0:00:00.800,0:00:03.136 I'm going to talk[br]about the strategizing brain. 0:00:03.160,0:00:05.536 We're going to use[br]an unusual combination of tools 0:00:05.560,0:00:07.176 from game theory and neuroscience 0:00:07.200,0:00:10.456 to understand how people interact socially[br]when value is on the line. 0:00:10.480,0:00:14.016 So game theory is a branch[br]of, originally, applied mathematics, 0:00:14.040,0:00:16.256 used mostly in economics[br]and political science, 0:00:16.280,0:00:17.536 a little bit in biology, 0:00:17.560,0:00:20.336 that gives us a mathematical[br]taxonomy of social life 0:00:20.360,0:00:22.656 and it predicts[br]what people are likely to do 0:00:22.680,0:00:23.976 and believe others will do 0:00:24.000,0:00:27.016 in cases where everyone's actions[br]affect everyone else. 0:00:27.040,0:00:30.696 That's a lot of things:[br]competition, cooperation, bargaining, 0:00:30.720,0:00:33.280 games like hide-and-seek and poker. 0:00:33.920,0:00:35.856 Here's a simple game to get us started. 0:00:35.880,0:00:38.296 Everyone chooses a number[br]from zero to 100, 0:00:38.320,0:00:40.776 we're going to compute[br]the average of those numbers, 0:00:40.800,0:00:44.816 and whoever's closest to two-thirds[br]of the average wins a fixed prize. 0:00:44.840,0:00:47.616 So you want to be[br]a little bit below the average number, 0:00:47.640,0:00:48.896 but not too far below, 0:00:48.920,0:00:50.336 and everyone else wants to be 0:00:50.360,0:00:52.536 a little bit below[br]the average number as well. 0:00:52.560,0:00:54.136 Think about what you might pick. 0:00:54.160,0:00:55.376 As you're thinking, 0:00:55.400,0:00:58.456 this is a toy model of something[br]like selling in the stock market 0:00:58.480,0:00:59.936 during a rising market. Right? 0:00:59.960,0:01:02.656 You don't want to sell too early[br]and miss out on profits, 0:01:02.680,0:01:04.376 but you don't want to wait too late 0:01:04.400,0:01:06.639 to when everyone else sells,[br]triggering a crash. 0:01:06.663,0:01:09.159 You want to be a little bit[br]ahead of the competition, 0:01:09.183,0:01:10.376 but not too far ahead. 0:01:10.400,0:01:13.416 OK, here's two theories[br]about how people might think about this, 0:01:13.440,0:01:14.656 then we'll see some data. 0:01:14.680,0:01:16.296 Some of these will sound familiar 0:01:16.320,0:01:18.376 because you probably[br]are thinking that way. 0:01:18.400,0:01:20.000 I'm using my brain theory to see. 0:01:20.720,0:01:24.136 A lot of people say, "I really don't know[br]what people are going to pick, 0:01:24.160,0:01:25.856 so I think the average will be 50." 0:01:25.880,0:01:27.896 They're not being really strategic at all. 0:01:27.920,0:01:30.936 "And I'll pick two-thirds of 50.[br]That's 33." That's a start. 0:01:30.960,0:01:33.296 Other people who are[br]a little more sophisticated, 0:01:33.320,0:01:34.616 using more working memory, 0:01:34.640,0:01:36.256 say, "I think people will pick 33 0:01:36.280,0:01:38.496 because they're going to pick[br]a response to 50, 0:01:38.520,0:01:40.856 and so I'll pick 22,[br]which is two-thirds of 33." 0:01:40.880,0:01:43.816 They're doing one extra step[br]of thinking, two steps. 0:01:43.840,0:01:45.016 That's better. 0:01:45.040,0:01:47.776 And in principle,[br]you could do three, four or more, 0:01:47.800,0:01:49.736 but it starts to get very difficult. 0:01:49.760,0:01:51.696 Just like in language and other domains, 0:01:51.720,0:01:54.576 we know it's hard for people[br]to parse very complex sentences 0:01:54.600,0:01:55.936 with a recursive structure. 