[Script Info]
Title: 
[Events]
Format: Layer, Start, End, Style, Name, MarginL, MarginR, MarginV, Effect, Text
Dialogue: 0,0:00:00.33,0:00:03.28,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,The writer George Eliot cautioned us that,
Dialogue: 0,0:00:03.28,0:00:05.34,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,among all forms of mistake,
Dialogue: 0,0:00:05.34,0:00:07.71,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,prophesy is the most gratuitous.
Dialogue: 0,0:00:07.71,0:00:09.56,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,The person that we would all acknowledge
Dialogue: 0,0:00:09.56,0:00:13.86,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,as her 20th-century counterpart, Yogi Berra, agreed.
Dialogue: 0,0:00:13.86,0:00:15.72,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,He said, "It's tough to make predictions,
Dialogue: 0,0:00:15.72,0:00:18.46,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,especially about the future."
Dialogue: 0,0:00:18.46,0:00:20.27,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,I'm going to ignore their cautions
Dialogue: 0,0:00:20.27,0:00:22.24,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and make one very specific forecast.
Dialogue: 0,0:00:22.24,0:00:24.88,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,In the world that we are creating very quickly,
Dialogue: 0,0:00:24.88,0:00:26.60,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,we're going to see more and more things
Dialogue: 0,0:00:26.60,0:00:28.32,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that look like science fiction,
Dialogue: 0,0:00:28.32,0:00:31.44,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and fewer and fewer things that look like jobs.
Dialogue: 0,0:00:31.44,0:00:34.19,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Our cars are very quickly going to start driving themselves,
Dialogue: 0,0:00:34.19,0:00:36.88,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,which means we're going to need fewer truck drivers.
Dialogue: 0,0:00:36.88,0:00:39.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,We're going to hook Siri up to Watson
Dialogue: 0,0:00:39.00,0:00:41.60,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and use that to automate a lot of the work
Dialogue: 0,0:00:41.60,0:00:43.83,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that's currently done by customer service reps
Dialogue: 0,0:00:43.83,0:00:46.73,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and troubleshooters and diagnosers,
Dialogue: 0,0:00:46.73,0:00:48.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and we're already taking R2D2,
Dialogue: 0,0:00:48.99,0:00:52.23,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,painting him orange, and putting him to work
Dialogue: 0,0:00:52.23,0:00:54.78,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,carrying shelves around warehouses,
Dialogue: 0,0:00:54.78,0:00:56.85,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,which means we need a lot fewer people
Dialogue: 0,0:00:56.85,0:00:58.82,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,to be walking up and down those aisles.
Dialogue: 0,0:00:58.82,0:01:02.62,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Now, for about 200 years,
Dialogue: 0,0:01:02.62,0:01:04.80,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,people have been saying exactly what I'm telling you --
Dialogue: 0,0:01:04.80,0:01:07.62,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,the age of technological unemployment is at hand —
Dialogue: 0,0:01:07.62,0:01:10.04,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,starting with the Luddites smashing looms in Britain
Dialogue: 0,0:01:10.04,0:01:11.93,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,just about two centuries ago,
Dialogue: 0,0:01:11.93,0:01:13.96,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and they have been wrong.
Dialogue: 0,0:01:13.96,0:01:16.78,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Our economies in the developed world have coasted along
Dialogue: 0,0:01:16.78,0:01:18.71,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,on something pretty close to full employment.
Dialogue: 0,0:01:18.71,0:01:20.81,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Which brings up a critical question:
Dialogue: 0,0:01:20.81,0:01:23.74,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Why is this time different, if it really is?
Dialogue: 0,0:01:23.74,0:01:26.74,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,The reason it's different is that, just in the past few years,
Dialogue: 0,0:01:26.74,0:01:28.63,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,our machines have started demonstrating skills
Dialogue: 0,0:01:28.63,0:01:31.26,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,they have never, ever had before:
Dialogue: 0,0:01:31.26,0:01:34.52,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,understanding, speaking, hearing, seeing,
Dialogue: 0,0:01:34.52,0:01:38.73,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,answering, writing, and they're still acquiring new skills.
