WEBVTT 00:00:00.000 --> 00:00:04.216 _________________ 00:00:04.216 --> 00:00:08.432 ________________ 00:00:08.432 --> 00:00:16.865 ________________ 00:00:16.865 --> 00:00:33.730 Животът.. всичко е за оцеляването и никой от нас не знае колко му остава на тази планета. 00:00:34.120 --> 00:00:38.230 Нашата задача, като вид е да предвиждаме и 00:00:38.230 --> 00:00:40.210 елиминираме заплахите за нашето оцеляване. 00:00:40.210 --> 00:00:47.210 Коя ли е най-голямата заплаха? Замърсяването? Болестите? Природните бедствия? 00:00:56.550 --> 00:01:00.660 Вглеждайки се сме открили и идентифицирали доста потенциални заплахи, 00:01:00.660 --> 00:01:06.560 и затова имаме "война срещу тероризма", "война срещу престъпленията", наркотиците, ракът... 00:01:06.560 --> 00:01:12.509 но замисляме ли се над основните ни животоподържащи нужди? 00:01:12.509 --> 00:01:18.820 По принцип не е нужно, защото за щастие имаме система, система при която 00:01:18.820 --> 00:01:23.810 цената на тези нужди може да се плати. Можеш да работиш за пари, които 00:01:23.810 --> 00:01:29.100 да ти осигурят храна, вода и дом, и е добре, че имаме такава 00:01:29.100 --> 00:01:36.100 система, защото без пари си загубен. А, ако останеш без работа 00:01:36.220 --> 00:01:42.780 пак няма нужда да се притесняваш, защото имаме и друга система. Ако не си на работа, 00:01:42.780 --> 00:01:47.649 независимо защо, просто кандидатстваш за социална помощ. 00:01:47.649 --> 00:01:53.720 Понеже всички работещи плащат данъци, а правителството разбира, че определен 00:01:53.720 --> 00:02:00.020 процент безработица е нормално да се очаква, те просто отделят част от парите 00:02:00.020 --> 00:02:05.880 от данъци и ги прехвърлят към безработните хора, чрез магическия процес на преразпределението. 00:02:05.880 --> 00:02:12.880 Но това те кара да се замислиш. Ако това е голямото ни решение, то къде е границата? 00:02:16.340 --> 00:02:23.340 Какво ниво на безработица можем да подържаме? И какво би се случило, ако изведнъж работните места 00:02:27.340 --> 00:02:29.750 изчезнат? 00:02:29.750 --> 00:02:34.319 Светът е изправен пред огромно предизвикателство и е нужно да се открият, чуйте това, 00:02:34.319 --> 00:02:37.249 шестотин милиона работни позиции, за да има икономически растеж и социална сплотеност. 00:02:37.249 --> 00:02:40.179 ____________ 00:02:40.179 --> 00:02:43.109 Maveric Media представя: 00:02:43.109 --> 00:02:50.109 Defence giant BAE SYSTEMS has confirmed its cutting almost three thousand jobs at sites 00:02:52.209 --> 00:02:55.980 across the country. Tata Steel which employs nineteen thousand 00:02:55.980 --> 00:03:00.680 people in its UK steel business has announced it is cutting nine hundred jobs around the 00:03:00.680 --> 00:03:03.150 UK Another blow to the region's economy today 00:03:03.150 --> 00:03:08.450 as the energy giant EON has announced that six hundred jobs are to go at a call centre 00:03:08.450 --> 00:03:11.689 in Essox The Phyzer facility in Kent, the world's 00:03:11.689 --> 00:03:16.959 biggest drugs company runs the UKs largest foreign owned research and developments facility. 00:03:16.959 --> 00:03:21.900 It will close entirely with the loss of most of two thousand four hundred jobs. 00:03:21.900 --> 00:03:26.489 Ford has announced to trade union representatives that it will cease manufacturing cars in the 00:03:26.489 --> 00:03:31.010 UK after more than one hundred years. Japans Honda is to cut around eight hundred 00:03:31.010 --> 00:03:34.569 jobs at its plant near Swindon in south-west England. 00:03:34.569 --> 00:03:38.950 And we start tonight with news at the BBC has announced cuts and job losses across the 00:03:38.950 --> 00:03:41.859 region as part of a plan to make twenty percent savings 00:03:41.859 --> 00:03:46.730 Hundreds of police jobs have already been slashed with thousands more under threat 00:03:46.730 --> 00:03:51.139 Kodak the firm that invented the handheld camera and remains one of Americas best known 00:03:51.139 --> 00:03:57.389 brands has filed for bankruptcy protection. Rangers football club one of the most famous 00:03:57.389 --> 00:04:01.219 in Britain has announced its gone into administration. More than three hundred of the eight hundred 00:04:01.219 --> 00:04:05.930 stores that Woolworths use to occupy are still standing empty more than a year and a half 00:04:05.930 --> 00:04:10.310 after it collapsed at the end of 2008. More retailers are expected to go bust over 00:04:10.310 --> 00:04:13.529 the next few months. All one hundred and eighty seven outlets are 00:04:13.529 --> 00:04:17.510 to be shut with the loss of almost fourteen hundred jobs, the administrator said that 00:04:17.510 --> 00:04:23.450 it is apparent we cannot continue to trade. It was once Britain's biggest sports retailer 00:04:23.450 --> 00:04:26.560 but today JJB SPORTS announced plans to go into administration. 00:04:26.560 --> 00:04:31.120 Six and a half thousand jobs are at risk after electrical retailer Comet announced it's 00:04:31.120 --> 00:04:34.980 going into administration. More than four thousand jobs at risk after 00:04:34.980 --> 00:04:37.150 HMV announced that it was going into administration, it follows other chains. 00:04:37.150 --> 00:04:43.060 Its Blockbuster, its become the latest casualty on the high-street this week, a quarter of 00:04:43.060 --> 00:04:47.150 its stores are going to close, more than seven hundred people are going to be made redundant. 00:04:47.150 --> 00:04:51.290 There's serious doubts now about the future of around six thousand jobs around the UK 00:04:51.290 --> 00:04:51.680 after the company asked for its shares to be suspended last Wednesday. 00:04:51.680 --> 00:04:53.900 Former LaSenza employees have come to the decision to occupy the store as a direct consequence 00:04:53.900 --> 00:05:00.380 of the actions of management. A buyer hasn't been found with the group 00:05:00.380 --> 00:05:06.980 currently employs a total of nearly four thousand staff. 00:05:06.980 --> 00:05:11.850 Taiwan's IT giant FOXCONN announced its plans to replace up to half a million human 00:05:11.850 --> 00:05:16.120 workers with robots in the next three years. It's called "scan as you shop" customers 00:05:16.120 --> 00:05:21.860 love it. It's a very simple system. Each load is almost three hundred tons, but 00:05:21.860 --> 00:05:25.280 look closely. There's no one behind the wheel. 00:05:25.280 --> 00:05:30.010 The facility boasts the first robotics system in the UK to deliver supplies such as linen 00:05:30.010 --> 00:05:37.010 and food and an automated robotic pharmacy. 00:05:40.190 --> 00:05:47.190 A Sam Vallely FILM 00:05:49.800 --> 00:05:56.800 Will work for food 00:06:02.600 --> 00:06:09.600 Will work for free 00:06:15.400 --> 00:06:18.700 This isn't the first time unemployment has been a threat to this system. 00:06:18.700 --> 00:06:25.080 20 years ago, UK unemployment accounted for 10% of the population. It marked one of the 00:06:25.080 --> 00:06:32.080 worst recessions in our history with significant waves of rioting. However in ninety three, 00:06:32.620 --> 00:06:37.250 unemployment took a turn, somehow the jobs came back and things got better. 00:06:37.250 --> 00:06:44.250 This growth in employment is just what we needed, however it only lasted till two thousand 00:06:44.510 --> 00:06:51.510 one. Then the rates stagnated, the increased. By two thousand nine we were back to around 00:06:52.790 --> 00:06:57.550 eight percent. But it's reassuring to see the recent trends of unemployment have slowed 00:06:57.550 --> 00:07:04.550 since then. Or at least it would be reassuring, if it weren't for this. This chart shows 00:07:04.870 --> 00:07:11.010 the trends of part time versus full time employment. Notice how the increase in part time employment 00:07:11.010 --> 00:07:16.330 runs almost parallel to the decrease of full time employment. So, where one person may 00:07:16.330 --> 00:07:23.330 have been working say, a 40 hours week contract... now, two people would each be contracted 20 00:07:23.540 --> 00:07:30.540 hour, and funnily enough, this cross over section occurred in two thousand nine. So 00:07:31.370 --> 00:07:37.210 because technically more people are employed, the rates falsely imply a slight slowing down 00:07:37.210 --> 00:07:44.210 of job loss, but in reality, the amount of avalible work is shrinking and the economy 00:07:44.510 --> 00:07:49.220 is only getting worse. Sso what happened last time we were in this 00:07:49.220 --> 00:07:56.220 mess going? let's go back to 93, what changed? Was it an orderly street protest which brought 00:07:57.020 --> 00:08:00.270 back the jobs? Perhaps it was some well thought out policy 00:08:00.270 --> 00:08:05.530 from parliament that changed things. Maybe everyone just stopped being lazy and 00:08:05.530 --> 00:08:12.530 simultaneously arrived at the decision to go out there and get a job. But maybe it has 00:08:12.910 --> 00:08:18.430 something to do with technology. In 93 Microsoft realised their Windows NT 00:08:18.430 --> 00:08:23.240 operating system, Intel developed the first Pentium processor and the National Centre 00:08:23.240 --> 00:08:29.340 for Supercomputing Applications released version 1 of "Mosaic" which was to be world's 00:08:29.340 --> 00:08:34.140 first internet web browser. It is estimated the Internet grew throughout the 90's at 00:08:34.140 --> 00:08:41.140 a rate of 100% per year. Subsequently improving global communication and creating many jobs 00:08:41.360 --> 00:08:46.670 within developed countries. Now to remove any speculation as to whether or not this 00:08:46.670 --> 00:08:51.130 was the reason for the growth in jobs, it should be noted that throughout the nineties, 00:08:51.130 --> 00:08:58.130 our employment trends were almost identical to the U.S. trends and in a 2007 paper, a 00:08:58.450 --> 00:09:04.449 team of Harvard economists found "the economic expansion of the nineties was in fact driven 00:09:04.449 --> 00:09:11.449 by the increased efficiency in the production of IT, including computing, software and telecommunication. 00:09:12.249 --> 00:09:16.889 The birth of the internet had propelled us in to a new age and saved us from further 00:09:16.889 --> 00:09:23.240 degradation. However, while emerging technology is responsible for having created many new 00:09:23.240 --> 00:09:29.470 jobs, technology has been known to replace jobs throughout history. 00:09:29.470 --> 00:09:33.720 When employment stagnated in two thousand one, this wasn't because technology had 00:09:33.720 --> 00:09:40.620 stopped expanding or that there weren't any new ideas, the stagnation is simply because 00:09:40.620 --> 00:09:46.769 technology is ever improving, and the numbers of new jobs were being matched by the number 00:09:46.769 --> 00:09:48.569 of job losses. 00:09:48.569 --> 00:09:54.129 Economists will always deny that technology replaces jobs. It's called the Lump of labour 00:09:54.129 --> 00:10:00.540 fallacy. Essentially it's the notion that technology merely redistributes human workers, 00:10:00.540 --> 00:10:06.290 the jobs which become obsolete or automated simply allow humans to explore new sectors, 00:10:06.290 --> 00:10:12.509 perhaps even invent new industries which have yet to be conceived of. Well, while this idea 00:10:12.509 --> 00:10:18.319 may have been partially true in the past, the argument simply doesn't hold up anymore. 00:10:18.319 --> 00:10:24.310 Computers these days are much smaller, faster and durable, with ever increasing mobility, 00:10:24.310 --> 00:10:30.379 dexterity and artificial intelligence. They also become cheaper as time goes on. Moore's 00:10:30.379 --> 00:10:36.129 law demonstrates how computer processing power doubles approximately every eighteen months. 00:10:36.129 --> 00:10:41.980 So even if we were to create new jobs... why are we pretending we would give these jobs 00:10:41.980 --> 00:10:43.499 to humans? 00:10:43.499 --> 00:10:50.499 So what does the government have to say about all this? Well In June of 2011 not knowing 00:10:51.279 --> 00:10:58.230 what to do with the increasing unemployment, they invested ВЈ5B in the welfare to work 00:10:58.230 --> 00:11:05.019 scheme, also known as the work program. This five year program promises to help 2.4 million 00:11:05.019 --> 00:11:11.470 people, find and secure long term employment by paying private companies to do the work 00:11:11.470 --> 00:11:17.499 of actually looking for jobs on behalf of their unemployed clients. 00:11:17.499 --> 00:11:22.059 One year later the department for work and pensions released the figures. Turns out the 00:11:22.059 --> 00:11:29.059 work program was a complete failure... only 3.4% of all those who signed up to the program 00:11:29.439 --> 00:11:36.439 actually found work. 3.4%! Let's just put that into context. What percentage of people 00:11:37.939 --> 00:11:44.939 looking for work, gained employment without the help of the program? 1%? 2%? Well the 00:11:47.160 --> 00:11:54.160 figures from the same period showed 5.5%... That's right; if you are assigned to a program 00:11:54.939 --> 00:12:00.720 you are statistically less likely to find a job. Now, the failure of the work program 00:12:00.720 --> 00:12:07.379 can be largely attributed to the lack of available jobs, but perhaps there's another factor, 00:12:07.379 --> 00:12:14.379 in joining the program, if you find a job, you forfeit your right to minimum wage employment 00:12:14.889 --> 00:12:20.350 and in place you are subsidised with an amount equivalent to job seekers allowance. Making 00:12:20.350 --> 00:12:27.350 the work program essentially a paid slavery scheme, excused under the guise of gaining 00:12:28.139 --> 00:12:35.139 experience. In late 2012, university graduate Cait Reilly disputed the legality of the program 00:12:35.579 --> 00:12:41.550 after being assigned to stacking shelves in Poundland. Initially the appeal was rejected; 00:12:41.550 --> 00:12:48.160 however after further appeal by 2013 three judges had ruled "the regulations, under 00:12:48.160 --> 00:12:53.459 which most of the back-to-work schemes were created, are unlawful" 00:12:53.459 --> 00:12:59.480 Whatever the government's response to this ruling will be, they will not stop in their 00:12:59.480 --> 00:13:05.629 efforts to resolve the threat of unemployment, but let's face it. Unemployment is not a 00:13:05.629 --> 00:13:10.189 threat to this system for the reasons we are usually given by mainstream outlets. Forget 00:13:10.189 --> 00:13:16.899 all the noise about the recession, benefit cheats, immigration or this idea that people 00:13:16.899 --> 00:13:21.369 are simply too lazy to look for a job. 00:13:21.369 --> 00:13:28.079 Atomisation, thus technological unemployment is a mathematical inevitability of a system 00:13:28.079 --> 00:13:34.709 based on perpetual growth. And this pending eventuality is vastly misunderstood by the 00:13:34.709 --> 00:13:41.430 majority. And not just the majority of voters, there isn't a single politician who acknowledges 00:13:41.430 --> 00:13:48.180 let alone understands the implications of technological unemployment. And what's worse, 00:13:48.180 --> 00:13:55.180 when human beings don't understand something, that's where fear comes from. We fear what 00:13:55.329 --> 00:13:58.680 we don't understand, and we fight what we don't understand. 