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I study the future

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of crime and terrorism,

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and frankly, I'm afraid.

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I'm afraid by what I see.

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I sincerely want to believe

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that technology can bring us

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the techno-utopia that we've been promised,

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but, you see,

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I've spent a career in law enforcement,

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and that's informed my perspective on things.

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I've been a street police officer,

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an undercover investigator,

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a counter-terrorism strategist,

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and I've worked in more than 70 countries

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around the world.

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I've had to see more than my fair share

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of violence and the darker underbelly of society,

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and that's informed my opinions.

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My work with criminals and terrorists

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has actually been highly educational.

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They have taught me a lot, and I'd like to be able

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to share some of these observations with you.

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Today I'm going to show you the flip side

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of all those technologies that we marvel at,

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the ones that we love.

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In the hands of the TED community,

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these are awesome tools which will bring about

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great change for our world,

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but in the hands of suicide bombers,

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the future can look quite different.

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I started observing

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technology and how criminals were using it

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as a young patrol officer.

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In those days, this was the height of technology.

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Laugh though you will,

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all the drug dealers and gang members

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with whom I dealt had one of these

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long before any police officer I knew did.

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Twenty years later, criminals are still using

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mobile phones, but they're also building

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their own mobile phone networks,

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like this one, which has been deployed

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in all 31 states of Mexico by the narcos.

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They have a national encrypted

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radio communications system.

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Think about that.

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Think about the innovation that went into that.

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Think about the infrastructure to build it.

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And then think about this:

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Why can't I get a cell phone signal in San Francisco? (Laughter)

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How is this possible? (Laughter) It makes no sense. (Applause)

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We consistently underestimate

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what criminals and terrorists can do.

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Technology has made our world

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increasingly open, and for the most part,

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that's great, but all of this openness

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may have unintended consequences.

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Consider the 2008 terrorist attack on Mumbai.

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The men that carried that attack out were armed

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with AK-47s, explosives and hand grenades.

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They threw these hand grenades

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at innocent people as they sat eating in cafes

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and waited to catch trains on their way home from work.

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But heavy artillery is nothing new in terrorist operations.

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Guns and bombs are nothing new.

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What was different this time

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is the way that the terrorists used

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modern information communications technologies

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to locate additional victims and slaughter them.

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They were armed with mobile phones.

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They had BlackBerries.

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They had access to satellite imagery.

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They had satellite phones, and they even had night vision goggles.

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But perhaps their greatest innovation was this.

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We've all seen pictures like this

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on television and in the news. This is an operations center.

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And the terrorists built their very own op center

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across the border in Pakistan,

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where they monitored the BBC,

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al Jazeera, CNN and Indian local stations.

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They also monitored the Internet and social media

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to monitor the progress of their attacks

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and how many people they had killed.

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They did all of this in real time.

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The innovation of the terrorist operations center

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gave terrorists unparalleled situational awareness

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and tactical advantage over the police

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and over the government.

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What did they do with this?

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They used it to great effect.

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At one point during the 60-hour siege,

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the terrorists were going room to room

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trying to find additional victims.

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They came upon a suite on the top floor

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of the hotel, and they kicked down the door

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and they found a man hiding by his bed.

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And they said to him, "Who are you,

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and what are you doing here?"

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And the man replied,

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"I'm just an innocent schoolteacher."

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Of course, the terrorists knew

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that no Indian schoolteacher stays at a suite in the Taj.

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They picked up his identification,

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and they phoned his name in to the terrorist war room,

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where the terrorist war room Googled him,

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and found a picture and called their operatives

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on the ground and said,

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"Your hostage, is he heavyset?

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Is he bald in front? Does he wear glasses?"

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"Yes, yes, yes," came the answers.

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The op center had found him and they had a match.

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He was not a schoolteacher.

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He was the second-wealthiest businessman in India,

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and after discovering this information,

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the terrorist war room gave the order

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to the terrorists on the ground in Mumbai.