Dialogue: 0,0:01:38.73,0:01:41.30,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,For example, mobile humanoid robots
Dialogue: 0,0:01:41.30,0:01:43.24,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,are still incredibly primitive,
Dialogue: 0,0:01:43.24,0:01:45.08,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,but the research arm of the Defense Department
Dialogue: 0,0:01:45.08,0:01:46.60,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,just launched a competition
Dialogue: 0,0:01:46.60,0:01:48.91,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,to have them do things like this,
Dialogue: 0,0:01:48.91,0:01:50.64,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and if the track record is any guide,
Dialogue: 0,0:01:50.64,0:01:53.04,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,this competition is going to be successful.
Dialogue: 0,0:01:53.04,0:01:56.68,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So when I look around, I think the day is not too far off at all
Dialogue: 0,0:01:56.68,0:01:58.86,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,when we're going to have androids
Dialogue: 0,0:01:58.86,0:02:01.74,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,doing a lot of the work that we are doing right now.
Dialogue: 0,0:02:01.74,0:02:05.50,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And we're creating a world where there is going to be
Dialogue: 0,0:02:05.50,0:02:09.18,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,more and more technology and fewer and fewer jobs.
Dialogue: 0,0:02:09.18,0:02:11.43,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,It's a world that Erik Brynjolfsson and I are calling
Dialogue: 0,0:02:11.43,0:02:12.92,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,"the new machine age."
Dialogue: 0,0:02:12.92,0:02:15.05,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,The thing to keep in mind is that
Dialogue: 0,0:02:15.05,0:02:17.60,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,this is absolutely great news.
Dialogue: 0,0:02:17.60,0:02:20.92,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,This is the best economic news on the planet these days.
Dialogue: 0,0:02:20.92,0:02:24.45,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Not that there's a lot of competition, right?
Dialogue: 0,0:02:24.45,0:02:26.35,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,This is the best economic news we have these days
Dialogue: 0,0:02:26.35,0:02:27.96,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,for two main reasons.
Dialogue: 0,0:02:27.96,0:02:30.95,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,The first is, technological progress is what allows us
Dialogue: 0,0:02:30.95,0:02:34.68,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,to continue this amazing recent run that we're on
Dialogue: 0,0:02:34.68,0:02:37.21,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,where output goes up over time,
Dialogue: 0,0:02:37.21,0:02:40.53,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,while at the same time, prices go down,
Dialogue: 0,0:02:40.53,0:02:44.74,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and volume and quality just continue to explode.
Dialogue: 0,0:02:44.74,0:02:46.74,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Now, some people look at this and talk about
Dialogue: 0,0:02:46.74,0:02:48.14,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,shallow materialism,
Dialogue: 0,0:02:48.14,0:02:50.56,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,but that's absolutely the wrong way to look at it.
Dialogue: 0,0:02:50.56,0:02:53.06,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,This is abundance, which is exactly
Dialogue: 0,0:02:53.06,0:02:56.48,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,what we want our economic system to provide.
Dialogue: 0,0:02:56.48,0:02:59.69,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,The second reason that the new machine age
Dialogue: 0,0:02:59.69,0:03:02.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,is such great news is that, once the androids
Dialogue: 0,0:03:02.00,0:03:05.25,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,start doing jobs, we don't have to do them anymore,
Dialogue: 0,0:03:05.25,0:03:09.01,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and we get freed up from drudgery and toil.
Dialogue: 0,0:03:09.01,0:03:11.03,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Now, when I talk about this with my friends
Dialogue: 0,0:03:11.03,0:03:13.58,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,in Cambridge and Silicon Valley, they say,
Dialogue: 0,0:03:13.58,0:03:15.86,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,"Fantastic. No more drudgery, no more toil.
Dialogue: 0,0:03:15.86,0:03:17.91,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,This gives us the chance to imagine
Dialogue: 0,0:03:17.91,0:03:20.20,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,an entirely different kind of society,
Dialogue: 0,0:03:20.20,0:03:23.11,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,a society where the creators and the discoverers
Dialogue: 0,0:03:23.11,0:03:24.94,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and the performers and the innovators
Dialogue: 0,0:03:24.94,0:03:28.45,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,come together with their patrons and their financiers
Dialogue: 0,0:03:28.45,0:03:31.13,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,to talk about issues, entertain, enlighten,
Dialogue: 0,0:03:31.13,0:03:33.21,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,provoke each other."
