0:00:23.239,0:00:26.158
It will be a short delay until I figure out[br]what the hell am I doing.

0:00:27.880,0:00:30.162
Oh wait, there will be ???

0:00:32.150,0:00:34.042
- We've got time.

0:00:37.544,0:00:39.566
- Do we?

0:01:02.418,0:01:16.451
"More than any other time in history, mankind faces a crossroad. One path leads to despair and utter hopelessness. The other, to total extinction. Let us pray we have the wisdom to choose correctly." - Woody Allen

0:01:17.097,0:01:19.756
- He was kidding.

0:01:20.925,0:01:22.911
I'm not.

0:01:23.791,0:01:27.331
It looks like we did not choose correctly.

0:01:30.550,0:01:32.017
After all,

0:01:32.126,0:01:38.602
there have been no humans on Earth when the global average temperature was 3,5°C above baseline.

0:01:39.580,0:01:44.454
2 million years of human experience,[br]all less than 3,5°C above baseline;

0:01:44.573,0:01:48.042
baseline being the beginning of Industrial Revolution.

0:01:48.648,0:01:53.402
We are headed for more than 3,5°C[br]above baseline, in the near future.

0:01:53.567,0:01:57.040
Human extinction will not resolve[br]because we are not clever.

0:01:57.230,0:02:00.768
It's not as if we can't handle temperature swings;

0:02:00.938,0:02:04.426
you came from outside, inside is way more than 3,5°C,

0:02:04.576,0:02:07.547
it's closer than 10°C or 15°C, that's not the issue.

0:02:08.619,0:02:13.620
The issue is habitat. We´re human animals,[br]as with all other animals,

0:02:13.692,0:02:17.673
we need habitat to survive[br]and that habitat has to include food.

0:02:17.852,0:02:21.893
And it's difficult for me to imagine [br]a world in which we'll have food,

0:02:22.111,0:02:26.350
for humans, at say 3,5 or 4°C above baseline.

0:02:26.573,0:02:33.000
Especially in the relatively near future[br]that will bring us that 3,5°C or 4°C.

0:02:33.891,0:02:38.619
John Davis, writes at the Arctic Methane Emergency Group,[br]last September concluded,

0:02:38.829,0:02:44.495
based only on CO2 in the atmosphere: "The world is probably at the start of a runaway Greenhouse Event

0:02:44.655,0:02:48.141
which will end most human life on Earth before 2040."

0:02:48.294,0:02:54.848
He is only contemplating one[br]greenhouse gas, Carbon Dioxide (CO2).

0:02:55.028,0:02:59.355
And, as reported by NASA a couple of days ago,

0:02:59.525,0:03:05.069
we're at carbon dioxide levels that are likely higher[br]than they've been for the last 20 million years.

0:03:05.289,0:03:08.020
For 2 million years[br]there has been humans on the planet.

0:03:08.180,0:03:11.824
We're at nearly 400 ppm[br]of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere.

0:03:12.024,0:03:16.911
In the beginning of the Industrial Revolution[br]we were at 280 ppm (parts per million).

0:03:17.321,0:03:22.384
So, this is a huge change[br]in atmospheric chemistry.

0:03:24.770,0:03:28.408
If we input some of the[br]self-reinforcing feedback loops,

0:03:28.558,0:03:34.404
associated with the so far[br]0.85°C rise in temperature,

0:03:35.004,0:03:39.601
instead of as John Davis did, which is to ignore those[br]and focus only on carbon dioxide,

0:03:39.751,0:03:44.368
if we include some of those feedbacks, according to Paul Beckwith, climate scientist at the University of Otawa,

0:03:44.528,0:03:49.560
we are headed to 6°C within a decade.[br]6°C from the current level.

0:03:51.450,0:03:55.566
About a year later, back with double down...[br]ok double and a half,

0:03:55.796,0:04:00.899
he said that we can expect up to 16°C increase[br]within a decade or two.

0:04:01.049,0:04:08.756
And he is basing these projections[br]on paleoclimatic information.

0:04:09.106,0:04:11.415
So, for example,

0:04:11.685,0:04:16.535
according to Science, one of the more reputable[br]journals in the scientific community,

0:04:16.730,0:04:22.797
climate change is on track to it for 10 times faster[br]than at any time during the last 65 million years.

0:04:23.097,0:04:26.901
Within that 65 million years is an event 55 million years ago,

0:04:27.061,0:04:32.625
which is a 5°C rise within 13 years, global average.

0:04:32.765,0:04:37.484
10 times faster than that is 50°C rise in 13 years;

0:04:37.664,0:04:40.533
or maybe a 5°C in 1,3 years;

0:04:40.763,0:04:44.764
either is enough to remove habitat[br]for all humans on the planet.

0:04:47.416,0:04:50.862
It's happening, and a lot faster than most people think.

0:04:51.084,0:04:55.287
A little bit more evidence, according to a paper [br]on the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences,

0:04:55.467,0:04:59.211
as one of the premier journals[br]in the world on science,

0:04:59.401,0:05:02.063
from 5 years ago,

0:05:02.381,0:05:09.036
we will remain at or above the current carbon dioxide (CO2) level for at least the next thousand years.

0:05:09.299,0:05:16.501
We are at 396ppm of CO2 right now and we will be, at a minimum, with 396ppm for at least the next 1000 years.

0:05:16.692,0:05:19.661
Contrast that with the message of 350.org

0:05:19.821,0:05:24.498
which indicates we will get down to 350ppm[br]if we just use a civilised approach to it by mid century;

0:05:24.647,0:05:29.753
the middle of this century. That's not gonna happen, it can't happen, it's physically impossible.

0:05:29.912,0:05:32.892
But 350.org is not gonna tell you that.

0:05:35.438,0:05:38.286
According to the UN Environment Programme, during 2008,

0:05:38.456,0:05:42.701
it was the dire year of the Great Recession, remember when we started calling them "recessions",

0:05:42.861,0:05:46.483
because the Prozac Nation[br]can't handle the word "depression"?

0:05:46.652,0:05:50.599
I mean, it was a Great depression, wasn't it?[br]At least for me, I don't know about you?

0:05:50.750,0:05:52.635
It was... awesome!

0:05:53.330,0:06:00.423
At any event, it was in that catastrophic year of the Great Recession, that the global CO2 emissions actually increased

0:06:00.543,0:06:05.725
to their highest level since we enacted[br]the Clean Air Act in this country, in 1980.

0:06:05.885,0:06:08.519
But that was nothing compared to 2009,

0:06:08.689,0:06:12.109
when carbon emissions increased[br]to a new record setting level.

0:06:12.299,0:06:16.201
And in 2010, when they exceeded[br]that previous record setting level,

0:06:16.371,0:06:21.328
likewise for 2010, 2011 and 2012,[br]and we just found out about 2013,

0:06:21.488,0:06:26.226
every year, every single year, we set[br]new records for greenhouse gas emissions,

0:06:26.366,0:06:31.562
and we are at the midst of a[br]global economic recession, at best.

0:06:32.372,0:06:36.658
It's clear, at this point,[br]that civilization is a heat engine.

0:06:36.818,0:06:40.880
And from a great paper[br]by Timothy Garrett in climatic change,

0:06:41.100,0:06:44.083
"Only a complete collapse[br]prevents runaway climate change."

0:06:44.233,0:06:49.016
We have know this for years.[br]And by "collapse", what Garrett means is

0:06:49.206,0:06:54.877
no fuel at the filling stations, no food at the grocery stores, no water coming out of municipal taps.

0:06:55.057,0:07:00.793
If we wanted to have habitat for humans,[br]in the not too distant future,

0:07:02.098,0:07:07.124
the understanding in 2009,[br]when the paper was published,

0:07:07.314,0:07:11.153
was that we needed to[br]completely collapse industrial civilization.

0:07:11.348,0:07:14.391
And I don't know anybody[br]who sign up for that, by the way.

0:07:14.562,0:07:19.139
And I can't imagine a politician[br]running on that campaign.

0:07:19.805,0:07:22.112
I can just see,

0:07:22.492,0:07:25.539
two presidential candidates in debate:

0:07:25.839,0:07:28.778
"No, I can collapse it faster than you can."

0:07:29.362,0:07:33.177
"No, but I can have the lights out[br]by a week after I'm elected."

0:07:33.682,0:07:35.325
Right.

0:07:37.136,0:07:41.651
According to a paper in the Astrophysical Journal - yes, even astrophysicists are talking about climate change -

0:07:41.823,0:07:46.115
the Earth is within 1% of inhabitability.

0:07:47.449,0:07:50.115
That's not very far.

0:07:50.305,0:07:54.321
So, for the entire enterprise of astrophysicists,

0:07:54.521,0:07:57.818
it was assumed that Earth was[br]in the middle of the habitable zone.

0:07:57.948,0:08:00.662
Here is the habitable zone[br]for stars of different sizes.

0:08:00.822,0:08:05.691
So, for a star of our size, the astrophysicists[br]used to thought Earth was right there,

0:08:05.821,0:08:10.903
in the middle of the habitable zone,[br]for the entire discipline of astrophysics.

0:08:11.453,0:08:13.927
But then, somebody actually looked,

0:08:14.117,0:08:19.104
and discovered, last March, that actually[br]Earth is in the inner edge of the habitable zone,

0:08:19.274,0:08:22.757
within 1% of being uninhabitable.

0:08:22.927,0:08:27.311
Mars is here, Venus is somewhere distant from Earth[br]as Earth is form Mars;

0:08:27.461,0:08:31.127
Venus is about right there,[br]and we what happened to Venus´ atmosphere.

0:08:31.317,0:08:33.169
It got striped away.

0:08:33.919,0:08:36.233
What this suggests is that

0:08:36.383,0:08:41.667
with minor changes in the Earth's atmosphere,[br]we can go Venus.

0:08:42.617,0:08:45.692
Well guess what! We haven't made[br]minor changes in the Earth's atmosphere,

0:08:45.862,0:08:48.286
we have done major changes in the Earth's atmosphere.

0:08:48.455,0:08:54.423
We have gone from 280ppm to 400ppm,[br]nearly 400ppm in CO2, in the atmosphere.

0:08:54.633,0:08:58.353
That's one of a handful of greenhouse gases.[br]Another one is methane.

0:08:58.513,0:09:02.177
Methane was 700ppb before the[br]beginning of the industrial revolution,

0:09:02.347,0:09:06.225
it's now about 2000 parts per billion (ppb);[br]nearly tripled...

0:09:06.357,0:09:10.477
the level of methane, as we observed[br]in the beginning of the Industrial Revolution.

0:09:10.677,0:09:15.328
How bigger deal is methane, it's about 100 times more powerful greenhouse gas than carbon dioxide,

0:09:15.478,0:09:19.410
molecule per molecule. 100 times in the short term,[br]meaning less than 20 years.

0:09:19.580,0:09:24.077
It's only about 20 times more powerful than CO2[br]over a 100 years or so but,

0:09:24.237,0:09:26.770
we don't have 100 years or so.

0:09:29.547,0:09:34.305
And finally, a little bit about that collapse, [br]that Tim Garrett wrote about.

0:09:34.525,0:09:37.451
Clive Hamilton points out in his latest book

0:09:37.667,0:09:42.591
that without the atmospheric sulphates associated[br]with industry, when collapse occurs,

0:09:42.771,0:09:45.812
Earth will be an extra 1,1°C warmer.

0:09:45.982,0:09:52.510
Add 1,1°C to the current 0,85°C[br]and we're at 1,95°C, lets call it 2.

0:09:52.738,0:09:55.797
Even collapse takes us to 2°C,

0:09:56.647,0:09:59.372
the much dreaded political target.

0:10:01.644,0:10:07.104
If the system doesn't collapse, we're at 2°C[br]within a matter of years from now...

0:10:07.534,0:10:11.996
If the system does collapse,[br]we're at 2°C within 3 days.

0:10:14.784,0:10:18.063
And they call us Homo sapiens, the wise ape.

0:10:20.122,0:10:24.682
Think that it should have been homo cavitus[br]which is the clever ape, instead.

0:10:26.166,0:10:31.264
There's this contrarian myth[br]that has been floating around since 1998,

0:10:31.434,0:10:36.574
the hottest year of global average temperature[br]based on land records,

0:10:36.804,0:10:42.193
and the myth is that[br]the climate change has slowed, has plateaued,

0:10:42.393,0:10:45.587
that based on land surface records,

0:10:45.767,0:10:52.261
we have seen a pause in climate warming,[br]the Earth's warming, since 1998.

0:10:52.641,0:10:56.276
And in fact, based on land records that's right,[br]and so people wondered for a long time:

0:10:56.446,0:11:00.067
"Where is that heat going?"[br]As it turns out it is going to the ocean.

0:11:00.837,0:11:07.159
We look at 1998 and that's where[br]heating of the oceans accelerates.

0:11:09.121,0:11:13.424
So, we figured out about a year ago[br]where that extra heat is going.

0:11:13.594,0:11:16.790
Is not going into land masses;[br]it is going into the ocean.

0:11:16.960,0:11:22.056
And finally, just less than a month ago, there's a paper[br]which came out with an explanation of that.

0:11:22.246,0:11:29.446
The general heating of the Earths surface[br]has increased the winds over the ocean

0:11:29.630,0:11:35.720
and that increased wind has allowed for more heat[br]to be sunk deeper into the oceans,

0:11:35.910,0:11:39.959
than was previously occurring.[br]If we have an El Niño event,

0:11:40.129,0:11:44.309
a bunch of that heat comes out quite suddenly[br]in a short period of time.

0:11:44.548,0:11:49.218
If we don't have an El Niño event, if we have[br]a continuous series of "La Niña" years,

0:11:49.458,0:11:55.729
than that heat stays in the ocean and warms up[br]and therefore acidifies the ocean.

0:11:55.985,0:11:59.628
Already the oceans have acidified to the extent that...

0:11:59.998,0:12:05.624
more than half of the phytoplankton in the ocean[br]has been killed within the last few decades.

0:12:06.803,0:12:11.627
Phytoplankton is the base of the marine food web[br]and it accounts for about half the food we eat.

0:12:12.454,0:12:17.059
So, if we keep this up, we are going to[br]kill all the phytoplankton.

0:12:18.107,0:12:22.700
- Doesn't that also account for about[br]2/3 of the oxygen in the atmosphere?

0:12:22.990,0:12:28.222
- It accounts almost 1 for 1 with land plants.

0:12:28.422,0:12:31.484
So, it accounts for about half of the oxygen.

0:12:31.734,0:12:35.282
And yes, it would be inconvenient[br]to not have oxygen in the atmosphere.

0:12:35.390,0:12:37.758
If that's where you're going with that question.

0:12:37.908,0:12:42.701
However, oxygen is incredibly recalcitrant[br]in the atmosphere, so...

0:12:42.881,0:12:48.808
...I suspect there would be a 1000 years or more [br]before we have oxygen levels drop down to 16%

0:12:49.008,0:12:53.314
or even 15%, in the atmosphere, [br]as opposed to the current 18%.

0:12:53.494,0:13:00.506
So, there will be a huge lag after phytoplankton die,[br]before oxygen drops to unsafe levels.

0:13:00.706,0:13:04.473
[Imperceptible question from audience]

0:13:04.678,0:13:08.481
I... I don't know. 21?

0:13:08.786,0:13:13.688
21. And 15, apparently, becomes dangerous for humans.

0:13:13.933,0:13:18.009
So, we're a long way from oxygen being dangerous.

