[Script Info]
Title: 
[Events]
Format: Layer, Start, End, Style, Name, MarginL, MarginR, MarginV, Effect, Text
Dialogue: 0,0:00:01.72,0:00:04.64,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Hi. I'm here to talk about congestion,
Dialogue: 0,0:00:04.64,0:00:05.100,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,namely road congestion.
Dialogue: 0,0:00:05.100,0:00:08.26,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Road congestion is a pervasive phenomenon.
Dialogue: 0,0:00:08.26,0:00:11.12,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,It exists in basically all of the cities all around the world,
Dialogue: 0,0:00:11.12,0:00:13.06,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,which is a little bit surprising when you think about it.
Dialogue: 0,0:00:13.06,0:00:16.03,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,I mean, think about how different cities are, actually.
Dialogue: 0,0:00:16.03,0:00:17.79,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,I mean, you have the typical European cities,
Dialogue: 0,0:00:17.79,0:00:20.78,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,with a dense urban core, good public transportation
Dialogue: 0,0:00:20.78,0:00:23.24,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,mostly, not a lot of road capacity.
Dialogue: 0,0:00:23.24,0:00:25.69,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,But then, on the other hand, you have the American cities.
Dialogue: 0,0:00:25.69,0:00:28.48,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,It's moving by itself, okay.
Dialogue: 0,0:00:28.48,0:00:31.48,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Anyway, the American cities:
Dialogue: 0,0:00:31.48,0:00:34.41,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,lots of roads dispersed over large areas,
Dialogue: 0,0:00:34.41,0:00:35.87,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,almost no public transportation.
Dialogue: 0,0:00:35.87,0:00:38.08,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And then you have the emerging world cities,
Dialogue: 0,0:00:38.08,0:00:39.61,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,with a mixed variety of vehicles,
Dialogue: 0,0:00:39.61,0:00:42.15,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,mixed land-use patterns, also rather dispersed
Dialogue: 0,0:00:42.15,0:00:44.75,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,but often with a very dense urban core.
Dialogue: 0,0:00:44.75,0:00:47.15,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And traffic planners all around the world have tried
Dialogue: 0,0:00:47.15,0:00:50.80,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,lots of different measures: dense cities or dispersed cities,
Dialogue: 0,0:00:50.80,0:00:53.35,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,lots of roads or lots of public transport
Dialogue: 0,0:00:53.35,0:00:56.14,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,or lots of bike lanes or more information,
Dialogue: 0,0:00:56.14,0:00:59.93,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,or lots of different things, but nothing seems to work.
Dialogue: 0,0:00:59.93,0:01:02.94,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,But all of these attempts have one thing in common.
Dialogue: 0,0:01:02.94,0:01:05.29,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,They're basically attempts at figuring out
Dialogue: 0,0:01:05.29,0:01:08.62,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,what people should do instead of rush hour car driving.
Dialogue: 0,0:01:08.62,0:01:11.73,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,They're essentially, to a point, attempts at planning
Dialogue: 0,0:01:11.73,0:01:14.93,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,what other people should do, planning their life for them.
Dialogue: 0,0:01:14.93,0:01:17.38,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Now, planning a complex social system
Dialogue: 0,0:01:17.38,0:01:20.46,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,is a very hard thing to do, and let me tell you a story.
Dialogue: 0,0:01:20.46,0:01:23.18,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Back in 1989, when the Berlin Wall fell,
Dialogue: 0,0:01:23.18,0:01:25.80,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,an urban planner in London got a phone call
Dialogue: 0,0:01:25.80,0:01:28.36,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,from a colleague in Moscow saying, basically,
Dialogue: 0,0:01:28.36,0:01:30.87,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,"Hi, this is Vladimir. I'd like to know,
Dialogue: 0,0:01:30.87,0:01:33.90,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,who's in charge of London's bread supply?"
Dialogue: 0,0:01:33.90,0:01:35.55,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And the urban planner in London goes,
Dialogue: 0,0:01:35.55,0:01:37.52,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,"What do you mean, who's in charge of London's —
Dialogue: 0,0:01:37.52,0:01:38.79,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,I mean, no one is in charge."
Dialogue: 0,0:01:38.79,0:01:40.67,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,"Oh, but surely someone must be in charge.
Dialogue: 0,0:01:40.67,0:01:44.33,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,I mean, it's a very complicated system. Someone must control all of this."
Dialogue: 0,0:01:44.33,0:01:47.43,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,"No. No. No one is in charge.
Dialogue: 0,0:01:47.43,0:01:50.03,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,I mean, it basically -- I haven't really thought of it.
Dialogue: 0,0:01:50.03,0:01:52.62,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,It basically organizes itself."
