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As a kid I always loved information

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that I could get from data

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and the stories that could be told with numbers.

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I remember, growing up, I'd be frustrated at

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how my own parents would lie to me using numbers.

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"Talithia, if I've told you once 
I've told you a thousand times."

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No dad, you've only told me 17 times

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and twice it wasn't my fault. (Laughter)

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I think that is one of the reasons I got a Ph.D. in statistics.

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I always wanted to know,

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what are people trying to hide with numbers?

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As a statistician,

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I want people to show me the data

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so I can decide for myself.

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Donald and I were pregnant with our third child

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and we were at about 41 and a half weeks,

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what some of you may refer to as being overdue.

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Statisticians, we call that

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being within the 95 percent confidence interval.

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(Laughter)

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And at this point in the process

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we had to come in every couple of days

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to do a stress test on the baby,

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and this is just routine,

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it tests whether or not the baby 
is feeling any type of undue stress.

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And you are rarely, if ever, seen by your actual doctor,

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just whoever happens to be 
working at the hospital that day.

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So we go in for a stress test and after 20 minutes

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the doctor comes out and he says,

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"Your baby is under stress, we need to induce you."

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Now, as a statistician, what's my response?

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Show me the data!

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So then he proceeds to tell us

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the baby's heart rate trace went from 18 minutes,

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the baby's heart rate was in the normal zone

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and for two minutes it was in what appeared to be

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my heart rate zone and I said,

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"Is it possible that maybe this was my heart rate?

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I was moving around a little bit,

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it's hard to lay still on your back,

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41 weeks pregnant for 20 minutes.

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Maybe it was shifting around."

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He said, "Well, we don't want to take any chances."

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I said okay.

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I said, "What if I was at 36 weeks

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with this same data?

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Would your decision be to induce?"

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"Well, no, I would wait until you were at least

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38 weeks, but you are almost 42,

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there is no reason to leave that baby inside,

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let's get you a room."

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I said, "Well, why don't we just do it again?

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We can collect more data.

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I can try to be really still for 20 minutes.

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We can average the two and see

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what that means. (Laughter)

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And he goes,

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"Ma'am, I just don't want you to have a miscarriage."

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That makes three of us.

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And then he says,

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"Your chances of having a miscarriage double

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when you go past your due date. Let's get you a room."

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Wow. So now as a statistician, what's my response?

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Show me the data!

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Dude, you're talking chances,

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I do chances all day long, tell me all about chances.

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Let's talk chances. (Laughter)

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Let's talk chances.

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So I say, "Okay, great.

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Do I go from a 30-percent 
chance to a 60-percent chance?

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Where are we here with this miscarriage thing?

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And he goes, "Not quite, but it doubles,

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and we really just want what's best for the baby."

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Undaunted, I try a different angle.

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I said, "Okay, out of 1,000 full-term pregnant women,

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how many of them are going to miscarry

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just before their due date?

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And then he looks at me and looks at Donald,

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and he goes, about one in 1,000.

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I said, "Okay, so of those 1,000 women, how many

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are going to miscarry just after their due date?"

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"About two." (Laughter)

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I said, "Okay, so you are telling me that my chances

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go from a 0.1-percent chance

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to a 0.2-percent chance."

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Okay, so at this point the data is not convincing us

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that we need to be induced,

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and so then we proceed to have a conversation

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about how inductions lead to a higher rate

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of Cesarean sections, and if at all 
possible we'd like to avoid that.

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And then I said,

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"And I really don't think my due date is accurate."

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(Laughter)

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And so this really stunned him

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and he looked sort of puzzled

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and I said, "You may not know this,

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but pregnancy due dates are calculated

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assuming that you have a standard 28-day cycle,

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and my cycle ranges —

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sometimes it's 27, sometimes it's up to 38 —

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and I have been collecting the data to prove it.

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(Laughter)

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And so we ended up leaving the hospital 
that day without being induced.

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We actually had to sign a waiver 
to walk out of the hospital.

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And I'm not advocating that you not listen to your doctors,

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because even with our first child,

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we were induced at 38 weeks; cervical fluid was low.

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I'm not anti-medical intervention.

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But why were confident to leave that day?

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Well, we had data that told a different story.

