WEBVTT 00:00:23.239 --> 00:00:26.158 It will be a short delay until I figure out what the hell am I doing. 00:00:27.880 --> 00:00:30.162 Oh wait, there will be ??? 00:00:32.150 --> 00:00:34.042 - We've got time. 00:00:37.544 --> 00:00:39.566 - Do we? 00:01:02.418 --> 00:01:16.451 "More than any other time in history, mankind faces a crossroad. One path leads to despair and utter hopelessness. The other, to total extinction. Let us pray we have the wisdom to choose correctly." - Woody Allen 00:01:17.097 --> 00:01:19.756 - He was kidding. 00:01:20.925 --> 00:01:22.911 I'm not. 00:01:23.791 --> 00:01:27.331 It looks like we did not choose correctly. 00:01:30.550 --> 00:01:32.017 After all, 00:01:32.126 --> 00:01:38.602 there have been no humans on Earth when the global average temperature was 3,5°C above baseline. 00:01:39.580 --> 00:01:44.454 2 million years of human experience, all less than 3,5°C above baseline; 00:01:44.573 --> 00:01:48.042 baseline being the beginning of Industrial Revolution. 00:01:48.648 --> 00:01:53.402 We are headed for more than 3,5°C above baseline, in the near future. 00:01:53.567 --> 00:01:57.040 Human extinction will not resolve because we are not clever. 00:01:57.230 --> 00:02:00.768 It's not as if we can't handle temperature swings; 00:02:00.938 --> 00:02:04.426 you came from outside, inside is way more than 3,5°C, 00:02:04.576 --> 00:02:07.547 it's closer than 10°C or 15°C, that's not the issue. 00:02:08.619 --> 00:02:13.620 The issue is habitat. We´re human animals, as with all other animals, 00:02:13.692 --> 00:02:17.673 we need habitat to survive and that habitat has to include food. 00:02:17.852 --> 00:02:21.893 And it's difficult for me to imagine a world in which we'll have food, 00:02:22.111 --> 00:02:26.350 for humans, at say 3,5 or 4°C above baseline. 00:02:26.573 --> 00:02:33.000 Especially in the relatively near future that will bring us that 3,5°C or 4°C. 00:02:33.891 --> 00:02:38.619 John Davis, writes at the Arctic Methane Emergency Group, last September concluded, 00:02:38.829 --> 00:02:44.495 based only on CO2 in the atmosphere: "The world is probably at the start of a runaway Greenhouse Event 00:02:44.655 --> 00:02:48.141 which will end most human life on Earth before 2040." 00:02:48.294 --> 00:02:54.848 He is only contemplating one greenhouse gas, Carbon Dioxide (CO2). 00:02:55.028 --> 00:02:59.355 And, as reported by NASA a couple of days ago, 00:02:59.525 --> 00:03:05.069 we're at carbon dioxide levels that are likely higher than they've been for the last 20 million years. 00:03:05.289 --> 00:03:08.020 For 2 million years there has been humans on the planet. 00:03:08.180 --> 00:03:11.824 We're at nearly 400 ppm of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. 00:03:12.024 --> 00:03:16.911 In the beginning of the Industrial Revolution we were at 280 ppm (parts per million). 00:03:17.321 --> 00:03:22.384 So, this is a huge change in atmospheric chemistry. 00:03:24.770 --> 00:03:28.408 If we input some of the self-reinforcing feedback loops, 00:03:28.558 --> 00:03:34.404 associated with the so far 0.85°C rise in temperature, 00:03:35.004 --> 00:03:39.601 instead of as John Davis did, which is to ignore those and focus only on carbon dioxide, 00:03:39.751 --> 00:03:44.368 if we include some of those feedbacks, according to Paul Beckwith, climate scientist at the University of Otawa, 00:03:44.528 --> 00:03:49.560 we are headed to 6°C within a decade. 6°C from the current level. 00:03:51.450 --> 00:03:55.566 About a year later, back with double down... ok double and a half, 00:03:55.796 --> 00:04:00.899 he said that we can expect up to 16°C increase within a decade or two. 00:04:01.049 --> 00:04:08.756 And he is basing these projections on paleoclimatic information. 00:04:09.106 --> 00:04:11.415 So, for example, 00:04:11.685 --> 00:04:16.535 according to Science, one of the more reputable journals in the scientific community, 00:04:16.730 --> 00:04:22.797 climate change is on track to it for 10 times faster than at any time during the last 65 million years. 00:04:23.097 --> 00:04:26.901 Within that 65 million years is an event 55 million years ago, 00:04:27.061 --> 00:04:32.625 which is a 5°C rise within 13 years, global average. 00:04:32.765 --> 00:04:37.484 10 times faster than that is 50°C rise in 13 years; 00:04:37.664 --> 00:04:40.533 or maybe a 5°C in 1,3 years; 00:04:40.763 --> 00:04:44.764 either is enough to remove habitat for all humans on the planet. 00:04:47.416 --> 00:04:50.862 It's happening, and a lot faster than most people think. 00:04:51.084 --> 00:04:55.287 A little bit more evidence, according to a paper on the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 00:04:55.467 --> 00:04:59.211 as one of the premier journals in the world on science, 00:04:59.401 --> 00:05:02.063 from 5 years ago, 00:05:02.381 --> 00:05:09.036 we will remain at or above the current carbon dioxide (CO2) level for at least the next thousand years. 00:05:09.299 --> 00:05:16.501 We are at 396ppm of CO2 right now and we will be, at a minimum, with 396ppm for at least the next 1000 years. 00:05:16.692 --> 00:05:19.661 Contrast that with the message of 350.org 00:05:19.821 --> 00:05:24.498 which indicates we will get down to 350ppm if we just use a civilised approach to it by mid century; 00:05:24.647 --> 00:05:29.753 the middle of this century. That's not gonna happen, it can't happen, it's physically impossible. 00:05:29.912 --> 00:05:32.892 But 350.org is not gonna tell you that. 00:05:35.438 --> 00:05:38.286 According to the UN Environment Programme, during 2008, 00:05:38.456 --> 00:05:42.701 it was the dire year of the Great Recession, remember when we started calling them "recessions", 00:05:42.861 --> 00:05:46.483 because the Prozac Nation can't handle the word "depression"? 00:05:46.652 --> 00:05:50.599 I mean, it was a Great depression, wasn't it? At least for me, I don't know about you? 00:05:50.750 --> 00:05:52.635 It was... awesome! 00:05:53.330 --> 00:06:00.423 At any event, it was in that catastrophic year of the Great Recession, that the global CO2 emissions actually increased 00:06:00.543 --> 00:06:05.725 to their highest level since we enacted the Clean Air Act in this country, in 1980. 00:06:05.885 --> 00:06:08.519 But that was nothing compared to 2009, 00:06:08.689 --> 00:06:12.109 when carbon emissions increased to a new record setting level. 00:06:12.299 --> 00:06:16.201 And in 2010, when they exceeded that previous record setting level, 00:06:16.371 --> 00:06:21.328 likewise for 2010, 2011 and 2012, and we just found out about 2013, 00:06:21.488 --> 00:06:26.226 every year, every single year, we set new records for greenhouse gas emissions, 00:06:26.366 --> 00:06:31.562 and we are at the midst of a global economic recession, at best. 00:06:32.372 --> 00:06:36.658 It's clear, at this point, that civilization is a heat engine. 00:06:36.818 --> 00:06:40.880 And from a great paper by Timothy Garrett in climatic change, 00:06:41.100 --> 00:06:44.083 "Only a complete collapse prevents runaway climate change." 00:06:44.233 --> 00:06:49.016 We have know this for years. And by "collapse", what Garrett means is 00:06:49.206 --> 00:06:54.877 no fuel at the filling stations, no food at the grocery stores, no water coming out of municipal taps. 00:06:55.057 --> 00:07:00.793 If we wanted to have habitat for humans, in the not too distant future, 00:07:02.098 --> 00:07:07.124 the understanding in 2009, when the paper was published, 00:07:07.314 --> 00:07:11.153 was that we needed to completely collapse industrial civilization. 00:07:11.348 --> 00:07:14.391 And I don't know anybody who sign up for that, by the way. 00:07:14.562 --> 00:07:19.139 And I can't imagine a politician running on that campaign. 00:07:19.805 --> 00:07:22.112 I can just see, 00:07:22.492 --> 00:07:25.539 two presidential candidates in debate: 00:07:25.839 --> 00:07:28.778 "No, I can collapse it faster than you can." 00:07:29.362 --> 00:07:33.177 "No, but I can have the lights out by a week after I'm elected." 00:07:33.682 --> 00:07:35.325 Right. 00:07:37.136 --> 00:07:41.651 According to a paper in the Astrophysical Journal - yes, even astrophysicists are talking about climate change - 00:07:41.823 --> 00:07:46.115 the Earth is within 1% of inhabitability. 00:07:47.449 --> 00:07:50.115 That's not very far. 00:07:50.305 --> 00:07:54.321 So, for the entire enterprise of astrophysicists, 00:07:54.521 --> 00:07:57.818 it was assumed that Earth was in the middle of the habitable zone. 00:07:57.948 --> 00:08:00.662 Here is the habitable zone for stars of different sizes. 00:08:00.822 --> 00:08:05.691 So, for a star of our size, the astrophysicists used to thought Earth was right there, 00:08:05.821 --> 00:08:10.903 in the middle of the habitable zone, for the entire discipline of astrophysics. 00:08:11.453 --> 00:08:13.927 But then, somebody actually looked, 00:08:14.117 --> 00:08:19.104 and discovered, last March, that actually Earth is in the inner edge of the habitable zone, 00:08:19.274 --> 00:08:22.757 within 1% of being uninhabitable. 00:08:22.927 --> 00:08:27.311 Mars is here, Venus is somewhere distant from Earth as Earth is form Mars; 00:08:27.461 --> 00:08:31.127 Venus is about right there, and we what happened to Venus´ atmosphere. 00:08:31.317 --> 00:08:33.169 It got striped away. 00:08:33.919 --> 00:08:36.233 What this suggests is that 00:08:36.383 --> 00:08:41.667 with minor changes in the Earth's atmosphere, we can go Venus. 00:08:42.617 --> 00:08:45.692 Well guess what! We haven't made minor changes in the Earth's atmosphere, 00:08:45.862 --> 00:08:48.286 we have done major changes in the Earth's atmosphere. 00:08:48.455 --> 00:08:54.423 We have gone from 280ppm to 400ppm, nearly 400ppm in CO2, in the atmosphere. 00:08:54.633 --> 00:08:58.353 That's one of a handful of greenhouse gases. Another one is methane. 00:08:58.513 --> 00:09:02.177 Methane was 700ppb before the beginning of the industrial revolution, 00:09:02.347 --> 00:09:06.225 it's now about 2000 parts per billion (ppb); nearly tripled... 00:09:06.357 --> 00:09:10.477 the level of methane, as we observed in the beginning of the Industrial Revolution. 00:09:10.677 --> 00:09:15.328 How bigger deal is methane, it's about 100 times more powerful greenhouse gas than carbon dioxide, 00:09:15.478 --> 00:09:19.410 molecule per molecule. 100 times in the short term, meaning less than 20 years. 00:09:19.580 --> 00:09:24.077 It's only about 20 times more powerful than CO2 over a 100 years or so but, 00:09:24.237 --> 00:09:26.770 we don't have 100 years or so. 00:09:29.547 --> 00:09:34.305 And finally, a little bit about that collapse, that Tim Garrett wrote about. 00:09:34.525 --> 00:09:37.451 Clive Hamilton points out in his latest book 00:09:37.667 --> 00:09:42.591 that without the atmospheric sulphates associated with industry, when collapse occurs, 00:09:42.771 --> 00:09:45.812 Earth will be an extra 1,1°C warmer. 00:09:45.982 --> 00:09:52.510 Add 1,1°C to the current 0,85°C and we're at 1,95°C, lets call it 2. 00:09:52.738 --> 00:09:55.797 Even collapse takes us to 2°C, 00:09:56.647 --> 00:09:59.372 the much dreaded political target. 00:10:01.644 --> 00:10:07.104 If the system doesn't collapse, we're at 2°C within a matter of years from now... 00:10:07.534 --> 00:10:11.996 If the system does collapse, we're at 2°C within 3 days. 00:10:14.784 --> 00:10:18.063 And they call us Homo sapiens, the wise ape. 00:10:20.122 --> 00:10:24.682 Think that it should have been homo cavitus which is the clever ape, instead. 00:10:26.166 --> 00:10:31.264 There's this contrarian myth that has been floating around since 1998, 00:10:31.434 --> 00:10:36.574 the hottest year of global average temperature based on land records, 00:10:36.804 --> 00:10:42.193 and the myth is that the climate change has slowed, has plateaued, 00:10:42.393 --> 00:10:45.587 that based on land surface records, 00:10:45.767 --> 00:10:52.261 we have seen a pause in climate warming, the Earth's warming, since 1998. 00:10:52.641 --> 00:10:56.276 And in fact, based on land records that's right, and so people wondered for a long time: 00:10:56.446 --> 00:11:00.067 "Where is that heat going?" As it turns out it is going to the ocean. 00:11:00.837 --> 00:11:07.159 We look at 1998 and that's where heating of the oceans accelerates. 00:11:09.121 --> 00:11:13.424 So, we figured out about a year ago where that extra heat is going. 00:11:13.594 --> 00:11:16.790 Is not going into land masses; it is going into the ocean. 00:11:16.960 --> 00:11:22.056 And finally, just less than a month ago, there's a paper which came out with an explanation of that. 00:11:22.246 --> 00:11:29.446 The general heating of the Earths surface has increased the winds over the ocean 00:11:29.630 --> 00:11:35.720 and that increased wind has allowed for more heat to be sunk deeper into the oceans, 00:11:35.910 --> 00:11:39.959 than was previously occurring. If we have an El Niño event, 00:11:40.129 --> 00:11:44.309 a bunch of that heat comes out quite suddenly in a short period of time. 00:11:44.548 --> 00:11:49.218 If we don't have an El Niño event, if we have a continuous series of "La Niña" years, 00:11:49.458 --> 00:11:55.729 than that heat stays in the ocean and warms up and therefore acidifies the ocean. 00:11:55.985 --> 00:11:59.628 Already the oceans have acidified to the extent that... 00:11:59.998 --> 00:12:05.624 more than half of the phytoplankton in the ocean has been killed within the last few decades. 00:12:06.803 --> 00:12:11.627 Phytoplankton is the base of the marine food web and it accounts for about half the food we eat. 00:12:12.454 --> 00:12:17.059 So, if we keep this up, we are going to kill all the phytoplankton. 00:12:18.107 --> 00:12:22.700 - Doesn't that also account for about 2/3 of the oxygen in the atmosphere? 00:12:22.990 --> 00:12:28.222 - It accounts almost 1 for 1 with land plants. 00:12:28.422 --> 00:12:31.484 So, it accounts for about half of the oxygen. 00:12:31.734 --> 00:12:35.282 And yes, it would be inconvenient to not have oxygen in the atmosphere. 00:12:35.390 --> 00:12:37.758 If that's where you're going with that question. 00:12:37.908 --> 00:12:42.701 However, oxygen is incredibly recalcitrant in the atmosphere, so... 00:12:42.881 --> 00:12:48.808 ...I suspect there would be a 1000 years or more before we have oxygen levels drop down to 16% 00:12:49.008 --> 00:12:53.314 or even 15%, in the atmosphere, as opposed to the current 18%. 00:12:53.494 --> 00:13:00.506 So, there will be a huge lag after phytoplankton die, before oxygen drops to unsafe levels. 00:13:00.706 --> 00:13:04.473 [Imperceptible question from audience] 00:13:04.678 --> 00:13:08.481 I... I don't know. 21? 00:13:08.786 --> 00:13:13.688 21. And 15, apparently, becomes dangerous for humans. 00:13:13.933 --> 00:13:18.009 So, we're a long way from oxygen being dangerous. 00:13:18.241 --> 00:13:26.681 - ??? is 11%, by asphixiation ???. Only that. Sorry. 00:13:28.903 --> 00:13:31.154 - Are you giving advise? 