Dialogue: 0,0:01:52.62,0:01:55.20,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,It organizes itself.
Dialogue: 0,0:01:55.20,0:01:58.04,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,That's an example of a complex social system
Dialogue: 0,0:01:58.04,0:02:00.77,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,which has the ability of self-organizing,
Dialogue: 0,0:02:00.77,0:02:03.36,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and this is a very deep insight.
Dialogue: 0,0:02:03.36,0:02:06.67,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,When you try to solve really complex social problems,
Dialogue: 0,0:02:06.67,0:02:08.39,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,the right thing to do is most of the time
Dialogue: 0,0:02:08.39,0:02:09.98,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,to create the incentives.
Dialogue: 0,0:02:09.98,0:02:11.92,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,You don't plan the details,
Dialogue: 0,0:02:11.92,0:02:14.54,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and people will figure out what to do,
Dialogue: 0,0:02:14.54,0:02:16.40,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,how to adapt to this new framework.
Dialogue: 0,0:02:16.40,0:02:19.89,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And let's now look at how we can use this insight
Dialogue: 0,0:02:19.89,0:02:21.53,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,to combat road congestion.
Dialogue: 0,0:02:21.53,0:02:23.76,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,This is a map of Stockholm, my hometown.
Dialogue: 0,0:02:23.76,0:02:27.40,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Now, Stockholm is a medium-sized city, roughly two million people,
Dialogue: 0,0:02:27.40,0:02:30.19,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,but Stockholm also has lots of water and lots of water
Dialogue: 0,0:02:30.19,0:02:33.47,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,means lots of bridges -- narrow bridges, old bridges --
Dialogue: 0,0:02:33.47,0:02:36.50,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,which means lots of road congestion.
Dialogue: 0,0:02:36.50,0:02:40.14,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And these red dots show the most congested parts,
Dialogue: 0,0:02:40.14,0:02:42.72,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,which are the bridges that lead into the inner city.
Dialogue: 0,0:02:42.72,0:02:45.25,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And then someone came up with the idea that,
Dialogue: 0,0:02:45.25,0:02:47.08,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,apart from good public transport,
Dialogue: 0,0:02:47.08,0:02:49.68,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,apart from spending money on roads,
Dialogue: 0,0:02:49.68,0:02:53.90,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,let's try to charge drivers one or two euros at these bottlenecks.
Dialogue: 0,0:02:53.90,0:02:56.82,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Now, one or two euros, that isn't really a lot of money,
Dialogue: 0,0:02:56.82,0:02:59.48,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,I mean compared to parking charges and running costs, etc.,
Dialogue: 0,0:02:59.48,0:03:02.20,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,so you would probably expect that car drivers
Dialogue: 0,0:03:02.20,0:03:04.64,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,wouldn't really react to this fairly small charge.
Dialogue: 0,0:03:04.64,0:03:05.94,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,You would be wrong.
Dialogue: 0,0:03:05.94,0:03:09.96,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,One or two euros was enough to make 20 percent of cars
Dialogue: 0,0:03:09.96,0:03:12.35,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,disappear from rush hours.
Dialogue: 0,0:03:12.35,0:03:15.90,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Now, 20 percent, well, that's a fairly huge figure, you might think,
Dialogue: 0,0:03:15.90,0:03:18.11,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,but you've still got 80 percent left of the problem, right?
Dialogue: 0,0:03:18.11,0:03:19.98,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Because you still have 80 percent of the traffic.
Dialogue: 0,0:03:19.98,0:03:23.24,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Now, that's also wrong, because traffic happens to be
Dialogue: 0,0:03:23.24,0:03:25.94,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,a nonlinear phenomenon, meaning that
Dialogue: 0,0:03:25.94,0:03:29.08,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,once you reach above a certain capacity threshold
Dialogue: 0,0:03:29.08,0:03:32.24,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,then congestion starts to increase really, really rapidly.
Dialogue: 0,0:03:32.24,0:03:34.70,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,But fortunately, it also works the other way around.
Dialogue: 0,0:03:34.70,0:03:38.04,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,If you can reduce traffic even somewhat, then congestion
Dialogue: 0,0:03:38.04,0:03:41.66,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,will go down much faster than you might think.
Dialogue: 0,0:03:41.66,0:03:44.56,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Now, congestion charges were introduced in Stockholm
Dialogue: 0,0:03:44.56,0:03:49.16,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,on January 3, 2006, and the first picture here is a picture
Dialogue: 0,0:03:49.16,0:03:53.14,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,of Stockholm, one of the typical streets, January 2.
Dialogue: 0,0:03:53.14,0:03:56.96,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,The first day with the congestion charges looked like this.