0:01:55.960,0:01:58.136 This is called the cognitive[br]hierarchy theory. 0:01:58.160,0:02:00.896 It's something that I've worked on[br]and a few other people, 0:02:00.920,0:02:03.576 and it indicates a hierarchy[br]along with some assumptions 0:02:03.600,0:02:05.736 about how many people[br]stop at different steps 0:02:05.760,0:02:09.295 and how the steps of thinking are affected[br]by lots of interesting variables 0:02:09.320,0:02:11.456 and variant people,[br]as we'll see in a minute. 0:02:11.480,0:02:14.656 A very different theory,[br]a much more popular one, and an older one, 0:02:14.680,0:02:17.176 due largely to John Nash[br]of "A Beautiful Mind" fame, 0:02:17.200,0:02:19.376 is what's called equilibrium analysis. 0:02:19.400,0:02:22.136 So if you've ever taken[br]a game theory course at any level, 0:02:22.160,0:02:24.336 you will have learned[br]a little bit about this. 0:02:24.360,0:02:26.216 An equilibrium is a mathematical state 0:02:26.240,0:02:29.576 in which everybody has figured out[br]exactly what everyone else will do. 0:02:29.600,0:02:30.976 It is a very useful concept, 0:02:31.000,0:02:33.776 but behaviorally, it may not[br]exactly explain what people do 0:02:33.800,0:02:36.336 the first time they play[br]these types of economic games 0:02:36.360,0:02:38.216 or in situations in the outside world. 0:02:38.240,0:02:41.016 In this case, the equilibrium[br]makes a very bold prediction, 0:02:41.040,0:02:43.416 which is everyone wants[br]to be below everyone else, 0:02:43.440,0:02:45.000 therefore they'll play zero. 0:02:45.680,0:02:46.896 Let's see what happens. 0:02:46.920,0:02:49.056 This experiment's been done[br]many, many times. 0:02:49.080,0:02:51.296 Some of the earliest ones[br]were done in the '90s 0:02:51.320,0:02:53.136 by me and Rosemarie Nagel and others. 0:02:53.160,0:02:55.616 This is a beautiful data set[br]of 9,000 people 0:02:55.640,0:02:58.816 who wrote in to three newspapers[br]and magazines that had a contest. 0:02:58.840,0:03:00.856 The contest said, send in your numbers 0:03:00.880,0:03:04.296 and whoever is closer to two-thirds[br]of the average will win a big prize. 0:03:04.320,0:03:06.496 And as you can see,[br]there's so much data here, 0:03:06.520,0:03:08.256 you can see the spikes very visibly. 0:03:08.280,0:03:10.896 There's a spike at 33.[br]Those are people doing one step. 0:03:10.920,0:03:12.936 There is another spike visible at 22. 0:03:12.960,0:03:15.816 And notice that most people[br]pick numbers right around there. 0:03:15.840,0:03:18.016 They don't necessarily pick[br]exactly 33 and 22. 0:03:18.040,0:03:20.256 There's something[br]a little bit noisy around it. 0:03:20.280,0:03:21.696 But you can see those spikes. 0:03:21.720,0:03:23.256 There's another group of people 0:03:23.280,0:03:25.776 who seem to have[br]a firm grip on equilibrium analysis, 0:03:25.800,0:03:27.536 because they're picking zero or one. 0:03:27.560,0:03:29.576 But they lose, right? 0:03:29.600,0:03:32.896 Because picking a number that low[br]is actually a bad choice 0:03:32.920,0:03:35.656 if other people aren't[br]doing equilibrium analysis as well. 0:03:35.680,0:03:37.096 So they're smart, but poor. 0:03:37.120,0:03:39.496 (Laughter) 0:03:39.520,0:03:42.056 Where are these things[br]happening in the brain? 0:03:42.080,0:03:45.736 One study by Coricelli and Nagel[br]gives a really sharp, interesting answer. 