Dialogue: 0,0:03:33.21,0:03:37.78,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,It's a society really, that looks a lot like the TED Conference.
Dialogue: 0,0:03:37.78,0:03:40.27,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And there's actually a huge amount of truth here.
Dialogue: 0,0:03:40.27,0:03:43.29,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,We are seeing an amazing flourishing taking place.
Dialogue: 0,0:03:43.29,0:03:45.29,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,In a world where it is just about as easy
Dialogue: 0,0:03:45.29,0:03:48.70,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,to generate an object as it is to print a document,
Dialogue: 0,0:03:48.70,0:03:50.79,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,we have amazing new possibilities.
Dialogue: 0,0:03:50.79,0:03:54.46,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,The people who used to be craftsmen and hobbyists
Dialogue: 0,0:03:54.46,0:03:56.33,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,are now makers, and they're responsible
Dialogue: 0,0:03:56.33,0:03:58.72,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,for massive amounts of innovation.
Dialogue: 0,0:03:58.72,0:04:01.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And artists who were formerly constrained
Dialogue: 0,0:04:01.00,0:04:04.17,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,can now do things that were never, ever possible
Dialogue: 0,0:04:04.17,0:04:06.07,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,for them before.
Dialogue: 0,0:04:06.07,0:04:08.18,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So this is a time of great flourishing,
Dialogue: 0,0:04:08.18,0:04:11.12,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and the more I look around, the more convinced I become
Dialogue: 0,0:04:11.12,0:04:14.19,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that this quote, from the physicist Freeman Dyson,
Dialogue: 0,0:04:14.19,0:04:16.22,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,is not hyperbole at all.
Dialogue: 0,0:04:16.22,0:04:19.01,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,This is just a plain statement of the facts.
Dialogue: 0,0:04:19.01,0:04:20.86,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,We are in the middle of an astonishing period.
Dialogue: 0,0:04:20.86,0:04:21.74,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,["Technology is a gift of God. After the gift of life it is perhaps the greatest of God's gifts. It is the mother of civilizations, of arts and of sciences." — Freeman Dyson]
Dialogue: 0,0:04:21.74,0:04:24.53,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Which brings up another great question:
Dialogue: 0,0:04:24.53,0:04:27.51,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,What could possibly go wrong in this new machine age?
Dialogue: 0,0:04:27.51,0:04:30.87,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Right? Great, hang up, flourish, go home.
Dialogue: 0,0:04:30.87,0:04:33.54,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,We're going to face two really thorny sets of challenges
Dialogue: 0,0:04:33.54,0:04:36.33,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,as we head deeper into the future that we're creating.
Dialogue: 0,0:04:36.33,0:04:39.58,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,The first are economic, and they're really nicely summarized
Dialogue: 0,0:04:39.58,0:04:42.67,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,in an apocryphal story about a back-and-forth
Dialogue: 0,0:04:42.67,0:04:45.71,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,between Henry Ford II and Walter Reuther,
Dialogue: 0,0:04:45.71,0:04:48.46,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,who was the head of the auto workers union.
Dialogue: 0,0:04:48.46,0:04:50.64,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,They were touring one of the new modern factories,
Dialogue: 0,0:04:50.64,0:04:53.39,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and Ford playfully turns to Reuther and says,
Dialogue: 0,0:04:53.39,0:04:55.55,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,"Hey Walter, how are you going to get these robots
Dialogue: 0,0:04:55.55,0:04:57.37,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,to pay union dues?"
Dialogue: 0,0:04:57.37,0:04:59.31,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And Reuther shoots back, "Hey Henry,
Dialogue: 0,0:04:59.31,0:05:03.85,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,how are you going to get them to buy cars?"
