that's an inch of rain -- was falling. 00:02:30.519 --> 00:02:33.231 Think of it in terms of drums of water, 00:02:33.231 --> 00:02:35.903 each containing 200 liters. 00:02:35.903 --> 00:02:40.503 Over 1,000 drums of water fell on every hectare 00:02:40.503 --> 00:02:43.377 of that land that day. 00:02:43.377 --> 00:02:45.761 The next day, the land looked like this. 00:02:45.761 --> 00:02:48.584 Where had that water gone? 00:02:48.584 --> 00:02:50.981 Some of it ran off as flooding, 00:02:50.981 --> 00:02:53.928 but most of the water that soaked into the soil 00:02:53.928 --> 00:02:56.209 simply evaporated out again, 00:02:56.209 --> 00:02:58.578 exactly as it does in your garden 00:02:58.578 --> 00:03:01.593 if you leave the soil uncovered. 00:03:01.593 --> 00:03:05.059 Now, because the fate of water and carbon 00:03:05.059 --> 00:03:08.617 are tied to soil organic matter, 00:03:08.617 --> 00:03:12.544 when we damage soils, you give off carbon. 00:03:12.544 --> 00:03:15.370 Carbon goes back to the atmosphere. NOTE Paragraph 00:03:15.370 --> 00:03:19.475 Now you're told over and over, repeatedly, 00:03:19.475 --> 00:03:22.475 that desertification is only occurring 00:03:22.475 --> 00:03:26.124 in arid and semi-arid areas of the world, 00:03:26.124 --> 00:03:30.099 and that tall grasslands like this one 00:03:30.099 --> 00:03:33.731 in high rainfall are of no consequence. 00:03:33.731 --> 00:03:38.308 But if you do not look at grasslands but look down into them, 00:03:38.308 --> 00:03:41.019 you find that most of the soil in that grassland 00:03:41.019 --> 00:03:45.310 that you've just seen is bare and covered with a crust of algae, 00:03:45.310 --> 00:03:48.428 leading to increased runoff and evaporation. 00:03:48.428 --> 00:03:52.414 That is the cancer of desertification 00:03:52.414 --> 00:03:56.950 that we do not recognize till its terminal form. NOTE Paragraph 00:03:56.950 --> 00:04:02.262 Now we know that desertification is caused by livestock, 00:04:02.262 --> 00:04:05.046 mostly cattle, sheep and goats, 00:04:05.046 --> 00:04:07.863 overgrazing the plants, 00:04:07.863 --> 00:04:11.982 leaving the soil bare and giving off methane. 00:04:11.982 --> 00:04:14.222 Almost everybody knows this, 00:04:14.222 --> 00:04:17.057 from nobel laureates to golf caddies, 00:04:17.057 --> 00:04:19.688 or was taught it, as I was. 00:04:19.688 --> 00:04:23.158 Now, the environments like you see here, 00:04:23.158 --> 00:04:26.022 dusty environments in Africa where I grew up, 00:04:26.022 --> 00:04:28.942 and I loved wildlife, 00:04:28.942 --> 00:04:32.334 and so I grew up hating livestock 00:04:32.334 --> 00:04:34.362 because of the damage they were doing. 00:04:34.362 --> 00:04:37.646 And then my university education as an ecologist 00:04:37.646 --> 00:04:40.734 reinforced my beliefs. NOTE Paragraph 00:04:40.734 --> 00:04:46.010 Well, I have news for you. 00:04:46.010 --> 00:04:49.294 We were once just as certain 00:04:49.294 --> 00:04:51.574 that the world was flat. 00:04:51.574 --> 00:04:55.519 We were wrong then, and we are wrong again. 00:04:55.519 --> 00:04:57.694 And I want to invite you now 00:04:57.694 --> 00:05:03.948 to come along on my journey of reeducation and discovery. NOTE Paragraph 00:05:03.948 --> 00:05:06.519 When I was a young man, 00:05:06.519 --> 00:05:09.414 a young biologist in Africa, 00:05:09.414 --> 00:05:13.831 I was involved in setting aside marvelous areas 00:05:13.831 --> 00:05:16.350 as future national parks. 