[Script Info]
Title: 
[Events]
Format: Layer, Start, End, Style, Name, MarginL, MarginR, MarginV, Effect, Text
Dialogue: 0,0:00:01.51,0:00:03.82,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So a friend of mine who's a political scientist,
Dialogue: 0,0:00:03.82,0:00:05.43,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,he told me several months ago
Dialogue: 0,0:00:05.43,0:00:07.50,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,exactly what this month would be like.
Dialogue: 0,0:00:07.50,0:00:10.41,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,He said, you know, there's this fiscal cliff coming,
Dialogue: 0,0:00:10.41,0:00:14.02,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,it's going to come at the beginning of 2013.
Dialogue: 0,0:00:14.02,0:00:16.78,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Both parties absolutely need to resolve it,
Dialogue: 0,0:00:16.78,0:00:19.60,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,but neither party wants to be seen as the first to resolve it.
Dialogue: 0,0:00:19.60,0:00:23.82,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Neither party has any incentive to solve it a second before it's due,
Dialogue: 0,0:00:23.82,0:00:26.44,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,so he said, December, you're just going to see lots of
Dialogue: 0,0:00:26.44,0:00:29.66,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,angry negotiations, negotiations breaking apart,
Dialogue: 0,0:00:29.66,0:00:32.41,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,reports of phone calls that aren't going well,
Dialogue: 0,0:00:32.41,0:00:34.57,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,people saying nothing's happening at all,
Dialogue: 0,0:00:34.57,0:00:37.12,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and then sometime around Christmas or New Year's,
Dialogue: 0,0:00:37.12,0:00:39.72,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,we're going to hear, "Okay, they resolved everything."
Dialogue: 0,0:00:39.72,0:00:44.31,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,He told me that a few months ago. He said he's 98 percent positive they're going to resolve it,
Dialogue: 0,0:00:44.31,0:00:46.74,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and I got an email from him today saying, all right,
Dialogue: 0,0:00:46.74,0:00:50.72,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,we're basically on track, but now I'm 80 percent positive
Dialogue: 0,0:00:50.72,0:00:52.40,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that they're going to resolve it.
Dialogue: 0,0:00:52.40,0:00:54.94,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And it made me think. I love studying
Dialogue: 0,0:00:54.94,0:00:56.94,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,these moments in American history
Dialogue: 0,0:00:56.94,0:01:00.84,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,when there was this frenzy of partisan anger,
Dialogue: 0,0:01:00.84,0:01:03.98,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that the economy was on the verge of total collapse.
Dialogue: 0,0:01:03.98,0:01:08.22,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,The most famous early battle was Alexander Hamilton
Dialogue: 0,0:01:08.22,0:01:11.78,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and Thomas Jefferson over what the dollar would be
Dialogue: 0,0:01:11.78,0:01:14.10,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and how it would be backed up, with Alexander Hamilton
Dialogue: 0,0:01:14.10,0:01:17.34,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,saying, "We need a central bank, the First Bank of the United States,
Dialogue: 0,0:01:17.34,0:01:19.14,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,or else the dollar will have no value.
Dialogue: 0,0:01:19.14,0:01:20.77,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,This economy won't work,"
Dialogue: 0,0:01:20.77,0:01:23.18,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and Thomas Jefferson saying, "The people won't trust that.
Dialogue: 0,0:01:23.18,0:01:26.96,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,They just fought off a king. They're not going to accept some central authority."
Dialogue: 0,0:01:26.96,0:01:32.49,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,This battle defined the first 150 years of the U.S. economy,
Dialogue: 0,0:01:32.49,0:01:36.14,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and at every moment, different partisans saying,
Dialogue: 0,0:01:36.14,0:01:38.32,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,"Oh my God, the economy's about to collapse,"
Dialogue: 0,0:01:38.32,0:01:40.47,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and the rest of us just going about, spending our bucks
Dialogue: 0,0:01:40.47,0:01:43.70,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,on whatever it is we wanted to buy.
Dialogue: 0,0:01:43.70,0:01:46.43,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,To give you a quick primer on where we are,
Dialogue: 0,0:01:46.43,0:01:48.21,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,a quick refresher on where we are.
Dialogue: 0,0:01:48.21,0:01:50.77,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So the fiscal cliff, I was told
Dialogue: 0,0:01:50.77,0:01:53.24,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that that's too partisan a thing to say,
Dialogue: 0,0:01:53.24,0:01:56.66,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,although I can't remember which party it's supporting or attacking.
Dialogue: 0,0:01:56.66,0:01:59.02,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,People say we should call it the fiscal slope,
Dialogue: 0,0:01:59.02,0:02:01.07,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,or we should call it an austerity crisis,
Dialogue: 0,0:02:01.07,0:02:03.46,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,but then other people say, no, that's even more partisan.
Dialogue: 0,0:02:03.46,0:02:06.23,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So I just call it the self-imposed, self-destructive
Dialogue: 0,0:02:06.23,0:02:10.93,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,arbitrary deadline about resolving an inevitable problem.