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("Kill him.")

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We all worry about our privacy settings

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on Facebook,

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but the fact of the matter is,

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our openness can be used against us.

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Terrorists are doing this.

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A search engine can determine

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who shall live and who shall die.

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This is the world that we live in.

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During the Mumbai siege,

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terrorists were so dependent on technology

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that several witnesses reported that

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as the terrorists were shooting hostages with one hand,

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they were checking their mobile phone messages

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in the very other hand.

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In the end, 300 people were gravely wounded

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and over 172 men, women and children

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lost their lives that day.

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Think about what happened.

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During this 60-hour siege on Mumbai,

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10 men armed not just with weapons,

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but with technology,

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were able to bring a city of 20 million people

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to a standstill.

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Ten people brought 20 million people

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to a standstill, and this traveled around the world.

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This is what radicals can do with openness.

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This was done nearly four years ago.

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What could terrorists do today

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with the technologies available that we have?

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What will they do tomorrow?

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The ability of one to affect many

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is scaling exponentially,

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and it's scaling for good and it's scaling for evil.

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It's not just about terrorism, though.

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There's also been a big paradigm shift in crime.

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You see, you can now commit more crime as well.

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In the old days, it was a knife and a gun.

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Then criminals moved to robbing trains.

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You could rob 200 people on a train, a great innovation.

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Moving forward, the Internet

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allowed things to scale even more.

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In fact, many of you will remember

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the recent Sony PlayStation hack.

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In that incident, over 100 million people were robbed.

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Think about that.

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When in the history of humanity

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has it ever been possible for one person

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to rob 100 million?

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Of course, it's not just about stealing things.

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There are other avenues of technology

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that criminals can exploit.

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Many of you will remember this super cute video

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from the last TED,

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but not all quadcopter swarms are so nice and cute.

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They don't all have drumsticks.

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Some can be armed with HD cameras

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and do countersurveillance on protesters,

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or, as in this little bit of movie magic,

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quadcopters can be loaded with firearms

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and automatic weapons.

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Little robots are cute when they play music to you.

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When they swarm and chase you down the block

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to shoot you, a little bit less so.

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Of course, criminals and terrorists weren't the first

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to give guns to robots. We know where that started.

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But they're adapting quickly.

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Recently, the FBI arrested

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an al Qaeda affiliate in the United States,

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who was planning on using these remote-controlled

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drone aircraft to fly C4 explosives

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into government buildings in the United States.

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By the way, these travel at over 600 miles an hour.

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Every time a new technology is being introduced,

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criminals are there to exploit it.

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We've all seen 3D printers.

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We know with them that you can print

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in many materials ranging from plastic

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to chocolate to metal and even concrete.

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With great precision

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I actually was able to make this

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just the other day, a very cute little ducky.

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But I wonder to myself,

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for those people that strap bombs to their chests

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and blow themselves up,

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how might they use 3D printers?

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Perhaps like this.

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You see, if you can print in metal,

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you can print one of these,

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and in fact

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you can also print one of these too.

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The UK I know has some very strict firearms laws.

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You needn't bring the gun into the UK anymore.

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You just bring the 3D printer

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and print the gun while you're here,

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and, of course, the magazines for your bullets.

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But as these get bigger in the future,

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what other items will you be able to print?

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The technologies are allowing bigger printers.

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As we move forward,

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we'll see new technologies also, like the Internet of Things.

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Every day we're connecting more and more of our lives

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to the Internet, which means

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that the Internet of Things will soon be

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the Internet of Things To Be Hacked.

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All of the physical objects in our space

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are being transformed into information technologies,

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and that has a radical implication for our security,

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because more connections to more devices

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means more vulnerabilities.

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Criminals understand this.

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Terrorists understand this. Hackers understand this.

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If you control the code, you control the world.

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This is the future that awaits us.

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There has not yet been an operating system

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or a technology that hasn't been hacked.

