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It will be a short delay until I figure out
what the hell am I doing.

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Oh wait, there will be ???

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- We've got time.

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- Do we?

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"More than any other time in history, mankind faces a crossroad. One path leads to despair and utter hopelessness. The other, to total extinction. Let us pray we have the wisdom to choose correctly." - Woody Allen

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- He was kidding.

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I'm not.

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It looks like we did not choose correctly.

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After all,

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there have been no humans on Earth when the global average temperature was 3,5°C above baseline.

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2 million years of human experience,
all less than 3,5°C above baseline;

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baseline being the beginning of Industrial Revolution.

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We are headed for more than 3,5°C
above baseline, in the near future.

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Human extinction will not resolve
because we are not clever.

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It's not as if we can't handle temperature swings;

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you came from outside, inside is way more than 3,5°C,

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it's closer than 10°C or 15°C, that's not the issue.

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The issue is habitat. We´re human animals,
as with all other animals,

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we need habitat to survive
and that habitat has to include food.

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And it's difficult for me to imagine 
a world in which we'll have food,

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for humans, at say 3,5 or 4°C above baseline.

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Especially in the relatively near future
that will bring us that 3,5°C or 4°C.

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John Davis, writes at the Arctic Methane Emergency Group,
last September concluded,

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based only on CO2 in the atmosphere: "The world is probably at the start of a runaway Greenhouse Event

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which will end most human life on Earth before 2040."

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He is only contemplating one
greenhouse gas, Carbon Dioxide (CO2).

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And, as reported by NASA a couple of days ago,

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we're at carbon dioxide levels that are likely higher
than they've been for the last 20 million years.

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For 2 million years
there has been humans on the planet.

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We're at nearly 400 ppm
of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere.

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In the beginning of the Industrial Revolution
we were at 280 ppm (parts per million).

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So, this is a huge change
in atmospheric chemistry.

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If we input some of the
self-reinforcing feedback loops,

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associated with the so far
0.85°C rise in temperature,

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instead of as John Davis did, which is to ignore those
and focus only on carbon dioxide,

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if we include some of those feedbacks, according to Paul Beckwith, climate scientist at the University of Otawa,

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we are headed to 6°C within a decade.
6°C from the current level.

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About a year later, back with double down...
ok double and a half,

39
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he said that we can expect up to 16°C increase
within a decade or two.

40
00:04:01,049 --> 00:04:08,756
And he is basing these projections
on paleoclimatic information.

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So, for example,

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according to Science, one of the more reputable
journals in the scientific community,

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climate change is on track to it for 10 times faster
than at any time during the last 65 million years.

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Within that 65 million years is an event 55 million years ago,

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which is a 5°C rise within 13 years, global average.

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10 times faster than that is 50°C rise in 13 years;

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or maybe a 5°C in 1,3 years;

48
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either is enough to remove habitat
for all humans on the planet.

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It's happening, and a lot faster than most people think.

50
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A little bit more evidence, according to a paper 
on the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences,

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as one of the premier journals
in the world on science,

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from 5 years ago,

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we will remain at or above the current carbon dioxide (CO2) level for at least the next thousand years.

54
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We are at 396ppm of CO2 right now and we will be, at a minimum, with 396ppm for at least the next 1000 years.

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Contrast that with the message of 350.org

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which indicates we will get down to 350ppm
if we just use a civilised approach to it by mid century;

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the middle of this century. That's not gonna happen, it can't happen, it's physically impossible.

58
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But 350.org is not gonna tell you that.

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According to the UN Environment Programme, during 2008,

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it was the dire year of the Great Recession, remember when we started calling them "recessions",

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because the Prozac Nation
can't handle the word "depression"?

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I mean, it was a Great depression, wasn't it?
At least for me, I don't know about you?

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It was... awesome!

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At any event, it was in that catastrophic year of the Great Recession, that the global CO2 emissions actually increased

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to their highest level since we enacted
the Clean Air Act in this country, in 1980.

66
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But that was nothing compared to 2009,

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when carbon emissions increased
to a new record setting level.

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And in 2010, when they exceeded
that previous record setting level,

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likewise for 2010, 2011 and 2012,
and we just found out about 2013,

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every year, every single year, we set
new records for greenhouse gas emissions,

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and we are at the midst of a
global economic recession, at best.

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It's clear, at this point,
that civilization is a heat engine.

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And from a great paper
by Timothy Garrett in climatic change,

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"Only a complete collapse
prevents runaway climate change."

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We have know this for years.
And by "collapse", what Garrett means is

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no fuel at the filling stations, no food at the grocery stores, no water coming out of municipal taps.

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If we wanted to have habitat for humans,
in the not too distant future,

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the understanding in 2009,
when the paper was published,

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was that we needed to
completely collapse industrial civilization.

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And I don't know anybody
who sign up for that, by the way.

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And I can't imagine a politician
running on that campaign.

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I can just see,

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two presidential candidates in debate:

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"No, I can collapse it faster than you can."

85
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"No, but I can have the lights out
by a week after I'm elected."

86
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Right.

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According to a paper in the Astrophysical Journal - yes, even astrophysicists are talking about climate change -

88
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the Earth is within 1% of inhabitability.

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That's not very far.

90
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So, for the entire enterprise of astrophysicists,

91
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it was assumed that Earth was
in the middle of the habitable zone.

92
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Here is the habitable zone
for stars of different sizes.

93
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So, for a star of our size, the astrophysicists
used to thought Earth was right there,

94
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in the middle of the habitable zone,
for the entire discipline of astrophysics.

95
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But then, somebody actually looked,

96
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and discovered, last March, that actually
Earth is in the inner edge of the habitable zone,

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within 1% of being uninhabitable.

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Mars is here, Venus is somewhere distant from Earth
as Earth is form Mars;

99
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Venus is about right there,
and we what happened to Venus´ atmosphere.

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It got striped away.

101
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What this suggests is that

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with minor changes in the Earth's atmosphere,
we can go Venus.

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Well guess what! We haven't made
minor changes in the Earth's atmosphere,

104
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we have done major changes in the Earth's atmosphere.

105
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We have gone from 280ppm to 400ppm,
nearly 400ppm in CO2, in the atmosphere.

106
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That's one of a handful of greenhouse gases.
Another one is methane.

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Methane was 700ppb before the
beginning of the industrial revolution,

108
00:09:02,347 --> 00:09:06,225
it's now about 2000 parts per billion (ppb);
nearly tripled...

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00:09:06,357 --> 00:09:10,477
the level of methane, as we observed
in the beginning of the Industrial Revolution.

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How bigger deal is methane, it's about 100 times more powerful greenhouse gas than carbon dioxide,

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molecule per molecule. 100 times in the short term,
meaning less than 20 years.

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It's only about 20 times more powerful than CO2
over a 100 years or so but,

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we don't have 100 years or so.

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And finally, a little bit about that collapse, 
that Tim Garrett wrote about.

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Clive Hamilton points out in his latest book

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that without the atmospheric sulphates associated
with industry, when collapse occurs,

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Earth will be an extra 1,1°C warmer.

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Add 1,1°C to the current 0,85°C
and we're at 1,95°C, lets call it 2.

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Even collapse takes us to 2°C,

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the much dreaded political target.

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If the system doesn't collapse, we're at 2°C
within a matter of years from now...

122
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If the system does collapse,
we're at 2°C within 3 days.

123
00:10:14,784 --> 00:10:18,063
And they call us Homo sapiens, the wise ape.

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00:10:20,122 --> 00:10:24,682
Think that it should have been homo cavitus
which is the clever ape, instead.

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There's this contrarian myth
that has been floating around since 1998,

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the hottest year of global average temperature
based on land records,

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and the myth is that
the climate change has slowed, has plateaued,

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that based on land surface records,

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00:10:45,767 --> 00:10:52,261
we have seen a pause in climate warming,
the Earth's warming, since 1998.

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And in fact, based on land records that's right,
and so people wondered for a long time:

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"Where is that heat going?"
As it turns out it is going to the ocean.

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We look at 1998 and that's where
heating of the oceans accelerates.

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00:11:09,121 --> 00:11:13,424
So, we figured out about a year ago
where that extra heat is going.

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Is not going into land masses;
it is going into the ocean.

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00:11:16,960 --> 00:11:22,056
And finally, just less than a month ago, there's a paper
which came out with an explanation of that.

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The general heating of the Earths surface
has increased the winds over the ocean

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00:11:29,630 --> 00:11:35,720
and that increased wind has allowed for more heat
to be sunk deeper into the oceans,

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than was previously occurring.
If we have an El Niño event,

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a bunch of that heat comes out quite suddenly
in a short period of time.

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00:11:44,548 --> 00:11:49,218
If we don't have an El Niño event, if we have
a continuous series of "La Niña" years,

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than that heat stays in the ocean and warms up
and therefore acidifies the ocean.

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00:11:55,985 --> 00:11:59,628
Already the oceans have acidified to the extent that...

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00:11:59,998 --> 00:12:05,624
more than half of the phytoplankton in the ocean
has been killed within the last few decades.

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00:12:06,803 --> 00:12:11,627
Phytoplankton is the base of the marine food web
and it accounts for about half the food we eat.

145
00:12:12,454 --> 00:12:17,059
So, if we keep this up, we are going to
kill all the phytoplankton.

146
00:12:18,107 --> 00:12:22,700
- Doesn't that also account for about
2/3 of the oxygen in the atmosphere?

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00:12:22,990 --> 00:12:28,222
- It accounts almost 1 for 1 with land plants.

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So, it accounts for about half of the oxygen.

149
00:12:31,734 --> 00:12:35,282
And yes, it would be inconvenient
to not have oxygen in the atmosphere.

150
00:12:35,390 --> 00:12:37,758
If that's where you're going with that question.

151
00:12:37,908 --> 00:12:42,701
However, oxygen is incredibly recalcitrant
in the atmosphere, so...

152
00:12:42,881 --> 00:12:48,808
...I suspect there would be a 1000 years or more 
before we have oxygen levels drop down to 16%

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or even 15%, in the atmosphere, 
as opposed to the current 18%.

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So, there will be a huge lag after phytoplankton die,
before oxygen drops to unsafe levels.

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[Imperceptible question from audience]

156
00:13:04,678 --> 00:13:08,481
I... I don't know. 21?

157
00:13:08,786 --> 00:13:13,688
21. And 15, apparently, becomes dangerous for humans.

158
00:13:13,933 --> 00:13:18,009
So, we're a long way from oxygen being dangerous.

159
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- ??? is 11%, by asphixiation ???. Only that. Sorry.

160
00:13:28,903 --> 00:13:31,154
- Are you giving advise?

161
00:13:31,801 --> 00:13:34,901
I'm not even done yet!

162
00:13:37,023 --> 00:13:39,969
She's making a lovius called 'The End'...

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[Imperceptible question]

164
00:13:46,506 --> 00:13:50,723
The heat in the ocean helps explain why Antarctica

165
00:13:50,833 --> 00:13:54,630
and the Arctic are both loosing ice, yes.

166
00:13:54,820 --> 00:14:00,907
And in particular in Antarctica, it hasn't been observed
until quite recently that the ice is melting,

167
00:14:01,117 --> 00:14:07,264
and it's melting from below, so the surface ice
has remained approximately the same.

168
00:14:07,523 --> 00:14:11,899
But the ice is melting from below
so we are loosing ice mass.

169
00:14:12,063 --> 00:14:17,123
It's much more obvious what's going on in the Arctic;
the cover is being reduced as well as mass.

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00:14:18,890 --> 00:14:23,892
We'll talk a little bit about the 28
self-reinforcing feedback loops

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00:14:24,072 --> 00:14:28,254
that are irreversible at temporal spans
relevant to the human condition.

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28.

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And then there are 2 that are reversible,
if we have the political will.

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And we are gonna focus primarily on methane clathrates
coming out of the Arctic Ocean, because

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that one happened 4 years ago,
was reported in Science 4 years ago,

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so this is the one we know the most about,
and we know quite a bit about it, at this point.

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00:14:51,827 --> 00:14:56,302
And then I'm gonna just list the others because,
at some point...

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...there's no point.

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At some point you realize that we fired the gatling gun
and the bullets are all coming

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00:15:03,043 --> 00:15:09,714
and it only takes one to put us out, so why study
the other 9 thousand bullets we fired.

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So the Arctic hold the methane hydrates or clathrates in the shallow sea floor of the Arctic Ocean,

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which are bubbling up to the surface
and releasing the methane into the atmosphere,

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from these clathrates, these little cage structures.

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That methane in the Arctic sea floor alone is...

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...equivalent to a thousand to ten thousand
gigatons of carbon;

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versus 226 gigatons that were burned
with fossil fuels as of March 2010.

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00:15:44,713 --> 00:15:51,896
So now we are up to 260 gigatons of fossil fuels that were burned - of carbon we burned through fossil fuels -

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but, in an event,

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00:15:54,296 --> 00:16:00,648
the methane hydrates in the Arctic
are 4 to 40 times, roughly, the carbon equivalent

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00:16:00,858 --> 00:16:05,870
of all the carbon dioxide we burned so far
since the beginning of the industrial revolution.

191
00:16:06,310 --> 00:16:08,901
So... it's a lot.

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We now know that a minor increase in temperature
is sufficient to trigger the methane release,

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00:16:15,856 --> 00:16:20,516
and that's because the clathrates
are in the shallow sea bed;

194
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they're not at great depth.

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00:16:25,436 --> 00:16:31,328
A 50 Gigaton "burp" of methane is highly possible and that in tons is equivalent to more than 1000 Gigatons of carbon,

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or roughly 4 times of what we have burned so far.

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Highly possible at any time.

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00:16:37,973 --> 00:16:43,797
Methane plumes have been observed up to 150 kilometres across, by NASAs CARVE project.

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00:16:43,997 --> 00:16:50,896
A methane plume, what that looks like is...
if you're in a ship out there in the Arctic ocean,

200
00:16:51,038 --> 00:16:56,066
and you happen to be in the middle of a methane plume,
150 kilometres across,

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00:16:56,206 --> 00:17:02,243
it would be like ginger-ale bubbling out of the Arctic Ocean as far as you can see in every direction.

202
00:17:03,301 --> 00:17:06,880
You wouldn't see it for very long,
because you'd be dead surely thereafter,

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00:17:07,029 --> 00:17:09,708
because the methane is lethal.

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00:17:10,080 --> 00:17:13,869
So, take the picture... for posterity.

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00:17:16,644 --> 00:17:22,035
Based on an analysis from this one feedback alone,

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00:17:22,305 --> 00:17:26,913
we can expect global average temperature at more than 4°C of baseline temperature by 2030,

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00:17:27,089 --> 00:17:29,802
more than 10°C by 2040.

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00:17:29,947 --> 00:17:36,130
And this is what that looks like, the same cramp kinds of polynomial curve to the existing data;

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00:17:36,310 --> 00:17:43,342
It's number 3 here, and has methane going exponential
out of the Arctic Ocean.

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00:17:44,843 --> 00:17:48,905
Malcolm Light's analysis concludes that
the Gulf Stream transport rate,

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00:17:49,045 --> 00:17:53,810
or the thermo-healing conveyor belt,
which drags warm Atlantic water up into the Arctic,

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00:17:53,970 --> 00:17:59,576
started the methane hydrate or clathrate gun-firing
in the Arctic in 2007,

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00:17:59,736 --> 00:18:07,044
when the energy per year exceeded 10 million times the energy necessary to release those clathrates.

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More than 10 million times.

215
00:18:10,367 --> 00:18:14,150
So, this apparently has been going since 2007;

216
00:18:14,300 --> 00:18:18,460
I think that is a long enough time to conclude
that the clathrate gun has been firing.

217
00:18:18,630 --> 00:18:23,483
The clathrate gun is what climate scientist, including James Hanson, have been worried about for a long time.

218
00:18:23,623 --> 00:18:28,407
In 'Storms of my grandchildren', Hanson worried quite a bit about firing clathrate guns,

219
00:18:28,557 --> 00:18:31,233
or the methane bomb; and looks like we are there.

220
00:18:31,369 --> 00:18:37,306
He only know about a self-reinforcing feedback loop being triggered by looking in the review mirror.

221
00:18:37,456 --> 00:18:42,038
We have about 7 years of review mirror, at this point.