Dialogue: 0,0:02:10.93,0:02:14.56,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And this is what the inevitable problem looks like.
Dialogue: 0,0:02:14.56,0:02:18.91,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So this is a projection of U.S. debt as a percentage
Dialogue: 0,0:02:18.91,0:02:21.28,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,of our overall economy, of GDP.
Dialogue: 0,0:02:21.28,0:02:24.64,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,The light blue dotted line represents
Dialogue: 0,0:02:24.64,0:02:26.77,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,the Congressional Budget Office's best guess
Dialogue: 0,0:02:26.77,0:02:30.85,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,of what will happen if Congress really doesn't do anything,
Dialogue: 0,0:02:30.85,0:02:34.36,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and as you can see, sometime around 2027,
Dialogue: 0,0:02:34.36,0:02:36.65,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,we reach Greek levels of debt,
Dialogue: 0,0:02:36.65,0:02:39.54,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,somewhere around 130 percent of GDP,
Dialogue: 0,0:02:39.54,0:02:42.90,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,which tells you that some time in the next 20 years,
Dialogue: 0,0:02:42.90,0:02:45.27,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,if Congress does absolutely nothing,
Dialogue: 0,0:02:45.27,0:02:48.94,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,we're going to hit a moment where the world's investors,
Dialogue: 0,0:02:48.94,0:02:50.54,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,the world's bond buyers, are going to say,
Dialogue: 0,0:02:50.54,0:02:53.34,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,"We don't trust America anymore. We're not going to lend them any money,
Dialogue: 0,0:02:53.34,0:02:55.37,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,except at really high interest rates."
Dialogue: 0,0:02:55.37,0:02:58.24,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And at that moment our economy collapses.
Dialogue: 0,0:02:58.24,0:03:00.09,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,But remember, Greece is there today.
Dialogue: 0,0:03:00.09,0:03:03.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,We're there in 20 years. We have lots and lots of time
Dialogue: 0,0:03:03.99,0:03:06.21,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,to avoid that crisis,
Dialogue: 0,0:03:06.21,0:03:09.91,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and the fiscal cliff was just one more attempt
Dialogue: 0,0:03:09.91,0:03:13.44,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,at trying to force the two sides to resolve the crisis.
Dialogue: 0,0:03:13.44,0:03:16.85,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Here's another way to look at exactly the same problem.
Dialogue: 0,0:03:16.85,0:03:19.80,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,The dark blue line is how much the government spends.
Dialogue: 0,0:03:19.80,0:03:23.25,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,The light blue line is how much the government gets in.
Dialogue: 0,0:03:23.25,0:03:26.01,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And as you can see, for most of recent history,
Dialogue: 0,0:03:26.01,0:03:29.64,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,except for a brief period, we have consistently spent
Dialogue: 0,0:03:29.64,0:03:32.84,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,more than we take in. Thus the national debt.
Dialogue: 0,0:03:32.84,0:03:36.72,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,But as you can also see, projected going forward,
Dialogue: 0,0:03:36.72,0:03:39.74,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,the gap widens a bit and raises a bit,
Dialogue: 0,0:03:39.74,0:03:41.79,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and this graph is only through 2021.
Dialogue: 0,0:03:41.79,0:03:45.45,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,It gets really, really ugly out towards 2030.
Dialogue: 0,0:03:45.45,0:03:49.58,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And this graph sort of sums up what the problem is.
Dialogue: 0,0:03:49.58,0:03:52.67,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,The Democrats, they say, well, this isn't a big deal.
Dialogue: 0,0:03:52.67,0:03:56.78,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,We can just raise taxes a bit and close that gap,
Dialogue: 0,0:03:56.78,0:03:59.04,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,especially if we raise taxes on the rich.
Dialogue: 0,0:03:59.04,0:04:01.66,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,The Republicans say, hey, no, no, we've got a better idea.
Dialogue: 0,0:04:01.66,0:04:03.10,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Why don't we lower both lines?
Dialogue: 0,0:04:03.10,0:04:07.06,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Why don't we lower government spending and lower government taxes,
Dialogue: 0,0:04:07.06,0:04:10.51,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and then we'll be on an even more favorable
Dialogue: 0,0:04:10.51,0:04:12.98,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,long-term deficit trajectory?
Dialogue: 0,0:04:12.98,0:04:17.56,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And behind this powerful disagreement between
Dialogue: 0,0:04:17.56,0:04:19.34,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,how to close that gap,
Dialogue: 0,0:04:19.34,0:04:22.73,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,there's the worst kind of cynical party politics,
Dialogue: 0,0:04:22.73,0:04:28.10,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,the worst kind of insider baseball, lobbying, all of that stuff,
Dialogue: 0,0:04:28.10,0:04:32.36,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,but there's also this powerfully interesting,
Dialogue: 0,0:04:32.36,0:04:34.80,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,respectful disagreement between
Dialogue: 0,0:04:34.80,0:04:38.32,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,two fundamentally different economic philosophies.