00:13:58.680 --> 00:14:02.649 Ok I have a very concrete question for you because you're getting wrapped up in this 00:14:02.649 --> 00:14:07.550 money and regulators and who is at fault. Technological automation is replacing jobs 00:14:07.550 --> 00:14:11.519 at the moment and it has been forever, it's doubling every year, that's the rate regardless 00:14:11.519 --> 00:14:16.100 of what financial system you have and what regulators you put in their place. So, without 00:14:16.100 --> 00:14:20.519 jobs as a basis for the economy, it's not really a question more of a statement, your 00:14:20.519 --> 00:14:22.420 system is going to be obsolete and in fact your very lucky that you've been working 00:14:22.420 --> 00:14:25.389 this long because you get to get out at the last floor, its going away. 00:14:25.389 --> 00:14:32.389 Yeah but on the other side of the coin I fear for my children. Absolutely, absolutely so 00:14:51.429 --> 00:14:57.110 why are you a fan of the banks then? 00:14:57.110 --> 00:14:57.360 Retail High-street 00:14:57.220 --> 00:15:01.470 In recent times high street shops have been disappearing at staggering rates, taking thousands 00:15:01.470 --> 00:15:04.600 of jobs with them. 1998 - 2009 First Quench Retailing 00:15:04.600 --> 00:15:06.499 1909 - 2009 Woolworths 1973 - 2011 Hawkin's Bazaar 00:15:06.499 --> 00:15:08.689 1999 - 2011 D2 Jeans 1990 - 2011 Officers Club 00:15:08.689 --> 00:15:10.600 1987 - 2011 Focus DIY 1931 - 2012 Blacks 00:15:10.600 --> 00:15:12.809 1990 - 2012 La Senza 2008 - 2012 Best Buy Europe 00:15:12.809 --> 00:15:14.290 1968 - 2012 Clinton Cards 1903 - 2012 Barratts 00:15:14.290 --> 00:15:15.569 1993 - 2012 Gamestation 1933 - 2012 Comet 00:15:15.569 --> 00:15:17.269 1991 - 2012 Optical Express 1971 - 2012 JJB Sports 00:15:17.269 --> 00:15:18.550 1963 - 2012 Oddbins 1992 - 2012 Game Group 00:15:18.550 --> 00:15:19.660 1921 - 2012 HMV 1935 - 2013 Jessops 00:15:19.660 --> 00:15:23.439 1934 - 2013 Ethel Austin 1985 - 2013 Blockbuster and more. 00:15:23.439 --> 00:15:27.809 Now, it's obvious some of these stores have not disappeared entirely. Many have moved 00:15:27.809 --> 00:15:34.089 into warehouse distribution and their stores still exist in the form of websites; you may 00:15:34.089 --> 00:15:37.529 also be wondering why I have included companies like Game in this list, since there are in 00:15:37.529 --> 00:15:44.529 fact GAME stores on the high street today. Well I do so to make a point, see in 2012 00:15:45.550 --> 00:15:50.470 when GAME went bust, the Swedish "Nordic Games" acquiesced the GAME Group, they acquired the 00:15:50.470 --> 00:15:55.939 brand as well as the companies stores and employee contracts. But this is actually a 00:15:55.939 --> 00:16:02.629 different company altogether. GAME wasn't resurrected through strategical advertising, 00:16:02.629 --> 00:16:09.629 market booms or stern administrative decisions. The company we all knew as "GAME" went 00:16:10.290 --> 00:16:16.949 bust... It lost. But GAME still had brand status. If it didn't, these shops fronts 00:16:16.949 --> 00:16:20.519 would read "Nordic Games". 00:16:20.519 --> 00:16:26.110 So why is there so much failure in retail? Are we merely witnessing the natural boom 00:16:26.110 --> 00:16:33.110 and bust cycles of free market economics? Or are we actually witnessing a retail transition? 00:16:33.329 --> 00:16:38.420 Looking back, our high streets were consisted of small family owned businesses, but the 00:16:38.420 --> 00:16:44.149 more companies grows, mergers and acquisitions become inevitable and the smaller stores get 00:16:44.149 --> 00:16:48.170 phased out as they struggle to compete for market share, eventually being replaced by 00:16:48.170 --> 00:16:54.069 conglomerates. In much the same way, a natural evolution 00:16:54.069 --> 00:16:59.860 of retail is occurring again. Only this time the shops are being phased out and the replacement 00:16:59.860 --> 00:17:06.859 is coming in the form of websites. And software applications, which are conveniently accessible 00:17:07.280 --> 00:17:13.980 with smart phones, are subsequently reduce our dependency on outlets such as high-street 00:17:13.980 --> 00:17:20.130 banks, betting shops and travel agencies. You've probably already witnessed technological 00:17:20.130 --> 00:17:24.420 unemployment on some level. For camera and film orientated shops like Jessops, it's 00:17:24.420 --> 00:17:29.720 not so hard to understand. Barely anyone with a modern phone is going to buy a disposable 00:17:29.720 --> 00:17:34.890 camera and pay money to have film developed; and there probably aren't too many people 00:17:34.890 --> 00:17:41.890 with 8-megapixle camera phones who also require digital cameras. Due to advancing technology 00:17:46.440 --> 00:17:52.590 these stores had suddenly become "specialist stores" their customers now having to mainly 00:17:52.590 --> 00:17:58.080 consist of serious photographers. 00:17:58.080 --> 00:18:04.760 Entertainment For music, video and games stores, there are 00:18:04.760 --> 00:18:10.720 five main threats here. One -- Supermarkets, supermarkets are selling 00:18:10.720 --> 00:18:15.190 a lot of the same products and most of the time cheaper. 00:18:15.190 --> 00:18:22.110 Two - On-line Stores like Amazon, they also offer good deals with the added comfort twenty 00:18:22.110 --> 00:18:29.110 four hour browsing and of course, item delivery. Three - Pawn shops like cash converters, they 00:18:31.429 --> 00:18:36.190 get away with selling entertainment at a second hand rate making them even cheaper than the 00:18:36.190 --> 00:18:42.820 supermarkets. Four -- On-line digital downloads and streaming, 00:18:42.820 --> 00:18:49.659 with apps like iTunes and Netflix conveniently accessible through smart TV's, gaming consoles, 00:18:49.659 --> 00:18:56.659 PC, and most phone and tablet devices. But let's not forget about five. Good old fashion 00:18:56.850 --> 00:19:03.590 piracy. With the advancements of fibre optic broadband, you can now download entire movies 00:19:03.590 --> 00:19:09.120 in a matter of minutes. Not that I'm suggesting you do that of course. That would be illegal. 00:19:09.120 --> 00:19:14.100 I'm just saying it's easier and faster than going to the shops, waiting on the post 00:19:14.100 --> 00:19:20.610 man or signing in the Netflix account on the PS3. As an aside, if any part of you is enraged 00:19:20.610 --> 00:19:25.860 at the thought of all these immoral people illegally sharing media. Why not aim some 00:19:25.860 --> 00:19:32.140 of that authentic aggression at the idea of a society which distributes digital entertainment 00:19:32.140 --> 00:19:38.860 in physical form. The wastefulness of this would be equivalent to having a unique physical 00:19:38.860 --> 00:19:45.860 address in order to access each and every website in existence. But perhaps you li the 00:19:46.059 --> 00:19:50.659 plastic cases... and what's wrong with the plastic cases? Well, the case itself is made 00:19:50.659 --> 00:19:57.149 from polypropylene, while the clear film sleeve is made from polyester. By bonding these different 00:19:57.149 --> 00:20:03.350 plastic materials together, it makes them almost impossible to properly recycle on large 00:20:03.350 --> 00:20:09.580 scale, so when the plastic rips, breaks or even just gets old and wasted.. They have 00:20:09.580 --> 00:20:16.279 to be either buried in landfills or incinerated which of course produces toxic chemicals. 00:20:16.279 --> 00:20:22.899 and this is the system we support by the way we choose to purchase entertainment, despite 00:20:22.899 --> 00:20:28.659 having had the possibility of digital alternatives for over a decade. 00:20:28.659 --> 00:20:35.399 Asking people to shop in these stores is asking us to live in an unnatural counter progressive 00:20:35.399 --> 00:20:41.130 way. So perhaps the failure of these stores is 00:20:41.130 --> 00:20:48.130 a good thing. But good or bad, a digital acquisition is upon us and the failures of these stores 00:20:49.500 --> 00:20:55.820 are simply a matter of time. And yes, even if they sell their brand status, they are 00:20:55.820 --> 00:20:59.510 failing. Nordic GAME won't be too far behind either. 00:20:59.510 --> 00:21:06.460 But what about book stores like Waterstones? Well the increase of tablets and e-book readers 00:21:06.460 --> 00:21:12.850 certainly poses a threat. However I can imagine the feel of a book, which people are oh so 00:21:12.850 --> 00:21:19.149 nostalgic about, will be used as a "justification" argument for the continued stifling of a successful 00:21:19.149 --> 00:21:25.639 digital transition. But, even without a digital alternative, Waterstone's in particular 00:21:25.639 --> 00:21:30.090 is facing the same threat of on-line distribution as well as competition from supermarkets. 00:21:30.090 --> 00:21:36.649 As are almost all product based stores - products to do with body care, cosmetics, clothing, 00:21:36.649 --> 00:21:42.789 mobile phones, electronic appliances and even musical equipment. However there is an argument 00:21:42.789 --> 00:21:49.409 to be made that physical stores are different, perhaps better than a website or a supermarket, 00:21:49.409 --> 00:21:54.980 in that they provide "knowledgeable staff". Perhaps you're not sure what product is 00:21:54.980 --> 00:22:01.220 best for you. In these shops, you can interact with friendly sales people who are qualified 00:22:01.220 --> 00:22:07.370 to offer advice and help you make the right decision. Well, while it is true that retail 00:22:07.370 --> 00:22:11.539 employees are trained to help customers and they are required to have a certain level 00:22:11.539 --> 00:22:16.889 of knowledge about the product. They also have something which no one really questions. 00:22:16.889 --> 00:22:23.889 Sales targets, either the staff or the store itself will have target requirements. If i 00:22:24.700 --> 00:22:28.710 wandered into a phone shop unsure of what to buy and make the mistake of telling the 00:22:28.710 --> 00:22:34.380 sales person that I'm not too familiar with the differences I leave myself open to a product 00:22:34.380 --> 00:22:40.309 sale bias, in this scenario the store has no problems selling the "best" products. 00:22:40.309 --> 00:22:45.559 So instead I might be presented with an inferior product which the store is struggling to offload, 00:22:45.559 --> 00:22:52.460 the sales person's job here becomes distorted, and I the customer will most likely be subjected 00:22:52.460 --> 00:22:56.299 to an eager sales pitch as opposed to honest insight. 00:22:56.299 --> 00:22:59.850 You are going to get whats ever in this box for ВЈ24.99 Oh No! NO! He's put three bottles 00:22:59.850 --> 00:23:06.850 of "sex in the City" for twenty six pounds ninety nine! At thirty six quid each! You 00:23:09.669 --> 00:23:13.929 need to buy... Boys please! Please! 00:23:13.929 --> 00:23:20.320 No! NO! No! NO! You need to buy now. 00:23:20.320 --> 00:23:27.320 In our current system, money is the driving force and as such the advice and intent to 00:23:27.750 --> 00:23:34.260 help a consumer make the right decision, is only a conditionality when required. But the 00:23:34.260 --> 00:23:40.590 main priority is always profit. I know this is designed for kids, we've... 00:23:40.590 --> 00:23:44.450 I've had some fun with this thing. This is amazing, whats so great about this 00:23:44.450 --> 00:23:49.889 is kids love tablets, they love playing with tablets, they love the games, the love the 00:23:49.889 --> 00:23:54.309 educational games but mom and dad want them to be safe, they want them they want to do, 00:23:54.309 --> 00:24:01.309 ya know everything on, but ya know... its...mmmm You ok? Ok... 00:24:04.210 --> 00:24:11.009 What it does is it gives us an opportunity for us to be able to offer a piece of electronic 00:24:11.009 --> 00:24:17.909 equipment that is simple for children to operate but also, mom and dad can operate it as well. 00:24:17.909 --> 00:24:23.909 At ВЈ149.94 the secret of it is that it has all the technology that mom and dad's tablet 00:24:23.909 --> 00:24:29.269 has, it's got the android operating system 4.0, it's got all. 00:24:29.269 --> 00:24:35.190 Now, had we instead used the internet as a guide, either through social media or public 00:24:35.190 --> 00:24:41.929 forums, we would obtain better and more accurate advice. The usefulness of these "sales people" 00:24:41.929 --> 00:24:47.899 which we have all grown accustomed to, pale in comparison to the advice found on-line... 00:24:47.899 --> 00:24:53.080 The rating systems found on public forums are in fact designed to weed out any bad or 00:24:53.080 --> 00:25:00.080 incorrect information and without it we are all vulnerable to the biases, lies and manipulation 00:25:00.700 --> 00:25:05.330 of self-righteous profit seekers. 00:25:05.330 --> 00:25:09.450 But perhaps there's another element to the physical shopping experience that I'm missing? 00:25:09.450 --> 00:25:15.090 What about the clothing shops? I have to admit even I thought they wouldn't be as affected 00:25:15.090 --> 00:25:21.559 by on-line alternatives for the simple fact that most people like to try before they buy. 00:25:21.559 --> 00:25:27.429 Who buys clothes without trying them on first? Well, I mean... I do but maybe that's because 00:25:27.429 --> 00:25:32.070 I'm a guy... When i buy a t-shirt i look for the ones with the big "L" and they 00:25:32.070 --> 00:25:37.350 never let me down... Maybe being male i don't have to account for boob size when evaluating 00:25:37.350 --> 00:25:43.230 comfort. But surly women don't prefer buying on-line without getting to try the clothes 00:25:43.230 --> 00:25:49.480 on first? Well, surprisingly when women's clothing store "Internacionale" launched their 00:25:49.480 --> 00:25:55.320 on-line store in 2012. They took in more profit in that one day from the website than all 00:25:55.320 --> 00:26:02.320 their retail outlets combined. That surprised me. Clothing doesn't seem to have any intrinsic 00:26:03.090 --> 00:26:09.840 immunity to the threat of on-line alternatives. 00:26:09.840 --> 00:26:14.269 Taking a look at retail outside of on-line threats, perhaps there is also something to 00:26:14.269 --> 00:26:20.120 be said about specialist shops in times of recession, shops which specialise in ties 00:26:20.120 --> 00:26:27.120 for instance or underwear, shoes, jeans, suits, exercise clothing and outdoor clothing. If 00:26:28.710 --> 00:26:35.279 we had a store dedicated to just socks. would that work? Maybe in these hard times it's 00:26:35.279 --> 00:26:40.870 not surprising why all-in-one stores like Primark seem to be staying afloat. You want 00:26:40.870 --> 00:26:47.870 a shirt? Primark. You want a dress? Primark. shoes, costume jewellery, candles, cushions, 00:26:49.659 --> 00:26:55.210 towels....even a mankini!? And the comfort of finding everything under one roof also 00:26:55.210 --> 00:27:00.610 stretches out to supermarkets. And speaking of supermarkets, what happened when they began 00:27:00.610 --> 00:27:07.600 to implement self-service tills? In this Tesco's the nine items or less section has been completely 00:27:07.600 --> 00:27:13.860 replaced with self-scanning. So now, only one job is required to assist those unfamiliar 00:27:13.860 --> 00:27:20.269 with the process or those trying to purchase items which require age verification. When 00:27:20.269 --> 00:27:25.769 this technology extends to the larger conveyor belt sections as it has been in pockets. or 00:27:25.769 --> 00:27:31.230 more importantly, when high street stores like Primark adopt self-serving systems, Retail 00:27:31.230 --> 00:27:36.590 will undergo yet another transitionary phase resulting in thousands of redundancies and 00:27:36.590 --> 00:27:42.049 these job losses will not be temporary, for once this process is in place there is no 00:27:42.049 --> 00:27:47.820 reasonable argument to go back to having lines of paid humans who are in fact now more expensive 00:27:47.820 --> 00:27:54.820 in the long run... and this new self-service revolution doesn't end there... 00:28:00.419 --> 00:28:03.320 Vending 00:28:03.320 --> 00:28:08.440 General convenience stores are now entirely replaceable with vending machine kiosks. 00:28:08.440 --> 00:28:14.389 A company called "Shop 24" has over 190 locations in Europe and they have already 00:28:14.389 --> 00:28:21.389 begun UK implementation, and as the name suggests, these vending stores are open all hours, giving 00:28:21.700 --> 00:28:27.980 them an even greater advantage over conventional human required methods. Vending machine stores 00:28:27.980 --> 00:28:33.200 will also start to crop up in the form of sweet shops and "on-the-go" cuisine, offering 00:28:33.200 --> 00:28:40.200 hot drinks, soft drinks, desserts, chips, noodles, hot dogs and even pizza. Complete 00:28:41.580 --> 00:28:47.799 vending machine integration of cafГ©s and lunch bars are on the horizon, as well as 00:28:47.799 --> 00:28:54.100 local pubs consisting of alcohol, cigarette and "pub food" vending. The only human 00:28:54.100 --> 00:29:01.100 required job here would be a moderator/bouncer hybrid, ensuring no one under the legal drinking 00:29:01.440 --> 00:29:08.440 age gains access. But even the need for human age verification is threatened by technology. 00:29:08.879 --> 00:29:14.590 Today we have the "iSample", a vending machine developed by Intel & Krafts with built 00:29:14.590 --> 00:29:21.269 in optical sensors it is capable of reading the face and determining gender and age, all 00:29:21.269 --> 00:29:22.809 within a fraction of a second. 