00:05:16.350 --> 00:05:19.777 Now no sooner — this was in the 1950s — 00:05:19.777 --> 00:05:22.945 and no sooner did we remove the hunting, 00:05:22.945 --> 00:05:26.426 drum-beating people to protect the animals, 00:05:26.426 --> 00:05:28.319 than the land began to deteriorate, 00:05:28.319 --> 00:05:32.565 as you see in this park that we formed. 00:05:32.565 --> 00:05:34.888 Now, no livestock were involved, 00:05:34.888 --> 00:05:38.520 but suspecting that we had too many elephants now, 00:05:38.520 --> 00:05:42.785 I did the research and I proved we had too many, 00:05:42.785 --> 00:05:46.369 and I recommended that we would have to reduce their numbers 00:05:46.369 --> 00:05:50.421 and bring them down to a level that the land could sustain. 00:05:50.421 --> 00:05:54.205 Now, that was a terrible decision for me to have to make, 00:05:54.205 --> 00:05:57.064 and it was political dynamite, frankly. 00:05:57.064 --> 00:06:00.189 So our government formed a team of experts 00:06:00.189 --> 00:06:02.830 to evaluate my research. 00:06:02.830 --> 00:06:05.237 They did. They agreed with me, 00:06:05.237 --> 00:06:07.148 and over the following years, 00:06:07.148 --> 00:06:13.039 we shot 40,000 elephants to try to stop the damage. 00:06:13.039 --> 00:06:16.779 And it got worse, not better. 00:06:16.779 --> 00:06:19.278 Loving elephants as I do, 00:06:19.278 --> 00:06:22.884 that was the saddest and greatest blunder of my life, 00:06:22.884 --> 00:06:25.612 and I will carry that to my grave. 00:06:25.612 --> 00:06:28.084 One good thing did come out of it. 00:06:28.084 --> 00:06:31.460 It made me absolutely determined 00:06:31.460 --> 00:06:36.940 to devote my life to finding solutions. NOTE Paragraph 00:06:36.940 --> 00:06:41.025 When I came to the United States, I got a shock, 00:06:41.025 --> 00:06:43.493 to find national parks like this one 00:06:43.493 --> 00:06:47.724 desertifying as badly as anything in Africa. 00:06:47.724 --> 00:06:49.728 And there'd been no livestock on this land 00:06:49.728 --> 00:06:52.452 for over 70 years. 00:06:52.452 --> 00:06:54.378 And I found that American scientists 00:06:54.378 --> 00:06:57.292 had no explanation for this 00:06:57.292 --> 00:07:00.252 except that it is arid and natural. 00:07:00.252 --> 00:07:03.612 So I then began looking 00:07:03.612 --> 00:07:06.863 at all the research plots I could 00:07:06.863 --> 00:07:09.566 over the whole of the Western United States 00:07:09.566 --> 00:07:11.767 where cattle had been removed 00:07:11.767 --> 00:07:14.639 to prove that it would stop desertification, 00:07:14.639 --> 00:07:16.472 but I found the opposite, 00:07:16.472 --> 00:07:19.294 as we see on this research station, 00:07:19.294 --> 00:07:23.018 where this grassland that was green in 1961, 00:07:23.018 --> 00:07:28.031 by 2002 had changed to that situation. 00:07:28.031 --> 00:07:32.750 And the authors of the position paper on climate change 00:07:32.750 --> 00:07:35.303 from which I obtained these pictures 00:07:35.303 --> 00:07:41.122 attribute this change to "unknown processes." NOTE Paragraph 00:07:41.122 --> 00:07:45.116 Clearly, we have never understood 00:07:45.116 --> 00:07:47.800 what is causing desertification, 00:07:47.800 --> 00:07:50.848 which has destroyed many civilizations 00:07:50.848 --> 00:07:53.540 and now threatens us globally. 00:07:53.540 --> 00:07:55.993 We have never understood it. 00:07:55.993 --> 00:07:58.112 Take one square meter of soil 00:07:58.112 --> 00:08:00.815 and make it bare like this is down here, 00:08:00.815 --> 00:08:03.994 and I promise you, you will find it much colder at dawn 00:08:03.994 --> 00:08:06.798 and much hotter at midday 00:08:06.798 --> 00:08:10.468 than that same piece of ground if it's just covered with litter, 00:08:10.468 --> 00:08:12.082 plant litter. 