Dialogue: 0,0:05:03.85,0:05:06.86,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Reuther's problem in that anecdote
Dialogue: 0,0:05:06.86,0:05:10.97,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,is that it is tough to offer your labor to an economy
Dialogue: 0,0:05:10.97,0:05:12.61,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that's full of machines,
Dialogue: 0,0:05:12.61,0:05:14.83,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and we see this very clearly in the statistics.
Dialogue: 0,0:05:14.83,0:05:17.22,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,If you look over the past couple decades
Dialogue: 0,0:05:17.22,0:05:20.89,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,at the returns to capital -- in other words, corporate profits --
Dialogue: 0,0:05:20.89,0:05:22.57,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,we see them going up,
Dialogue: 0,0:05:22.57,0:05:24.66,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and we see that they're now at an all-time high.
Dialogue: 0,0:05:24.66,0:05:27.36,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,If we look at the returns to labor, in other words
Dialogue: 0,0:05:27.36,0:05:29.24,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,total wages paid out in the economy,
Dialogue: 0,0:05:29.24,0:05:31.79,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,we see them at an all-time low
Dialogue: 0,0:05:31.79,0:05:34.86,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and heading very quickly in the opposite direction.
Dialogue: 0,0:05:34.86,0:05:36.63,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So this is clearly bad news for Reuther.
Dialogue: 0,0:05:36.63,0:05:40.02,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,It looks like it might be great news for Ford,
Dialogue: 0,0:05:40.02,0:05:42.33,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,but it's actually not. If you want to sell
Dialogue: 0,0:05:42.33,0:05:45.67,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,huge volumes of somewhat expensive goods to people,
Dialogue: 0,0:05:45.67,0:05:49.46,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,you really want a large, stable, prosperous middle class.
Dialogue: 0,0:05:49.46,0:05:51.68,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,We have had one of those in America
Dialogue: 0,0:05:51.68,0:05:54.32,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,for just about the entire postwar period.
Dialogue: 0,0:05:54.32,0:05:58.67,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,But the middle class is clearly under huge threat right now.
Dialogue: 0,0:05:58.67,0:06:00.08,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,We all know a lot of the statistics,
Dialogue: 0,0:06:00.08,0:06:02.44,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,but just to repeat one of them,
Dialogue: 0,0:06:02.44,0:06:05.21,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,median income in America has actually gone down
Dialogue: 0,0:06:05.21,0:06:06.90,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,over the past 15 years,
Dialogue: 0,0:06:06.90,0:06:08.61,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and we're in danger of getting trapped
Dialogue: 0,0:06:08.61,0:06:12.54,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,in some vicious cycle where inequality and polarization
Dialogue: 0,0:06:12.54,0:06:15.72,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,continue to go up over time.
Dialogue: 0,0:06:15.72,0:06:18.12,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,The societal challenges that come along
Dialogue: 0,0:06:18.12,0:06:20.69,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,with that kind of inequality deserve some attention.
Dialogue: 0,0:06:20.69,0:06:22.36,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,There are a set of societal challenges
Dialogue: 0,0:06:22.36,0:06:24.30,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that I'm actually not that worried about,
Dialogue: 0,0:06:24.30,0:06:26.66,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and they're captured by images like this.
Dialogue: 0,0:06:26.66,0:06:28.48,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,This is not the kind of societal problem
Dialogue: 0,0:06:28.48,0:06:30.94,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that I am concerned about.
Dialogue: 0,0:06:30.94,0:06:33.08,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,There is no shortage of dystopian visions
Dialogue: 0,0:06:33.08,0:06:36.57,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,about what happens when our machines become self-aware,
Dialogue: 0,0:06:36.57,0:06:39.74,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and they decide to rise up and coordinate attacks against us.
Dialogue: 0,0:06:39.74,0:06:41.49,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,I'm going to start worrying about those
Dialogue: 0,0:06:41.49,0:06:44.72,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,the day my computer becomes aware of my printer.
Dialogue: 0,0:06:44.72,0:06:48.35,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,(Laughter) (Applause)
Dialogue: 0,0:06:48.35,0:06:51.32,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So this is not the set of challenges we really need to worry about.