0:13:18.241,0:13:26.681
- ??? is 11%, by asphixiation ???. Only that. Sorry.

0:13:28.903,0:13:31.154
- Are you giving advise?

0:13:31.801,0:13:34.901
I'm not even done yet!

0:13:37.023,0:13:39.969
She's making a lovius called 'The End'...

0:13:40.540,0:13:45.826
[Imperceptible question]

0:13:46.506,0:13:50.723
The heat in the ocean helps explain why Antarctica

0:13:50.833,0:13:54.630
and the Arctic are both loosing ice, yes.

0:13:54.820,0:14:00.907
And in particular in Antarctica, it hasn't been observed[br]until quite recently that the ice is melting,

0:14:01.117,0:14:07.264
and it's melting from below, so the surface ice[br]has remained approximately the same.

0:14:07.523,0:14:11.899
But the ice is melting from below[br]so we are loosing ice mass.

0:14:12.063,0:14:17.123
It's much more obvious what's going on in the Arctic;[br]the cover is being reduced as well as mass.

0:14:18.890,0:14:23.892
We'll talk a little bit about the 28[br]self-reinforcing feedback loops

0:14:24.072,0:14:28.254
that are irreversible at temporal spans[br]relevant to the human condition.

0:14:28.934,0:14:30.540
28.

0:14:30.735,0:14:34.880
And then there are 2 that are reversible,[br]if we have the political will.

0:14:35.054,0:14:41.321
And we are gonna focus primarily on methane clathrates[br]coming out of the Arctic Ocean, because

0:14:41.501,0:14:45.085
that one happened 4 years ago,[br]was reported in Science 4 years ago,

0:14:45.245,0:14:51.029
so this is the one we know the most about,[br]and we know quite a bit about it, at this point.

0:14:51.827,0:14:56.302
And then I'm gonna just list the others because,[br]at some point...

0:14:56.480,0:14:58.561
...there's no point.

0:14:58.757,0:15:02.923
At some point you realize that we fired the gatling gun[br]and the bullets are all coming

0:15:03.043,0:15:09.714
and it only takes one to put us out, so why study[br]the other 9 thousand bullets we fired.

0:15:14.871,0:15:20.481
So the Arctic hold the methane hydrates or clathrates in the shallow sea floor of the Arctic Ocean,

0:15:20.642,0:15:24.374
which are bubbling up to the surface[br]and releasing the methane into the atmosphere,

0:15:24.504,0:15:27.631
from these clathrates, these little cage structures.

0:15:27.781,0:15:32.952
That methane in the Arctic sea floor alone is...

0:15:33.132,0:15:36.387
...equivalent to a thousand to ten thousand[br]gigatons of carbon;

0:15:36.567,0:15:44.296
versus 226 gigatons that were burned[br]with fossil fuels as of March 2010.

0:15:44.713,0:15:51.896
So now we are up to 260 gigatons of fossil fuels that were burned - of carbon we burned through fossil fuels -

0:15:52.094,0:15:54.126
but, in an event,

0:15:54.296,0:16:00.648
the methane hydrates in the Arctic[br]are 4 to 40 times, roughly, the carbon equivalent

0:16:00.858,0:16:05.870
of all the carbon dioxide we burned so far[br]since the beginning of the industrial revolution.

0:16:06.310,0:16:08.901
So... it's a lot.

0:16:10.121,0:16:15.090
We now know that a minor increase in temperature[br]is sufficient to trigger the methane release,

0:16:15.856,0:16:20.516
and that's because the clathrates[br]are in the shallow sea bed;

0:16:20.696,0:16:23.976
they're not at great depth.

0:16:25.436,0:16:31.328
A 50 Gigaton "burp" of methane is highly possible and that in tons is equivalent to more than 1000 Gigatons of carbon,

0:16:31.508,0:16:34.694
or roughly 4 times of what we have burned so far.

0:16:34.842,0:16:37.792
Highly possible at any time.

0:16:37.973,0:16:43.797
Methane plumes have been observed up to 150 kilometres across, by NASAs CARVE project.

0:16:43.997,0:16:50.896
A methane plume, what that looks like is...[br]if you're in a ship out there in the Arctic ocean,

0:16:51.038,0:16:56.066
and you happen to be in the middle of a methane plume,[br]150 kilometres across,

0:16:56.206,0:17:02.243
it would be like ginger-ale bubbling out of the Arctic Ocean as far as you can see in every direction.

0:17:03.301,0:17:06.880
You wouldn't see it for very long,[br]because you'd be dead surely thereafter,

0:17:07.029,0:17:09.708
because the methane is lethal.

0:17:10.080,0:17:13.869
So, take the picture... for posterity.

0:17:16.644,0:17:22.035
Based on an analysis from this one feedback alone,

0:17:22.305,0:17:26.913
we can expect global average temperature at more than 4°C of baseline temperature by 2030,

0:17:27.089,0:17:29.802
more than 10°C by 2040.

0:17:29.947,0:17:36.130
And this is what that looks like, the same cramp kinds of polynomial curve to the existing data;

0:17:36.310,0:17:43.342
It's number 3 here, and has methane going exponential[br]out of the Arctic Ocean.

0:17:44.843,0:17:48.905
Malcolm Light's analysis concludes that[br]the Gulf Stream transport rate,

0:17:49.045,0:17:53.810
or the thermo-healing conveyor belt,[br]which drags warm Atlantic water up into the Arctic,

0:17:53.970,0:17:59.576
started the methane hydrate or clathrate gun-firing[br]in the Arctic in 2007,

0:17:59.736,0:18:07.044
when the energy per year exceeded 10 million times the energy necessary to release those clathrates.

0:18:08.090,0:18:10.231
More than 10 million times.

0:18:10.367,0:18:14.150
So, this apparently has been going since 2007;

0:18:14.300,0:18:18.460
I think that is a long enough time to conclude[br]that the clathrate gun has been firing.

0:18:18.630,0:18:23.483
The clathrate gun is what climate scientist, including James Hanson, have been worried about for a long time.

0:18:23.623,0:18:28.407
In 'Storms of my grandchildren', Hanson worried quite a bit about firing clathrate guns,

0:18:28.557,0:18:31.233
or the methane bomb; and looks like we are there.

0:18:31.369,0:18:37.306
He only know about a self-reinforcing feedback loop being triggered by looking in the review mirror.

0:18:37.456,0:18:42.038
We have about 7 years of review mirror, at this point.

0:18:44.447,0:18:49.690
This illustrates what Albert Bartlett, professor emeritus from Colorado University for many years,

0:18:49.880,0:18:54.057
described in his presentation,[br]which he gave over a thousand times.

0:18:54.218,0:19:00.181
He says "The greatest shortcoming of the human race is our inability to understand the exponential function."

0:19:00.539,0:19:06.760
We think linearly, so we think that this change,[br]so far, has been pretty linear.

0:19:07.952,0:19:10.955
But event's have gone beyond linear now.

0:19:11.123,0:19:18.613
We are no longer in the linear age in terms of change in the recent past, much less in the near future.

0:19:22.380,0:19:27.101
An example commonly used is,[br]in high-school classes, is:

0:19:27.271,0:19:31.539
you have a pond and... algae, a tiny bit of algae,

0:19:31.689,0:19:37.482
and the algae doubles in cover, everyday.

0:19:37.753,0:19:42.862
How long after the lake is half-full before it's full?

0:19:43.062,0:19:45.091
One day.

0:19:45.281,0:19:50.020
That's an example of what happens[br]with exponential function.

0:19:52.393,0:19:57.022
What this looks like as if about 3 weeks ago,[br]in terms of methane concentration,

0:19:57.196,0:20:02.985
you see heavy concentration of methane in the Arctic and over the land masses of large continents.

0:20:03.145,0:20:08.003
Siberia, where the methane is being released[br]as the permafrost melts.

0:20:08.433,0:20:11.055
Northern Canada and all through the Arctic.

0:20:11.225,0:20:16.553
The measurements have been up to about 2400 ppb[br]within the last few days.

0:20:16.733,0:20:22.590
This is 1 of the 2 reasons that habitat for humans will disappear from the Northern Hemisphere

0:20:22.780,0:20:25.731
before it disappears from the Southern Hemisphere.

0:20:25.981,0:20:30.853
The other reason is that the land to water ratio is so much higher in the Northern Hemisphere

0:20:31.013,0:20:33.427
than it is in the Southern Hemisphere,

0:20:33.587,0:20:37.710
and land mass has heat up more than[br]twice as fast as the global average.

0:20:37.874,0:20:42.489
So at 2°C rise in global average temperature means

0:20:42.619,0:20:47.244
roughly 4,5 or 5°C rise in the interior of continents.

0:20:47.414,0:20:51.309
In the south-western interior of a large continent[br]in the Northern Hemisphere,

0:20:51.389,0:20:53.361
like, say right there where I live,

0:20:53.471,0:20:59.143
you can expect habitat to disappear for humans[br]within weeks after collapse is complete;

0:20:59.314,0:21:03.165
or within weeks of hitting the 2°C global average.

0:21:03.742,0:21:07.905
All this water, relative to land, in the Southern Hemisphere

0:21:08.075,0:21:12.330
provides for a great ameliorating impact[br]in terms of temperature rise.

0:21:12.470,0:21:17.158
Not to mention the fact that there's this large continent down there that still has quite a bit of ice;

0:21:17.298,0:21:21.920
in contrast to the Arctic, where the Us Navy even predicts

0:21:22.090,0:21:26.342
that the Arctic ice will be gone by September 2016.

0:21:28.034,0:21:34.899
That's the US Navy; the headline says: the Arctic ice will disappear by 2016, 84 years ahead of schedule.

0:21:35.090,0:21:38.020
- [Laughter][br]- 84 years!

0:21:38.248,0:21:40.535
- I'm thinking: who wrote the schedule?

0:21:42.743,0:21:47.515
It's ahead of... Who wrote the schedule??[br]Did we put that on the calendar somewhere?

0:21:50.078,0:21:52.282
Journalists.

0:21:54.242,0:22:00.237
That's huge, by the way. What happens in the Arctic doesn't stay in the Arctic. It ain't Vegas.

0:22:00.430,0:22:04.637
We loose the ice in the Arctic[br]and things get really weird in a hurry.

0:22:04.832,0:22:09.635
The Arctic is the planet's ice... air conditioner.[br]Arctic Ice is the planetary conditioner.

0:22:09.875,0:22:12.013
One example,

0:22:12.170,0:22:14.510
to illustrate the point:

0:22:14.723,0:22:21.681
To melt one gram of ice into one gram of water,

0:22:22.191,0:22:24.359
at zero degrees,

0:22:24.639,0:22:28.757
- so they are both at zero degrees,[br]they are both at freezing -

0:22:28.957,0:22:33.529
to melt one gram of ice to one gram of water[br]requires 80 calories.

0:22:34.879,0:22:41.777
Take that same 80 calories, put it into the gram of water, that is now melted at zero degrees,

0:22:41.947,0:22:46.431
put in the 80 calories,[br]it goes up to 80 degrees centigrade.

0:22:48.003,0:22:51.943
When we get rid of the ice,[br]that heat starts going into the ocean,

0:22:52.133,0:22:57.123
starts warming up the ocean,[br]instead of melting ice.

0:22:57.716,0:23:02.912
When the Arctic ice is gone, an event we haven't[br]observed in the human history,

0:23:03.172,0:23:08.494
is going to produce profound changes in the temperature,[br]global average temperature.

0:23:12.064,0:23:17.593
There is one self-reinforcing feedback loop[br]presented in the ??? ?????? in 2010,

0:23:17.759,0:23:23.058
and there are 4 more,[br]discovered and reported in 2011.

0:23:23.669,0:23:29.009
One of those being Siberian methane, and methane was leaking out in Siberia as well out of land masses.

0:23:29.161,0:23:32.009
It's not just out of the Arctic,[br]it's out of land masses as well.

0:23:32.242,0:23:38.843
And in Summer 2010, those methane events were about 30cm, about a foot in diameter.

0:23:39.073,0:23:42.944
And so scientists would go out and light those on fire[br]like these Roman candles,

0:23:43.134,0:23:45.236
that just go wweeashhh, you know.

0:23:45.416,0:23:49.171
Look mum, I can light a fire.[br]This is what scientists do to get attention.

0:23:49.841,0:23:53.964
This summer of 2010, those methane events[br]are about 30 centimetres across.

0:23:54.114,0:23:58.025
Summer 2011, they're a kilometre across.

0:23:58.215,0:24:01.799
We're seeing geological events play out in real time.

0:24:02.003,0:24:05.106
We're beyond linear in terms of climate change.

0:24:05.706,0:24:11.228
So, one self-reinforcing[br]feedback loop in 2010, 4 in 2011,

0:24:11.368,0:24:13.618
the 6 in 2012...

0:24:13.798,0:24:21.298
so we are seeing an acceleration of the reporting[br]of the self-reinforcing feedback loops.

0:24:23.378,0:24:28.063
And finally, in 2013, there were these 6...

0:24:28.363,0:24:30.988
that gets us through July,

0:24:31.178,0:24:34.735
and then there were these 6,[br]that gets us through September.

0:24:34.945,0:24:39.147
And then there are these 4... so there were 16.

0:24:40.014,0:24:43.072
16 reported in 2013.

0:24:43.257,0:24:48.490
So far only 1 reported in 2014 but we're running[br]out of places to categorize these things.

0:24:48.700,0:24:53.079
We are learning a lot more about each of these[br]self-reinforcing feedback loops,

0:24:53.269,0:24:59.297
and the evidence becomes[br]increasingly dire and overwhelming.

0:25:02.811,0:25:07.180
Finally there are 2 reversible feedback loops...

0:25:07.420,0:25:10.823
...aah, we could not drill in the Arctic,

0:25:10.996,0:25:15.472
and in fact we aren't, any more. Isn't that awesome?

0:25:15.634,0:25:19.485
Shell went up there in 2012,[br]September, when they're fast tracked,

0:25:19.675,0:25:25.329
they sent the two rigs in the world deemed capable of[br]handling the weather in the Arctic,

0:25:25.499,0:25:30.394
and they were crushed.[br]Sometimes nature bats last.

0:25:30.694,0:25:35.083
And they went screen back and spent the[br]next year and a half working on them,

0:25:35.243,0:25:39.482
and they just announced, 2 weeks ago, [br]that they're not going back.

0:25:41.616,0:25:46.367
That the seas are too hight, that we don't have[br]the technology to extract that energy,

0:25:46.532,0:25:50.028
and the energy doesn't have enough energy in it,

0:25:50.168,0:25:54.517
the energy return on investment is so low[br]that it's just not worth it.

0:25:54.657,0:25:57.107
So far; we'll see if that holds.

0:25:57.267,0:26:01.656
An finally, if there's a way to save a buck,[br]we're gonna take the short-cut, right?

0:26:02.710,0:26:05.238
One of my neighbours,[br]in South-western New Mexico,

0:26:05.408,0:26:09.187
gave a presentation at a public library,[br]about two and a half weeks ago,

0:26:09.697,0:26:15.873
and he was on the first ever tanker[br]to go through the ?? at Northwest Passage.

0:26:16.113,0:26:22.882
1969! He was on an oil freighter, of course,[br]that busted it's way through the Northwest passage.

0:26:23.032,0:26:29.570
He described the experience in riveting detail,[br]it was a difficult task,

0:26:29.720,0:26:35.018
and the other boats to break out that ??[br]and it got stuck and... it was really tough going.

0:26:35.198,0:26:38.183
And now is like you can go up there in your sail boat.