00:29:22.809 --> 00:29:26.620 Pawn Shops Earlier I mentioned pawn shops such as Cash 00:29:26.620 --> 00:29:30.990 Converters and it's interesting to know how these shops actually tend to profit in 00:29:30.990 --> 00:29:36.509 times of economic recession, for the more we struggle to get by, the more likely we 00:29:36.509 --> 00:29:42.350 are to entertain leasing our goods at interest, despite the risk of losing them if we fail 00:29:42.350 --> 00:29:48.090 to buy them back within a certain time constraint. However there are items which we would pawn 00:29:48.090 --> 00:29:54.070 with no intention of buying back and I guess for that area of sales more and more people 00:29:54.070 --> 00:29:55.720 are now turning to eBay. 00:29:55.720 --> 00:30:02.720 But how about charity shops? I believe they have longevity as they provide a unique service. 00:30:03.059 --> 00:30:07.669 If you have old clothes or trinkets which you no longer need, but don't feel they 00:30:07.669 --> 00:30:12.740 are valuable enough for the likes of eBay, charity shop donations are a morally viable 00:30:12.740 --> 00:30:18.039 way of discarding items no longer needed. And this product "recycling" process is 00:30:18.039 --> 00:30:23.889 far less wasteful than taking your old things to the skip. However, we are focusing on the 00:30:23.889 --> 00:30:28.919 relevance of a job loss and its effects on the economy. Since most charity shops are 00:30:28.919 --> 00:30:34.720 run by volunteers and their profits are in some part donated to charity, I fail to see 00:30:34.720 --> 00:30:37.379 their economic relevance here. 00:30:37.379 --> 00:30:43.909 Throughout the high street the only shops which seem to have immunity are the ones which 00:30:43.909 --> 00:30:50.909 require actual human performed services, such as tattooing or hair dressing. But just for 00:30:51.820 --> 00:30:57.179 fun, let's see if tattoo artists really are impervious to automation. In 2012, a guy 00:30:57.179 --> 00:31:03.870 named Chris Eckert developed the Auto Ink tattoo machine. Now, for demonstration purposes 00:31:03.870 --> 00:31:10.450 it uses a ball point pen instead of a needle, however the implication of this machines potential 00:31:10.450 --> 00:31:15.759 is obvious. If it were ever to take off pre-programmed designs could eliminate the need for any human 00:31:15.759 --> 00:31:19.519 involvement in the tattooing process. 00:31:19.519 --> 00:31:26.120 Earlier I highlighted the fact that a lot of high street stores now occupy warehouses 00:31:26.120 --> 00:31:31.070 and sell their products on-line. This may lead some of you to assume that the economy 00:31:31.070 --> 00:31:37.470 will at least be helped in some part with all these new warehouse jobs. Well it seems 00:31:37.470 --> 00:31:44.470 even these jobs are under attack, for example, Amazon is the world's largest online retailer 00:31:44.539 --> 00:31:51.360 and currently has twelve fulfilment centres across the UK. But in May of 2012 Amazon purchased 00:31:51.360 --> 00:31:56.379 the American "Kiva Systems" for seven hundred and seventy five million dollars. 00:31:56.379 --> 00:32:03.059 What is Kiva? Kiva is an autonomous robot which uses optical sensors to navigate through 00:32:03.059 --> 00:32:08.940 a warehouse. It reads inventory items as bits of digital information which is then organised 00:32:08.940 --> 00:32:13.950 through complex algorithms in much the same way that Google organizes web pages. They 00:32:13.950 --> 00:32:20.950 can pick, pack, and ship anything sold online faster and for a lot less money than a human. 00:32:21.559 --> 00:32:26.889 These efficiencies allow Kiva to gather goods within minutes of an order, allowing the remaining 00:32:26.889 --> 00:32:33.450 human workers to ship up to four times more packages in an hour. Similarly, the Spanish 00:32:33.450 --> 00:32:38.779 "Bonnysa" Group have incorporated two automised facilities. The first stores products 00:32:38.779 --> 00:32:43.749 directly as they are unloaded from delivery vehicles, guaranteeing complete control and 00:32:43.749 --> 00:32:49.419 traceability of goods, and in the second, once products have been calibrated and classified, 00:32:49.419 --> 00:32:54.200 they are placed on double depth shelving which allows for twice the storage capacity without 00:32:54.200 --> 00:32:58.799 having to increase the amount of stacker cranes used. Since Bonnysa switched to using the 00:32:58.799 --> 00:33:04.590 high-speed automised facilities they have eliminated the need for human operator intervention 00:33:04.590 --> 00:33:09.590 and have increased their product control and warehouse security to the extent that output 00:33:09.590 --> 00:33:16.590 is now five times the amount of a conventional warehouse. 00:33:25.009 --> 00:33:32.009 Manufacturing According to the Organisation for Economic 00:33:39.309 --> 00:33:45.490 Co-operation and Development the manufacturing sector's share of both employment and GDP 00:33:45.490 --> 00:33:50.210 has gradually declined since the sixty's, although manufacturing output in terms of 00:33:50.210 --> 00:33:56.850 both production and value has steadily increased since 1945. The reason of course is technology, 00:33:56.850 --> 00:34:02.929 and looking at the production of an automobile it's easy to see why we prefer using machines. 00:34:02.929 --> 00:34:08.629 If these trends continue it is not far-fetched to think most if not all factory workers will 00:34:08.629 --> 00:34:14.530 eventually be replaced by machines. Now, there's three main reasons as to why factory automation 00:34:14.530 --> 00:34:17.340 has yet to be fully integrated across the board. 00:34:17.340 --> 00:34:23.969 One: Vulnerability: An automated system usually has to be pre-programed for each specific 00:34:23.969 --> 00:34:28.899 task which makes them susceptible to committing errors outside of their immediate scope of 00:34:28.899 --> 00:34:35.010 knowledge. This makes them typically unable to apply simple rules of logic to general 00:34:35.010 --> 00:34:41.309 propositions. However, machines today have far more mobility and dexterity than ever 00:34:41.309 --> 00:34:48.040 imagined and instead of having to be preprogramed for each motion, machines are gradually gaining 00:34:48.040 --> 00:34:55.040 autonomy, being able to detect objects and predict movement. The second reason is due 00:34:55.139 --> 00:35:01.180 to unpredictable, excessive developmental costs. The research and development cost of 00:35:01.180 --> 00:35:06.720 automating a specific task, can often exceed the cost saved by the automation itself. The 00:35:06.720 --> 00:35:13.030 third reason also has to do with affordability, high initial costs. Automating a new product 00:35:13.030 --> 00:35:17.880 requires an initial investment which is usually quite expensive when compared with the unit 00:35:17.880 --> 00:35:22.410 cost of the product, even though the cost of automation may be spread among many products 00:35:22.410 --> 00:35:28.430 over time. The decision to automate is therefore reserved for products which have proven to 00:35:28.430 --> 00:35:33.790 be profitable and unlikely to change, as any alterations could require the re-programing 00:35:33.790 --> 00:35:38.760 of machines. These three problems have been an issue since 00:35:38.760 --> 00:35:45.010 factory automation began, but as time goes on, the machines improve and the cost of automating 00:35:45.010 --> 00:35:49.579 declines. For simple assembly line tasks, it's certainly been cheaper to have human 00:35:49.579 --> 00:35:55.980 workers. However, in mid-2012, an American company called "Rethink Robotics" launched 00:35:55.980 --> 00:36:02.140 the Baxter robot. Baxter is a revolution in assembly line manufacturing as it can be programed 00:36:02.140 --> 00:36:08.960 to perform a multitude of tasks and the best part is you don't even have to be a programmer. 00:36:08.960 --> 00:36:13.000 Simply grab his arms, guide him through the motions of the required task and then leave 00:36:13.000 --> 00:36:18.700 him to get on with it. If another task is required later on, simply grab his arms again 00:36:18.700 --> 00:36:23.859 and re-program the motions. Baxter is currently on the market for around fourteen thousand 00:36:23.859 --> 00:36:29.010 pounds which is an extremely affordable initial investment cost and taking into account the 00:36:29.010 --> 00:36:34.619 average life span it works for less than three pounds an hour, twenty four hours a day, seven 00:36:34.619 --> 00:36:41.329 days a week and doesn't require tea breaks. This robot is set to revolutionise the entire 00:36:41.329 --> 00:36:44.200 manufacturing industry. 00:36:44.200 --> 00:36:49.309 Application Aside from factory jobs being replaced by 00:36:49.309 --> 00:36:54.720 machines, there are many products today which are quickly becoming altogether irrelevant. 00:36:54.720 --> 00:36:59.680 For those of us with smart phones and tablets, the following examples may appear too obvious 00:36:59.680 --> 00:37:05.700 to require a detailed analysis. But for those of you who have yet to acknowledge this trend, 00:37:05.700 --> 00:37:11.450 let's take a look at the implied future of the smart phone "App". Currently Apps 00:37:11.450 --> 00:37:16.300 are in the process of killing a vast range of physical products. Most obviously, paper 00:37:16.300 --> 00:37:23.280 products; novels, comic books, cook books, puzzle books, phone books & yellow pages, 00:37:23.280 --> 00:37:28.260 dictionaries, encyclopaedias, magazines, newspapers, shopping catalogues, road maps, photo albums, 00:37:28.260 --> 00:37:34.730 calendars, diaries and of course, many products associated with stationary. Then there are 00:37:34.730 --> 00:37:40.520 electrical products such as calculators, radios, alarm clocks, camcorders, voice recorders, 00:37:40.520 --> 00:37:46.490 remote controls, karaoke machines, guitar tuners, amplifiers and effects peddles, GPS 00:37:46.490 --> 00:37:51.410 navigation, video game cartridges and even board games are having their physical necessity 00:37:51.410 --> 00:37:53.339 challenged by software. 00:37:53.339 --> 00:38:00.339 Personal Computer Now what about desktop computers? Most people 00:38:01.079 --> 00:38:06.770 only really use their PC's for surfing the web, socialising, listening to music and watching 00:38:06.770 --> 00:38:13.050 videos. All of which can now be done on those same smart phones and tablets. PC's, while 00:38:13.050 --> 00:38:18.599 not disappearing entirely, will decline in numbers because of this, effecting many jobs 00:38:18.599 --> 00:38:23.280 associated with producing not only the computers themselves, but think of all those peripheral 00:38:23.280 --> 00:38:29.920 devices associated with them, the keyboard, mouse and webcam. As well as hardware components 00:38:29.920 --> 00:38:36.920 such as ram chips and graphics cards. Now, this might seem overly pessimistic. However 00:38:38.280 --> 00:38:43.230 a survey by the International Data Corporation showed tablets to account for a third of all 00:38:43.230 --> 00:38:48.670 computing sales in 2012 and even Microsoft are acknowledging the inevitable outcome, 00:38:48.670 --> 00:38:53.869 and with the advent of 4G wireless networking which allows for high speed internet on our 00:38:53.869 --> 00:38:59.750 mobile devices, we can now use applications like Skype and Face time to make phone calls 00:38:59.750 --> 00:39:05.900 to and from anywhere in the world for free, the implication being the demise of traditional 00:39:05.900 --> 00:39:12.190 land line phones and mobile tariffs. British Telecom has been preparing for this and have 00:39:12.190 --> 00:39:18.670 already launched their cloud network. Now, digital alternatives may not yet be adopted 00:39:18.670 --> 00:39:24.059 by the majority, perhaps mostly because of nostalgia rather than efficiency. But the 00:39:24.059 --> 00:39:29.670 children of the future are not going to care about the toys of the past. 00:39:29.670 --> 00:39:36.670 Media Products & Appliances VHS, CD and DVD players as well as free-view, 00:39:40.400 --> 00:39:46.710 sky and virgin media boxes are all facing redundancy by the advancements of the smart 00:39:46.710 --> 00:39:53.710 TV. Why? Because smart TV's stream content from the internet, making it possible for 00:39:54.200 --> 00:40:01.200 Sky and virgin media to exist entirely in app form. So what of all those lavish book, 00:40:03.020 --> 00:40:09.640 CD and DVD collections which most of us equate to our status and identity? These erroneous 00:40:09.640 --> 00:40:14.940 collections are no longer optimal as we now have digital media libraries, with the likes 00:40:14.940 --> 00:40:21.420 of iTunes and iBooks. And when digital libraries are rehomed to our TV's as well as our phones 00:40:21.420 --> 00:40:27.420 and tablets. Just as VHS collections were phased out by the improved format of the DVD, 00:40:27.420 --> 00:40:34.420 our current wasteful, vanity orientated physical media collections will be phased out and replaced 00:40:35.660 --> 00:40:42.660 with non-physical digital formats, alongside their required physical media players. In 00:40:42.869 --> 00:40:49.869 fact, in January of 2013, tech giant "Philips" gave in and sold their home entertainment 00:40:49.970 --> 00:40:55.930 appliances division and now only producing coffee machines, juicer's, toasters and 00:40:55.930 --> 00:40:57.309 electric razors. 00:40:57.309 --> 00:41:02.130 The rise of high speed fibre optic broadband will also extend the extinction of irrelevant 00:41:02.130 --> 00:41:08.420 peripherals to Blu-ray players and video game consoles. That's right, even video games 00:41:08.420 --> 00:41:14.440 will be played via internet streaming. Sound far-fetched? Well Sony entertainment doesn't 00:41:14.440 --> 00:41:20.859 think so. In July of 2012 they spent $380 million purchasing the cloud-based video game 00:41:20.859 --> 00:41:27.609 streaming network "Gaika". Even Xbox co-founder Nat Brown has expressed his concerns over 00:41:27.609 --> 00:41:33.109 the implications of Apple entering the games industry, acknowledging the potential of their 00:41:33.109 --> 00:41:39.540 already established infrastructure to easily replace the Xbox, Playstation and Nintendo 00:41:39.540 --> 00:41:41.900 consoles. 00:41:41.900 --> 00:41:48.250 3D-Printing Now, obviously there are many physical products 00:41:48.250 --> 00:41:53.319 on the market which aren't threatened by digital downloading. 00:41:53.319 --> 00:41:58.890 However in October of 2012, the city of London was host to the world's first-ever consumer 00:41:58.890 --> 00:42:05.790 3D print show, displaying how 3D printing can allow consumers to download and print 00:42:05.790 --> 00:42:12.280 a vast range of products as and when they need them. This is not merely a glimpse into 00:42:12.280 --> 00:42:18.920 a hypothetical future; 3D printers can already build products from a range of materials including 00:42:18.920 --> 00:42:25.920 plastic, chocolate, glass, concrete and even metal. So what products could be printed? 00:42:27.130 --> 00:42:32.980 Well, just about any basic household items from plates, bowls, mugs, bottles, cutlery, 00:42:32.980 --> 00:42:39.980 tupperware, lamp shades, photo frames, furniture, musical instruments, figurines, even a wrench 00:42:42.270 --> 00:42:48.299 printed with fully moving parts. So you may be wondering just how far in the future 3D 00:42:48.299 --> 00:42:53.099 printing is, and how expensive these things are going to be? Well let's look at the 00:42:53.099 --> 00:42:59.770 Rep-Rap project. Rep-Rap is a self-replicating 3D printer. Meaning it can print most of its 00:42:59.770 --> 00:43:04.500 own parts, so if you have one, you can make another one. And the great thing about rep-rap 00:43:04.500 --> 00:43:10.790 is that it is open source, meaning its design is not owned or constrained by copy write. 00:43:10.790 --> 00:43:17.059 It's completely free for anyone to use and improve. Today, 3D printers can be purchased 00:43:17.059 --> 00:43:24.059 from open source groups like reprap and fab@home, or commercially through pp3dp.com & cubify. 00:43:26.240 --> 00:43:31.599 Perhaps you don't have the room for a home 3D printer? Well there is the option of ordering 00:43:31.599 --> 00:43:38.599 3D printed products online through services such as shapeways, sculpteo and i.materialise. 00:43:38.900 --> 00:43:43.170 Companies can also employ the mass producing of 3D printed products through organizations 00:43:43.170 --> 00:43:46.740 such as Thingiverse and kraftwurx. 