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We had been collecting data for six years.

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I had this temperature data,

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and it told a different story.

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In fact, we could probably pretty 
accurately estimate conception.

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Yeah, that's a story you want to tell

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at your kid's wedding reception. (Laughter)

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I remember like it was yesterday.

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My temperature was a sizzling 97.8 degrees

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as I stared into your father's eyes. (Laughter)

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Oh, yeah. Twenty-two more years, we're telling that story.

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But we were confident to leave 
because we had been collecting data.

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Now, what does that data look like?

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Here's a standard chart

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of a woman's waking body temperature

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during the course of a cycle.

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So from the beginning of the menstrual cycle

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till the beginning of the next.

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You'll see that the temperature is not random.

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Clearly there is a low pattern

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at the beginning of her cycle

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and then you see this jump and then a higher

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set of temperatures at the end of her cycle.

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So what's happening here?

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What is that data telling you?

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Well, ladies, at the beginning of our cycle,

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the hormone estrogen is dominant and that estrogen

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causes a suppression of your body temperature.

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And at ovulation, your body releases an egg

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and progesterone takes over, pro-gestation.

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And so your body heats up in anticipation

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of housing this new little fertilized egg.

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So why this temperature jump?

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Well, think about when a bird sits on her eggs.

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Why is she sitting on them?

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She wants to keep them warm,

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protect them and keep them warm.

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Ladies, this is exactly what our bodies do every month,

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they heat up in anticipation

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of keeping a new little life warm.

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And if nothing happens, if you are not pregnant,

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then estrogen takes back over and 
that cycle starts all over again.

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But if you do get pregnant, sometimes you

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actually see another shift in your temperatures

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and it stays elevated for those whole nine months.

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That's why you see those pregnant 
women just sweating and hot,

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because their temperatures are high.

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Here's a chart that we had about three or four years ago.

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We were really very excited about this chart.

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You'll see the low temperature level

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and then a shift and for about five days,

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that's about the time it takes for the egg to travel

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down the fallopian tube and implant,

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and then you see those temperatures 
start to go up a little bit.

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And in fact, we had a second temperature shift,

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confirmed with a pregnancy test 
that were indeed pregnant

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with our first child, very exciting.

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Until a couple of days later

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I saw some spotting and then I noticed heavy blood flow,

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and we had in fact had an early stage miscarriage.

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Had I not been taking my temperature

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I really would have just thought 
my period was late that month,

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but we actually had data to show

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that we had miscarried this baby,

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and even though this data revealed a really

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unfortunate event in our lives,

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it was information that we could then take to our doctor.

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So if there was a fertility issue or some problem,

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I had data to show:

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Look, we got pregnant, our temperature shifted,

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we somehow lost this baby.

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What is it that we can do to help prevent this problem?

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And it's not just about temperatures

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and it's not just about fertility;

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we can use data about our bodies to tell us a lot of things.

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For instance, did you know that taking 
your temperature can tell you a lot

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about the condition of your thyroid?

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So, your thyroid works a lot like 
the thermostat in your house.

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There is an optimal temperature 
that you want in your house;

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you set your thermostat.

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When it gets too cold in the house,
your thermostat kicks in

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and says, "Hey, we need to blow some heat around."

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Or if it gets too hot, your thermostat

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registers, "Turn the A.C. on. Cool us off."

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That's exactly how your thyroid works in your body.

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Your thyroid tries to keep an optimal temperature

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for your body.

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If it gets too cold, your thyroid 
says, "Hey, we need to heat up."

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If it gets too hot, your thyroid cools you down.

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But what happens when your 
thyroid is not functioning well?

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When it doesn't function, then it shows up

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in your body temperatures,

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they tend to be lower than normal or very erratic.

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And so by collecting this data

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you can find out information about your thyroid.

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Now, what is it, if you had a thyroid 
problem and you went to the doctor,

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your doctor would actually test the amount of

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thyroid stimulating hormone in your blood.

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Fine. But the problem with that test is

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it doesn't tell you how active the hormone is in your body.

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So you might have a lot of hormone present,

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but it might not be actively working to regulate

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your body temperature.

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So just by collecting your temperature every day,

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you get information about the condition of your thyroid.