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That's troubling, since the human body itself

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is now becoming an information technology.

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As we've seen here, we're transforming ourselves into cyborgs.

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Every year, thousands of cochlear implants,

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diabetic pumps, pacemakers

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and defibrillators are being implanted in people.

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In the United States, there are 60,000 people

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who have a pacemaker that connects to the Internet.

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The defibrillators allow a physician at a distance

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to give a shock to a heart

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in case a patient needs it.

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But if you don't need it,

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and somebody else gives you the shock,

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it's not a good thing.

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Of course, we're going to go even deeper than the human body.

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We're going down to the cellular level these days.

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Up until this point, all the technologies

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I've been talking about have been silicon-based, ones and zeroes,

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but there's another operating system out there:

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the original operating system, DNA.

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And to hackers, DNA is just another operating system

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waiting to be hacked.

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It's a great challenge for them.

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There are people already working on hacking the software of life,

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and while most of them are doing this to great good

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and to help us all,

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some won't be.

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So how will criminals abuse this?

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Well, with synthetic biology you can do some pretty neat things.

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For example, I predict that we will move away

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from a plant-based narcotics world

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to a synthetic one. Why do you need the plants anymore?

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You can just take the DNA code from marijuana

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or poppies or coca leaves

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and cut and past that gene

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and put it into yeast,

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and you can take those yeast

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and make them make the cocaine for you,

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or the marijuana, or any other drug.

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So how we use yeast in the future

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is going to be really interesting.

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In fact, we may have some really interesting bread and beer

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as we go into this next century.

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The cost of sequencing the human genome is dropping precipitously.

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It was proceeding at Moore's Law pace,

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but then in 2008, something changed.

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The technologies got better,

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and now DNA sequencing is proceeding at a pace

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00:13:05,824 --> 00:13:08,942
five times that of Moore's Law.

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That has significant implications for us.

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00:13:12,766 --> 00:13:15,509
It took us 30 years to get from

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the introduction of the personal computer

285
00:13:17,665 --> 00:13:19,894
to the level of cybercrime we have today,

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00:13:19,894 --> 00:13:23,521
but looking at how biology is proceeding so rapidly,

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and knowing criminals and terrorists as I do,

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we may get there a lot faster

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with biocrime in the future.

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It will be easy for anybody to go ahead

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00:13:31,962 --> 00:13:33,842
and print their own bio-virus,

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enhanced versions of ebola or anthrax,

293
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weaponized flu.

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We recently saw a case where some researchers

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made the H5N1 avian influenza virus more potent.

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It already has a 70 percent mortality rate

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if you get it, but it's hard to get.

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Engineers, by moving around a small number

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of genetic changes,

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were able to weaponize it

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and make it much more easy for human beings to catch,

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so that not thousands of people would die,

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but tens of millions.

304
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You see, you can go ahead and create

305
00:14:07,044 --> 00:14:09,025
new pandemics, and the researchers who did this

306
00:14:09,025 --> 00:14:10,537
were so proud of their accomplishments,

307
00:14:10,537 --> 00:14:12,426
they wanted to publish it openly

308
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so that everybody could see this

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and get access to this information.

310
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But it goes deeper than that.

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DNA researcher Andrew Hessel

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00:14:22,410 --> 00:14:23,807
has pointed out quite rightly

313
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that if you can use cancer treatments,

314
00:14:26,090 --> 00:14:27,218
modern cancer treatments,

315
00:14:27,218 --> 00:14:30,167
to go after one cell while leaving all the other cells

316
00:14:30,167 --> 00:14:31,823
around it intact,

317
00:14:31,823 --> 00:14:35,967
then you can also go after any one person's cell.

318
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Personalized cancer treatments

319
00:14:37,945 --> 00:14:40,559
are the flip side of personalized bioweapons,

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00:14:40,559 --> 00:14:43,945
which means you can attack any one individual,

321
00:14:43,945 --> 00:14:48,128
including all the people in this picture.