Dialogue: 0,0:04:38.32,0:04:43.15,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And I like to think, when I picture how Republicans
Dialogue: 0,0:04:43.15,0:04:48.28,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,see the economy, what I picture is just some amazingly
Dialogue: 0,0:04:48.28,0:04:51.59,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,well-engineered machine, some perfect machine.
Dialogue: 0,0:04:51.59,0:04:56.07,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Unfortunately, I picture it made in Germany or Japan,
Dialogue: 0,0:04:56.07,0:04:58.92,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,but this amazing machine that's constantly scouring
Dialogue: 0,0:04:58.92,0:05:04.02,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,every bit of human endeavor and taking resources,
Dialogue: 0,0:05:04.02,0:05:06.36,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,money, labor, capital, machinery,
Dialogue: 0,0:05:06.36,0:05:10.61,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,away from the least productive parts and towards the more productive parts,
Dialogue: 0,0:05:10.61,0:05:12.21,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and while this might cause temporary dislocation,
Dialogue: 0,0:05:12.21,0:05:15.70,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,what it does is it builds up the more productive areas
Dialogue: 0,0:05:15.70,0:05:18.33,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and lets the less productive areas fade away and die,
Dialogue: 0,0:05:18.33,0:05:21.11,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and as a result the whole system is so much more efficient,
Dialogue: 0,0:05:21.11,0:05:23.45,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,so much richer for everybody.
Dialogue: 0,0:05:23.45,0:05:27.36,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And this view generally believes that there is a role for government,
Dialogue: 0,0:05:27.36,0:05:30.18,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,a small role, to set the rules so people aren't lying
Dialogue: 0,0:05:30.18,0:05:32.43,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and cheating and hurting each other,
Dialogue: 0,0:05:32.43,0:05:35.73,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,maybe, you know, have a police force and a fire department
Dialogue: 0,0:05:35.73,0:05:38.73,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and an army, but to have a very limited reach
Dialogue: 0,0:05:38.73,0:05:41.73,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,into the mechanisms of this machinery.
Dialogue: 0,0:05:41.73,0:05:45.91,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And when I picture how Democrats and Democratic-leaning
Dialogue: 0,0:05:45.91,0:05:48.88,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,economists picture this economy,
Dialogue: 0,0:05:48.88,0:05:51.43,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,most Democratic economists are, you know, they're capitalists,
Dialogue: 0,0:05:51.43,0:05:54.17,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,they believe, yes, that's a good system a lot of the time.
Dialogue: 0,0:05:54.17,0:05:58.29,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,It's good to let markets move resources to their more productive use.
Dialogue: 0,0:05:58.29,0:06:02.21,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,But that system has tons of problems.
Dialogue: 0,0:06:02.21,0:06:04.54,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Wealth piles up in the wrong places.
Dialogue: 0,0:06:04.54,0:06:08.81,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Wealth is ripped away from people who shouldn't be called unproductive.
Dialogue: 0,0:06:08.81,0:06:11.68,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,That's not going to create an equitable, fair society.
Dialogue: 0,0:06:11.68,0:06:14.55,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,That machine doesn't care about the environment,
Dialogue: 0,0:06:14.55,0:06:16.62,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,about racism, about all these issues
Dialogue: 0,0:06:16.62,0:06:19.42,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that make this life worse for all of us,
Dialogue: 0,0:06:19.42,0:06:22.50,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and so the government does have a role to take resources
Dialogue: 0,0:06:22.50,0:06:25.78,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,from more productive uses, or from richer sources,
Dialogue: 0,0:06:25.78,0:06:28.44,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and give them to other sources.
Dialogue: 0,0:06:28.44,0:06:33.50,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And when you think about the economy through these two different lenses,
Dialogue: 0,0:06:33.50,0:06:37.56,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,you understand why this crisis is so hard to solve,
Dialogue: 0,0:06:37.56,0:06:41.55,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,because the worse the crisis gets, the higher the stakes are,
Dialogue: 0,0:06:41.55,0:06:44.32,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,the more each side thinks they know the answer
Dialogue: 0,0:06:44.32,0:06:47.67,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and the other side is just going to ruin everything.
Dialogue: 0,0:06:47.67,0:06:50.80,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And I can get really despairing. I've spent a lot
Dialogue: 0,0:06:50.80,0:06:53.87,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,of the last few years really depressed about this,
Dialogue: 0,0:06:53.87,0:06:56.92,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,until this year, I learned something that
Dialogue: 0,0:06:56.92,0:07:00.40,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,I felt really excited about. I feel like it's really good news,
Dialogue: 0,0:07:00.40,0:07:03.26,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and it's so shocking, I don't like saying it, because I think
Dialogue: 0,0:07:03.26,0:07:04.76,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,people won't believe me.
Dialogue: 0,0:07:04.76,0:07:06.08,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,But here's what I learned.
Dialogue: 0,0:07:06.08,0:07:08.50,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,The American people, taken as a whole,
Dialogue: 0,0:07:08.50,0:07:11.70,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,when it comes to these issues, to fiscal issues,
Dialogue: 0,0:07:11.70,0:07:15.42,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,are moderate, pragmatic centrists.