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So, what if you don't want to take 
your temperature every day?

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I advocate that you do,

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but there are tons of other things you could take.

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You could take your blood pressure, 
you could take your weight —

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yeah, who's excited about

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taking their weight every day? (Laughter)

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Early on in our marriage, Donald had a stuffy nose

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and he had been taking a slew of medications

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to try to relieve his stuffy nose, to no avail.

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And so, that night he comes and 
he wakes me up and he says,

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"Honey, I can't breath out of my nose."

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And I roll over and I look, and I said, 
"Well, can you breath out of your mouth?"

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(Laughter)

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And he goes, "Yes, but I can't breath out of my nose!"

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And so like any good wife, I rush him

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to the emergency room

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at 2 o'clock in the morning.

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And the whole time I'm driving and I'm thinking,

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you can't die on me now.

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We just got married,

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people will think I killed you! (Laughter)

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And so, we get to the emergency 
room, and the nurse sees us,

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and he can't breath out of his nose, and so

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she brings us to the back and the doctor says,

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"What seems to be the problem?" and 
he goes, "I can't breath out of my nose."

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And he said, "You can't breath out of your nose?

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No, but he can breath out of his mouth. (Laughter)

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He takes a step back and he looks at both of us

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and he says "Sir, I think I know the problem.

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You're having a heart attack.

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I'm going to order an EKG and a CAT scan

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for you immediately."

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And we are thinking,

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no, no, no. It's not a heart attack. He can breathe,

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just out of his mouth. No, no, no, no, no.

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And so we go back and forth with this doctor

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because we think this is the incorrect diagnosis,

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and he's like, "No really, it'll be fine, just calm down."

253
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And I'm thinking, how do you calm down? 
But I don't think he's having a heart attack.

254
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And so fortunately for us, this 
doctor was at the end of the shift.

255
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So this new doctor comes in, he sees us clearly

256
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distraught, with a husband who can't breath

257
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out of his nose. (Laughter)

258
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And he starts asking us questions.

259
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He says, "Well, do you two exercise?"

260
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We ride our bikes, we go to the gym occasionally.

261
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(Laughter)

262
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We move around.

263
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And he says, "What were you doing 
just before you came here?"

264
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I'm thinking, I was sleeping, honestly.

265
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But okay, what was Donald doing just before?

266
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So Donald goes into this slew 
of medications he was taking.

267
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He lists, "I took this decongestant 
and then I took this nasal spray,"

268
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and then all of a sudden a lightbulb goes off and he says,

269
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"Oh! You should never mix this 
decongestant with this nasal spray.

270
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Clogs you up every time. Here, take this one instead."

271
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He gives us a prescription.

272
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We're looking at each other, and I looked at the doctor,

273
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and I said, "Why is it that it seems like you

274
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were able to accurately diagnose his condition,

275
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but this previous doctor wanted to order

276
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an EKG and a CAT scan?"

277
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And he looks at us and says,

278
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"Well, when a 350-pound man walks in the 
emergency room and says he can't breath,

279
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you assume he's having a heart attack

280
00:13:43,263 --> 00:13:47,212
and you ask questions later."

281
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Now, emergency room doctors are 
trained to make decisions quickly,

282
00:13:52,932 --> 00:13:55,023
but not always accurately.

283
00:13:55,023 --> 00:13:56,572
And so had we had some information

284
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about our heart health to share with him,

285
00:13:58,966 --> 00:14:02,741
maybe we would have gotten a 
better diagnosis the first time.

286
00:14:02,741 --> 00:14:04,973
I want you to consider the following chart,

287
00:14:04,973 --> 00:14:06,927
of systolic blood pressure measurements

288
00:14:06,927 --> 00:14:10,999
from October 2010 to July 2012.

289
00:14:10,999 --> 00:14:12,692
You'll see that these measurements start

290
00:14:12,692 --> 00:14:16,360
in the prehypertension/hypertension zone,

291
00:14:16,360 --> 00:14:18,946
but over about the course of a year and a half

292
00:14:18,946 --> 00:14:21,591
they move into the normal zone.

293
00:14:21,591 --> 00:14:25,700
This is about the heart rate of a healthy 16-year-old.