00:43:46.740 --> 00:43:52.460 The world of 3D printing is huge and it's here today. And just like every other technological 00:43:52.460 --> 00:43:58.049 advancement - as time goes on these things will become more and more affordable. And 00:43:58.049 --> 00:44:03.079 every company which currently produces all those house hold items will simply become 00:44:03.079 --> 00:44:10.079 financially unsustainable. Pay It Forward 00:44:10.420 --> 00:44:17.420 A group called PIF3D aim to exploit the replicating ability of RepRap by taking the machine to 00:44:17.640 --> 00:44:22.240 universities and hosting twenty-four hour 3D printing parties, where they give people 00:44:22.240 --> 00:44:27.140 the skills to build one of these things. The objective being that those people can "Pay 00:44:27.140 --> 00:44:32.740 it forward". Once they have built two or three RepRap printers, they repeat the process 00:44:32.740 --> 00:44:38.440 of taking it to schools and showing others how to make their own, and the process repeats. 00:44:38.440 --> 00:44:44.290 The idea of paying it forward could easily spread like wildfire. Meaning just about everyone 00:44:44.290 --> 00:44:51.020 in the world could own a 3D printer for next to nothing. Now, as 3D-Printers become more 00:44:51.020 --> 00:44:55.930 mainstream, there will most likely be attempts to patent certain design elements and sell 00:44:55.930 --> 00:45:02.930 each downloadable product commercially. However once a product is on a CAD file, there's 00:45:03.290 --> 00:45:10.290 no real reason 3D designs would be immune to internet piracy. 00:45:10.670 --> 00:45:13.210 Transport 00:45:13.210 --> 00:45:20.210 Around 2.5% of the UK population have jobs which require a driving licence. 00:45:42.540 --> 00:45:48.319 The first autonomous driverless vehicle was developed by, Sebastian Thrun director of 00:45:48.319 --> 00:45:48.569 the Stanford Artificial Intelligence Laboratory and co-inventor of Google Street View. In 00:45:48.400 --> 00:45:55.400 2005 the Google car won the DARPA Grand Challenge and since then, Google have been developing 00:46:06.609 --> 00:46:13.609 a commercial system. However progress has been held back due to 00:46:20.609 --> 00:46:22.369 legal liabilities, for example if there was an accident, who would be at fault? The car 00:46:22.369 --> 00:46:27.750 owner? the manufacturer? What if the accident was a result of a lost signal? Would the internet 00:46:27.750 --> 00:46:32.599 providers be accountable? Filtering through legislation is a lengthy process, but they've 00:46:32.599 --> 00:46:36.250 come a long way. In August 2012, the Google team announced 00:46:36.250 --> 00:46:41.290 that they have completed over 300,000 miles of autonomous-driving, all without a single 00:46:41.290 --> 00:46:43.940 accident. Nevada, Florida and California all passed laws allowing driverless cars. 00:46:43.940 --> 00:46:44.190 Although it's hard to invasion a timeline, the remaining united states and the UK will 00:46:44.020 --> 00:46:51.020 eventually pass similar legislations, and driverless cars will explode on to the market. 00:46:54.079 --> 00:47:01.079 As well as the American based Google car which most of us are probably aware of, there is 00:47:04.270 --> 00:47:08.369 also a German creation from "autonomous labs" at the Free University of Berlin. 00:47:08.369 --> 00:47:10.290 The project has already been given approval to run a driverless taxi services throughout 00:47:10.290 --> 00:47:11.040 Berlin and Brandenburg. For those of you who feel hesitant about assigning 00:47:11.040 --> 00:47:18.040 the control of your vehicle to a machine, know that the kiva systems mentioned earlier 00:47:20.579 --> 00:47:27.579 have essentially the same autonomy, and they too have yet to witness a single accident. 00:47:29.010 --> 00:47:36.010 Compare that with the UK's current yearly rates of 3,000 motor vehicle incidents resulting 00:47:36.170 --> 00:47:43.170 in fatalities, 35,000 resulting serious accidents and a total 276,000 severities. Clearly it 00:47:44.880 --> 00:47:51.880 would be societally irresponsible to maintain human drivers while the safer option is available. 00:47:55.589 --> 00:48:02.589 And in making a safer society all jobs associated with public transport and delivery of goods, 00:48:11.630 --> 00:48:18.630 could be achieved without human involvement. 00:48:25.069 --> 00:48:29.549 Agriculture Dairy 00:48:29.549 --> 00:48:36.549 GEA farm technologies' provides technological solutions to livestock farming, including 00:48:39.619 --> 00:48:45.559 the development of a fully automatic milking system for dairy farms. Dairy cows are guided 00:48:45.559 --> 00:48:52.160 into these Mi1 milking units, the cows electronic tag is identified and their pre-allocated 00:48:52.160 --> 00:48:59.160 amount of food is dispensed. A 3D camera scans and identifies the udders, then attaches to 00:49:00.329 --> 00:49:07.180 the t-cups. It washes dries and pre-milks the cows. This amazing technology reduces 00:49:07.180 --> 00:49:13.849 labour, increases milk production, lowers stress of both the cows and farmers, and electric 00:49:13.849 --> 00:49:20.849 tagging allows for the ability to manage cows individually. So when is this technology being 00:49:22.170 --> 00:49:29.170 implemented? Well looking at the UK alone, it's actually already been in use since 00:49:32.109 --> 00:49:33.289 2011. 00:49:33.289 --> 00:49:40.289 Precision Farming EGNOS Precision Farming is a system which 00:49:41.809 --> 00:49:47.770 uses GPS guidance technology for crop cultivation. The auto track technology sends signals to 00:49:47.770 --> 00:49:54.299 the tractors steering system via a GPS receiver. The resulting navigation is so precise that 00:49:54.299 --> 00:50:00.589 Farmers can actually treat soil and crops in a site specific manner and ensure optimum 00:50:00.589 --> 00:50:06.030 chemical doses are applied to the right places. The system has been shown to cut costs on 00:50:06.030 --> 00:50:12.900 fertilisation and fuel, reducing the environmental impact, and because the tractors steer themselves 00:50:12.900 --> 00:50:18.289 it also reduces operator fatigue. As you've probably already guessed, it is only a matter 00:50:18.289 --> 00:50:24.260 of time before these tractors are also equipped with autonomous driving technology, spelling 00:50:24.260 --> 00:50:30.010 the end of this particular human required task and allowing for the full automation 00:50:30.010 --> 00:50:31.609 of crop cultivation. 00:50:31.609 --> 00:50:38.609 Vertical farming But why limit crop cultivation to fields? 00:50:40.460 --> 00:50:45.440 In 1999 a professor of environmental health sciences at Columbia University in New York, 00:50:45.440 --> 00:50:50.130 Dickson Despommier challenged his students to feed the entire population of Manhattan 00:50:50.130 --> 00:50:57.130 using 13 acres of usable rooftop gardens. The class calculated that only 2% of all the 00:50:57.319 --> 00:51:02.930 people could be fed using this method. Unsatisfied with the results, Despommier made an off-the-cuff 00:51:02.930 --> 00:51:09.930 suggestion of growing plants indoors and vertically. The idea sparked interests and by 2001 the 00:51:10.789 --> 00:51:17.789 first outline of a vertical farm was introduced. Today scientists, architects, and investors worldwide are working together to 00:51:24.049 --> 00:51:31.049 make the concept of vertical farming a reality. Unlike, traditional agriculture, a controlled 00:51:44.880 --> 00:51:50.109 indoor environment is not susceptible to crop loss from severe weather conditions nor is 00:51:50.109 --> 00:51:54.420 it limited by seasonal crop production. 00:51:54.420 --> 00:51:59.530 Using the method of hydroponics which doesn't require soil, water is preserved in a closed 00:51:59.530 --> 00:52:06.530 loop system, eliminating the concern of agricultural runoff, and since it is continually recycled, 00:52:07.760 --> 00:52:13.140 the total water usage is 70% less than current requirements. Without soil this system is 00:52:13.140 --> 00:52:18.079 immune to pesticides, meaning we could also do away with having to spray agrochemicals 00:52:18.079 --> 00:52:22.000 on our food. 00:52:22.000 --> 00:52:28.010 For those of you sceptical about the limitations of hydroponic farming, here is a list of already 00:52:28.010 --> 00:52:35.010 commercially available products from hydroponically produced plants. 00:52:39.960 --> 00:52:46.960 Health Care Cardiology 00:53:05.339 --> 00:53:10.630 Up next it sounds like science fiction but Dr Nancy Snyderman reports on how your smart 00:53:10.630 --> 00:53:17.630 phone may change medicine including warning you of a heart attack. By modifying an iPhone 00:53:21.640 --> 00:53:28.640 with this ECG attachment and using the AliveECG app, your heart rate, temperature, oxygen 00:53:29.190 --> 00:53:34.940 and fluid levels can all be recorded with the results directly upload able to your Cardiologist. 00:53:34.940 --> 00:53:40.420 Blood, saliva, urine and even sweat can all be tested with this device. Combined with 00:53:40.420 --> 00:53:47.089 a wireless ultrasound, full physical check-ups can be carried out remotely from anywhere 00:53:47.089 --> 00:53:50.809 in the world. There's twenty million, over twenty million 00:53:50.809 --> 00:53:55.380 echocardiograms done a year. That's twenty million times eight hundred dollars that's 00:53:55.380 --> 00:54:00.690 a lot of money. Probably seventy to eighty percent we can get rid of, just by having 00:54:00.690 --> 00:54:04.359 this part of the physical exam. 00:54:04.359 --> 00:54:08.349 Medicine As for prescription medicine, perhaps the 00:54:08.349 --> 00:54:14.539 biggest threat is not with technology but rather in the curing of illnesses. Fifteen 00:54:14.539 --> 00:54:19.200 year veteran of the pharmaceutical industry Gwen Olsen, stated "the pharmaceutical industry 00:54:19.200 --> 00:54:24.250 is in the business of disease maintenance and symptoms management, The are not in the 00:54:24.250 --> 00:54:30.089 business of curing cancer, Alzheimer's or heart disease, because if they were, they 00:54:30.089 --> 00:54:34.539 would be in the business of putting themselves out of business." 00:54:34.539 --> 00:54:38.670 For those of you who doubt the medical establishment would knowingly put profitability ahead of 00:54:38.670 --> 00:54:44.559 actually helping people, you need look for no further evidence than a 2002 UK clinical 00:54:44.559 --> 00:54:50.880 trial which found most anti-depressants to be as effective as sugar pills, giving the 00:54:50.880 --> 00:54:55.450 effects of a working drug through nothing more than a placebo. 00:54:55.450 --> 00:55:01.670 It's not hard to see why the medical industry would chose to promote the constant reselling 00:55:01.670 --> 00:55:07.380 of pharmaceuticals. If for example a cure for cancer was discovered and adopted by the 00:55:07.380 --> 00:55:13.130 mainstream, it would cause considerable losses in profits generated through radiotherapy, 00:55:13.130 --> 00:55:19.770 chemotherapy, hormone therapy, gene therapy and Immunotherapy. Not to mention the surgical 00:55:19.770 --> 00:55:25.349 costs of removing tumours. So, what does it mean for their industry when a fifteen year 00:55:25.349 --> 00:55:30.000 old boy from Maryland, discovers a new way of detecting cancer? Which studies have shown 00:55:30.000 --> 00:55:37.000 to be potentially 99% accurate, 168 times faster and 26,000 times cheaper than our current 00:55:38.640 --> 00:55:45.279 methods? Make no mistake, this amazing achievement, will be seen by the cancer profiteers as a 00:55:45.279 --> 00:55:51.720 blow to the industry. But regardless of their somewhat corrupt profit driven mentality, 00:55:51.720 --> 00:55:58.720 technology moves on and even when pharmaceuticals are the only option. Technology is yet again 00:55:58.839 --> 00:56:05.839 providing solutions. Organic Chemists make molecules very complicated 00:56:09.190 --> 00:56:13.579 molecules by chopping up a big molecule into smaller molecules and doing reverse engineering. 00:56:13.579 --> 00:56:20.140 As a chemist one of the things I wanted to ask my research group a couple of years ago 00:56:20.140 --> 00:56:26.319 is, could we make a really cool universal chemistry set? In essence could we "App" 00:56:26.319 --> 00:56:31.099 chemistry? Well to start to do this we took a 3D printer 00:56:31.099 --> 00:56:37.710 and we started to print our beakers and our test tubes on one side and then print the 00:56:37.710 --> 00:56:41.720 molecule at the same time on the other side and combine them together in what we call 00:56:41.720 --> 00:56:46.819 "Reaction ware" and so by printing the vessel and doing the chemistry at the same 00:56:46.819 --> 00:56:52.950 time we may start to access this universal toolkit of chemistry. Now what could this 00:56:52.950 --> 00:56:59.710 mean? Well if we can bed biological and chemical networks like a search engine, so if you have 00:56:59.710 --> 00:57:05.000 a cell that's ill that you need to cure or bacteria you want to kill, if you have 00:57:05.000 --> 00:57:10.160 this embedded in your device at the same time and you do the chemistry, you make be able 00:57:10.160 --> 00:57:16.720 to make drugs in a new way. So how are we doing this in the lab? Well 00:57:16.720 --> 00:57:21.119 it requires software, it requires hardware, and it requires chemical inks, and so the 00:57:21.119 --> 00:57:26.849 really cool bit is the idea to have a universal set of inks which we put out with the printer 00:57:26.849 --> 00:57:32.849 and you download the blue print, the organic chemistry for that molecule and you make it 00:57:32.849 --> 00:57:39.849 in the device. So you can make your molecule in the printer using this software. So what 00:57:40.960 --> 00:57:46.430 could this mean? You don't have to go to the chemist anymore. We can print drugs at 00:57:46.430 --> 00:57:52.119 point of need. We can download new diagnostics, say a new superbug has emerged; you put it 00:57:52.119 --> 00:57:57.690 in your search engine and you create the drug to treat the threat. So this allows you on 00:57:57.690 --> 00:58:03.059 the fly molecular assembly but perhaps for me the cool bit going in to the future is 00:58:03.059 --> 00:58:08.589 this idea of taking your own stem cells with your genes and your environment and you print 00:58:08.589 --> 00:58:15.420 your own personal medicine. And if that doesn't seem fanciful enough where do u think we're 00:58:15.420 --> 00:58:22.420 goanna go? Ur goanna have your own personal matter fabricator. 00:58:22.480 --> 00:58:28.520 As well as using bio-printing for binding molecules into medicine, bio-printing is also 00:58:28.520 --> 00:58:35.520 being used to construct organs. Today we can print an entire lung. 00:58:38.329 --> 00:58:45.329 Hospitals Now looking at hospital care, I'm sure most 00:58:48.770 --> 00:58:53.799 of you are now aware of these "tele presence" robots which allows intensive care specialists 00:58:53.799 --> 00:58:59.250 to remotely communicate with patients across multiple hospitals and as the robots have 00:58:59.250 --> 00:59:04.940 the ability to transmit information regarding the heart and breathing, examinations can 00:59:04.940 --> 00:59:11.010 occur much faster, while actually reducing the work load of hospital staff since it eliminates 00:59:11.010 --> 00:59:17.539 the need for patients to be transferred to intensive care units in some cases. The hospital's 00:59:17.539 --> 00:59:23.210 workload is also being reduced by "Aethon" TUG System in which an Autonomous robotic 00:59:23.210 --> 00:59:29.329 courier can make their rounds, carrying prescriptions, medical waste, food trays and up to two hundred 00:59:29.329 --> 00:59:36.329 pounds of laundry. 00:59:36.760 --> 00:59:43.760 Home Care As for home care, meet Asimo, Asimo is a humanoid 00:59:46.819 --> 00:59:53.819 robot created by Honda, with the aspiration of helping people who lack full mobility. 00:59:54.420 --> 01:00:01.420 Since he was first introduced in 2000, he has gradually improved in mobility and communication. 01:00:15.260 --> 01:00:22.260 (Thank you) Eventually Asimo will be capable of performing 01:00:49.440 --> 01:00:53.369 most takes typically required of home-care staff. 01:00:53.369 --> 01:00:59.119 Now, there are many people who irrationally fear technology, with their frame of reference 01:00:59.119 --> 01:01:05.119 limited to what they see in movies. But in reality technology is the provider of many 01:01:05.119 --> 01:01:09.400 solutions across the full spectrum of health and illnesses. 