322
00:14:48,128 --> 00:14:52,256
How will we protect them in the future?

323
00:14:52,256 --> 00:14:55,066
What to do? What to do about all this?

324
00:14:55,066 --> 00:14:57,561
That's what I get asked all the time.

325
00:14:57,561 --> 00:14:59,148
For those of you who follow me on Twitter,

326
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I will be tweeting out the answer later on today. (Laughter)

327
00:15:03,678 --> 00:15:06,313
Actually, it's a bit more complex than that,

328
00:15:06,313 --> 00:15:08,392
and there are no magic bullets.

329
00:15:08,392 --> 00:15:10,104
I don't have all the answers,

330
00:15:10,104 --> 00:15:11,768
but I know a few things.

331
00:15:11,768 --> 00:15:14,465
In the wake of 9/11,

332
00:15:14,465 --> 00:15:17,255
the best security minds

333
00:15:17,255 --> 00:15:19,239
put together all their innovation

334
00:15:19,239 --> 00:15:23,378
and this is what they created for security.

335
00:15:23,378 --> 00:15:27,399
If you're expecting the people who built this to protect you

336
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from the coming robopocalypse — (Laughter)

337
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— uh, you may want to have a backup plan. (Laughter)

338
00:15:34,067 --> 00:15:40,266
Just saying. Just think about that. (Applause)

339
00:15:40,266 --> 00:15:43,185
Law enforcement is currently a closed system.

340
00:15:43,185 --> 00:15:45,987
It's nation-based, while the threat is international.

341
00:15:45,987 --> 00:15:49,935
Policing doesn't scale globally. At least, it hasn't,

342
00:15:49,935 --> 00:15:54,218
and our current system of guns, border guards, big gates and fences

343
00:15:54,218 --> 00:15:57,329
are outdated in the new world into which we're moving.

344
00:15:57,329 --> 00:15:59,605
So how might we prepare for some of these specific threats,

345
00:15:59,605 --> 00:16:02,028
like attacking a president or a prime minister?

346
00:16:02,028 --> 00:16:04,165
This would be the natural government response,

347
00:16:04,165 --> 00:16:06,442
to hide away all our government leaders

348
00:16:06,442 --> 00:16:08,253
in hermetically sealed bubbles.

349
00:16:08,253 --> 00:16:10,085
But this is not going to work.

350
00:16:10,085 --> 00:16:13,221
The cost of doing a DNA sequence is going to be trivial.

351
00:16:13,221 --> 00:16:16,466
Anybody will have it and we will all have them in the future.

352
00:16:16,466 --> 00:16:19,919
So maybe there's a more radical way that we can look at this.

353
00:16:19,923 --> 00:16:21,851
What happens if we were to take

354
00:16:21,851 --> 00:16:25,051
the President's DNA, or a king or queen's,

355
00:16:25,051 --> 00:16:27,387
and put it out to a group of a few hundred

356
00:16:27,387 --> 00:16:29,283
trusted researchers so they could

357
00:16:29,283 --> 00:16:32,219
study that DNA and do penetration testing against it

358
00:16:32,219 --> 00:16:34,427
as a means of helping our leaders?

359
00:16:34,427 --> 00:16:36,684
Or what if we sent it out to a few thousand?

360
00:16:36,684 --> 00:16:39,346
Or, controversially, and not without its risks,

361
00:16:39,346 --> 00:16:42,205
what happens if we just gave it to the whole public?

362
00:16:42,205 --> 00:16:45,770
Then we could all be engaged in helping.

363
00:16:45,770 --> 00:16:48,386
We've already seen examples of this working well.