00:08:12.082 --> 00:08:15.119 You have changed the microclimate. 00:08:15.119 --> 00:08:17.218 Now, by the time you are doing that 00:08:17.218 --> 00:08:22.806 and increasing greatly the percentage of bare ground 00:08:22.806 --> 00:08:26.831 on more than half the world's land, 00:08:26.831 --> 00:08:30.061 you are changing macroclimate. 00:08:30.061 --> 00:08:32.650 But we have just simply not understood 00:08:32.650 --> 00:08:36.636 why was it beginning to happen 10,000 years ago? 00:08:36.636 --> 00:08:39.286 Why has it accelerated lately? 00:08:39.286 --> 00:08:41.253 We had no understanding of that. NOTE Paragraph 00:08:41.253 --> 00:08:44.678 What we had failed to understand 00:08:44.678 --> 00:08:48.501 was that these seasonal humidity environments of the world, 00:08:48.501 --> 00:08:51.397 the soil and the vegetation 00:08:51.397 --> 00:08:57.189 developed with very large numbers of grazing animals, 00:08:57.189 --> 00:08:59.813 and that these grazing animals 00:08:59.813 --> 00:09:05.205 developed with ferocious pack-hunting predators. 00:09:05.205 --> 00:09:09.097 Now, the main defense against pack-hunting predators 00:09:09.097 --> 00:09:11.438 is to get into herds, 00:09:11.438 --> 00:09:15.430 and the larger the herd, the safer the individuals. 00:09:15.430 --> 00:09:20.261 Now, large herds dung and urinate all over their own food, 00:09:20.261 --> 00:09:23.261 and they have to keep moving, 00:09:23.261 --> 00:09:25.178 and it was that movement 00:09:25.178 --> 00:09:27.982 that prevented the overgrazing of plants, 00:09:27.982 --> 00:09:30.381 while the periodic trampling 00:09:30.381 --> 00:09:32.901 ensured good cover of the soil, 00:09:32.901 --> 00:09:36.013 as we see where a herd has passed. NOTE Paragraph 00:09:36.013 --> 00:09:42.241 This picture is a typical seasonal grassland. 00:09:42.241 --> 00:09:45.033 It has just come through four months of rain, 00:09:45.033 --> 00:09:48.715 and it's now going into eight months of dry season. 00:09:48.715 --> 00:09:52.183 And watch the change as it goes into this long dry season. 00:09:52.183 --> 00:09:55.259 Now, all of that grass you see aboveground 00:09:55.259 --> 00:09:59.007 has to decay biologically 00:09:59.007 --> 00:10:02.531 before the next growing season, and if it doesn't, 00:10:02.531 --> 00:10:06.724 the grassland and the soil begin to die. 00:10:06.724 --> 00:10:09.919 Now, if it does not decay biologically, 00:10:09.919 --> 00:10:15.058 it shifts to oxidation, which is a very slow process, 00:10:15.058 --> 00:10:18.013 and this smothers and kills grasses, 00:10:18.013 --> 00:10:21.122 leading to a shift to woody vegetation 00:10:21.122 --> 00:10:24.542 and bare soil, releasing carbon. 00:10:24.542 --> 00:10:29.646 To prevent that, we have traditionally used fire. 00:10:29.646 --> 00:10:35.495 But fire also leaves the soil bare, releasing carbon, 00:10:35.495 --> 00:10:37.886 and worse than that, 00:10:37.886 --> 00:10:40.566 burning one hectare of grassland 00:10:40.566 --> 00:10:43.726 gives off more, and more damaging, pollutants 00:10:43.726 --> 00:10:46.640 than 6,000 cars. 00:10:46.640 --> 00:10:51.033 And we are burning in Africa, every single year, 00:10:51.033 --> 00:10:55.672 more than one billion hectares of grasslands, 00:10:55.672 --> 00:10:59.298 and almost nobody is talking about it. 00:10:59.298 --> 00:11:03.637 We justify the burning, as scientists, 00:11:03.637 --> 00:11:06.550 because it does remove the dead material 00:11:06.550 --> 00:11:09.853 and it allows the plants to grow. NOTE Paragraph 00:11:09.853 --> 00:11:12.949 Now, looking at this grassland of ours that has gone dry, 00:11:12.949 --> 00:11:15.645 what could we do to keep that healthy? 