222
00:18:44,447 --> 00:18:49,690
This illustrates what Albert Bartlett, professor emeritus from Colorado University for many years,

223
00:18:49,880 --> 00:18:54,057
described in his presentation,
which he gave over a thousand times.

224
00:18:54,218 --> 00:19:00,181
He says "The greatest shortcoming of the human race is our inability to understand the exponential function."

225
00:19:00,539 --> 00:19:06,760
We think linearly, so we think that this change,
so far, has been pretty linear.

226
00:19:07,952 --> 00:19:10,955
But event's have gone beyond linear now.

227
00:19:11,123 --> 00:19:18,613
We are no longer in the linear age in terms of change in the recent past, much less in the near future.

228
00:19:22,380 --> 00:19:27,101
An example commonly used is,
in high-school classes, is:

229
00:19:27,271 --> 00:19:31,539
you have a pond and... algae, a tiny bit of algae,

230
00:19:31,689 --> 00:19:37,482
and the algae doubles in cover, everyday.

231
00:19:37,753 --> 00:19:42,862
How long after the lake is half-full before it's full?

232
00:19:43,062 --> 00:19:45,091
One day.

233
00:19:45,281 --> 00:19:50,020
That's an example of what happens
with exponential function.

234
00:19:52,393 --> 00:19:57,022
What this looks like as if about 3 weeks ago,
in terms of methane concentration,

235
00:19:57,196 --> 00:20:02,985
you see heavy concentration of methane in the Arctic and over the land masses of large continents.

236
00:20:03,145 --> 00:20:08,003
Siberia, where the methane is being released
as the permafrost melts.

237
00:20:08,433 --> 00:20:11,055
Northern Canada and all through the Arctic.

238
00:20:11,225 --> 00:20:16,553
The measurements have been up to about 2400 ppb
within the last few days.

239
00:20:16,733 --> 00:20:22,590
This is 1 of the 2 reasons that habitat for humans will disappear from the Northern Hemisphere

240
00:20:22,780 --> 00:20:25,731
before it disappears from the Southern Hemisphere.

241
00:20:25,981 --> 00:20:30,853
The other reason is that the land to water ratio is so much higher in the Northern Hemisphere

242
00:20:31,013 --> 00:20:33,427
than it is in the Southern Hemisphere,

243
00:20:33,587 --> 00:20:37,710
and land mass has heat up more than
twice as fast as the global average.

244
00:20:37,874 --> 00:20:42,489
So at 2°C rise in global average temperature means

245
00:20:42,619 --> 00:20:47,244
roughly 4,5 or 5°C rise in the interior of continents.

246
00:20:47,414 --> 00:20:51,309
In the south-western interior of a large continent
in the Northern Hemisphere,

247
00:20:51,389 --> 00:20:53,361
like, say right there where I live,

248
00:20:53,471 --> 00:20:59,143
you can expect habitat to disappear for humans
within weeks after collapse is complete;

249
00:20:59,314 --> 00:21:03,165
or within weeks of hitting the 2°C global average.

250
00:21:03,742 --> 00:21:07,905
All this water, relative to land, in the Southern Hemisphere

251
00:21:08,075 --> 00:21:12,330
provides for a great ameliorating impact
in terms of temperature rise.

252
00:21:12,470 --> 00:21:17,158
Not to mention the fact that there's this large continent down there that still has quite a bit of ice;

253
00:21:17,298 --> 00:21:21,920
in contrast to the Arctic, where the Us Navy even predicts

254
00:21:22,090 --> 00:21:26,342
that the Arctic ice will be gone by September 2016.

255
00:21:28,034 --> 00:21:34,899
That's the US Navy; the headline says: the Arctic ice will disappear by 2016, 84 years ahead of schedule.

256
00:21:35,090 --> 00:21:38,020
- [Laughter]
- 84 years!

257
00:21:38,248 --> 00:21:40,535
- I'm thinking: who wrote the schedule?

258
00:21:42,743 --> 00:21:47,515
It's ahead of... Who wrote the schedule??
Did we put that on the calendar somewhere?

259
00:21:50,078 --> 00:21:52,282
Journalists.

260
00:21:54,242 --> 00:22:00,237
That's huge, by the way. What happens in the Arctic doesn't stay in the Arctic. It ain't Vegas.

261
00:22:00,430 --> 00:22:04,637
We loose the ice in the Arctic
and things get really weird in a hurry.

262
00:22:04,832 --> 00:22:09,635
The Arctic is the planet's ice... air conditioner.
Arctic Ice is the planetary conditioner.

263
00:22:09,875 --> 00:22:12,013
One example,

264
00:22:12,170 --> 00:22:14,510
to illustrate the point:

265
00:22:14,723 --> 00:22:21,681
To melt one gram of ice into one gram of water,

266
00:22:22,191 --> 00:22:24,359
at zero degrees,

267
00:22:24,639 --> 00:22:28,757
- so they are both at zero degrees,
they are both at freezing -

268
00:22:28,957 --> 00:22:33,529
to melt one gram of ice to one gram of water
requires 80 calories.

269
00:22:34,879 --> 00:22:41,777
Take that same 80 calories, put it into the gram of water, that is now melted at zero degrees,

270
00:22:41,947 --> 00:22:46,431
put in the 80 calories,
it goes up to 80 degrees centigrade.

271
00:22:48,003 --> 00:22:51,943
When we get rid of the ice,
that heat starts going into the ocean,

272
00:22:52,133 --> 00:22:57,123
starts warming up the ocean,
instead of melting ice.

273
00:22:57,716 --> 00:23:02,912
When the Arctic ice is gone, an event we haven't
observed in the human history,

274
00:23:03,172 --> 00:23:08,494
is going to produce profound changes in the temperature,
global average temperature.

275
00:23:12,064 --> 00:23:17,593
There is one self-reinforcing feedback loop
presented in the ??? ?????? in 2010,

276
00:23:17,759 --> 00:23:23,058
and there are 4 more,
discovered and reported in 2011.

277
00:23:23,669 --> 00:23:29,009
One of those being Siberian methane, and methane was leaking out in Siberia as well out of land masses.

278
00:23:29,161 --> 00:23:32,009
It's not just out of the Arctic,
it's out of land masses as well.

279
00:23:32,242 --> 00:23:38,843
And in Summer 2010, those methane events were about 30cm, about a foot in diameter.

280
00:23:39,073 --> 00:23:42,944
And so scientists would go out and light those on fire
like these Roman candles,

281
00:23:43,134 --> 00:23:45,236
that just go wweeashhh, you know.

282
00:23:45,416 --> 00:23:49,171
Look mum, I can light a fire.
This is what scientists do to get attention.

283
00:23:49,841 --> 00:23:53,964
This summer of 2010, those methane events
are about 30 centimetres across.

284
00:23:54,114 --> 00:23:58,025
Summer 2011, they're a kilometre across.

285
00:23:58,215 --> 00:24:01,799
We're seeing geological events play out in real time.

286
00:24:02,003 --> 00:24:05,106
We're beyond linear in terms of climate change.

287
00:24:05,706 --> 00:24:11,228
So, one self-reinforcing
feedback loop in 2010, 4 in 2011,

288
00:24:11,368 --> 00:24:13,618
the 6 in 2012...

289
00:24:13,798 --> 00:24:21,298
so we are seeing an acceleration of the reporting
of the self-reinforcing feedback loops.

290
00:24:23,378 --> 00:24:28,063
And finally, in 2013, there were these 6...

291
00:24:28,363 --> 00:24:30,988
that gets us through July,

292
00:24:31,178 --> 00:24:34,735
and then there were these 6,
that gets us through September.

293
00:24:34,945 --> 00:24:39,147
And then there are these 4... so there were 16.

294
00:24:40,014 --> 00:24:43,072
16 reported in 2013.

295
00:24:43,257 --> 00:24:48,490
So far only 1 reported in 2014 but we're running
out of places to categorize these things.

296
00:24:48,700 --> 00:24:53,079
We are learning a lot more about each of these
self-reinforcing feedback loops,

297
00:24:53,269 --> 00:24:59,297
and the evidence becomes
increasingly dire and overwhelming.

298
00:25:02,811 --> 00:25:07,180
Finally there are 2 reversible feedback loops...

299
00:25:07,420 --> 00:25:10,823
...aah, we could not drill in the Arctic,

300
00:25:10,996 --> 00:25:15,472
and in fact we aren't, any more. Isn't that awesome?

301
00:25:15,634 --> 00:25:19,485
Shell went up there in 2012,
September, when they're fast tracked,

302
00:25:19,675 --> 00:25:25,329
they sent the two rigs in the world deemed capable of
handling the weather in the Arctic,

303
00:25:25,499 --> 00:25:30,394
and they were crushed.
Sometimes nature bats last.

304
00:25:30,694 --> 00:25:35,083
And they went screen back and spent the
next year and a half working on them,

305
00:25:35,243 --> 00:25:39,482
and they just announced, 2 weeks ago, 
that they're not going back.

306
00:25:41,616 --> 00:25:46,367
That the seas are too hight, that we don't have
the technology to extract that energy,

307
00:25:46,532 --> 00:25:50,028
and the energy doesn't have enough energy in it,

308
00:25:50,168 --> 00:25:54,517
the energy return on investment is so low
that it's just not worth it.

309
00:25:54,657 --> 00:25:57,107
So far; we'll see if that holds.

310
00:25:57,267 --> 00:26:01,656
An finally, if there's a way to save a buck,
we're gonna take the short-cut, right?

311
00:26:02,710 --> 00:26:05,238
One of my neighbours,
in South-western New Mexico,

312
00:26:05,408 --> 00:26:09,187
gave a presentation at a public library,
about two and a half weeks ago,

313
00:26:09,697 --> 00:26:15,873
and he was on the first ever tanker
to go through the ?? at Northwest Passage.

314
00:26:16,113 --> 00:26:22,882
1969! He was on an oil freighter, of course,
that busted it's way through the Northwest passage.

315
00:26:23,032 --> 00:26:29,570
He described the experience in riveting detail,
it was a difficult task,

316
00:26:29,720 --> 00:26:35,018
and the other boats to break out that ??
and it got stuck and... it was really tough going.

317
00:26:35,198 --> 00:26:38,183
And now is like you can go up there in your sail boat.

318
00:26:38,343 --> 00:26:42,503
Anybody in September can go through
the Northwest Passage now, it's open water.

319
00:26:42,693 --> 00:26:46,772
It was 1969, not that long ago.

320
00:26:48,629 --> 00:26:50,673
So now what?

321
00:26:51,507 --> 00:26:53,897
I like to check in with the pinguins,

322
00:26:54,087 --> 00:26:56,693
quick before we kill them all.

323
00:26:57,778 --> 00:27:02,086
There are two responses to this kind of information.

324
00:27:02,326 --> 00:27:07,949
There's the societal response, what do we do as a society,
and there's the individual response.

325
00:27:08,135 --> 00:27:11,463
And the societal response remains the same
as it has always been,

326
00:27:11,673 --> 00:27:17,603
"If the message is somehow 
we are going to ignore jobs and growth

327
00:27:17,763 --> 00:27:21,287
simply to address climate change,...
I won't go for that." (Barack Obama, 14 Nov. 2012)

328
00:27:21,509 --> 00:27:26,265
And of course not, this is again in that category
of promoting collapse,

329
00:27:26,531 --> 00:27:30,037
and no politician is going to get up on the stage and say:

330
00:27:30,297 --> 00:27:34,979
collapse is gonna save our species therefore 
we're gonna collapse the settle living arrangements.

331
00:27:38,611 --> 00:27:43,197
The Obama administration surely knew
about this briefing

332
00:27:43,357 --> 00:27:46,293
from the Alliance of Small Island States at COP15,

333
00:27:46,393 --> 00:27:49,937
the Copenhagen climate change meeting
that they threw under the bus,

334
00:27:50,127 --> 00:27:52,744
and this line comes from their report:

335
00:27:52,894 --> 00:27:58,446
"The long-term sea level that corresponds to current CO2 concentration is about 23 meters above today's levels..."

336
00:27:58,630 --> 00:28:03,586
This one were 385ppm of CO2 in the atmosphere;
we are now at 396.

337
00:28:03,800 --> 00:28:07,737
"...and the temperatures will be 6 degrees C or more higher.

338
00:28:07,896 --> 00:28:12,795
These estimates are based on real long-term
climate records, not on models."

339
00:28:12,965 --> 00:28:17,090
So there is a lag between
CO2 emissions and temperature,

340
00:28:17,280 --> 00:28:20,413
or in the past,
between temperature and CO2 emissions.

341
00:28:20,583 --> 00:28:26,096
When the catching up is done, to 385ppm of CO2,

342
00:28:26,306 --> 00:28:32,248
it's gonna produce conditions which are
unsuitable for humans to survive.

343
00:28:35,475 --> 00:28:40,433
So then, in terms of individual response, I'd like to turn to the moral philosopher Bruce Springsteen,

344
00:28:40,586 --> 00:28:42,315
for my advise.

345
00:28:42,488 --> 00:28:46,290
"In the end what you don't surrender,
well the world just strips away"

346
00:28:46,453 --> 00:28:50,442
Or lets say it like a Zen Buddhist, "Let go or be dragged".

347
00:28:50,628 --> 00:28:55,824
The near future will not be like the recent past.

348
00:28:58,470 --> 00:29:01,470
Or Carpe Diem, seize the day.

349
00:29:02,384 --> 00:29:07,031
When I speak at college campuses,
the students point out after my presentation

350
00:29:07,191 --> 00:29:09,951
that I'm pronouncing this incorrectly.

351
00:29:10,132 --> 00:29:12,633
It's actually crappy diem.

352
00:29:13,238 --> 00:29:15,766
As in "You ruined my day."

353
00:29:16,902 --> 00:29:20,647
Or from Nietzsche, "live as though the day were here"
to which I would add one thing,

354
00:29:20,807 --> 00:29:26,025
that's from the philosopher that pre-dated Nietzsche
by a couple thousand years,

355
00:29:26,385 --> 00:29:30,563
Hippocrates, from the 'Hippocratic Oath':
"First, do no harm".

356
00:29:32,353 --> 00:29:37,196
And finally, from the poet Leon Staff
in the 'Warsaw Ghetto'

357
00:29:37,937 --> 00:29:43,961
"Even more than bread we now need poetry,
in a time that it seems that it is not needed at all."

358
00:29:47,642 --> 00:29:51,446
We had science and technology for quite a long time,

359
00:29:52,456 --> 00:29:57,235
and the technology produced by
the knowledge that comes from science

360
00:29:57,430 --> 00:30:00,127
has been catastrophic.

361
00:30:00,255 --> 00:30:04,497
Let's take the window berry brow,
do some poetry now.

362
00:30:06,214 --> 00:30:08,764
I always finished like a Hollywood movie.

363
00:30:09,452 --> 00:30:11,644
I have really good news...

364
00:30:11,772 --> 00:30:16,072
You get to die.
[DNA assures our unique stature (i.e., you get to die)]

365
00:30:16,198 --> 00:30:18,400
Isn't that awesome?

366
00:30:18,490 --> 00:30:21,458
It is, it means you got to live;
and the odds against you living,

367
00:30:21,608 --> 00:30:24,756
the odds against this collection of DNA being present,

368
00:30:24,926 --> 00:30:31,960
exceed the odds against plucking at random
a single atom from the entire Universe.

369
00:30:32,970 --> 00:30:37,211
We know a lot about DNA, we know roughly how many atoms there are in the Universe:

370
00:30:37,346 --> 00:30:41,275
between 10^80 and 10^100 atoms in the universe.

371
00:30:41,436 --> 00:30:44,965
The odds against you being here,
you being in this physical form,

372
00:30:45,105 --> 00:30:49,095
your DNA appearing in this collection,
in this human body,

373
00:30:49,285 --> 00:30:56,102
any time, ever, exceed by far the odds against plucking a single atom from the entire Universe.

374
00:30:56,286 --> 00:31:00,496
If I believed in miracles I would think we all were one.

375
00:31:00,785 --> 00:31:04,061
It's incredible! We get to die.

376
00:31:04,261 --> 00:31:07,159
And that means, we get to live.

377
00:31:07,829 --> 00:31:10,840
As the evolutionary biologist Richard Dawkins said:

378
00:31:11,010 --> 00:31:15,833
"In the teeth of these stupefying odds,
it is you and I that are privileged to be here,

379
00:31:15,953 --> 00:31:20,707
privileged with eyes to see where we are
and brains to wonder why."