294
00:14:25,700 --> 00:14:29,731
What story is this data telling you?

295
00:14:29,731 --> 00:14:32,612
Obviously it's the data from someone

296
00:14:32,612 --> 00:14:35,285
who's made a drastic transformation,

297
00:14:35,285 --> 00:14:40,443
and fortunately for us, that person 
happens to be here today.

298
00:14:40,443 --> 00:14:44,697
So that 350-pound guy that walked 
into the emergency room with me

299
00:14:44,697 --> 00:14:47,669
is now an even sexier and healthier

300
00:14:47,669 --> 00:14:54,357
225-pound guy, and that's his blood pressure trace.

301
00:14:54,357 --> 00:14:57,818
So over the course of that year and a half

302
00:14:57,818 --> 00:14:59,387
Donald's eating changed

303
00:14:59,387 --> 00:15:01,378
and our exercise regimen changed,

304
00:15:01,378 --> 00:15:04,168
and his heart rate responded,

305
00:15:04,168 --> 00:15:05,670
his blood pressure responded to that change

306
00:15:05,670 --> 00:15:07,969
that he made in his body.

307
00:15:07,969 --> 00:15:09,947
So what's the take-home message

308
00:15:09,947 --> 00:15:13,661
that I want you to leave with today?

309
00:15:13,661 --> 00:15:18,035
By taking ownership of your data just like we've done,

310
00:15:18,035 --> 00:15:21,982
just by taking this daily measurements about yourself,

311
00:15:21,982 --> 00:15:24,491
you become the expert on your body.

312
00:15:24,491 --> 00:15:26,493
You become the authority.

313
00:15:26,493 --> 00:15:28,916
It's not hard to do.

314
00:15:28,916 --> 00:15:30,836
You don't have to have a Ph.D. in statistics

315
00:15:30,836 --> 00:15:32,168
to be an expert in yourself.

316
00:15:32,168 --> 00:15:33,609
You don't have to have a medical degree

317
00:15:33,609 --> 00:15:35,735
to be your body's expert.

318
00:15:35,735 --> 00:15:39,154
Medical doctors, they're experts on the population,

319
00:15:39,154 --> 00:15:41,432
but you are the expert on yourself.

320
00:15:41,432 --> 00:15:43,342
And so when two of you come together,

321
00:15:43,342 --> 00:15:45,312
when two experts come together,

322
00:15:45,312 --> 00:15:48,107
the two of you are able to make a better decision

323
00:15:48,107 --> 00:15:50,107
than just your doctor alone.

324
00:15:50,107 --> 00:15:53,874
Now that you understand the power of information

325
00:15:53,874 --> 00:15:55,745
that you can get through personal data collection,

326
00:15:55,745 --> 00:15:59,414
I'd like you all to stand and raise your right hand.

327
00:15:59,414 --> 00:16:01,973
(Laughter)

328
00:16:01,973 --> 00:16:04,093
Yes, get it up.

329
00:16:06,771 --> 00:16:13,679
I challenge you to take ownership of your data.

330
00:16:13,679 --> 00:16:17,241
And today, I hereby confer upon you

331
00:16:17,241 --> 00:16:21,586
a TEDx associate's degree in elementary statistics

332
00:16:21,586 --> 00:16:26,030
with a concentration in time-dependent data analysis

333
00:16:26,030 --> 00:16:29,743
with all the rights and privileges appertaining thereto.

334
00:16:29,743 --> 00:16:33,219
And so the next time you are in your doctor's office,

335
00:16:33,219 --> 00:16:36,410
as newly inducted statisticians,

336
00:16:36,410 --> 00:16:38,920
what should always be your response?

337
00:16:38,920 --> 00:16:40,752
Audience: Show me the data! 
Talithia Williams: I can't hear you!

338
00:16:40,752 --> 00:16:42,520
Audience: Show me the data!

339
00:16:42,520 --> 00:16:43,828
TW: One more time!

340
00:16:43,828 --> 00:16:45,367
Audience: Show me the data!

341
00:16:45,367 --> 00:16:46,549
TW: Show me the data.

342
00:16:46,549 --> 00:16:49,570
Thank you.

343
00:16:49,570 --> 00:16:54,370
(Applause)