1 00:00:00,000 --> 00:00:02,000 Unless we do something to prevent it, 2 00:00:02,000 --> 00:00:05,000 over the next 40 years we’re facing an epidemic 3 00:00:05,000 --> 00:00:08,000 of neurologic diseases on a global scale. 4 00:00:08,000 --> 00:00:12,000 A cheery thought. 5 00:00:12,000 --> 00:00:15,000 On this map, every country that’s colored blue 6 00:00:15,000 --> 00:00:19,000 has more than 20 percent of its population over the age of 65. 7 00:00:19,000 --> 00:00:21,000 This is the world we live in. 8 00:00:21,000 --> 00:00:24,000 And this is the world your children will live in. 9 00:00:25,000 --> 00:00:29,000 For 12,000 years, the distribution of ages in the human population 10 00:00:29,000 --> 00:00:32,000 has looked like a pyramid, with the oldest on top. 11 00:00:32,000 --> 00:00:34,000 It’s already flattening out. 12 00:00:34,000 --> 00:00:38,000 By 2050, it’s going to be a column and will start to invert. 13 00:00:38,000 --> 00:00:41,000 This is why it’s happening. 14 00:00:41,000 --> 00:00:44,000 The average lifespan’s more than doubled since 1840, 15 00:00:44,000 --> 00:00:49,000 and it’s increasing currently at the rate of about five hours every day. 16 00:00:49,000 --> 00:00:52,000 And this is why that’s not entirely a good thing: 17 00:00:52,000 --> 00:00:56,000 because over the age of 65, your risk of getting Alzheimer’s 18 00:00:56,000 --> 00:01:00,000 or Parkinson’s disease will increase exponentially. 19 00:01:00,000 --> 00:01:04,000 By 2050, there’ll be about 32 million people in the United States 20 00:01:04,000 --> 00:01:07,000 over the age of 80, and unless we do something about it, 21 00:01:07,000 --> 00:01:09,000 half of them will have Alzheimer’s disease 22 00:01:09,000 --> 00:01:12,000 and three million more will have Parkinson’s disease. 23 00:01:12,000 --> 00:01:15,000 Right now, those and other neurologic diseases -- 24 00:01:15,000 --> 00:01:18,000 for which we have no cure or prevention -- 25 00:01:18,000 --> 00:01:20,000 cost about a third of a trillion dollars a year. 26 00:01:20,000 --> 00:01:24,000 It will be well over a trillion dollars by 2050. 27 00:01:24,000 --> 00:01:26,000 Alzheimer’s disease starts when a protein 28 00:01:26,000 --> 00:01:28,000 that should be folded up properly 29 00:01:28,000 --> 00:01:32,000 misfolds into a kind of demented origami. 30 00:01:32,000 --> 00:01:35,000 So one approach we’re taking is to try to design drugs 31 00:01:35,000 --> 00:01:38,000 that function like molecular Scotch tape, 32 00:01:38,000 --> 00:01:41,000 to hold the protein into its proper shape. 33 00:01:41,000 --> 00:01:43,000 That would keep it from forming the tangles 34 00:01:43,000 --> 00:01:47,000 that seem to kill large sections of the brain when they do. 35 00:01:47,000 --> 00:01:49,000 Interestingly enough, other neurologic diseases 36 00:01:49,000 --> 00:01:52,000 which affect very different parts of the brain 37 00:01:52,000 --> 00:01:55,000 also show tangles of misfolded protein, 38 00:01:55,000 --> 00:01:58,000 which suggests that the approach might be a general one, 39 00:01:58,000 --> 00:02:00,000 and might be used to cure many neurologic diseases, 40 00:02:00,000 --> 00:02:02,000 not just Alzheimer’s disease. 41 00:02:02,000 --> 00:02:05,000 There’s also a fascinating connection to cancer here, 42 00:02:05,000 --> 00:02:07,000 because people with neurologic diseases 43 00:02:07,000 --> 00:02:10,000 have a very low incidence of most cancers. 44 00:02:10,000 --> 00:02:13,000 And this is a connection that most people aren’t pursuing right now, 45 00:02:13,000 --> 00:02:16,000 but which we’re fascinated by. 46 00:02:16,000 --> 00:02:19,000 Most of the important and all of the creative work in this area 47 00:02:19,000 --> 00:02:22,000 is being funded by private philanthropies. 48 00:02:22,000 --> 00:02:25,000 And there’s tremendous scope for additional private help here, 49 00:02:25,000 --> 00:02:28,000 because the government has dropped the ball on much of this, I’m afraid. 50 00:02:28,000 --> 00:02:32,000 In the meantime, while we’re waiting for all these things to happen, 51 00:02:32,000 --> 00:02:34,000 here’s what you can do for yourself. 52 00:02:34,000 --> 00:02:36,000 If you want to lower your risk of Parkinson’s disease, 53 00:02:36,000 --> 00:02:41,000 caffeine is protective to some extent; nobody knows why. 54 00:02:41,000 --> 00:02:44,000 Head injuries are bad for you. They lead to Parkinson’s disease. 55 00:02:44,000 --> 00:02:48,000 And the Avian Flu is also not a good idea. 56 00:02:49,000 --> 00:02:52,000 As far as protecting yourself against Alzheimer’s disease, 57 00:02:52,000 --> 00:02:55,000 well, it turns out that fish oil has the effect 58 00:02:55,000 --> 00:02:58,000 of reducing your risk for Alzheimer’s disease. 59 00:02:58,000 --> 00:03:00,000 You should also keep your blood pressure down, 60 00:03:00,000 --> 00:03:02,000 because chronic high blood pressure 61 00:03:02,000 --> 00:03:04,000 is the biggest single risk factor for Alzheimer’s disease. 62 00:03:04,000 --> 00:03:07,000 It’s also the biggest risk factor for glaucoma, 63 00:03:07,000 --> 00:03:10,000 which is just Alzheimer’s disease of the eye. 64 00:03:10,000 --> 00:03:12,000 And of course, when it comes to cognitive effects, 65 00:03:12,000 --> 00:03:14,000 "use it or lose it" applies, 66 00:03:14,000 --> 00:03:16,000 so you want to stay mentally stimulated. 67 00:03:16,000 --> 00:03:18,000 But hey, you’re listening to me. 68 00:03:18,000 --> 00:03:20,000 So you’ve got that covered. 69 00:03:20,000 --> 00:03:24,000 And one final thing. Wish people like me luck, okay? 70 00:03:24,000 --> 00:03:26,000 Because the clock is ticking for all of us. 71 00:03:26,000 --> 00:03:29,000 Thank you.