380
00:31:20,883 --> 00:31:22,726
Nobody else gets to do this.

381
00:31:22,896 --> 00:31:25,190
And I'll add something else:

382
00:31:26,059 --> 00:31:28,502
We are here at the end.

383
00:31:28,733 --> 00:31:32,156
Everybody else you've ever known
checked out before the movie was over.

384
00:31:32,255 --> 00:31:33,328
- Oh shit!

385
00:31:33,465 --> 00:31:36,736
- And we get to be here AT THE END.

386
00:31:37,511 --> 00:31:40,479
If that isn't awesome I don't know what is.

387
00:31:42,814 --> 00:31:49,344
And this is amazing because we are the last human beings to get to display our humanity,

388
00:31:49,535 --> 00:31:53,444
to get to demonstrate the best
of what it means to be human.

389
00:31:54,089 --> 00:31:57,108
We get to act as if we're in hospice
because we are.

390
00:31:57,436 --> 00:32:00,172
Because the whole planet is at this point,

391
00:32:00,372 --> 00:32:05,242
including the species that remain, after we drive 200 species to extinction every day.

392
00:32:05,465 --> 00:32:07,353
The whole planet is in hospice.

393
00:32:07,502 --> 00:32:11,314
When I see people in hospice
I don't see people grumping for another dollar.

394
00:32:11,514 --> 00:32:13,663
I see people giving things away.

395
00:32:13,778 --> 00:32:17,600
I don't see people hoarding,
I see people giving of themselves.

396
00:32:17,810 --> 00:32:20,885
I see people acting with kindness and compassion,

397
00:32:21,045 --> 00:32:23,856
and going out with some ??? of dignity.

398
00:32:24,966 --> 00:32:26,542
Let's try that!

399
00:32:26,688 --> 00:32:30,002
Even if all the data are wrong; even if I'm wrong.

400
00:32:31,331 --> 00:32:33,530
Wouldn't that be something?

401
00:32:33,673 --> 00:32:37,043
Wouldn't that be a pretty reasonable way to live?

402
00:32:37,591 --> 00:32:39,225
I think so.

403
00:32:39,426 --> 00:32:42,154
But I've been called some funny names.

404
00:32:42,353 --> 00:32:46,730
Things that we might pursue in hospice,
and here is the typical CEO response:

405
00:32:46,900 --> 00:32:51,636
"And so, while the end-of-the-world scenario
will be rife with unimaginable horrors,

406
00:32:51,796 --> 00:32:56,874
we believe that the pre-end period will be filled with unprecedented opportunities for profit."

407
00:32:57,441 --> 00:33:00,684
[Laughter]

408
00:33:00,970 --> 00:33:03,888
So, this is the Goldman Sachs approach.

409
00:33:04,039 --> 00:33:06,669
I mean, this is ???

410
00:33:07,118 --> 00:33:09,056
and Jamie Diamond,

411
00:33:09,216 --> 00:33:15,359
and the people who apparently just love money
so much that they must have more.

412
00:33:15,522 --> 00:33:19,115
This is the 85 people on the planet...

413
00:33:19,410 --> 00:33:25,617
...who have much net financial worth as...
half of the people in the planet.

414
00:33:27,391 --> 00:33:31,735
But I don't think this would be anybody in this room
or you wouldn't be in this room.

415
00:33:31,869 --> 00:33:33,918
There's money to be made out there.

416
00:33:34,058 --> 00:33:37,732
Still money to be made in planetary destruction;
get out there and get after it!

417
00:33:37,872 --> 00:33:40,538
No, I don't think this is us.I think...

418
00:33:40,728 --> 00:33:44,623
I think we are the people who actually might be interested in pursuing something different than that,

419
00:33:44,773 --> 00:33:49,847
something other than fiat currency, like:
we might pursue love, in lives of excellence.

420
00:33:50,460 --> 00:33:54,989
And by lives of excellence I am thinking here
of Socrates and his approach.

421
00:33:55,181 --> 00:33:58,107
He spent an entire life asking 6 questions.

422
00:33:58,289 --> 00:34:03,667
6 questions! That's all, he just went around asking people questions; 6 questions at various forms.

423
00:34:04,316 --> 00:34:06,428
What is courage?

424
00:34:06,578 --> 00:34:08,344
What is good?

425
00:34:08,574 --> 00:34:10,426
What is justice?

426
00:34:10,536 --> 00:34:13,892
What is moderation? What is piety? What is virtue?

427
00:34:14,013 --> 00:34:15,604
6 questions.

428
00:34:15,766 --> 00:34:19,326
After 7 years they killed him for it.
We should be so lucky.

429
00:34:20,138 --> 00:34:23,942
To ????? so much that we... just by asking questions,

430
00:34:24,132 --> 00:34:27,078
the state can't tolerate us anymore.

431
00:34:27,249 --> 00:34:31,126
What a way to go! Nobody gets out alive.

432
00:34:31,595 --> 00:34:34,743
So that's a life of excelence; and pursuing love,
pursuing those we love.

433
00:34:34,903 --> 00:34:38,834
I´m thinking about your children, your grandchildren, 
the people you love spending time with,

434
00:34:38,984 --> 00:34:43,664
and I'm also thinking about the living planet
that sustains us all.

435
00:34:43,984 --> 00:34:48,986
It's a living planet that allows us to live.
Not the other way around.

436
00:34:51,646 --> 00:34:55,140
I used to say, before the great recession really kicked in,

437
00:34:55,510 --> 00:34:59,266
that if you think the economy
is more important then the environment,

438
00:34:59,426 --> 00:35:02,538
try holding your breath while counting your money.

439
00:35:03,238 --> 00:35:06,159
But then I'd speak in Michigan
and people would pull out their wallet,

440
00:35:06,329 --> 00:35:10,464
while holding their breath, and put it back in and say:
"what else do you got?"

441
00:35:11,403 --> 00:35:13,962
They didn't take but a couple of minutes.

442
00:35:14,122 --> 00:35:17,270
Because in Michigan they're in the front line of collapse.

443
00:35:18,289 --> 00:35:21,008
I think we can do better than what we've been doing.

444
00:35:22,654 --> 00:35:26,631
Occasionally people despair,
while hearing me speak...

445
00:35:27,342 --> 00:35:29,492
[Laughter]

446
00:35:30,698 --> 00:35:33,227
Astonishing, I know.

447
00:35:33,378 --> 00:35:36,655
Or from the ??? ???: "Inconceivable!"

448
00:35:38,238 --> 00:35:41,751
To which I respond:
The action is the antidote to despair.

449
00:35:41,909 --> 00:35:45,807
Even if, especially if,

450
00:35:47,238 --> 00:35:49,900
our actions don't matter in the long run.

451
00:35:50,080 --> 00:35:55,071
What better judge of our character
than our willingness and ability to act?

452
00:35:55,272 --> 00:35:59,517
I once read that the best judgement of a man's character - obviously this wasn't written by a man -

453
00:35:59,658 --> 00:36:04,421
the best judgement of a man's character is what he can do for those who do nothing for him.

454
00:36:04,559 --> 00:36:09,624
What he does for those who can do nothing for him.

455
00:36:10,208 --> 00:36:13,883
So think about that. Think about people
who can't do nothing for you.

456
00:36:14,040 --> 00:36:19,081
You have power over them, and yet you treat them with kindness and dignity and compassion.

457
00:36:19,241 --> 00:36:23,318
And we can do that... about everything.

458
00:36:23,528 --> 00:36:28,358
It's not just about our character, it's about everything we do; it's about our humanity.

459
00:36:28,511 --> 00:36:31,310
Action is the antidote to despair.

460
00:36:31,500 --> 00:36:36,457
Is iconoclastic, ??????? pointed out
years and years ago

461
00:36:37,670 --> 00:36:41,595
So, if you're damned if you do
and damned if you don't,

462
00:36:41,772 --> 00:36:44,886
then do! What do you got to loose?

463
00:36:45,046 --> 00:36:47,105
What do we got to loose?

464
00:36:47,275 --> 00:36:49,820
Let's do something!

465
00:36:50,942 --> 00:36:54,897
Even if ultimately it wont make any difference.

466
00:36:55,329 --> 00:37:00,225
We are judged only by ourselves.
There is no History left to judge us anymore.

467
00:37:04,359 --> 00:37:07,761
If you wanna learn more about my writting,

468
00:37:08,159 --> 00:37:11,663
and how could you not,
[Laughter]

469
00:37:13,679 --> 00:37:18,458
I write profusely at 'Nature Bats Last', guymcpherson.com

470
00:37:18,604 --> 00:37:24,201
and I write a monthly essay for 'Transition Voice since the ??? was found dead about 4 years ago,

471
00:37:24,386 --> 00:37:29,583
and my latest effort is with a couple
of other teachers and homesteaders

472
00:37:29,833 --> 00:37:33,340
in preparing people for an ambiguous future.

473
00:37:36,816 --> 00:37:40,927
Finally, my latest book is called 'Going Dark',
and I have copies here.

474
00:37:41,080 --> 00:37:45,437
I promote in practice a gift economy, which means
you can just take one if you want.

475
00:37:45,607 --> 00:37:49,964
There are also bookmarks; laminated bookmarks.

476
00:37:50,114 --> 00:37:53,281
And the bookmarks have, most importantly,

477
00:37:53,421 --> 00:37:56,308
this url on them.

478
00:37:56,498 --> 00:38:00,894
So, there's an essay in 'Going Dark' that starts on page 85,

479
00:38:01,094 --> 00:38:06,270
that describes the dire nature of the climate situation. 
I've only given just a brief overview here.

480
00:38:06,570 --> 00:38:13,482
And all this information can be found with links, at:
guymcpherson.com/climate-chaos/

481
00:38:13,645 --> 00:38:19,652
That url is on these bookmarks, so by all means
take a bookmark, take a book,

482
00:38:19,832 --> 00:38:24,883
if you wanna give me a gift back
you can give me fiat currency, but...

483
00:38:25,572 --> 00:38:28,467
but I'm not asking for that.
If you want, give me a gift.

484
00:38:28,612 --> 00:38:32,910
Sometimes when I speak at college campuses, nobody has any money, of course specially college students;

485
00:38:33,070 --> 00:38:37,247
they owe their entire life savings,
forever, to the federal government,

486
00:38:37,377 --> 00:38:39,889
just for the privilege of going to school,

487
00:38:40,079 --> 00:38:43,200
so, frequently they give me pieces of art.

488
00:38:43,777 --> 00:38:48,337
But, last time that I spoke in a college campus
it was in Winnipeg,

489
00:38:48,556 --> 00:38:53,257
and I complained that I would sign books
but I don't have a pen,

490
00:38:53,421 --> 00:38:56,837
and so the first guy says "Here,
you can have my pen. I'll take a book."

491
00:38:56,987 --> 00:39:00,560
So, sounds great! Thoughtfull.
Some people are clever.

492
00:39:02,659 --> 00:39:06,926
I would be... ecstatic
to entertain your questions, or comments,

493
00:39:07,097 --> 00:39:10,205
and at this point, of course,
answers are particularly welcome.

494
00:39:10,370 --> 00:39:14,446
Thank you very much attention and,
please, lets have a discussion.

495
00:39:14,727 --> 00:39:21,342
[Applause]

496
00:39:22,209 --> 00:39:24,501
Thank you! Can we turn the lights up?

497
00:39:24,956 --> 00:39:26,693
All the way in the back there?

498
00:39:26,937 --> 00:39:32,027
- Do you see any possibilities for a mass-scale investment in carbon sequestration,

499
00:39:32,027 --> 00:39:37,239
soils, trees, plants,
in a time scale that could make a difference?

500
00:39:39,816 --> 00:39:43,656
I heard a trillion tree programme ??? ???

501
00:39:44,040 --> 00:39:50,459
- Right... - ...and soils; those sequestred
in a time frame that may yet be relevant?

502
00:39:50,856 --> 00:39:52,727
- No. - O.K.

503
00:39:53,065 --> 00:39:56,284
- And a primary reason for that is...

504
00:39:56,284 --> 00:40:01,870
it's gonna require an enormous amount
of fossil fuel energy to plant trees,

505
00:40:01,870 --> 00:40:06,803
and to transport the water to the desert where that project proposes planting those trees.

506
00:40:08,932 --> 00:40:15,547
In addition, the time is so short,
we are talking a decade and a half.

507
00:40:16,571 --> 00:40:21,454
To implement change, trees just are not gonna grow that fast and sequester that much carbon.

508
00:40:21,753 --> 00:40:24,354
In addition, they are carbon neutral.

509
00:40:25,432 --> 00:40:29,695
You plant the trees, they grow, they sequester the carbon, and then what happens for them?

510
00:40:29,992 --> 00:40:34,349
- They die. - That's right, they die, and almost all that carbon is released back up to the atmosphere.

511
00:40:34,349 --> 00:40:39,248
They fix some in the soils, in ???, depends on the ecosystem how much they fix in the soils...

512
00:40:39,248 --> 00:40:44,889
But I don't see that; and I read about this data that this essay, with few likes.

513
00:40:45,786 --> 00:40:49,807
Aaahm... right up here. Maybe not.
Go ahead.

514
00:40:50,103 --> 00:40:56,805
- Did you say that link that...That link will have information from your presentation, or?

515
00:40:56,805 --> 00:41:03,586
- Yes. All the information I presented here
is included there, and there´s links to everything I said.

516
00:41:03,586 --> 00:41:04,682
- O.K.

517
00:41:04,682 --> 00:41:11,343
- So, this is the single best source of what's going on
in the real world of climate change.

518
00:41:12,023 --> 00:41:16,916
-O.K. I have a second question.Earlier you were talking about positive feedback loops,

519
00:41:17,335 --> 00:41:23,357
and I was just wondering if the ones you listed, you said there was two that we could change,

520
00:41:23,357 --> 00:41:26,057
'reversible', and there were 16, was it?

521
00:41:26,057 --> 00:41:29,322
- 28. - Oh, 28, yeah, right, yeah.

522
00:41:29,322 --> 00:41:34,653
The ones you listed... I mean... what about like...

523
00:41:35,258 --> 00:41:39,385
the plankton that dies and
the carbon that's released from that,

524
00:41:39,385 --> 00:41:42,992
and that's like a sink, and then like the... I don't know...

525
00:41:42,992 --> 00:41:47,785
- I love it when I´m the most
optimistic person in the room!

526
00:41:47,785 --> 00:41:49,956
[Laughter]
-Yeah, and then there's a...

527
00:41:49,956 --> 00:41:54,476
- Yeah, these are the ones that are reported in sort of the mainstream scientific arena.

528
00:41:54,891 --> 00:41:59,688
And there may well be others that people haven't thought over, that we haven't documented yet.

529
00:42:00,044 --> 00:42:03,670
Like the fact that all those phytoplanktons are gonna die

530
00:42:03,670 --> 00:42:07,424
and are gonna be unable
to fix the carbon they're fixing now.

531
00:42:07,997 --> 00:42:09,106
- Right.

532
00:42:09,811 --> 00:42:12,137
- Yeah. You're a happy good lucky guy, I can tell.

533
00:42:12,715 --> 00:42:15,125
You love the fun of the party, aren't you?
[Laughter]

534
00:42:15,816 --> 00:42:22,494
- I have read climate scientists who don't ??? ??? 
I read Hanson, Kevin Anderson...

535
00:42:22,494 --> 00:42:29,359
none of them, so far that I have known, predict that human beings are gong to be extinct in 15 years

536
00:42:29,621 --> 00:42:32,577
[imperceptible]

537
00:42:33,027 --> 00:42:35,331
- Yes, that's right

538
00:42:35,720 --> 00:42:38,858
- Why?. What facts do you have
that we're not hearing from other scientists?

539
00:42:39,092 --> 00:42:43,229
- Almost nobody is willing to admit
that the clathrate gun has been fired.

540
00:42:43,421 --> 00:42:47,473
That includes Hanson. Although Hanson made
a major shift within the last month.

541
00:42:47,669 --> 00:42:53,398
Up until a month ago, he said that
2°C is a relevant target,

542
00:42:53,675 --> 00:42:59,061
and less than a month ago, he said 1°C; we can not possibly go beyond 1°C.