0:26:38.343,0:26:42.503
Anybody in September can go through[br]the Northwest Passage now, it's open water.

0:26:42.693,0:26:46.772
It was 1969, not that long ago.

0:26:48.629,0:26:50.673
So now what?

0:26:51.507,0:26:53.897
I like to check in with the pinguins,

0:26:54.087,0:26:56.693
quick before we kill them all.

0:26:57.778,0:27:02.086
There are two responses to this kind of information.

0:27:02.326,0:27:07.949
There's the societal response, what do we do as a society,[br]and there's the individual response.

0:27:08.135,0:27:11.463
And the societal response remains the same[br]as it has always been,

0:27:11.673,0:27:17.603
"If the message is somehow [br]we are going to ignore jobs and growth

0:27:17.763,0:27:21.287
simply to address climate change,...[br]I won't go for that." (Barack Obama, 14 Nov. 2012)

0:27:21.509,0:27:26.265
And of course not, this is again in that category[br]of promoting collapse,

0:27:26.531,0:27:30.037
and no politician is going to get up on the stage and say:

0:27:30.297,0:27:34.979
collapse is gonna save our species therefore [br]we're gonna collapse the settle living arrangements.

0:27:38.611,0:27:43.197
The Obama administration surely knew[br]about this briefing

0:27:43.357,0:27:46.293
from the Alliance of Small Island States at COP15,

0:27:46.393,0:27:49.937
the Copenhagen climate change meeting[br]that they threw under the bus,

0:27:50.127,0:27:52.744
and this line comes from their report:

0:27:52.894,0:27:58.446
"The long-term sea level that corresponds to current CO2 concentration is about 23 meters above today's levels..."

0:27:58.630,0:28:03.586
This one were 385ppm of CO2 in the atmosphere;[br]we are now at 396.

0:28:03.800,0:28:07.737
"...and the temperatures will be 6 degrees C or more higher.

0:28:07.896,0:28:12.795
These estimates are based on real long-term[br]climate records, not on models."

0:28:12.965,0:28:17.090
So there is a lag between[br]CO2 emissions and temperature,

0:28:17.280,0:28:20.413
or in the past,[br]between temperature and CO2 emissions.

0:28:20.583,0:28:26.096
When the catching up is done, to 385ppm of CO2,

0:28:26.306,0:28:32.248
it's gonna produce conditions which are[br]unsuitable for humans to survive.

0:28:35.475,0:28:40.433
So then, in terms of individual response, I'd like to turn to the moral philosopher Bruce Springsteen,

0:28:40.586,0:28:42.315
for my advise.

0:28:42.488,0:28:46.290
"In the end what you don't surrender,[br]well the world just strips away"

0:28:46.453,0:28:50.442
Or lets say it like a Zen Buddhist, "Let go or be dragged".

0:28:50.628,0:28:55.824
The near future will not be like the recent past.

0:28:58.470,0:29:01.470
Or Carpe Diem, seize the day.

0:29:02.384,0:29:07.031
When I speak at college campuses,[br]the students point out after my presentation

0:29:07.191,0:29:09.951
that I'm pronouncing this incorrectly.

0:29:10.132,0:29:12.633
It's actually crappy diem.

0:29:13.238,0:29:15.766
As in "You ruined my day."

0:29:16.902,0:29:20.647
Or from Nietzsche, "live as though the day were here"[br]to which I would add one thing,

0:29:20.807,0:29:26.025
that's from the philosopher that pre-dated Nietzsche[br]by a couple thousand years,

0:29:26.385,0:29:30.563
Hippocrates, from the 'Hippocratic Oath':[br]"First, do no harm".

0:29:32.353,0:29:37.196
And finally, from the poet Leon Staff[br]in the 'Warsaw Ghetto'

0:29:37.937,0:29:43.961
"Even more than bread we now need poetry,[br]in a time that it seems that it is not needed at all."

0:29:47.642,0:29:51.446
We had science and technology for quite a long time,

0:29:52.456,0:29:57.235
and the technology produced by[br]the knowledge that comes from science

0:29:57.430,0:30:00.127
has been catastrophic.

0:30:00.255,0:30:04.497
Let's take the window berry brow,[br]do some poetry now.

0:30:06.214,0:30:08.764
I always finished like a Hollywood movie.

0:30:09.452,0:30:11.644
I have really good news...

0:30:11.772,0:30:16.072
You get to die.[br][DNA assures our unique stature (i.e., you get to die)]

0:30:16.198,0:30:18.400
Isn't that awesome?

0:30:18.490,0:30:21.458
It is, it means you got to live;[br]and the odds against you living,

0:30:21.608,0:30:24.756
the odds against this collection of DNA being present,

0:30:24.926,0:30:31.960
exceed the odds against plucking at random[br]a single atom from the entire Universe.

0:30:32.970,0:30:37.211
We know a lot about DNA, we know roughly how many atoms there are in the Universe:

0:30:37.346,0:30:41.275
between 10^80 and 10^100 atoms in the universe.

0:30:41.436,0:30:44.965
The odds against you being here,[br]you being in this physical form,

0:30:45.105,0:30:49.095
your DNA appearing in this collection,[br]in this human body,

0:30:49.285,0:30:56.102
any time, ever, exceed by far the odds against plucking a single atom from the entire Universe.

0:30:56.286,0:31:00.496
If I believed in miracles I would think we all were one.

0:31:00.785,0:31:04.061
It's incredible! We get to die.

0:31:04.261,0:31:07.159
And that means, we get to live.

0:31:07.829,0:31:10.840
As the evolutionary biologist Richard Dawkins said:

0:31:11.010,0:31:15.833
"In the teeth of these stupefying odds,[br]it is you and I that are privileged to be here,

0:31:15.953,0:31:20.707
privileged with eyes to see where we are[br]and brains to wonder why."

0:31:20.883,0:31:22.726
Nobody else gets to do this.

0:31:22.896,0:31:25.190
And I'll add something else:

0:31:26.059,0:31:28.502
We are here at the end.

0:31:28.733,0:31:32.156
Everybody else you've ever known[br]checked out before the movie was over.

0:31:32.255,0:31:33.328
- Oh shit!

0:31:33.465,0:31:36.736
- And we get to be here AT THE END.

0:31:37.511,0:31:40.479
If that isn't awesome I don't know what is.

0:31:42.814,0:31:49.344
And this is amazing because we are the last human beings to get to display our humanity,

0:31:49.535,0:31:53.444
to get to demonstrate the best[br]of what it means to be human.

0:31:54.089,0:31:57.108
We get to act as if we're in hospice[br]because we are.

0:31:57.436,0:32:00.172
Because the whole planet is at this point,

0:32:00.372,0:32:05.242
including the species that remain, after we drive 200 species to extinction every day.

0:32:05.465,0:32:07.353
The whole planet is in hospice.

0:32:07.502,0:32:11.314
When I see people in hospice[br]I don't see people grumping for another dollar.

0:32:11.514,0:32:13.663
I see people giving things away.

0:32:13.778,0:32:17.600
I don't see people hoarding,[br]I see people giving of themselves.

0:32:17.810,0:32:20.885
I see people acting with kindness and compassion,

0:32:21.045,0:32:23.856
and going out with some ??? of dignity.

0:32:24.966,0:32:26.542
Let's try that!

0:32:26.688,0:32:30.002
Even if all the data are wrong; even if I'm wrong.

0:32:31.331,0:32:33.530
Wouldn't that be something?

0:32:33.673,0:32:37.043
Wouldn't that be a pretty reasonable way to live?

0:32:37.591,0:32:39.225
I think so.

0:32:39.426,0:32:42.154
But I've been called some funny names.

0:32:42.353,0:32:46.730
Things that we might pursue in hospice,[br]and here is the typical CEO response:

0:32:46.900,0:32:51.636
"And so, while the end-of-the-world scenario[br]will be rife with unimaginable horrors,

0:32:51.796,0:32:56.874
we believe that the pre-end period will be filled with unprecedented opportunities for profit."

0:32:57.441,0:33:00.684
[Laughter]

0:33:00.970,0:33:03.888
So, this is the Goldman Sachs approach.

0:33:04.039,0:33:06.669
I mean, this is ???

0:33:07.118,0:33:09.056
and Jamie Diamond,

0:33:09.216,0:33:15.359
and the people who apparently just love money[br]so much that they must have more.

0:33:15.522,0:33:19.115
This is the 85 people on the planet...

0:33:19.410,0:33:25.617
...who have much net financial worth as...[br]half of the people in the planet.

0:33:27.391,0:33:31.735
But I don't think this would be anybody in this room[br]or you wouldn't be in this room.

0:33:31.869,0:33:33.918
There's money to be made out there.

0:33:34.058,0:33:37.732
Still money to be made in planetary destruction;[br]get out there and get after it!

0:33:37.872,0:33:40.538
No, I don't think this is us.I think...

0:33:40.728,0:33:44.623
I think we are the people who actually might be interested in pursuing something different than that,

0:33:44.773,0:33:49.847
something other than fiat currency, like:[br]we might pursue love, in lives of excellence.

0:33:50.460,0:33:54.989
And by lives of excellence I am thinking here[br]of Socrates and his approach.

0:33:55.181,0:33:58.107
He spent an entire life asking 6 questions.

0:33:58.289,0:34:03.667
6 questions! That's all, he just went around asking people questions; 6 questions at various forms.

0:34:04.316,0:34:06.428
What is courage?

0:34:06.578,0:34:08.344
What is good?

0:34:08.574,0:34:10.426
What is justice?

0:34:10.536,0:34:13.892
What is moderation? What is piety? What is virtue?

0:34:14.013,0:34:15.604
6 questions.

0:34:15.766,0:34:19.326
After 7 years they killed him for it.[br]We should be so lucky.

0:34:20.138,0:34:23.942
To ????? so much that we... just by asking questions,

0:34:24.132,0:34:27.078
the state can't tolerate us anymore.

0:34:27.249,0:34:31.126
What a way to go! Nobody gets out alive.

0:34:31.595,0:34:34.743
So that's a life of excelence; and pursuing love,[br]pursuing those we love.

0:34:34.903,0:34:38.834
I´m thinking about your children, your grandchildren, [br]the people you love spending time with,

0:34:38.984,0:34:43.664
and I'm also thinking about the living planet[br]that sustains us all.

0:34:43.984,0:34:48.986
It's a living planet that allows us to live.[br]Not the other way around.

0:34:51.646,0:34:55.140
I used to say, before the great recession really kicked in,

0:34:55.510,0:34:59.266
that if you think the economy[br]is more important then the environment,

0:34:59.426,0:35:02.538
try holding your breath while counting your money.

0:35:03.238,0:35:06.159
But then I'd speak in Michigan[br]and people would pull out their wallet,

0:35:06.329,0:35:10.464
while holding their breath, and put it back in and say:[br]"what else do you got?"

0:35:11.403,0:35:13.962
They didn't take but a couple of minutes.

0:35:14.122,0:35:17.270
Because in Michigan they're in the front line of collapse.

0:35:18.289,0:35:21.008
I think we can do better than what we've been doing.

0:35:22.654,0:35:26.631
Occasionally people despair,[br]while hearing me speak...

0:35:27.342,0:35:29.492
[Laughter]

0:35:30.698,0:35:33.227
Astonishing, I know.

0:35:33.378,0:35:36.655
Or from the ??? ???: "Inconceivable!"

0:35:38.238,0:35:41.751
To which I respond:[br]The action is the antidote to despair.

0:35:41.909,0:35:45.807
Even if, especially if,

0:35:47.238,0:35:49.900
our actions don't matter in the long run.

0:35:50.080,0:35:55.071
What better judge of our character[br]than our willingness and ability to act?

0:35:55.272,0:35:59.517
I once read that the best judgement of a man's character - obviously this wasn't written by a man -

0:35:59.658,0:36:04.421
the best judgement of a man's character is what he can do for those who do nothing for him.

0:36:04.559,0:36:09.624
What he does for those who can do nothing for him.

0:36:10.208,0:36:13.883
So think about that. Think about people[br]who can't do nothing for you.

0:36:14.040,0:36:19.081
You have power over them, and yet you treat them with kindness and dignity and compassion.

0:36:19.241,0:36:23.318
And we can do that... about everything.

0:36:23.528,0:36:28.358
It's not just about our character, it's about everything we do; it's about our humanity.

0:36:28.511,0:36:31.310
Action is the antidote to despair.

0:36:31.500,0:36:36.457
Is iconoclastic, ??????? pointed out[br]years and years ago

0:36:37.670,0:36:41.595
So, if you're damned if you do[br]and damned if you don't,

0:36:41.772,0:36:44.886
then do! What do you got to loose?

0:36:45.046,0:36:47.105
What do we got to loose?

0:36:47.275,0:36:49.820
Let's do something!

0:36:50.942,0:36:54.897
Even if ultimately it wont make any difference.

0:36:55.329,0:37:00.225
We are judged only by ourselves.[br]There is no History left to judge us anymore.

0:37:04.359,0:37:07.761
If you wanna learn more about my writting,

0:37:08.159,0:37:11.663
and how could you not,[br][Laughter]

0:37:13.679,0:37:18.458
I write profusely at 'Nature Bats Last', guymcpherson.com

0:37:18.604,0:37:24.201
and I write a monthly essay for 'Transition Voice since the ??? was found dead about 4 years ago,

0:37:24.386,0:37:29.583
and my latest effort is with a couple[br]of other teachers and homesteaders

0:37:29.833,0:37:33.340
in preparing people for an ambiguous future.

0:37:36.816,0:37:40.927
Finally, my latest book is called 'Going Dark',[br]and I have copies here.

0:37:41.080,0:37:45.437
I promote in practice a gift economy, which means[br]you can just take one if you want.

0:37:45.607,0:37:49.964
There are also bookmarks; laminated bookmarks.

0:37:50.114,0:37:53.281
And the bookmarks have, most importantly,

0:37:53.421,0:37:56.308
this url on them.

0:37:56.498,0:38:00.894
So, there's an essay in 'Going Dark' that starts on page 85,

0:38:01.094,0:38:06.270
that describes the dire nature of the climate situation. [br]I've only given just a brief overview here.

0:38:06.570,0:38:13.482
And all this information can be found with links, at:[br]guymcpherson.com/climate-chaos/

0:38:13.645,0:38:19.652
That url is on these bookmarks, so by all means[br]take a bookmark, take a book,

0:38:19.832,0:38:24.883
if you wanna give me a gift back[br]you can give me fiat currency, but...

0:38:25.572,0:38:28.467
but I'm not asking for that.[br]If you want, give me a gift.

0:38:28.612,0:38:32.910
Sometimes when I speak at college campuses, nobody has any money, of course specially college students;

0:38:33.070,0:38:37.247
they owe their entire life savings,[br]forever, to the federal government,

0:38:37.377,0:38:39.889
just for the privilege of going to school,

0:38:40.079,0:38:43.200
so, frequently they give me pieces of art.

0:38:43.777,0:38:48.337
But, last time that I spoke in a college campus[br]it was in Winnipeg,

0:38:48.556,0:38:53.257
and I complained that I would sign books[br]but I don't have a pen,

0:38:53.421,0:38:56.837
and so the first guy says "Here,[br]you can have my pen. I'll take a book."

0:38:56.987,0:39:00.560
So, sounds great! Thoughtfull.[br]Some people are clever.

0:39:02.659,0:39:06.926
I would be... ecstatic[br]to entertain your questions, or comments,

0:39:07.097,0:39:10.205
and at this point, of course,[br]answers are particularly welcome.