01:01:09.400 --> 01:01:16.359 When she was born her legs were up by her ears and her shoulders were internally rotated 01:01:16.359 --> 01:01:23.230 and she had ulnar deviation on her hands and rocker bottom feet. The geneticist came upstairs 01:01:23.230 --> 01:01:27.230 and told us that she had arthrogryposis multiplex congenital. They brought her legs down and 01:01:27.230 --> 01:01:34.230 they casted her and slowly and surly she started to develop. Our first year with Emma we found 01:01:41.270 --> 01:01:45.430 out that there was goanna be a conference and it was in Philadelphia. 01:01:45.430 --> 01:01:50.779 It was an arthrogryposis family meeting in Philadelphia where I described the WREX. 01:01:50.779 --> 01:01:57.210 We watched a presentation on the WREX. And that's how it all started. We ended 01:01:57.210 --> 01:02:03.380 up in Terick and Whitney's workshop. The WREX was attached to a stand and she was 01:02:03.380 --> 01:02:09.549 able to put her arms into the WREX and for the first time be able to lift her hand up 01:02:09.549 --> 01:02:13.420 towards her mouth. She just started throwing her hands around 01:02:13.420 --> 01:02:16.210 and playing. We were bringing candy up for her to eat and 01:02:16.210 --> 01:02:20.990 we were bringing toys up there and it was so fun for us to go up there and see her play 01:02:20.990 --> 01:02:27.990 The existing WREX is all metal parts and it's kinda big and Emma was too small for that 01:02:28.980 --> 01:02:34.980 so we required something light and small and would attach to her body and go with her. 01:02:34.980 --> 01:02:38.220 So that's where we had this "Stratasys 3D printing machine" and we thought well 01:02:38.220 --> 01:02:44.670 we could print it out for her. And he did it and the weight difference is 01:02:44.670 --> 01:02:49.960 significant and for a child who only weight twenty five pounds it makes a big difference. 01:02:49.960 --> 01:02:55.630 Whitney and Terick put their minds together and came up with a jacket and they would put 01:02:55.630 --> 01:03:00.170 the WREX on that and were on our second jacket, she outgrew the first one and now we're 01:03:00.170 --> 01:03:06.579 on our second one and its still evolving it's still growing into this incredible prosthetic 01:03:06.579 --> 01:03:13.579 which helps her to use her arms. Without the 3D printer we would not be in 01:03:13.950 --> 01:03:18.839 a position we're in with these younger kids making them a WREX device that can go with 01:03:18.839 --> 01:03:23.420 them. This is one of those industries that matches 01:03:23.420 --> 01:03:29.190 perfectly with 3D printing additive manufacturing because we need custom everything. 01:03:29.190 --> 01:03:34.700 I think 3D scanning and printing technology is the future for this field. 01:03:34.700 --> 01:03:40.210 The ABS plastic that they use is the same plastic they use in LEGO its human friendly 01:03:40.210 --> 01:03:45.190 if you will, its really strong and durable to handle the abuse, we can answer a need 01:03:45.190 --> 01:03:47.539 in a heartbeat. If the WREX breaks all I have to do is take 01:03:47.539 --> 01:03:53.279 a picture and email it to whiney, he knows exactly what the piece is, he prints it out 01:03:53.279 --> 01:03:55.880 I go to the hospital or he's even mailed them. 01:03:55.880 --> 01:04:01.900 I don't have to worry about D-time to machine something or order supplies. I can just basically 01:04:01.900 --> 01:04:04.519 go back to my program and print out another one. 01:04:04.519 --> 01:04:11.430 And it's back together and it's working. When she started to express herself we would 01:04:11.430 --> 01:04:16.190 go upstairs and we would say Emma ya know were gonna put the WREX on and she called 01:04:16.190 --> 01:04:20.450 them her magic arms and everyone in the room cried. 01:04:20.450 --> 01:04:24.960 We took it off of her on this one occasion to make some adjustments to it and as we took 01:04:24.960 --> 01:04:31.589 it off she cried out "I want that" and we didn't think all that much of it but 01:04:31.589 --> 01:04:38.400 when mom started to cry and uh. We look over and ask mom why she's crying and she kind 01:04:38.400 --> 01:04:45.150 of takes a moment to recompose herself and tell us that that was her first complete sentence. 01:04:45.150 --> 01:04:52.150 To be a part of that made it a little special moment for somebody else ya know can't help 01:05:08.920 --> 01:05:15.920 but uh kinda tug at your heart strings. 01:05:26.019 --> 01:05:27.579 Food & Accommodation The fast food industry for one is heavily 01:05:27.579 --> 01:05:34.250 under threat by the same self-serving processes mentioned earlier. In May of 2011, McDonald's 01:05:34.250 --> 01:05:39.579 announced its plans to install touch-screen technology across 7,000 restaurants in Europe. 01:05:39.579 --> 01:05:46.579 Parts of the UK have already begun implementation and in some states in America, voice recognition 01:05:47.390 --> 01:05:53.799 has replaced the drive thru. Can I get, can I get a twenty piece? 01:05:53.799 --> 01:05:59.410 A twenty piece chicken nugget, what kind of sauces would you like? 01:05:59.410 --> 01:06:04.750 Uh what is it? What kind of sauce do we have? 01:06:04.750 --> 01:06:11.140 We got that honey mustard barbecue sweet and source we got honey style hot sauce that burns 01:06:11.140 --> 01:06:18.140 for hours, we got that buffalo ranch if you need more ask chipotle barbecue ask me for 01:06:19.809 --> 01:06:20.059 more and I'll tell you. 01:06:19.809 --> 01:06:25.950 As for the kitchen staff, automated systems are already being used such processes as draining 01:06:25.950 --> 01:06:32.339 and refilling deep fat fryers, making many human tasks redundant. But perhaps the largest 01:06:32.339 --> 01:06:37.089 implied threat has to do with the American robotics company, "Momentum Machines" 01:06:37.089 --> 01:06:41.839 which is predicted to revolutionise the fast food industry. They are currently preparing 01:06:41.839 --> 01:06:46.559 to open the world's first "smart restaurant" with its automated burger machine. Capable 01:06:46.559 --> 01:06:51.410 of dispensing around three hundred and sixty burgers an hour. Not only does their machine 01:06:51.410 --> 01:06:57.069 construct and cook patties but it also slices the toppings to order and the technology even 01:06:57.069 --> 01:07:01.880 allows for customisation, composed of meat ground to order and assembled in whatever 01:07:01.880 --> 01:07:07.140 combination the customer desires. 01:07:07.140 --> 01:07:13.349 Restaurants Restaurant jobs are also threated by atomisation, 01:07:13.349 --> 01:07:20.349 whether it's assisting chefs or replacing them completely. 01:07:36.920 --> 01:07:43.920 Waiters What about the job of the restaurant waiter? 01:08:23.750 --> 01:08:29.229 Well aside from using robots, Germany is pioneering a different approach. You make your order 01:08:29.229 --> 01:08:33.170 from a touch screen situated at your table and the food is dispensed via a railing system 01:08:33.170 --> 01:08:39.520 and delivered to your table when ready. 01:08:39.520 --> 01:08:46.520 Hotels Hotel services are a little harder to automate, 01:08:50.600 --> 01:08:54.988 but obviously there are elements of automation which do reduce the workload. 01:08:54.988 --> 01:09:01.988 Straight away you have automatic check in and a restaurant which turns into a dance 01:09:05.399 --> 01:09:12.399 floor. Were at Yotel New York which opened in June 01:09:12.509 --> 01:09:18.939 2011, Yotel is a fun and futuristic brand. Some of the things we have in the hotel are 01:09:18.939 --> 01:09:20.750 motorised beds in the rooms and we have Yobot which is our answer to futuristic luggage 01:09:20.750 --> 01:09:27.750 handling. At the moment what we do is we take people's luggage and they store it in the 01:09:34.238 --> 01:09:39.089 bins provided and Yobot takes it and stores it up on the wall. What we've done now is 01:09:39.089 --> 01:09:42.420 we've agreed with the airports for example like the jet-blue terminal you'll be able 01:09:42.420 --> 01:09:46.658 to choose which airport you want to go to, say JFK or Newark, the bin will come down, 01:09:46.658 --> 01:09:51.799 you'll put the luggage in there and then Yobot will shift your luggage through tunnels 01:09:51.799 --> 01:09:58.799 in new York and you'll be able to pick it up at each of the airport terminals. Also 01:10:05.010 --> 01:10:10.060 were looking at a luggage tracker which we'll be able to download on our mobile app so youll 01:10:10.060 --> 01:10:15.090 be able to follow your luggage form its journey here at the hotel all the way to the airport 01:10:15.090 --> 01:10:20.080 and were also even looking at being able to sip people and the luggage for yotel new York 01:10:20.080 --> 01:10:23.620 to one of our airport hotels in the future. 01:10:23.620 --> 01:10:28.000 Even cleaning and maintenance is potentially threatened by a series of robots such as the 01:10:28.000 --> 01:10:35.000 Roomba autonomous hoover and the Winbot autonomous window cleaner. But perhaps there are some 01:10:37.219 --> 01:10:44.000 non-automated threats to the traditional process of accommodation. Couchsurfing.com is a sort 01:10:44.000 --> 01:10:49.570 of social network community, where people register their hospitality. The idea being, 01:10:49.570 --> 01:10:54.630 if you want to travel, you simply type where you want to go, specify how many of you are 01:10:54.630 --> 01:11:00.380 going, and then search from a list of willing participants. Within this type of community, 01:11:00.380 --> 01:11:07.380 you could potentially travel the world without any need for paid accommodation. 01:11:09.800 --> 01:11:16.800 Mining and Quarrying The Sandvik Group are currently the leading 01:11:28.790 --> 01:11:33.989 global suppliers of service and technical solutions for the mining industry. Sandvik 01:11:33.989 --> 01:11:39.340 Automine has focused its efforts on developing a comprehensive solution for improving the 01:11:39.340 --> 01:11:45.530 safety, efficiency and productivity of underground mining operations, using autonomous trucks 01:11:45.530 --> 01:11:49.820 for loading and hauling they have created a flexible system which can be adapted to 01:11:49.820 --> 01:11:54.880 the unique working environment of individual operations, even processing ore to high grade 01:11:54.880 --> 01:12:00.960 copper concentrate on site. Through automation they have eliminated many human required jobs, 01:12:00.960 --> 01:12:04.900 while increasing production with improved drilling accuracy which has also been shown 01:12:04.900 --> 01:12:11.190 to lower the risk of damage incurred by machines. Currently Sandvik Automine are optimistic 01:12:11.190 --> 01:12:18.190 about achieving 100% automation of mining. Similarly, since 2009 the Australian mining 01:12:19.380 --> 01:12:25.280 company Rio Tinto has been using a fleet of Komatsu trucks. The trucks are over twenty 01:12:25.280 --> 01:12:32.130 feet tall, weigh over ten tons, and are capable of carrying over three hundred tons of material. 01:12:32.130 --> 01:12:36.590 The trucks are fitted with Komatsu's Autonomous Haulage System which allows navigation from 01:12:36.590 --> 01:12:43.590 loading units to dump locations, including waste dumps, stockpiles and crushers. 01:12:43.679 --> 01:12:49.030 However let's take a step back. Looking at the end product of a mining operation, 01:12:49.030 --> 01:12:54.500 the reason we associate gold and silver with such a high value, is because of the difficulty 01:12:54.500 --> 01:12:59.920 in obtaining and processing these materials coupled with the time it takes for the earth 01:12:59.920 --> 01:13:06.239 to naturally produce a diamond for example. The ability to produce a diamond in a lab 01:13:06.239 --> 01:13:12.389 has been around for a long time; however gem-quality results have only been achievable in the last 01:13:12.389 --> 01:13:18.370 few years. Specifically the American company "Gemesis" have made huge advancement in 01:13:18.370 --> 01:13:24.800 the production of synthetic diamonds, with an output of up to forty rare gems each day. 01:13:24.800 --> 01:13:30.300 As for the cost, a one-carat yellow diamond from nature equates to about thirteen point 01:13:30.300 --> 01:13:36.570 five thousand pounds whereas and a synthetic replica costs just four thousand pounds. 01:13:36.570 --> 01:13:42.090 So when we begin to speculate about the future of synthetic materials perhaps it's not 01:13:42.090 --> 01:13:48.090 too farfetched to think we could create copper, coltan, gold and silver and bring these materials 01:13:48.090 --> 01:13:53.179 to market for a much lower cost than they are today, which would, invariably reduce 01:13:53.179 --> 01:14:00.179 the costs of all technological applications which depend on these materials. 01:14:10.239 --> 01:14:17.239 Construction Construction employs over 2 million people 01:14:24.900 --> 01:14:31.900 in the UK and accounts for just under seven pecent of the nation's GDP. 01:14:31.900 --> 01:14:38.900 Firstly let's look at construction as it is today. Because of all the different trades 01:14:39.330 --> 01:14:45.730 involved, Construction is prone to management inefficiency and corruption. The actual process 01:14:45.730 --> 01:14:52.520 itself is slow, labour intensive & inefficient as well as being costly and usually over budget 01:14:52.520 --> 01:14:58.050 it is also highly wasteful of resources and responsible for producing vast amounts of 01:14:58.050 --> 01:15:04.630 carbon emission. As far as safety is concerned, construction is more dangerous than both mining 01:15:04.630 --> 01:15:10.380 and agriculture. Each year an average of sixty workers are fatally injured with seventy four 01:15:10.380 --> 01:15:17.380 thousand non-fatal injuries. Now let's look at the alternative. Contour 01:15:20.030 --> 01:15:25.590 Crafting is a process developed by the University of Southern California's Information Sciences 01:15:25.590 --> 01:15:30.960 Institute. Though initially conceived as a method to construct moulds for industrial 01:15:30.960 --> 01:15:36.650 parts, the technology of rapid home construction was proposed as a way to rebuild cities after 01:15:36.650 --> 01:15:41.989 natural disasters occurred. Currently it uses a computer-controlled crane to distribute 01:15:41.989 --> 01:15:48.150 concrete layer by layer incorporating, plumbing and electrical network installation. With 01:15:48.150 --> 01:15:53.840 Contour Crafting buildings are rapidly and efficiently constructed with zero manual labour, 01:15:53.840 --> 01:15:59.969 zero waste and little emission. It is estimated an average family home could be built in less 01:15:59.969 --> 01:16:06.340 than twenty hours. However the homes of the future will not be constrained by today's 01:16:06.340 --> 01:16:12.550 architectural limitations for these machines can extrude intricate and complex designs. 01:16:12.550 --> 01:16:18.900 Perhaps the design of your home will only be limited by your imagination. Now Contour 01:16:18.900 --> 01:16:25.190 Crafting is still relatively new, however, it is easy to see how in the near future this 01:16:25.190 --> 01:16:31.320 project could be commercialized as a means of streamlining the entire construction industry. 01:16:31.320 --> 01:16:38.320 Destroying a numbers of not only those associated with construction but also those of plumbers, 01:16:39.239 --> 01:16:46.239 electricians and perhaps even architects. 01:16:48.909 --> 01:16:55.909 Education Today 01:17:03.000 --> 01:17:10.000 The mainstream method of education currently requires an all knowing authority figure fulfilling 01:17:21.320 --> 01:17:26.870 the role of teacher and relaying imperial information to student's after which said 01:17:26.870 --> 01:17:31.639 teacher will then review and grade the work of the students. This traditional approach 01:17:31.639 --> 01:17:37.730 to learning has been widely criticised throughout recent years, as it relies on rote memorisation, 01:17:37.730 --> 01:17:42.969 teaching students what to think as opposed to how to think. And using the grading system 01:17:42.969 --> 01:17:49.969 has also been shown to create structural classism. Sugata Mitra is a Professor of Educational 01:17:58.000 --> 01:18:04.150 Technology at the University of Newcastle. His first experiment in child learning began 01:18:04.150 --> 01:18:08.710 in 1999 with the hole in the wall project. Initially, a computer was placed in a kiosk 01:18:08.710 --> 01:18:13.900 built within a wall in a slum at New Delhi and children were allowed to use the computer 01:18:13.900 --> 01:18:19.489 freely. The experiment aimed to show that kids could be taught by computers very easily 01:18:19.489 --> 01:18:24.840 without any formal training and independent of adult supervision. Mitra termed this approach 01:18:24.840 --> 01:18:31.840 "Minimally Invasive Education". The experiment grew and was repeated in many places, currently 01:18:31.989 --> 01:18:37.670 there are more than twenty three hole in the wall kiosks in rural India and in 2004 was 01:18:37.670 --> 01:18:44.239 extended to Cambodia. The results have now demonstrated that groups of children, irrespective 01:18:44.239 --> 01:18:49.380 of who they are or where they are, can learn to use computers and the Internet on their 01:18:49.380 --> 01:18:54.920 own, using public computers in open spaces such as streets and playgrounds, even without 01:18:54.920 --> 01:19:01.920 initially knowing any English. I wanted to test the limits of this system. 