00:13:31.801 --> 00:13:34.901 I'm not even done yet! 00:13:37.023 --> 00:13:39.969 She's making a lovius called 'The End'... 00:13:40.540 --> 00:13:45.826 [Imperceptible question] 00:13:46.506 --> 00:13:50.723 The heat in the ocean helps explain why Antarctica 00:13:50.833 --> 00:13:54.630 and the Arctic are both loosing ice, yes. 00:13:54.820 --> 00:14:00.907 And in particular in Antarctica, it hasn't been observed until quite recently that the ice is melting, 00:14:01.117 --> 00:14:07.264 and it's melting from below, so the surface ice has remained approximately the same. 00:14:07.523 --> 00:14:11.899 But the ice is melting from below so we are loosing ice mass. 00:14:12.063 --> 00:14:17.123 It's much more obvious what's going on in the Arctic; the cover is being reduced as well as mass. 00:14:18.890 --> 00:14:23.892 We'll talk a little bit about the 28 self-reinforcing feedback loops 00:14:24.072 --> 00:14:28.254 that are irreversible at temporal spans relevant to the human condition. 00:14:28.934 --> 00:14:30.540 28. 00:14:30.735 --> 00:14:34.880 And then there are 2 that are reversible, if we have the political will. 00:14:35.054 --> 00:14:41.321 And we are gonna focus primarily on methane clathrates coming out of the Arctic Ocean, because 00:14:41.501 --> 00:14:45.085 that one happened 4 years ago, was reported in Science 4 years ago, 00:14:45.245 --> 00:14:51.029 so this is the one we know the most about, and we know quite a bit about it, at this point. 00:14:51.827 --> 00:14:56.302 And then I'm gonna just list the others because, at some point... 00:14:56.480 --> 00:14:58.561 ...there's no point. 00:14:58.757 --> 00:15:02.923 At some point you realize that we fired the gatling gun and the bullets are all coming 00:15:03.043 --> 00:15:09.714 and it only takes one to put us out, so why study the other 9 thousand bullets we fired. 00:15:14.871 --> 00:15:20.481 So the Arctic hold the methane hydrates or clathrates in the shallow sea floor of the Arctic Ocean, 00:15:20.642 --> 00:15:24.374 which are bubbling up to the surface and releasing the methane into the atmosphere, 00:15:24.504 --> 00:15:27.631 from these clathrates, these little cage structures. 00:15:27.781 --> 00:15:32.952 That methane in the Arctic sea floor alone is... 00:15:33.132 --> 00:15:36.387 ...equivalent to a thousand to ten thousand gigatons of carbon; 00:15:36.567 --> 00:15:44.296 versus 226 gigatons that were burned with fossil fuels as of March 2010. 00:15:44.713 --> 00:15:51.896 So now we are up to 260 gigatons of fossil fuels that were burned - of carbon we burned through fossil fuels - 00:15:52.094 --> 00:15:54.126 but, in an event, 00:15:54.296 --> 00:16:00.648 the methane hydrates in the Arctic are 4 to 40 times, roughly, the carbon equivalent 00:16:00.858 --> 00:16:05.870 of all the carbon dioxide we burned so far since the beginning of the industrial revolution. 00:16:06.310 --> 00:16:08.901 So... it's a lot. 00:16:10.121 --> 00:16:15.090 We now know that a minor increase in temperature is sufficient to trigger the methane release, 00:16:15.856 --> 00:16:20.516 and that's because the clathrates are in the shallow sea bed; 00:16:20.696 --> 00:16:23.976 they're not at great depth. 00:16:25.436 --> 00:16:31.328 A 50 Gigaton "burp" of methane is highly possible and that in tons is equivalent to more than 1000 Gigatons of carbon, 00:16:31.508 --> 00:16:34.694 or roughly 4 times of what we have burned so far. 00:16:34.842 --> 00:16:37.792 Highly possible at any time. 00:16:37.973 --> 00:16:43.797 Methane plumes have been observed up to 150 kilometres across, by NASAs CARVE project. 00:16:43.997 --> 00:16:50.896 A methane plume, what that looks like is... if you're in a ship out there in the Arctic ocean, 00:16:51.038 --> 00:16:56.066 and you happen to be in the middle of a methane plume, 150 kilometres across, 00:16:56.206 --> 00:17:02.243 it would be like ginger-ale bubbling out of the Arctic Ocean as far as you can see in every direction. 00:17:03.301 --> 00:17:06.880 You wouldn't see it for very long, because you'd be dead surely thereafter, 00:17:07.029 --> 00:17:09.708 because the methane is lethal. 00:17:10.080 --> 00:17:13.869 So, take the picture... for posterity. 00:17:16.644 --> 00:17:22.035 Based on an analysis from this one feedback alone, 00:17:22.305 --> 00:17:26.913 we can expect global average temperature at more than 4°C of baseline temperature by 2030, 00:17:27.089 --> 00:17:29.802 more than 10°C by 2040. 00:17:29.947 --> 00:17:36.130 And this is what that looks like, the same cramp kinds of polynomial curve to the existing data; 00:17:36.310 --> 00:17:43.342 It's number 3 here, and has methane going exponential out of the Arctic Ocean. 00:17:44.843 --> 00:17:48.905 Malcolm Light's analysis concludes that the Gulf Stream transport rate, 00:17:49.045 --> 00:17:53.810 or the thermo-healing conveyor belt, which drags warm Atlantic water up into the Arctic, 00:17:53.970 --> 00:17:59.576 started the methane hydrate or clathrate gun-firing in the Arctic in 2007, 00:17:59.736 --> 00:18:07.044 when the energy per year exceeded 10 million times the energy necessary to release those clathrates. 00:18:08.090 --> 00:18:10.231 More than 10 million times. 00:18:10.367 --> 00:18:14.150 So, this apparently has been going since 2007; 00:18:14.300 --> 00:18:18.460 I think that is a long enough time to conclude that the clathrate gun has been firing. 00:18:18.630 --> 00:18:23.483 The clathrate gun is what climate scientist, including James Hanson, have been worried about for a long time. 00:18:23.623 --> 00:18:28.407 In 'Storms of my grandchildren', Hanson worried quite a bit about firing clathrate guns, 00:18:28.557 --> 00:18:31.233 or the methane bomb; and looks like we are there. 00:18:31.369 --> 00:18:37.306 He only know about a self-reinforcing feedback loop being triggered by looking in the review mirror. 00:18:37.456 --> 00:18:42.038 We have about 7 years of review mirror, at this point. 00:18:44.447 --> 00:18:49.690 This illustrates what Albert Bartlett, professor emeritus from Colorado University for many years, 00:18:49.880 --> 00:18:54.057 described in his presentation, which he gave over a thousand times. 00:18:54.218 --> 00:19:00.181 He says "The greatest shortcoming of the human race is our inability to understand the exponential function." 00:19:00.539 --> 00:19:06.760 We think linearly, so we think that this change, so far, has been pretty linear. 00:19:07.952 --> 00:19:10.955 But event's have gone beyond linear now. 00:19:11.123 --> 00:19:18.613 We are no longer in the linear age in terms of change in the recent past, much less in the near future. 00:19:22.380 --> 00:19:27.101 An example commonly used is, in high-school classes, is: 00:19:27.271 --> 00:19:31.539 you have a pond and... algae, a tiny bit of algae, 00:19:31.689 --> 00:19:37.482 and the algae doubles in cover, everyday. 00:19:37.753 --> 00:19:42.862 How long after the lake is half-full before it's full? 00:19:43.062 --> 00:19:45.091 One day. 00:19:45.281 --> 00:19:50.020 That's an example of what happens with exponential function. 00:19:52.393 --> 00:19:57.022 What this looks like as if about 3 weeks ago, in terms of methane concentration, 00:19:57.196 --> 00:20:02.985 you see heavy concentration of methane in the Arctic and over the land masses of large continents. 00:20:03.145 --> 00:20:08.003 Siberia, where the methane is being released as the permafrost melts. 00:20:08.433 --> 00:20:11.055 Northern Canada and all through the Arctic. 00:20:11.225 --> 00:20:16.553 The measurements have been up to about 2400 ppb within the last few days. 00:20:16.733 --> 00:20:22.590 This is 1 of the 2 reasons that habitat for humans will disappear from the Northern Hemisphere 00:20:22.780 --> 00:20:25.731 before it disappears from the Southern Hemisphere. 00:20:25.981 --> 00:20:30.853 The other reason is that the land to water ratio is so much higher in the Northern Hemisphere 00:20:31.013 --> 00:20:33.427 than it is in the Southern Hemisphere, 00:20:33.587 --> 00:20:37.710 and land mass has heat up more than twice as fast as the global average. 00:20:37.874 --> 00:20:42.489 So at 2°C rise in global average temperature means 00:20:42.619 --> 00:20:47.244 roughly 4,5 or 5°C rise in the interior of continents. 00:20:47.414 --> 00:20:51.309 In the south-western interior of a large continent in the Northern Hemisphere, 00:20:51.389 --> 00:20:53.361 like, say right there where I live, 00:20:53.471 --> 00:20:59.143 you can expect habitat to disappear for humans within weeks after collapse is complete; 00:20:59.314 --> 00:21:03.165 or within weeks of hitting the 2°C global average. 00:21:03.742 --> 00:21:07.905 All this water, relative to land, in the Southern Hemisphere 00:21:08.075 --> 00:21:12.330 provides for a great ameliorating impact in terms of temperature rise. 00:21:12.470 --> 00:21:17.158 Not to mention the fact that there's this large continent down there that still has quite a bit of ice; 00:21:17.298 --> 00:21:21.920 in contrast to the Arctic, where the Us Navy even predicts 00:21:22.090 --> 00:21:26.342 that the Arctic ice will be gone by September 2016. 00:21:28.034 --> 00:21:34.899 That's the US Navy; the headline says: the Arctic ice will disappear by 2016, 84 years ahead of schedule. 00:21:35.090 --> 00:21:38.020 - [Laughter] - 84 years! 00:21:38.248 --> 00:21:40.535 - I'm thinking: who wrote the schedule? 00:21:42.743 --> 00:21:47.515 It's ahead of... Who wrote the schedule?? Did we put that on the calendar somewhere? 00:21:50.078 --> 00:21:52.282 Journalists. 00:21:54.242 --> 00:22:00.237 That's huge, by the way. What happens in the Arctic doesn't stay in the Arctic. It ain't Vegas. 00:22:00.430 --> 00:22:04.637 We loose the ice in the Arctic and things get really weird in a hurry. 00:22:04.832 --> 00:22:09.635 The Arctic is the planet's ice... air conditioner. Arctic Ice is the planetary conditioner. 00:22:09.875 --> 00:22:12.013 One example, 00:22:12.170 --> 00:22:14.510 to illustrate the point: 00:22:14.723 --> 00:22:21.681 To melt one gram of ice into one gram of water, 00:22:22.191 --> 00:22:24.359 at zero degrees, 00:22:24.639 --> 00:22:28.757 - so they are both at zero degrees, they are both at freezing - 00:22:28.957 --> 00:22:33.529 to melt one gram of ice to one gram of water requires 80 calories. 00:22:34.879 --> 00:22:41.777 Take that same 80 calories, put it into the gram of water, that is now melted at zero degrees, 00:22:41.947 --> 00:22:46.431 put in the 80 calories, it goes up to 80 degrees centigrade. 00:22:48.003 --> 00:22:51.943 When we get rid of the ice, that heat starts going into the ocean, 00:22:52.133 --> 00:22:57.123 starts warming up the ocean, instead of melting ice. 00:22:57.716 --> 00:23:02.912 When the Arctic ice is gone, an event we haven't observed in the human history, 00:23:03.172 --> 00:23:08.494 is going to produce profound changes in the temperature, global average temperature. 00:23:12.064 --> 00:23:17.593 There is one self-reinforcing feedback loop presented in the ??? ?????? in 2010, 00:23:17.759 --> 00:23:23.058 and there are 4 more, discovered and reported in 2011. 00:23:23.669 --> 00:23:29.009 One of those being Siberian methane, and methane was leaking out in Siberia as well out of land masses. 00:23:29.161 --> 00:23:32.009 It's not just out of the Arctic, it's out of land masses as well. 00:23:32.242 --> 00:23:38.843 And in Summer 2010, those methane events were about 30cm, about a foot in diameter. 00:23:39.073 --> 00:23:42.944 And so scientists would go out and light those on fire like these Roman candles, 00:23:43.134 --> 00:23:45.236 that just go wweeashhh, you know. 00:23:45.416 --> 00:23:49.171 Look mum, I can light a fire. This is what scientists do to get attention. 00:23:49.841 --> 00:23:53.964 This summer of 2010, those methane events are about 30 centimetres across. 00:23:54.114 --> 00:23:58.025 Summer 2011, they're a kilometre across. 00:23:58.215 --> 00:24:01.799 We're seeing geological events play out in real time. 00:24:02.003 --> 00:24:05.106 We're beyond linear in terms of climate change. 00:24:05.706 --> 00:24:11.228 So, one self-reinforcing feedback loop in 2010, 4 in 2011, 00:24:11.368 --> 00:24:13.618 the 6 in 2012... 00:24:13.798 --> 00:24:21.298 so we are seeing an acceleration of the reporting of the self-reinforcing feedback loops. 00:24:23.378 --> 00:24:28.063 And finally, in 2013, there were these 6... 00:24:28.363 --> 00:24:30.988 that gets us through July, 00:24:31.178 --> 00:24:34.735 and then there were these 6, that gets us through September. 00:24:34.945 --> 00:24:39.147 And then there are these 4... so there were 16. 00:24:40.014 --> 00:24:43.072 16 reported in 2013. 00:24:43.257 --> 00:24:48.490 So far only 1 reported in 2014 but we're running out of places to categorize these things. 00:24:48.700 --> 00:24:53.079 We are learning a lot more about each of these self-reinforcing feedback loops, 00:24:53.269 --> 00:24:59.297 and the evidence becomes increasingly dire and overwhelming. 00:25:02.811 --> 00:25:07.180 Finally there are 2 reversible feedback loops... 00:25:07.420 --> 00:25:10.823 ...aah, we could not drill in the Arctic, 00:25:10.996 --> 00:25:15.472 and in fact we aren't, any more. Isn't that awesome? 00:25:15.634 --> 00:25:19.485 Shell went up there in 2012, September, when they're fast tracked, 00:25:19.675 --> 00:25:25.329 they sent the two rigs in the world deemed capable of handling the weather in the Arctic, 00:25:25.499 --> 00:25:30.394 and they were crushed. Sometimes nature bats last. 00:25:30.694 --> 00:25:35.083 And they went screen back and spent the next year and a half working on them, 00:25:35.243 --> 00:25:39.482 and they just announced, 2 weeks ago, that they're not going back. 00:25:41.616 --> 00:25:46.367 That the seas are too hight, that we don't have the technology to extract that energy, 00:25:46.532 --> 00:25:50.028 and the energy doesn't have enough energy in it, 00:25:50.168 --> 00:25:54.517 the energy return on investment is so low that it's just not worth it. 00:25:54.657 --> 00:25:57.107 So far; we'll see if that holds. 00:25:57.267 --> 00:26:01.656 An finally, if there's a way to save a buck, we're gonna take the short-cut, right? 00:26:02.710 --> 00:26:05.238 One of my neighbours, in South-western New Mexico, 00:26:05.408 --> 00:26:09.187 gave a presentation at a public library, about two and a half weeks ago, 00:26:09.697 --> 00:26:15.873 and he was on the first ever tanker to go through the ?? at Northwest Passage. 00:26:16.113 --> 00:26:22.882 1969! He was on an oil freighter, of course, that busted it's way through the Northwest passage. 00:26:23.032 --> 00:26:29.570 He described the experience in riveting detail, it was a difficult task, 00:26:29.720 --> 00:26:35.018 and the other boats to break out that ?? and it got stuck and... it was really tough going. 00:26:35.198 --> 00:26:38.183 And now is like you can go up there in your sail boat. 00:26:38.343 --> 00:26:42.503 Anybody in September can go through the Northwest Passage now, it's open water. 