Dialogue: 0,0:03:56.96,0:03:59.88,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,This is what happens when you take away
Dialogue: 0,0:03:59.88,0:04:01.94,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,20 percent of the cars from the streets.
Dialogue: 0,0:04:01.94,0:04:04.65,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,You really reduce congestion quite substantially.
Dialogue: 0,0:04:04.65,0:04:08.31,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,But, well, as I said, I mean, car drivers adapt, right?
Dialogue: 0,0:04:08.31,0:04:10.81,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So after a while they would all come back because they
Dialogue: 0,0:04:10.81,0:04:12.76,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,have sort of gotten used to charges.
Dialogue: 0,0:04:12.76,0:04:16.43,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Wrong again. It's now six and a half years ago
Dialogue: 0,0:04:16.43,0:04:18.42,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,since the congestion charges were introduced in Stockholm,
Dialogue: 0,0:04:18.42,0:04:22.41,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and we basically have the same low traffic levels still.
Dialogue: 0,0:04:22.41,0:04:24.68,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,But you see, there's an interesting gap here in the time series
Dialogue: 0,0:04:24.68,0:04:26.14,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,in 2007.
Dialogue: 0,0:04:26.14,0:04:28.53,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Well, the thing is that, the congestion charges,
Dialogue: 0,0:04:28.53,0:04:31.62,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,they were introduced first as a trial, so they were introduced
Dialogue: 0,0:04:31.62,0:04:35.59,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,in January and then abolished again at the end of July,
Dialogue: 0,0:04:35.59,0:04:38.19,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,followed by a referendum, and then they were reintroduced
Dialogue: 0,0:04:38.19,0:04:42.39,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,again in 2007, which of course was a wonderful scientific opportunity.
Dialogue: 0,0:04:42.39,0:04:46.52,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,I mean, this was a really fun experiment to start with,
Dialogue: 0,0:04:46.52,0:04:48.31,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and we actually got to do it twice.
Dialogue: 0,0:04:48.31,0:04:50.42,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And personally, I would like to do this every once a year or so,
Dialogue: 0,0:04:50.42,0:04:51.90,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,but they won't let me do that.
Dialogue: 0,0:04:51.90,0:04:54.09,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,But it was fun anyway.
Dialogue: 0,0:04:54.09,0:04:57.47,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So, we followed up. What happened?
Dialogue: 0,0:04:57.47,0:05:01.34,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,This is the last day with the congestion charges, July 31,
Dialogue: 0,0:05:01.34,0:05:03.12,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and you see the same street but now it's summer,
Dialogue: 0,0:05:03.12,0:05:04.86,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and summer in Stockholm is a very nice
Dialogue: 0,0:05:04.86,0:05:07.11,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and light time of the year,
Dialogue: 0,0:05:07.11,0:05:09.95,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and the first day without the congestion charges
Dialogue: 0,0:05:09.95,0:05:11.32,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,looked like this.
Dialogue: 0,0:05:11.32,0:05:13.98,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,All the cars were back again, and you even have to admire
Dialogue: 0,0:05:13.98,0:05:16.89,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,the car drivers. They adapt so extremely quickly.
Dialogue: 0,0:05:16.89,0:05:19.14,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,The first day they all came back.
Dialogue: 0,0:05:19.14,0:05:24.49,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And this effect hanged on. So 2007 figures looked like this.
Dialogue: 0,0:05:24.49,0:05:26.82,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Now these traffic figures are really exciting
Dialogue: 0,0:05:26.82,0:05:29.47,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and a little bit surprising and very useful to know,
Dialogue: 0,0:05:29.47,0:05:32.23,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,but I would say that the most surprising slide here
Dialogue: 0,0:05:32.23,0:05:36.26,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,I'm going to show you today is not this one. It's this one.
Dialogue: 0,0:05:36.26,0:05:39.59,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,This shows public support for congestion pricing of Stockholm,
Dialogue: 0,0:05:39.59,0:05:42.26,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and you see that when congestion pricing were introduced
Dialogue: 0,0:05:42.26,0:05:46.58,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,in the beginning of Spring 2006, people were fiercely against it.
Dialogue: 0,0:05:46.58,0:05:49.61,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Seventy percent of the population didn't want this.
Dialogue: 0,0:05:49.61,0:05:51.26,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,But what happened when the congestion charges
Dialogue: 0,0:05:51.26,0:05:54.72,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,were there is not what you would expect, that people hated it more and more.