01:19:02.070 --> 01:19:06.810 The first experiment I did out of Newcastle was actually done in India and I set myself 01:19:06.810 --> 01:19:13.810 an impossible target. Can Tamel speaking twelve year old children in a south Indian village 01:19:16.699 --> 01:19:23.139 teach themselves biotechnology in English on their own? I thought I'll test them, 01:19:23.139 --> 01:19:26.760 they'll get a zero, I'll give them material, I'll come back and test them, they'll 01:19:26.760 --> 01:19:32.760 get another zero, I'll go back and say yes we need teachers for certain things. I called 01:19:32.760 --> 01:19:37.320 in twenty six children they all came in there, I told them that there's some really difficult 01:19:37.320 --> 01:19:41.400 stuff on this computer I wouldn't be surprised if you didn't understand anything. It's 01:19:41.400 --> 01:19:47.300 all in English and I'm going. I came back after two months, the twenty six children 01:19:47.300 --> 01:19:52.170 marched in looking very, very quiet. I said well, did you look at any of the steps, they 01:19:52.170 --> 01:19:59.090 said yes we did, did you understand anything, they said no, nothing. So I said, well, how 01:19:59.090 --> 01:20:03.570 long did you practice on it before you decided you understood nothing, they said we look 01:20:03.570 --> 01:20:07.600 at it every day, so I said for two months you are looking at stuff you didn't understand, 01:20:07.600 --> 01:20:13.260 so a twelve year old girl raises her hand and says, apart from the fact improper replication 01:20:13.260 --> 01:20:17.239 of the DNA molecule causes genetic disease we've understood nothing else (crowd laughs). 01:20:17.239 --> 01:20:24.239 So the schools have gone up from 0% to 30% which is an educational impossibility under 01:20:30.370 --> 01:20:36.219 the circumstances, but 30% is not a pass. So I found that they had a friend, a local 01:20:36.219 --> 01:20:41.600 accountant, a young girl, and they play football with her. I asked that girl if they would 01:20:41.600 --> 01:20:45.190 teach them enough Biotechnology to pass and she said how would I do that, I don't know 01:20:45.190 --> 01:20:48.010 the subject, and I said no, use the method of the Grandmother, she said what's that 01:20:48.010 --> 01:20:55.010 and I said what you've got to do is stand behind them, and admire them all the time 01:20:55.510 --> 01:21:00.090 (crowd laughs), just say to them, that's cool, that's fantastic, what is that, can 01:21:00.090 --> 01:21:04.280 you do that again, can you show me some more. She did that for 2 months, the score went 01:21:04.280 --> 01:21:10.130 up to 50% which is what the posh schools of New Dehli with the trained Biotechnology teachers 01:21:10.130 --> 01:21:17.130 were getting. So I came back to Newcastle with these results and decided that there 01:21:17.360 --> 01:21:24.050 was something happening here that definitely was getting very serious. Across the River 01:21:24.050 --> 01:21:29.320 Thames, five thousand miles from Dehli, is the little town of Gateshead, in Gateshead 01:21:29.320 --> 01:21:36.320 I took thirty two children and I started to fine tune the method, I made them into groups 01:21:36.389 --> 01:21:41.170 of four, I said you make your own groups of four, each group of four can use one computer, 01:21:41.170 --> 01:21:46.699 and not four computers. You can exchange groups, you can walk across to another group if you 01:21:46.699 --> 01:21:51.760 don't like your group etc. You can go to another group, peer over their shoulder, see 01:21:51.760 --> 01:21:58.760 what they're doing, come back to your own group and claim it as your own work. The children 01:21:58.860 --> 01:22:01.590 enthusiastically got up to me and said what do you want us to do? I gave them six GCSE 01:22:01.590 --> 01:22:08.590 questions. The first group, the best one solved everything, in twenty minutes, the worst, 01:22:09.429 --> 01:22:14.360 in forty five, they used everything that they knew: Newsgroups, Google, Wikipedia, Ask Jeeves 01:22:14.360 --> 01:22:21.090 etc. The teachers said, is this deep learning, I said well, let's try it. I'll come back 01:22:21.090 --> 01:22:26.409 after two months, we'll give them a paper test, no computers, no talking to each other 01:22:26.409 --> 01:22:30.310 etc. The average score when I done it with the computers and the groups was 76%. When 01:22:30.310 --> 01:22:37.310 I did the experiment, when I did the test after two months, the score was... 76%. There 01:22:39.540 --> 01:22:45.130 was photographic recall inside the children; I suspect because they were discussing with 01:22:45.130 --> 01:22:51.250 each other, a single child in front of a single computer will not do that, I have further 01:22:51.250 --> 01:22:57.239 results which are, almost unbelievable of scores which go up with time, because the 01:22:57.239 --> 01:23:02.360 teachers say after the session is over, the children continue to Google further. Here 01:23:02.360 --> 01:23:09.360 in Britain I've put in a call for British Grandmothers, after my Kupum experiment, the 01:23:09.780 --> 01:23:16.699 deal was they would give me one hour of broadband time sitting at their homes, one day in a 01:23:16.699 --> 01:23:23.540 week. So they did that and over the last two years, over six hundred hours of instructions 01:23:23.540 --> 01:23:29.699 have been over Skype, using what my students call, the Granny Cloud. (Girl in class talking) 01:23:29.699 --> 01:23:36.699 Back in Gateshead, a ten year old girl gets into the heart of Hinduism, in fifteen minutes, 01:23:37.280 --> 01:23:44.280 you know stuff which don't know, anything about (crowd laughs), Two children watch a 01:23:44.739 --> 01:23:50.830 TED talk, they wanted to be footballers before, after watching eight TED talks, he wants to 01:23:50.830 --> 01:23:57.830 become Leonardo Da Vinci (crowd laughs) (applause), it's pretty simple stuff. This is what I'm 01:24:00.389 --> 01:24:07.389 building now, they are called SOLEs, Self-Organised Learning Environments, the furniture is designed 01:24:07.900 --> 01:24:13.909 so children can sit in front of big, powerful screens, big broadband connections but in 01:24:13.909 --> 01:24:19.830 groups. If they want they can call the Granny Cloud, this is a SOLE in Newcastle, the mediator 01:24:19.830 --> 01:24:26.830 is from Umea, India. So how far can we go, I think we've just stumbled across a self-organising 01:24:27.150 --> 01:24:32.909 system. A self-organising system is one where a structure appears without explicit intervention 01:24:32.909 --> 01:24:38.369 from the outside, self-organising systems also always show emergence, which is when 01:24:38.369 --> 01:24:43.570 the system starts to do things which it was never designed for, which is why you react 01:24:43.570 --> 01:24:49.969 the way you do because it looks impossible. I think I can make a guess now, education 01:24:49.969 --> 01:24:54.940 is organising system, where learning is an emergent phenomenon, it will take a few years 01:24:54.940 --> 01:24:59.380 to prove it experimentally but I'm going to try but in the meanwhile there is a method 01:24:59.380 --> 01:25:04.239 available. One billion children, we will need one hundred million mediators, there are many 01:25:04.239 --> 01:25:09.550 more than that on the planet, ten million SOLEs, one hundred and eighty billion dollars 01:25:09.550 --> 01:25:13.030 and ten years, we could change everything! 01:25:13.030 --> 01:25:20.030 So, children left to their own devices are capable of self-learning, perhaps limited 01:25:20.719 --> 01:25:27.360 only by their ability to search for information. But what if this process was made easier? 01:25:27.360 --> 01:25:33.480 What if there was a website which consolidated a vast range of subjects with short educational 01:25:33.480 --> 01:25:39.820 explanatory videos, detailing almost every aspect of mathematics, history, healthcare, 01:25:39.820 --> 01:25:46.820 medicine, finance, physics, chemistry, biology, astronomy, economics, cosmology, civics and 01:25:47.960 --> 01:25:53.619 computer science. Well that website exists; it's called the Kahn academy, developed 01:25:53.619 --> 01:25:59.170 by Salman Kahn in 2006. The site currently has more than 4,000 micro lectures and has 01:25:59.170 --> 01:26:05.000 delivered over two hundred and forty million lessons worldwide. In fact the Kahn academy 01:26:05.000 --> 01:26:11.440 has been so successful it is likely the primary inspiration behind Academic Earth, which has 01:26:11.440 --> 01:26:17.580 evolved the concept to include actual lectures form more than forty top US colleges including 01:26:17.580 --> 01:26:24.580 Harvard, MIT, Princeton, Stanford, and Yale. Since Academic Earth, a group of educators 01:26:24.610 --> 01:26:31.050 from Stanford University have formed Coursea. Adopting the same premise as Kahn and Academic 01:26:31.050 --> 01:26:38.050 Earth, However, with Coursea upon the completion of on-line courses, students are awarded certificates 01:26:38.270 --> 01:26:44.199 which can and indeed have been used to gain employment and in some cases, as a substitute 01:26:44.199 --> 01:26:51.199 for credit in real world educational institutions. 01:26:54.179 --> 01:27:01.179 Arts & Entertainment Incentive 01:27:06.850 --> 01:27:13.850 In looking at the future of the arts in relation to jobs, I feel an important distinction must 01:27:15.100 --> 01:27:18.570 be drawn. There are really two concepts of employment 01:27:18.570 --> 01:27:25.449 which tends to go unacknowledged. The first is driven by financial necessity. This version 01:27:25.449 --> 01:27:30.770 makes employment something we submit to in order to gain access to our life supporting 01:27:30.770 --> 01:27:36.500 needs; the other is driven by passion, making employment a creative outlet where financial 01:27:36.500 --> 01:27:43.500 stability is a by-product and not the primary motivation. In fact when it comes to art, 01:27:43.760 --> 01:27:50.760 or any process involving creativity, monetary rewards are actually in-verse to productivity. 01:27:55.940 --> 01:28:01.440 Our motivations are unbelievably interesting. The science is really surprising. The science 01:28:01.440 --> 01:28:08.290 is a little bit freaky, okay. We are not as endlessly manipulable and predictable as you 01:28:08.290 --> 01:28:13.139 would think. There's a whole set of unbelievably interesting studies. I want to give you two 01:28:13.139 --> 01:28:17.159 that call into question this whole idea that if you reward something you get more of the 01:28:17.159 --> 01:28:19.520 behaviour you want, if you punish something you get less of it. 01:28:19.520 --> 01:28:25.920 So let's go from London to the mean streets of Cambridge, Massachusetts, in the northeastern 01:28:25.920 --> 01:28:29.260 part of the United States, and let's talk about a study done at MIT -- Massachusetts 01:28:29.260 --> 01:28:33.280 Institute of Technology. Here's what they did: they took a whole group of students and 01:28:33.280 --> 01:28:39.330 gave them a set of challenges. Things like memorizing a string of digits, solving word 01:28:39.330 --> 01:28:43.600 puzzles, other kinds of spatial puzzles, even physical tasks like throwing a ball through 01:28:43.600 --> 01:28:48.239 a hoop. They gave 'em these challenges and they said to incentivize their performance, 01:28:48.239 --> 01:28:53.010 they gave them three levels of rewards, okay. So if you did pretty well you got a small 01:28:53.010 --> 01:28:58.580 monetary reward, if you did medium well you got a medium reward, and if you did really 01:28:58.580 --> 01:29:03.630 well, if you were one of the top performers, you got a large cash prize. We've seen this 01:29:03.630 --> 01:29:09.210 movie before. This is a typical motivation scheme within organizations. Right? We reward 01:29:09.210 --> 01:29:14.960 the very top performers, we ignore the low performers, and the folks in the middle...okay, 01:29:14.960 --> 01:29:20.639 you get a little. So what happens? They do the test, they have these incentives, and 01:29:20.639 --> 01:29:25.820 here's what they found out: (1) As long as the task involved only mechanical 01:29:25.820 --> 01:29:31.610 skill, bonuses worked as would be expected: the higher the pay, the better the performance. 01:29:31.610 --> 01:29:37.719 That makes sense. But here's what happened: once the test called for even rudimentary 01:29:37.719 --> 01:29:44.719 cognitive skill, a larger reward led to poorer performance! Now this is strange...a larger 01:29:45.469 --> 01:29:50.070 reward led to poorer performance. How can that possibly be? Now what's interesting about 01:29:50.070 --> 01:29:55.420 this is that the folks who did it are all economists -- two at MIT, one at the University 01:29:55.420 --> 01:29:59.440 of Chicago, one at Carnegie Mellon -- okay, the top tier of the economics profession, 01:29:59.440 --> 01:30:04.650 and they're reaching this conclusion that seems contrary to what most of us learned 01:30:04.650 --> 01:30:08.699 in economics, which is that the higher the reward, the better the performance. And they're 01:30:08.699 --> 01:30:15.699 saying, once you get above rudimentary cognitive skill, it's the other way around. The idea 01:30:16.159 --> 01:30:21.650 that these rewards don't work that way seems vaguely left wing and socialist, doesn't it? 01:30:21.650 --> 01:30:26.880 It's this weird, socialist conspiracy. For those of you who have those conspiracy theories, 01:30:26.880 --> 01:30:32.230 I want to point out the notoriously left-wing socialist group that financed the research: 01:30:32.230 --> 01:30:37.489 the Federal Reserve Bank -- the most mainstream of the mainstream coming to a conclusion that 01:30:37.489 --> 01:30:43.219 seems to defy the laws of behavioural physics! So this is strange, strange findings. So what 01:30:43.219 --> 01:30:49.860 do they do? They say let's go test it somewhere else. Maybe that $50, $60 prize isn't sufficiently 01:30:49.860 --> 01:30:56.770 motivating for MIT students. Let's go to a place where $50 is more significant relatively. 01:30:56.770 --> 01:31:00.659 So we're gonna take the experiment and go to Madurai, India -- rural India -- where 01:31:00.659 --> 01:31:05.810 $50, $60, whatever the number was is actually a significant sum of money. So they replicated 01:31:05.810 --> 01:31:11.020 the experiment in India roughly as follows: the small rewards were roughly the equivalent 01:31:11.020 --> 01:31:18.020 of two weeks' salary; medium performance, about a month's salary; high performance, 01:31:20.320 --> 01:31:25.780 about two months' salary. Those are good incentives, so you're probably goanna get a different 01:31:25.780 --> 01:31:31.409 result here. But what happened was that, the people offered the medium reward did no better 01:31:31.409 --> 01:31:35.280 than the people offered the small reward. But this time around the people offered the 01:31:35.280 --> 01:31:40.139 highest reward did worst of all! Higher incentives led to worse performances. What's interesting 01:31:40.139 --> 01:31:44.540 about this is it isn't all that anomalous. This has been replicated over and over and 01:31:44.540 --> 01:31:51.130 over again by psychologists, by sociologists, and by economists -- over and over and over 01:31:51.130 --> 01:31:55.540 again. For simple, straightforward tasks, these kinds of incentives -- "If you do 01:31:55.540 --> 01:31:59.780 this then you get that" -- they're great. For tasks that are algorithmic, you just follow 01:31:59.780 --> 01:32:06.780 a set of rules; get a right answer, if then, carrots and sticks...outstanding. But when 01:32:09.340 --> 01:32:13.840 a task gets more complicated, when it requires some conceptual, creative thinking, those 01:32:13.840 --> 01:32:20.840 kinds of motivators demonstrably don't work. Fact: money is a motivator at work, but in 01:32:21.030 --> 01:32:25.639 a slightly strange way. If you don't pay people enough they won't be motivated. What's curious 01:32:25.639 --> 01:32:30.030 is there's another paradox here, that the best use of money as a motivator is to pay 01:32:30.030 --> 01:32:34.630 people enough to take the issue of money off the table. Pay people enough that they're 01:32:34.630 --> 01:32:38.330 not thinking about money, they're thinking about the work. Once you do that, it turns 01:32:38.330 --> 01:32:44.080 out there are three factors that science shows lead to better performance, not to mention 01:32:44.080 --> 01:32:48.389 personal satisfaction: autonomy, mastery, and purpose. 