00:26:42.693 --> 00:26:46.772 It was 1969, not that long ago. 00:26:48.629 --> 00:26:50.673 So now what? 00:26:51.507 --> 00:26:53.897 I like to check in with the pinguins, 00:26:54.087 --> 00:26:56.693 quick before we kill them all. 00:26:57.778 --> 00:27:02.086 There are two responses to this kind of information. 00:27:02.326 --> 00:27:07.949 There's the societal response, what do we do as a society, and there's the individual response. 00:27:08.135 --> 00:27:11.463 And the societal response remains the same as it has always been, 00:27:11.673 --> 00:27:17.603 "If the message is somehow we are going to ignore jobs and growth 00:27:17.763 --> 00:27:21.287 simply to address climate change,... I won't go for that." (Barack Obama, 14 Nov. 2012) 00:27:21.509 --> 00:27:26.265 And of course not, this is again in that category of promoting collapse, 00:27:26.531 --> 00:27:30.037 and no politician is going to get up on the stage and say: 00:27:30.297 --> 00:27:34.979 collapse is gonna save our species therefore we're gonna collapse the settle living arrangements. 00:27:38.611 --> 00:27:43.197 The Obama administration surely knew about this briefing 00:27:43.357 --> 00:27:46.293 from the Alliance of Small Island States at COP15, 00:27:46.393 --> 00:27:49.937 the Copenhagen climate change meeting that they threw under the bus, 00:27:50.127 --> 00:27:52.744 and this line comes from their report: 00:27:52.894 --> 00:27:58.446 "The long-term sea level that corresponds to current CO2 concentration is about 23 meters above today's levels..." 00:27:58.630 --> 00:28:03.586 This one were 385ppm of CO2 in the atmosphere; we are now at 396. 00:28:03.800 --> 00:28:07.737 "...and the temperatures will be 6 degrees C or more higher. 00:28:07.896 --> 00:28:12.795 These estimates are based on real long-term climate records, not on models." 00:28:12.965 --> 00:28:17.090 So there is a lag between CO2 emissions and temperature, 00:28:17.280 --> 00:28:20.413 or in the past, between temperature and CO2 emissions. 00:28:20.583 --> 00:28:26.096 When the catching up is done, to 385ppm of CO2, 00:28:26.306 --> 00:28:32.248 it's gonna produce conditions which are unsuitable for humans to survive. 00:28:35.475 --> 00:28:40.433 So then, in terms of individual response, I'd like to turn to the moral philosopher Bruce Springsteen, 00:28:40.586 --> 00:28:42.315 for my advise. 00:28:42.488 --> 00:28:46.290 "In the end what you don't surrender, well the world just strips away" 00:28:46.453 --> 00:28:50.442 Or lets say it like a Zen Buddhist, "Let go or be dragged". 00:28:50.628 --> 00:28:55.824 The near future will not be like the recent past. 00:28:58.470 --> 00:29:01.470 Or Carpe Diem, seize the day. 00:29:02.384 --> 00:29:07.031 When I speak at college campuses, the students point out after my presentation 00:29:07.191 --> 00:29:09.951 that I'm pronouncing this incorrectly. 00:29:10.132 --> 00:29:12.633 It's actually crappy diem. 00:29:13.238 --> 00:29:15.766 As in "You ruined my day." 00:29:16.902 --> 00:29:20.647 Or from Nietzsche, "live as though the day were here" to which I would add one thing, 00:29:20.807 --> 00:29:26.025 that's from the philosopher that pre-dated Nietzsche by a couple thousand years, 00:29:26.385 --> 00:29:30.563 Hippocrates, from the 'Hippocratic Oath': "First, do no harm". 00:29:32.353 --> 00:29:37.196 And finally, from the poet Leon Staff in the 'Warsaw Ghetto' 00:29:37.937 --> 00:29:43.961 "Even more than bread we now need poetry, in a time that it seems that it is not needed at all." 00:29:47.642 --> 00:29:51.446 We had science and technology for quite a long time, 00:29:52.456 --> 00:29:57.235 and the technology produced by the knowledge that comes from science 00:29:57.430 --> 00:30:00.127 has been catastrophic. 00:30:00.255 --> 00:30:04.497 Let's take the window berry brow, do some poetry now. 00:30:06.214 --> 00:30:08.764 I always finished like a Hollywood movie. 00:30:09.452 --> 00:30:11.644 I have really good news... 00:30:11.772 --> 00:30:16.072 You get to die. [DNA assures our unique stature (i.e., you get to die)] 00:30:16.198 --> 00:30:18.400 Isn't that awesome? 00:30:18.490 --> 00:30:21.458 It is, it means you got to live; and the odds against you living, 00:30:21.608 --> 00:30:24.756 the odds against this collection of DNA being present, 00:30:24.926 --> 00:30:31.960 exceed the odds against plucking at random a single atom from the entire Universe. 00:30:32.970 --> 00:30:37.211 We know a lot about DNA, we know roughly how many atoms there are in the Universe: 00:30:37.346 --> 00:30:41.275 between 10^80 and 10^100 atoms in the universe. 00:30:41.436 --> 00:30:44.965 The odds against you being here, you being in this physical form, 00:30:45.105 --> 00:30:49.095 your DNA appearing in this collection, in this human body, 00:30:49.285 --> 00:30:56.102 any time, ever, exceed by far the odds against plucking a single atom from the entire Universe. 00:30:56.286 --> 00:31:00.496 If I believed in miracles I would think we all were one. 00:31:00.785 --> 00:31:04.061 It's incredible! We get to die. 00:31:04.261 --> 00:31:07.159 And that means, we get to live. 00:31:07.829 --> 00:31:10.840 As the evolutionary biologist Richard Dawkins said: 00:31:11.010 --> 00:31:15.833 "In the teeth of these stupefying odds, it is you and I that are privileged to be here, 00:31:15.953 --> 00:31:20.707 privileged with eyes to see where we are and brains to wonder why." 00:31:20.883 --> 00:31:22.726 Nobody else gets to do this. 00:31:22.896 --> 00:31:25.190 And I'll add something else: 00:31:26.059 --> 00:31:28.502 We are here at the end. 00:31:28.733 --> 00:31:32.156 Everybody else you've ever known checked out before the movie was over. 00:31:32.255 --> 00:31:33.328 - Oh shit! 00:31:33.465 --> 00:31:36.736 - And we get to be here AT THE END. 00:31:37.511 --> 00:31:40.479 If that isn't awesome I don't know what is. 00:31:42.814 --> 00:31:49.344 And this is amazing because we are the last human beings to get to display our humanity, 00:31:49.535 --> 00:31:53.444 to get to demonstrate the best of what it means to be human. 00:31:54.089 --> 00:31:57.108 We get to act as if we're in hospice because we are. 00:31:57.436 --> 00:32:00.172 Because the whole planet is at this point, 00:32:00.372 --> 00:32:05.242 including the species that remain, after we drive 200 species to extinction every day. 00:32:05.465 --> 00:32:07.353 The whole planet is in hospice. 00:32:07.502 --> 00:32:11.314 When I see people in hospice I don't see people grumping for another dollar. 00:32:11.514 --> 00:32:13.663 I see people giving things away. 00:32:13.778 --> 00:32:17.600 I don't see people hoarding, I see people giving of themselves. 00:32:17.810 --> 00:32:20.885 I see people acting with kindness and compassion, 00:32:21.045 --> 00:32:23.856 and going out with some ??? of dignity. 00:32:24.966 --> 00:32:26.542 Let's try that! 00:32:26.688 --> 00:32:30.002 Even if all the data are wrong; even if I'm wrong. 00:32:31.331 --> 00:32:33.530 Wouldn't that be something? 00:32:33.673 --> 00:32:37.043 Wouldn't that be a pretty reasonable way to live? 00:32:37.591 --> 00:32:39.225 I think so. 00:32:39.426 --> 00:32:42.154 But I've been called some funny names. 00:32:42.353 --> 00:32:46.730 Things that we might pursue in hospice, and here is the typical CEO response: 00:32:46.900 --> 00:32:51.636 "And so, while the end-of-the-world scenario will be rife with unimaginable horrors, 00:32:51.796 --> 00:32:56.874 we believe that the pre-end period will be filled with unprecedented opportunities for profit." 00:32:57.441 --> 00:33:00.684 [Laughter] 00:33:00.970 --> 00:33:03.888 So, this is the Goldman Sachs approach. 00:33:04.039 --> 00:33:06.669 I mean, this is ??? 00:33:07.118 --> 00:33:09.056 and Jamie Diamond, 00:33:09.216 --> 00:33:15.359 and the people who apparently just love money so much that they must have more. 00:33:15.522 --> 00:33:19.115 This is the 85 people on the planet... 00:33:19.410 --> 00:33:25.617 ...who have much net financial worth as... half of the people in the planet. 00:33:27.391 --> 00:33:31.735 But I don't think this would be anybody in this room or you wouldn't be in this room. 00:33:31.869 --> 00:33:33.918 There's money to be made out there. 00:33:34.058 --> 00:33:37.732 Still money to be made in planetary destruction; get out there and get after it! 00:33:37.872 --> 00:33:40.538 No, I don't think this is us.I think... 00:33:40.728 --> 00:33:44.623 I think we are the people who actually might be interested in pursuing something different than that, 00:33:44.773 --> 00:33:49.847 something other than fiat currency, like: we might pursue love, in lives of excellence. 00:33:50.460 --> 00:33:54.989 And by lives of excellence I am thinking here of Socrates and his approach. 00:33:55.181 --> 00:33:58.107 He spent an entire life asking 6 questions. 00:33:58.289 --> 00:34:03.667 6 questions! That's all, he just went around asking people questions; 6 questions at various forms. 00:34:04.316 --> 00:34:06.428 What is courage? 00:34:06.578 --> 00:34:08.344 What is good? 00:34:08.574 --> 00:34:10.426 What is justice? 00:34:10.536 --> 00:34:13.892 What is moderation? What is piety? What is virtue? 00:34:14.013 --> 00:34:15.604 6 questions. 00:34:15.766 --> 00:34:19.326 After 7 years they killed him for it. We should be so lucky. 00:34:20.138 --> 00:34:23.942 To ????? so much that we... just by asking questions, 00:34:24.132 --> 00:34:27.078 the state can't tolerate us anymore. 00:34:27.249 --> 00:34:31.126 What a way to go! Nobody gets out alive. 00:34:31.595 --> 00:34:34.743 So that's a life of excelence; and pursuing love, pursuing those we love. 00:34:34.903 --> 00:34:38.834 I´m thinking about your children, your grandchildren, the people you love spending time with, 00:34:38.984 --> 00:34:43.664 and I'm also thinking about the living planet that sustains us all. 00:34:43.984 --> 00:34:48.986 It's a living planet that allows us to live. Not the other way around. 00:34:51.646 --> 00:34:55.140 I used to say, before the great recession really kicked in, 00:34:55.510 --> 00:34:59.266 that if you think the economy is more important then the environment, 00:34:59.426 --> 00:35:02.538 try holding your breath while counting your money. 00:35:03.238 --> 00:35:06.159 But then I'd speak in Michigan and people would pull out their wallet, 00:35:06.329 --> 00:35:10.464 while holding their breath, and put it back in and say: "what else do you got?" 00:35:11.403 --> 00:35:13.962 They didn't take but a couple of minutes. 00:35:14.122 --> 00:35:17.270 Because in Michigan they're in the front line of collapse. 00:35:18.289 --> 00:35:21.008 I think we can do better than what we've been doing. 00:35:22.654 --> 00:35:26.631 Occasionally people despair, while hearing me speak... 00:35:27.342 --> 00:35:29.492 [Laughter] 00:35:30.698 --> 00:35:33.227 Astonishing, I know. 00:35:33.378 --> 00:35:36.655 Or from the ??? ???: "Inconceivable!" 00:35:38.238 --> 00:35:41.751 To which I respond: The action is the antidote to despair. 00:35:41.909 --> 00:35:45.807 Even if, especially if, 00:35:47.238 --> 00:35:49.900 our actions don't matter in the long run. 00:35:50.080 --> 00:35:55.071 What better judge of our character than our willingness and ability to act? 00:35:55.272 --> 00:35:59.517 I once read that the best judgement of a man's character - obviously this wasn't written by a man - 00:35:59.658 --> 00:36:04.421 the best judgement of a man's character is what he can do for those who do nothing for him. 00:36:04.559 --> 00:36:09.624 What he does for those who can do nothing for him. 00:36:10.208 --> 00:36:13.883 So think about that. Think about people who can't do nothing for you. 00:36:14.040 --> 00:36:19.081 You have power over them, and yet you treat them with kindness and dignity and compassion. 00:36:19.241 --> 00:36:23.318 And we can do that... about everything. 00:36:23.528 --> 00:36:28.358 It's not just about our character, it's about everything we do; it's about our humanity. 00:36:28.511 --> 00:36:31.310 Action is the antidote to despair. 00:36:31.500 --> 00:36:36.457 Is iconoclastic, ??????? pointed out years and years ago 00:36:37.670 --> 00:36:41.595 So, if you're damned if you do and damned if you don't, 00:36:41.772 --> 00:36:44.886 then do! What do you got to loose? 00:36:45.046 --> 00:36:47.105 What do we got to loose? 00:36:47.275 --> 00:36:49.820 Let's do something! 00:36:50.942 --> 00:36:54.897 Even if ultimately it wont make any difference. 00:36:55.329 --> 00:37:00.225 We are judged only by ourselves. There is no History left to judge us anymore. 00:37:04.359 --> 00:37:07.761 If you wanna learn more about my writting, 00:37:08.159 --> 00:37:11.663 and how could you not, [Laughter] 00:37:13.679 --> 00:37:18.458 I write profusely at 'Nature Bats Last', guymcpherson.com 00:37:18.604 --> 00:37:24.201 and I write a monthly essay for 'Transition Voice since the ??? was found dead about 4 years ago, 00:37:24.386 --> 00:37:29.583 and my latest effort is with a couple of other teachers and homesteaders 00:37:29.833 --> 00:37:33.340 in preparing people for an ambiguous future. 00:37:36.816 --> 00:37:40.927 Finally, my latest book is called 'Going Dark', and I have copies here. 00:37:41.080 --> 00:37:45.437 I promote in practice a gift economy, which means you can just take one if you want. 00:37:45.607 --> 00:37:49.964 There are also bookmarks; laminated bookmarks. 00:37:50.114 --> 00:37:53.281 And the bookmarks have, most importantly, 00:37:53.421 --> 00:37:56.308 this url on them. 00:37:56.498 --> 00:38:00.894 So, there's an essay in 'Going Dark' that starts on page 85, 00:38:01.094 --> 00:38:06.270 that describes the dire nature of the climate situation. I've only given just a brief overview here. 00:38:06.570 --> 00:38:13.482 And all this information can be found with links, at: guymcpherson.com/climate-chaos/ 00:38:13.645 --> 00:38:19.652 That url is on these bookmarks, so by all means take a bookmark, take a book, 00:38:19.832 --> 00:38:24.883 if you wanna give me a gift back you can give me fiat currency, but... 00:38:25.572 --> 00:38:28.467 but I'm not asking for that. If you want, give me a gift. 00:38:28.612 --> 00:38:32.910 Sometimes when I speak at college campuses, nobody has any money, of course specially college students; 00:38:33.070 --> 00:38:37.247 they owe their entire life savings, forever, to the federal government, 00:38:37.377 --> 00:38:39.889 just for the privilege of going to school, 00:38:40.079 --> 00:38:43.200 so, frequently they give me pieces of art. 00:38:43.777 --> 00:38:48.337 But, last time that I spoke in a college campus it was in Winnipeg, 00:38:48.556 --> 00:38:53.257 and I complained that I would sign books but I don't have a pen, 00:38:53.421 --> 00:38:56.837 and so the first guy says "Here, you can have my pen. I'll take a book." 00:38:56.987 --> 00:39:00.560 So, sounds great! Thoughtfull. Some people are clever. 00:39:02.659 --> 00:39:06.926 I would be... ecstatic to entertain your questions, or comments, 00:39:07.097 --> 00:39:10.205 and at this point, of course, answers are particularly welcome. 