Dialogue: 0,0:05:54.72,0:05:57.87,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,No, on the contrary, they changed, up to a point
Dialogue: 0,0:05:57.87,0:06:01.57,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,where we now have 70 percent support for keeping the charges,
Dialogue: 0,0:06:01.57,0:06:03.41,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,meaning that -- I mean, let me repeat that:
Dialogue: 0,0:06:03.41,0:06:06.22,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,70 percent of the population in Stockholm
Dialogue: 0,0:06:06.22,0:06:10.21,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,want to keep a price for something that used to be free.
Dialogue: 0,0:06:10.21,0:06:13.84,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Okay. So why can that be? Why is that?
Dialogue: 0,0:06:13.84,0:06:16.84,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Well, think about it this way. Who changed?
Dialogue: 0,0:06:16.84,0:06:19.46,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,I mean, the 20 percent of the car drivers that disappeared,
Dialogue: 0,0:06:19.46,0:06:21.41,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,surely they must be discontent in a way.
Dialogue: 0,0:06:21.41,0:06:23.74,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And where did they go? If we can understand this,
Dialogue: 0,0:06:23.74,0:06:27.87,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,then maybe we can figure out how people can be so happy with this.
Dialogue: 0,0:06:27.87,0:06:30.27,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Well, so we did this huge interview survey
Dialogue: 0,0:06:30.27,0:06:32.11,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,with lots of travel services, and tried to figure out
Dialogue: 0,0:06:32.11,0:06:33.86,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,who changed, and where did they go?
Dialogue: 0,0:06:33.86,0:06:38.28,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And it turned out that they don't know themselves. (Laughter)
Dialogue: 0,0:06:38.28,0:06:43.13,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,For some reason, the car drivers are --
Dialogue: 0,0:06:43.13,0:06:46.62,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,they are confident they actually drive the same way that they used to do.
Dialogue: 0,0:06:46.62,0:06:48.88,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And why is that? It's because that travel patterns
Dialogue: 0,0:06:48.88,0:06:51.28,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,are much less stable than you might think.
Dialogue: 0,0:06:51.28,0:06:54.11,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Each day, people make new decisions, and people change
Dialogue: 0,0:06:54.11,0:06:56.53,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and the world changes around them, and each day
Dialogue: 0,0:06:56.53,0:06:59.79,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,all of these decisions are sort of nudged ever so slightly
Dialogue: 0,0:06:59.79,0:07:01.75,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,away from rush hour car driving
Dialogue: 0,0:07:01.75,0:07:04.34,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,in a way that people don't even notice.
Dialogue: 0,0:07:04.34,0:07:06.38,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,They're not even aware of this themselves.
Dialogue: 0,0:07:06.38,0:07:09.18,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And the other question, who changed their mind?
Dialogue: 0,0:07:09.18,0:07:11.15,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Who changed their opinion, and why?
Dialogue: 0,0:07:11.15,0:07:13.68,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So we did another interview survey, tried to figure out
Dialogue: 0,0:07:13.68,0:07:18.05,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,why people changed their mind, and what type of group changed their minds?
Dialogue: 0,0:07:18.05,0:07:20.94,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And after analyzing the answers, it turned out that
Dialogue: 0,0:07:20.94,0:07:24.83,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,more than half of them believe that they haven't changed their minds.
Dialogue: 0,0:07:24.83,0:07:27.12,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,They're actually confident that they have
Dialogue: 0,0:07:27.12,0:07:29.80,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,liked congestion pricing all along.
Dialogue: 0,0:07:29.80,0:07:31.52,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Which means that we are now in a position
Dialogue: 0,0:07:31.52,0:07:34.52,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,where we have reduced traffic across this toll cordon
Dialogue: 0,0:07:34.52,0:07:37.73,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,with 20 percent, and reduced congestion by enormous numbers,
Dialogue: 0,0:07:37.73,0:07:41.28,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and people aren't even aware that they have changed,
Dialogue: 0,0:07:41.28,0:07:45.19,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and they honestly believe that they have liked this all along.
Dialogue: 0,0:07:45.19,0:07:48.66,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,This is the power of nudges when trying to solve
Dialogue: 0,0:07:48.66,0:07:51.29,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,complex social problems, and when you do that,
Dialogue: 0,0:07:51.29,0:07:54.92,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,you shouldn't try to tell people how to adapt.
Dialogue: 0,0:07:54.92,0:07:57.11,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,You should just nudge them in the right direction.
Dialogue: 0,0:07:57.11,0:07:58.83,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And if you do it right,
Dialogue: 0,0:07:58.83,0:08:00.88,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,people will actually embrace the change,
Dialogue: 0,0:08:00.88,0:08:03.94,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and if you do it right, people will actually even like it.
Dialogue: 0,0:08:03.94,0:08:07.27,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Thank you. (Applause)