1 00:00:01,236 --> 00:00:04,675 Let's consider the topic of safe-haven currencies. 2 00:00:05,917 --> 00:00:09,416 A safe-haven currency is one which does well in bad times. 3 00:00:09,450 --> 00:00:11,921 So when the global economy becomes riskier 4 00:00:11,921 --> 00:00:13,436 or something bad happens, 5 00:00:13,436 --> 00:00:15,897 some currencies tend to appreciate 6 00:00:15,897 --> 00:00:19,051 because they are considered safe havens for investors. 7 00:00:20,683 --> 00:00:23,138 The classic example here is the US dollar. 8 00:00:23,340 --> 00:00:27,386 During the American financial crisis of 2008-2009, 9 00:00:27,386 --> 00:00:30,751 a lot of really bad things happened to the United States economy. 10 00:00:30,815 --> 00:00:33,306 Yet, oddly, at these exact same times, 11 00:00:33,306 --> 00:00:37,083 quite often the value of the US dollar would rise on world markets. 12 00:00:37,420 --> 00:00:41,416 This may seem counter-intuitive, but it's reflecting a safe-haven effect. 13 00:00:41,622 --> 00:00:43,851 People figure that if things get really bad, 14 00:00:43,851 --> 00:00:47,491 well, a lot of different assets and asset classes will be in trouble, 15 00:00:47,491 --> 00:00:48,707 and they ask themselves, 16 00:00:48,707 --> 00:00:51,693 "Well, which is actually the safest of those remaining?" 17 00:00:51,693 --> 00:00:55,038 And the US dollar, actually, in the minds of investors, 18 00:00:55,038 --> 00:00:56,763 does pretty well on that score. 19 00:00:57,851 --> 00:01:02,369 Another safe-haven currency, very frequently, is the Japanese yen. 20 00:01:03,786 --> 00:01:06,547 And another safe-haven currency is the Swiss franc. 21 00:01:06,659 --> 00:01:11,696 Like Japan, Switzerland has a reputation for being a very sound and stable place. 22 00:01:11,696 --> 00:01:14,416 It's certainly perceived as such by investors. 23 00:01:14,585 --> 00:01:16,527 So during bad or risky times, 24 00:01:16,527 --> 00:01:19,475 there's often an inflow of money into Switzerland 25 00:01:19,475 --> 00:01:22,069 and an appreciation of the Swiss franc. 26 00:01:23,243 --> 00:01:26,671 What are the factors behind what might be a safe-haven currency? 27 00:01:26,770 --> 00:01:28,543 Well, there's some disagreement here, 28 00:01:28,543 --> 00:01:30,969 but overall some of those factors would include 29 00:01:30,969 --> 00:01:34,936 the long term stability of purchasing power in that currency, 30 00:01:34,936 --> 00:01:37,988 the general geopolitical outlook for that country, 31 00:01:38,118 --> 00:01:41,589 its monetary and fiscal policies and how good those are, 32 00:01:41,879 --> 00:01:43,923 the size and safety of the country; 33 00:01:43,923 --> 00:01:46,595 that's one factor favoring the United States; 34 00:01:46,745 --> 00:01:50,064 whether that country has a significant role in global trade 35 00:01:50,354 --> 00:01:53,447 including the use of that currency as a reserve currency; 36 00:01:53,447 --> 00:01:56,381 that would probably be robust even in bad times. 37 00:01:56,715 --> 00:02:00,738 Quite important is the liquidity of markets for that currency 38 00:02:00,738 --> 00:02:03,717 and, also, the net asset position of the country; 39 00:02:03,717 --> 00:02:07,111 simply, how much wealth has that country accumulated 40 00:02:07,211 --> 00:02:09,783 relative to how much it owes other parties. 41 00:02:11,547 --> 00:02:14,128 There are some other potential safe-haven current, 42 00:02:14,128 --> 00:02:15,984 sometimes, but not always cited. 43 00:02:16,146 --> 00:02:19,402 Those would include the euro, sometimes, the Korean won, 44 00:02:19,402 --> 00:02:21,207 or even the Norwegian crown. 45 00:02:21,207 --> 00:02:23,125 If you go back to the previous list, 46 00:02:23,125 --> 00:02:28,144 you'll find that these are not nearly as safe haven, at least as of 2013, 47 00:02:28,144 --> 00:02:32,284 as the US dollar, the Japanese yen, and the Swiss franc. 48 00:02:33,797 --> 00:02:37,067 It might sound like a good thing to be holding a safe-haven currency, 49 00:02:37,067 --> 00:02:40,388 well, maybe it is because, in bad times, it gives you more protection; 50 00:02:40,388 --> 00:02:41,908 that's a kind of insurance. 51 00:02:41,908 --> 00:02:45,448 But, keep in mind, there's always trade-offs in economic activity. 52 00:02:45,650 --> 00:02:49,238 So a currency which is giving you more insurance protection upfront 53 00:02:49,238 --> 00:02:53,117 is probably paying you, all other things equal, lower returns. 54 00:02:53,451 --> 00:02:54,940 So, just keep this in mind, 55 00:02:54,940 --> 00:02:57,482 there is a trade-off between risk and return 56 00:02:57,482 --> 00:03:01,651 when considering the costs and benefits of holding safe-haven currencies. 57 00:03:02,716 --> 00:03:04,944 For more on this topic, the best place to start 58 00:03:04,944 --> 00:03:08,025 is simply to put "safe-haven currency" into Google 59 00:03:08,025 --> 00:03:11,067 and also into scholar.google.com.