0:39:10.370,0:39:14.446
Thank you very much attention and,[br]please, lets have a discussion.

0:39:14.727,0:39:21.342
[Applause]

0:39:22.209,0:39:24.501
Thank you! Can we turn the lights up?

0:39:24.956,0:39:26.693
All the way in the back there?

0:39:26.937,0:39:32.027
- Do you see any possibilities for a mass-scale investment in carbon sequestration,

0:39:32.027,0:39:37.239
soils, trees, plants,[br]in a time scale that could make a difference?

0:39:39.816,0:39:43.656
I heard a trillion tree programme ??? ???

0:39:44.040,0:39:50.459
- Right... - ...and soils; those sequestred[br]in a time frame that may yet be relevant?

0:39:50.856,0:39:52.727
- No. - O.K.

0:39:53.065,0:39:56.284
- And a primary reason for that is...

0:39:56.284,0:40:01.870
it's gonna require an enormous amount[br]of fossil fuel energy to plant trees,

0:40:01.870,0:40:06.803
and to transport the water to the desert where that project proposes planting those trees.

0:40:08.932,0:40:15.547
In addition, the time is so short,[br]we are talking a decade and a half.

0:40:16.571,0:40:21.454
To implement change, trees just are not gonna grow that fast and sequester that much carbon.

0:40:21.753,0:40:24.354
In addition, they are carbon neutral.

0:40:25.432,0:40:29.695
You plant the trees, they grow, they sequester the carbon, and then what happens for them?

0:40:29.992,0:40:34.349
- They die. - That's right, they die, and almost all that carbon is released back up to the atmosphere.

0:40:34.349,0:40:39.248
They fix some in the soils, in ???, depends on the ecosystem how much they fix in the soils...

0:40:39.248,0:40:44.889
But I don't see that; and I read about this data that this essay, with few likes.

0:40:45.786,0:40:49.807
Aaahm... right up here. Maybe not.[br]Go ahead.

0:40:50.103,0:40:56.805
- Did you say that link that...That link will have information from your presentation, or?

0:40:56.805,0:41:03.586
- Yes. All the information I presented here[br]is included there, and there´s links to everything I said.

0:41:03.586,0:41:04.682
- O.K.

0:41:04.682,0:41:11.343
- So, this is the single best source of what's going on[br]in the real world of climate change.

0:41:12.023,0:41:16.916
-O.K. I have a second question.Earlier you were talking about positive feedback loops,

0:41:17.335,0:41:23.357
and I was just wondering if the ones you listed, you said there was two that we could change,

0:41:23.357,0:41:26.057
'reversible', and there were 16, was it?

0:41:26.057,0:41:29.322
- 28. - Oh, 28, yeah, right, yeah.

0:41:29.322,0:41:34.653
The ones you listed... I mean... what about like...

0:41:35.258,0:41:39.385
the plankton that dies and[br]the carbon that's released from that,

0:41:39.385,0:41:42.992
and that's like a sink, and then like the... I don't know...

0:41:42.992,0:41:47.785
- I love it when I´m the most[br]optimistic person in the room!

0:41:47.785,0:41:49.956
[Laughter][br]-Yeah, and then there's a...

0:41:49.956,0:41:54.476
- Yeah, these are the ones that are reported in sort of the mainstream scientific arena.

0:41:54.891,0:41:59.688
And there may well be others that people haven't thought over, that we haven't documented yet.

0:42:00.044,0:42:03.670
Like the fact that all those phytoplanktons are gonna die

0:42:03.670,0:42:07.424
and are gonna be unable[br]to fix the carbon they're fixing now.

0:42:07.997,0:42:09.106
- Right.

0:42:09.811,0:42:12.137
- Yeah. You're a happy good lucky guy, I can tell.

0:42:12.715,0:42:15.125
You love the fun of the party, aren't you?[br][Laughter]

0:42:15.816,0:42:22.494
- I have read climate scientists who don't ??? ??? [br]I read Hanson, Kevin Anderson...

0:42:22.494,0:42:29.359
none of them, so far that I have known, predict that human beings are gong to be extinct in 15 years

0:42:29.621,0:42:32.577
[imperceptible]

0:42:33.027,0:42:35.331
- Yes, that's right

0:42:35.720,0:42:38.858
- Why?. What facts do you have[br]that we're not hearing from other scientists?

0:42:39.092,0:42:43.229
- Almost nobody is willing to admit[br]that the clathrate gun has been fired.

0:42:43.421,0:42:47.473
That includes Hanson. Although Hanson made[br]a major shift within the last month.

0:42:47.669,0:42:53.398
Up until a month ago, he said that[br]2°C is a relevant target,

0:42:53.675,0:42:59.061
and less than a month ago, he said 1°C; we can not possibly go beyond 1°C.

0:42:59.061,0:43:05.202
As we've known since the United Nations (UN) [br]greenhouse gas task force reported,

0:43:05.202,0:43:09.382
in October 1990, that we can't go over 1°C[br]or it's gonna be utter catastrophe.

0:43:09.382,0:43:14.478
Well, it turns out that we have our utter catastrophe with the self-reinforcing feedback loops at .85

0:43:14.977,0:43:16.847
Earlier than expected.

0:43:16.847,0:43:20.004
Kevin Anderson is the guy in the UK that doesn't fly,

0:43:20.004,0:43:25.578
...and he is the person who comes[br]the closest to anybody I know

0:43:25.578,0:43:28.059
who still has a job who speaks truth to power.

0:43:29.022,0:43:32.439
So, I have great respect for him[br]and great respect for James Hanson,

0:43:32.439,0:43:35.564
although James Hanson is still on the nuclear phase

0:43:35.564,0:43:40.174
unaware that recent scientific[br]literature indicates that

0:43:40.174,0:43:46.632
nuclear power plants are not carbon neutral,[br]they actually produce fossil fuel carbon

0:43:46.812,0:43:52.405
to build them, and get them going; over their life span,[br]they are carbon intensive.

0:43:53.370,0:43:57.836
So, I think Hanson is behind the time.

0:43:59.586,0:44:02.474
Yes, he has been outspoken for a long time,

0:44:02.474,0:44:05.801
but I don't think he has kept up[br]with the relevant literature.

0:44:07.914,0:44:10.638
- What are your thoughts about Fukushima?

0:44:10.638,0:44:13.303
- What are my thoughts about Fukushima?

0:44:14.503,0:44:16.720
I think it was probably a bad idea.

0:44:17.138,0:44:20.072
[Laughter]

0:44:21.271,0:44:23.805
I wasn't done with my sentence...

0:44:26.754,0:44:32.358
Who's that actor? That guy... when he gets a script he throws out all the punctuation?

0:44:32.358,0:44:34.788
[Imperceptable]

0:44:34.788,0:44:36.402
Maybe him too, but it´s not...

0:44:36.402,0:44:38.166
Christopher Walken!

0:44:38.166,0:44:41.142
Christopher Walken throws out the punctuation[br]and that's why...

0:44:41.441,0:44:44.903
he has these unusual gaps in the way he speaks.

0:44:44.903,0:44:47.854
He doesn't make a lot of sense, sometimes.

0:44:47.955,0:44:50.493
He's a funny guy!

0:44:50.493,0:44:53.192
But I digress.

0:44:53.477,0:44:56.291
I think it's a bad idea to...

0:44:56.927,0:45:03.488
...to implement a programme so that we can boil water

0:45:04.126,0:45:08.598
without having the slightest clue[br]of what to do with the waste product.

0:45:09.502,0:45:13.985
Waste products that last millions of years,[br]in the case of plutonium.

0:45:13.985,0:45:18.821
There has never been a human structure[br]to last longer than 50 thousand years.

0:45:19.790,0:45:23.622
We're so filled with uberess that we think "oh, we'll fix that; we'll solve that later."

0:45:23.622,0:45:27.946
So in 1939, when the nuclear age begin, we just assumed someone would fix that down the road.

0:45:27.946,0:45:30.918
Guess what, nobody fixed it.

0:45:31.883,0:45:37.553
There is a paper presented at[br]American Geophysical Union meetings...

0:45:38.401,0:45:41.562
aahm, Robin: what's the guy's name?[br]- Brad Werner.

0:45:42.137,0:45:47.055
Brad Werner; if he was in Germany it would be Verner.[br]But he's Brad Werner.

0:45:47.055,0:45:51.030
And the title of his talk was "Is Earth Fucked".

0:45:51.688,0:45:52.821
[Laughter]

0:45:54.295,0:45:57.792
And I think he.... yeah. I mean he did answered it.

0:45:58.745,0:46:02.024
But it's pretty clear that because of cluster Fukushima...

0:46:03.255,0:46:06.768
somewhere such events, I mean, [br]just consider Fukushima,

0:46:06.768,0:46:15.558
which according to Hellen Calicut, Arnic Anderson [br]and David Suzuki and other nuclear folks,

0:46:15.558,0:46:23.334
Fukushima alone represents a significant threat[br]to human habitat in the Northern Hemisphere.

0:46:23.509,0:46:26.761
There is four hundred and forty some[br]nuclear power plants around the world

0:46:27.055,0:46:31.820
and so if we collapse the settled living arrangements,[br]if we stop,

0:46:31.820,0:46:35.763
if we get that president that stands up and says [br]"I'm gonna have lights out by the day after tomorrow",

0:46:36.314,0:46:40.164
and we actually pull that off, [br]than we could have stopped runaway greenhouse,

0:46:40.164,0:46:42.630
if we did that like 40 years ago,

0:46:42.630,0:46:45.810
but,then all the nuclear power plants[br]in the world melted out,

0:46:46.638,0:46:48.726
so that's gonna be inconvenient.

0:46:50.502,0:46:52.367
- Why would they melt down?

0:46:52.744,0:46:55.842
Because they rely upon grid tie electricity

0:46:55.842,0:46:59.738
to maintain the circulation of the water[br]through the cooling ponds.

0:47:00.227,0:47:08.310
Until those spent few rods spend years in this cooling ponds

0:47:08.310,0:47:12.530
and then are stored into dry cask storage,[br]they're dangerous.

0:47:13.719,0:47:16.424
So, they're dangerous for a long time.

0:47:16.424,0:47:21.384
There was a panel in New York City late last year,[br]including Ralph Nader

0:47:21.384,0:47:25.502
and the most recent ex-head of the Nuclear Regulatory Commission in the United States,

0:47:25.502,0:47:30.126
and they were asked, at the very end of the panel, how long it would take to decommission Indian Point,

0:47:30.126,0:47:34.233
the new nuclear power plant right outside New York City. And they hummed and hummed, refusing to answer.

0:47:34.233,0:47:39.390
And finally, they were badgered long enoug that they had to come with an answer. They said 6 decades...

0:47:40.399,0:47:42.627
to shut down Indian Point.

0:47:44.310,0:47:46.228
6 decades...

0:47:48.222,0:47:49.808
It's a long time!

0:47:50.111,0:47:52.510
Forever is a long time,[br]especially towards the end.

0:47:53.406,0:48:00.039
- A difficult question. I have read a novel about global warming and it described a lot of what you are saying,

0:48:00.039,0:48:06.764
but I also struggle with this idea, we have a mythology that human beings are this sort of alien presence

0:48:06.764,0:48:11.966
and we're doing this terrible thing to nature. [br]And to point a fact: we are nature.

0:48:11.966,0:48:16.242
There is nothing outside of nature[br]and we are exactly what nature is doing.

0:48:16.242,0:48:20.993
And, you know, if I go over Phoenix,[br]or looking at what's going on in China,

0:48:20.993,0:48:24.900
it seems like it's nature doing this;

0:48:24.900,0:48:30.491
and from your philosophical side... because often we want to demonize people for going to Disneyland

0:48:30.491,0:48:37.510
or driving a SUV, but you know what? Usually is, in many cases, their best human emotions,

0:48:37.779,0:48:41.646
they want their families safe so, out of love they think and consider these things safe,

0:48:41.646,0:48:45.698
but of course, wont, but they're going to Disneyland because they are doing it for their kids.

0:48:45.698,0:48:50.329
So you are working against something so fundamental in the human experience,

0:48:50.329,0:48:55.571
that it's also, probably, the best art[br]that people experience themselves.

0:48:55.571,0:48:59.550
and to tell them "now you are wrong;[br]now you're destroying everything

0:48:59.550,0:49:03.761
when you're an abomination to all of nature"[br]it's a very difficult thing philosophicaly.

0:49:03.761,0:49:10.956
So I'd like to know your philosopher side; if we are nature... and we didn't come from another planet,

0:49:10.956,0:49:14.687
we are doing what nature wants done here.

0:49:14.687,0:49:18.171
- Anybody familiar with Lucy Kay? Comediant.[br]- Oh Yeah!

0:49:18.171,0:49:20.260
- Social character, Lucy Kay? I love this.

0:49:20.260,0:49:25.784
The one on Indians? This one little one minute clip[br]on Indians, it's awesome.

0:49:25.784,0:49:29.743
He says "Sometimes I think people came from like another planet." That's how he starts.

0:49:29.743,0:49:32.611
So, they were just that alien.

0:49:33.659,0:49:35.855
But no, we are in fact part of nature.

0:49:35.855,0:49:39.877
We act as if we are apart from nature,[br]instead of a part of nature,

0:49:40.569,0:49:42.673
but we're definitely a part of nature.

0:49:43.275,0:49:46.135
And we are the mutant part.

0:49:46.522,0:49:50.676
2 million years human beings lived on the planet without going and taking a population overshoot.

0:49:50.676,0:49:56.205
2 million years humans lived on the planet, at the global level, without going to human population overshoot.

0:49:56.205,0:50:04.375
2 million years we lived in... in systems, in social systems,

0:50:04.375,0:50:09.572
that did not allow for degradation of human habitat.

0:50:10.041,0:50:13.870
And then, a few thousand years ago[br]we discovered civilization

0:50:14.159,0:50:18.985
and civilization grew several times, more or less, ...several places, more or less simultaneously

0:50:18.985,0:50:24.551
and from then it's all have been a wild drive, [br]we were immediately in overpopulation overshoot

0:50:24.551,0:50:28.371
and started destroying water and fouling the air and washing the soil into the ocean,

0:50:28.371,0:50:31.338
and all that stuff we have been doing since then,

0:50:31.338,0:50:34.272
furthermore ???? up human population overshoot,

0:50:34.272,0:50:37.069
in the rate of 207 thousand or so people a day,[br]that's ???

0:50:37.069,0:50:44.268
so, if you're looking for fault, for blame, it's not you and me.

0:50:44.268,0:50:47.844
It's these settled living arrangements[br]into which we have been born.

0:50:47.844,0:50:52.070
We are born into captivity, we are born in the civilization, [br]we didn't get to choose.

0:50:52.070,0:50:56.736
Nobody comes out and says[br]"Oh shit! No, I'm going back in."

0:50:57.341,0:50:58.525
[Laughter]

0:50:58.910,0:51:02.441
Right? Not only that but it just keeps getting better, right?, We've got ipods now.

0:51:03.470,0:51:07.708
And the whole thing.[br]And it just looks like it keeps getting better.

0:51:08.001,0:51:10.779
Every year my life[br]has been worse than the year before.

0:51:10.779,0:51:14.046
Every year we dirty more air and foul more water[br]and that whole thing,

0:51:14.046,0:51:18.704
and everybody I know thinks it's getting better[br]because we have smartphones. Right?

0:51:19.106,0:51:21.906
So that's my bumper sticker[br]"Genocide for Smartphones".