01:32:48.389 --> 01:32:53.110 Autonomy is our desire to be self-directed -- to direct our own lives. In many ways, 01:32:53.110 --> 01:32:57.650 traditional notions of management runs afoul of that. Management is great if you want compliance; 01:32:57.650 --> 01:33:01.119 but if you want engagement, which is what we want in the workplace today as people are 01:33:01.119 --> 01:33:06.210 doing more complicated, sophisticated things, self-direction is better. Let me give you 01:33:06.210 --> 01:33:10.540 some examples of this. One of the most radical forms of self-direction in the workplace that 01:33:10.540 --> 01:33:16.500 leads to good results. Let's start with Atlassian -- an Australian software company, and they 01:33:16.500 --> 01:33:20.520 do something really cool. Once a quarter on a Thursday afternoon, they say 01:33:20.520 --> 01:33:25.550 to their developers, "For the next 24 hours you can work anything you want. You can work 01:33:25.550 --> 01:33:29.190 on it the way you want, you can work on it with whoever you want. All we ask is that 01:33:29.190 --> 01:33:33.280 you show those results to the company at the end of the 24 hours." And it's a fun kind 01:33:33.280 --> 01:33:40.139 of meeting, with beer and cake, and fun, and other things like that. It turns out that 01:33:40.139 --> 01:33:46.790 that one day of pure, undiluted autonomy has led to a whole array of fixes for existing 01:33:46.790 --> 01:33:51.840 software, a whole array of ideas for new products that otherwise would have never emerged. One 01:33:51.840 --> 01:33:54.119 day! Now this is not an "if then" incentive. 01:33:54.119 --> 01:33:57.139 This is not the sort of thing I would have done three years ago, before I heard this 01:33:57.139 --> 01:34:01.969 research. I would've said, you want people to be creative and innovative? Give 'em a 01:34:01.969 --> 01:34:05.460 freakin innovation bonus. "If you can do something cool, I'll give you $2,500." They're 01:34:05.460 --> 01:34:09.429 not doing this at all. They're essentially saying, you probably wanna do something interesting, 01:34:09.429 --> 01:34:13.989 let me just get out of your way. One day of autonomy produces things that would never 01:34:13.989 --> 01:34:16.730 emerge. Now let's talk about mastery. Mastery is our 01:34:16.730 --> 01:34:21.739 urge to get better at stuff. We like to get better at stuff. This is why people play musical 01:34:21.739 --> 01:34:27.369 instruments on the weekend. These people act in ways that don't make any sense economically. 01:34:27.369 --> 01:34:33.179 They play musical instruments on the weekends. Why? It's not gonna make them any money. 'Cause 01:34:33.179 --> 01:34:38.040 it's fun. 'Cause you get better at it, and that's satisfying. Go back in time a little 01:34:38.040 --> 01:34:42.949 bit. Imagine. I imagine if I went to my first economics professor, a woman named Mary Alice 01:34:42.949 --> 01:34:49.489 Shulman, if I went to her in 1983 and said, "Professor Shulman, can I talk to you after 01:34:49.489 --> 01:34:54.020 class a minute? I got this inkling...I've got this idea for a business model; I just 01:34:54.020 --> 01:34:59.790 wanna run it past you. Here's how it would work: you get a bunch of people around the 01:34:59.790 --> 01:35:06.060 world that are doing highly skilled work, but they're willing to do it for free and 01:35:06.060 --> 01:35:11.119 volunteer their time -- twenty, sometimes thirty hours a week." She's looking at me 01:35:11.119 --> 01:35:16.770 somewhat skeptically now. "Oh, but I'm not done! Then, what they create, they give it 01:35:16.770 --> 01:35:23.770 away rather than sell it. It's gonna be huge!" She would have thought I was insane. It seems 01:35:24.719 --> 01:35:30.449 to fly in the face of so many things. But you have Linux powering servers in one out 01:35:30.449 --> 01:35:36.010 of four Fortune 500 companies. You have Apache powering more than the majority of web servers. 01:35:36.010 --> 01:35:40.949 You have Wikipedia. What's going on? Why are people doing this? Why are these people, many 01:35:40.949 --> 01:35:46.989 of whom are technically sophisticated, highly skilled people--who have jobs, they have jobs, 01:35:46.989 --> 01:35:53.989 they're working at jobs for pay doing sophisticated technical work -- and yet, during their limited 01:35:54.239 --> 01:36:00.510 discretionary time, they do equally if not more technically sophisticated work, not for 01:36:00.510 --> 01:36:06.219 their employer, but for someone else for free! That's a strange economic behavior! Economists 01:36:06.219 --> 01:36:12.070 have looked into it: why are they doing this? It's overwhelmingly clear: challenge and mastery, 01:36:12.070 --> 01:36:15.360 along with making a contribution, that's it. What you're seeing, more and more, what's 01:36:15.360 --> 01:36:21.090 arising is what you might call the purpose motive. Organizations want to have some kind 01:36:21.090 --> 01:36:25.239 of transcendent purpose -- partly because it makes coming to work better, partly because 01:36:25.239 --> 01:36:31.530 that's the way to get better talent. And what we're seeing now is when the profit motive 01:36:31.530 --> 01:36:37.540 becomes unmoored from the purpose motive, bad things happen. Bad things ethically sometimes, 01:36:37.540 --> 01:36:44.540 but also bad things like just like not good stuff. Like crappy products, like lame services, 01:36:45.020 --> 01:36:50.489 like uninspiring places to work. When the profit motive is paramount or when it becomes 01:36:50.489 --> 01:36:56.040 completely unhitched from the purpose motive, people don't do great things. 01:36:56.040 --> 01:36:59.830 More and more organizations are realizing this, sort of disturbing the categories between 01:36:59.830 --> 01:37:05.489 what's profit and what's purpose. And I think that heralds something interesting. I think 01:37:05.489 --> 01:37:09.940 the companies that are flourishing, whether they're non-profit, for profit, or somewhere 01:37:09.940 --> 01:37:13.800 in between, are animated by this purpose model. Let me give you a few examples: Here's the 01:37:13.800 --> 01:37:18.639 founder of Skype. He says our goal is to be disruptive but in the cause of making the 01:37:18.639 --> 01:37:25.400 world a better place, pretty good purpose. Here's Steve Jobs. I wanna put a ding in the 01:37:25.400 --> 01:37:29.580 universe. Alright, that's the kind of thing that might get you up in the morning racing 01:37:29.580 --> 01:37:35.139 to go to work. So I think we are purpose maximizers, not 01:37:35.139 --> 01:37:40.460 only profit maximizers. The science shows that we care very, very deeply about mastery, 01:37:40.460 --> 01:37:44.489 and the science shows that we want to be self- directed. So I think the big takeaway here 01:37:44.489 --> 01:37:50.969 is that if we start treating people like people, and not assuming they're simply horses -- slower, 01:37:50.969 --> 01:37:56.110 smaller, better smelling horses -- if we get past this ideology of carrots and sticks 01:37:56.110 --> 01:38:01.280 and look at the science, I think we can actually build organizations and work lives that make 01:38:01.280 --> 01:38:04.940 us better off, and I think we also have the promise to make our world just a little bit 01:38:04.940 --> 01:38:06.909 better. 01:38:06.909 --> 01:38:13.909 So, while the all the mundane repetitive jobs are being assigned to machines, the jobs which 01:38:17.199 --> 01:38:24.179 exist outside of a computer's creative capabilities, are in fact jobs which would exist regardless 01:38:24.179 --> 01:38:30.530 of financial reward and in fact produce better results without the incentive. 01:38:30.530 --> 01:38:37.530 Media Earlier we looked at the possibility of certain 01:38:38.969 --> 01:38:43.380 media companies becoming exclusive to app form, but what would the future of media look 01:38:43.380 --> 01:38:49.560 like if a website such as Youtube, decided to adopt the same feature of paid-subscription 01:38:49.560 --> 01:38:56.560 viewing? Incorporating say, an embedded planner interface? Well for one, YouTube would have 01:38:57.010 --> 01:39:02.330 an immediate advantage as their planer could be customizable, and rather than having pay 01:39:02.330 --> 01:39:07.929 for an entire package of channels, users would have the option of paying for individual programing. 01:39:07.929 --> 01:39:12.010 The programs themselves would no longer be constrained by the time slot limitations of 01:39:12.010 --> 01:39:19.010 a typical TV network, for each program could have its own channel. But this is all merely 01:39:19.010 --> 01:39:25.810 speculation right? Well no, turns out YouTube are currently preparing to switch on live 01:39:25.810 --> 01:39:28.969 stream subscription viewing. 01:39:28.969 --> 01:39:34.489 Film The most profitable sector in the entertainment 01:39:34.489 --> 01:39:40.610 business is the film industry. One of the reasons is due to just how expensive it is 01:39:40.610 --> 01:39:46.409 to actually make a film, accounting for the sheer amount of people involved in production. 01:39:46.409 --> 01:39:51.540 But many production elements are quickly becoming redundant by the ever improving capabilities 01:39:51.540 --> 01:39:58.540 of GCI. If filming outside; you only have a few of hours of light each day to maintain 01:40:03.469 --> 01:40:10.469 continuity. With CGI, backdrops and lighting can be controlled in a green lit studio. As 01:40:13.909 --> 01:40:20.909 far as on screen performance, movies tend to have dozens of actors each requiring multiple 01:40:21.020 --> 01:40:28.020 takes of a scene and character CGI has typically been reserved for cartoonish features. Well, 01:40:30.780 --> 01:40:36.969 as the technology advances CGI is getting ever closer to reflecting reality. 01:40:36.969 --> 01:40:43.969 Ok first thing smile, frown, look mean, eyebrows up, eyebrows down, move your mouth around 01:40:48.989 --> 01:40:55.989 like this, now go A, A, E, E, I, I, O, U, very good. 01:41:00.219 --> 01:41:07.119 With CGI an actor could perform every scene of a movie inside a green lit studio and since 01:41:07.119 --> 01:41:13.659 his image is rendered, you could have a single actor performing multiple rolls. perhaps every 01:41:13.659 --> 01:41:20.070 roll in the entire movie could be performed by just 4 or 5 actors and since their emotions 01:41:20.070 --> 01:41:25.090 would be captured and stored on the computers, in the future, rather than having to shoot 01:41:25.090 --> 01:41:31.440 a scene over and over until finally getting the desired emotional response, perhaps directors 01:41:31.440 --> 01:41:37.400 will have the option of choosing from a database of preprogramed actions. 01:41:37.400 --> 01:41:42.679 All of this implying mass reduction in the volume of people needed to make a film. Now, 01:41:42.679 --> 01:41:47.330 I'm sure many will see the lump of labour fallacy here, and point out that new jobs 01:41:47.330 --> 01:41:54.330 would emerge in the form building the CGI, however, video games are entirely CGI, and 01:41:54.560 --> 01:42:01.560 the development of a game currently cost between $500k--$5M compared that with the starting 01:42:02.489 --> 01:42:08.389 price of two hundred million dollars for a Hollywood movie. And then there's the open 01:42:08.389 --> 01:42:14.400 source community. Blender for one is an open source 3D modelling program. Since the blender 01:42:14.400 --> 01:42:19.889 project began, a community of volunteers have downloaded the source code and over time, 01:42:19.889 --> 01:42:25.570 made gradual improvements to the programs functionality. Today blender is capable of 01:42:25.570 --> 01:42:29.520 producing this. Why don't you just admit that you're freaked 01:42:29.520 --> 01:42:36.520 out by my robot hand? Ahggg c'mon 01:42:41.500 --> 01:42:48.500 Human! This is pretty freaky 01:42:59.460 --> 01:43:06.460 "Tears of Steel" 01:43:10.239 --> 01:43:17.239 Professional, Scientific & Technical 01:43:21.020 --> 01:43:25.489 This sector covers a vast range of jobs and I feel it would be far too time consuming 01:43:25.489 --> 01:43:31.469 to address each in great detail. So let's run through these quickly. The workload typically 01:43:31.469 --> 01:43:35.690 required with legal advice and representation, is now being diminished through the use of 01:43:35.690 --> 01:43:41.699 e-discovery, which enables 1 lawyer to do the work of 500 01:43:41.699 --> 01:43:45.830 Accounting services are being replaced with software such as KashFlow which can actually 01:43:45.830 --> 01:43:52.830 track bank transactions, obviating the need for manual input accounting. 01:43:53.969 --> 01:43:58.710 Translation and interpretation services are also replaceable with software such as Lingual 01:43:58.710 --> 01:44:05.710 which uses apple's Siri technology to translate between 35 languages in real-time. 01:44:18.050 --> 01:44:22.349 Architectural work may over time become less of a specialist subject. As computers grew 01:44:22.349 --> 01:44:26.889 throughout the 90's necessity demanded the majority of us familiarize ourselves with 01:44:26.889 --> 01:44:32.520 operating systems. I believe the advancements in 3D printing will demand that people become 01:44:32.520 --> 01:44:38.469 failure with computer aided design. And as the software improves, much of the architectural 01:44:38.469 --> 01:44:45.469 process could be constructed in a program similar to a Sims game. 01:44:46.219 --> 01:44:53.219 Engineering, Computer system design, Photography and Scientific research all seem to fall under 01:44:55.270 --> 01:45:02.270 the umbrella of creativity which as demonstrated earlier would exist regardless of paid employment. 01:45:04.690 --> 01:45:09.150 Advertising services may be under threat if YouTube were to eliminate their competition 01:45:09.150 --> 01:45:16.150 and also incorporate a paid viewing feature which disables advertising. 01:45:16.420 --> 01:45:23.420 Consulting services I think can easily be replaced with advanced voice recognition software. 01:45:27.690 --> 01:45:34.690 Administrative & Support Services 01:45:47.679 --> 01:45:54.679 The core job of an administrator is to process, filter, organize and categorise personal data. 01:45:55.080 --> 01:46:00.960 Facebook has recently shown the potential of account synchronization. Instead of having 01:46:00.960 --> 01:46:06.550 to fill out a form every time we register to a new website, Now we have the single click 01:46:06.550 --> 01:46:11.639 option of "register through Facebook", where all the user has to do I click this 01:46:11.639 --> 01:46:18.010 button and the website dose the rest. Of course Facebook is a social network and likely contains 01:46:18.010 --> 01:46:24.360 information not necessarily relevant to third party organizations. But if the government 01:46:24.360 --> 01:46:29.719 were to further the train of thought here, we could instate a nationalised social HUB, 01:46:29.719 --> 01:46:34.750 whereby those of us with say a national insurance number, could at least have the option of 01:46:34.750 --> 01:46:39.710 having our relevant details authenticated and synced with our national insurance accounts, 01:46:39.710 --> 01:46:45.110 and once the information has been submitted and synced, applying for government benefits, 01:46:45.110 --> 01:46:50.199 bank loans, college placements or even making a dentist appointment, could all be achieved 01:46:50.199 --> 01:46:56.500 much faster through the on-line hub, reducing our dependency on the processing requirements 01:46:56.500 --> 01:47:02.380 of these time consuming middlemen, and having a regulated information HUB could also extend 01:47:02.380 --> 01:47:07.429 to the elimination or at the very least a downgrading of the postal service, for all 01:47:07.429 --> 01:47:14.429 forms of documentation could be securely transferred electronically to authenticated email addresses. 