0:03:45.760,0:03:49.536 So they had people play this game[br]while they were being scanned in an fMRI, 0:03:49.560,0:03:51.816 and two conditions:[br]in some trials, they're told 0:03:51.840,0:03:54.336 you're playing another person[br]who's playing right now 0:03:54.360,0:03:57.456 and we're going to match up your behavior[br]and pay you if you win. 0:03:57.480,0:04:00.376 In the other trials, they're told,[br]you're playing a computer. 0:04:00.400,0:04:01.936 They're just choosing randomly. 0:04:01.960,0:04:04.136 So what you see[br]here is a subtraction of areas 0:04:04.160,0:04:07.136 in which there's more brain activity[br]when you're playing people 0:04:07.160,0:04:08.776 compared to playing the computer. 0:04:08.800,0:04:11.336 And you see activity[br]in some regions we've seen today, 0:04:11.360,0:04:13.696 medial prefrontal cortex,[br]dorsomedial, up here, 0:04:13.720,0:04:16.136 ventromedial prefrontal cortex,[br]anterior cingulate, 0:04:16.160,0:04:19.176 an area that's involved[br]in lots of types of conflict resolution, 0:04:19.200,0:04:21.055 like if you're playing "Simon Says," 0:04:21.079,0:04:24.256 and also the right and left[br]temporoparietal junction. 0:04:24.280,0:04:26.896 And these are all areas[br]which are fairly reliably known 0:04:26.920,0:04:29.536 to be part of what's called[br]a "theory of mind" circuit, 0:04:29.560,0:04:30.816 or "mentalizing circuit." 0:04:30.840,0:04:34.336 That is, it's a circuit that's used[br]to imagine what other people might do. 0:04:34.360,0:04:36.776 So these were some[br]of the first studies to see this 0:04:36.800,0:04:38.000 tied in to game theory. 0:04:38.720,0:04:40.976 What happens with these[br]one- and two-step types? 0:04:41.000,0:04:43.216 So we classify people by what they picked 0:04:43.240,0:04:47.176 and then we look at the difference between[br]playing humans versus playing computers, 0:04:47.200,0:04:49.296 which brain areas[br]are differentially active. 0:04:49.320,0:04:52.256 On the top you see the one-step players.[br]Almost no difference. 0:04:52.280,0:04:55.496 They're treating other people[br]like a computer, and the brain is too. 0:04:55.520,0:04:58.656 The bottom players, you see[br]all the activity in dorsomedial PFC. 0:04:58.680,0:05:01.416 So those two-step players[br]are doing something differently. 0:05:01.440,0:05:03.976 You could say, "What can we do[br]with this information?" 0:05:04.000,0:05:05.496 You might be able to say, 0:05:05.520,0:05:07.776 "This person's going to be[br]a good poker player," 0:05:07.800,0:05:09.496 or, "This person's socially naive," 0:05:09.520,0:05:11.473 and we might also be able to study things 0:05:11.497,0:05:13.296 like development of adolescent brains 0:05:13.320,0:05:15.776 once we have an idea[br]of where this circuitry exists. 0:05:15.800,0:05:17.896 OK. Get ready. 0:05:17.920,0:05:19.936 I'm saving you some brain activity, 0:05:19.960,0:05:22.696 because you don't need[br]to use your hair detector cells. 0:05:22.720,0:05:25.976 You should use those cells[br]to think carefully about this game. 0:05:26.000,0:05:27.496 This is a bargaining game. 0:05:27.520,0:05:30.536 Two players who are being scanned[br]using EEG electrodes 0:05:30.560,0:05:33.336 are going to bargain[br]over one to six dollars. 0:05:33.360,0:05:36.896 If they can do it in 10 seconds,[br]they're going to actually earn that money. 0:05:36.920,0:05:38.976 If they don't make a deal,[br]they get nothing. 