543
00:42:59,061 --> 00:43:05,202
As we've known since the United Nations (UN) 
greenhouse gas task force reported,

544
00:43:05,202 --> 00:43:09,382
in October 1990, that we can't go over 1°C
or it's gonna be utter catastrophe.

545
00:43:09,382 --> 00:43:14,478
Well, it turns out that we have our utter catastrophe with the self-reinforcing feedback loops at .85

546
00:43:14,977 --> 00:43:16,847
Earlier than expected.

547
00:43:16,847 --> 00:43:20,004
Kevin Anderson is the guy in the UK that doesn't fly,

548
00:43:20,004 --> 00:43:25,578
...and he is the person who comes
the closest to anybody I know

549
00:43:25,578 --> 00:43:28,059
who still has a job who speaks truth to power.

550
00:43:29,022 --> 00:43:32,439
So, I have great respect for him
and great respect for James Hanson,

551
00:43:32,439 --> 00:43:35,564
although James Hanson is still on the nuclear phase

552
00:43:35,564 --> 00:43:40,174
unaware that recent scientific
literature indicates that

553
00:43:40,174 --> 00:43:46,632
nuclear power plants are not carbon neutral,
they actually produce fossil fuel carbon

554
00:43:46,812 --> 00:43:52,405
to build them, and get them going; over their life span,
they are carbon intensive.

555
00:43:53,370 --> 00:43:57,836
So, I think Hanson is behind the time.

556
00:43:59,586 --> 00:44:02,474
Yes, he has been outspoken for a long time,

557
00:44:02,474 --> 00:44:05,801
but I don't think he has kept up
with the relevant literature.

558
00:44:07,914 --> 00:44:10,638
- What are your thoughts about Fukushima?

559
00:44:10,638 --> 00:44:13,303
- What are my thoughts about Fukushima?

560
00:44:14,503 --> 00:44:16,720
I think it was probably a bad idea.

561
00:44:17,138 --> 00:44:20,072
[Laughter]

562
00:44:21,271 --> 00:44:23,805
I wasn't done with my sentence...

563
00:44:26,754 --> 00:44:32,358
Who's that actor? That guy... when he gets a script he throws out all the punctuation?

564
00:44:32,358 --> 00:44:34,788
[Imperceptable]

565
00:44:34,788 --> 00:44:36,402
Maybe him too, but it´s not...

566
00:44:36,402 --> 00:44:38,166
Christopher Walken!

567
00:44:38,166 --> 00:44:41,142
Christopher Walken throws out the punctuation
and that's why...

568
00:44:41,441 --> 00:44:44,903
he has these unusual gaps in the way he speaks.

569
00:44:44,903 --> 00:44:47,854
He doesn't make a lot of sense, sometimes.

570
00:44:47,955 --> 00:44:50,493
He's a funny guy!

571
00:44:50,493 --> 00:44:53,192
But I digress.

572
00:44:53,477 --> 00:44:56,291
I think it's a bad idea to...

573
00:44:56,927 --> 00:45:03,488
...to implement a programme so that we can boil water

574
00:45:04,126 --> 00:45:08,598
without having the slightest clue
of what to do with the waste product.

575
00:45:09,502 --> 00:45:13,985
Waste products that last millions of years,
in the case of plutonium.

576
00:45:13,985 --> 00:45:18,821
There has never been a human structure
to last longer than 50 thousand years.

577
00:45:19,790 --> 00:45:23,622
We're so filled with uberess that we think "oh, we'll fix that; we'll solve that later."

578
00:45:23,622 --> 00:45:27,946
So in 1939, when the nuclear age begin, we just assumed someone would fix that down the road.

579
00:45:27,946 --> 00:45:30,918
Guess what, nobody fixed it.

580
00:45:31,883 --> 00:45:37,553
There is a paper presented at
American Geophysical Union meetings...

581
00:45:38,401 --> 00:45:41,562
aahm, Robin: what's the guy's name?
- Brad Werner.

582
00:45:42,137 --> 00:45:47,055
Brad Werner; if he was in Germany it would be Verner.
But he's Brad Werner.

583
00:45:47,055 --> 00:45:51,030
And the title of his talk was "Is Earth Fucked".

584
00:45:51,688 --> 00:45:52,821
[Laughter]

585
00:45:54,295 --> 00:45:57,792
And I think he.... yeah. I mean he did answered it.

586
00:45:58,745 --> 00:46:02,024
But it's pretty clear that because of cluster Fukushima...

587
00:46:03,255 --> 00:46:06,768
somewhere such events, I mean, 
just consider Fukushima,

588
00:46:06,768 --> 00:46:15,558
which according to Hellen Calicut, Arnic Anderson 
and David Suzuki and other nuclear folks,

589
00:46:15,558 --> 00:46:23,334
Fukushima alone represents a significant threat
to human habitat in the Northern Hemisphere.

590
00:46:23,509 --> 00:46:26,761
There is four hundred and forty some
nuclear power plants around the world

591
00:46:27,055 --> 00:46:31,820
and so if we collapse the settled living arrangements,
if we stop,

592
00:46:31,820 --> 00:46:35,763
if we get that president that stands up and says 
"I'm gonna have lights out by the day after tomorrow",

593
00:46:36,314 --> 00:46:40,164
and we actually pull that off, 
than we could have stopped runaway greenhouse,

594
00:46:40,164 --> 00:46:42,630
if we did that like 40 years ago,

595
00:46:42,630 --> 00:46:45,810
but,then all the nuclear power plants
in the world melted out,

596
00:46:46,638 --> 00:46:48,726
so that's gonna be inconvenient.

597
00:46:50,502 --> 00:46:52,367
- Why would they melt down?

598
00:46:52,744 --> 00:46:55,842
Because they rely upon grid tie electricity

599
00:46:55,842 --> 00:46:59,738
to maintain the circulation of the water
through the cooling ponds.

600
00:47:00,227 --> 00:47:08,310
Until those spent few rods spend years in this cooling ponds

601
00:47:08,310 --> 00:47:12,530
and then are stored into dry cask storage,
they're dangerous.

602
00:47:13,719 --> 00:47:16,424
So, they're dangerous for a long time.

603
00:47:16,424 --> 00:47:21,384
There was a panel in New York City late last year,
including Ralph Nader

604
00:47:21,384 --> 00:47:25,502
and the most recent ex-head of the Nuclear Regulatory Commission in the United States,

605
00:47:25,502 --> 00:47:30,126
and they were asked, at the very end of the panel, how long it would take to decommission Indian Point,

606
00:47:30,126 --> 00:47:34,233
the new nuclear power plant right outside New York City. And they hummed and hummed, refusing to answer.

607
00:47:34,233 --> 00:47:39,390
And finally, they were badgered long enoug that they had to come with an answer. They said 6 decades...

608
00:47:40,399 --> 00:47:42,627
to shut down Indian Point.

609
00:47:44,310 --> 00:47:46,228
6 decades...

610
00:47:48,222 --> 00:47:49,808
It's a long time!

611
00:47:50,111 --> 00:47:52,510
Forever is a long time,
especially towards the end.

612
00:47:53,406 --> 00:48:00,039
- A difficult question. I have read a novel about global warming and it described a lot of what you are saying,

613
00:48:00,039 --> 00:48:06,764
but I also struggle with this idea, we have a mythology that human beings are this sort of alien presence

614
00:48:06,764 --> 00:48:11,966
and we're doing this terrible thing to nature. 
And to point a fact: we are nature.

615
00:48:11,966 --> 00:48:16,242
There is nothing outside of nature
and we are exactly what nature is doing.

616
00:48:16,242 --> 00:48:20,993
And, you know, if I go over Phoenix,
or looking at what's going on in China,

617
00:48:20,993 --> 00:48:24,900
it seems like it's nature doing this;

618
00:48:24,900 --> 00:48:30,491
and from your philosophical side... because often we want to demonize people for going to Disneyland

619
00:48:30,491 --> 00:48:37,510
or driving a SUV, but you know what? Usually is, in many cases, their best human emotions,

620
00:48:37,779 --> 00:48:41,646
they want their families safe so, out of love they think and consider these things safe,

621
00:48:41,646 --> 00:48:45,698
but of course, wont, but they're going to Disneyland because they are doing it for their kids.

622
00:48:45,698 --> 00:48:50,329
So you are working against something so fundamental in the human experience,

623
00:48:50,329 --> 00:48:55,571
that it's also, probably, the best art
that people experience themselves.

624
00:48:55,571 --> 00:48:59,550
and to tell them "now you are wrong;
now you're destroying everything

625
00:48:59,550 --> 00:49:03,761
when you're an abomination to all of nature"
it's a very difficult thing philosophicaly.

626
00:49:03,761 --> 00:49:10,956
So I'd like to know your philosopher side; if we are nature... and we didn't come from another planet,

627
00:49:10,956 --> 00:49:14,687
we are doing what nature wants done here.

628
00:49:14,687 --> 00:49:18,171
- Anybody familiar with Lucy Kay? Comediant.
- Oh Yeah!

629
00:49:18,171 --> 00:49:20,260
- Social character, Lucy Kay? I love this.

630
00:49:20,260 --> 00:49:25,784
The one on Indians? This one little one minute clip
on Indians, it's awesome.

631
00:49:25,784 --> 00:49:29,743
He says "Sometimes I think people came from like another planet." That's how he starts.

632
00:49:29,743 --> 00:49:32,611
So, they were just that alien.

633
00:49:33,659 --> 00:49:35,855
But no, we are in fact part of nature.

634
00:49:35,855 --> 00:49:39,877
We act as if we are apart from nature,
instead of a part of nature,

635
00:49:40,569 --> 00:49:42,673
but we're definitely a part of nature.

636
00:49:43,275 --> 00:49:46,135
And we are the mutant part.

637
00:49:46,522 --> 00:49:50,676
2 million years human beings lived on the planet without going and taking a population overshoot.

638
00:49:50,676 --> 00:49:56,205
2 million years humans lived on the planet, at the global level, without going to human population overshoot.

639
00:49:56,205 --> 00:50:04,375
2 million years we lived in... in systems, in social systems,

640
00:50:04,375 --> 00:50:09,572
that did not allow for degradation of human habitat.

641
00:50:10,041 --> 00:50:13,870
And then, a few thousand years ago
we discovered civilization

642
00:50:14,159 --> 00:50:18,985
and civilization grew several times, more or less, ...several places, more or less simultaneously

643
00:50:18,985 --> 00:50:24,551
and from then it's all have been a wild drive, 
we were immediately in overpopulation overshoot

644
00:50:24,551 --> 00:50:28,371
and started destroying water and fouling the air and washing the soil into the ocean,

645
00:50:28,371 --> 00:50:31,338
and all that stuff we have been doing since then,

646
00:50:31,338 --> 00:50:34,272
furthermore ???? up human population overshoot,

647
00:50:34,272 --> 00:50:37,069
in the rate of 207 thousand or so people a day,
that's ???

648
00:50:37,069 --> 00:50:44,268
so, if you're looking for fault, for blame, it's not you and me.

649
00:50:44,268 --> 00:50:47,844
It's these settled living arrangements
into which we have been born.

650
00:50:47,844 --> 00:50:52,070
We are born into captivity, we are born in the civilization, 
we didn't get to choose.

651
00:50:52,070 --> 00:50:56,736
Nobody comes out and says
"Oh shit! No, I'm going back in."

652
00:50:57,341 --> 00:50:58,525
[Laughter]

653
00:50:58,910 --> 00:51:02,441
Right? Not only that but it just keeps getting better, right?, We've got ipods now.

654
00:51:03,470 --> 00:51:07,708
And the whole thing.
And it just looks like it keeps getting better.

655
00:51:08,001 --> 00:51:10,779
Every year my life
has been worse than the year before.

656
00:51:10,779 --> 00:51:14,046
Every year we dirty more air and foul more water
and that whole thing,

657
00:51:14,046 --> 00:51:18,704
and everybody I know thinks it's getting better
because we have smartphones. Right?

658
00:51:19,106 --> 00:51:21,906
So that's my bumper sticker
"Genocide for Smartphones".

659
00:51:22,906 --> 00:51:25,092
We know how we chose, didn't we?

660
00:51:25,394 --> 00:51:29,013
More about blame. Of course it's not our fault, we're born into this settled living arangements,

661
00:51:29,013 --> 00:51:33,102
we did what society expected of us
and if we didn't we were called crazy...

662
00:51:34,084 --> 00:51:39,076
and furthermore, it's FORTY YEARS... from cause to effect;

663
00:51:39,937 --> 00:51:43,667
It's 40 years from greenhouse gas emissions
until temperature rise.

664
00:51:45,749 --> 00:51:51,571
40 years! Forty years ago, I was 13.
I wasn't even driving.

665
00:51:52,103 --> 00:51:58,502
I was looking forward to it, having no clue, in my early teens, what the consequences would be.

666
00:51:59,905 --> 00:52:01,813
None of us knew.

667
00:52:02,174 --> 00:52:06,268
If you knew 40 years ago
that we were headed for the abyss,

668
00:52:06,951 --> 00:52:10,241
and you lived this long,
you're a stronger person than me.

669
00:52:11,208 --> 00:52:14,040
To have that clatter around in your head...
- Thank you!

670
00:52:14,768 --> 00:52:16,306
- Yeah, thank you!

671
00:52:17,292 --> 00:52:19,618
[Laughter]

672
00:52:21,340 --> 00:52:25,006
- Did she just say ...
Did she just thank me for calling her crazy?

673
00:52:26,272 --> 00:52:27,730
Because I almost never get that!

674
00:52:28,001 --> 00:52:29,938
Ok, You're all crazy!

675
00:52:30,272 --> 00:52:32,545
- Thank you! - Thank you!
[Laughter]

676
00:52:33,103 --> 00:52:38,885
So, it's 40 years from cause to effect,
from action to consequence

677
00:52:39,325 --> 00:52:43,754
in terms of warming of the planet,
and within the last 29 years

678
00:52:43,754 --> 00:52:48,392
we generated more greenhouse gas emissions than in the previous 236 years combined.

679
00:52:49,134 --> 00:52:54,786
So we haven't even begun to see the temperature rise associated with those last 29 years.

680
00:52:56,079 --> 00:53:00,022
.85 is a walk in the park
compared to what's coming.

681
00:53:00,480 --> 00:53:02,472
.85 °C rise.

682
00:53:02,849 --> 00:53:10,009
So, I'm not looking to blame anybody,
except the whole thing.

683
00:53:10,405 --> 00:53:14,009
The whole system is irredeemably corrupt,
and we just showed up,

684
00:53:14,009 --> 00:53:15,681
like we didn't get to choose it.

685
00:53:15,681 --> 00:53:19,145
We could have chose sometime when we wouldn't get to see the end of the movie.

686
00:53:19,414 --> 00:53:22,036
And for most people, they think that was better.

687
00:53:24,753 --> 00:53:31,468
- What do you think of some of these ideas about shooting particles up in the atmosphere?

688
00:53:32,405 --> 00:53:34,935
- Geoengineering is a fine question.

689
00:53:35,746 --> 00:53:39,943
Lets see what the
intergovernmental panel on climate change,

690
00:53:39,943 --> 00:53:44,481
in their latest assessment, which ???,
which has been heavily leeked,

691
00:53:44,481 --> 00:53:48,692
they say "Global warming is irreversible without massive geoengineering of the atmosphere's chemistry."

692
00:53:48,692 --> 00:53:50,520
that's a direct quote.

693
00:53:50,520 --> 00:53:53,426
Since then, we've got a paper coming out from Earth System Dynamics, that says:

694
00:53:53,426 --> 00:53:58,468
"Climate geo-engineering cannot simply
be used to undo global warming"

695
00:53:59,287 --> 00:54:02,556
Next paper: "Geoengineering may succeed in cooling the Earth, but it would also

696
00:54:02,556 --> 00:54:06,537
disrupt precipitation patterns around the world."so we couldn't actually grow any food.

697
00:54:07,012 --> 00:54:10,083
Next paper: "Attempts to reverse the impacts of global warming

698
00:54:10,083 --> 00:54:14,014
by injecting reflective particles into the stratosphere could make matters worse."