Dialogue: 0,0:07:15.42,0:07:17.69,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And I know that's hard to believe, that the American people
Dialogue: 0,0:07:17.69,0:07:19.12,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,are moderate, pragmatic centrists.
Dialogue: 0,0:07:19.12,0:07:21.70,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,But let me explain what I'm thinking.
Dialogue: 0,0:07:21.70,0:07:24.100,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,When you look at how the federal government spends money,
Dialogue: 0,0:07:24.100,0:07:27.57,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,so this is the battle right here,
Dialogue: 0,0:07:27.57,0:07:30.26,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,55 percent, more than half, is on Social Security,
Dialogue: 0,0:07:30.26,0:07:32.63,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Medicare, Medicaid, a few other health programs,
Dialogue: 0,0:07:32.63,0:07:35.65,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,20 percent defense, 19 percent discretionary,
Dialogue: 0,0:07:35.65,0:07:37.56,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and six percent interest.
Dialogue: 0,0:07:37.56,0:07:42.28,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So when we're talking about cutting government spending,
Dialogue: 0,0:07:42.28,0:07:44.28,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,this is the pie we're talking about,
Dialogue: 0,0:07:44.28,0:07:47.87,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and Americans overwhelmingly, and it doesn't matter
Dialogue: 0,0:07:47.87,0:07:51.40,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,what party they're in, overwhelmingly like
Dialogue: 0,0:07:51.40,0:07:53.84,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that big 55 percent chunk.
Dialogue: 0,0:07:53.84,0:07:55.83,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,They like Social Security. They like Medicare.
Dialogue: 0,0:07:55.83,0:07:59.36,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,They even like Medicaid, even though that goes to the poor and indigent,
Dialogue: 0,0:07:59.36,0:08:01.78,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,which you might think would have less support.
Dialogue: 0,0:08:01.78,0:08:05.74,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And they do not want it fundamentally touched,
Dialogue: 0,0:08:05.74,0:08:09.93,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,although the American people are remarkably comfortable,
Dialogue: 0,0:08:09.93,0:08:12.84,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and Democrats roughly equal to Republicans,
Dialogue: 0,0:08:12.84,0:08:17.60,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,with some minor tweaks to make the system more stable.
Dialogue: 0,0:08:17.60,0:08:20.36,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Social Security is fairly easy to fix.
Dialogue: 0,0:08:20.36,0:08:24.15,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,The rumors of its demise are always greatly exaggerated.
Dialogue: 0,0:08:24.15,0:08:26.44,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So gradually raise Social Security retirement age,
Dialogue: 0,0:08:26.44,0:08:28.82,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,maybe only on people not yet born.
Dialogue: 0,0:08:28.82,0:08:31.24,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Americans are about 50/50,
Dialogue: 0,0:08:31.24,0:08:33.24,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,whether they're Democrats or Republicans.
Dialogue: 0,0:08:33.24,0:08:35.59,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Reduce Medicare for very wealthy seniors,
Dialogue: 0,0:08:35.59,0:08:38.91,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,seniors who make a lot of money. Don't even eliminate it. Just reduce it.
Dialogue: 0,0:08:38.91,0:08:43.92,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,People generally are comfortable with it, Democrats and Republicans.
Dialogue: 0,0:08:43.92,0:08:46.23,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Raise medical health care contributions?
Dialogue: 0,0:08:46.23,0:08:48.66,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Everyone hates that equally, but Republicans
Dialogue: 0,0:08:48.66,0:08:51.33,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and Democrats hate that together.
Dialogue: 0,0:08:51.33,0:08:54.45,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And so what this tells me is, when you look at
Dialogue: 0,0:08:54.45,0:08:58.28,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,the discussion of how to resolve our fiscal problems,
Dialogue: 0,0:08:58.28,0:09:05.66,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,we are not a nation that's powerfully divided on the major, major issue.
Dialogue: 0,0:09:05.66,0:09:08.94,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,We're comfortable with it needing some tweaks, but we want to keep it.
Dialogue: 0,0:09:08.94,0:09:11.74,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,We're not open to a discussion of eliminating it.
Dialogue: 0,0:09:11.74,0:09:16.02,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Now there is one issue that is hyper-partisan,
Dialogue: 0,0:09:16.02,0:09:19.51,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and where there is one party that is just spend, spend, spend,
Dialogue: 0,0:09:19.51,0:09:21.39,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,we don't care, spend some more,
Dialogue: 0,0:09:21.39,0:09:23.30,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and that of course is Republicans
Dialogue: 0,0:09:23.30,0:09:25.28,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,when it comes to military defense spending.
Dialogue: 0,0:09:25.28,0:09:27.77,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,They way outweigh Democrats.
Dialogue: 0,0:09:27.77,0:09:32.56,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,The vast majority want to protect military defense spending.
Dialogue: 0,0:09:32.56,0:09:34.79,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,That's 20 percent of the budget,
Dialogue: 0,0:09:34.79,0:09:38.47,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and that presents a more difficult issue.