0:51:22.906,0:51:25.092
We know how we chose, didn't we?

0:51:25.394,0:51:29.013
More about blame. Of course it's not our fault, we're born into this settled living arangements,

0:51:29.013,0:51:33.102
we did what society expected of us[br]and if we didn't we were called crazy...

0:51:34.084,0:51:39.076
and furthermore, it's FORTY YEARS... from cause to effect;

0:51:39.937,0:51:43.667
It's 40 years from greenhouse gas emissions[br]until temperature rise.

0:51:45.749,0:51:51.571
40 years! Forty years ago, I was 13.[br]I wasn't even driving.

0:51:52.103,0:51:58.502
I was looking forward to it, having no clue, in my early teens, what the consequences would be.

0:51:59.905,0:52:01.813
None of us knew.

0:52:02.174,0:52:06.268
If you knew 40 years ago[br]that we were headed for the abyss,

0:52:06.951,0:52:10.241
and you lived this long,[br]you're a stronger person than me.

0:52:11.208,0:52:14.040
To have that clatter around in your head...[br]- Thank you!

0:52:14.768,0:52:16.306
- Yeah, thank you!

0:52:17.292,0:52:19.618
[Laughter]

0:52:21.340,0:52:25.006
- Did she just say ...[br]Did she just thank me for calling her crazy?

0:52:26.272,0:52:27.730
Because I almost never get that!

0:52:28.001,0:52:29.938
Ok, You're all crazy!

0:52:30.272,0:52:32.545
- Thank you! - Thank you![br][Laughter]

0:52:33.103,0:52:38.885
So, it's 40 years from cause to effect,[br]from action to consequence

0:52:39.325,0:52:43.754
in terms of warming of the planet,[br]and within the last 29 years

0:52:43.754,0:52:48.392
we generated more greenhouse gas emissions than in the previous 236 years combined.

0:52:49.134,0:52:54.786
So we haven't even begun to see the temperature rise associated with those last 29 years.

0:52:56.079,0:53:00.022
.85 is a walk in the park[br]compared to what's coming.

0:53:00.480,0:53:02.472
.85 °C rise.

0:53:02.849,0:53:10.009
So, I'm not looking to blame anybody,[br]except the whole thing.

0:53:10.405,0:53:14.009
The whole system is irredeemably corrupt,[br]and we just showed up,

0:53:14.009,0:53:15.681
like we didn't get to choose it.

0:53:15.681,0:53:19.145
We could have chose sometime when we wouldn't get to see the end of the movie.

0:53:19.414,0:53:22.036
And for most people, they think that was better.

0:53:24.753,0:53:31.468
- What do you think of some of these ideas about shooting particles up in the atmosphere?

0:53:32.405,0:53:34.935
- Geoengineering is a fine question.

0:53:35.746,0:53:39.943
Lets see what the[br]intergovernmental panel on climate change,

0:53:39.943,0:53:44.481
in their latest assessment, which ???,[br]which has been heavily leeked,

0:53:44.481,0:53:48.692
they say "Global warming is irreversible without massive geoengineering of the atmosphere's chemistry."

0:53:48.692,0:53:50.520
that's a direct quote.

0:53:50.520,0:53:53.426
Since then, we've got a paper coming out from Earth System Dynamics, that says:

0:53:53.426,0:53:58.468
"Climate geo-engineering cannot simply[br]be used to undo global warming"

0:53:59.287,0:54:02.556
Next paper: "Geoengineering may succeed in cooling the Earth, but it would also

0:54:02.556,0:54:06.537
disrupt precipitation patterns around the world."so we couldn't actually grow any food.

0:54:07.012,0:54:10.083
Next paper: "Attempts to reverse the impacts of global warming

0:54:10.083,0:54:14.014
by injecting reflective particles into the stratosphere could make matters worse."

0:54:14.014,0:54:19.573
Next paper Environmental Research Letters "Risk of abrupt and dangerous warming is inherent

0:54:19.573,0:54:25.136
to the large-scale implementation of ..." Solar Radiation Management. Putting particles up into the air.

0:54:25.136,0:54:28.571
Next paper, from a couple of days ago. Current schemes,

0:54:28.571,0:54:33.834
and this paper looked at 5, the 5 most common current schemes of geoengineering,

0:54:33.834,0:54:38.338
"Current schemes are likely to either be relatively useless or actually make things worse"

0:54:38.900,0:54:41.537
Finally, let's ask the people what they think.

0:54:41.537,0:54:44.407
They think it's a stupid idea.

0:54:45.247,0:54:46.812
I agree with them.

0:54:47.182,0:54:50.842
For a change, I agree with people in this completely irredeemably corrupt society.

0:54:51.584,0:54:53.459
I think they figured this one out.

0:54:56.412,0:55:02.177
[Imperceptible]

0:55:02.177,0:55:06.076
- ...there is nothing that can be done, doesn't make any difference ???,

0:55:06.943,0:55:13.982
nothing can change the fact that everyone in this room is going to die from climate change.

0:55:13.982,0:55:22.045
Do yo feel that presenting things in that form actually encourages people to try and do something about it?

0:55:23.265,0:55:24.462
- No.[br]- No. It doesn't.

0:55:25.762,0:55:30.603
- For several reasons. First of all, I don't know anybody, well there's a handful of people around the world,

0:55:30.799,0:55:34.414
??? resistance members among them, who are trying to terminate the settle living arrangements.

0:55:34.614,0:55:39.510
I've been trying to do that for a long time and it really hasn't worked out very well.

0:55:39.510,0:55:44.964
2, people say: Well, in light of this information don't you think people will become hedonists?

0:55:46.292,0:55:49.695
[Laughter]

0:55:49.695,0:55:51.790
Americans? [Laugter]

0:55:52.184,0:55:53.582
Becoming hedonists?

0:55:54.530,0:55:56.762
How would I tell the difference?

0:55:57.310,0:55:59.724
We could have everything we want, we have the world's reserve currency.

0:56:00.061,0:56:05.171
I don't know a single college student who doesn't show up at college having made a requisite trip to Europe.

0:56:05.466,0:56:09.291
That was a big deal when I was a kid. You got to love stories that start like "When I was a kid..."

0:56:09.291,0:56:13.209
When I was a kid, people didn't just go to Europe[br]when they're in Highschool.

0:56:14.256,0:56:16.997
It was inconceivable[br]that anybody would do such a thing.

0:56:17.398,0:56:20.929
Am I afraid people will start acting like hedonists?[br]Not really.

0:56:23.714,0:56:28.037
The Buddha... I bet this story isn't true[br]but I'm gonna tell it as if it is.

0:56:29.018,0:56:33.852
The Buddha, apparently, asked one of his students how frequently he thought about death,

0:56:33.852,0:56:38.093
and the student goes "I think about death pretty much all the time, probably 100 times a day."

0:56:38.093,0:56:41.283
And the Buddha goes "You must think about death[br]with every breath."

0:56:43.159,0:56:46.422
Let's live. Let's live here, now.

0:56:46.422,0:56:50.479
You all knew you were gonna die.[br]Right? Since you were 11 or so?

0:56:51.990,0:56:55.184
And you reach this understanding when you're 5 or so,

0:56:55.184,0:56:58.748
apparently you realize that you're gonna die but you don't really have a chance to synthesise,

0:56:58.748,0:57:02.414
to integrate it into your being.[br]But by the time you're 10 or 12 years old,

0:57:02.414,0:57:07.048
everybody knows that death doesn't do just apply to grandma, it applies to them too.

0:57:07.985,0:57:10.928
And I remember, actually, when my grandmother died when I was 11 years old,

0:57:10.928,0:57:13.622
and I cried for 2 weeks and I barely knew the woman.

0:57:14.584,0:57:19.272
I mean, I met her a few times, she lived always away, [br]and I didn't know her at all.

0:57:19.478,0:57:24.626
And I cried for a long time, and later, much later, [br]it occurred to me that I wasn't crying for her.

0:57:24.924,0:57:26.901
I was crying for me.

0:57:27.689,0:57:30.359
She was an indicator that I'm mortal too.

0:57:30.359,0:57:32.552
And I hate that!

0:57:32.552,0:57:36.122
I mean I don't mind that nobody gets out alive,[br]as long as I'm an exception.

0:57:36.122,0:57:37.498
[Laughter]

0:57:39.187,0:57:43.001
So, the wolf is always at the door. Right?

0:57:43.001,0:57:47.919
Let's act with some urgency in our lives; lets act as if the here and now matters;

0:57:47.919,0:57:53.322
let's act as if people around us matter; let's act as if the living planet matters too.

0:57:53.322,0:57:57.491
That's all I'm suggesting. I'm suggesting that we act.

0:57:59.577,0:58:04.460
I am also suggesting that[br]I can't imagine it will work to save our species,

0:58:04.460,0:58:09.546
but as a conservation biologist I have long known that humans were gonna go extinct.

0:58:10.590,0:58:12.721
I didn't know it would be on my watch.

0:58:13.586,0:58:15.748
But...

0:58:17.072,0:58:19.199
...all species go extinct,

0:58:20.424,0:58:22.568
including the most clever of them all.

0:58:24.535,0:58:25.817
You, you with the hat.

0:58:26.099,0:58:31.396
He says: Is it true that you're investing heavily in start up space travel companies?

0:58:31.886,0:58:36.555
Or are you relying upon intervention[br]by friendly extra-terrestrial?

0:58:37.168,0:58:39.989
[Laughter]

0:58:39.989,0:58:42.753
No, I'm not investing in space travel.

0:58:45.922,0:58:51.594
I suggest that we live here, now. That's sort of inconsistent with jumping in a space-ship.

0:58:53.238,0:58:55.182
And I read the Martian chronicles when I was a kid

0:58:55.277,0:58:57.680
- I don't know if you remember Ray Bradbury's classic commercial chronicles? -

0:58:58.290,0:59:03.990
and people were starting to kill each other in mass here on Earth, so the rest of the people decided to go on Mars,

0:59:04.747,0:59:08.219
And it wasn't long that they were on Mars before they could look back and see

0:59:08.219,0:59:13.739
everybody on Earth killing themselves, and by that time the process was well under way on Mars.

0:59:14.155,0:59:17.950
So, we not only have to escape,[br]we have to change human behavior.

0:59:18.865,0:59:21.149
With respect to aliens,

0:59:22.849,0:59:26.458
all you have to do is pretend that I'm an alien,

0:59:26.458,0:59:30.711
and now convince me. Tell me why you're worth saving?

0:59:31.351,0:59:33.749
Tell me why you're worth extending the run

0:59:33.749,0:59:38.292
of the species that is driving to extinction[br]200 species a day?

0:59:39.512,0:59:43.293
Tell me why you're worth saving,[br]when you're not saving anything.

0:59:44.819,0:59:47.255
If you can do that, you can have the microphone.

0:59:51.665,0:59:59.822
I have 2 questions. The quick one... I kind of missed what you meant by clathrate gun.

1:00:00.445,1:00:05.872
That's not my main question; that just came up from your answers to other people's questions.

1:00:08.479,1:00:13.446
aah... people that I know who question climate science,

1:00:13.446,1:00:19.784
aahm... one of the big arguments that they make... is.. ahm

1:00:20.707,1:00:30.799
ok aah... with carbon you're talking parts per millionth, with methane you're talking parts per billionth,

1:00:32.252,1:00:43.961
and they say that really the biggest greenhouse gas, the thing that can hold the most heat

1:00:44.902,1:00:47.354
is water in the atmosphere.

1:00:47.822,1:00:51.065
Which is, I'm not sure exactly but it's aah

1:00:51.659,1:00:57.552
- That's correct, by the way. The biggest greenhouse gas is water in the atmosphere.

1:00:59.065,1:01:00.410
- So...

1:01:01.149,1:01:05.949
- Right. It's a little change in a little number. What can possibly go wrong?

1:01:05.949,1:01:08.170
- Right.

1:01:08.265,1:01:10.095
- Yeah, I've heard that one.

1:01:11.159,1:01:18.668
- aahm... When you ingest Anthrax it's a little number,[br]that has a big change.

1:01:19.674,1:01:22.584
280ppm is not 400ppm.

1:01:23.502,1:01:26.322
If you question the greenhouse effect,

1:01:26.861,1:01:31.353
go out in your car on a sunny day, with the windows down,

1:01:32.461,1:01:36.423
and it's almost the same temperature inside as out, [br]and then roll up the windows.

1:01:37.101,1:01:42.855
Like in 5 minutes is a little uncomfortable. [br]Well, in 15 is a lot of uncomfortable and 30 minutes...

1:01:42.855,1:01:47.772
- ... ??? of the car it's the window. [Imperceptible]

1:01:47.772,1:01:55.423
- Right, and so this is an excellent analogy for Earth[br]with a whole bunch of windows,

1:01:55.818,1:02:01.155
and every molecule of CO2, above baseline,[br]is rolling up a little window,

1:02:01.854,1:02:05.691
and it takes 40 years[br]for those effects to be felt.

1:02:06.657,1:02:11.640
I'm not sure how to convince people[br]who are unconvinced by evidence.

1:02:14.020,1:02:16.185
There's no... I don't think there's any way to do that.

1:02:18.952,1:02:21.495
- It's clear to me that global warming is going on,

1:02:22.383,1:02:28.736
but the math between parts per millionth[br]and parts per billionth and

1:02:29.905,1:02:35.240
water vapor, which I'm not sure exactly[br]but it's much different,

1:02:35.240,1:02:41.851
so I have a hard time at making that math work,[br]making it, conceptualizing it,

1:02:41.851,1:02:44.675
the whole "yeah, that's what it is!".

1:02:46.745,1:02:49.207
- Well, I'm not sure I can help you then because

1:02:50.857,1:02:57.664
you can put greenhouse emissions or global warming or climate change in the search box,

1:02:57.664,1:03:00.023
your favorite search engine, and find abundant information

1:03:00.023,1:03:03.870
that is merely elucidation of[br]what has become the scientific obvious.

1:03:04.797,1:03:10.924
In 1847, George Perkins Marsh,[br]United States ambassador and naturalist,

1:03:12.790,1:03:15.905
- is it not interesting? What a weird combination.

1:03:16.237,1:03:21.568
You don't see many ambassadors these days who aren't attorneys, much less who are naturalists -

1:03:21.804,1:03:25.731
1847, before we started burning any fossil fuels at scale,

1:03:25.731,1:03:32.236
1847, George Perkins Marsh predicted global warming[br]as a result of burning fossil fuels.

1:03:33.944,1:03:38.676
By 1896, Svante Arrhenius, who went on to win[br]the Nobel Prize in Chemistry,

1:03:38.676,1:03:45.175
predicted we would observe a 1°C temperature rise - global temperature, planetary average -

1:03:45.538,1:03:48.992
by the year 2000, if we keep burning fossil fuels.

1:03:49.636,1:03:51.980
The mechanism has been known for a really long time,

1:03:51.980,1:03:55.576
it was demonstrated in practice by Guy Kalender,

1:03:55.576,1:04:00.211
in 1938, in a paper by Royal Society,

1:04:00.211,1:04:06.833
and in 1938 he demonstrated there was a significant rise in global average temperature.

1:04:07.469,1:04:12.940
It was a 40 year lag, he documented that rise in about 1915,

1:04:12.940,1:04:17.764
about 40 years after we started[br]burning fossil fuels at scale.

1:04:18.472,1:04:20.245
The evidence is overwhelming.