01:47:23.400 --> 01:47:30.400 Financial & Insurance 01:47:43.940 --> 01:47:49.219 The world of finances and insurance is obviously dependent upon the circulation of money. So 01:47:49.219 --> 01:47:54.500 rather than address specific elements of this sector, it's perhaps easier to simply look 01:47:54.500 --> 01:48:00.659 at the root cause of our pending financial collapse. Far from automated systems the fall 01:48:00.659 --> 01:48:07.659 of the global financial economy, will result from simple causation principles in mathematics. 01:48:08.219 --> 01:48:12.199 Almost every form of trade in the world is represented through currency. Currency is 01:48:12.199 --> 01:48:19.199 a proclamation where a certain value is identified by a number. One pound will represent a value, 01:48:20.090 --> 01:48:25.409 which can differ slightly between traders but generally holds an accepted range, and 01:48:25.409 --> 01:48:31.210 this ranging value is not determined or decided by politicians or bankers, it's a value 01:48:31.210 --> 01:48:38.030 derived from the market. When calculating the cost of housing, energy, transportation, 01:48:38.030 --> 01:48:43.780 as well as goods and services, we are presented with a consumer price index and thus derive 01:48:43.780 --> 01:48:50.110 the overall market value of the pound. The markets themselves are predicated on consumer 01:48:50.110 --> 01:48:55.770 spending. So if all consumers continually spend the same amount, the markets prices 01:48:55.770 --> 01:49:02.770 would stabilize and the economy could potentially function harmoniously, neither growing nor 01:49:03.070 --> 01:49:07.900 contracting. But let's step back and look at where money actually comes from in the 01:49:07.900 --> 01:49:14.900 first place. All money in circulation was created by and is the property of the central 01:49:16.300 --> 01:49:23.060 bank, in our case the bank of England. This bank loans money to the commercial and investment 01:49:23.060 --> 01:49:29.590 banks, which then issue loans themselves to rival banks, consumers and businesses, so 01:49:29.590 --> 01:49:35.880 since we are all trading borrowed money, cyclical consumption is not only a necessity for ensuring 01:49:35.880 --> 01:49:42.650 the integrity of the pound, it is also a requirement for the banks, thus the currency, to remain 01:49:42.650 --> 01:49:49.650 operational. Only one problem with this, this borrowing from the banks process isn't quite 01:49:50.060 --> 01:49:54.880 the same as a game of Monopoly where a friend might loan you some cash until you pass go! 01:49:54.880 --> 01:50:00.239 All the money borrowed from both the central and commercial banks, has to be paid back 01:50:00.239 --> 01:50:06.929 with interest, but since the interest is in fact NOT created alongside the initial loan, 01:50:06.929 --> 01:50:12.670 the ability to pay back more money than exists in principle is a mathematical impossibility 01:50:12.670 --> 01:50:19.670 if the goal was maintaining economic harmony. So instead we try to resolve the problem generated 01:50:20.739 --> 01:50:26.449 with interest, through a process called quantitative easing, in which the banks may temporarily 01:50:26.449 --> 01:50:31.310 lower interest rates and the government will often borrow even more money at interest, 01:50:31.310 --> 01:50:36.329 in an effort to grow the economy. See rather than address the fundamental flaw 01:50:36.329 --> 01:50:43.329 of this system, we instead perpetuate an infinite growth paradigm, which of course, is ultimately 01:50:44.199 --> 01:50:50.949 unsustainable on a finite planet, and in looking at the numbers it doesn't seem this quantitative 01:50:50.949 --> 01:50:57.340 easing has had much effect, here's the average monthly consumer costs in 2008, compared with 01:50:57.340 --> 01:51:04.340 today, we have an overall price increase of 25% while wages during the same time only 01:51:04.840 --> 01:51:11.840 rose by 6%. These results are simply because perpetual growth is unsustainable and Bankruptcy, 01:51:13.469 --> 01:51:19.300 redundancy, foreclosure, administrations, liquidations, loan defaults and the raising 01:51:19.300 --> 01:51:24.219 of a country's debt ceiling, are all built in consequential and we should expect nothing 01:51:24.219 --> 01:51:31.219 ells of this system. 01:51:39.460 --> 01:51:46.460 Other Having looked at each sector of employment, 01:51:56.500 --> 01:52:02.239 it appears we are heading towards a fully automated economy, some might say this would 01:52:02.239 --> 01:52:08.179 still require lots of human workers? Machines after all do have at least one constraint, 01:52:08.179 --> 01:52:13.949 while they can work without a monetary incentive, the do require energy. 01:52:13.949 --> 01:52:19.150 Our current methods of energy cultivation result in the depletion of natural oil and 01:52:19.150 --> 01:52:25.000 the burning of CO2 emitting fossil fuels, but these methods are wasteful, cumbersome 01:52:25.000 --> 01:52:30.349 and quite frankly out-dated. Solutions to the energy crisis are often cited in the form 01:52:30.349 --> 01:52:36.260 of nuclear power, but after the disasters in Japan, perhaps we should be looking to 01:52:36.260 --> 01:52:41.730 cleaner, safer solutions. Solar energy is gradually becoming more and 01:52:41.730 --> 01:52:45.949 more accepted by the mainstream, even the government are incentivising home owners to 01:52:45.949 --> 01:52:51.530 adopt solar panels with the Feed-In Tariffs scheme, where participants will be compensated 01:52:51.530 --> 01:52:57.650 for any surplus energy generated. While an initial solar panel investment may deter some 01:52:57.650 --> 01:53:02.929 of us, it's reassuring to know that the cost of solar is currently dropping at a rate 01:53:02.929 --> 01:53:09.929 of 30% per year. But could we really sustain our energy needs on solar panels alone? Well 01:53:10.440 --> 01:53:14.320 firstly, solar technology is not limited to buildings. 01:53:14.320 --> 01:53:19.909 An American company called solar roadways are developing photovoltaic solar roads. With 01:53:19.909 --> 01:53:24.989 current technology it is estimated that full integration of solar roads across the US, 01:53:24.989 --> 01:53:30.000 would generate enough power to satisfy the current energy usage of the entire planet. 01:53:30.000 --> 01:53:35.579 These roads also incorporate LED displays which could probably be programed to coincide 01:53:35.579 --> 01:53:40.730 with autonomous vehicles ensuring even greater road safety. The roads in colder climates 01:53:40.730 --> 01:53:45.679 would be installed with embedded heating elements, eliminating ice and snow hazards as well as 01:53:45.679 --> 01:53:52.679 the required jobs of snow ploughs and gritters. Solar energy aside, how about wind? According 01:53:55.070 --> 01:54:00.820 to the US department of energy, if wind turbines were fully harvested in just 3 of Americas 01:54:00.820 --> 01:54:07.679 50 states, the energy cultivated would be enough to power the whole of the USA. But 01:54:07.679 --> 01:54:13.150 wind farming is also not limited to the gigantic turbines which most of us are aware of. We 01:54:13.150 --> 01:54:19.260 could be utilizing vertical axis wind turbines with magnetic bearings, which cause the wind 01:54:19.260 --> 01:54:24.960 vain to levitate. Reducing the friction and cut-in wind speed usually hindered by gears. 01:54:24.960 --> 01:54:29.150 You could literally blow on these things and create energy, 01:54:29.150 --> 01:54:35.880 So what happens when we placed vertical axis turbines inside street lamps? Well, when a 01:54:35.880 --> 01:54:40.980 vehicle drives past it creates a gust of wind and in turn powers the lights. 01:54:40.980 --> 01:54:47.980 Then we have tidal power. According to Crown Estate, the UK has the potential to harness 01:54:48.310 --> 01:54:55.310 up to 153 gigawatts, accounting for more than 20% of our current energy usage. They also 01:54:55.500 --> 01:55:02.500 found a potential 27 gigawatts from wave energy. And then of course we have geothermal power. 01:55:04.099 --> 01:55:09.389 So here's the earth, in countries like Canada and the United States seasons come and go. 01:55:09.389 --> 01:55:13.090 In the summer months it can be quite warm and in the winter very cold, while the temperature 01:55:13.090 --> 01:55:16.810 of the surface for the earth changes with the seasons, the temperature of the ground 01:55:16.810 --> 01:55:21.290 below the surface does not. Even at just two meters or six feet under the ground it is 01:55:21.290 --> 01:55:26.690 about fifteen degrees Celsius or sixty degrees farenheight all year round. Geothermal takes 01:55:26.690 --> 01:55:31.290 advantage of this consistent temperature and uses it to heat and cool homes. So how does 01:55:31.290 --> 01:55:35.260 it work? First, a large hole is made into the ground and filled with a series of pipes 01:55:35.260 --> 01:55:39.940 a special heat absorbing fluid constantly runs through the pipes. In the winter, heat 01:55:39.940 --> 01:55:43.739 from the ground is absorbed into the pipes and pushed upwards where it can be circulated 01:55:43.739 --> 01:55:48.599 throughout the house. In the summer the process is reversed, heat from the house is absorbed 01:55:48.599 --> 01:55:52.510 into the pipes and pushed downwards where it can be stores within the cooler earth. 01:55:52.510 --> 01:55:57.719 So what are the benefits of geothermal heating? Well for one you can save a lot of money geothermal 01:55:57.719 --> 01:56:02.010 uses way less energy to operate and this means a heating bill that is up to eighty percent 01:56:02.010 --> 01:56:06.719 lower than that of a traditional heating system, secondly geothermal doesn't run on fossil 01:56:06.719 --> 01:56:11.699 fuels like oil or gas and therefore produces significantly less greenhouse gasses. So, 01:56:11.699 --> 01:56:18.699 look into geothermal today for a cleaner and sustainable source of energy. 01:56:21.369 --> 01:56:28.079 As well as heating homes, geothermal is being used to convert heat in to energy. And in 01:56:28.079 --> 01:56:34.429 a 2006 MIT study, geothermal was found to have an energy potential of two thousand zenojules. 01:56:34.429 --> 01:56:40.790 The total global energy consumption is currently around one half a zenejule per year, signifying 01:56:40.790 --> 01:56:47.239 four thousand years of planetary power from geothermal alone. Meaning the powering of 01:56:47.239 --> 01:56:53.670 an automated economy is simply a non-issue. But then there's the other argument regarding 01:56:53.670 --> 01:57:00.670 machine maintenance. It is now a general assumption that all machines are in constant need repairs. 01:57:00.820 --> 01:57:07.739 And well, this is true, at least with respects to market products. See within the market 01:57:07.739 --> 01:57:13.639 there is planned obsolescence, in order to maintain cyclical consumption of goods, it 01:57:13.639 --> 01:57:20.639 is crucial that products have a short lifespan. The biggest issue or potential flaw to me 01:57:20.929 --> 01:57:27.929 over this invention is the fact, that it's not an invention or a product that actually 01:57:27.969 --> 01:57:33.800 will be purchased more than once, you kind of almost want your product to break occasionally. 01:57:33.800 --> 01:57:40.800 If we were to removed our dependency on cyclical consumption we could create products to last, 01:57:42.010 --> 01:57:48.840 and the only threat to a machines lifespan, would be atmospheric erosion. This is why 01:57:48.840 --> 01:57:55.159 in the future all machine parts will be treated with a super hydrophobic coating, which uses 01:57:55.159 --> 01:58:02.159 nanotechnology to repel water and refined oils. 01:58:38.770 --> 01:58:45.770 Problem 01:59:19.099 --> 01:59:24.050 Even when we do recognize the implications of mass mechanisation, people tend to think 01:59:24.050 --> 01:59:30.659 "not my job, not the job I happen to have spent four years studying for, the business 01:59:30.659 --> 01:59:36.770 my family left me, the product I invested my life savings in, that job will be around 01:59:36.770 --> 01:59:43.770 forever". I'm sorry to tell you that is merely wishful thinking, and yes your job 01:59:44.070 --> 01:59:51.070 is vulnerable; even if not directly threatened by atomisation; we are all affected by the 01:59:53.380 --> 01:59:53.630 mechanisms of causation. 01:59:53.380 --> 01:59:59.639 When a store fails the products on those shelves thus manufacturing is affected, just as when 01:59:59.639 --> 02:00:06.639 a product becomes obsolete, the stores in turn suffer. Also, when 50% of household products 02:00:07.270 --> 02:00:12.810 are either redundant or freely downloadable, what do you think will happen to the world 02:00:12.810 --> 02:00:18.079 of advertising? Autonomous cars eliminate the need for a driving licences thus the need 02:00:18.079 --> 02:00:24.329 for driving schools and instructors, and since accidents are near impossible, there will 02:00:24.329 --> 02:00:30.449 be a reduction in time with car insurance companies, repair shops and of course, taxable 02:00:30.449 --> 02:00:37.449 offenses relating to speeding fines and the like. And as the overall state of the economy 02:00:37.500 --> 02:00:43.380 weakens, commercial banks, real estate and government funded institutions such as education 02:00:43.380 --> 02:00:45.949 and healthcare all be affected. 02:00:45.949 --> 02:00:52.949 If by now you are asking "what's the real solution to the unemployment problem?" Well 02:00:54.270 --> 02:01:00.780 my question is what's the problem? The loss of a job is historically synonymous with degradation 02:01:00.780 --> 02:01:06.690 and poverty. Yet we are looking at a future in which organic food and clean energy are 02:01:06.690 --> 02:01:12.440 cultivated with levels of abundance never before seen. Homes can be constructed within 02:01:12.440 --> 02:01:19.440 a day without any human involvement. All tools, aesthetic objects and even medicine are designed, 02:01:20.000 --> 02:01:26.320 downloaded, customized and printed on demand, either made from in your in the home or delivered 02:01:26.320 --> 02:01:32.790 via autonomous vehicles, which have improved road safety and reduced travel time. Then 02:01:32.790 --> 02:01:38.239 of course there's better healthcare, free education, less waste and this is all to say 02:01:38.239 --> 02:01:45.239 nothing of the explosion in entertainment. The real solution would have nothing to do 02:01:45.940 --> 02:01:51.860 with capitalism, socialism, communism, the free enterprise system or any other sub related 02:01:51.860 --> 02:01:58.860 group. For these are market economies. And as the financial market dies, we need to transition 02:01:59.460 --> 02:02:05.920 into a new sustainable economy, one which is designed around ensuring our survival, 02:02:05.920 --> 02:02:12.000 meaning we must all have equal access to life supporting needs without the ridiculous number 02:02:12.000 --> 02:02:18.610 game or any monetary exchange. We have the technology and the understanding 02:02:18.610 --> 02:02:25.610 today of how to scientifically orient our resource distribution. But of course transitions 02:02:26.630 --> 02:02:33.630 are never easy. There is nothing preventing a period of mass poverty and starvation. In 02:02:34.679 --> 02:02:40.500 fact there is nothing preventing us from holding on to this out-dated, competition based, infinite 02:02:40.500 --> 02:02:44.010 growth market economy, until we have nothing left. 02:02:44.010 --> 02:02:50.280 By raising awareness of our technological potential and having the population understand 02:02:50.280 --> 02:02:56.849 the imminent need to transition, we can alleviate the fear usually generated through ignorance 02:02:56.849 --> 02:03:03.349 and allow the change to happen with little opposition. Luckily for us, I don't have 02:03:03.349 --> 02:03:10.349 to sit here and propose setting up a mass awareness raising campaign, it already exists. 02:03:10.989 --> 02:03:16.060 With over half a million members and hundreds of chapter's world-wide the zeitgeist movement 02:03:16.060 --> 02:03:21.420 is the largest grassroots movement in history, and has set out to raise awareness as to our 02:03:21.420 --> 02:03:27.179 true potential on this planet while at the same time advocating a transition in to a 02:03:27.179 --> 02:03:29.790 new sustainable global paradigm.