00:11:15.645 --> 00:11:18.669 And bear in mind, I'm talking of most of the world's land now. 00:11:18.669 --> 00:11:23.357 Okay? We cannot reduce animal numbers to rest it more 00:11:23.357 --> 00:11:26.973 without causing desertification and climate change. 00:11:26.973 --> 00:11:30.110 We cannot burn it without causing 00:11:30.110 --> 00:11:32.375 desertification and climate change. 00:11:32.375 --> 00:11:36.360 What are we going to do? 00:11:38.420 --> 00:11:40.810 There is only one option, 00:11:40.810 --> 00:11:43.671 I'll repeat to you, only one option 00:11:43.671 --> 00:11:46.390 left to climatologists and scientists, 00:11:46.390 --> 00:11:49.318 and that is to do the unthinkable, 00:11:49.318 --> 00:11:52.054 and to use livestock, 00:11:52.054 --> 00:11:55.009 bunched and moving, 00:11:55.009 --> 00:11:58.398 as a proxy for former herds and predators, 00:11:58.398 --> 00:12:00.142 and mimic nature. 00:12:00.142 --> 00:12:04.646 There is no other alternative left to mankind. NOTE Paragraph 00:12:04.646 --> 00:12:07.094 So let's do that. 00:12:07.094 --> 00:12:10.464 So on this bit of grassland, we'll do it, but just in the foreground. 00:12:10.464 --> 00:12:13.702 We'll impact it very heavily with cattle to mimic nature, 00:12:13.702 --> 00:12:16.526 and we've done so, and look at that. 00:12:16.526 --> 00:12:19.886 All of that grass is now covering the soil 00:12:19.886 --> 00:12:23.856 as dung, urine and litter or mulch, 00:12:23.856 --> 00:12:27.136 as every one of the gardeners amongst you would understand, 00:12:27.136 --> 00:12:31.497 and that soil is ready to absorb and hold the rain, 00:12:31.497 --> 00:12:36.504 to store carbon, and to break down methane. 00:12:36.504 --> 00:12:38.734 And we did that, 00:12:38.734 --> 00:12:41.504 without using fire to damage the soil, 00:12:41.504 --> 00:12:44.640 and the plants are free to grow. NOTE Paragraph 00:12:44.640 --> 00:12:46.904 When I first realized 00:12:46.904 --> 00:12:49.386 that we had no option as scientists 00:12:49.386 --> 00:12:52.146 but to use much-vilified livestock 00:12:52.146 --> 00:12:57.393 to address climate change and desertification, 00:12:57.393 --> 00:12:59.628 I was faced with a real dilemma. 00:12:59.628 --> 00:13:01.353 How were we to do it? 00:13:01.353 --> 00:13:05.917 We'd had 10,000 years of extremely knowledgeable pastoralists 00:13:05.917 --> 00:13:07.865 bunching and moving their animals, 00:13:07.865 --> 00:13:11.532 but they had created the great manmade deserts of the world. 00:13:11.532 --> 00:13:15.411 Then we'd had 100 years of modern rain science, 00:13:15.411 --> 00:13:18.670 and that had accelerated desertification, 00:13:18.670 --> 00:13:20.843 as we first discovered in Africa 00:13:20.843 --> 00:13:23.507 and then confirmed in the United States, 00:13:23.507 --> 00:13:25.626 and as you see in this picture 00:13:25.626 --> 00:13:28.987 of land managed by the federal government. 00:13:28.987 --> 00:13:30.888 Clearly more was needed 00:13:30.888 --> 00:13:32.977 than bunching and moving the animals, 00:13:32.977 --> 00:13:36.547 and humans, over thousands of years, 00:13:36.547 --> 00:13:40.933 had never been able to deal with nature's complexity. 