1:04:20.540,1:04:22.950
If it can't convince somebody[br]then it can't convince somebody,

1:04:22.950,1:04:25.028
and I'm not interested in trying to convincing them.

1:04:25.028,1:04:27.132
It's pointless.

1:04:27.162,1:04:29.873
This is like the difference[br]between trying to convince people

1:04:29.873,1:04:33.472
who believe in climate change,[br]but that it's not that bad.

1:04:39.111,1:04:43.988
The burning of fossil fuels, of course, creates heat,

1:04:44.983,1:04:48.710
so we've got lots of heat going on[br]all over the place, all the time.

1:04:49.922,1:04:55.818
So couldn't that heat that we're continuously[br]introducing into the environment...

1:04:57.860,1:05:01.929
be a major factor?[br]- No. It can't.

1:05:03.279,1:05:07.272
Because we turn the heat off[br]for extended periods of time, in various places,

1:05:07.350,1:05:11.636
we now removed for the urban heat island effect[br]and for local phenomena

1:05:12.212,1:05:14.855
when calculating global average temperature.

1:05:15.243,1:05:19.185
We can talk about this later[br]but I don't want to spend any more time on it, today

1:05:19.519,1:05:25.167
The mechanism has been described, has been illustrated, we've known for a long time

1:05:25.684,1:05:29.416
that you can't burn fossil fuels[br]that accumulated over millions of years

1:05:29.729,1:05:33.087
in the span of 150 to 200 years without consequences.

1:05:33.712,1:05:36.458
We've know this for a long time.[br]We're seeing those consequences.

1:05:36.697,1:05:38.752
We shouldn't be surprised.

1:05:38.985,1:05:41.319
All the way in the back.[br]- Can we shift gears for a bit

1:05:41.547,1:05:44.394
and talk about living gracefully?[br]Can you say a few words about the gift economy?

1:05:44.800,1:05:47.820
I really... that's what is near dear to me.

1:05:48.019,1:05:52.021
- Sure. I live in a small valley[br]in south-western New Mexico,

1:05:52.021,1:05:57.887
where I practice and promote agrarian anarchy.

1:05:58.318,1:06:02.284
Anarchy is not chaos.[br]Anarchy is an absence of rulers.

1:06:02.284,1:06:05.191
Chaos is an absence of rules.

1:06:05.191,1:06:08.585
I practice agrarian anarchy[br]in the spirit of Wendell Berry

1:06:08.881,1:06:10.322
and Edward Abbey,

1:06:10.322,1:06:12.284
and Henri David Thoreau

1:06:12.284,1:06:16.554
and to a lesser extend, with slaves involved,[br]Thomas Jefferson

1:06:18.405,1:06:21.218
and I also practice and promoted gift economy,

1:06:21.815,1:06:25.151
and that's what we did for the first 2 million years[br]of the human experience.

1:06:25.151,1:06:31.230
It was only after civilization arouse that we started...

1:06:31.230,1:06:34.088
the notion of currency.

1:06:34.088,1:06:36.834
Yes, fiat currency.

1:06:36.834,1:06:41.032
I, almost every time I go to the store,[br]which isn't very often,

1:06:41.032,1:06:45.554
the cashier rings me up and then here she says "How would you like to pay for that?"

1:06:45.554,1:06:50.049
and I bring out these pieces of green paper[br]and I go: "You're still taken these?"

1:06:50.049,1:06:52.790
They look at me like I'm crazy.

1:06:53.250,1:06:55.955
I'm not rolling that out,[br]because I've been called a lot worse.

1:06:57.154,1:06:59.754
But they're still taking those, and it's all a con game,

1:06:59.754,1:07:02.403
it's an unbelievable scheme!

1:07:03.189,1:07:09.339
I mean... the secretary of treasury Jack Lew[br]admitted that, last October!

1:07:09.786,1:07:15.726
He said: if people want money instead of rolling over the bonds, the whole system comes down.

1:07:16.314,1:07:19.716
He admitted it, it's a Ponzi scheme;[br]right out there in public.

1:07:19.947,1:07:23.392
And the American public is like:[br]"[yawn] Can you pass the chips?

1:07:23.713,1:07:25.686
What´s on today any way?"

1:07:27.324,1:07:33.347
So, a gift economy... of course a gift economy works great when you're in a triangle situation.

1:07:33.878,1:07:36.933
If you have dunbar's number of people, 150 to 250 people,

1:07:36.933,1:07:39.115
well, then everybody can keep track of everybody

1:07:39.115,1:07:45.747
and the consequence of shunning somebody is probably death for that person.

1:07:46.145,1:07:51.926
Now that we've become so globalized and interconnected and dependent upon fiat currency,

1:07:51.926,1:07:55.115
that then all bets are of, so to speak.

1:07:55.317,1:08:00.051
But, I'm still trying to promote that,[br]even though it doesn't do any good.

1:08:00.268,1:08:01.901
It's like everything else.

1:08:02.233,1:08:06.744
Why not? I propose doing everything differently,[br]then we're doing now.

1:08:06.744,1:08:08.597
- It feels great!

1:08:08.597,1:08:09.619
- Yes.

1:08:09.619,1:08:13.382
aaah... over here.[br]- Thank you! Thanks for coming ???

1:08:13.382,1:08:19.753
You kind of lost me on the methane hidrates. I think that it's not kind of ??? but,

1:08:19.753,1:08:26.263
aah, I was doing some research recently on... what they're calling next generation biofuels

1:08:26.263,1:08:31.420
and one of them is cellulosic ethanol, [br]the other one, that you're probably familiar with is Algae,

1:08:31.618,1:08:36.752
and in the finding there´s a number of people and companies that are doing some pretty cool stuff,

1:08:36.995,1:08:40.494
and I came upon one in Florida that has already ??

1:08:40.494,1:08:48.427
that they can do 10 thousand gallons[br]of biofuels per acre per year,

1:08:48.427,1:08:53.478
using salt water and the CO2 coming out of power plants.

1:08:53.816,1:08:59.285
10 thousand gallons. You get about 50 gallons from soybean oil.

1:08:59.285,1:09:03.611
Those are completely different things.[br]Could that, you know, change your predictions

1:09:03.611,1:09:07.390
of ????? that going? [br]Again, they've already proven it...

1:09:07.390,1:09:12.684
The company that I encourage everyone to look it up is Algenol, A-L-G-E-N-O-L,

1:09:12.684,1:09:16.639
they are in Florida [br]and they're trying to expand right now.

1:09:16.639,1:09:20.724
- These are not my predictions, first of all.[br]These are other people's predictions.

1:09:20.724,1:09:23.317
I'm just relaying the good news.

1:09:23.455,1:09:25.427
Providing some context.

1:09:26.391,1:09:29.417
With respect to the methane,[br]that's a second question about methane,

1:09:29.417,1:09:31.543
so I should explain that a little bit better.

1:09:31.543,1:09:34.787
Methane is enclosed within small cages,

1:09:34.787,1:09:39.571
only slightly bigger [br]than the methane molecule, the CH4.

1:09:39.571,1:09:44.516
Enclosed within a cage[br]and that cage is in the shallow sea beds,

1:09:44.956,1:09:50.655
and when it warms,[br]that cage with the methane starts to rise,

1:09:50.655,1:09:53.544
and when it warms a little bit more[br]the cage falls apart.

1:09:54.476,1:09:58.116
And then the methane molecules are released directly into the atmosphere.

1:09:58.116,1:10:01.797
So this cages are called clathrates or hydrates.

1:10:01.876,1:10:04.848
This is called the clathrate gun[br]or the methane bomb.

1:10:04.848,1:10:09.660
It appears that we´ve triggered it.

1:10:09.660,1:10:13.335
Until we can undo the irreversible...

1:10:13.335,1:10:18.458
Until we can reverse the irreversible feedback loops, I don´t think it matters.

1:10:18.458,1:10:21.256
Furthermore, I´m not a fan of the car culture.[br]

1:10:21.256,1:10:24.935
I think the car culture is a huge part of our problem, and so...

1:10:24.935,1:10:27.794
continuing the car culture... I don´t think is a good idea,

1:10:27.794,1:10:34.891
even if it means carrying our cars with buffalo shit, I´m still not a fan.

1:10:34.891,1:10:39.160
- So but, I mean, if we were just in a perfect world

1:10:39.160,1:10:45.994
we were able to stop going for oil, stop ?????? Canada

1:10:45.994,1:10:52.196
and start plugin in these ponds, [br]start growing these biofuels that way...

1:10:52.196,1:10:56.579
10 thousand gallons per acre per year,[br]you got to admit is pretty significant.

1:10:56.579,1:11:01.357
yes, I´de be interested in seing the energy return [br]on the amount of energy investment for that.

1:11:01.357,1:11:04.500
Is this tight oil, like Shell and tar sands?

1:11:04.500,1:11:06.930
-No, no, this is algea.

1:11:06.930,1:11:12.939
I understand, but algea to petrol [br]is not one magic wand ?????

1:11:12.939,1:11:21.324
- Oh, what it is is 9 000 of those gallons is ethanol and the remaining 1000 is about

1:11:21.324,1:11:27.898
1/3 jet fuel, 1/3 gasoline and 1/3 diesel and then the sludge ???

1:11:27.898,1:11:34.025
Ok, I don´t know enough to comment. I encourage anybody who would go algenol to look them up.

1:11:34.025,1:11:39.627
I´m not a fan of the car culture, of airplane culture, of maintaining industrial civilization

1:11:39.627,1:11:44.845
that is making us sick, making us crazy[br]and killing us, by any means.

1:11:45.656,1:11:49.653
So, if this is another way to prop up civilization,[br]I´m not a fan.

1:11:50.708,1:11:54.058
That´s what it sounds like.

1:11:55.639,1:11:58.819
Yes.[br]-Two questions:

1:11:59.100,1:12:02.972
How and when did you come [br]to your realisations about this?

1:12:03.297,1:12:10.638
And, if there is no hope, why aren´t you down in southwestern Mexico ???????

1:12:10.859,1:12:17.036
Wow, two tough questions. Pack your bag. Could we ascort this guy out?

1:12:18.103,1:12:23.003
Security? Do we have security?[br]I think it´s time we let this sucker out.

1:12:28.596,1:12:32.003
Sometimes I show and we have technical problems.

1:12:32.297,1:12:35.968
The first stop of this tour was in Eugene (I have a point)

1:12:39.303,1:12:43.649
and I found out, one minute before the presentation beggins, I don´t have a projector.

1:12:44.471,1:12:47.197
So I just did stand-up. Tragedy.

1:12:49.420,1:12:53.695
So, I apreciate you humouring me[br]with your laughter.

1:12:55.198,1:12:59.631
I reached this realisation in 2002, when I was editing a book on climate change,

1:12:59.631,1:13:02.589
that we were heading for extinction probably in 2030 or so.

1:13:02.589,1:13:10.304
And, about a year later, I discovered the concept of global peak oil, and I realised:

1:13:10.304,1:13:13.626
This is it! This is the ?????. [br]This is the one that´s going to save us

1:13:13.626,1:13:17.947
in terminating the industrial civilization. [br]We will stop spilling emissions.

1:13:19.934,1:13:22.860
And... that was a long time ago.

1:13:22.943,1:13:24.432
- And fracking happended!

1:13:24.510,1:13:28.912
Yeah. Fracking and tar sands. [br]You know, everything we do to maintain

1:13:29.002,1:13:32.135
this settled arrangement that is killing [br]everything, including us.

1:13:36.883,1:13:42.326
So, that was in 2003-2004 that I thought there would be a game over by now.

1:13:43.016,1:13:46.684
I moved to southwestern New Mexico[br]for a variety of reasons.

1:13:47.240,1:13:50.245
One of which was that the university [br]were I was working

1:13:50.245,1:13:56.884
was just another exemple of [br]fundamentally irredeamebly corrupt system.

1:13:57.168,1:14:00.347
So I didn´t feel confortable working there anymore.

1:14:02.952,1:14:07.794
I´m not there now[br]

1:14:10.451,1:14:13.107
because the project has failed.

1:14:13.422,1:14:20.697
I built a platinum level doomsdead, a homestead that has 2 solar whels

1:14:20.697,1:14:28.913
and a ?????.

1:14:30.141,1:14:35.809
No fossil fuels are required to run the place.[br]It´s amazing for huge gardens

1:14:35.809,1:14:42.917
a large orchard, goats, chickens, ducks, turkeys and a goose named Myrtle.

1:14:45.160,1:14:49.287
The most important part of the whole thing. [br]And then she left.

1:14:49.823,1:14:52.190
She went to the neighbours!

1:14:53.423,1:14:57.170
They have six big ??? ducks and she´s like: "hey, this is my people."

1:14:58.068,1:15:00.322
And she wondered off and she spends all her time down there.

1:15:00.322,1:15:05.040
She come like one every two or three months, and she´s "quack quack quack"

1:15:05.040,1:15:09.210
and the honk says "I just want to check in and say I don´t live here anymore. Screw you!"

1:15:10.694,1:15:14.541
And that´s when I knew. I got to get the hell out of there, because it ain´t working.

1:15:15.238,1:15:17.539
Even Myrtle wouldn´t stay.

1:15:19.241,1:15:22.094
So, it´s been a complete catastrophic failure.

1:15:22.593,1:15:24.708
I would rather be here than there.

1:15:24.708,1:15:27.066
- Why was it a failure?

1:15:30.106,1:15:31.896
- You mean, besides Myrtle?

1:15:32.487,1:15:34.599
- Yeah, besides Myrtle.[br]- I know, I know.

1:15:34.599,1:15:38.144
I can´t remenber the stuff. [br]I have to look it up.

1:15:40.391,1:15:44.656
It says here in this book - it must be true because it´s on paper-

1:15:47.092,1:15:48.176
Let´s see...

1:15:48.176,1:15:51.496
"I left the easy life of a tenure professor in an amazing university

1:15:51.496,1:15:55.098
to develop and occupy the property I called 'The MudHut',

1:15:55.098,1:16:03.440
and I did that for five premiere reasons, [br]all of which have failed.

1:16:03.440,1:16:05.994
So, all the goals have failed to be met.

1:16:05.994,1:16:09.893
Firts of those, I left as an act of resistance[br]against the dominant paradigme.

1:16:09.893,1:16:15.766
Guess what, the dominant paradigme and those within it failed to notice.

1:16:15.766,1:16:20.571
2. I left as an example of alternative living, in my case promoting a gift economy

1:16:20.571,1:16:22.526
within agrarian anarchy.

1:16:22.526,1:16:25.753
My example has failed to inspire a number of significant others to live differently,

1:16:25.753,1:16:28.214
to live outside the system.

1:16:28.214,1:16:32.974
3. I left as a way to promote more... [br]to provide more time

1:16:32.974,1:16:36.330
(my eyes are getting worse everyday)

1:16:36.330,1:16:39.880
a way to provide more time for speaking and writing about important topics,

1:16:39.880,1:16:45.412
actions which were discouraged at the university where I was working.

1:16:45.412,1:16:48.116
My last department head was hired specifically to make my life

1:16:48.116,1:16:51.477
miserable enough so that I would leave.

1:16:51.477,1:16:56.239
She´s a dean at the University of Washington now. Congratulations.

1:16:56.519,1:17:02.670
I have enjoyed limited sucess in this arena, although triumph ???? not battling administator

1:17:03.069,1:17:06.867
dragons has been largely consumed with vigorous physical work,

1:17:06.867,1:17:10.028
like digging those damed trenches for the water delivery system.