00:39:10.370 --> 00:39:14.446 Thank you very much attention and, please, lets have a discussion. 00:39:14.727 --> 00:39:21.342 [Applause] 00:39:22.209 --> 00:39:24.501 Thank you! Can we turn the lights up? 00:39:24.956 --> 00:39:26.693 All the way in the back there? 00:39:26.937 --> 00:39:32.027 - Do you see any possibilities for a mass-scale investment in carbon sequestration, 00:39:32.027 --> 00:39:37.239 soils, trees, plants, in a time scale that could make a difference? 00:39:39.816 --> 00:39:43.656 I heard a trillion tree programme ??? ??? 00:39:44.040 --> 00:39:50.459 - Right... - ...and soils; those sequestred in a time frame that may yet be relevant? 00:39:50.856 --> 00:39:52.727 - No. - O.K. 00:39:53.065 --> 00:39:56.284 - And a primary reason for that is... 00:39:56.284 --> 00:40:01.870 it's gonna require an enormous amount of fossil fuel energy to plant trees, 00:40:01.870 --> 00:40:06.803 and to transport the water to the desert where that project proposes planting those trees. 00:40:08.932 --> 00:40:15.547 In addition, the time is so short, we are talking a decade and a half. 00:40:16.571 --> 00:40:21.454 To implement change, trees just are not gonna grow that fast and sequester that much carbon. 00:40:21.753 --> 00:40:24.354 In addition, they are carbon neutral. 00:40:25.432 --> 00:40:29.695 You plant the trees, they grow, they sequester the carbon, and then what happens for them? 00:40:29.992 --> 00:40:34.349 - They die. - That's right, they die, and almost all that carbon is released back up to the atmosphere. 00:40:34.349 --> 00:40:39.248 They fix some in the soils, in ???, depends on the ecosystem how much they fix in the soils... 00:40:39.248 --> 00:40:44.889 But I don't see that; and I read about this data that this essay, with few likes. 00:40:45.786 --> 00:40:49.807 Aaahm... right up here. Maybe not. Go ahead. 00:40:50.103 --> 00:40:56.805 - Did you say that link that...That link will have information from your presentation, or? 00:40:56.805 --> 00:41:03.586 - Yes. All the information I presented here is included there, and there´s links to everything I said. 00:41:03.586 --> 00:41:04.682 - O.K. 00:41:04.682 --> 00:41:11.343 - So, this is the single best source of what's going on in the real world of climate change. 00:41:12.023 --> 00:41:16.916 -O.K. I have a second question.Earlier you were talking about positive feedback loops, 00:41:17.335 --> 00:41:23.357 and I was just wondering if the ones you listed, you said there was two that we could change, 00:41:23.357 --> 00:41:26.057 'reversible', and there were 16, was it? 00:41:26.057 --> 00:41:29.322 - 28. - Oh, 28, yeah, right, yeah. 00:41:29.322 --> 00:41:34.653 The ones you listed... I mean... what about like... 00:41:35.258 --> 00:41:39.385 the plankton that dies and the carbon that's released from that, 00:41:39.385 --> 00:41:42.992 and that's like a sink, and then like the... I don't know... 00:41:42.992 --> 00:41:47.785 - I love it when I´m the most optimistic person in the room! 00:41:47.785 --> 00:41:49.956 [Laughter] -Yeah, and then there's a... 00:41:49.956 --> 00:41:54.476 - Yeah, these are the ones that are reported in sort of the mainstream scientific arena. 00:41:54.891 --> 00:41:59.688 And there may well be others that people haven't thought over, that we haven't documented yet. 00:42:00.044 --> 00:42:03.670 Like the fact that all those phytoplanktons are gonna die 00:42:03.670 --> 00:42:07.424 and are gonna be unable to fix the carbon they're fixing now. 00:42:07.997 --> 00:42:09.106 - Right. 00:42:09.811 --> 00:42:12.137 - Yeah. You're a happy good lucky guy, I can tell. 00:42:12.715 --> 00:42:15.125 You love the fun of the party, aren't you? [Laughter] 00:42:15.816 --> 00:42:22.494 - I have read climate scientists who don't ??? ??? I read Hanson, Kevin Anderson... 00:42:22.494 --> 00:42:29.359 none of them, so far that I have known, predict that human beings are gong to be extinct in 15 years 00:42:29.621 --> 00:42:32.577 [imperceptible] 00:42:33.027 --> 00:42:35.331 - Yes, that's right 00:42:35.720 --> 00:42:38.858 - Why?. What facts do you have that we're not hearing from other scientists? 00:42:39.092 --> 00:42:43.229 - Almost nobody is willing to admit that the clathrate gun has been fired. 00:42:43.421 --> 00:42:47.473 That includes Hanson. Although Hanson made a major shift within the last month. 00:42:47.669 --> 00:42:53.398 Up until a month ago, he said that 2°C is a relevant target, 00:42:53.675 --> 00:42:59.061 and less than a month ago, he said 1°C; we can not possibly go beyond 1°C. 00:42:59.061 --> 00:43:05.202 As we've known since the United Nations (UN) greenhouse gas task force reported, 00:43:05.202 --> 00:43:09.382 in October 1990, that we can't go over 1°C or it's gonna be utter catastrophe. 00:43:09.382 --> 00:43:14.478 Well, it turns out that we have our utter catastrophe with the self-reinforcing feedback loops at .85 00:43:14.977 --> 00:43:16.847 Earlier than expected. 00:43:16.847 --> 00:43:20.004 Kevin Anderson is the guy in the UK that doesn't fly, 00:43:20.004 --> 00:43:25.578 ...and he is the person who comes the closest to anybody I know 00:43:25.578 --> 00:43:28.059 who still has a job who speaks truth to power. 00:43:29.022 --> 00:43:32.439 So, I have great respect for him and great respect for James Hanson, 00:43:32.439 --> 00:43:35.564 although James Hanson is still on the nuclear phase 00:43:35.564 --> 00:43:40.174 unaware that recent scientific literature indicates that 00:43:40.174 --> 00:43:46.632 nuclear power plants are not carbon neutral, they actually produce fossil fuel carbon 00:43:46.812 --> 00:43:52.405 to build them, and get them going; over their life span, they are carbon intensive. 00:43:53.370 --> 00:43:57.836 So, I think Hanson is behind the time. 00:43:59.586 --> 00:44:02.474 Yes, he has been outspoken for a long time, 00:44:02.474 --> 00:44:05.801 but I don't think he has kept up with the relevant literature. 00:44:07.914 --> 00:44:10.638 - What are your thoughts about Fukushima? 00:44:10.638 --> 00:44:13.303 - What are my thoughts about Fukushima? 00:44:14.503 --> 00:44:16.720 I think it was probably a bad idea. 00:44:17.138 --> 00:44:20.072 [Laughter] 00:44:21.271 --> 00:44:23.805 I wasn't done with my sentence... 00:44:26.754 --> 00:44:32.358 Who's that actor? That guy... when he gets a script he throws out all the punctuation? 00:44:32.358 --> 00:44:34.788 [Imperceptable] 00:44:34.788 --> 00:44:36.402 Maybe him too, but it´s not... 00:44:36.402 --> 00:44:38.166 Christopher Walken! 00:44:38.166 --> 00:44:41.142 Christopher Walken throws out the punctuation and that's why... 00:44:41.441 --> 00:44:44.903 he has these unusual gaps in the way he speaks. 00:44:44.903 --> 00:44:47.854 He doesn't make a lot of sense, sometimes. 00:44:47.955 --> 00:44:50.493 He's a funny guy! 00:44:50.493 --> 00:44:53.192 But I digress. 00:44:53.477 --> 00:44:56.291 I think it's a bad idea to... 00:44:56.927 --> 00:45:03.488 ...to implement a programme so that we can boil water 00:45:04.126 --> 00:45:08.598 without having the slightest clue of what to do with the waste product. 00:45:09.502 --> 00:45:13.985 Waste products that last millions of years, in the case of plutonium. 00:45:13.985 --> 00:45:18.821 There has never been a human structure to last longer than 50 thousand years. 00:45:19.790 --> 00:45:23.622 We're so filled with uberess that we think "oh, we'll fix that; we'll solve that later." 00:45:23.622 --> 00:45:27.946 So in 1939, when the nuclear age begin, we just assumed someone would fix that down the road. 00:45:27.946 --> 00:45:30.918 Guess what, nobody fixed it. 00:45:31.883 --> 00:45:37.553 There is a paper presented at American Geophysical Union meetings... 00:45:38.401 --> 00:45:41.562 aahm, Robin: what's the guy's name? - Brad Werner. 00:45:42.137 --> 00:45:47.055 Brad Werner; if he was in Germany it would be Verner. But he's Brad Werner. 00:45:47.055 --> 00:45:51.030 And the title of his talk was "Is Earth Fucked". 00:45:51.688 --> 00:45:52.821 [Laughter] 00:45:54.295 --> 00:45:57.792 And I think he.... yeah. I mean he did answered it. 00:45:58.745 --> 00:46:02.024 But it's pretty clear that because of cluster Fukushima... 00:46:03.255 --> 00:46:06.768 somewhere such events, I mean, just consider Fukushima, 00:46:06.768 --> 00:46:15.558 which according to Hellen Calicut, Arnic Anderson and David Suzuki and other nuclear folks, 00:46:15.558 --> 00:46:23.334 Fukushima alone represents a significant threat to human habitat in the Northern Hemisphere. 00:46:23.509 --> 00:46:26.761 There is four hundred and forty some nuclear power plants around the world 00:46:27.055 --> 00:46:31.820 and so if we collapse the settled living arrangements, if we stop, 00:46:31.820 --> 00:46:35.763 if we get that president that stands up and says "I'm gonna have lights out by the day after tomorrow", 00:46:36.314 --> 00:46:40.164 and we actually pull that off, than we could have stopped runaway greenhouse, 00:46:40.164 --> 00:46:42.630 if we did that like 40 years ago, 00:46:42.630 --> 00:46:45.810 but,then all the nuclear power plants in the world melted out, 00:46:46.638 --> 00:46:48.726 so that's gonna be inconvenient. 00:46:50.502 --> 00:46:52.367 - Why would they melt down? 00:46:52.744 --> 00:46:55.842 Because they rely upon grid tie electricity 00:46:55.842 --> 00:46:59.738 to maintain the circulation of the water through the cooling ponds. 00:47:00.227 --> 00:47:08.310 Until those spent few rods spend years in this cooling ponds 00:47:08.310 --> 00:47:12.530 and then are stored into dry cask storage, they're dangerous. 00:47:13.719 --> 00:47:16.424 So, they're dangerous for a long time. 00:47:16.424 --> 00:47:21.384 There was a panel in New York City late last year, including Ralph Nader 00:47:21.384 --> 00:47:25.502 and the most recent ex-head of the Nuclear Regulatory Commission in the United States, 00:47:25.502 --> 00:47:30.126 and they were asked, at the very end of the panel, how long it would take to decommission Indian Point, 00:47:30.126 --> 00:47:34.233 the new nuclear power plant right outside New York City. And they hummed and hummed, refusing to answer. 00:47:34.233 --> 00:47:39.390 And finally, they were badgered long enoug that they had to come with an answer. They said 6 decades... 00:47:40.399 --> 00:47:42.627 to shut down Indian Point. 00:47:44.310 --> 00:47:46.228 6 decades... 00:47:48.222 --> 00:47:49.808 It's a long time! 00:47:50.111 --> 00:47:52.510 Forever is a long time, especially towards the end. 00:47:53.406 --> 00:48:00.039 - A difficult question. I have read a novel about global warming and it described a lot of what you are saying, 00:48:00.039 --> 00:48:06.764 but I also struggle with this idea, we have a mythology that human beings are this sort of alien presence 00:48:06.764 --> 00:48:11.966 and we're doing this terrible thing to nature. And to point a fact: we are nature. 00:48:11.966 --> 00:48:16.242 There is nothing outside of nature and we are exactly what nature is doing. 00:48:16.242 --> 00:48:20.993 And, you know, if I go over Phoenix, or looking at what's going on in China, 00:48:20.993 --> 00:48:24.900 it seems like it's nature doing this; 00:48:24.900 --> 00:48:30.491 and from your philosophical side... because often we want to demonize people for going to Disneyland 00:48:30.491 --> 00:48:37.510 or driving a SUV, but you know what? Usually is, in many cases, their best human emotions, 00:48:37.779 --> 00:48:41.646 they want their families safe so, out of love they think and consider these things safe, 00:48:41.646 --> 00:48:45.698 but of course, wont, but they're going to Disneyland because they are doing it for their kids. 00:48:45.698 --> 00:48:50.329 So you are working against something so fundamental in the human experience, 00:48:50.329 --> 00:48:55.571 that it's also, probably, the best art that people experience themselves. 00:48:55.571 --> 00:48:59.550 and to tell them "now you are wrong; now you're destroying everything 00:48:59.550 --> 00:49:03.761 when you're an abomination to all of nature" it's a very difficult thing philosophicaly. 00:49:03.761 --> 00:49:10.956 So I'd like to know your philosopher side; if we are nature... and we didn't come from another planet, 00:49:10.956 --> 00:49:14.687 we are doing what nature wants done here. 00:49:14.687 --> 00:49:18.171 - Anybody familiar with Lucy Kay? Comediant. - Oh Yeah! 00:49:18.171 --> 00:49:20.260 - Social character, Lucy Kay? I love this. 00:49:20.260 --> 00:49:25.784 The one on Indians? This one little one minute clip on Indians, it's awesome. 00:49:25.784 --> 00:49:29.743 He says "Sometimes I think people came from like another planet." That's how he starts. 00:49:29.743 --> 00:49:32.611 So, they were just that alien. 00:49:33.659 --> 00:49:35.855 But no, we are in fact part of nature. 00:49:35.855 --> 00:49:39.877 We act as if we are apart from nature, instead of a part of nature, 00:49:40.569 --> 00:49:42.673 but we're definitely a part of nature. 00:49:43.275 --> 00:49:46.135 And we are the mutant part. 00:49:46.522 --> 00:49:50.676 2 million years human beings lived on the planet without going and taking a population overshoot. 00:49:50.676 --> 00:49:56.205 2 million years humans lived on the planet, at the global level, without going to human population overshoot. 00:49:56.205 --> 00:50:04.375 2 million years we lived in... in systems, in social systems, 00:50:04.375 --> 00:50:09.572 that did not allow for degradation of human habitat. 00:50:10.041 --> 00:50:13.870 And then, a few thousand years ago we discovered civilization 00:50:14.159 --> 00:50:18.985 and civilization grew several times, more or less, ...several places, more or less simultaneously 00:50:18.985 --> 00:50:24.551 and from then it's all have been a wild drive, we were immediately in overpopulation overshoot 00:50:24.551 --> 00:50:28.371 and started destroying water and fouling the air and washing the soil into the ocean, 00:50:28.371 --> 00:50:31.338 and all that stuff we have been doing since then, 00:50:31.338 --> 00:50:34.272 furthermore ???? up human population overshoot, 00:50:34.272 --> 00:50:37.069 in the rate of 207 thousand or so people a day, that's ??? 00:50:37.069 --> 00:50:44.268 so, if you're looking for fault, for blame, it's not you and me. 00:50:44.268 --> 00:50:47.844 It's these settled living arrangements into which we have been born. 00:50:47.844 --> 00:50:52.070 We are born into captivity, we are born in the civilization, we didn't get to choose. 00:50:52.070 --> 00:50:56.736 Nobody comes out and says "Oh shit! No, I'm going back in." 00:50:57.341 --> 00:50:58.525 [Laughter] 00:50:58.910 --> 00:51:02.441 Right? Not only that but it just keeps getting better, right?, We've got ipods now. 00:51:03.470 --> 00:51:07.708 And the whole thing. And it just looks like it keeps getting better. 00:51:08.001 --> 00:51:10.779 Every year my life has been worse than the year before. 00:51:10.779 --> 00:51:14.046 Every year we dirty more air and foul more water and that whole thing, 00:51:14.046 --> 00:51:18.704 and everybody I know thinks it's getting better because we have smartphones. Right? 