Dialogue: 0,0:06:51.32,0:06:54.11,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,To tell you the kinds of societal challenges
Dialogue: 0,0:06:54.11,0:06:56.32,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that are going to come up in the new machine age,
Dialogue: 0,0:06:56.32,0:07:00.03,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,I want to tell a story about two stereotypical American workers.
Dialogue: 0,0:07:00.03,0:07:01.80,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And to make them really stereotypical,
Dialogue: 0,0:07:01.80,0:07:03.95,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,let's make them both white guys.
Dialogue: 0,0:07:03.95,0:07:07.71,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And the first one is a college-educated
Dialogue: 0,0:07:07.71,0:07:10.85,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,professional, creative type, manager,
Dialogue: 0,0:07:10.85,0:07:13.60,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,engineer, doctor, lawyer, that kind of worker.
Dialogue: 0,0:07:13.60,0:07:16.02,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,We're going to call him "Ted."
Dialogue: 0,0:07:16.02,0:07:18.30,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,He's at the top of the American middle class.
Dialogue: 0,0:07:18.30,0:07:21.18,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,His counterpart is not college-educated
Dialogue: 0,0:07:21.18,0:07:24.24,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and works as a laborer, works as a clerk,
Dialogue: 0,0:07:24.24,0:07:27.56,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,does low-level white collar or blue collar work in the economy.
Dialogue: 0,0:07:27.56,0:07:29.96,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,We're going to call that guy "Bill."
Dialogue: 0,0:07:29.96,0:07:32.04,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And if you go back about 50 years,
Dialogue: 0,0:07:32.04,0:07:35.86,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Bill and Ted were leading remarkably similar lives.
Dialogue: 0,0:07:35.86,0:07:38.36,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,For example, in 1960 they were both very likely
Dialogue: 0,0:07:38.36,0:07:41.73,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,to have full-time jobs, working at least 40 hours a week.
Dialogue: 0,0:07:41.73,0:07:45.02,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,But as the social researcher Charles Murray has documented,
Dialogue: 0,0:07:45.02,0:07:47.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,as we started to automate the economy,
Dialogue: 0,0:07:47.99,0:07:52.14,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and 1960 is just about when computers started to be used by businesses,
Dialogue: 0,0:07:52.14,0:07:55.01,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,as we started to progressively inject technology
Dialogue: 0,0:07:55.01,0:07:57.75,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and automation and digital stuff into the economy,
Dialogue: 0,0:07:57.75,0:08:00.77,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,the fortunes of Bill and Ted diverged a lot.
Dialogue: 0,0:08:00.77,0:08:02.89,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Over this time frame, Ted has continued
Dialogue: 0,0:08:02.89,0:08:05.64,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,to hold a full-time job. Bill hasn't.
Dialogue: 0,0:08:05.64,0:08:09.91,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,In many cases, Bill has left the economy entirely,
Dialogue: 0,0:08:09.91,0:08:12.18,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and Ted very rarely has.
Dialogue: 0,0:08:12.18,0:08:15.44,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Over time, Ted's marriage has stayed quite happy.
Dialogue: 0,0:08:15.44,0:08:17.08,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Bill's hasn't.
Dialogue: 0,0:08:17.08,0:08:20.41,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And Ted's kids have grown up in a two-parent home,
Dialogue: 0,0:08:20.41,0:08:23.63,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,while Bill's absolutely have not over time.
Dialogue: 0,0:08:23.63,0:08:26.03,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Other ways that Bill is dropping out of society?
Dialogue: 0,0:08:26.03,0:08:29.72,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,He's decreased his voting in presidential elections,
Dialogue: 0,0:08:29.72,0:08:33.71,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and he's started to go to prison a lot more often.
Dialogue: 0,0:08:33.71,0:08:37.70,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So I cannot tell a happy story about these social trends,
Dialogue: 0,0:08:37.70,0:08:40.44,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and they don't show any signs of reversing themselves.
Dialogue: 0,0:08:40.44,0:08:43.42,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,They're also true no matter which ethnic group
Dialogue: 0,0:08:43.42,0:08:45.14,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,or demographic group we look at,
Dialogue: 0,0:08:45.14,0:08:47.21,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and they're actually getting so severe
Dialogue: 0,0:08:47.21,0:08:48.98,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that they're in danger of overwhelming
Dialogue: 0,0:08:48.98,0:08:52.63,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,even the amazing progress we made with the Civil Rights Movement.