Dialogue: 0,0:09:38.47,0:09:41.39,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,I should also note that the [discretionary] spending,
Dialogue: 0,0:09:41.39,0:09:43.53,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,which is about 19 percent of the budget,
Dialogue: 0,0:09:43.53,0:09:45.90,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that is Democratic and Republican issues,
Dialogue: 0,0:09:45.90,0:09:48.27,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,so you do have welfare, food stamps, other programs
Dialogue: 0,0:09:48.27,0:09:50.30,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that tend to be popular among Democrats,
Dialogue: 0,0:09:50.30,0:09:53.26,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,but you also have the farm bill and all sorts of Department of Interior
Dialogue: 0,0:09:53.26,0:09:56.21,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,inducements for oil drilling and other things,
Dialogue: 0,0:09:56.21,0:09:59.82,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,which tend to be popular among Republicans.
Dialogue: 0,0:09:59.82,0:10:03.15,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Now when it comes to taxes, there is more disagreement.
Dialogue: 0,0:10:03.15,0:10:05.01,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,That's a more partisan area.
Dialogue: 0,0:10:05.01,0:10:08.41,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,You have Democrats overwhelmingly supportive
Dialogue: 0,0:10:08.41,0:10:12.46,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,of raising the income tax on people who make 250,000 dollars a year,
Dialogue: 0,0:10:12.46,0:10:17.70,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Republicans sort of against it, although if you break it out by income,
Dialogue: 0,0:10:17.70,0:10:22.39,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Republicans who make less than 75,000 dollars a year like this idea.
Dialogue: 0,0:10:22.39,0:10:26.74,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So basically Republicans who make more than 250,000 dollars a year don't want to be taxed.
Dialogue: 0,0:10:26.74,0:10:30.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Raising taxes on investment income, you also see
Dialogue: 0,0:10:30.00,0:10:32.86,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,about two thirds of Democrats but only one third of Republicans
Dialogue: 0,0:10:32.86,0:10:36.66,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,are comfortable with that idea.
Dialogue: 0,0:10:36.66,0:10:39.69,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,This brings up a really important point, which is that
Dialogue: 0,0:10:39.69,0:10:42.30,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,we tend in this country to talk about Democrats
Dialogue: 0,0:10:42.30,0:10:44.12,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and Republicans and think there's this little group
Dialogue: 0,0:10:44.12,0:10:46.48,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,over there called independents that's, what, two percent?
Dialogue: 0,0:10:46.48,0:10:48.59,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,If you add Democrats, you add Republicans,
Dialogue: 0,0:10:48.59,0:10:50.09,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,you've got the American people.
Dialogue: 0,0:10:50.09,0:10:53.03,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,But that is not the case at all.
Dialogue: 0,0:10:53.03,0:10:58.18,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And it has not been the case for most of modern American history.
Dialogue: 0,0:10:58.18,0:11:01.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Roughly a third of Americans say that they are Democrats.
Dialogue: 0,0:11:01.99,0:11:04.84,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Around a quarter say that they are Republicans.
Dialogue: 0,0:11:04.84,0:11:09.32,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,A tiny little sliver call themselves libertarians, or socialists,
Dialogue: 0,0:11:09.32,0:11:12.01,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,or some other small third party,
Dialogue: 0,0:11:12.01,0:11:17.22,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and the largest block, 40 percent, say they're independents.
Dialogue: 0,0:11:17.22,0:11:20.14,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So most Americans are not partisan,
Dialogue: 0,0:11:20.14,0:11:22.31,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and most of the people in the independent camp
Dialogue: 0,0:11:22.31,0:11:25.100,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,fall somewhere in between, so even though we have
Dialogue: 0,0:11:25.100,0:11:29.56,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,tremendous overlap between the views on these fiscal issues
Dialogue: 0,0:11:29.56,0:11:31.85,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,of Democrats and Republicans,
Dialogue: 0,0:11:31.85,0:11:35.64,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,we have even more overlap when you add in the independents.
Dialogue: 0,0:11:35.64,0:11:38.88,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Now we get to fight about all sorts of other issues.
Dialogue: 0,0:11:38.88,0:11:40.100,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,We get to hate each other on gun control
Dialogue: 0,0:11:40.100,0:11:43.28,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and abortion and the environment,
Dialogue: 0,0:11:43.28,0:11:46.15,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,but on these fiscal issues, these important fiscal issues,
Dialogue: 0,0:11:46.15,0:11:49.98,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,we just are not anywhere nearly as divided as people say.
Dialogue: 0,0:11:49.98,0:11:52.01,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And in fact, there's this other group of people
Dialogue: 0,0:11:52.01,0:11:55.35,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,who are not as divided as people might think,
Dialogue: 0,0:11:55.35,0:11:57.36,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and that group is economists.
Dialogue: 0,0:11:57.36,0:12:02.67,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,I talk to a lot of economists, and back in the '70s
Dialogue: 0,0:12:02.67,0:12:05.77,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and '80s it was ugly being an economist.