00:51:19.106 --> 00:51:21.906 So that's my bumper sticker "Genocide for Smartphones". 00:51:22.906 --> 00:51:25.092 We know how we chose, didn't we? 00:51:25.394 --> 00:51:29.013 More about blame. Of course it's not our fault, we're born into this settled living arangements, 00:51:29.013 --> 00:51:33.102 we did what society expected of us and if we didn't we were called crazy... 00:51:34.084 --> 00:51:39.076 and furthermore, it's FORTY YEARS... from cause to effect; 00:51:39.937 --> 00:51:43.667 It's 40 years from greenhouse gas emissions until temperature rise. 00:51:45.749 --> 00:51:51.571 40 years! Forty years ago, I was 13. I wasn't even driving. 00:51:52.103 --> 00:51:58.502 I was looking forward to it, having no clue, in my early teens, what the consequences would be. 00:51:59.905 --> 00:52:01.813 None of us knew. 00:52:02.174 --> 00:52:06.268 If you knew 40 years ago that we were headed for the abyss, 00:52:06.951 --> 00:52:10.241 and you lived this long, you're a stronger person than me. 00:52:11.208 --> 00:52:14.040 To have that clatter around in your head... - Thank you! 00:52:14.768 --> 00:52:16.306 - Yeah, thank you! 00:52:17.292 --> 00:52:19.618 [Laughter] 00:52:21.340 --> 00:52:25.006 - Did she just say ... Did she just thank me for calling her crazy? 00:52:26.272 --> 00:52:27.730 Because I almost never get that! 00:52:28.001 --> 00:52:29.938 Ok, You're all crazy! 00:52:30.272 --> 00:52:32.545 - Thank you! - Thank you! [Laughter] 00:52:33.103 --> 00:52:38.885 So, it's 40 years from cause to effect, from action to consequence 00:52:39.325 --> 00:52:43.754 in terms of warming of the planet, and within the last 29 years 00:52:43.754 --> 00:52:48.392 we generated more greenhouse gas emissions than in the previous 236 years combined. 00:52:49.134 --> 00:52:54.786 So we haven't even begun to see the temperature rise associated with those last 29 years. 00:52:56.079 --> 00:53:00.022 .85 is a walk in the park compared to what's coming. 00:53:00.480 --> 00:53:02.472 .85 °C rise. 00:53:02.849 --> 00:53:10.009 So, I'm not looking to blame anybody, except the whole thing. 00:53:10.405 --> 00:53:14.009 The whole system is irredeemably corrupt, and we just showed up, 00:53:14.009 --> 00:53:15.681 like we didn't get to choose it. 00:53:15.681 --> 00:53:19.145 We could have chose sometime when we wouldn't get to see the end of the movie. 00:53:19.414 --> 00:53:22.036 And for most people, they think that was better. 00:53:24.753 --> 00:53:31.468 - What do you think of some of these ideas about shooting particles up in the atmosphere? 00:53:32.405 --> 00:53:34.935 - Geoengineering is a fine question. 00:53:35.746 --> 00:53:39.943 Lets see what the intergovernmental panel on climate change, 00:53:39.943 --> 00:53:44.481 in their latest assessment, which ???, which has been heavily leeked, 00:53:44.481 --> 00:53:48.692 they say "Global warming is irreversible without massive geoengineering of the atmosphere's chemistry." 00:53:48.692 --> 00:53:50.520 that's a direct quote. 00:53:50.520 --> 00:53:53.426 Since then, we've got a paper coming out from Earth System Dynamics, that says: 00:53:53.426 --> 00:53:58.468 "Climate geo-engineering cannot simply be used to undo global warming" 00:53:59.287 --> 00:54:02.556 Next paper: "Geoengineering may succeed in cooling the Earth, but it would also 00:54:02.556 --> 00:54:06.537 disrupt precipitation patterns around the world."so we couldn't actually grow any food. 00:54:07.012 --> 00:54:10.083 Next paper: "Attempts to reverse the impacts of global warming 00:54:10.083 --> 00:54:14.014 by injecting reflective particles into the stratosphere could make matters worse." 00:54:14.014 --> 00:54:19.573 Next paper Environmental Research Letters "Risk of abrupt and dangerous warming is inherent 00:54:19.573 --> 00:54:25.136 to the large-scale implementation of ..." Solar Radiation Management. Putting particles up into the air. 00:54:25.136 --> 00:54:28.571 Next paper, from a couple of days ago. Current schemes, 00:54:28.571 --> 00:54:33.834 and this paper looked at 5, the 5 most common current schemes of geoengineering, 00:54:33.834 --> 00:54:38.338 "Current schemes are likely to either be relatively useless or actually make things worse" 00:54:38.900 --> 00:54:41.537 Finally, let's ask the people what they think. 00:54:41.537 --> 00:54:44.407 They think it's a stupid idea. 00:54:45.247 --> 00:54:46.812 I agree with them. 00:54:47.182 --> 00:54:50.842 For a change, I agree with people in this completely irredeemably corrupt society. 00:54:51.584 --> 00:54:53.459 I think they figured this one out. 00:54:56.412 --> 00:55:02.177 [Imperceptible] 00:55:02.177 --> 00:55:06.076 - ...there is nothing that can be done, doesn't make any difference ???, 00:55:06.943 --> 00:55:13.982 nothing can change the fact that everyone in this room is going to die from climate change. 00:55:13.982 --> 00:55:22.045 Do yo feel that presenting things in that form actually encourages people to try and do something about it? 00:55:23.265 --> 00:55:24.462 - No. - No. It doesn't. 00:55:25.762 --> 00:55:30.603 - For several reasons. First of all, I don't know anybody, well there's a handful of people around the world, 00:55:30.799 --> 00:55:34.414 ??? resistance members among them, who are trying to terminate the settle living arrangements. 00:55:34.614 --> 00:55:39.510 I've been trying to do that for a long time and it really hasn't worked out very well. 00:55:39.510 --> 00:55:44.964 2, people say: Well, in light of this information don't you think people will become hedonists? 00:55:46.292 --> 00:55:49.695 [Laughter] 00:55:49.695 --> 00:55:51.790 Americans? [Laugter] 00:55:52.184 --> 00:55:53.582 Becoming hedonists? 00:55:54.530 --> 00:55:56.762 How would I tell the difference? 00:55:57.310 --> 00:55:59.724 We could have everything we want, we have the world's reserve currency. 00:56:00.061 --> 00:56:05.171 I don't know a single college student who doesn't show up at college having made a requisite trip to Europe. 00:56:05.466 --> 00:56:09.291 That was a big deal when I was a kid. You got to love stories that start like "When I was a kid..." 00:56:09.291 --> 00:56:13.209 When I was a kid, people didn't just go to Europe when they're in Highschool. 00:56:14.256 --> 00:56:16.997 It was inconceivable that anybody would do such a thing. 00:56:17.398 --> 00:56:20.929 Am I afraid people will start acting like hedonists? Not really. 00:56:23.714 --> 00:56:28.037 The Buddha... I bet this story isn't true but I'm gonna tell it as if it is. 00:56:29.018 --> 00:56:33.852 The Buddha, apparently, asked one of his students how frequently he thought about death, 00:56:33.852 --> 00:56:38.093 and the student goes "I think about death pretty much all the time, probably 100 times a day." 00:56:38.093 --> 00:56:41.283 And the Buddha goes "You must think about death with every breath." 00:56:43.159 --> 00:56:46.422 Let's live. Let's live here, now. 00:56:46.422 --> 00:56:50.479 You all knew you were gonna die. Right? Since you were 11 or so? 00:56:51.990 --> 00:56:55.184 And you reach this understanding when you're 5 or so, 00:56:55.184 --> 00:56:58.748 apparently you realize that you're gonna die but you don't really have a chance to synthesise, 00:56:58.748 --> 00:57:02.414 to integrate it into your being. But by the time you're 10 or 12 years old, 00:57:02.414 --> 00:57:07.048 everybody knows that death doesn't do just apply to grandma, it applies to them too. 00:57:07.985 --> 00:57:10.928 And I remember, actually, when my grandmother died when I was 11 years old, 00:57:10.928 --> 00:57:13.622 and I cried for 2 weeks and I barely knew the woman. 00:57:14.584 --> 00:57:19.272 I mean, I met her a few times, she lived always away, and I didn't know her at all. 00:57:19.478 --> 00:57:24.626 And I cried for a long time, and later, much later, it occurred to me that I wasn't crying for her. 00:57:24.924 --> 00:57:26.901 I was crying for me. 00:57:27.689 --> 00:57:30.359 She was an indicator that I'm mortal too. 00:57:30.359 --> 00:57:32.552 And I hate that! 00:57:32.552 --> 00:57:36.122 I mean I don't mind that nobody gets out alive, as long as I'm an exception. 00:57:36.122 --> 00:57:37.498 [Laughter] 00:57:39.187 --> 00:57:43.001 So, the wolf is always at the door. Right? 00:57:43.001 --> 00:57:47.919 Let's act with some urgency in our lives; lets act as if the here and now matters; 00:57:47.919 --> 00:57:53.322 let's act as if people around us matter; let's act as if the living planet matters too. 00:57:53.322 --> 00:57:57.491 That's all I'm suggesting. I'm suggesting that we act. 00:57:59.577 --> 00:58:04.460 I am also suggesting that I can't imagine it will work to save our species, 00:58:04.460 --> 00:58:09.546 but as a conservation biologist I have long known that humans were gonna go extinct. 00:58:10.590 --> 00:58:12.721 I didn't know it would be on my watch. 00:58:13.586 --> 00:58:15.748 But... 00:58:17.072 --> 00:58:19.199 ...all species go extinct, 00:58:20.424 --> 00:58:22.568 including the most clever of them all. 00:58:24.535 --> 00:58:25.817 You, you with the hat. 00:58:26.099 --> 00:58:31.396 He says: Is it true that you're investing heavily in start up space travel companies? 00:58:31.886 --> 00:58:36.555 Or are you relying upon intervention by friendly extra-terrestrial? 00:58:37.168 --> 00:58:39.989 [Laughter] 00:58:39.989 --> 00:58:42.753 No, I'm not investing in space travel. 00:58:45.922 --> 00:58:51.594 I suggest that we live here, now. That's sort of inconsistent with jumping in a space-ship. 00:58:53.238 --> 00:58:55.182 And I read the Martian chronicles when I was a kid 00:58:55.277 --> 00:58:57.680 - I don't know if you remember Ray Bradbury's classic commercial chronicles? - 00:58:58.290 --> 00:59:03.990 and people were starting to kill each other in mass here on Earth, so the rest of the people decided to go on Mars, 00:59:04.747 --> 00:59:08.219 And it wasn't long that they were on Mars before they could look back and see 00:59:08.219 --> 00:59:13.739 everybody on Earth killing themselves, and by that time the process was well under way on Mars. 00:59:14.155 --> 00:59:17.950 So, we not only have to escape, we have to change human behavior. 00:59:18.865 --> 00:59:21.149 With respect to aliens, 00:59:22.849 --> 00:59:26.458 all you have to do is pretend that I'm an alien, 00:59:26.458 --> 00:59:30.711 and now convince me. Tell me why you're worth saving? 00:59:31.351 --> 00:59:33.749 Tell me why you're worth extending the run 00:59:33.749 --> 00:59:38.292 of the species that is driving to extinction 200 species a day? 00:59:39.512 --> 00:59:43.293 Tell me why you're worth saving, when you're not saving anything. 00:59:44.819 --> 00:59:47.255 If you can do that, you can have the microphone. 00:59:51.665 --> 00:59:59.822 I have 2 questions. The quick one... I kind of missed what you meant by clathrate gun. 01:00:00.445 --> 01:00:05.872 That's not my main question; that just came up from your answers to other people's questions. 01:00:08.479 --> 01:00:13.446 aah... people that I know who question climate science, 01:00:13.446 --> 01:00:19.784 aahm... one of the big arguments that they make... is.. ahm 01:00:20.707 --> 01:00:30.799 ok aah... with carbon you're talking parts per millionth, with methane you're talking parts per billionth, 01:00:32.252 --> 01:00:43.961 and they say that really the biggest greenhouse gas, the thing that can hold the most heat 01:00:44.902 --> 01:00:47.354 is water in the atmosphere. 01:00:47.822 --> 01:00:51.065 Which is, I'm not sure exactly but it's aah 01:00:51.659 --> 01:00:57.552 - That's correct, by the way. The biggest greenhouse gas is water in the atmosphere. 01:00:59.065 --> 01:01:00.410 - So... 01:01:01.149 --> 01:01:05.949 - Right. It's a little change in a little number. What can possibly go wrong? 01:01:05.949 --> 01:01:08.170 - Right. 01:01:08.265 --> 01:01:10.095 - Yeah, I've heard that one. 01:01:11.159 --> 01:01:18.668 - aahm... When you ingest Anthrax it's a little number, that has a big change. 01:01:19.674 --> 01:01:22.584 280ppm is not 400ppm. 01:01:23.502 --> 01:01:26.322 If you question the greenhouse effect, 01:01:26.861 --> 01:01:31.353 go out in your car on a sunny day, with the windows down, 01:01:32.461 --> 01:01:36.423 and it's almost the same temperature inside as out, and then roll up the windows. 01:01:37.101 --> 01:01:42.855 Like in 5 minutes is a little uncomfortable. Well, in 15 is a lot of uncomfortable and 30 minutes... 01:01:42.855 --> 01:01:47.772 - ... ??? of the car it's the window. [Imperceptible] 01:01:47.772 --> 01:01:55.423 - Right, and so this is an excellent analogy for Earth with a whole bunch of windows, 01:01:55.818 --> 01:02:01.155 and every molecule of CO2, above baseline, is rolling up a little window, 01:02:01.854 --> 01:02:05.691 and it takes 40 years for those effects to be felt. 01:02:06.657 --> 01:02:11.640 I'm not sure how to convince people who are unconvinced by evidence. 01:02:14.020 --> 01:02:16.185 There's no... I don't think there's any way to do that. 01:02:18.952 --> 01:02:21.495 - It's clear to me that global warming is going on, 01:02:22.383 --> 01:02:28.736 but the math between parts per millionth and parts per billionth and 01:02:29.905 --> 01:02:35.240 water vapor, which I'm not sure exactly but it's much different, 01:02:35.240 --> 01:02:41.851 so I have a hard time at making that math work, making it, conceptualizing it, 01:02:41.851 --> 01:02:44.675 the whole "yeah, that's what it is!". 01:02:46.745 --> 01:02:49.207 - Well, I'm not sure I can help you then because 01:02:50.857 --> 01:02:57.664 you can put greenhouse emissions or global warming or climate change in the search box, 01:02:57.664 --> 01:03:00.023 your favorite search engine, and find abundant information 01:03:00.023 --> 01:03:03.870 that is merely elucidation of what has become the scientific obvious. 01:03:04.797 --> 01:03:10.924 In 1847, George Perkins Marsh, United States ambassador and naturalist, 01:03:12.790 --> 01:03:15.905 - is it not interesting? What a weird combination. 01:03:16.237 --> 01:03:21.568 You don't see many ambassadors these days who aren't attorneys, much less who are naturalists - 01:03:21.804 --> 01:03:25.731 1847, before we started burning any fossil fuels at scale, 01:03:25.731 --> 01:03:32.236 1847, George Perkins Marsh predicted global warming as a result of burning fossil fuels. 01:03:33.944 --> 01:03:38.676 By 1896, Svante Arrhenius, who went on to win the Nobel Prize in Chemistry, 01:03:38.676 --> 01:03:45.175 predicted we would observe a 1°C temperature rise - global temperature, planetary average - 01:03:45.538 --> 01:03:48.992 by the year 2000, if we keep burning fossil fuels. 01:03:49.636 --> 01:03:51.980 The mechanism has been known for a really long time, 01:03:51.980 --> 01:03:55.576 it was demonstrated in practice by Guy Kalender, 01:03:55.576 --> 01:04:00.211 in 1938, in a paper by Royal Society, 01:04:00.211 --> 01:04:06.833 and in 1938 he demonstrated there was a significant rise in global average temperature. 