Dialogue: 0,0:08:52.63,0:08:55.14,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And what my friends in Silicon Valley
Dialogue: 0,0:08:55.14,0:09:00.40,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and Cambridge are overlooking is that they're Ted.
Dialogue: 0,0:09:00.40,0:09:03.83,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,They're living these amazingly busy, productive lives,
Dialogue: 0,0:09:03.83,0:09:06.22,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and they've got all the benefits to show from that,
Dialogue: 0,0:09:06.22,0:09:08.66,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,while Bill is leading a very different life.
Dialogue: 0,0:09:08.66,0:09:10.80,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,They're actually both proof of how right Voltaire was
Dialogue: 0,0:09:10.80,0:09:13.05,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,when he talked about the benefits of work,
Dialogue: 0,0:09:13.05,0:09:16.63,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and the fact that it saves us from not one but three great evils.
Dialogue: 0,0:09:16.63,0:09:17.63,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,["Work saves a man from three great evils: boredom, vice and need." — Voltaire]
Dialogue: 0,0:09:17.63,0:09:20.96,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So with these challenges, what do we do about them?
Dialogue: 0,0:09:20.96,0:09:23.55,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,The economic playbook is surprisingly clear,
Dialogue: 0,0:09:23.55,0:09:26.69,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,surprisingly straightforward, in the short term especially.
Dialogue: 0,0:09:26.69,0:09:29.58,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,The robots are not going to take all of our jobs in the next year or two,
Dialogue: 0,0:09:29.58,0:09:34.05,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,so the classic Econ 101 playbook is going to work just fine:
Dialogue: 0,0:09:34.05,0:09:36.20,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Encourage entrepreneurship,
Dialogue: 0,0:09:36.20,0:09:38.39,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,double down on infrastructure,
Dialogue: 0,0:09:38.39,0:09:40.09,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and make sure we're turning out people
Dialogue: 0,0:09:40.09,0:09:43.69,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,from our educational system with the appropriate skills.
Dialogue: 0,0:09:43.69,0:09:46.97,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,But over the longer term, if we are moving into an economy
Dialogue: 0,0:09:46.97,0:09:49.62,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that's heavy on technology and light on labor,
Dialogue: 0,0:09:49.62,0:09:52.05,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and we are, then we have to consider
Dialogue: 0,0:09:52.05,0:09:53.83,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,some more radical interventions,
Dialogue: 0,0:09:53.83,0:09:57.03,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,for example, something like a guaranteed minimum income.
Dialogue: 0,0:09:57.03,0:10:00.74,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Now, that's probably making some folk in this room uncomfortable,
Dialogue: 0,0:10:00.74,0:10:04.60,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,because that idea is associated with the extreme left wing
Dialogue: 0,0:10:04.60,0:10:07.82,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and with fairly radical schemes for redistributing wealth.
Dialogue: 0,0:10:07.82,0:10:09.77,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,I did a little bit of research on this notion,
Dialogue: 0,0:10:09.77,0:10:12.23,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and it might calm some folk down to know that
Dialogue: 0,0:10:12.23,0:10:14.86,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,the idea of a net guaranteed minimum income
Dialogue: 0,0:10:14.86,0:10:18.02,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,has been championed by those frothing-at-the-mouth socialists
Dialogue: 0,0:10:18.04,0:10:23.51,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Friedrich Hayek, Richard Nixon and Milton Friedman.
Dialogue: 0,0:10:23.51,0:10:25.39,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And if you find yourself worried
Dialogue: 0,0:10:25.39,0:10:28.70,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that something like a guaranteed income
Dialogue: 0,0:10:28.70,0:10:30.97,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,is going to stifle our drive to succeed
Dialogue: 0,0:10:30.97,0:10:32.74,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and make us kind of complacent,
Dialogue: 0,0:10:32.74,0:10:35.52,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,you might be interested to know that social mobility,
Dialogue: 0,0:10:35.52,0:10:38.20,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,one of the things we really pride ourselves on in the United States,
Dialogue: 0,0:10:38.20,0:10:41.54,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,is now lower than it is in the northern European countries
Dialogue: 0,0:10:41.54,0:10:44.74,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that have these very generous social safety nets.