0:05:39.000,0:05:40.616 That's a mistake together. 0:05:40.640,0:05:43.456 The twist is that one player, on the left, 0:05:43.480,0:05:45.856 is informed about how much[br]on each trial there is. 0:05:45.880,0:05:48.616 They play lots of trials[br]with different amounts each time. 0:05:48.640,0:05:50.776 In this case, they know[br]there's four dollars. 0:05:50.800,0:05:54.416 The uninformed player doesn't know,[br]but they know the informed player knows. 0:05:54.440,0:05:56.656 So the uninformed player's[br]challenge is to say, 0:05:56.680,0:05:59.936 "Is this guy really being fair[br]or are they giving me a very low offer 0:05:59.960,0:06:01.296 in order to get me to think 0:06:01.320,0:06:04.016 that there's only one[br]or two dollars available to split?" 0:06:04.040,0:06:06.776 In which case they might reject it[br]and not come to a deal. 0:06:06.800,0:06:09.656 So there's some tension[br]between trying to get the most money 0:06:09.680,0:06:12.376 but trying to goad the other player[br]into giving you more. 0:06:12.400,0:06:14.896 And the way they bargain[br]is to point on a number line 0:06:14.920,0:06:16.616 that goes from zero to six dollars, 0:06:16.640,0:06:19.656 and they're bargaining[br]over how much the uninformed player gets, 0:06:19.680,0:06:21.496 and the informed player gets the rest. 0:06:21.520,0:06:23.696 So this is like[br]a management-labor negotiation 0:06:23.720,0:06:25.216 in which the workers don't know 0:06:25.240,0:06:28.216 how much profits[br]the privately held company has, 0:06:28.240,0:06:30.776 and they want to maybe[br]hold out for more money, 0:06:30.800,0:06:33.216 but the company might want[br]to create the impression 0:06:33.240,0:06:36.416 that there's little to split:[br]"I'm giving you the most that I can." 0:06:36.440,0:06:37.696 First some behavior. 0:06:37.720,0:06:40.096 So a bunch of the subject pairs[br]play face to face. 0:06:40.120,0:06:42.576 We have other data[br]where they play across computers. 0:06:42.600,0:06:44.216 That's an interesting difference. 0:06:44.240,0:06:46.056 But a bunch of the face-to-face pairs 0:06:46.080,0:06:48.480 agree to divide the money evenly[br]every single time. 0:06:49.200,0:06:52.216 Boring. It's just[br]not interesting neurally. 0:06:52.240,0:06:54.456 It's good for them.[br]They make a lot of money. 0:06:54.480,0:06:55.976 But we're interested in, 0:06:56.000,0:06:59.360 can we say something about when[br]disagreements occur versus don't occur? 0:06:59.880,0:07:02.616 So this is the other group of subjects[br]who often disagree. 0:07:02.640,0:07:03.976 So they have a chance of -- 0:07:04.000,0:07:06.456 they bicker and disagree[br]and end up with less money. 0:07:06.480,0:07:09.440 They might be eligible[br]to be on "Real Housewives," the TV show. 0:07:10.240,0:07:11.896 You see on the left, 0:07:11.920,0:07:14.536 when the amount to divide[br]is one, two or three dollars, 0:07:14.560,0:07:16.216 they disagree about half the time, 0:07:16.240,0:07:19.216 and when the amount is four, five, six,[br]they agree quite often. 0:07:19.240,0:07:21.456 This turns out to be[br]something that's predicted 0:07:21.480,0:07:23.433 by a very complicated type of game theory 0:07:23.457,0:07:26.376 you should come to graduate school[br]at CalTech and learn about. 0:07:26.400,0:07:28.816 It's a little too complicated[br]to explain right now, 0:07:28.840,0:07:31.776 but the theory tells you[br]that this shape kind of should occur. 