699
00:54:14,014 --> 00:54:19,573
Next paper Environmental Research Letters "Risk of abrupt and dangerous warming is inherent

700
00:54:19,573 --> 00:54:25,136
to the large-scale implementation of ..." Solar Radiation Management. Putting particles up into the air.

701
00:54:25,136 --> 00:54:28,571
Next paper, from a couple of days ago. Current schemes,

702
00:54:28,571 --> 00:54:33,834
and this paper looked at 5, the 5 most common current schemes of geoengineering,

703
00:54:33,834 --> 00:54:38,338
"Current schemes are likely to either be relatively useless or actually make things worse"

704
00:54:38,900 --> 00:54:41,537
Finally, let's ask the people what they think.

705
00:54:41,537 --> 00:54:44,407
They think it's a stupid idea.

706
00:54:45,247 --> 00:54:46,812
I agree with them.

707
00:54:47,182 --> 00:54:50,842
For a change, I agree with people in this completely irredeemably corrupt society.

708
00:54:51,584 --> 00:54:53,459
I think they figured this one out.

709
00:54:56,412 --> 00:55:02,177
[Imperceptible]

710
00:55:02,177 --> 00:55:06,076
- ...there is nothing that can be done, doesn't make any difference ???,

711
00:55:06,943 --> 00:55:13,982
nothing can change the fact that everyone in this room is going to die from climate change.

712
00:55:13,982 --> 00:55:22,045
Do yo feel that presenting things in that form actually encourages people to try and do something about it?

713
00:55:23,265 --> 00:55:24,462
- No.
- No. It doesn't.

714
00:55:25,762 --> 00:55:30,603
- For several reasons. First of all, I don't know anybody, well there's a handful of people around the world,

715
00:55:30,799 --> 00:55:34,414
??? resistance members among them, who are trying to terminate the settle living arrangements.

716
00:55:34,614 --> 00:55:39,510
I've been trying to do that for a long time and it really hasn't worked out very well.

717
00:55:39,510 --> 00:55:44,964
2, people say: Well, in light of this information don't you think people will become hedonists?

718
00:55:46,292 --> 00:55:49,695
[Laughter]

719
00:55:49,695 --> 00:55:51,790
Americans? [Laugter]

720
00:55:52,184 --> 00:55:53,582
Becoming hedonists?

721
00:55:54,530 --> 00:55:56,762
How would I tell the difference?

722
00:55:57,310 --> 00:55:59,724
We could have everything we want, we have the world's reserve currency.

723
00:56:00,061 --> 00:56:05,171
I don't know a single college student who doesn't show up at college having made a requisite trip to Europe.

724
00:56:05,466 --> 00:56:09,291
That was a big deal when I was a kid. You got to love stories that start like "When I was a kid..."

725
00:56:09,291 --> 00:56:13,209
When I was a kid, people didn't just go to Europe
when they're in Highschool.

726
00:56:14,256 --> 00:56:16,997
It was inconceivable
that anybody would do such a thing.

727
00:56:17,398 --> 00:56:20,929
Am I afraid people will start acting like hedonists?
Not really.

728
00:56:23,714 --> 00:56:28,037
The Buddha... I bet this story isn't true
but I'm gonna tell it as if it is.

729
00:56:29,018 --> 00:56:33,852
The Buddha, apparently, asked one of his students how frequently he thought about death,

730
00:56:33,852 --> 00:56:38,093
and the student goes "I think about death pretty much all the time, probably 100 times a day."

731
00:56:38,093 --> 00:56:41,283
And the Buddha goes "You must think about death
with every breath."

732
00:56:43,159 --> 00:56:46,422
Let's live. Let's live here, now.

733
00:56:46,422 --> 00:56:50,479
You all knew you were gonna die.
Right? Since you were 11 or so?

734
00:56:51,990 --> 00:56:55,184
And you reach this understanding when you're 5 or so,

735
00:56:55,184 --> 00:56:58,748
apparently you realize that you're gonna die but you don't really have a chance to synthesise,

736
00:56:58,748 --> 00:57:02,414
to integrate it into your being.
But by the time you're 10 or 12 years old,

737
00:57:02,414 --> 00:57:07,048
everybody knows that death doesn't do just apply to grandma, it applies to them too.

738
00:57:07,985 --> 00:57:10,928
And I remember, actually, when my grandmother died when I was 11 years old,

739
00:57:10,928 --> 00:57:13,622
and I cried for 2 weeks and I barely knew the woman.

740
00:57:14,584 --> 00:57:19,272
I mean, I met her a few times, she lived always away, 
and I didn't know her at all.

741
00:57:19,478 --> 00:57:24,626
And I cried for a long time, and later, much later, 
it occurred to me that I wasn't crying for her.

742
00:57:24,924 --> 00:57:26,901
I was crying for me.

743
00:57:27,689 --> 00:57:30,359
She was an indicator that I'm mortal too.

744
00:57:30,359 --> 00:57:32,552
And I hate that!

745
00:57:32,552 --> 00:57:36,122
I mean I don't mind that nobody gets out alive,
as long as I'm an exception.

746
00:57:36,122 --> 00:57:37,498
[Laughter]

747
00:57:39,187 --> 00:57:43,001
So, the wolf is always at the door. Right?

748
00:57:43,001 --> 00:57:47,919
Let's act with some urgency in our lives; lets act as if the here and now matters;

749
00:57:47,919 --> 00:57:53,322
let's act as if people around us matter; let's act as if the living planet matters too.

750
00:57:53,322 --> 00:57:57,491
That's all I'm suggesting. I'm suggesting that we act.

751
00:57:59,577 --> 00:58:04,460
I am also suggesting that
I can't imagine it will work to save our species,

752
00:58:04,460 --> 00:58:09,546
but as a conservation biologist I have long known that humans were gonna go extinct.

753
00:58:10,590 --> 00:58:12,721
I didn't know it would be on my watch.

754
00:58:13,586 --> 00:58:15,748
But...

755
00:58:17,072 --> 00:58:19,199
...all species go extinct,

756
00:58:20,424 --> 00:58:22,568
including the most clever of them all.

757
00:58:24,535 --> 00:58:25,817
You, you with the hat.

758
00:58:26,099 --> 00:58:31,396
He says: Is it true that you're investing heavily in start up space travel companies?

759
00:58:31,886 --> 00:58:36,555
Or are you relying upon intervention
by friendly extra-terrestrial?

760
00:58:37,168 --> 00:58:39,989
[Laughter]

761
00:58:39,989 --> 00:58:42,753
No, I'm not investing in space travel.

762
00:58:45,922 --> 00:58:51,594
I suggest that we live here, now. That's sort of inconsistent with jumping in a space-ship.

763
00:58:53,238 --> 00:58:55,182
And I read the Martian chronicles when I was a kid

764
00:58:55,277 --> 00:58:57,680
- I don't know if you remember Ray Bradbury's classic commercial chronicles? -

765
00:58:58,290 --> 00:59:03,990
and people were starting to kill each other in mass here on Earth, so the rest of the people decided to go on Mars,

766
00:59:04,747 --> 00:59:08,219
And it wasn't long that they were on Mars before they could look back and see

767
00:59:08,219 --> 00:59:13,739
everybody on Earth killing themselves, and by that time the process was well under way on Mars.

768
00:59:14,155 --> 00:59:17,950
So, we not only have to escape,
we have to change human behavior.

769
00:59:18,865 --> 00:59:21,149
With respect to aliens,

770
00:59:22,849 --> 00:59:26,458
all you have to do is pretend that I'm an alien,

771
00:59:26,458 --> 00:59:30,711
and now convince me. Tell me why you're worth saving?

772
00:59:31,351 --> 00:59:33,749
Tell me why you're worth extending the run

773
00:59:33,749 --> 00:59:38,292
of the species that is driving to extinction
200 species a day?

774
00:59:39,512 --> 00:59:43,293
Tell me why you're worth saving,
when you're not saving anything.

775
00:59:44,819 --> 00:59:47,255
If you can do that, you can have the microphone.

776
00:59:51,665 --> 00:59:59,822
I have 2 questions. The quick one... I kind of missed what you meant by clathrate gun.

777
01:00:00,445 --> 01:00:05,872
That's not my main question; that just came up from your answers to other people's questions.

778
01:00:08,479 --> 01:00:13,446
aah... people that I know who question climate science,

779
01:00:13,446 --> 01:00:19,784
aahm... one of the big arguments that they make... is.. ahm

780
01:00:20,707 --> 01:00:30,799
ok aah... with carbon you're talking parts per millionth, with methane you're talking parts per billionth,

781
01:00:32,252 --> 01:00:43,961
and they say that really the biggest greenhouse gas, the thing that can hold the most heat

782
01:00:44,902 --> 01:00:47,354
is water in the atmosphere.

783
01:00:47,822 --> 01:00:51,065
Which is, I'm not sure exactly but it's aah

784
01:00:51,659 --> 01:00:57,552
- That's correct, by the way. The biggest greenhouse gas is water in the atmosphere.

785
01:00:59,065 --> 01:01:00,410
- So...

786
01:01:01,149 --> 01:01:05,949
- Right. It's a little change in a little number. What can possibly go wrong?

787
01:01:05,949 --> 01:01:08,170
- Right.

788
01:01:08,265 --> 01:01:10,095
- Yeah, I've heard that one.

789
01:01:11,159 --> 01:01:18,668
- aahm... When you ingest Anthrax it's a little number,
that has a big change.

790
01:01:19,674 --> 01:01:22,584
280ppm is not 400ppm.

791
01:01:23,502 --> 01:01:26,322
If you question the greenhouse effect,

792
01:01:26,861 --> 01:01:31,353
go out in your car on a sunny day, with the windows down,

793
01:01:32,461 --> 01:01:36,423
and it's almost the same temperature inside as out, 
and then roll up the windows.

794
01:01:37,101 --> 01:01:42,855
Like in 5 minutes is a little uncomfortable. 
Well, in 15 is a lot of uncomfortable and 30 minutes...

795
01:01:42,855 --> 01:01:47,772
- ... ??? of the car it's the window. [Imperceptible]

796
01:01:47,772 --> 01:01:55,423
- Right, and so this is an excellent analogy for Earth
with a whole bunch of windows,

797
01:01:55,818 --> 01:02:01,155
and every molecule of CO2, above baseline,
is rolling up a little window,

798
01:02:01,854 --> 01:02:05,691
and it takes 40 years
for those effects to be felt.

799
01:02:06,657 --> 01:02:11,640
I'm not sure how to convince people
who are unconvinced by evidence.

800
01:02:14,020 --> 01:02:16,185
There's no... I don't think there's any way to do that.

801
01:02:18,952 --> 01:02:21,495
- It's clear to me that global warming is going on,

802
01:02:22,383 --> 01:02:28,736
but the math between parts per millionth
and parts per billionth and

803
01:02:29,905 --> 01:02:35,240
water vapor, which I'm not sure exactly
but it's much different,

804
01:02:35,240 --> 01:02:41,851
so I have a hard time at making that math work,
making it, conceptualizing it,

805
01:02:41,851 --> 01:02:44,675
the whole "yeah, that's what it is!".

806
01:02:46,745 --> 01:02:49,207
- Well, I'm not sure I can help you then because

807
01:02:50,857 --> 01:02:57,664
you can put greenhouse emissions or global warming or climate change in the search box,

808
01:02:57,664 --> 01:03:00,023
your favorite search engine, and find abundant information

809
01:03:00,023 --> 01:03:03,870
that is merely elucidation of
what has become the scientific obvious.

810
01:03:04,797 --> 01:03:10,924
In 1847, George Perkins Marsh,
United States ambassador and naturalist,

811
01:03:12,790 --> 01:03:15,905
- is it not interesting? What a weird combination.

812
01:03:16,237 --> 01:03:21,568
You don't see many ambassadors these days who aren't attorneys, much less who are naturalists -

813
01:03:21,804 --> 01:03:25,731
1847, before we started burning any fossil fuels at scale,

814
01:03:25,731 --> 01:03:32,236
1847, George Perkins Marsh predicted global warming
as a result of burning fossil fuels.

815
01:03:33,944 --> 01:03:38,676
By 1896, Svante Arrhenius, who went on to win
the Nobel Prize in Chemistry,

816
01:03:38,676 --> 01:03:45,175
predicted we would observe a 1°C temperature rise - global temperature, planetary average -

817
01:03:45,538 --> 01:03:48,992
by the year 2000, if we keep burning fossil fuels.

818
01:03:49,636 --> 01:03:51,980
The mechanism has been known for a really long time,

819
01:03:51,980 --> 01:03:55,576
it was demonstrated in practice by Guy Kalender,

820
01:03:55,576 --> 01:04:00,211
in 1938, in a paper by Royal Society,

821
01:04:00,211 --> 01:04:06,833
and in 1938 he demonstrated there was a significant rise in global average temperature.

822
01:04:07,469 --> 01:04:12,940
It was a 40 year lag, he documented that rise in about 1915,

823
01:04:12,940 --> 01:04:17,764
about 40 years after we started
burning fossil fuels at scale.

824
01:04:18,472 --> 01:04:20,245
The evidence is overwhelming.

825
01:04:20,540 --> 01:04:22,950
If it can't convince somebody
then it can't convince somebody,

826
01:04:22,950 --> 01:04:25,028
and I'm not interested in trying to convincing them.

827
01:04:25,028 --> 01:04:27,132
It's pointless.

828
01:04:27,162 --> 01:04:29,873
This is like the difference
between trying to convince people

829
01:04:29,873 --> 01:04:33,472
who believe in climate change,
but that it's not that bad.

830
01:04:39,111 --> 01:04:43,988
The burning of fossil fuels, of course, creates heat,

831
01:04:44,983 --> 01:04:48,710
so we've got lots of heat going on
all over the place, all the time.

832
01:04:49,922 --> 01:04:55,818
So couldn't that heat that we're continuously
introducing into the environment...

833
01:04:57,860 --> 01:05:01,929
be a major factor?
- No. It can't.

834
01:05:03,279 --> 01:05:07,272
Because we turn the heat off
for extended periods of time, in various places,

835
01:05:07,350 --> 01:05:11,636
we now removed for the urban heat island effect
and for local phenomena

836
01:05:12,212 --> 01:05:14,855
when calculating global average temperature.

837
01:05:15,243 --> 01:05:19,185
We can talk about this later
but I don't want to spend any more time on it, today

838
01:05:19,519 --> 01:05:25,167
The mechanism has been described, has been illustrated, we've known for a long time

839
01:05:25,684 --> 01:05:29,416
that you can't burn fossil fuels
that accumulated over millions of years

840
01:05:29,729 --> 01:05:33,087
in the span of 150 to 200 years without consequences.

841
01:05:33,712 --> 01:05:36,458
We've know this for a long time.
We're seeing those consequences.

842
01:05:36,697 --> 01:05:38,752
We shouldn't be surprised.

843
01:05:38,985 --> 01:05:41,319
All the way in the back.
- Can we shift gears for a bit

844
01:05:41,547 --> 01:05:44,394
and talk about living gracefully?
Can you say a few words about the gift economy?

845
01:05:44,800 --> 01:05:47,820
I really... that's what is near dear to me.

846
01:05:48,019 --> 01:05:52,021
- Sure. I live in a small valley
in south-western New Mexico,

847
01:05:52,021 --> 01:05:57,887
where I practice and promote agrarian anarchy.

848
01:05:58,318 --> 01:06:02,284
Anarchy is not chaos.
Anarchy is an absence of rulers.

849
01:06:02,284 --> 01:06:05,191
Chaos is an absence of rules.

850
01:06:05,191 --> 01:06:08,585
I practice agrarian anarchy
in the spirit of Wendell Berry

851
01:06:08,881 --> 01:06:10,322
and Edward Abbey,

852
01:06:10,322 --> 01:06:12,284
and Henri David Thoreau

853
01:06:12,284 --> 01:06:16,554
and to a lesser extend, with slaves involved,
Thomas Jefferson

854
01:06:18,405 --> 01:06:21,218
and I also practice and promoted gift economy,

855
01:06:21,815 --> 01:06:25,151
and that's what we did for the first 2 million years
of the human experience.

856
01:06:25,151 --> 01:06:31,230
It was only after civilization arouse that we started...

857
01:06:31,230 --> 01:06:34,088
the notion of currency.

858
01:06:34,088 --> 01:06:36,834
Yes, fiat currency.