01:04:07.469 --> 01:04:12.940 It was a 40 year lag, he documented that rise in about 1915, 01:04:12.940 --> 01:04:17.764 about 40 years after we started burning fossil fuels at scale. 01:04:18.472 --> 01:04:20.245 The evidence is overwhelming. 01:04:20.540 --> 01:04:22.950 If it can't convince somebody then it can't convince somebody, 01:04:22.950 --> 01:04:25.028 and I'm not interested in trying to convincing them. 01:04:25.028 --> 01:04:27.132 It's pointless. 01:04:27.162 --> 01:04:29.873 This is like the difference between trying to convince people 01:04:29.873 --> 01:04:33.472 who believe in climate change, but that it's not that bad. 01:04:39.111 --> 01:04:43.988 The burning of fossil fuels, of course, creates heat, 01:04:44.983 --> 01:04:48.710 so we've got lots of heat going on all over the place, all the time. 01:04:49.922 --> 01:04:55.818 So couldn't that heat that we're continuously introducing into the environment... 01:04:57.860 --> 01:05:01.929 be a major factor? - No. It can't. 01:05:03.279 --> 01:05:07.272 Because we turn the heat off for extended periods of time, in various places, 01:05:07.350 --> 01:05:11.636 we now removed for the urban heat island effect and for local phenomena 01:05:12.212 --> 01:05:14.855 when calculating global average temperature. 01:05:15.243 --> 01:05:19.185 We can talk about this later but I don't want to spend any more time on it, today 01:05:19.519 --> 01:05:25.167 The mechanism has been described, has been illustrated, we've known for a long time 01:05:25.684 --> 01:05:29.416 that you can't burn fossil fuels that accumulated over millions of years 01:05:29.729 --> 01:05:33.087 in the span of 150 to 200 years without consequences. 01:05:33.712 --> 01:05:36.458 We've know this for a long time. We're seeing those consequences. 01:05:36.697 --> 01:05:38.752 We shouldn't be surprised. 01:05:38.985 --> 01:05:41.319 All the way in the back. - Can we shift gears for a bit 01:05:41.547 --> 01:05:44.394 and talk about living gracefully? Can you say a few words about the gift economy? 01:05:44.800 --> 01:05:47.820 I really... that's what is near dear to me. 01:05:48.019 --> 01:05:52.021 - Sure. I live in a small valley in south-western New Mexico, 01:05:52.021 --> 01:05:57.887 where I practice and promote agrarian anarchy. 01:05:58.318 --> 01:06:02.284 Anarchy is not chaos. Anarchy is an absence of rulers. 01:06:02.284 --> 01:06:05.191 Chaos is an absence of rules. 01:06:05.191 --> 01:06:08.585 I practice agrarian anarchy in the spirit of Wendell Berry 01:06:08.881 --> 01:06:10.322 and Edward Abbey, 01:06:10.322 --> 01:06:12.284 and Henri David Thoreau 01:06:12.284 --> 01:06:16.554 and to a lesser extend, with slaves involved, Thomas Jefferson 01:06:18.405 --> 01:06:21.218 and I also practice and promoted gift economy, 01:06:21.815 --> 01:06:25.151 and that's what we did for the first 2 million years of the human experience. 01:06:25.151 --> 01:06:31.230 It was only after civilization arouse that we started... 01:06:31.230 --> 01:06:34.088 the notion of currency. 01:06:34.088 --> 01:06:36.834 Yes, fiat currency. 01:06:36.834 --> 01:06:41.032 I, almost every time I go to the store, which isn't very often, 01:06:41.032 --> 01:06:45.554 the cashier rings me up and then here she says "How would you like to pay for that?" 01:06:45.554 --> 01:06:50.049 and I bring out these pieces of green paper and I go: "You're still taken these?" 01:06:50.049 --> 01:06:52.790 They look at me like I'm crazy. 01:06:53.250 --> 01:06:55.955 I'm not rolling that out, because I've been called a lot worse. 01:06:57.154 --> 01:06:59.754 But they're still taking those, and it's all a con game, 01:06:59.754 --> 01:07:02.403 it's an unbelievable scheme! 01:07:03.189 --> 01:07:09.339 I mean... the secretary of treasury Jack Lew admitted that, last October! 01:07:09.786 --> 01:07:15.726 He said: if people want money instead of rolling over the bonds, the whole system comes down. 01:07:16.314 --> 01:07:19.716 He admitted it, it's a Ponzi scheme; right out there in public. 01:07:19.947 --> 01:07:23.392 And the American public is like: "[yawn] Can you pass the chips? 01:07:23.713 --> 01:07:25.686 What´s on today any way?" 01:07:27.324 --> 01:07:33.347 So, a gift economy... of course a gift economy works great when you're in a triangle situation. 01:07:33.878 --> 01:07:36.933 If you have dunbar's number of people, 150 to 250 people, 01:07:36.933 --> 01:07:39.115 well, then everybody can keep track of everybody 01:07:39.115 --> 01:07:45.747 and the consequence of shunning somebody is probably death for that person. 01:07:46.145 --> 01:07:51.926 Now that we've become so globalized and interconnected and dependent upon fiat currency, 01:07:51.926 --> 01:07:55.115 that then all bets are of, so to speak. 01:07:55.317 --> 01:08:00.051 But, I'm still trying to promote that, even though it doesn't do any good. 01:08:00.268 --> 01:08:01.901 It's like everything else. 01:08:02.233 --> 01:08:06.744 Why not? I propose doing everything differently, then we're doing now. 01:08:06.744 --> 01:08:08.597 - It feels great! 01:08:08.597 --> 01:08:09.619 - Yes. 01:08:09.619 --> 01:08:13.382 aaah... over here. - Thank you! Thanks for coming ??? 01:08:13.382 --> 01:08:19.753 You kind of lost me on the methane hidrates. I think that it's not kind of ??? but, 01:08:19.753 --> 01:08:26.263 aah, I was doing some research recently on... what they're calling next generation biofuels 01:08:26.263 --> 01:08:31.420 and one of them is cellulosic ethanol, the other one, that you're probably familiar with is Algae, 01:08:31.618 --> 01:08:36.752 and in the finding there´s a number of people and companies that are doing some pretty cool stuff, 01:08:36.995 --> 01:08:40.494 and I came upon one in Florida that has already ?? 01:08:40.494 --> 01:08:48.427 that they can do 10 thousand gallons of biofuels per acre per year, 01:08:48.427 --> 01:08:53.478 using salt water and the CO2 coming out of power plants. 01:08:53.816 --> 01:08:59.285 10 thousand gallons. You get about 50 gallons from soybean oil. 01:08:59.285 --> 01:09:03.611 Those are completely different things. Could that, you know, change your predictions 01:09:03.611 --> 01:09:07.390 of ????? that going? Again, they've already proven it... 01:09:07.390 --> 01:09:12.684 The company that I encourage everyone to look it up is Algenol, A-L-G-E-N-O-L, 01:09:12.684 --> 01:09:16.639 they are in Florida and they're trying to expand right now. 01:09:16.639 --> 01:09:20.724 - These are not my predictions, first of all. These are other people's predictions. 01:09:20.724 --> 01:09:23.317 I'm just relaying the good news. 01:09:23.455 --> 01:09:25.427 Providing some context. 01:09:26.391 --> 01:09:29.417 With respect to the methane, that's a second question about methane, 01:09:29.417 --> 01:09:31.543 so I should explain that a little bit better. 01:09:31.543 --> 01:09:34.787 Methane is enclosed within small cages, 01:09:34.787 --> 01:09:39.571 only slightly bigger than the methane molecule, the CH4. 01:09:39.571 --> 01:09:44.516 Enclosed within a cage and that cage is in the shallow sea beds, 01:09:44.956 --> 01:09:50.655 and when it warms, that cage with the methane starts to rise, 01:09:50.655 --> 01:09:53.544 and when it warms a little bit more the cage falls apart. NOTE Paragraph 01:09:54.476 --> 01:09:58.116 And then the methane molecules are released directly into the atmosphere. 01:09:58.116 --> 01:10:01.797 So this cages are called clathrates or hydrates. 01:10:01.876 --> 01:10:04.848 This is called the clathrate gun or the methane bomb. 01:10:04.848 --> 01:10:09.660 It appears that we´ve triggered it. 01:10:09.660 --> 01:10:13.335 Until we can undo the irreversible... 01:10:13.335 --> 01:10:18.458 Until we can reverse the irreversible feedback loops, I don´t think it matters. 01:10:18.458 --> 01:10:21.256 Furthermore, I´m not a fan of the car culture. 01:10:21.256 --> 01:10:24.935 I think the car culture is a huge part of our problem, and so... 01:10:24.935 --> 01:10:27.794 continuing the car culture... I don´t think is a good idea, 01:10:27.794 --> 01:10:34.891 even if it means carrying our cars with buffalo shit, I´m still not a fan. 01:10:34.891 --> 01:10:39.160 - So but, I mean, if we were just in a perfect world 01:10:39.160 --> 01:10:45.994 we were able to stop going for oil, stop ?????? Canada 01:10:45.994 --> 01:10:52.196 and start plugin in these ponds, start growing these biofuels that way... 01:10:52.196 --> 01:10:56.579 10 thousand gallons per acre per year, you got to admit is pretty significant. 01:10:56.579 --> 01:11:01.357 yes, I´de be interested in seing the energy return on the amount of energy investment for that. 01:11:01.357 --> 01:11:04.500 Is this tight oil, like Shell and tar sands? 01:11:04.500 --> 01:11:06.930 -No, no, this is algea. 01:11:06.930 --> 01:11:12.939 I understand, but algea to petrol is not one magic wand ????? 01:11:12.939 --> 01:11:21.324 - Oh, what it is is 9 000 of those gallons is ethanol and the remaining 1000 is about 01:11:21.324 --> 01:11:27.898 1/3 jet fuel, 1/3 gasoline and 1/3 diesel and then the sludge ??? 01:11:27.898 --> 01:11:34.025 Ok, I don´t know enough to comment. I encourage anybody who would go algenol to look them up. 01:11:34.025 --> 01:11:39.627 I´m not a fan of the car culture, of airplane culture, of maintaining industrial civilization 01:11:39.627 --> 01:11:44.845 that is making us sick, making us crazy and killing us, by any means. 01:11:45.656 --> 01:11:49.653 So, if this is another way to prop up civilization, I´m not a fan. 01:11:50.708 --> 01:11:54.058 That´s what it sounds like. 01:11:55.639 --> 01:11:58.819 Yes. -Two questions: 01:11:59.100 --> 01:12:02.972 How and when did you come to your realisations about this? 01:12:03.297 --> 01:12:10.638 And, if there is no hope, why aren´t you down in southwestern Mexico ??????? 01:12:10.859 --> 01:12:17.036 Wow, two tough questions. Pack your bag. Could we ascort this guy out? 01:12:18.103 --> 01:12:23.003 Security? Do we have security? I think it´s time we let this sucker out. 01:12:28.596 --> 01:12:32.003 Sometimes I show and we have technical problems. 01:12:32.297 --> 01:12:35.968 The first stop of this tour was in Eugene (I have a point) 01:12:39.303 --> 01:12:43.649 and I found out, one minute before the presentation beggins, I don´t have a projector. 01:12:44.471 --> 01:12:47.197 So I just did stand-up. Tragedy. 01:12:49.420 --> 01:12:53.695 So, I apreciate you humouring me with your laughter. 01:12:55.198 --> 01:12:59.631 I reached this realisation in 2002, when I was editing a book on climate change, 01:12:59.631 --> 01:13:02.589 that we were heading for extinction probably in 2030 or so. 01:13:02.589 --> 01:13:10.304 And, about a year later, I discovered the concept of global peak oil, and I realised: 01:13:10.304 --> 01:13:13.626 This is it! This is the ?????. This is the one that´s going to save us 01:13:13.626 --> 01:13:17.947 in terminating the industrial civilization. We will stop spilling emissions. 01:13:19.934 --> 01:13:22.860 And... that was a long time ago. 01:13:22.943 --> 01:13:24.432 - And fracking happended! 01:13:24.510 --> 01:13:28.912 Yeah. Fracking and tar sands. You know, everything we do to maintain 01:13:29.002 --> 01:13:32.135 this settled arrangement that is killing everything, including us. 01:13:36.883 --> 01:13:42.326 So, that was in 2003-2004 that I thought there would be a game over by now. 01:13:43.016 --> 01:13:46.684 I moved to southwestern New Mexico for a variety of reasons. 01:13:47.240 --> 01:13:50.245 One of which was that the university were I was working 01:13:50.245 --> 01:13:56.884 was just another exemple of fundamentally irredeamebly corrupt system. 01:13:57.168 --> 01:14:00.347 So I didn´t feel confortable working there anymore. 01:14:02.952 --> 01:14:07.794 I´m not there now 01:14:10.451 --> 01:14:13.107 because the project has failed. 01:14:13.422 --> 01:14:20.697 I built a platinum level doomsdead, a homestead that has 2 solar whels 01:14:20.697 --> 01:14:28.913 and a ?????. 01:14:30.141 --> 01:14:35.809 No fossil fuels are required to run the place. It´s amazing for huge gardens 01:14:35.809 --> 01:14:42.917 a large orchard, goats, chickens, ducks, turkeys and a goose named Myrtle. 01:14:45.160 --> 01:14:49.287 The most important part of the whole thing. And then she left. 01:14:49.823 --> 01:14:52.190 She went to the neighbours! 01:14:53.423 --> 01:14:57.170 They have six big ??? ducks and she´s like: "hey, this is my people." 01:14:58.068 --> 01:15:00.322 And she wondered off and she spends all her time down there. 01:15:00.322 --> 01:15:05.040 She come like one every two or three months, and she´s "quack quack quack" 01:15:05.040 --> 01:15:09.210 and the honk says "I just want to check in and say I don´t live here anymore. Screw you!" 01:15:10.694 --> 01:15:14.541 And that´s when I knew. I got to get the hell out of there, because it ain´t working. 01:15:15.238 --> 01:15:17.539 Even Myrtle wouldn´t stay. 01:15:19.241 --> 01:15:22.094 So, it´s been a complete catastrophic failure. 01:15:22.593 --> 01:15:24.708 I would rather be here than there. 01:15:24.708 --> 01:15:27.066 - Why was it a failure? 01:15:30.106 --> 01:15:31.896 - You mean, besides Myrtle? 01:15:32.487 --> 01:15:34.599 - Yeah, besides Myrtle. - I know, I know. 01:15:34.599 --> 01:15:38.144 I can´t remenber the stuff. I have to look it up. 01:15:40.391 --> 01:15:44.656 It says here in this book - it must be true because it´s on paper- 01:15:47.092 --> 01:15:48.176 Let´s see... 01:15:48.176 --> 01:15:51.496 "I left the easy life of a tenure professor in an amazing university 01:15:51.496 --> 01:15:55.098 to develop and occupy the property I called 'The MudHut', 01:15:55.098 --> 01:16:03.440 and I did that for five premiere reasons, all of which have failed. 01:16:03.440 --> 01:16:05.994 So, all the goals have failed to be met. 01:16:05.994 --> 01:16:09.893 Firts of those, I left as an act of resistance against the dominant paradigme. 01:16:09.893 --> 01:16:15.766 Guess what, the dominant paradigme and those within it failed to notice. 01:16:15.766 --> 01:16:20.571 2. I left as an example of alternative living, in my case promoting a gift economy 01:16:20.571 --> 01:16:22.526 within agrarian anarchy. 01:16:22.526 --> 01:16:25.753 My example has failed to inspire a number of significant others to live differently, 01:16:25.753 --> 01:16:28.214 to live outside the system. 01:16:28.214 --> 01:16:32.974 3. I left as a way to promote more... to provide more time 01:16:32.974 --> 01:16:36.330 (my eyes are getting worse everyday) 01:16:36.330 --> 01:16:39.880 a way to provide more time for speaking and writing about important topics, 01:16:39.880 --> 01:16:45.412 actions which were discouraged at the university where I was working. 01:16:45.412 --> 01:16:48.116 My last department head was hired specifically to make my life 01:16:48.116 --> 01:16:51.477 miserable enough so that I would leave. 01:16:51.477 --> 01:16:56.239 She´s a dean at the University of Washington now. Congratulations. 