1:17:10.028,1:17:14.389
4. The place is a refuge for the youngster, the son of the couple

1:17:14.389,1:17:18.118
with whom my wife and I shared this property, as well as his generation.

1:17:18.118,1:17:23.477
Due to ongoing accelerating climate change, the unsure future in this location probably will be

1:17:23.477,1:17:25.185
notably short.

1:17:25.832,1:17:29.688
And 5. it´s a way to extend my own life and that of my wife.

1:17:29.688,1:17:34.010
Due to ongoing accelerating climate change, [br]our future in this location is likely to be quite short.

1:17:34.362,1:17:38.113
So this were the 5 goals I had. The next paragraph starts with:

1:17:38.113,1:17:42.088
"Perhaps most importantly there is a widenning chasm within the partnership formed

1:17:42.088,1:17:45.726
in this shared property. Although leaving the life that I loved as an academic

1:17:45.726,1:17:47.787
to move to a diferent location[br]made sense at the time,

1:17:47.787,1:17:51.922
long before the climate change news grew so dire, [br]and everyone's collapse appeared eminent

1:17:51.922,1:17:56.446
I now view the major personnal transition as infinitly regretable.

1:17:57.044,1:18:01.622
I´ve come to see that it was the wort mistake of my life, althoug I´m not dead yet,

1:18:01.799,1:18:03.995
so can yet get up and be myself.

1:18:04.413,1:18:07.638
So it hasn´t worked in part because of the relations on the property,

1:18:07.638,1:18:11.520
which have broken down in a[br]somewhat horrifying manner.

1:18:12.806,1:18:14.865
You know, living with people is hard.

1:18:21.190,1:18:23.865
???? that was essencially my question.

1:18:24.691,1:18:28.043
When you found out that essencially we were all going to be done,

1:18:28.979,1:18:31.232
???????????????????

1:18:31.550,1:18:34.358
Of course, my reaction at the time[br]was utter despair

1:18:34.692,1:18:38.526
and I didn´t fit in particularly well [br]in society before that,

1:18:38.526,1:18:42.116
but when you start mourning[br]events that haven´t happened yet,

1:18:42.889,1:18:44.937
you´re an absolute nutcase.

1:18:45.898,1:18:50.925
And so, people are mourning the death[br]of their 92 year old grandmother,

1:18:50.925,1:18:56.831
whose been hanging on suffering ???? from cancer for 3 years, and I´m like;

1:18:56.831,1:19:04.322
Let it go. That´s one human being that´s had a full and rich life. Let her go.

1:19:04.322,1:19:08.567
[br]I´m mourning the near come demise of our entire species, and people are going:

1:19:09.306,1:19:14.290
What? You don´t know what you´re talking about. [br]That´s a theoretical thing.

1:19:14.290,1:19:19.341
It´s so abstract.[br]It reminds me of "Star Trek".[br]

1:19:19.341,1:19:22.119
-Yay![br]Somethings do.

1:19:22.119,1:19:26.789
I don´t know if you remember the early days "Star Trek"...[br]- Yay!

1:19:26.789,1:19:32.829
- I got that... Yes, that´s who exactly I´m going to talk about,

1:19:32.829,1:19:35.363
Mister Live Long and Prosper.[br]-Yay!

1:19:35.638,1:19:42.990
So, a ship was blown up, [br]a vulcan ship was blown up

1:19:43.500,1:19:47.127
and like 300 people died[br]and Spok sheds a tear.

1:19:47.425,1:19:50.698
A tear! It´s unbelieveble! [br]He shows no emotions ever.

1:19:50.698,1:19:54.763
And all the humans are like:[br]"what? what´s up with that?"

1:19:54.763,1:19:57.336
He says: "You people mourn the death[br]of a single individual.

1:19:57.336,1:20:02.214
I just lost 320 of my comrads, [br]and you can´t understand."

1:20:02.214,1:20:04.480
And I felt the same way, only it was 7 billion.

1:20:09.065,1:20:12.933
And nobody got that either.[br]Weird.

1:20:16.663,1:20:24.830
[Imperceptible]

1:20:30.692,1:20:37.578
Yes, so the question is if this climate chaos[br]causes human extinction,

1:20:37.578,1:20:41.627
will there be any animals that would be alive.[br]Yes, I think there will be.

1:20:41.627,1:20:47.565
The faster we terminate the industrial[br]civilization, the more especies,

1:20:47.574,1:20:51.672
I believe, will remain. [br]Even if terminating industrial civilization

1:20:52.032,1:20:58.252
leads to 2ºC in a short period of time, [br]then I still think that

1:20:58.252,1:21:00.757
some organisms have a chance.

1:21:00.757,1:21:09.267
Here´s the thing: [br]if we have chinook salmon next year,

1:21:10.334,1:21:13.088
we might have chinook salmon [br]in twenty years.

1:21:13.332,1:21:15.962
But if we don´t have chinook salmon [br]next year, we won´t.

1:21:17.547,1:21:21.745
So, what I´m working for, [br]is those other species, at this point.

1:21:21.745,1:21:23.191
I think we´re done.

1:21:24.032,1:21:27.382
But I´m working for those other species,[br]and here´s what I´m really working for:

1:21:28.940,1:21:32.964
Edward O. Wilson, Conservation Biologist [br]at Harvard University

1:21:32.964,1:21:36.303
predicts that only 10 million years [br]after an extinction level event

1:21:36.603,1:21:39.488
- there have been five, so far, [br]we are in the midst of the 6th extinction-

1:21:39.488,1:21:44.860
only 10 million years after an extinction level event, we have a vibrant green planet again.

1:21:45.035,1:21:46.557
10 million years. [br]

1:21:46.557,1:21:49.568
The more seeds we can plant now,[br]the more species we save now,

1:21:49.858,1:21:55.686
the greater likelyhood that in only 10 million[br]years, we have a vibrant planet again.

1:21:58.099,1:22:02.645
Recently, like in the last two months,[br]there was a new species,

1:22:02.645,1:22:07.912
previously unknown to humanity,[br]discovered in the sarcophagus of Chernobyl.

1:22:09.254,1:22:12.026
It was a slime mold. [br]In the sarcophagus.

1:22:13.203,1:22:17.169
Ionizing radiation at that level[br]and we can´t even kill everything.

1:22:18.145,1:22:22.284
As mutch as that´s our goal.[br]Is to kill everything.

1:22:22.761,1:22:25.964
It appears that we´re not going to be[br]"successful" at that.

1:22:26.827,1:22:31.398
So, my goal is to keep as many species[br]around as we possibly can.

1:22:35.764,1:22:40.071
Do you take any comfort from quantum mechanics and dark energy and dark matter?

1:22:40.467,1:22:44.012
This could be a very small sliver[br]of what we think is real.

1:22:45.367,1:22:50.168
Sure. Absolutely. I take comfort[br]from nearly anything at this point.

1:22:55.498,1:22:57.434
Dark matter maters.

1:23:03.415,1:23:10.302
I´m remembering two of the past extinctions,[br]where 60 millions and 200 millions and...

1:23:10.584,1:23:12.637
55 millions and 251 million years ago

1:23:12.948,1:23:22.191
what percentage of the land and sea species[br]were ???? or lasted ???

1:23:22.191,1:23:24.478
Was like 95%?

1:23:24.478,1:23:34.100
In The Great Dying, 251 million years ago,[br]the number of taxa, the number of species,

1:23:34.100,1:23:38.036
but, probably more general level,[br]the number of genera that we lost

1:23:38.036,1:23:40.275
was more than 95%. [br]

1:23:40.275,1:23:43.151
And 55 million years ago, it was more[br]than 90%.

1:23:43.794,1:23:46.762
So, it´s a huge proportion.

1:23:46.847,1:23:49.752
So everything that´s here now ????

1:23:50.422,1:23:54.123
Yes, that´s right.[br]Everything that´s here now

1:23:54.193,1:23:58.173
is because those species made it[br]through the extinction ????

1:23:58.843,1:24:05.277
So, your hope would be a [br]5 or 10 or 15% survival rate.

1:24:05.507,1:24:13.888
Yes. If we have 0,0001% that get it through[br]that´s better than 0,00001%.[br]

1:24:13.888,1:24:17.860
Yes, absolutely.[br]Let´s act as if every species matters.

1:24:20.693,1:24:24.732
On the higher estimates that you have though, [br]do you feel like there could be

1:24:24.732,1:24:31.247
a runaway kind of climate chaos that could lead[br]to a similar ?????

1:24:31.247,1:24:36.208
that just ???? beyond where ?????

1:24:36.208,1:24:40.727
Yes, it´s possible. It´s possible [br]that we could go Venus.

1:24:40.727,1:24:49.557
In the same frame of analysis, he sugests that, by 2026,[br]we´ll have a 160 degrees centigrade

1:24:49.797,1:24:54.452
of the surface temperature. [br]So that´s Venus, by the end of the century.

1:24:55.152,1:25:01.914
It could be, but I think we should act[br]as if that´s not going to happen,

1:25:02.785,1:25:08.783
that we should act as if our future matters, [br]that we should act as if the future of

1:25:08.783,1:25:13.202
other organisms matters as well, instead of [br]just saying: uhm, it´s done.

1:25:13.823,1:25:16.257
It´s game over. Let´s party like it´s 1999.

1:25:17.476,1:25:23.457
I have another question too, about what you were saying of the actual time scale,

1:25:24.043,1:25:28.463
and now I know that there is some... [br]this drought in California,

1:25:28.463,1:25:31.426
and ???? food prices are going up, and all this kind of things,[br]

1:25:31.426,1:25:35.539
I kind of intuitively felt that [br]maybe we are seing the beginning,

1:25:35.539,1:25:40.252
maybe they´re not going down again, [br]like this is.... the food prices

1:25:40.252,1:25:46.327
and the accessability of food... [br]and so I´m wondering if you think

1:25:46.614,1:25:57.318
that what we´re seing now with how this [br]affects on the food system,

1:25:57.318,1:26:02.024
if that is going to be the first to get afected[br]as far as what we will really notice,

1:26:02.029,1:26:07.305
and see that the producing areas [br]are not going to be able to produce food anymore

1:26:07.616,1:26:11.192
It could very well be and David ??? [br]writing for Fiesta Group

1:26:11.552,1:26:22.022
in late 2012, as I recall, indicates that [br]global economic collapse will be complete

1:26:22.022,1:26:26.637
in as little as 3 weeks after a significantly [br]disruption in the supply chain.

1:26:27.413,1:26:33.822
And here he´s talking about supplay chain disruption,[br]including food, or oil,

1:26:34.249,1:26:38.243
or any number of other things. [br]A significant disruption we´re 3 weeks away

1:26:38.243,1:26:41.619
from terminating the settled living arrangments.

1:26:41.619,1:26:46.099
Yes, I think that what we´re seing now [br]is the result of climate change

1:26:46.099,1:26:51.751
as already baked into the cake, and that [br]because of that 40 year lag,

1:26:51.751,1:26:57.785
there is little we can do, now, that will[br]have any impact on [br]

1:26:57.785,1:27:02.089
how those changes will play out.[br]We´re locked in to a drought.

1:27:02.089,1:27:04.520
????? for a really long period of time. [br]

1:27:05.205,1:27:10.770
It´s going to be wet and cold in the U.K. [br]and northern Europe, for a long time.

1:27:13.517,1:27:15.735
And so, yes, ???? food suply.

1:27:16.708,1:27:23.566
What do you think the social impact will be,[br]for the next 2 or 3 year, on a global scale?

1:27:24.220,1:27:26.731
Social impacts of climate change?

1:27:27.536,1:27:34.375
Several people, in retrospect,[br]now have viewed the Syrian´s spring

1:27:34.375,1:27:40.191
as a consequence of drought, [br]of food shortage induced by climate change,

1:27:40.191,1:27:48.507
So, if that´s a canarian coalmine,[br]and it might be, then we could see that spreading to

1:27:48.507,1:27:59.160
far wider portions of the globe. [br]So, I read an analysis yesterday, indicating

1:27:59.160,1:28:05.946
that we´re one year away[br]from massive global scale scale food riots,

1:28:05.946,1:28:11.154
because of disruptions in the food supply.[br]Could be.

1:28:17.644,1:28:19.037
I can´t hear you.

1:28:20.167,1:28:24.826
[imperceptable]

1:28:24.826,1:28:28.698
Ok, so, are there any counter-balancing [br]cooling signs? Well, there are

1:28:28.698,1:28:32.105
there´s at least one negative feedback[br]I know about, [br]

1:28:32.105,1:28:38.422
one negative reinforcement ???.[br]As the planet warms it releases more heat

1:28:38.422,1:28:43.153
in the space, but as near as I can tell,[br]that´s linear, not exponential.

1:28:44.963,1:28:50.577
We are due for an ice age[br]and the sun is dimming,

1:28:50.689,1:28:58.163
and apparently it will reach it´s lowest point,[br]in terms of radiation, in about 2020.

1:28:59.329,1:29:05.078
So, we´re dimming right now.[br]We´re overcoming the effects of a ...

1:29:05.078,1:29:09.655
of decreased energy coming from the sun.

1:29:09.883,1:29:14.502
What is scheduled to be an ice age, [br]we´re overcoming that with carbon emissions.

1:29:14.922,1:29:20.553
So, vulcanos anybody?[br]I mean, they´re worth for the short term.

1:29:21.061,1:29:26.895
But we need to keep spilling the materials[br]into the air, the refelctive particles in to the air

1:29:26.895,1:29:34.326
forever, and so... super vulcanos?[br]Anybody signing up for Yellow Stone going?

1:29:36.426,1:29:39.406
So, it may well take something like that [br]to counter-balance

1:29:40.011,1:29:46.090
??????, I´m a psychologist. [br]I remember reading some...

1:29:46.090,1:29:50.256
And I´m not crazy, so...

1:29:50.496,1:29:54.625
I remember reading some pop [br]psychology reviews about

1:29:58.189,1:30:02.583
educaters telling people about[br]climate change, and if they put it

1:30:02.980,1:30:09.785
in a `no way out of it`kind of perspective, [br]the students leave feeling as if

1:30:09.785,1:30:14.384
they can´t do anything about it. [br]And when they track

1:30:14.384,1:30:18.987
how they change their behaviours afterwards, [br]they don´t change anything

1:30:18.987,1:30:27.348
or, you know, recycle less. [br]If they hear about it in a positive light,

1:30:27.608,1:30:37.401
"we cand do something", they tend to do more[br]greenish kind of stuff.

1:30:37.401,1:30:43.801
Are you familiar with the study, [br]if so, how do you... are there other things

1:30:43.801,1:30:47.361
that go in the equation for you, like[br]

1:30:47.361,1:30:51.556
it´s going to go anyway so at least[br]we could go with some dignity, something like that?

1:30:51.560,1:30:56.370
I'm not familiar with the study but that never ceased me from commenting about a study

1:30:56.397,1:30:59.007
just because I don't know anything.

1:30:59.393,1:31:03.393
The comment about recycling, if I punch you in the face

1:31:03.417,1:31:05.554
do you think it's O.K. if I apologize?

1:31:07.520,1:31:10.961
No, of course not! That's a horrible thing!

1:31:11.007,1:31:13.210
But we recycle... It's the same thing.

1:31:13.258,1:31:15.418
Punch the planet in the face and we recycle,

1:31:15.847,1:31:18.241
"oh it's good, look, I recycle, look at me..."

1:31:18.241,1:31:20.721
What about reduce and reuse?

1:31:20.772,1:31:23.042
Remember the other 2 R's, the ones that matter?