859
01:06:36,834 --> 01:06:41,032
I, almost every time I go to the store,
which isn't very often,

860
01:06:41,032 --> 01:06:45,554
the cashier rings me up and then here she says "How would you like to pay for that?"

861
01:06:45,554 --> 01:06:50,049
and I bring out these pieces of green paper
and I go: "You're still taken these?"

862
01:06:50,049 --> 01:06:52,790
They look at me like I'm crazy.

863
01:06:53,250 --> 01:06:55,955
I'm not rolling that out,
because I've been called a lot worse.

864
01:06:57,154 --> 01:06:59,754
But they're still taking those, and it's all a con game,

865
01:06:59,754 --> 01:07:02,403
it's an unbelievable scheme!

866
01:07:03,189 --> 01:07:09,339
I mean... the secretary of treasury Jack Lew
admitted that, last October!

867
01:07:09,786 --> 01:07:15,726
He said: if people want money instead of rolling over the bonds, the whole system comes down.

868
01:07:16,314 --> 01:07:19,716
He admitted it, it's a Ponzi scheme;
right out there in public.

869
01:07:19,947 --> 01:07:23,392
And the American public is like:
"[yawn] Can you pass the chips?

870
01:07:23,713 --> 01:07:25,686
What´s on today any way?"

871
01:07:27,324 --> 01:07:33,347
So, a gift economy... of course a gift economy works great when you're in a triangle situation.

872
01:07:33,878 --> 01:07:36,933
If you have dunbar's number of people, 150 to 250 people,

873
01:07:36,933 --> 01:07:39,115
well, then everybody can keep track of everybody

874
01:07:39,115 --> 01:07:45,747
and the consequence of shunning somebody is probably death for that person.

875
01:07:46,145 --> 01:07:51,926
Now that we've become so globalized and interconnected and dependent upon fiat currency,

876
01:07:51,926 --> 01:07:55,115
that then all bets are of, so to speak.

877
01:07:55,317 --> 01:08:00,051
But, I'm still trying to promote that,
even though it doesn't do any good.

878
01:08:00,268 --> 01:08:01,901
It's like everything else.

879
01:08:02,233 --> 01:08:06,744
Why not? I propose doing everything differently,
then we're doing now.

880
01:08:06,744 --> 01:08:08,597
- It feels great!

881
01:08:08,597 --> 01:08:09,619
- Yes.

882
01:08:09,619 --> 01:08:13,382
aaah... over here.
- Thank you! Thanks for coming ???

883
01:08:13,382 --> 01:08:19,753
You kind of lost me on the methane hidrates. I think that it's not kind of ??? but,

884
01:08:19,753 --> 01:08:26,263
aah, I was doing some research recently on... what they're calling next generation biofuels

885
01:08:26,263 --> 01:08:31,420
and one of them is cellulosic ethanol, 
the other one, that you're probably familiar with is Algae,

886
01:08:31,618 --> 01:08:36,752
and in the finding there´s a number of people and companies that are doing some pretty cool stuff,

887
01:08:36,995 --> 01:08:40,494
and I came upon one in Florida that has already ??

888
01:08:40,494 --> 01:08:48,427
that they can do 10 thousand gallons
of biofuels per acre per year,

889
01:08:48,427 --> 01:08:53,478
using salt water and the CO2 coming out of power plants.

890
01:08:53,816 --> 01:08:59,285
10 thousand gallons. You get about 50 gallons from soybean oil.

891
01:08:59,285 --> 01:09:03,611
Those are completely different things.
Could that, you know, change your predictions

892
01:09:03,611 --> 01:09:07,390
of ????? that going? 
Again, they've already proven it...

893
01:09:07,390 --> 01:09:12,684
The company that I encourage everyone to look it up is Algenol, A-L-G-E-N-O-L,

894
01:09:12,684 --> 01:09:16,639
they are in Florida 
and they're trying to expand right now.

895
01:09:16,639 --> 01:09:20,724
- These are not my predictions, first of all.
These are other people's predictions.

896
01:09:20,724 --> 01:09:23,317
I'm just relaying the good news.

897
01:09:23,455 --> 01:09:25,427
Providing some context.

898
01:09:26,391 --> 01:09:29,417
With respect to the methane,
that's a second question about methane,

899
01:09:29,417 --> 01:09:31,543
so I should explain that a little bit better.

900
01:09:31,543 --> 01:09:34,787
Methane is enclosed within small cages,

901
01:09:34,787 --> 01:09:39,571
only slightly bigger 
than the methane molecule, the CH4.

902
01:09:39,571 --> 01:09:44,516
Enclosed within a cage
and that cage is in the shallow sea beds,

903
01:09:44,956 --> 01:09:50,655
and when it warms,
that cage with the methane starts to rise,

904
01:09:50,655 --> 01:09:53,544
and when it warms a little bit more
the cage falls apart.

905
01:09:54,476 --> 01:09:58,116
And then the methane molecules are released directly into the atmosphere.

906
01:09:58,116 --> 01:10:01,797
So this cages are called clathrates or hydrates.

907
01:10:01,876 --> 01:10:04,848
This is called the clathrate gun
or the methane bomb.

908
01:10:04,848 --> 01:10:09,660
It appears that we´ve triggered it.

909
01:10:09,660 --> 01:10:13,335
Until we can undo the irreversible...

910
01:10:13,335 --> 01:10:18,458
Until we can reverse the irreversible feedback loops, I don´t think it matters.

911
01:10:18,458 --> 01:10:21,256
Furthermore, I´m not a fan of the car culture.


912
01:10:21,256 --> 01:10:24,935
I think the car culture is a huge part of our problem, and so...

913
01:10:24,935 --> 01:10:27,794
continuing the car culture... I don´t think is a good idea,

914
01:10:27,794 --> 01:10:34,891
even if it means carrying our cars with buffalo shit, I´m still not a fan.

915
01:10:34,891 --> 01:10:39,160
- So but, I mean, if we were just in a perfect world

916
01:10:39,160 --> 01:10:45,994
we were able to stop going for oil, stop ?????? Canada

917
01:10:45,994 --> 01:10:52,196
and start plugin in these ponds, 
start growing these biofuels that way...

918
01:10:52,196 --> 01:10:56,579
10 thousand gallons per acre per year,
you got to admit is pretty significant.

919
01:10:56,579 --> 01:11:01,357
yes, I´de be interested in seing the energy return 
on the amount of energy investment for that.

920
01:11:01,357 --> 01:11:04,500
Is this tight oil, like Shell and tar sands?

921
01:11:04,500 --> 01:11:06,930
-No, no, this is algea.

922
01:11:06,930 --> 01:11:12,939
I understand, but algea to petrol 
is not one magic wand ?????

923
01:11:12,939 --> 01:11:21,324
- Oh, what it is is 9 000 of those gallons is ethanol and the remaining 1000 is about

924
01:11:21,324 --> 01:11:27,898
1/3 jet fuel, 1/3 gasoline and 1/3 diesel and then the sludge ???

925
01:11:27,898 --> 01:11:34,025
Ok, I don´t know enough to comment. I encourage anybody who would go algenol to look them up.

926
01:11:34,025 --> 01:11:39,627
I´m not a fan of the car culture, of airplane culture, of maintaining industrial civilization

927
01:11:39,627 --> 01:11:44,845
that is making us sick, making us crazy
and killing us, by any means.

928
01:11:45,656 --> 01:11:49,653
So, if this is another way to prop up civilization,
I´m not a fan.

929
01:11:50,708 --> 01:11:54,058
That´s what it sounds like.

930
01:11:55,639 --> 01:11:58,819
Yes.
-Two questions:

931
01:11:59,100 --> 01:12:02,972
How and when did you come 
to your realisations about this?

932
01:12:03,297 --> 01:12:10,638
And, if there is no hope, why aren´t you down in southwestern Mexico ???????

933
01:12:10,859 --> 01:12:17,036
Wow, two tough questions. Pack your bag. Could we ascort this guy out?

934
01:12:18,103 --> 01:12:23,003
Security? Do we have security?
I think it´s time we let this sucker out.

935
01:12:28,596 --> 01:12:32,003
Sometimes I show and we have technical problems.

936
01:12:32,297 --> 01:12:35,968
The first stop of this tour was in Eugene (I have a point)

937
01:12:39,303 --> 01:12:43,649
and I found out, one minute before the presentation beggins, I don´t have a projector.

938
01:12:44,471 --> 01:12:47,197
So I just did stand-up. Tragedy.

939
01:12:49,420 --> 01:12:53,695
So, I apreciate you humouring me
with your laughter.

940
01:12:55,198 --> 01:12:59,631
I reached this realisation in 2002, when I was editing a book on climate change,

941
01:12:59,631 --> 01:13:02,589
that we were heading for extinction probably in 2030 or so.

942
01:13:02,589 --> 01:13:10,304
And, about a year later, I discovered the concept of global peak oil, and I realised:

943
01:13:10,304 --> 01:13:13,626
This is it! This is the ?????. 
This is the one that´s going to save us

944
01:13:13,626 --> 01:13:17,947
in terminating the industrial civilization. 
We will stop spilling emissions.

945
01:13:19,934 --> 01:13:22,860
And... that was a long time ago.

946
01:13:22,943 --> 01:13:24,432
- And fracking happended!

947
01:13:24,510 --> 01:13:28,912
Yeah. Fracking and tar sands. 
You know, everything we do to maintain

948
01:13:29,002 --> 01:13:32,135
this settled arrangement that is killing 
everything, including us.

949
01:13:36,883 --> 01:13:42,326
So, that was in 2003-2004 that I thought there would be a game over by now.

950
01:13:43,016 --> 01:13:46,684
I moved to southwestern New Mexico
for a variety of reasons.

951
01:13:47,240 --> 01:13:50,245
One of which was that the university 
were I was working

952
01:13:50,245 --> 01:13:56,884
was just another exemple of 
fundamentally irredeamebly corrupt system.

953
01:13:57,168 --> 01:14:00,347
So I didn´t feel confortable working there anymore.

954
01:14:02,952 --> 01:14:07,794
I´m not there now


955
01:14:10,451 --> 01:14:13,107
because the project has failed.

956
01:14:13,422 --> 01:14:20,697
I built a platinum level doomsdead, a homestead that has 2 solar whels

957
01:14:20,697 --> 01:14:28,913
and a ?????.

958
01:14:30,141 --> 01:14:35,809
No fossil fuels are required to run the place.
It´s amazing for huge gardens

959
01:14:35,809 --> 01:14:42,917
a large orchard, goats, chickens, ducks, turkeys and a goose named Myrtle.

960
01:14:45,160 --> 01:14:49,287
The most important part of the whole thing. 
And then she left.

961
01:14:49,823 --> 01:14:52,190
She went to the neighbours!

962
01:14:53,423 --> 01:14:57,170
They have six big ??? ducks and she´s like: "hey, this is my people."

963
01:14:58,068 --> 01:15:00,322
And she wondered off and she spends all her time down there.

964
01:15:00,322 --> 01:15:05,040
She come like one every two or three months, and she´s "quack quack quack"

965
01:15:05,040 --> 01:15:09,210
and the honk says "I just want to check in and say I don´t live here anymore. Screw you!"

966
01:15:10,694 --> 01:15:14,541
And that´s when I knew. I got to get the hell out of there, because it ain´t working.

967
01:15:15,238 --> 01:15:17,539
Even Myrtle wouldn´t stay.

968
01:15:19,241 --> 01:15:22,094
So, it´s been a complete catastrophic failure.

969
01:15:22,593 --> 01:15:24,708
I would rather be here than there.

970
01:15:24,708 --> 01:15:27,066
- Why was it a failure?

971
01:15:30,106 --> 01:15:31,896
- You mean, besides Myrtle?

972
01:15:32,487 --> 01:15:34,599
- Yeah, besides Myrtle.
- I know, I know.

973
01:15:34,599 --> 01:15:38,144
I can´t remenber the stuff. 
I have to look it up.

974
01:15:40,391 --> 01:15:44,656
It says here in this book - it must be true because it´s on paper-

975
01:15:47,092 --> 01:15:48,176
Let´s see...

976
01:15:48,176 --> 01:15:51,496
"I left the easy life of a tenure professor in an amazing university

977
01:15:51,496 --> 01:15:55,098
to develop and occupy the property I called 'The MudHut',

978
01:15:55,098 --> 01:16:03,440
and I did that for five premiere reasons, 
all of which have failed.

979
01:16:03,440 --> 01:16:05,994
So, all the goals have failed to be met.

980
01:16:05,994 --> 01:16:09,893
Firts of those, I left as an act of resistance
against the dominant paradigme.

981
01:16:09,893 --> 01:16:15,766
Guess what, the dominant paradigme and those within it failed to notice.

982
01:16:15,766 --> 01:16:20,571
2. I left as an example of alternative living, in my case promoting a gift economy

983
01:16:20,571 --> 01:16:22,526
within agrarian anarchy.

984
01:16:22,526 --> 01:16:25,753
My example has failed to inspire a number of significant others to live differently,

985
01:16:25,753 --> 01:16:28,214
to live outside the system.

986
01:16:28,214 --> 01:16:32,974
3. I left as a way to promote more... 
to provide more time

987
01:16:32,974 --> 01:16:36,330
(my eyes are getting worse everyday)

988
01:16:36,330 --> 01:16:39,880
a way to provide more time for speaking and writing about important topics,

989
01:16:39,880 --> 01:16:45,412
actions which were discouraged at the university where I was working.

990
01:16:45,412 --> 01:16:48,116
My last department head was hired specifically to make my life

991
01:16:48,116 --> 01:16:51,477
miserable enough so that I would leave.

992
01:16:51,477 --> 01:16:56,239
She´s a dean at the University of Washington now. Congratulations.

993
01:16:56,519 --> 01:17:02,670
I have enjoyed limited sucess in this arena, although triumph ???? not battling administator

994
01:17:03,069 --> 01:17:06,867
dragons has been largely consumed with vigorous physical work,

995
01:17:06,867 --> 01:17:10,028
like digging those damed trenches for the water delivery system.

996
01:17:10,028 --> 01:17:14,389
4. The place is a refuge for the youngster, the son of the couple

997
01:17:14,389 --> 01:17:18,118
with whom my wife and I shared this property, as well as his generation.

998
01:17:18,118 --> 01:17:23,477
Due to ongoing accelerating climate change, the unsure future in this location probably will be

999
01:17:23,477 --> 01:17:25,185
notably short.

1000
01:17:25,832 --> 01:17:29,688
And 5. it´s a way to extend my own life and that of my wife.

1001
01:17:29,688 --> 01:17:34,010
Due to ongoing accelerating climate change, 
our future in this location is likely to be quite short.

1002
01:17:34,362 --> 01:17:38,113
So this were the 5 goals I had. The next paragraph starts with:

1003
01:17:38,113 --> 01:17:42,088
"Perhaps most importantly there is a widenning chasm within the partnership formed

1004
01:17:42,088 --> 01:17:45,726
in this shared property. Although leaving the life that I loved as an academic

1005
01:17:45,726 --> 01:17:47,787
to move to a diferent location
made sense at the time,

1006
01:17:47,787 --> 01:17:51,922
long before the climate change news grew so dire, 
and everyone's collapse appeared eminent

1007
01:17:51,922 --> 01:17:56,446
I now view the major personnal transition as infinitly regretable.

1008
01:17:57,044 --> 01:18:01,622
I´ve come to see that it was the wort mistake of my life, althoug I´m not dead yet,

1009
01:18:01,799 --> 01:18:03,995
so can yet get up and be myself.

1010
01:18:04,413 --> 01:18:07,638
So it hasn´t worked in part because of the relations on the property,

1011
01:18:07,638 --> 01:18:11,520
which have broken down in a
somewhat horrifying manner.

1012
01:18:12,806 --> 01:18:14,865
You know, living with people is hard.

1013
01:18:21,190 --> 01:18:23,865
???? that was essencially my question.

1014
01:18:24,691 --> 01:18:28,043
When you found out that essencially we were all going to be done,

1015
01:18:28,979 --> 01:18:31,232
???????????????????

1016
01:18:31,550 --> 01:18:34,358
Of course, my reaction at the time
was utter despair

1017
01:18:34,692 --> 01:18:38,526
and I didn´t fit in particularly well 
in society before that,

1018
01:18:38,526 --> 01:18:42,116
but when you start mourning
events that haven´t happened yet,

1019
01:18:42,889 --> 01:18:44,937
you´re an absolute nutcase.