01:16:56.519 --> 01:17:02.670 I have enjoyed limited sucess in this arena, although triumph ???? not battling administator 01:17:03.069 --> 01:17:06.867 dragons has been largely consumed with vigorous physical work, 01:17:06.867 --> 01:17:10.028 like digging those damed trenches for the water delivery system. 01:17:10.028 --> 01:17:14.389 4. The place is a refuge for the youngster, the son of the couple 01:17:14.389 --> 01:17:18.118 with whom my wife and I shared this property, as well as his generation. 01:17:18.118 --> 01:17:23.477 Due to ongoing accelerating climate change, the unsure future in this location probably will be 01:17:23.477 --> 01:17:25.185 notably short. 01:17:25.832 --> 01:17:29.688 And 5. it´s a way to extend my own life and that of my wife. 01:17:29.688 --> 01:17:34.010 Due to ongoing accelerating climate change, our future in this location is likely to be quite short. 01:17:34.362 --> 01:17:38.113 So this were the 5 goals I had. The next paragraph starts with: 01:17:38.113 --> 01:17:42.088 "Perhaps most importantly there is a widenning chasm within the partnership formed 01:17:42.088 --> 01:17:45.726 in this shared property. Although leaving the life that I loved as an academic 01:17:45.726 --> 01:17:47.787 to move to a diferent location made sense at the time, 01:17:47.787 --> 01:17:51.922 long before the climate change news grew so dire, and everyone's collapse appeared eminent 01:17:51.922 --> 01:17:56.446 I now view the major personnal transition as infinitly regretable. 01:17:57.044 --> 01:18:01.622 I´ve come to see that it was the wort mistake of my life, althoug I´m not dead yet, 01:18:01.799 --> 01:18:03.995 so can yet get up and be myself. 01:18:04.413 --> 01:18:07.638 So it hasn´t worked in part because of the relations on the property, 01:18:07.638 --> 01:18:11.520 which have broken down in a somewhat horrifying manner. 01:18:12.806 --> 01:18:14.865 You know, living with people is hard. 01:18:21.190 --> 01:18:23.865 ???? that was essencially my question. 01:18:24.691 --> 01:18:28.043 When you found out that essencially we were all going to be done, 01:18:28.979 --> 01:18:31.232 ??????????????????? 01:18:31.550 --> 01:18:34.358 Of course, my reaction at the time was utter despair 01:18:34.692 --> 01:18:38.526 and I didn´t fit in particularly well in society before that, 01:18:38.526 --> 01:18:42.116 but when you start mourning events that haven´t happened yet, 01:18:42.889 --> 01:18:44.937 you´re an absolute nutcase. 01:18:45.898 --> 01:18:50.925 And so, people are mourning the death of their 92 year old grandmother, 01:18:50.925 --> 01:18:56.831 whose been hanging on suffering ???? from cancer for 3 years, and I´m like; 01:18:56.831 --> 01:19:04.322 Let it go. That´s one human being that´s had a full and rich life. Let her go. 01:19:04.322 --> 01:19:08.567 I´m mourning the near come demise of our entire species, and people are going: 01:19:09.306 --> 01:19:14.290 What? You don´t know what you´re talking about. That´s a theoretical thing. 01:19:14.290 --> 01:19:19.341 It´s so abstract. It reminds me of "Star Trek". 01:19:19.341 --> 01:19:22.119 -Yay! Somethings do. 01:19:22.119 --> 01:19:26.789 I don´t know if you remember the early days "Star Trek"... - Yay! 01:19:26.789 --> 01:19:32.829 - I got that... Yes, that´s who exactly I´m going to talk about, 01:19:32.829 --> 01:19:35.363 Mister Live Long and Prosper. -Yay! 01:19:35.638 --> 01:19:42.990 So, a ship was blown up, a vulcan ship was blown up 01:19:43.500 --> 01:19:47.127 and like 300 people died and Spok sheds a tear. 01:19:47.425 --> 01:19:50.698 A tear! It´s unbelieveble! He shows no emotions ever. 01:19:50.698 --> 01:19:54.763 And all the humans are like: "what? what´s up with that?" 01:19:54.763 --> 01:19:57.336 He says: "You people mourn the death of a single individual. 01:19:57.336 --> 01:20:02.214 I just lost 320 of my comrads, and you can´t understand." 01:20:02.214 --> 01:20:04.480 And I felt the same way, only it was 7 billion. 01:20:09.065 --> 01:20:12.933 And nobody got that either. Weird. 01:20:16.663 --> 01:20:24.830 [Imperceptible] 01:20:30.692 --> 01:20:37.578 Yes, so the question is if this climate chaos causes human extinction, 01:20:37.578 --> 01:20:41.627 will there be any animals that would be alive. Yes, I think there will be. 01:20:41.627 --> 01:20:47.565 The faster we terminate the industrial civilization, the more especies, 01:20:47.574 --> 01:20:51.672 I believe, will remain. Even if terminating industrial civilization 01:20:52.032 --> 01:20:58.252 leads to 2ºC in a short period of time, then I still think that 01:20:58.252 --> 01:21:00.757 some organisms have a chance. 01:21:00.757 --> 01:21:09.267 Here´s the thing: if we have chinook salmon next year, 01:21:10.334 --> 01:21:13.088 we might have chinook salmon in twenty years. 01:21:13.332 --> 01:21:15.962 But if we don´t have chinook salmon next year, we won´t. 01:21:17.547 --> 01:21:21.745 So, what I´m working for, is those other species, at this point. 01:21:21.745 --> 01:21:23.191 I think we´re done. 01:21:24.032 --> 01:21:27.382 But I´m working for those other species, and here´s what I´m really working for: 01:21:28.940 --> 01:21:32.964 Edward O. Wilson, Conservation Biologist at Harvard University 01:21:32.964 --> 01:21:36.303 predicts that only 10 million years after an extinction level event 01:21:36.603 --> 01:21:39.488 - there have been five, so far, we are in the midst of the 6th extinction- 01:21:39.488 --> 01:21:44.860 only 10 million years after an extinction level event, we have a vibrant green planet again. 01:21:45.035 --> 01:21:46.557 10 million years. 01:21:46.557 --> 01:21:49.568 The more seeds we can plant now, the more species we save now, 01:21:49.858 --> 01:21:55.686 the greater likelyhood that in only 10 million years, we have a vibrant planet again. 01:21:58.099 --> 01:22:02.645 Recently, like in the last two months, there was a new species, 01:22:02.645 --> 01:22:07.912 previously unknown to humanity, discovered in the sarcophagus of Chernobyl. 01:22:09.254 --> 01:22:12.026 It was a slime mold. In the sarcophagus. 01:22:13.203 --> 01:22:17.169 Ionizing radiation at that level and we can´t even kill everything. 01:22:18.145 --> 01:22:22.284 As mutch as that´s our goal. Is to kill everything. 01:22:22.761 --> 01:22:25.964 It appears that we´re not going to be "successful" at that. 01:22:26.827 --> 01:22:31.398 So, my goal is to keep as many species around as we possibly can. 01:22:35.764 --> 01:22:40.071 Do you take any comfort from quantum mechanics and dark energy and dark matter? 01:22:40.467 --> 01:22:44.012 This could be a very small sliver of what we think is real. 01:22:45.367 --> 01:22:50.168 Sure. Absolutely. I take comfort from nearly anything at this point. 01:22:55.498 --> 01:22:57.434 Dark matter maters. 01:23:03.415 --> 01:23:10.302 I´m remembering two of the past extinctions, where 60 millions and 200 millions and... 01:23:10.584 --> 01:23:12.637 55 millions and 251 million years ago 01:23:12.948 --> 01:23:22.191 what percentage of the land and sea species were ???? or lasted ??? 01:23:22.191 --> 01:23:24.478 Was like 95%? 01:23:24.478 --> 01:23:34.100 In The Great Dying, 251 million years ago, the number of taxa, the number of species, 01:23:34.100 --> 01:23:38.036 but, probably more general level, the number of genera that we lost 01:23:38.036 --> 01:23:40.275 was more than 95%. 01:23:40.275 --> 01:23:43.151 And 55 million years ago, it was more than 90%. 01:23:43.794 --> 01:23:46.762 So, it´s a huge proportion. 01:23:46.847 --> 01:23:49.752 So everything that´s here now ???? 01:23:50.422 --> 01:23:54.123 Yes, that´s right. Everything that´s here now 01:23:54.193 --> 01:23:58.173 is because those species made it through the extinction ???? 01:23:58.843 --> 01:24:05.277 So, your hope would be a 5 or 10 or 15% survival rate. 01:24:05.507 --> 01:24:13.888 Yes. If we have 0,0001% that get it through that´s better than 0,00001%. 01:24:13.888 --> 01:24:17.860 Yes, absolutely. Let´s act as if every species matters. 01:24:20.693 --> 01:24:24.732 On the higher estimates that you have though, do you feel like there could be 01:24:24.732 --> 01:24:31.247 a runaway kind of climate chaos that could lead to a similar ????? 01:24:31.247 --> 01:24:36.208 that just ???? beyond where ????? 01:24:36.208 --> 01:24:40.727 Yes, it´s possible. It´s possible that we could go Venus. 01:24:40.727 --> 01:24:49.557 In the same frame of analysis, he sugests that, by 2026, we´ll have a 160 degrees centigrade 01:24:49.797 --> 01:24:54.452 of the surface temperature. So that´s Venus, by the end of the century. 01:24:55.152 --> 01:25:01.914 It could be, but I think we should act as if that´s not going to happen, 01:25:02.785 --> 01:25:08.783 that we should act as if our future matters, that we should act as if the future of 01:25:08.783 --> 01:25:13.202 other organisms matters as well, instead of just saying: uhm, it´s done. 01:25:13.823 --> 01:25:16.257 It´s game over. Let´s party like it´s 1999. 01:25:17.476 --> 01:25:23.457 I have another question too, about what you were saying of the actual time scale, 01:25:24.043 --> 01:25:28.463 and now I know that there is some... this drought in California, 01:25:28.463 --> 01:25:31.426 and ???? food prices are going up, and all this kind of things, 01:25:31.426 --> 01:25:35.539 I kind of intuitively felt that maybe we are seing the beginning, 01:25:35.539 --> 01:25:40.252 maybe they´re not going down again, like this is.... the food prices 01:25:40.252 --> 01:25:46.327 and the accessability of food... and so I´m wondering if you think 01:25:46.614 --> 01:25:57.318 that what we´re seing now with how this affects on the food system, 01:25:57.318 --> 01:26:02.024 if that is going to be the first to get afected as far as what we will really notice, 01:26:02.029 --> 01:26:07.305 and see that the producing areas are not going to be able to produce food anymore 01:26:07.616 --> 01:26:11.192 It could very well be and David ??? writing for Fiesta Group 01:26:11.552 --> 01:26:22.022 in late 2012, as I recall, indicates that global economic collapse will be complete 01:26:22.022 --> 01:26:26.637 in as little as 3 weeks after a significantly disruption in the supply chain. 01:26:27.413 --> 01:26:33.822 And here he´s talking about supplay chain disruption, including food, or oil, 01:26:34.249 --> 01:26:38.243 or any number of other things. A significant disruption we´re 3 weeks away 01:26:38.243 --> 01:26:41.619 from terminating the settled living arrangments. 01:26:41.619 --> 01:26:46.099 Yes, I think that what we´re seing now is the result of climate change 01:26:46.099 --> 01:26:51.751 as already baked into the cake, and that because of that 40 year lag, 01:26:51.751 --> 01:26:57.785 there is little we can do, now, that will have any impact on 01:26:57.785 --> 01:27:02.089 how those changes will play out. We´re locked in to a drought. 01:27:02.089 --> 01:27:04.520 ????? for a really long period of time. 01:27:05.205 --> 01:27:10.770 It´s going to be wet and cold in the U.K. and northern Europe, for a long time. 01:27:13.517 --> 01:27:15.735 And so, yes, ???? food suply. 01:27:16.708 --> 01:27:23.566 What do you think the social impact will be, for the next 2 or 3 year, on a global scale? 01:27:24.220 --> 01:27:26.731 Social impacts of climate change? 01:27:27.536 --> 01:27:34.375 Several people, in retrospect, now have viewed the Syrian´s spring 01:27:34.375 --> 01:27:40.191 as a consequence of drought, of food shortage induced by climate change, 01:27:40.191 --> 01:27:48.507 So, if that´s a canarian coalmine, and it might be, then we could see that spreading to 01:27:48.507 --> 01:27:59.160 far wider portions of the globe. So, I read an analysis yesterday, indicating 01:27:59.160 --> 01:28:05.946 that we´re one year away from massive global scale scale food riots, 01:28:05.946 --> 01:28:11.154 because of disruptions in the food supply. Could be. 01:28:17.644 --> 01:28:19.037 I can´t hear you. 01:28:20.167 --> 01:28:24.826 [imperceptable] 01:28:24.826 --> 01:28:28.698 Ok, so, are there any counter-balancing cooling signs? Well, there are 01:28:28.698 --> 01:28:32.105 there´s at least one negative feedback I know about, 01:28:32.105 --> 01:28:38.422 one negative reinforcement ???. As the planet warms it releases more heat 01:28:38.422 --> 01:28:43.153 in the space, but as near as I can tell, that´s linear, not exponential. 01:28:44.963 --> 01:28:50.577 We are due for an ice age and the sun is dimming, 01:28:50.689 --> 01:28:58.163 and apparently it will reach it´s lowest point, in terms of radiation, in about 2020. 01:28:59.329 --> 01:29:05.078 So, we´re dimming right now. We´re overcoming the effects of a ... 01:29:05.078 --> 01:29:09.655 of decreased energy coming from the sun. 01:29:09.883 --> 01:29:14.502 What is scheduled to be an ice age, we´re overcoming that with carbon emissions. 01:29:14.922 --> 01:29:20.553 So, vulcanos anybody? I mean, they´re worth for the short term. 01:29:21.061 --> 01:29:26.895 But we need to keep spilling the materials into the air, the refelctive particles in to the air 01:29:26.895 --> 01:29:34.326 forever, and so... super vulcanos? Anybody signing up for Yellow Stone going? 01:29:36.426 --> 01:29:39.406 So, it may well take something like that to counter-balance 01:29:40.011 --> 01:29:46.090 ??????, I´m a psychologist. I remember reading some... 01:29:46.090 --> 01:29:50.256 And I´m not crazy, so... 01:29:50.496 --> 01:29:54.625 I remember reading some pop psychology reviews about 01:29:58.189 --> 01:30:02.583 educaters telling people about climate change, and if they put it 01:30:02.980 --> 01:30:09.785 in a `no way out of it`kind of perspective, the students leave feeling as if 01:30:09.785 --> 01:30:14.384 they can´t do anything about it. And when they track 01:30:14.384 --> 01:30:18.987 how they change their behaviours afterwards, they don´t change anything 01:30:18.987 --> 01:30:27.348 or, you know, recycle less. If they hear about it in a positive light, 01:30:27.608 --> 01:30:37.401 "we cand do something", they tend to do more greenish kind of stuff. 01:30:37.401 --> 01:30:43.801 Are you familiar with the study, if so, how do you... are there other things 01:30:43.801 --> 01:30:47.361 that go in the equation for you, like 01:30:47.361 --> 01:30:51.556 it´s going to go anyway so at least we could go with some dignity, something like that? 01:30:51.560 --> 01:30:56.370 I'm not familiar with the study but that never ceased me from commenting about a study 01:30:56.397 --> 01:30:59.007 just because I don't know anything. 01:30:59.393 --> 01:31:03.393 The comment about recycling, if I punch you in the face 01:31:03.417 --> 01:31:05.554 do you think it's O.K. if I apologize? 01:31:07.520 --> 01:31:10.961 No, of course not! That's a horrible thing! 01:31:11.007 --> 01:31:13.210 But we recycle... It's the same thing. 01:31:13.258 --> 01:31:15.418 Punch the planet in the face and we recycle, 01:31:15.847 --> 01:31:18.241 "oh it's good, look, I recycle, look at me..." 01:31:18.241 --> 01:31:20.721 What about reduce and reuse? 