00:13:40.933 --> 00:13:43.317 But we biologists and ecologists 00:13:43.317 --> 00:13:46.286 had never tackled anything as complex as this. 00:13:46.286 --> 00:13:48.925 So rather than reinvent the wheel, 00:13:48.925 --> 00:13:53.061 I began studying other professions to see if anybody had. 00:13:53.061 --> 00:13:55.533 And I found there were planning techniques 00:13:55.533 --> 00:13:59.305 that I could take and adapt to our biological need, 00:13:59.305 --> 00:14:02.002 and from those I developed what we call 00:14:02.002 --> 00:14:05.312 holistic management and planned grazing, 00:14:05.312 --> 00:14:07.111 a planning process, 00:14:07.111 --> 00:14:10.806 and that does address all of nature's complexity 00:14:10.806 --> 00:14:16.055 and our social, environmental, economic complexity. NOTE Paragraph 00:14:16.055 --> 00:14:18.719 Today, we have young women like this one 00:14:18.719 --> 00:14:21.087 teaching villages in Africa 00:14:21.087 --> 00:14:24.023 how to put their animals together into larger herds, 00:14:24.023 --> 00:14:26.727 plan their grazing to mimic nature, 00:14:26.727 --> 00:14:30.768 and where we have them hold their animals overnight -- 00:14:30.768 --> 00:14:33.027 we run them in a predator-friendly manner, 00:14:33.027 --> 00:14:35.349 because we have a lot of lands, and so on -- 00:14:35.349 --> 00:14:37.543 and where they do this and hold them overnight 00:14:37.543 --> 00:14:39.348 to prepare the crop fields, 00:14:39.348 --> 00:14:43.332 we are getting very great increases in crop yield as well. NOTE Paragraph 00:14:43.332 --> 00:14:44.949 Let's look at some results. 00:14:44.949 --> 00:14:49.173 This is land close to land that we manage in Zimbabwe. 00:14:49.173 --> 00:14:52.717 It has just come through four months of very good rains 00:14:52.717 --> 00:14:56.227 it got that year, and it's going into the long dry season. 00:14:56.227 --> 00:14:59.262 But as you can see, all of that rain, almost of all it, 00:14:59.262 --> 00:15:02.369 has evaporated from the soil surface. 00:15:02.369 --> 00:15:06.171 Their river is dry despite the rain just having ended, 00:15:06.171 --> 00:15:09.691 and we have 150,000 people 00:15:09.691 --> 00:15:13.441 on almost permanent food aid. 00:15:13.441 --> 00:15:17.937 Now let's go to our land nearby on the same day, 00:15:17.937 --> 00:15:20.777 with the same rainfall, and look at that. 00:15:20.777 --> 00:15:23.482 Our river is flowing and healthy and clean. 00:15:23.482 --> 00:15:25.969 It's fine. 00:15:25.969 --> 00:15:31.287 The production of grass, shrubs, trees, wildlife, 00:15:31.287 --> 00:15:34.143 everything is now more productive, 00:15:34.143 --> 00:15:38.248 and we have virtually no fear of dry years. 00:15:38.248 --> 00:15:43.743 And we did that by increasing the cattle and goats 00:15:43.743 --> 00:15:45.668 400 percent, 00:15:45.668 --> 00:15:48.798 planning the grazing to mimic nature 00:15:48.798 --> 00:15:51.219 and integrate them with all the elephants, buffalo, 00:15:51.219 --> 00:15:54.806 giraffe and other animals that we have. 00:15:54.806 --> 00:16:00.528 But before we began, our land looked like that. 00:16:00.528 --> 00:16:05.945 This site was bare and eroding for over 30 years 00:16:05.945 --> 00:16:08.714 regardless of what rain we got. 00:16:08.714 --> 00:16:12.332 Okay? Watch the marked tree and see the change 00:16:12.332 --> 00:16:15.985 as we use livestock to mimic nature. 00:16:15.985 --> 00:16:17.447 This was another site 00:16:17.447 --> 00:16:19.825 where it had been bare and eroding, 00:16:19.825 --> 00:16:22.529 and at the base of the marked small tree, 00:16:22.529 --> 00:16:26.817 we had lost over 30 centimeters of soil. Okay? 00:16:26.817 --> 00:16:28.426 And again, watch the change 00:16:28.426 --> 00:16:31.276 just using livestock to mimic nature. 