1:31:23.098,1:31:28.668
The only ones that make corporate America any money is the recycle one.

1:31:28.709,1:31:33.699
So, that's why we do that.[br]But, it's an apology after a punch in the face.

1:31:33.701,1:31:37.377
I do this for many reasons,

1:31:39.322,1:31:41.731
among them that nobody else does.

1:31:43.441,1:31:45.771
I think we have the right to know,

1:31:45.771,1:31:48.341
and the corporate media and the[br]corporate governments of the world

1:31:48.385,1:31:51.425
are not telling you the facts.

1:31:54.562,1:31:58.405
I think you have the right to know, I think you have the right to know what I know and

1:31:58.405,1:32:00.806
there's a whole bunch of people[br]who know what I know, by the way.

1:32:01.727,1:32:05.097
I was contacted, out of the blue, much to my surprise,

1:32:05.160,1:32:08.264
a guy you would all know if I said his name,

1:32:08.487,1:32:14.704
he contacted me in December of 2012, and he says:

1:32:15.162,1:32:20.633
"You got it figured out, on the climate change front;[br]I'm buying the whole thing,

1:32:20.639,1:32:24.029
and can I come and visit the the 'mud hut'

1:32:24.029,1:32:28.029
because I'm moving to the Southern Hemisphere, and I want to replicate what you're doing."

1:32:28.170,1:32:32.290
This guy is about my age, and I did a bunch of research to figure out if this was actually him.

1:32:33.167,1:32:37.377
Because I'm thinking "Famous people[br]don't send me email messages."

1:32:37.384,1:32:42.094
So I did a bunch of research and it all matched, but still I wrote back to him and I said "Are you really you?"

1:32:42.725,1:32:46.725
you know, because after he lied the first time[br]he wouldn't lie the second time, I'm sure but..

1:32:50.351,1:32:54.351
So people know. People with lots of fiat currency

1:32:54.351,1:32:59.111
are converting that fiat currency into land[br]and homesteads in the Southern Hemisphere,...

1:32:59.111,1:33:02.181
- George Bush is one of them.[br]...and this is not the only case.

1:33:02.295,1:33:06.295
That's right. The Bush family is among them.

1:33:06.295,1:33:12.405
with a homestead in Paraguay. James Cameron, the film maker, [br]owns a whole bunch of New Zealand,

1:33:12.405,1:33:15.235
and the list goes on and on.

1:33:15.235,1:33:19.815
So, I do this in part because[br]I think we deserve to know what I know.

1:33:19.815,1:33:24.755
We deserve to know the facts and the models[br]and the projections about climate change.

1:33:25.148,1:33:28.448
And I don't see anybody else doing that.

1:33:29.729,1:33:32.389
Yes.[br]- Perfect time for comments.

1:33:32.389,1:33:34.299
????

1:33:35.075,1:33:38.035
Some Dallas philosophy a little bit.

1:33:43.827,1:33:47.429
What we can do is become aware. That's what you're doing.

1:33:48.619,1:33:52.781
I know a lot more information[br]than I did before I came in here tonight.

1:33:52.781,1:33:58.145
So the first step is to become aware and then act accordingly.

1:33:58.950,1:34:02.950
I would also add to that: act if it´s the right action.

1:34:03.276,1:34:06.636
Buddha said that, when he played tennis.

1:34:07.095,1:34:13.365
Also, right action.[br]So, awareness and then act accordingly.

1:34:14.039,1:34:17.239
That´s the best that we can do, [br]and it´s all that we can do

1:34:17.239,1:34:18.819
and it´s enough.

1:34:19.029,1:34:21.469
The Universe will take care of the rest.

1:34:21.570,1:34:25.570
If we act in the Now, in the Present, [br]we make our tomorrows.

1:34:27.447,1:34:31.787
Yes, I agree.[br]So awareness is the first step

1:34:31.787,1:34:36.787
and awareness is not Nirvana.[br]Awareness is a curse.

1:34:38.505,1:34:42.255
Oh! I forgot to mention something.

1:34:42.430,1:34:45.510
Now is probably the wrong time.

1:34:46.408,1:34:50.408
But I don´t know if you remember [br]this first slide. It has an asteroid.

1:34:51.049,1:34:55.249
And it´s supposed to remaind me to tell you[br]that there´s two kinds of people in the world,

1:34:55.249,1:34:58.839
those who categorize people under two kinds of people,

1:34:58.839,1:35:00.649
Oh. no, no, no.

1:35:01.134,1:35:05.134
There are people who want to know, [br]they want to know everything, they want to be fully aware,

1:35:05.170,1:35:07.860
And then there are people[br]who don´t want to know anything.

1:35:08.107,1:35:11.477
If there is an asteroid coming, [br]they don´t want to know about it until they´re dead.

1:35:11.477,1:35:13.587
So don´t tell me a thing.

1:35:13.587,1:35:17.147
Others of us want to know and I want to be out there[br]staring the damned thing down.

1:35:17.147,1:35:19.877
When it gets here,[br]it better hit me in the nose. [br]

1:35:20.136,1:35:22.406
That´s me. [br]So I assume that´s you.

1:35:22.433,1:35:26.433
But I was supposed to start by saing that [br]if that´s not you, now it would be a good time to leave.

1:35:26.433,1:35:31.653
Now is a bad time to leave,[br]because now you all know.

1:35:31.653,1:35:35.653
It´s like that Louis CK routine,[br]where he is talking to this 3 year old daughter

1:35:35.653,1:35:39.013
and, she keeps asking him questions [br]and finnally he starts to get frustrated

1:35:39.013,1:35:42.903
and he says: because at some point the [br]Sun will blow over and kill us all.

1:35:43.464,1:35:48.264
And so the 3 year old, before the conversation started [br]didn´t know anything, and now she knows everything.

1:35:48.733,1:35:52.443
And Ifeel the same way. [br]Now you know everything.

1:35:52.443,1:35:55.063
You know that you´re going to die[br]as so as averybody else.

1:35:55.065,1:35:59.065
But you knew that anyway.[br]So it´s not a big surprise. You´re not 3 years old.

1:36:06.136,1:36:12.166
Could you talk a little bit more about the northern hemisphere [br]versus the southern hemisphere?

1:36:12.942,1:36:17.942
You´re not depressed enough, yet?[br]Jesus, what does it take with you people?

1:36:30.144,1:36:34.144
How much longer do we have in the southern hemisphere?

1:36:36.042,1:36:40.042
How much longer to build a property down south?

1:36:43.333,1:36:50.273
Oh. I think it´s gone.[br]I had an answer for that. Let´s see.

1:36:50.273,1:36:55.923
Malcom ??? did this analisys for the Arctic Methane Emergency Group [br]on the ??? of February of 2012

1:36:57.229,1:37:01.229
and it´s distrubing to me that[br]this is the sort of stuff that it´s in my head.

1:37:02.698,1:37:12.407
And in it he concluded that all life on Earth[br]will be extinct by 2047, plus or minus a few years.

1:37:13.247,1:37:19.387
And he said, 2031.6, plus or minus 13 years,[br]in the northern hemisphere

1:37:20.285,1:37:24.725
2047, plus or minus a similar number of years,[br]in the southern hemisphere.

1:37:24.918,1:37:28.918
So that for all like on Earth. [br]That´s 16 years. 16 years.

1:37:29.780,1:37:33.340
I think he´s wrong.[br]I don´t think we can kill everything.

1:37:35.553,1:37:39.553
I see no way that we can manage[br]to kill everything by 2047.

1:37:43.404,1:37:48.024
So, if it´s 16 years for all life, [br]how much is it for human life?[br]

1:37:48.024,1:37:51.984
I don´t know, Is it 10 years, is it 15?[br]I don´t think anybody really knows.

1:37:51.984,1:37:56.424
But, I mean, you decided to move to New Mexico. [br]Yeah, that was stupid, remember?

1:37:57.941,1:38:01.941
I love the way you keep bringing that in, though.

1:38:03.072,1:38:06.342
You were really stupid,[br]let´s bring that up again.

1:38:09.378,1:38:14.958
What is with you people, anyway?[br]You say I´m stupid and you laugh about it.

1:38:14.958,1:38:17.968
That´s a little disturbing.

1:38:18.558,1:38:22.558
And that guy who isn´t a psychologist laughed. [br]??? go get one.

1:38:26.440,1:38:35.550
So if this ???comes to pass, when and as you expect,[br]what will you do?

1:38:35.641,1:38:41.691
Will you wait around and starve to death with everyone else or do you have a plan for yourself?

1:38:41.794,1:38:43.924
Is there a point?

1:38:47.287,1:38:51.287
[Imperceptable]

1:38:56.148,1:39:00.148
You´re just too macabre.[br]That´s what you are.

1:39:00.432,1:39:06.062
What am I gonna do?[br]Well, I suspect where Iive, at some point,

1:39:06.062,1:39:11.982
temperatures will rise, to a high enough level, that will [br]???? the proteins in all the planet.

1:39:11.982,1:39:17.072
That´s like 125 or 120º fahrenheit, [br]and that will ???? all the proteins in all the plants.

1:39:17.072,1:39:21.842
So all the plants will die. [br]And where Ilive those spring winds are horryfic.

1:39:21.842,1:39:26.482
Starting in February and March, it´s like [br]40 or 50 mile ??? winds every day

1:39:26.482,1:39:29.752
and it´s really quite unpleasant. [br]Well, ????no plans.

1:39:29.779,1:39:35.709
A thousand people died in the dust ball[br]in this country, choking to death, literally, on dust.

1:39:35.709,1:39:39.099
So that´s everybody I know, ????

1:39:39.395,1:39:43.895
And you will wait for that to happen, [br]as opposed to take your on life?

1:39:58.637,1:40:02.637
What´s it take to get a drink in this place?

1:40:10.914,1:40:16.364
I..... It´s dificult for me to imagine a scenario [br]in which I will commit suicide

1:40:16.804,1:40:24.924
There is a young guy named Daniel ???? whio wrote an essay, [br]in "Nature Bats Last" maybe a year ago,

1:40:24.924,1:40:32.534
whose 11.300 words, which is a lot, specially in Twitter nation, where 140 characters ????

1:40:35.363,1:40:39.363
11.300 palavras and it´s just ????, it´s he´s journey, he´s ride

1:40:39.661,1:40:45.581
of despair and utter hopelessness, followed by total extinction

1:40:45.902,1:40:50.102
You know, just up and down, up and down,[br]and it was horrifying,

1:40:50.102,1:40:55.702
and I can summerize that essay in just 3 words: [br]starvation, predation and suicide.

1:40:56.624,1:41:02.894
That´s all they said.[br]11.300 words.. 11297 more than it took me.

1:41:04.265,1:41:06.645
I don´t see myself commiting suicide. [br]

1:41:06.709,1:41:14.299
I eagerly anticipate seing the comeback of the living planet, [br]if only for a few weeks or months.

1:41:15.765,1:41:21.505
I think it will be awesome to see [br]the end of industrial civilization.

1:41:24.514,1:41:30.574
And yes, it will kill me, way sooner than it´s going to kill[br]almost everybody else in the planet.

1:41:31.546,1:41:37.156
Already 5 million people a year die early death because of climate change and people ask me: when it´s going to start?

1:41:38.050,1:41:42.050
To the families of those 5 million people, it already started.

1:41:43.572,1:41:47.732
So, it´s already in the way. I look foward for the living planet to make its come back, no matter how briefly.

1:41:47.864,1:41:51.434
So I can´t imagine I will kill myself.

1:41:52.214,1:41:59.444
However, there are a lot of people who have that in mind for me. [br]So I might not escape the bullet just yet.

1:42:00.820,1:42:04.820
Sometimes I think it´s good [br]that people are ignorant because[br]

1:42:04.821,1:42:10.751
if everybody is were as ??? as we are, now, [br]there might be panic and...

1:42:10.751,1:42:17.751
... I know you will oppose it, ????[br]that´s not my point of view

1:42:17.751,1:42:23.071
you know, bring it on, so we can all ????? better place

1:42:23.071,1:42:31.471
I just, sometimes, like... I was reading ?????[br]They´re all like in Lala land, but, maybe it´s good.

1:42:32.709,1:42:41.789
[br]People in California aren´t freaking out, they are ????

1:42:41.880,1:42:46.720
Right. So. You´re sort of the ??? the government[br]and the corporate media´s approach:

1:42:46.732,1:42:50.732
just don´t tell them anything that maters.[br]-Well, yeah, I guess I am,

1:42:50.732,1:42:55.722
-Keep them ??? and they´ll be happy,[br]because ignorance is bliss.

1:42:56.077,1:43:04.757
Why do we have a ??? state? Why do we have a media, if not to inform? Why do we have governments if not to lead?

1:43:05.857,1:43:07.977
- To steal!

1:43:09.621,1:43:13.621
I hate when people tell the truth. [br]That´s supposed to be my job!

1:43:13.908,1:43:18.946
- I love being here because I am so depressed about all the stuff and it's great to have somebody like, you now...

1:43:18.946,1:43:22.373
Yeah, and generate a whole community[br]of like-minded people.

1:43:28.831,1:43:32.277
People ask me all the time when I'm done[br]"Do you own stock ???"

1:43:34.027,1:43:36.368
"Because I really want to drink now."

1:43:39.314,1:43:40.658
Yes Robin?

1:43:41.070,1:43:46.425
So, this collapse, if you can bring if on,

1:43:46.425,1:43:49.217
the paper by Brad Werner?

1:43:49.217,1:43:53.345
"Earth Fucked", ...

1:43:54.119,1:44:03.836
he says the only...he did a mathematical model of a couple of human environment systems,

1:44:03.836,1:44:07.831
and the way the mathematical model is playing out,

1:44:07.831,1:44:13.127
it is that if we wait for some top-down answer... it's not coming,

1:44:13.761,1:44:18.021
and, chances are, he says, "Earth is Fucked", that's it.

1:44:19.040,1:44:24.294
But... the point that's uncertain in his model is...

1:44:25.578,1:44:32.789
the one thing that might make some kind of difference, I don't know if it would be enough to save anybody, but

1:44:33.513,1:44:36.948
the actually only thing that might make a difference is

1:44:36.948,1:44:44.313
if there is just a massive bottom-up to bring down civilization...

1:44:45.386,1:44:54.515
within the next 5 years. Within the next 5 years it has to be complete or there is no - and there might already be enough -

1:44:55.014,1:45:04.296
but, in his model, how do you feel about bottom-up, bringing it down in the next 5 years,

1:45:05.607,1:45:13.573
would there be a way that we grow enough food for a few Adams and Eves, to keep the insanity going?

1:45:22.212,1:45:24.548
??? finally shows up.

1:45:27.317,1:45:33.053
I think it's a great idea, terminating industrial civilization, has been foremost on my mind for years.

1:45:33.625,1:45:37.692
Yes I think that's ingenious,[br]no I don't think it will matter for our species.

1:45:38.717,1:45:43.297
I think we're already done. We're just walking around to save on the funeral expenses.

1:45:44.804,1:45:47.933
Not easy to bury a species, you know;[br]that shit costs money

1:45:49.815,1:45:51.826
And we are all about the money.

1:45:55.925,1:45:58.474
Have you been filming this whole time?

1:45:58.933,1:46:01.711
I said these horrible things about my ???

1:46:02.433,1:46:05.326
We're gonna have to edit that up, by the way.

1:46:10.426,1:46:14.568
Thank you all for coming, I'll stay here as long as you want, don't forget to get a copy of "Going Dark"...