364
00:16:48,386 --> 00:16:51,314
The Organized Crime and Corruption Reporting Project

365
00:16:51,314 --> 00:16:52,986
is staffed by journalists and citizens

366
00:16:52,986 --> 00:16:54,722
where they are crowd-sourcing

367
00:16:54,722 --> 00:16:57,335
what dictators and terrorists are doing

368
00:16:57,335 --> 00:16:59,017
with public funds around the world,

369
00:16:59,017 --> 00:17:00,684
and, in a more dramatic case,

370
00:17:00,684 --> 00:17:02,988
we've seen in Mexico,

371
00:17:02,988 --> 00:17:04,612
a country that has been racked

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00:17:04,612 --> 00:17:08,625
by 50,000 narcotics-related murders

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in the past six years.

374
00:17:10,391 --> 00:17:11,766
They're killing so many people

375
00:17:11,766 --> 00:17:14,046
they can't even afford to bury them all

376
00:17:14,046 --> 00:17:15,815
in anything but these unmarked graves

377
00:17:15,815 --> 00:17:19,220
like this one outside of Ciudad Juarez.

378
00:17:19,220 --> 00:17:22,328
What can we do about this? The government has proven ineffective.

379
00:17:22,328 --> 00:17:25,465
So in Mexico, citizens, at great risk to themselves,

380
00:17:25,465 --> 00:17:29,544
are fighting back to build an effective solution.

381
00:17:29,544 --> 00:17:33,728
They're crowd-mapping the activities of the drug dealers.

382
00:17:33,728 --> 00:17:35,520
Whether or not you realize it,

383
00:17:35,520 --> 00:17:39,205
we are at the dawn of a technological arms race,

384
00:17:39,205 --> 00:17:40,983
an arms race between people

385
00:17:40,983 --> 00:17:42,745
who are using technology for good

386
00:17:42,745 --> 00:17:44,953
and those who are using it for ill.

387
00:17:44,953 --> 00:17:49,314
The threat is serious, and the time to prepare for it is now.

388
00:17:49,314 --> 00:17:52,747
I can assure you that the terrorists and criminals are.

389
00:17:52,747 --> 00:17:54,850
My personal belief is that,

390
00:17:54,850 --> 00:17:56,795
rather than having a small, elite force

391
00:17:56,795 --> 00:17:58,835
of highly trained government agents

392
00:17:58,835 --> 00:18:00,556
here to protect us all,

393
00:18:00,556 --> 00:18:02,259
we're much better off

394
00:18:02,259 --> 00:18:04,338
having average and ordinary citizens

395
00:18:04,338 --> 00:18:06,762
approaching this problem as a group

396
00:18:06,762 --> 00:18:08,075
and seeing what we can do.

397
00:18:08,075 --> 00:18:09,324
If we all do our part,

398
00:18:09,324 --> 00:18:11,651
I think we'll be in a much better space.

399
00:18:11,651 --> 00:18:13,118
The tools to change the world

400
00:18:13,118 --> 00:18:14,811
are in everybody's hands.

401
00:18:14,811 --> 00:18:17,650
How we use them is not just up to me,

402
00:18:17,650 --> 00:18:20,132
it's up to all of us.

403
00:18:20,132 --> 00:18:22,765
This was a technology I would frequently deploy

404
00:18:22,765 --> 00:18:24,686
as a police officer.

405
00:18:24,686 --> 00:18:28,461
This technology has become outdated in our current world.

406
00:18:28,474 --> 00:18:31,186
It doesn't scale, it doesn't work globally,

407
00:18:31,186 --> 00:18:33,258
and it surely doesn't work virtually.

408
00:18:33,258 --> 00:18:36,526
We've seen paradigm shifts in crime and terrorism.

409
00:18:36,526 --> 00:18:40,873
They call for a shift to a more open form

410
00:18:40,873 --> 00:18:45,770
and a more participatory form of law enforcement.

411
00:18:45,770 --> 00:18:48,409
So I invite you to join me.

412
00:18:48,409 --> 00:18:53,597
After all, public safety is too important to leave to the professionals.

413
00:18:53,597 --> 00:18:56,404
Thank you. (Applause)

414
00:18:56,404 --> 00:19:04,285
(Applause)