Dialogue: 0,0:12:05.77,0:12:08.94,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,You were in what they called the saltwater camp,
Dialogue: 0,0:12:08.94,0:12:13.56,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,meaning Harvard, Princeton, MIT, Stanford, Berkeley,
Dialogue: 0,0:12:13.56,0:12:16.52,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,or you were in the freshwater camp, University of Chicago,
Dialogue: 0,0:12:16.52,0:12:17.98,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,University of Rochester.
Dialogue: 0,0:12:17.98,0:12:20.97,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,You were a free market capitalist economist
Dialogue: 0,0:12:20.97,0:12:23.10,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,or you were a Keynesian liberal economist,
Dialogue: 0,0:12:23.10,0:12:25.28,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and these people didn't go to each other's weddings,
Dialogue: 0,0:12:25.28,0:12:27.17,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,they snubbed each other at conferences.
Dialogue: 0,0:12:27.17,0:12:30.18,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,It's still ugly to this day, but in my experience,
Dialogue: 0,0:12:30.18,0:12:33.78,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,it is really, really hard to find an economist under 40
Dialogue: 0,0:12:33.78,0:12:37.80,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,who still has that kind of way of seeing the world.
Dialogue: 0,0:12:37.80,0:12:40.76,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,The vast majority of economists -- it is so uncool
Dialogue: 0,0:12:40.76,0:12:43.60,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,to call yourself an ideologue of either camp.
Dialogue: 0,0:12:43.60,0:12:46.12,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,The phrase that you want, if you're a graduate student
Dialogue: 0,0:12:46.12,0:12:48.65,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,or a postdoc or you're a professor,
Dialogue: 0,0:12:48.65,0:12:51.62,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,a 38-year-old economics professor, is, "I'm an empiricist.
Dialogue: 0,0:12:51.62,0:12:53.17,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,I go by the data."
Dialogue: 0,0:12:53.17,0:12:55.57,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And the data is very clear.
Dialogue: 0,0:12:55.57,0:12:59.59,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,None of these major theories have been completely successful.
Dialogue: 0,0:12:59.59,0:13:01.24,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,The 20th century, the last hundred years,
Dialogue: 0,0:13:01.24,0:13:04.19,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,is riddled with disastrous examples
Dialogue: 0,0:13:04.19,0:13:07.86,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,of times that one school or the other tried to explain
Dialogue: 0,0:13:07.86,0:13:10.18,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,the past or predict the future
Dialogue: 0,0:13:10.18,0:13:12.07,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and just did an awful, awful job,
Dialogue: 0,0:13:12.07,0:13:17.26,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,so the economics profession has acquired some degree of modesty.
Dialogue: 0,0:13:17.26,0:13:20.85,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,They still are an awfully arrogant group of people, I will assure you,
Dialogue: 0,0:13:20.85,0:13:23.73,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,but they're now arrogant about their impartiality,
Dialogue: 0,0:13:23.73,0:13:30.52,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and they, too, see a tremendous range of potential outcomes.
Dialogue: 0,0:13:30.52,0:13:35.62,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And this nonpartisanship is something that exists,
Dialogue: 0,0:13:35.62,0:13:37.36,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that has existed in secret
Dialogue: 0,0:13:37.36,0:13:39.08,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,in America for years and years and years.
Dialogue: 0,0:13:39.08,0:13:43.04,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,I've spent a lot of the fall talking to the three major
Dialogue: 0,0:13:43.04,0:13:46.94,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,organizations that survey American political attitudes:
Dialogue: 0,0:13:46.94,0:13:48.49,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Pew Research,
Dialogue: 0,0:13:48.49,0:13:52.14,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,the University of Chicago's National Opinion Research Center,
Dialogue: 0,0:13:52.14,0:13:54.98,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and the most important but the least known
Dialogue: 0,0:13:54.98,0:13:57.96,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,is the American National Election Studies group
Dialogue: 0,0:13:57.96,0:14:02.31,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that is the world's longest, most respected poll of political attitudes.
Dialogue: 0,0:14:02.31,0:14:04.27,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,They've been doing it since 1948,
Dialogue: 0,0:14:04.27,0:14:07.76,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and what they show consistently throughout
Dialogue: 0,0:14:07.76,0:14:12.20,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,is that it's almost impossible to find Americans
Dialogue: 0,0:14:12.20,0:14:15.36,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,who are consistent ideologically,
Dialogue: 0,0:14:15.36,0:14:19.10,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,who consistently support, "No we mustn't tax,
Dialogue: 0,0:14:19.10,0:14:21.78,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and we must limit the size of government,"
Dialogue: 0,0:14:21.78,0:14:25.48,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,or, "No, we must encourage government to play a larger role
Dialogue: 0,0:14:25.48,0:14:29.48,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,in redistribution and correcting the ills of capitalism."
Dialogue: 0,0:14:29.48,0:14:31.35,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Those groups are very, very small.