Dialogue: 0,0:10:44.74,0:10:47.53,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So the economic playbook is actually pretty straightforward.
Dialogue: 0,0:10:47.53,0:10:50.59,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,The societal one is a lot more challenging.
Dialogue: 0,0:10:50.59,0:10:52.74,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,I don't know what the playbook is
Dialogue: 0,0:10:52.74,0:10:56.56,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,for getting Bill to engage and stay engaged throughout life.
Dialogue: 0,0:10:56.56,0:10:59.07,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,I do know that education is a huge part of it.
Dialogue: 0,0:10:59.07,0:11:00.85,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,I witnessed this firsthand.
Dialogue: 0,0:11:00.85,0:11:04.60,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,I was a Montessori kid for the first few years of my education,
Dialogue: 0,0:11:04.60,0:11:06.13,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and what that education taught me
Dialogue: 0,0:11:06.13,0:11:08.22,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,is that the world is an interesting place
Dialogue: 0,0:11:08.22,0:11:10.86,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and my job is to go explore it.
Dialogue: 0,0:11:10.86,0:11:12.56,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,The school stopped in third grade,
Dialogue: 0,0:11:12.56,0:11:14.63,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,so then I entered the public school system,
Dialogue: 0,0:11:14.63,0:11:18.100,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and it felt like I had been sent to the Gulag.
Dialogue: 0,0:11:18.100,0:11:21.90,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,With the benefit of hindsight, I now know the job
Dialogue: 0,0:11:21.90,0:11:24.41,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,was to prepare me for life as a clerk or a laborer,
Dialogue: 0,0:11:24.41,0:11:26.74,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,but at the time it felt like the job was to kind of
Dialogue: 0,0:11:26.74,0:11:30.57,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,bore me into some submission with what was going on around me.
Dialogue: 0,0:11:30.57,0:11:31.92,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,We have to do better than this.
Dialogue: 0,0:11:31.92,0:11:35.59,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,We cannot keep turning out Bills.
Dialogue: 0,0:11:35.59,0:11:37.94,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So we see some green shoots that things are getting better.
Dialogue: 0,0:11:37.94,0:11:40.76,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,We see technology deeply impacting education
Dialogue: 0,0:11:40.76,0:11:43.29,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and engaging people, from our youngest learners
Dialogue: 0,0:11:43.29,0:11:45.05,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,up to our oldest ones.
Dialogue: 0,0:11:45.05,0:11:47.67,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,We see very prominent business voices telling us
Dialogue: 0,0:11:47.67,0:11:50.89,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,we need to rethink some of the things that we've been holding dear for a while.
Dialogue: 0,0:11:50.89,0:11:53.15,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And we see very serious and sustained
Dialogue: 0,0:11:53.15,0:11:55.95,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and data-driven efforts to understand
Dialogue: 0,0:11:55.95,0:11:59.50,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,how to intervene in some of the most troubled communities that we have.
Dialogue: 0,0:11:59.50,0:12:01.70,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So the green shoots are out there.
Dialogue: 0,0:12:01.70,0:12:03.14,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,I don't want to pretend for a minute
Dialogue: 0,0:12:03.14,0:12:05.08,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that what we have is going to be enough.
Dialogue: 0,0:12:05.08,0:12:07.22,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,We're facing very tough challenges.
Dialogue: 0,0:12:07.22,0:12:10.33,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,To give just one example, there are about five million Americans
Dialogue: 0,0:12:10.33,0:12:13.14,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,who have been unemployed for at least six months.
Dialogue: 0,0:12:13.14,0:12:14.48,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,We're not going to fix things for them
Dialogue: 0,0:12:14.48,0:12:16.93,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,by sending them back to Montessori.