00:16:31.276 --> 00:16:33.407 And there are fallen trees in there now, 00:16:33.407 --> 00:16:38.364 because the better land is now attracting elephants, etc. 00:16:38.364 --> 00:16:42.020 This land in Mexico was in terrible condition, 00:16:42.020 --> 00:16:43.974 and I've had to mark the hill 00:16:43.974 --> 00:16:48.161 because the change is so profound. NOTE Paragraph 00:16:48.161 --> 00:16:53.886 (Applause) NOTE Paragraph 00:16:55.721 --> 00:17:00.658 I began helping a family in the Karoo Desert in the 1970s 00:17:00.658 --> 00:17:03.626 turn the desert that you see on the right there 00:17:03.626 --> 00:17:05.560 back to grassland, 00:17:05.560 --> 00:17:09.082 and thankfully, now their grandchildren are on the land 00:17:09.082 --> 00:17:10.925 with hope for the future. 00:17:10.925 --> 00:17:13.722 And look at the amazing change in this one, 00:17:13.722 --> 00:17:16.434 where that gully has completely healed 00:17:16.434 --> 00:17:21.013 using nothing but livestock mimicking nature, 00:17:21.013 --> 00:17:25.238 and once more, we have the third generation of that family 00:17:25.238 --> 00:17:28.518 on that land with their flag still flying. NOTE Paragraph 00:17:28.518 --> 00:17:31.086 The vast grasslands of Patagonia 00:17:31.086 --> 00:17:33.162 are turning to desert as you see here. 00:17:33.162 --> 00:17:36.222 The man in the middle is an Argentinian researcher, 00:17:36.222 --> 00:17:39.866 and he has documented the steady decline of that land 00:17:39.866 --> 00:17:43.342 over the years as they kept reducing sheep numbers. 00:17:43.342 --> 00:17:48.190 They put 25,000 sheep in one flock, 00:17:48.190 --> 00:17:52.139 really mimicking nature now with planned grazing, 00:17:52.139 --> 00:17:56.482 and they have documented a 50-percent increase 00:17:56.482 --> 00:17:59.950 in the production of the land in the first year. NOTE Paragraph 00:17:59.950 --> 00:18:02.990 We now have in the violent Horn of Africa 00:18:02.990 --> 00:18:06.446 pastoralists planning their grazing to mimic nature 00:18:06.446 --> 00:18:09.942 and openly saying it is the only hope they have 00:18:09.942 --> 00:18:13.110 of saving their families and saving their culture. 00:18:13.110 --> 00:18:15.186 Ninety-five percent of that land 00:18:15.186 --> 00:18:18.846 can only feed people from animals. NOTE Paragraph 00:18:18.846 --> 00:18:20.957 I remind you that I am talking about 00:18:20.957 --> 00:18:25.398 most of the world's land here that controls our fate, 00:18:25.398 --> 00:18:28.454 including the most violent region of the world, 00:18:28.454 --> 00:18:31.406 where only animals can feed people 00:18:31.406 --> 00:18:34.710 from about 95 percent of the land. 00:18:34.710 --> 00:18:39.844 What we are doing globally is causing climate change 00:18:39.844 --> 00:18:43.140 as much as, I believe, fossil fuels, 00:18:43.140 --> 00:18:46.676 and maybe more than fossil fuels. 00:18:46.676 --> 00:18:50.351 But worse than that, it is causing hunger, poverty, 00:18:50.351 --> 00:18:53.348 violence, social breakdown and war, 00:18:53.348 --> 00:18:55.756 and as I am talking to you, 00:18:55.756 --> 00:18:58.906 millions of men, women and children 00:18:58.906 --> 00:19:01.308 are suffering and dying. 