0:07:31.800,0:07:33.696 Your intuition might tell you that too. 0:07:33.720,0:07:36.216 Now I'll show you[br]the results from the EEG recording. 0:07:36.240,0:07:39.496 Very complicated. The right brain[br]schematic is the uninformed person, 0:07:39.520,0:07:40.936 and the left is the informed. 0:07:40.960,0:07:43.736 Remember that we scanned[br]both brains at the same time, 0:07:43.760,0:07:46.056 so we can ask about time-synced activity 0:07:46.080,0:07:49.096 in similar or different[br]areas simultaneously, 0:07:49.120,0:07:51.336 just like if you wanted[br]to study a conversation 0:07:51.360,0:07:53.936 and you were scanning[br]two people talking to each other 0:07:53.960,0:07:56.416 and you'd expect common activity[br]in language regions 0:07:56.440,0:07:58.816 when they're actually[br]listening and communicating. 0:07:58.840,0:08:02.096 So the arrows connect regions[br]that are active at the same time, 0:08:02.120,0:08:03.936 and the direction of the arrows flows 0:08:03.960,0:08:06.256 from the region[br]that's active first in time, 0:08:06.280,0:08:10.056 and the arrowhead goes[br]to the region that's active later. 0:08:10.080,0:08:12.136 So in this case, if you look carefully, 0:08:12.160,0:08:14.176 most of the arrows[br]flow from right to left. 0:08:14.200,0:08:19.136 That is, it looks as if the uninformed[br]brain activity is happening first 0:08:19.160,0:08:23.016 and then it's followed[br]by activity in the informed brain. 0:08:23.040,0:08:26.456 And by the way, these were trials[br]where their deals were made. 0:08:26.480,0:08:28.256 This is from the first two seconds. 0:08:28.280,0:08:31.376 We haven't finished analyzing this data,[br]we're still peeking in, 0:08:31.400,0:08:34.816 but the hope is that we can say[br]something in the first couple of seconds 0:08:34.840,0:08:36.816 about whether they'll make a deal or not, 0:08:36.840,0:08:38.976 which could be useful[br]in avoiding litigation, 0:08:39.000,0:08:40.696 ugly divorces and things like that. 0:08:40.720,0:08:41.936 Those are all cases 0:08:41.960,0:08:45.200 in which a lot of value[br]is lost by delay and strikes. 0:08:46.560,0:08:48.736 Here's the case[br]where the disagreements occur. 0:08:48.760,0:08:51.176 You can see it looks different[br]than the one before. 0:08:51.200,0:08:52.536 There's a lot more arrows. 0:08:52.560,0:08:54.496 That means that the brains are synced up 0:08:54.520,0:08:56.776 more closely in terms[br]of simultaneous activity, 0:08:56.800,0:08:59.016 and the arrows flow clearly[br]from left to right. 0:08:59.040,0:09:01.376 That is, the informed brain[br]seems to be deciding, 0:09:01.400,0:09:03.616 "We're probably[br]not going to make a deal here." 0:09:03.640,0:09:06.280 And then later there's activity[br]in the uninformed brain. 0:09:06.800,0:09:09.176 Next I'm going to introduce you[br]to some relatives. 0:09:09.200,0:09:11.336 They're hairy, smelly, fast and strong. 0:09:11.360,0:09:13.856 You might be thinking back[br]to your last Thanksgiving. 0:09:13.880,0:09:14.896 (Laughter) 0:09:14.920,0:09:17.336 Maybe if you had a chimpanzee with you. 0:09:17.360,0:09:21.296 Charles Darwin and I and you broke off[br]from the family tree, from chimpanzees, 0:09:21.320,0:09:22.896 about five million years ago. 0:09:22.920,0:09:24.776 They're still our closest genetic kin. 0:09:24.800,0:09:26.496 We share 98.8 percent of the genes. 0:09:26.520,0:09:29.376 We share more genes with them[br]than zebras do with horses. 