Dialogue: 0,0:12:16.93,0:12:19.28,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And my biggest worry is that we're creating a world
Dialogue: 0,0:12:19.28,0:12:21.83,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,where we're going to have glittering technologies
Dialogue: 0,0:12:21.83,0:12:24.14,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,embedded in kind of a shabby society
Dialogue: 0,0:12:24.14,0:12:27.10,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and supported by an economy that generates inequality
Dialogue: 0,0:12:27.10,0:12:28.58,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,instead of opportunity.
Dialogue: 0,0:12:28.58,0:12:31.34,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,But I actually don't think that's what we're going to do.
Dialogue: 0,0:12:31.34,0:12:32.96,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,I think we're going to do something a lot better
Dialogue: 0,0:12:32.96,0:12:35.08,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,for one very straightforward reason:
Dialogue: 0,0:12:35.08,0:12:37.04,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,The facts are getting out there.
Dialogue: 0,0:12:37.04,0:12:39.08,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,The realities of this new machine age
Dialogue: 0,0:12:39.08,0:12:42.40,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and the change in the economy are becoming more widely known.
Dialogue: 0,0:12:42.40,0:12:45.25,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,If we wanted to accelerate that process, we could do things
Dialogue: 0,0:12:45.25,0:12:48.02,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,like have our best economists and policymakers
Dialogue: 0,0:12:48.02,0:12:50.44,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,play "Jeopardy!" against Watson.
Dialogue: 0,0:12:50.44,0:12:53.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,We could send Congress on an autonomous car road trip.
Dialogue: 0,0:12:53.99,0:12:55.64,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And if we do enough of these kinds of things,
Dialogue: 0,0:12:55.64,0:12:59.04,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,the awareness is going to sink in that things are going to be different.
Dialogue: 0,0:12:59.04,0:13:00.81,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And then we're off to the races,
Dialogue: 0,0:13:00.81,0:13:03.24,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,because I don't believe for a second
Dialogue: 0,0:13:03.24,0:13:06.21,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that we have forgotten how to solve tough challenges
Dialogue: 0,0:13:06.21,0:13:10.56,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,or that we have become too apathetic or hard-hearted to even try.
Dialogue: 0,0:13:10.56,0:13:12.96,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,I started my talk with quotes from wordsmiths
Dialogue: 0,0:13:12.96,0:13:15.77,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,who were separated by an ocean and a century.
Dialogue: 0,0:13:15.77,0:13:17.92,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Let me end it with words from politicians
Dialogue: 0,0:13:17.92,0:13:19.66,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,who were similarly distant.
Dialogue: 0,0:13:19.66,0:13:22.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Winston Churchill came to my home of MIT in 1949,
Dialogue: 0,0:13:22.99,0:13:25.14,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and he said, "If we are to bring the broad masses
Dialogue: 0,0:13:25.14,0:13:28.85,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,of the people in every land to the table of abundance,
Dialogue: 0,0:13:28.85,0:13:31.88,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,it can only be by the tireless improvement
Dialogue: 0,0:13:31.88,0:13:34.85,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,of all of our means of technical production."
Dialogue: 0,0:13:34.85,0:13:37.47,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Abraham Lincoln realized there was one other ingredient.
Dialogue: 0,0:13:37.47,0:13:40.37,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,He said, "I am a firm believer in the people.
Dialogue: 0,0:13:40.37,0:13:42.70,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,If given the truth, they can be depended upon
Dialogue: 0,0:13:42.70,0:13:45.07,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,to meet any national crisis.
Dialogue: 0,0:13:45.07,0:13:47.85,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,The great point is to give them the plain facts."
Dialogue: 0,0:13:47.85,0:13:50.96,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So the optimistic note, great point that I want to leave you with
Dialogue: 0,0:13:50.96,0:13:54.11,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,is that the plain facts of the machine age are becoming clear,
Dialogue: 0,0:13:54.11,0:13:56.56,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and I have every confidence that we're going to use them
Dialogue: 0,0:13:56.56,0:13:59.48,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,to chart a good course into the challenging,
Dialogue: 0,0:13:59.48,0:14:02.01,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,abundant economy that we're creating.
Dialogue: 0,0:14:02.01,0:14:03.70,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Thank you very much.
Dialogue: 0,0:14:03.70,0:14:08.08,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,(Applause)