01:31:20.772 --> 01:31:23.042 Remember the other 2 R's, the ones that matter? 01:31:23.098 --> 01:31:28.668 The only ones that make corporate America any money is the recycle one. 01:31:28.709 --> 01:31:33.699 So, that's why we do that. But, it's an apology after a punch in the face. 01:31:33.701 --> 01:31:37.377 I do this for many reasons, 01:31:39.322 --> 01:31:41.731 among them that nobody else does. 01:31:43.441 --> 01:31:45.771 I think we have the right to know, 01:31:45.771 --> 01:31:48.341 and the corporate media and the corporate governments of the world 01:31:48.385 --> 01:31:51.425 are not telling you the facts. 01:31:54.562 --> 01:31:58.405 I think you have the right to know, I think you have the right to know what I know and 01:31:58.405 --> 01:32:00.806 there's a whole bunch of people who know what I know, by the way. 01:32:01.727 --> 01:32:05.097 I was contacted, out of the blue, much to my surprise, 01:32:05.160 --> 01:32:08.264 a guy you would all know if I said his name, 01:32:08.487 --> 01:32:14.704 he contacted me in December of 2012, and he says: 01:32:15.162 --> 01:32:20.633 "You got it figured out, on the climate change front; I'm buying the whole thing, 01:32:20.639 --> 01:32:24.029 and can I come and visit the the 'mud hut' 01:32:24.029 --> 01:32:28.029 because I'm moving to the Southern Hemisphere, and I want to replicate what you're doing." 01:32:28.170 --> 01:32:32.290 This guy is about my age, and I did a bunch of research to figure out if this was actually him. 01:32:33.167 --> 01:32:37.377 Because I'm thinking "Famous people don't send me email messages." 01:32:37.384 --> 01:32:42.094 So I did a bunch of research and it all matched, but still I wrote back to him and I said "Are you really you?" 01:32:42.725 --> 01:32:46.725 you know, because after he lied the first time he wouldn't lie the second time, I'm sure but.. 01:32:50.351 --> 01:32:54.351 So people know. People with lots of fiat currency 01:32:54.351 --> 01:32:59.111 are converting that fiat currency into land and homesteads in the Southern Hemisphere,... 01:32:59.111 --> 01:33:02.181 - George Bush is one of them. ...and this is not the only case. 01:33:02.295 --> 01:33:06.295 That's right. The Bush family is among them. 01:33:06.295 --> 01:33:12.405 with a homestead in Paraguay. James Cameron, the film maker, owns a whole bunch of New Zealand, 01:33:12.405 --> 01:33:15.235 and the list goes on and on. 01:33:15.235 --> 01:33:19.815 So, I do this in part because I think we deserve to know what I know. 01:33:19.815 --> 01:33:24.755 We deserve to know the facts and the models and the projections about climate change. 01:33:25.148 --> 01:33:28.448 And I don't see anybody else doing that. 01:33:29.729 --> 01:33:32.389 Yes. - Perfect time for comments. 01:33:32.389 --> 01:33:34.299 ???? 01:33:35.075 --> 01:33:38.035 Some Dallas philosophy a little bit. 01:33:43.827 --> 01:33:47.429 What we can do is become aware. That's what you're doing. 01:33:48.619 --> 01:33:52.781 I know a lot more information than I did before I came in here tonight. 01:33:52.781 --> 01:33:58.145 So the first step is to become aware and then act accordingly. 01:33:58.950 --> 01:34:02.950 I would also add to that: act if it´s the right action. 01:34:03.276 --> 01:34:06.636 Buddha said that, when he played tennis. 01:34:07.095 --> 01:34:13.365 Also, right action. So, awareness and then act accordingly. 01:34:14.039 --> 01:34:17.239 That´s the best that we can do, and it´s all that we can do 01:34:17.239 --> 01:34:18.819 and it´s enough. 01:34:19.029 --> 01:34:21.469 The Universe will take care of the rest. 01:34:21.570 --> 01:34:25.570 If we act in the Now, in the Present, we make our tomorrows. 01:34:27.447 --> 01:34:31.787 Yes, I agree. So awareness is the first step 01:34:31.787 --> 01:34:36.787 and awareness is not Nirvana. Awareness is a curse. 01:34:38.505 --> 01:34:42.255 Oh! I forgot to mention something. 01:34:42.430 --> 01:34:45.510 Now is probably the wrong time. 01:34:46.408 --> 01:34:50.408 But I don´t know if you remember this first slide. It has an asteroid. 01:34:51.049 --> 01:34:55.249 And it´s supposed to remaind me to tell you that there´s two kinds of people in the world, 01:34:55.249 --> 01:34:58.839 those who categorize people under two kinds of people, 01:34:58.839 --> 01:35:00.649 Oh. no, no, no. 01:35:01.134 --> 01:35:05.134 There are people who want to know, they want to know everything, they want to be fully aware, 01:35:05.170 --> 01:35:07.860 And then there are people who don´t want to know anything. 01:35:08.107 --> 01:35:11.477 If there is an asteroid coming, they don´t want to know about it until they´re dead. 01:35:11.477 --> 01:35:13.587 So don´t tell me a thing. 01:35:13.587 --> 01:35:17.147 Others of us want to know and I want to be out there staring the damned thing down. 01:35:17.147 --> 01:35:19.877 When it gets here, it better hit me in the nose. 01:35:20.136 --> 01:35:22.406 That´s me. So I assume that´s you. 01:35:22.433 --> 01:35:26.433 But I was supposed to start by saing that if that´s not you, now it would be a good time to leave. 01:35:26.433 --> 01:35:31.653 Now is a bad time to leave, because now you all know. 01:35:31.653 --> 01:35:35.653 It´s like that Louis CK routine, where he is talking to this 3 year old daughter 01:35:35.653 --> 01:35:39.013 and, she keeps asking him questions and finnally he starts to get frustrated 01:35:39.013 --> 01:35:42.903 and he says: because at some point the Sun will blow over and kill us all. 01:35:43.464 --> 01:35:48.264 And so the 3 year old, before the conversation started didn´t know anything, and now she knows everything. 01:35:48.733 --> 01:35:52.443 And Ifeel the same way. Now you know everything. 01:35:52.443 --> 01:35:55.063 You know that you´re going to die as so as averybody else. 01:35:55.065 --> 01:35:59.065 But you knew that anyway. So it´s not a big surprise. You´re not 3 years old. 01:36:06.136 --> 01:36:12.166 Could you talk a little bit more about the northern hemisphere versus the southern hemisphere? 01:36:12.942 --> 01:36:17.942 You´re not depressed enough, yet? Jesus, what does it take with you people? 01:36:30.144 --> 01:36:34.144 How much longer do we have in the southern hemisphere? 01:36:36.042 --> 01:36:40.042 How much longer to build a property down south? 01:36:43.333 --> 01:36:50.273 Oh. I think it´s gone. I had an answer for that. Let´s see. 01:36:50.273 --> 01:36:55.923 Malcom ??? did this analisys for the Arctic Methane Emergency Group on the ??? of February of 2012 01:36:57.229 --> 01:37:01.229 and it´s distrubing to me that this is the sort of stuff that it´s in my head. 01:37:02.698 --> 01:37:12.407 And in it he concluded that all life on Earth will be extinct by 2047, plus or minus a few years. 01:37:13.247 --> 01:37:19.387 And he said, 2031.6, plus or minus 13 years, in the northern hemisphere 01:37:20.285 --> 01:37:24.725 2047, plus or minus a similar number of years, in the southern hemisphere. 01:37:24.918 --> 01:37:28.918 So that for all like on Earth. That´s 16 years. 16 years. 01:37:29.780 --> 01:37:33.340 I think he´s wrong. I don´t think we can kill everything. 01:37:35.553 --> 01:37:39.553 I see no way that we can manage to kill everything by 2047. 01:37:43.404 --> 01:37:48.024 So, if it´s 16 years for all life, how much is it for human life? 01:37:48.024 --> 01:37:51.984 I don´t know, Is it 10 years, is it 15? I don´t think anybody really knows. 01:37:51.984 --> 01:37:56.424 But, I mean, you decided to move to New Mexico. Yeah, that was stupid, remember? 01:37:57.941 --> 01:38:01.941 I love the way you keep bringing that in, though. 01:38:03.072 --> 01:38:06.342 You were really stupid, let´s bring that up again. 01:38:09.378 --> 01:38:14.958 What is with you people, anyway? You say I´m stupid and you laugh about it. 01:38:14.958 --> 01:38:17.968 That´s a little disturbing. 01:38:18.558 --> 01:38:22.558 And that guy who isn´t a psychologist laughed. ??? go get one. 01:38:26.440 --> 01:38:35.550 So if this ???comes to pass, when and as you expect, what will you do? 01:38:35.641 --> 01:38:41.691 Will you wait around and starve to death with everyone else or do you have a plan for yourself? 01:38:41.794 --> 01:38:43.924 Is there a point? 01:38:47.287 --> 01:38:51.287 [Imperceptable] 01:38:56.148 --> 01:39:00.148 You´re just too macabre. That´s what you are. 01:39:00.432 --> 01:39:06.062 What am I gonna do? Well, I suspect where Iive, at some point, 01:39:06.062 --> 01:39:11.982 temperatures will rise, to a high enough level, that will ???? the proteins in all the planet. 01:39:11.982 --> 01:39:17.072 That´s like 125 or 120º fahrenheit, and that will ???? all the proteins in all the plants. 01:39:17.072 --> 01:39:21.842 So all the plants will die. And where Ilive those spring winds are horryfic. 01:39:21.842 --> 01:39:26.482 Starting in February and March, it´s like 40 or 50 mile ??? winds every day 01:39:26.482 --> 01:39:29.752 and it´s really quite unpleasant. Well, ????no plans. 01:39:29.779 --> 01:39:35.709 A thousand people died in the dust ball in this country, choking to death, literally, on dust. 01:39:35.709 --> 01:39:39.099 So that´s everybody I know, ???? 01:39:39.395 --> 01:39:43.895 And you will wait for that to happen, as opposed to take your on life? 01:39:58.637 --> 01:40:02.637 What´s it take to get a drink in this place? 01:40:10.914 --> 01:40:16.364 I..... It´s dificult for me to imagine a scenario in which I will commit suicide 01:40:16.804 --> 01:40:24.924 There is a young guy named Daniel ???? whio wrote an essay, in "Nature Bats Last" maybe a year ago, 01:40:24.924 --> 01:40:32.534 whose 11.300 words, which is a lot, specially in Twitter nation, where 140 characters ???? 01:40:35.363 --> 01:40:39.363 11.300 palavras and it´s just ????, it´s he´s journey, he´s ride 01:40:39.661 --> 01:40:45.581 of despair and utter hopelessness, followed by total extinction 01:40:45.902 --> 01:40:50.102 You know, just up and down, up and down, and it was horrifying, 01:40:50.102 --> 01:40:55.702 and I can summerize that essay in just 3 words: starvation, predation and suicide. 01:40:56.624 --> 01:41:02.894 That´s all they said. 11.300 words.. 11297 more than it took me. 01:41:04.265 --> 01:41:06.645 I don´t see myself commiting suicide. 01:41:06.709 --> 01:41:14.299 I eagerly anticipate seing the comeback of the living planet, if only for a few weeks or months. 01:41:15.765 --> 01:41:21.505 I think it will be awesome to see the end of industrial civilization. 01:41:24.514 --> 01:41:30.574 And yes, it will kill me, way sooner than it´s going to kill almost everybody else in the planet. 01:41:31.546 --> 01:41:37.156 Already 5 million people a year die early death because of climate change and people ask me: when it´s going to start? 01:41:38.050 --> 01:41:42.050 To the families of those 5 million people, it already started. 01:41:43.572 --> 01:41:47.732 So, it´s already in the way. I look foward for the living planet to make its come back, no matter how briefly. 01:41:47.864 --> 01:41:51.434 So I can´t imagine I will kill myself. 01:41:52.214 --> 01:41:59.444 However, there are a lot of people who have that in mind for me. So I might not escape the bullet just yet. 01:42:00.820 --> 01:42:04.820 Sometimes I think it´s good that people are ignorant because 01:42:04.821 --> 01:42:10.751 if everybody is were as ??? as we are, now, there might be panic and... 01:42:10.751 --> 01:42:17.751 ... I know you will oppose it, ???? that´s not my point of view 01:42:17.751 --> 01:42:23.071 you know, bring it on, so we can all ????? better place 01:42:23.071 --> 01:42:31.471 I just, sometimes, like... I was reading ????? They´re all like in Lala land, but, maybe it´s good. 01:42:32.709 --> 01:42:41.789 People in California aren´t freaking out, they are ???? 01:42:41.880 --> 01:42:46.720 Right. So. You´re sort of the ??? the government and the corporate media´s approach: 01:42:46.732 --> 01:42:50.732 just don´t tell them anything that maters. -Well, yeah, I guess I am, 01:42:50.732 --> 01:42:55.722 -Keep them ??? and they´ll be happy, because ignorance is bliss. 01:42:56.077 --> 01:43:04.757 Why do we have a ??? state? Why do we have a media, if not to inform? Why do we have governments if not to lead? 01:43:05.857 --> 01:43:07.977 - To steal! 01:43:09.621 --> 01:43:13.621 I hate when people tell the truth. That´s supposed to be my job! 01:43:13.908 --> 01:43:18.946 - I love being here because I am so depressed about all the stuff and it's great to have somebody like, you now... 01:43:18.946 --> 01:43:22.373 Yeah, and generate a whole community of like-minded people. 01:43:28.831 --> 01:43:32.277 People ask me all the time when I'm done "Do you own stock ???" 01:43:34.027 --> 01:43:36.368 "Because I really want to drink now." 01:43:39.314 --> 01:43:40.658 Yes Robin? 01:43:41.070 --> 01:43:46.425 So, this collapse, if you can bring if on, 01:43:46.425 --> 01:43:49.217 the paper by Brad Werner? 01:43:49.217 --> 01:43:53.345 "Earth Fucked", ... 01:43:54.119 --> 01:44:03.836 he says the only...he did a mathematical model of a couple of human environment systems, 01:44:03.836 --> 01:44:07.831 and the way the mathematical model is playing out, 01:44:07.831 --> 01:44:13.127 it is that if we wait for some top-down answer... it's not coming, 01:44:13.761 --> 01:44:18.021 and, chances are, he says, "Earth is Fucked", that's it. 01:44:19.040 --> 01:44:24.294 But... the point that's uncertain in his model is... 01:44:25.578 --> 01:44:32.789 the one thing that might make some kind of difference, I don't know if it would be enough to save anybody, but 01:44:33.513 --> 01:44:36.948 the actually only thing that might make a difference is 01:44:36.948 --> 01:44:44.313 if there is just a massive bottom-up to bring down civilization... 01:44:45.386 --> 01:44:54.515 within the next 5 years. Within the next 5 years it has to be complete or there is no - and there might already be enough - 01:44:55.014 --> 01:45:04.296 but, in his model, how do you feel about bottom-up, bringing it down in the next 5 years, 01:45:05.607 --> 01:45:13.573 would there be a way that we grow enough food for a few Adams and Eves, to keep the insanity going? 01:45:22.212 --> 01:45:24.548 ??? finally shows up. 01:45:27.317 --> 01:45:33.053 I think it's a great idea, terminating industrial civilization, has been foremost on my mind for years. 01:45:33.625 --> 01:45:37.692 Yes I think that's ingenious, no I don't think it will matter for our species. 01:45:38.717 --> 01:45:43.297 I think we're already done. We're just walking around to save on the funeral expenses. 01:45:44.804 --> 01:45:47.933 Not easy to bury a species, you know; that shit costs money 01:45:49.815 --> 01:45:51.826 And we are all about the money. 01:45:55.925 --> 01:45:58.474 Have you been filming this whole time? 01:45:58.933 --> 01:46:01.711 I said these horrible things about my ??? 01:46:02.433 --> 01:46:05.326 We're gonna have to edit that up, by the way. 01:46:10.426 --> 01:46:14.568 Thank you all for coming, I'll stay here as long as you want, don't forget to get a copy of "Going Dark"...