WEBVTT

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If you have followed
diplomatic news recently,

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you may have heard
of a crisis between China and the U.S.

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regarding cyber attacks against Google.

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It has generated a lot of talk,
even of cyberwar,

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when it's more likely
a quite mishandled spy operation.

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However, this episode reveals
a growing anxiety in the Western World

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regarding the emergeance
of these cyber weapons

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These weapons are dangerous.
They are of a new nature.

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And they could lead the world
to a cyber-conflict

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that could turn into
a full-fledge armed struggle

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since these virtual weapons
can also destroy the physical world.

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In 1982, in the middle of the cold war
in soviet Siberia, a pipeline explodes

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with a burst of 3 kilotons,
that is one fourth of the Hiroshima bomb.

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We know today,
this was revealed by Thomas Reed,

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Reagan's former US Air Force Secretary,

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this explosion was actually
the result of a CIA sabotage operation.

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The CIA had infiltrated
the pipeline’s IT management systems

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More recently, the US government
revealed that in September 2008,

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3 million people in the state
of Espirito Santo In Brazil,

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were plunged into darkness

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because of some cyber-pirates'
blackmail operation

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Even more worrisome for the U.S.,
in December 2008,

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CentCom's very IT systems,

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the US Central Command managing the wars
in Iraq and Afghanistan,

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is said to have been infiltrated
by hackers using booby-trapped USB sticks;

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with these sticks, they may have been able
to enter these systems,

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to see and hear everything, and maybe
even booby-trap some of these systems.

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Americans take the threat very seriously:

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let me quote General James Cartwright,
Vice Chairman of the Joint Chief of Staff

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and who states in a report to Congress
that a cyberattack may be in the magnitude

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of a weapon of mass destruction.

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Americans will spend 30 billion dollars
in the next five years

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to build up their cyber-war capacities.

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And across the world today,
a sort of cyber-arms race is taking place

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with military cyber units built
by countries like North Korea or Iran.

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However, what you will never hear
from the Pentagon

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or the French Department of Defense,

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is that the issue is not necessarily
who the enemy is,

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but actually the very nature
of these new cyber weapons.

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To understand that,
let’s look at how, through history,

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new military technologies
made or broke world peace.

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For example, if TEDxParis
had been held 350 years ago,

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we would have talked about
the military innovation of the day,

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Vauban-style massive fortifications

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and we would have forecast a period
of stability in the world or in Europe,

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which was the case in Europe
from 1650 to 1750.

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Likewise, if we had this conference
30 or 40 years ago,

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we would have seen
how the advent of nuclear weapons

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and their inherent threat
of mutually-assured destruction

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would prohibit a direct fight
between the two Superpowers

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However, if we had this conference
60 years ago,

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we would have seen how the emerging
aircraft and tank technologies

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that give the advantage to the offensive
make credible the Blitzkrieg doctrine

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and chances of war in Europe.

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So military technologies
can make or break world peace.

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And here lies the issue
with cyber weapons.

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First issue: imagine a potential enemy

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announces he’s building
a cyber-war unit only for defense.

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Great, but what makes it different
from an offensive unit?

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The issue gets thornier
when doctrines of use become blurred.

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Just 3 years ago, the USA and France

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were both saying
they were going military into cyberspace

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but only to defend their IT systems.

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But today, both countries say
the best form of defense is attack.

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In this respect,
they’re matching up with China

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that over the last 15 years

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has had a doctrine of use
both offensive and defensive.

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Second issue:

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your country may be under cyber-attack

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with vast areas plunged
into total darkness,

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and you may be clueless
about who’s attacking you.

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A particular characteristic
of cyberweapons

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is they can be used
without leaving traces.

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This gives a tremendous advantage
to the attacker

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because the defender
doesn’t know against who to fight back.

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And if the defender
goes against the wrong adversary,

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they might end up with an additional enemy

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and isolated at the diplomatic level.

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This is not theoretical:

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in may 2007, Estonia was the target
of cyber-attacks putting at risk

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its communication and banking systems;

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Estonia accused Russia, but NATO,
though on Estonia's side,

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proved very prudent
because it couldn’t be 100% sure

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that the Kremlin
was really behind these attacks.

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To sum up, first when a potential enemy
says they're building a cyberwar unit,

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you don’t know
whether it’s for attack or defense,

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and secondly, we know that these weapons
give the advantage to the attack.

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In a 1978 seminal article,

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Prof. Robert Jervis,
from Columbia University, NY,

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described a model to understand
how conflicts could arise.

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In a situation in which you don’t know

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if the potential enemy is preparing
for defense or attack,

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and if weapons give
the advantage to the attack,

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then it is the most favorable
situation to trigger a war.

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This is the situation currently shaping up
with cyber weapons

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and historically
it's what the situation was in Europe

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at the onset of World War I.

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So cyber-weapons, by nature, are dangerous

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but on top of that, they’re emerging
in a much more unstable situation.

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Remember the cold war?

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It was a very tough game,
but played with only two players

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which allowed for some coordination
between the two Superpowers.

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But today we’re entering
a multi-polar world

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where coordination is much more complex.

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We’ve witnessed that at Copenhagen.

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And this coordination
may become even trickier

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with the introduction of cyber-weapons.

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Why? Because no nation knows for sure
whether its neighbor is about to attack.

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So nations may live under
what Nobel prize laureate Thomas Schelling

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has called the “reciprocal fear
of surprise attack”.

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Since I don’t know whether
my neighbor is about to attack me,

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and I may never know,
I may choose to be the first to attack

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In a New York Times article
dated January 2010, 26,

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it was revealed for the first time

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that officials
at the National Security Agency

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were considering pre-emptive attacks

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in case of an imminent
cyber-attack on the USA.

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And these pre-emptive attacks
or counter-attacks

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might not stay only in cyberspace.

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In May 2009, General Kevin Chilton,
Commander of the US nuclear forces,

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stated that in case
of cyber-attacks against the US,

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all the options would be on the table.

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Cyber weapons don’t suppress
conventional or nuclear armament.

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They're just an addition
to the existing terror devices.

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But they also add up
their own risk of triggering war,

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a very high risk, as we've just seen it,
a risk we'll have to face,

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maybe with a collective security solution
including all of us, European allies,

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NATO members,
with our American friends and allies,

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with our other Western allies,

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and maybe, twisting their arm a little,
our Russian and Chinese partners.

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Because the information technologies
Joel de Rosnay was just talking about,

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born historically
from our of military research,

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are today on the verge to develop
an offensive capability of destruction,

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which, if we're not careful,
could destroy world peace tomorrow.

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Thank you.

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(Applause)