Dialogue: 0,0:14:31.35,0:14:34.35,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,The vast majority of people, they pick and choose,
Dialogue: 0,0:14:34.35,0:14:36.91,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,they see compromise and they change over time
Dialogue: 0,0:14:36.91,0:14:39.45,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,when they hear a better argument or a worse argument.
Dialogue: 0,0:14:39.45,0:14:42.81,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And that part of it has not changed.
Dialogue: 0,0:14:42.81,0:14:46.76,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,What has changed is how people respond to vague questions.
Dialogue: 0,0:14:46.76,0:14:49.36,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,If you ask people vague questions, like,
Dialogue: 0,0:14:49.36,0:14:52.35,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,"Do you think there should be more government or less government?"
Dialogue: 0,0:14:52.35,0:14:56.66,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,"Do you think government should" — especially if you use loaded language --
Dialogue: 0,0:14:56.66,0:14:59.14,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,"Do you think the government should provide handouts?"
Dialogue: 0,0:14:59.14,0:15:01.07,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Or, "Do you think the government should redistribute?"
Dialogue: 0,0:15:01.07,0:15:03.67,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Then you can see radical partisan change.
Dialogue: 0,0:15:03.67,0:15:06.37,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,But when you get specific, when you actually ask
Dialogue: 0,0:15:06.37,0:15:10.41,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,about the actual taxing and spending issues under consideration,
Dialogue: 0,0:15:10.41,0:15:13.02,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,people are remarkably centrist,
Dialogue: 0,0:15:13.02,0:15:15.88,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,they're remarkably open to compromise.
Dialogue: 0,0:15:15.88,0:15:19.66,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So what we have, then, when you think about the fiscal cliff,
Dialogue: 0,0:15:19.66,0:15:24.19,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,don't think of it as the American people fundamentally
Dialogue: 0,0:15:24.19,0:15:26.37,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,can't stand each other on these issues
Dialogue: 0,0:15:26.37,0:15:27.92,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and that we must be ripped apart
Dialogue: 0,0:15:27.92,0:15:30.24,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,into two separate warring nations.
Dialogue: 0,0:15:30.24,0:15:36.17,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Think of it as a tiny, tiny number of ancient economists
Dialogue: 0,0:15:36.17,0:15:40.02,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and misrepresentative ideologues have captured the process.
Dialogue: 0,0:15:40.02,0:15:42.59,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And they've captured the process through familiar ways,
Dialogue: 0,0:15:42.59,0:15:45.54,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,through a primary system which encourages
Dialogue: 0,0:15:45.54,0:15:47.78,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that small group of people's voices,
Dialogue: 0,0:15:47.78,0:15:49.88,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,because that small group of people,
Dialogue: 0,0:15:49.88,0:15:52.95,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,the people who answer all yeses or all noes
Dialogue: 0,0:15:52.95,0:15:55.36,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,on those ideological questions,
Dialogue: 0,0:15:55.36,0:15:57.97,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,they might be small but every one of them has a blog,
Dialogue: 0,0:15:57.97,0:16:01.72,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,every one of them has been on Fox or MSNBC in the last week.
Dialogue: 0,0:16:01.72,0:16:04.87,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Every one of them becomes a louder and louder voice,
Dialogue: 0,0:16:04.87,0:16:07.01,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,but they don't represent us.
Dialogue: 0,0:16:07.01,0:16:10.11,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,They don't represent what our views are.
Dialogue: 0,0:16:10.11,0:16:11.91,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And that gets me back to the dollar,
Dialogue: 0,0:16:11.91,0:16:15.14,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and it gets me back to reminding myself that
Dialogue: 0,0:16:15.14,0:16:17.15,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,we know this experience.
Dialogue: 0,0:16:17.15,0:16:18.79,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,We know what it's like
Dialogue: 0,0:16:18.79,0:16:24.15,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,to have these people on TV, in Congress,
Dialogue: 0,0:16:24.15,0:16:26.88,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,yelling about how the end of the world is coming
Dialogue: 0,0:16:26.88,0:16:30.10,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,if we don't adopt their view completely,
Dialogue: 0,0:16:30.10,0:16:32.10,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,because it's happened about the dollar
Dialogue: 0,0:16:32.10,0:16:34.10,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,ever since there's been a dollar.
Dialogue: 0,0:16:34.10,0:16:37.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,We had the battle between Jefferson and Hamilton.
Dialogue: 0,0:16:37.99,0:16:42.66,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,In 1913, we had this ugly battle over the Federal Reserve,
Dialogue: 0,0:16:42.66,0:16:46.54,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,when it was created, with vicious, angry arguments
Dialogue: 0,0:16:46.54,0:16:48.41,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,over how it would be constituted,
Dialogue: 0,0:16:48.41,0:16:50.18,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and a general agreement that the way it was constituted
Dialogue: 0,0:16:50.18,0:16:53.09,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,was the worst possible compromise,
Dialogue: 0,0:16:53.09,0:16:56.45,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,a compromise guaranteed to destroy this valuable thing,
Dialogue: 0,0:16:56.45,0:16:58.81,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,this dollar, but then everyone agreeing, okay,
Dialogue: 0,0:16:58.81,0:17:01.32,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,so long as we're on the gold standard, it should be okay.