1020
01:18:45,898 --> 01:18:50,925
And so, people are mourning the death
of their 92 year old grandmother,

1021
01:18:50,925 --> 01:18:56,831
whose been hanging on suffering ???? from cancer for 3 years, and I´m like;

1022
01:18:56,831 --> 01:19:04,322
Let it go. That´s one human being that´s had a full and rich life. Let her go.

1023
01:19:04,322 --> 01:19:08,567

I´m mourning the near come demise of our entire species, and people are going:

1024
01:19:09,306 --> 01:19:14,290
What? You don´t know what you´re talking about. 
That´s a theoretical thing.

1025
01:19:14,290 --> 01:19:19,341
It´s so abstract.
It reminds me of "Star Trek".


1026
01:19:19,341 --> 01:19:22,119
-Yay!
Somethings do.

1027
01:19:22,119 --> 01:19:26,789
I don´t know if you remember the early days "Star Trek"...
- Yay!

1028
01:19:26,789 --> 01:19:32,829
- I got that... Yes, that´s who exactly I´m going to talk about,

1029
01:19:32,829 --> 01:19:35,363
Mister Live Long and Prosper.
-Yay!

1030
01:19:35,638 --> 01:19:42,990
So, a ship was blown up, 
a vulcan ship was blown up

1031
01:19:43,500 --> 01:19:47,127
and like 300 people died
and Spok sheds a tear.

1032
01:19:47,425 --> 01:19:50,698
A tear! It´s unbelieveble! 
He shows no emotions ever.

1033
01:19:50,698 --> 01:19:54,763
And all the humans are like:
"what? what´s up with that?"

1034
01:19:54,763 --> 01:19:57,336
He says: "You people mourn the death
of a single individual.

1035
01:19:57,336 --> 01:20:02,214
I just lost 320 of my comrads, 
and you can´t understand."

1036
01:20:02,214 --> 01:20:04,480
And I felt the same way, only it was 7 billion.

1037
01:20:09,065 --> 01:20:12,933
And nobody got that either.
Weird.

1038
01:20:16,663 --> 01:20:24,830
[Imperceptible]

1039
01:20:30,692 --> 01:20:37,578
Yes, so the question is if this climate chaos
causes human extinction,

1040
01:20:37,578 --> 01:20:41,627
will there be any animals that would be alive.
Yes, I think there will be.

1041
01:20:41,627 --> 01:20:47,565
The faster we terminate the industrial
civilization, the more especies,

1042
01:20:47,574 --> 01:20:51,672
I believe, will remain. 
Even if terminating industrial civilization

1043
01:20:52,032 --> 01:20:58,252
leads to 2ºC in a short period of time, 
then I still think that

1044
01:20:58,252 --> 01:21:00,757
some organisms have a chance.

1045
01:21:00,757 --> 01:21:09,267
Here´s the thing: 
if we have chinook salmon next year,

1046
01:21:10,334 --> 01:21:13,088
we might have chinook salmon 
in twenty years.

1047
01:21:13,332 --> 01:21:15,962
But if we don´t have chinook salmon 
next year, we won´t.

1048
01:21:17,547 --> 01:21:21,745
So, what I´m working for, 
is those other species, at this point.

1049
01:21:21,745 --> 01:21:23,191
I think we´re done.

1050
01:21:24,032 --> 01:21:27,382
But I´m working for those other species,
and here´s what I´m really working for:

1051
01:21:28,940 --> 01:21:32,964
Edward O. Wilson, Conservation Biologist 
at Harvard University

1052
01:21:32,964 --> 01:21:36,303
predicts that only 10 million years 
after an extinction level event

1053
01:21:36,603 --> 01:21:39,488
- there have been five, so far, 
we are in the midst of the 6th extinction-

1054
01:21:39,488 --> 01:21:44,860
only 10 million years after an extinction level event, we have a vibrant green planet again.

1055
01:21:45,035 --> 01:21:46,557
10 million years. 


1056
01:21:46,557 --> 01:21:49,568
The more seeds we can plant now,
the more species we save now,

1057
01:21:49,858 --> 01:21:55,686
the greater likelyhood that in only 10 million
years, we have a vibrant planet again.

1058
01:21:58,099 --> 01:22:02,645
Recently, like in the last two months,
there was a new species,

1059
01:22:02,645 --> 01:22:07,912
previously unknown to humanity,
discovered in the sarcophagus of Chernobyl.

1060
01:22:09,254 --> 01:22:12,026
It was a slime mold. 
In the sarcophagus.

1061
01:22:13,203 --> 01:22:17,169
Ionizing radiation at that level
and we can´t even kill everything.

1062
01:22:18,145 --> 01:22:22,284
As mutch as that´s our goal.
Is to kill everything.

1063
01:22:22,761 --> 01:22:25,964
It appears that we´re not going to be
"successful" at that.

1064
01:22:26,827 --> 01:22:31,398
So, my goal is to keep as many species
around as we possibly can.

1065
01:22:35,764 --> 01:22:40,071
Do you take any comfort from quantum mechanics and dark energy and dark matter?

1066
01:22:40,467 --> 01:22:44,012
This could be a very small sliver
of what we think is real.

1067
01:22:45,367 --> 01:22:50,168
Sure. Absolutely. I take comfort
from nearly anything at this point.

1068
01:22:55,498 --> 01:22:57,434
Dark matter maters.

1069
01:23:03,415 --> 01:23:10,302
I´m remembering two of the past extinctions,
where 60 millions and 200 millions and...

1070
01:23:10,584 --> 01:23:12,637
55 millions and 251 million years ago

1071
01:23:12,948 --> 01:23:22,191
what percentage of the land and sea species
were ???? or lasted ???

1072
01:23:22,191 --> 01:23:24,478
Was like 95%?

1073
01:23:24,478 --> 01:23:34,100
In The Great Dying, 251 million years ago,
the number of taxa, the number of species,

1074
01:23:34,100 --> 01:23:38,036
but, probably more general level,
the number of genera that we lost

1075
01:23:38,036 --> 01:23:40,275
was more than 95%. 


1076
01:23:40,275 --> 01:23:43,151
And 55 million years ago, it was more
than 90%.

1077
01:23:43,794 --> 01:23:46,762
So, it´s a huge proportion.

1078
01:23:46,847 --> 01:23:49,752
So everything that´s here now ????

1079
01:23:50,422 --> 01:23:54,123
Yes, that´s right.
Everything that´s here now

1080
01:23:54,193 --> 01:23:58,173
is because those species made it
through the extinction ????

1081
01:23:58,843 --> 01:24:05,277
So, your hope would be a 
5 or 10 or 15% survival rate.

1082
01:24:05,507 --> 01:24:13,888
Yes. If we have 0,0001% that get it through
that´s better than 0,00001%.


1083
01:24:13,888 --> 01:24:17,860
Yes, absolutely.
Let´s act as if every species matters.

1084
01:24:20,693 --> 01:24:24,732
On the higher estimates that you have though, 
do you feel like there could be

1085
01:24:24,732 --> 01:24:31,247
a runaway kind of climate chaos that could lead
to a similar ?????

1086
01:24:31,247 --> 01:24:36,208
that just ???? beyond where ?????

1087
01:24:36,208 --> 01:24:40,727
Yes, it´s possible. It´s possible 
that we could go Venus.

1088
01:24:40,727 --> 01:24:49,557
In the same frame of analysis, he sugests that, by 2026,
we´ll have a 160 degrees centigrade

1089
01:24:49,797 --> 01:24:54,452
of the surface temperature. 
So that´s Venus, by the end of the century.

1090
01:24:55,152 --> 01:25:01,914
It could be, but I think we should act
as if that´s not going to happen,

1091
01:25:02,785 --> 01:25:08,783
that we should act as if our future matters, 
that we should act as if the future of

1092
01:25:08,783 --> 01:25:13,202
other organisms matters as well, instead of 
just saying: uhm, it´s done.

1093
01:25:13,823 --> 01:25:16,257
It´s game over. Let´s party like it´s 1999.

1094
01:25:17,476 --> 01:25:23,457
I have another question too, about what you were saying of the actual time scale,

1095
01:25:24,043 --> 01:25:28,463
and now I know that there is some... 
this drought in California,

1096
01:25:28,463 --> 01:25:31,426
and ???? food prices are going up, and all this kind of things,


1097
01:25:31,426 --> 01:25:35,539
I kind of intuitively felt that 
maybe we are seing the beginning,

1098
01:25:35,539 --> 01:25:40,252
maybe they´re not going down again, 
like this is.... the food prices

1099
01:25:40,252 --> 01:25:46,327
and the accessability of food... 
and so I´m wondering if you think

1100
01:25:46,614 --> 01:25:57,318
that what we´re seing now with how this 
affects on the food system,

1101
01:25:57,318 --> 01:26:02,024
if that is going to be the first to get afected
as far as what we will really notice,

1102
01:26:02,029 --> 01:26:07,305
and see that the producing areas 
are not going to be able to produce food anymore

1103
01:26:07,616 --> 01:26:11,192
It could very well be and David ??? 
writing for Fiesta Group

1104
01:26:11,552 --> 01:26:22,022
in late 2012, as I recall, indicates that 
global economic collapse will be complete

1105
01:26:22,022 --> 01:26:26,637
in as little as 3 weeks after a significantly 
disruption in the supply chain.

1106
01:26:27,413 --> 01:26:33,822
And here he´s talking about supplay chain disruption,
including food, or oil,

1107
01:26:34,249 --> 01:26:38,243
or any number of other things. 
A significant disruption we´re 3 weeks away

1108
01:26:38,243 --> 01:26:41,619
from terminating the settled living arrangments.

1109
01:26:41,619 --> 01:26:46,099
Yes, I think that what we´re seing now 
is the result of climate change

1110
01:26:46,099 --> 01:26:51,751
as already baked into the cake, and that 
because of that 40 year lag,

1111
01:26:51,751 --> 01:26:57,785
there is little we can do, now, that will
have any impact on 


1112
01:26:57,785 --> 01:27:02,089
how those changes will play out.
We´re locked in to a drought.

1113
01:27:02,089 --> 01:27:04,520
????? for a really long period of time. 


1114
01:27:05,205 --> 01:27:10,770
It´s going to be wet and cold in the U.K. 
and northern Europe, for a long time.

1115
01:27:13,517 --> 01:27:15,735
And so, yes, ???? food suply.

1116
01:27:16,708 --> 01:27:23,566
What do you think the social impact will be,
for the next 2 or 3 year, on a global scale?

1117
01:27:24,220 --> 01:27:26,731
Social impacts of climate change?

1118
01:27:27,536 --> 01:27:34,375
Several people, in retrospect,
now have viewed the Syrian´s spring

1119
01:27:34,375 --> 01:27:40,191
as a consequence of drought, 
of food shortage induced by climate change,

1120
01:27:40,191 --> 01:27:48,507
So, if that´s a canarian coalmine,
and it might be, then we could see that spreading to

1121
01:27:48,507 --> 01:27:59,160
far wider portions of the globe. 
So, I read an analysis yesterday, indicating

1122
01:27:59,160 --> 01:28:05,946
that we´re one year away
from massive global scale scale food riots,

1123
01:28:05,946 --> 01:28:11,154
because of disruptions in the food supply.
Could be.

1124
01:28:17,644 --> 01:28:19,037
I can´t hear you.

1125
01:28:20,167 --> 01:28:24,826
[imperceptable]

1126
01:28:24,826 --> 01:28:28,698
Ok, so, are there any counter-balancing 
cooling signs? Well, there are

1127
01:28:28,698 --> 01:28:32,105
there´s at least one negative feedback
I know about, 


1128
01:28:32,105 --> 01:28:38,422
one negative reinforcement ???.
As the planet warms it releases more heat

1129
01:28:38,422 --> 01:28:43,153
in the space, but as near as I can tell,
that´s linear, not exponential.

1130
01:28:44,963 --> 01:28:50,577
We are due for an ice age
and the sun is dimming,

1131
01:28:50,689 --> 01:28:58,163
and apparently it will reach it´s lowest point,
in terms of radiation, in about 2020.

1132
01:28:59,329 --> 01:29:05,078
So, we´re dimming right now.
We´re overcoming the effects of a ...

1133
01:29:05,078 --> 01:29:09,655
of decreased energy coming from the sun.

1134
01:29:09,883 --> 01:29:14,502
What is scheduled to be an ice age, 
we´re overcoming that with carbon emissions.

1135
01:29:14,922 --> 01:29:20,553
So, vulcanos anybody?
I mean, they´re worth for the short term.

1136
01:29:21,061 --> 01:29:26,895
But we need to keep spilling the materials
into the air, the refelctive particles in to the air

1137
01:29:26,895 --> 01:29:34,326
forever, and so... super vulcanos?
Anybody signing up for Yellow Stone going?

1138
01:29:36,426 --> 01:29:39,406
So, it may well take something like that 
to counter-balance

1139
01:29:40,011 --> 01:29:46,090
??????, I´m a psychologist. 
I remember reading some...

1140
01:29:46,090 --> 01:29:50,256
And I´m not crazy, so...

1141
01:29:50,496 --> 01:29:54,625
I remember reading some pop 
psychology reviews about

1142
01:29:58,189 --> 01:30:02,583
educaters telling people about
climate change, and if they put it

1143
01:30:02,980 --> 01:30:09,785
in a `no way out of it`kind of perspective, 
the students leave feeling as if

1144
01:30:09,785 --> 01:30:14,384
they can´t do anything about it. 
And when they track

1145
01:30:14,384 --> 01:30:18,987
how they change their behaviours afterwards, 
they don´t change anything

1146
01:30:18,987 --> 01:30:27,348
or, you know, recycle less. 
If they hear about it in a positive light,

1147
01:30:27,608 --> 01:30:37,401
"we cand do something", they tend to do more
greenish kind of stuff.

1148
01:30:37,401 --> 01:30:43,801
Are you familiar with the study, 
if so, how do you... are there other things

1149
01:30:43,801 --> 01:30:47,361
that go in the equation for you, like


1150
01:30:47,361 --> 01:30:51,556
it´s going to go anyway so at least
we could go with some dignity, something like that?

1151
01:30:51,560 --> 01:30:56,370
I'm not familiar with the study but that never ceased me from commenting about a study

1152
01:30:56,397 --> 01:30:59,007
just because I don't know anything.

1153
01:30:59,393 --> 01:31:03,393
The comment about recycling, if I punch you in the face

1154
01:31:03,417 --> 01:31:05,554
do you think it's O.K. if I apologize?

1155
01:31:07,520 --> 01:31:10,961
No, of course not! That's a horrible thing!

1156
01:31:11,007 --> 01:31:13,210
But we recycle... It's the same thing.

1157
01:31:13,258 --> 01:31:15,418
Punch the planet in the face and we recycle,

1158
01:31:15,847 --> 01:31:18,241
"oh it's good, look, I recycle, look at me..."

1159
01:31:18,241 --> 01:31:20,721
What about reduce and reuse?

1160
01:31:20,772 --> 01:31:23,042
Remember the other 2 R's, the ones that matter?

1161
01:31:23,098 --> 01:31:28,668
The only ones that make corporate America any money is the recycle one.

1162
01:31:28,709 --> 01:31:33,699
So, that's why we do that.
But, it's an apology after a punch in the face.

1163
01:31:33,701 --> 01:31:37,377
I do this for many reasons,

1164
01:31:39,322 --> 01:31:41,731
among them that nobody else does.

1165
01:31:43,441 --> 01:31:45,771
I think we have the right to know,

1166
01:31:45,771 --> 01:31:48,341
and the corporate media and the
corporate governments of the world

1167
01:31:48,385 --> 01:31:51,425
are not telling you the facts.

1168
01:31:54,562 --> 01:31:58,405
I think you have the right to know, I think you have the right to know what I know and

1169
01:31:58,405 --> 01:32:00,806
there's a whole bunch of people
who know what I know, by the way.