0:09:29.400,0:09:31.296 And we're also their closest cousin. 0:09:31.320,0:09:34.016 They have more genetic relation[br]to us than to gorillas. 0:09:34.040,0:09:36.696 So how humans and chimpanzees[br]behave differently 0:09:36.720,0:09:38.760 might tell us a lot about brain evolution. 0:09:39.320,0:09:41.696 So this is an amazing memory test 0:09:41.720,0:09:44.456 from Nagoya, Japan,[br]Primate Research Institute, 0:09:44.480,0:09:46.496 where they've done a lot of this research. 0:09:46.520,0:09:47.896 This goes back quite a ways. 0:09:47.920,0:09:49.736 They're interested in working memory. 0:09:49.760,0:09:52.616 The chimp is going to see[br]200 milliseconds' exposure -- 0:09:52.640,0:09:54.696 that's fast, that's eight movie frames -- 0:09:54.720,0:09:56.616 of numbers one, two, three, four, five. 0:09:56.640,0:09:59.096 Then they disappear[br]and they're replaced by squares, 0:09:59.120,0:10:00.776 and they have to press the squares 0:10:00.800,0:10:04.176 that correspond to the numbers[br]from low to high to get an apple reward. 0:10:04.200,0:10:05.600 Let's see how they can do it. 0:10:16.400,0:10:17.656 This is a young chimp. 0:10:17.680,0:10:20.776 The young ones are better[br]than the old ones, just like humans. 0:10:20.800,0:10:22.336 And they're highly experienced, 0:10:22.360,0:10:24.856 so they've done this[br]thousands and thousands of time. 0:10:24.880,0:10:27.896 Obviously there's a big training effect,[br]as you can imagine. 0:10:27.920,0:10:29.416 (Laughter) 0:10:29.440,0:10:32.016 You can see they're very blasé[br]and kind of effortless. 0:10:32.040,0:10:35.256 Not only can they do it very well,[br]they do it in a sort of lazy way. 0:10:35.280,0:10:37.096 Who thinks you could beat the chimps? 0:10:37.120,0:10:38.536 (Laughter) 0:10:38.560,0:10:39.776 Wrong. 0:10:39.800,0:10:40.816 (Laughter) 0:10:40.840,0:10:42.816 We can try. Maybe we'll try. 0:10:42.840,0:10:46.856 OK, so the next part of this study[br]I'm going to go quickly through 0:10:46.880,0:10:49.816 is based on an idea of Tetsuro Matsuzawa. 0:10:49.840,0:10:51.096 He had a bold idea -- 0:10:51.120,0:10:53.496 what he called the cognitive[br]trade-off hypothesis. 0:10:53.520,0:10:57.256 We know chimps are faster and stronger.[br]They're also very obsessed with status. 0:10:57.280,0:11:00.016 His thought was, maybe[br]they've preserved brain activities, 0:11:00.040,0:11:01.896 and they practice them in development, 0:11:01.920,0:11:04.976 that are really important to them[br]to negotiate status and to win, 0:11:05.000,0:11:07.936 which is something like strategic thinking[br]during competition. 0:11:07.960,0:11:11.896 So we're going to check that out[br]by having the chimps actually play a game 0:11:11.920,0:11:14.416 by touching two touch screens. 0:11:14.440,0:11:17.496 The chimps are interacting[br]with each other through the computers. 0:11:17.520,0:11:20.736 They're going to press left or right.[br]One chimp is called a matcher. 0:11:20.760,0:11:22.416 They win if they press left, left, 0:11:22.440,0:11:25.536 like a seeker finding someone[br]in hide-and-seek, or right, right. 0:11:25.560,0:11:27.176 The mismatcher wants to mismatch. 0:11:27.200,0:11:29.896 They want to press[br]the opposite screen of the chimp. 0:11:29.920,0:11:31.800 And the rewards are apple cube rewards. 