00:19:01.308 --> 00:19:04.020 And if this continues, 00:19:04.020 --> 00:19:07.814 we are unlikely to be able to stop the climate changing, 00:19:07.814 --> 00:19:12.861 even after we have eliminated the use of fossil fuels. NOTE Paragraph 00:19:12.861 --> 00:19:17.097 I believe I've shown you how we can work with nature 00:19:17.097 --> 00:19:19.553 at very low cost 00:19:19.553 --> 00:19:22.049 to reverse all this. 00:19:22.049 --> 00:19:24.481 We are already doing so 00:19:24.481 --> 00:19:28.477 on about 15 million hectares 00:19:28.477 --> 00:19:31.109 on five continents, 00:19:31.109 --> 00:19:32.736 and people who understand 00:19:32.736 --> 00:19:35.026 far more about carbon than I do 00:19:35.026 --> 00:19:38.084 calculate that, for illustrative purposes, 00:19:38.084 --> 00:19:40.878 if we do what I am showing you here, 00:19:40.878 --> 00:19:44.903 we can take enough carbon out of the atmosphere 00:19:44.903 --> 00:19:48.237 and safely store it in the grassland soils 00:19:48.237 --> 00:19:49.863 for thousands of years, 00:19:49.863 --> 00:19:54.859 and if we just do that on about half the world's grasslands 00:19:54.859 --> 00:19:56.213 that I've shown you, 00:19:56.213 --> 00:19:59.913 we can take us back to pre-industrial levels, 00:19:59.913 --> 00:20:01.554 while feeding people. 00:20:01.554 --> 00:20:04.326 I can think of almost nothing 00:20:04.326 --> 00:20:07.851 that offers more hope for our planet, 00:20:07.851 --> 00:20:10.099 for your children, 00:20:10.099 --> 00:20:12.755 and their children, and all of humanity. NOTE Paragraph 00:20:12.755 --> 00:20:16.060 Thank you. NOTE Paragraph 00:20:16.060 --> 00:20:24.172 (Applause) 00:20:24.172 --> 00:20:29.160 Thank you. (Applause) NOTE Paragraph 00:20:37.521 --> 00:20:39.241 Thank you, Chris. NOTE Paragraph 00:20:39.241 --> 00:20:42.587 Chris Anderson: Thank you. I have, 00:20:42.587 --> 00:20:44.684 and I'm sure everyone here has, 00:20:44.684 --> 00:20:48.412 A) a hundred questions, B) wants to hug you. 00:20:48.412 --> 00:20:50.171 I'm just going to ask you one quick question. 00:20:50.171 --> 00:20:53.855 When you first start this and you bring in a flock of animals, 00:20:53.855 --> 00:20:57.231 it's desert. What do they eat? How does that part work? 00:20:57.231 --> 00:20:58.222 How do you start? NOTE Paragraph 00:20:58.222 --> 00:20:59.861 Allan Savory: Well, we have done this for a long time, 00:20:59.861 --> 00:21:03.479 and the only time we have ever had to provide any feed 00:21:03.479 --> 00:21:05.248 is during mine reclamation, 00:21:05.248 --> 00:21:07.562 where it's 100 percent bare. 00:21:07.562 --> 00:21:11.918 But many years ago, we took the worst land in Zimbabwe, 00:21:11.918 --> 00:21:15.012 where I offered a £5 note 00:21:15.012 --> 00:21:17.031 in a hundred-mile drive 00:21:17.031 --> 00:21:19.151 if somebody could find one grass 00:21:19.151 --> 00:21:21.141 in a hundred-mile drive, 00:21:21.141 --> 00:21:23.927 and on that, we trebled the stocking rate, 00:21:23.927 --> 00:21:27.703 the number of animals, in the first year with no feeding, 00:21:27.703 --> 00:21:30.359 just by the movement, mimicking nature, 00:21:30.359 --> 00:21:35.134 and using a sigmoid curve, that principle. 00:21:35.134 --> 00:21:37.605 It's a little bit technical to explain here, but just that. NOTE Paragraph 00:21:37.605 --> 00:21:41.317 CA: Well, I would love to -- I mean, this such an interesting and important idea. 00:21:41.317 --> 00:21:43.309 The best people on our blog are going to come and talk to you 00:21:43.309 --> 00:21:45.941 and try and -- I want to get more on this 00:21:45.941 --> 00:21:48.893 that we could share along with the talk.AS: Wonderful. NOTE Paragraph 00:21:48.893 --> 00:21:52.429 CA: That is an astonishing talk, truly an astonishing talk, 00:21:52.429 --> 00:21:55.205 and I think you heard that we all are cheering you on your way. 00:21:55.205 --> 00:21:58.197 Thank you so much.AS: Well, thank you. Thank you. Thank you, Chris. NOTE Paragraph 00:21:58.197 --> 00:21:59.427 (Applause)