Dialogue: 0,0:17:01.32,0:17:03.37,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,The Fed can't mess it up so badly.
Dialogue: 0,0:17:03.37,0:17:07.51,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,But then we got off the gold standard for individuals
Dialogue: 0,0:17:07.51,0:17:09.92,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,during the Depression and we got off the gold standard
Dialogue: 0,0:17:09.92,0:17:14.02,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,as a source of international currency coordination
Dialogue: 0,0:17:14.02,0:17:16.25,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,during Richard Nixon's presidency.
Dialogue: 0,0:17:16.25,0:17:20.22,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Each of those times, we were on the verge of complete collapse.
Dialogue: 0,0:17:20.22,0:17:22.38,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And nothing happened at all.
Dialogue: 0,0:17:22.38,0:17:24.32,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Throughout it all, the dollar has been
Dialogue: 0,0:17:24.32,0:17:26.62,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,one of the most long-standing,
Dialogue: 0,0:17:26.62,0:17:28.76,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,stable, reasonable currencies,
Dialogue: 0,0:17:28.76,0:17:30.93,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and we all use it every single day,
Dialogue: 0,0:17:30.93,0:17:33.95,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,no matter what the people screaming about tell us,
Dialogue: 0,0:17:33.95,0:17:36.100,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,no matter how scared we're supposed to be.
Dialogue: 0,0:17:36.100,0:17:40.94,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And this long-term fiscal picture that we're in right now,
Dialogue: 0,0:17:40.94,0:17:44.87,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,I think what is most maddening about it is,
Dialogue: 0,0:17:44.87,0:17:48.81,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,if Congress were simply able
Dialogue: 0,0:17:48.81,0:17:51.18,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,to show not that they agree with each other,
Dialogue: 0,0:17:51.18,0:17:54.46,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,not that they're able to come up with the best possible compromise,
Dialogue: 0,0:17:54.46,0:17:57.54,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,but that they are able to just begin the process
Dialogue: 0,0:17:57.54,0:18:02.02,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,towards compromise, we all instantly are better off.
Dialogue: 0,0:18:02.02,0:18:06.16,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,The fear is that the world is watching.
Dialogue: 0,0:18:06.16,0:18:09.62,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,The fear is that the longer we delay any solution,
Dialogue: 0,0:18:09.62,0:18:11.40,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,the more the world will look to the U.S.
Dialogue: 0,0:18:11.40,0:18:15.02,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,not as the bedrock of stability in the global economy,
Dialogue: 0,0:18:15.02,0:18:18.60,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,but as a place that can't resolve its own fights,
Dialogue: 0,0:18:18.60,0:18:22.42,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and the longer we put that off, the more we make the world nervous,
Dialogue: 0,0:18:22.42,0:18:24.21,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,the higher interest rates are going to be,
Dialogue: 0,0:18:24.21,0:18:26.91,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,the quicker we're going to have to face a day
Dialogue: 0,0:18:26.91,0:18:29.02,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,of horrible calamity.
Dialogue: 0,0:18:29.02,0:18:32.58,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And so just the act of compromise itself,
Dialogue: 0,0:18:32.58,0:18:34.48,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and sustained, real compromise,
Dialogue: 0,0:18:34.48,0:18:36.30,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,would give us even more time,
Dialogue: 0,0:18:36.30,0:18:39.26,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,would allow both sides even longer to spread out the pain
Dialogue: 0,0:18:39.26,0:18:41.89,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and reach even more compromise down the road.
Dialogue: 0,0:18:41.89,0:18:45.01,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So I'm in the media. I feel like my job to make this happen
Dialogue: 0,0:18:45.01,0:18:49.30,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,is to help foster the things that seem to lead to compromise,
Dialogue: 0,0:18:49.30,0:18:53.41,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,to not talk about this in those vague and scary terms
Dialogue: 0,0:18:53.41,0:18:54.97,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that do polarize us,
Dialogue: 0,0:18:54.97,0:18:57.58,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,but to just talk about it like what it is,
Dialogue: 0,0:18:57.58,0:18:59.52,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,not an existential crisis,
Dialogue: 0,0:18:59.52,0:19:04.50,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,not some battle between two fundamentally different religious views,
Dialogue: 0,0:19:04.50,0:19:07.10,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,but a math problem, a really solvable math problem,
Dialogue: 0,0:19:07.10,0:19:09.18,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,one where we're not all going to get what we want
Dialogue: 0,0:19:09.18,0:19:13.13,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and one where, you know, there's going to be a little pain to spread around.
Dialogue: 0,0:19:13.13,0:19:16.64,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,But the more we address it as a practical concern,
Dialogue: 0,0:19:16.64,0:19:18.16,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,the sooner we can resolve it,
Dialogue: 0,0:19:18.16,0:19:21.62,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and the more time we have to resolve it, paradoxically.
Dialogue: 0,0:19:21.62,0:19:26.61,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Thank you. (Applause)