1170
01:32:01,727 --> 01:32:05,097
I was contacted, out of the blue, much to my surprise,

1171
01:32:05,160 --> 01:32:08,264
a guy you would all know if I said his name,

1172
01:32:08,487 --> 01:32:14,704
he contacted me in December of 2012, and he says:

1173
01:32:15,162 --> 01:32:20,633
"You got it figured out, on the climate change front;
I'm buying the whole thing,

1174
01:32:20,639 --> 01:32:24,029
and can I come and visit the the 'mud hut'

1175
01:32:24,029 --> 01:32:28,029
because I'm moving to the Southern Hemisphere, and I want to replicate what you're doing."

1176
01:32:28,170 --> 01:32:32,290
This guy is about my age, and I did a bunch of research to figure out if this was actually him.

1177
01:32:33,167 --> 01:32:37,377
Because I'm thinking "Famous people
don't send me email messages."

1178
01:32:37,384 --> 01:32:42,094
So I did a bunch of research and it all matched, but still I wrote back to him and I said "Are you really you?"

1179
01:32:42,725 --> 01:32:46,725
you know, because after he lied the first time
he wouldn't lie the second time, I'm sure but..

1180
01:32:50,351 --> 01:32:54,351
So people know. People with lots of fiat currency

1181
01:32:54,351 --> 01:32:59,111
are converting that fiat currency into land
and homesteads in the Southern Hemisphere,...

1182
01:32:59,111 --> 01:33:02,181
- George Bush is one of them.
...and this is not the only case.

1183
01:33:02,295 --> 01:33:06,295
That's right. The Bush family is among them.

1184
01:33:06,295 --> 01:33:12,405
with a homestead in Paraguay. James Cameron, the film maker, 
owns a whole bunch of New Zealand,

1185
01:33:12,405 --> 01:33:15,235
and the list goes on and on.

1186
01:33:15,235 --> 01:33:19,815
So, I do this in part because
I think we deserve to know what I know.

1187
01:33:19,815 --> 01:33:24,755
We deserve to know the facts and the models
and the projections about climate change.

1188
01:33:25,148 --> 01:33:28,448
And I don't see anybody else doing that.

1189
01:33:29,729 --> 01:33:32,389
Yes.
- Perfect time for comments.

1190
01:33:32,389 --> 01:33:34,299
????

1191
01:33:35,075 --> 01:33:38,035
Some Dallas philosophy a little bit.

1192
01:33:43,827 --> 01:33:47,429
What we can do is become aware. That's what you're doing.

1193
01:33:48,619 --> 01:33:52,781
I know a lot more information
than I did before I came in here tonight.

1194
01:33:52,781 --> 01:33:58,145
So the first step is to become aware and then act accordingly.

1195
01:33:58,950 --> 01:34:02,950
I would also add to that: act if it´s the right action.

1196
01:34:03,276 --> 01:34:06,636
Buddha said that, when he played tennis.

1197
01:34:07,095 --> 01:34:13,365
Also, right action.
So, awareness and then act accordingly.

1198
01:34:14,039 --> 01:34:17,239
That´s the best that we can do, 
and it´s all that we can do

1199
01:34:17,239 --> 01:34:18,819
and it´s enough.

1200
01:34:19,029 --> 01:34:21,469
The Universe will take care of the rest.

1201
01:34:21,570 --> 01:34:25,570
If we act in the Now, in the Present, 
we make our tomorrows.

1202
01:34:27,447 --> 01:34:31,787
Yes, I agree.
So awareness is the first step

1203
01:34:31,787 --> 01:34:36,787
and awareness is not Nirvana.
Awareness is a curse.

1204
01:34:38,505 --> 01:34:42,255
Oh! I forgot to mention something.

1205
01:34:42,430 --> 01:34:45,510
Now is probably the wrong time.

1206
01:34:46,408 --> 01:34:50,408
But I don´t know if you remember 
this first slide. It has an asteroid.

1207
01:34:51,049 --> 01:34:55,249
And it´s supposed to remaind me to tell you
that there´s two kinds of people in the world,

1208
01:34:55,249 --> 01:34:58,839
those who categorize people under two kinds of people,

1209
01:34:58,839 --> 01:35:00,649
Oh. no, no, no.

1210
01:35:01,134 --> 01:35:05,134
There are people who want to know, 
they want to know everything, they want to be fully aware,

1211
01:35:05,170 --> 01:35:07,860
And then there are people
who don´t want to know anything.

1212
01:35:08,107 --> 01:35:11,477
If there is an asteroid coming, 
they don´t want to know about it until they´re dead.

1213
01:35:11,477 --> 01:35:13,587
So don´t tell me a thing.

1214
01:35:13,587 --> 01:35:17,147
Others of us want to know and I want to be out there
staring the damned thing down.

1215
01:35:17,147 --> 01:35:19,877
When it gets here,
it better hit me in the nose. 


1216
01:35:20,136 --> 01:35:22,406
That´s me. 
So I assume that´s you.

1217
01:35:22,433 --> 01:35:26,433
But I was supposed to start by saing that 
if that´s not you, now it would be a good time to leave.

1218
01:35:26,433 --> 01:35:31,653
Now is a bad time to leave,
because now you all know.

1219
01:35:31,653 --> 01:35:35,653
It´s like that Louis CK routine,
where he is talking to this 3 year old daughter

1220
01:35:35,653 --> 01:35:39,013
and, she keeps asking him questions 
and finnally he starts to get frustrated

1221
01:35:39,013 --> 01:35:42,903
and he says: because at some point the 
Sun will blow over and kill us all.

1222
01:35:43,464 --> 01:35:48,264
And so the 3 year old, before the conversation started 
didn´t know anything, and now she knows everything.

1223
01:35:48,733 --> 01:35:52,443
And Ifeel the same way. 
Now you know everything.

1224
01:35:52,443 --> 01:35:55,063
You know that you´re going to die
as so as averybody else.

1225
01:35:55,065 --> 01:35:59,065
But you knew that anyway.
So it´s not a big surprise. You´re not 3 years old.

1226
01:36:06,136 --> 01:36:12,166
Could you talk a little bit more about the northern hemisphere 
versus the southern hemisphere?

1227
01:36:12,942 --> 01:36:17,942
You´re not depressed enough, yet?
Jesus, what does it take with you people?

1228
01:36:30,144 --> 01:36:34,144
How much longer do we have in the southern hemisphere?

1229
01:36:36,042 --> 01:36:40,042
How much longer to build a property down south?

1230
01:36:43,333 --> 01:36:50,273
Oh. I think it´s gone.
I had an answer for that. Let´s see.

1231
01:36:50,273 --> 01:36:55,923
Malcom ??? did this analisys for the Arctic Methane Emergency Group 
on the ??? of February of 2012

1232
01:36:57,229 --> 01:37:01,229
and it´s distrubing to me that
this is the sort of stuff that it´s in my head.

1233
01:37:02,698 --> 01:37:12,407
And in it he concluded that all life on Earth
will be extinct by 2047, plus or minus a few years.

1234
01:37:13,247 --> 01:37:19,387
And he said, 2031.6, plus or minus 13 years,
in the northern hemisphere

1235
01:37:20,285 --> 01:37:24,725
2047, plus or minus a similar number of years,
in the southern hemisphere.

1236
01:37:24,918 --> 01:37:28,918
So that for all like on Earth. 
That´s 16 years. 16 years.

1237
01:37:29,780 --> 01:37:33,340
I think he´s wrong.
I don´t think we can kill everything.

1238
01:37:35,553 --> 01:37:39,553
I see no way that we can manage
to kill everything by 2047.

1239
01:37:43,404 --> 01:37:48,024
So, if it´s 16 years for all life, 
how much is it for human life?


1240
01:37:48,024 --> 01:37:51,984
I don´t know, Is it 10 years, is it 15?
I don´t think anybody really knows.

1241
01:37:51,984 --> 01:37:56,424
But, I mean, you decided to move to New Mexico. 
Yeah, that was stupid, remember?

1242
01:37:57,941 --> 01:38:01,941
I love the way you keep bringing that in, though.

1243
01:38:03,072 --> 01:38:06,342
You were really stupid,
let´s bring that up again.

1244
01:38:09,378 --> 01:38:14,958
What is with you people, anyway?
You say I´m stupid and you laugh about it.

1245
01:38:14,958 --> 01:38:17,968
That´s a little disturbing.

1246
01:38:18,558 --> 01:38:22,558
And that guy who isn´t a psychologist laughed. 
??? go get one.

1247
01:38:26,440 --> 01:38:35,550
So if this ???comes to pass, when and as you expect,
what will you do?

1248
01:38:35,641 --> 01:38:41,691
Will you wait around and starve to death with everyone else or do you have a plan for yourself?

1249
01:38:41,794 --> 01:38:43,924
Is there a point?

1250
01:38:47,287 --> 01:38:51,287
[Imperceptable]

1251
01:38:56,148 --> 01:39:00,148
You´re just too macabre.
That´s what you are.

1252
01:39:00,432 --> 01:39:06,062
What am I gonna do?
Well, I suspect where Iive, at some point,

1253
01:39:06,062 --> 01:39:11,982
temperatures will rise, to a high enough level, that will 
???? the proteins in all the planet.

1254
01:39:11,982 --> 01:39:17,072
That´s like 125 or 120º fahrenheit, 
and that will ???? all the proteins in all the plants.

1255
01:39:17,072 --> 01:39:21,842
So all the plants will die. 
And where Ilive those spring winds are horryfic.

1256
01:39:21,842 --> 01:39:26,482
Starting in February and March, it´s like 
40 or 50 mile ??? winds every day

1257
01:39:26,482 --> 01:39:29,752
and it´s really quite unpleasant. 
Well, ????no plans.

1258
01:39:29,779 --> 01:39:35,709
A thousand people died in the dust ball
in this country, choking to death, literally, on dust.

1259
01:39:35,709 --> 01:39:39,099
So that´s everybody I know, ????

1260
01:39:39,395 --> 01:39:43,895
And you will wait for that to happen, 
as opposed to take your on life?

1261
01:39:58,637 --> 01:40:02,637
What´s it take to get a drink in this place?

1262
01:40:10,914 --> 01:40:16,364
I..... It´s dificult for me to imagine a scenario 
in which I will commit suicide

1263
01:40:16,804 --> 01:40:24,924
There is a young guy named Daniel ???? whio wrote an essay, 
in "Nature Bats Last" maybe a year ago,

1264
01:40:24,924 --> 01:40:32,534
whose 11.300 words, which is a lot, specially in Twitter nation, where 140 characters ????

1265
01:40:35,363 --> 01:40:39,363
11.300 palavras and it´s just ????, it´s he´s journey, he´s ride

1266
01:40:39,661 --> 01:40:45,581
of despair and utter hopelessness, followed by total extinction

1267
01:40:45,902 --> 01:40:50,102
You know, just up and down, up and down,
and it was horrifying,

1268
01:40:50,102 --> 01:40:55,702
and I can summerize that essay in just 3 words: 
starvation, predation and suicide.

1269
01:40:56,624 --> 01:41:02,894
That´s all they said.
11.300 words.. 11297 more than it took me.

1270
01:41:04,265 --> 01:41:06,645
I don´t see myself commiting suicide. 


1271
01:41:06,709 --> 01:41:14,299
I eagerly anticipate seing the comeback of the living planet, 
if only for a few weeks or months.

1272
01:41:15,765 --> 01:41:21,505
I think it will be awesome to see 
the end of industrial civilization.

1273
01:41:24,514 --> 01:41:30,574
And yes, it will kill me, way sooner than it´s going to kill
almost everybody else in the planet.

1274
01:41:31,546 --> 01:41:37,156
Already 5 million people a year die early death because of climate change and people ask me: when it´s going to start?

1275
01:41:38,050 --> 01:41:42,050
To the families of those 5 million people, it already started.

1276
01:41:43,572 --> 01:41:47,732
So, it´s already in the way. I look foward for the living planet to make its come back, no matter how briefly.

1277
01:41:47,864 --> 01:41:51,434
So I can´t imagine I will kill myself.

1278
01:41:52,214 --> 01:41:59,444
However, there are a lot of people who have that in mind for me. 
So I might not escape the bullet just yet.

1279
01:42:00,820 --> 01:42:04,820
Sometimes I think it´s good 
that people are ignorant because


1280
01:42:04,821 --> 01:42:10,751
if everybody is were as ??? as we are, now, 
there might be panic and...

1281
01:42:10,751 --> 01:42:17,751
... I know you will oppose it, ????
that´s not my point of view

1282
01:42:17,751 --> 01:42:23,071
you know, bring it on, so we can all ????? better place

1283
01:42:23,071 --> 01:42:31,471
I just, sometimes, like... I was reading ?????
They´re all like in Lala land, but, maybe it´s good.

1284
01:42:32,709 --> 01:42:41,789

People in California aren´t freaking out, they are ????

1285
01:42:41,880 --> 01:42:46,720
Right. So. You´re sort of the ??? the government
and the corporate media´s approach:

1286
01:42:46,732 --> 01:42:50,732
just don´t tell them anything that maters.
-Well, yeah, I guess I am,

1287
01:42:50,732 --> 01:42:55,722
-Keep them ??? and they´ll be happy,
because ignorance is bliss.

1288
01:42:56,077 --> 01:43:04,757
Why do we have a ??? state? Why do we have a media, if not to inform? Why do we have governments if not to lead?

1289
01:43:05,857 --> 01:43:07,977
- To steal!

1290
01:43:09,621 --> 01:43:13,621
I hate when people tell the truth. 
That´s supposed to be my job!

1291
01:43:13,908 --> 01:43:18,946
- I love being here because I am so depressed about all the stuff and it's great to have somebody like, you now...

1292
01:43:18,946 --> 01:43:22,373
Yeah, and generate a whole community
of like-minded people.

1293
01:43:28,831 --> 01:43:32,277
People ask me all the time when I'm done
"Do you own stock ???"

1294
01:43:34,027 --> 01:43:36,368
"Because I really want to drink now."

1295
01:43:39,314 --> 01:43:40,658
Yes Robin?

1296
01:43:41,070 --> 01:43:46,425
So, this collapse, if you can bring if on,

1297
01:43:46,425 --> 01:43:49,217
the paper by Brad Werner?

1298
01:43:49,217 --> 01:43:53,345
"Earth Fucked", ...

1299
01:43:54,119 --> 01:44:03,836
he says the only...he did a mathematical model of a couple of human environment systems,

1300
01:44:03,836 --> 01:44:07,831
and the way the mathematical model is playing out,

1301
01:44:07,831 --> 01:44:13,127
it is that if we wait for some top-down answer... it's not coming,

1302
01:44:13,761 --> 01:44:18,021
and, chances are, he says, "Earth is Fucked", that's it.

1303
01:44:19,040 --> 01:44:24,294
But... the point that's uncertain in his model is...

1304
01:44:25,578 --> 01:44:32,789
the one thing that might make some kind of difference, I don't know if it would be enough to save anybody, but

1305
01:44:33,513 --> 01:44:36,948
the actually only thing that might make a difference is

1306
01:44:36,948 --> 01:44:44,313
if there is just a massive bottom-up to bring down civilization...

1307
01:44:45,386 --> 01:44:54,515
within the next 5 years. Within the next 5 years it has to be complete or there is no - and there might already be enough -

1308
01:44:55,014 --> 01:45:04,296
but, in his model, how do you feel about bottom-up, bringing it down in the next 5 years,

1309
01:45:05,607 --> 01:45:13,573
would there be a way that we grow enough food for a few Adams and Eves, to keep the insanity going?

1310
01:45:22,212 --> 01:45:24,548
??? finally shows up.

1311
01:45:27,317 --> 01:45:33,053
I think it's a great idea, terminating industrial civilization, has been foremost on my mind for years.

1312
01:45:33,625 --> 01:45:37,692
Yes I think that's ingenious,
no I don't think it will matter for our species.

1313
01:45:38,717 --> 01:45:43,297
I think we're already done. We're just walking around to save on the funeral expenses.

1314
01:45:44,804 --> 01:45:47,933
Not easy to bury a species, you know;
that shit costs money

1315
01:45:49,815 --> 01:45:51,826
And we are all about the money.

1316
01:45:55,925 --> 01:45:58,474
Have you been filming this whole time?

1317
01:45:58,933 --> 01:46:01,711
I said these horrible things about my ???

1318
01:46:02,433 --> 01:46:05,326
We're gonna have to edit that up, by the way.

1319
01:46:10,426 --> 01:46:14,568
Thank you all for coming, I'll stay here as long as you want, don't forget to get a copy of "Going Dark"...