0:11:32.400,0:11:34.736 So here's how game theorists[br]look at these data. 0:11:34.760,0:11:39.016 This is a graph of the percentage of times[br]the matcher picked right on the x-axis, 0:11:39.040,0:11:41.296 and the percentage of times[br]they predicted right 0:11:41.320,0:11:43.416 by the mismatcher on the y-axis. 0:11:43.440,0:11:46.776 So a point here is the behavior[br]by a pair of players, 0:11:46.800,0:11:49.016 one trying to match,[br]one trying to mismatch. 0:11:49.040,0:11:52.376 The NE square in the middle --[br]actually NE, CH and QRE -- 0:11:52.400,0:11:55.656 those are three different theories[br]of Nash equilibrium, and others -- 0:11:55.680,0:11:57.376 tells you what the theory predicts, 0:11:57.400,0:11:59.376 which is that they should match 50-50, 0:11:59.400,0:12:01.696 because if you play[br]left too much, for example, 0:12:01.720,0:12:04.776 I can exploit that if I'm the mismatcher[br]by then playing right. 0:12:04.800,0:12:07.776 And as you can see, the chimps --[br]each chimp is one triangle -- 0:12:07.800,0:12:10.240 are circled around,[br]hovering around that prediction. 0:12:11.120,0:12:12.856 Now we move the payoffs. 0:12:12.880,0:12:15.976 We're going to make the left, left payoff[br]for the matcher higher. 0:12:16.000,0:12:17.496 Now they get three apple cubes. 0:12:17.520,0:12:20.776 Game theoretically, that should[br]make the mismatcher's behavior shift, 0:12:20.800,0:12:22.456 because the mismatcher will think, 0:12:22.480,0:12:24.480 this guy's going to go for the big reward, 0:12:24.504,0:12:27.376 so I'm going to go to the right,[br]make sure he doesn't get it. 0:12:27.400,0:12:28.736 And their behavior moves up 0:12:28.760,0:12:32.056 in the direction of this change[br]in the Nash equilibrium. 0:12:32.080,0:12:34.296 Finally, we changed[br]the payoffs one more time. 0:12:34.320,0:12:35.576 Now it's four apple cubes, 0:12:35.600,0:12:38.456 and their behavior again[br]moves towards the Nash equilibrium. 0:12:38.480,0:12:41.176 It's sprinkled around,[br]but if you average the chimps out, 0:12:41.200,0:12:42.816 they're really close, within .01. 0:12:42.840,0:12:45.496 They're actually closer[br]than any species we've observed. 0:12:45.520,0:12:46.736 What about humans? 0:12:46.760,0:12:48.800 You think you're smarter[br]than a chimpanzee? 0:12:49.320,0:12:51.920 Here's two human groups in green and blue. 0:12:52.600,0:12:53.816 They're closer to 50-50. 0:12:53.840,0:12:55.976 They're not responding[br]to payoffs as closely, 0:12:56.000,0:12:57.576 and if you study their learning, 0:12:57.600,0:12:59.736 they aren't as sensitive[br]to previous rewards. 0:12:59.760,0:13:01.936 The chimps are playing better[br]than the humans, 0:13:01.960,0:13:03.896 in the sense of adhering to game theory. 0:13:03.920,0:13:06.896 These are two different groups[br]of humans from Japan and Africa. 0:13:06.920,0:13:08.296 They replicate quite nicely. 0:13:08.320,0:13:10.536 None of them are close[br]to where the chimps are. 0:13:10.560,0:13:12.696 OK, so here are some things[br]we learned today. 0:13:12.720,0:13:15.376 People seem to do a limited[br]amount of strategic thinking 0:13:15.400,0:13:16.656 using theory of mind. 0:13:16.680,0:13:18.496 We have some evidence from bargaining 0:13:18.520,0:13:21.456 that early warning signs in the brain[br]might be used to predict 0:13:21.480,0:13:24.216 whether there will be[br]a bad disagreement that costs money, 0:13:24.240,0:13:26.416 and chimps are better[br]competitors than humans, 0:13:26.440,0:13:27.656 as judged by game theory. 0:13:27.680,0:13:28.896 Thank you. 0:13:28.920,0:13:32.480 (Applause)