WEBVTT 00:00:00.818 --> 00:00:02.328 Once upon a time 00:00:02.328 --> 00:00:08.979 we lived in an economy of financial growth and prosperity. 00:00:08.979 --> 00:00:12.674 This was called the Great Moderation, 00:00:12.674 --> 00:00:16.080 the misguided belief by most economists, 00:00:16.080 --> 00:00:19.383 policymakers and central banks 00:00:19.383 --> 00:00:22.714 that we have transformed into a new world 00:00:22.714 --> 00:00:26.571 of never-ending growth and prosperity. 00:00:26.571 --> 00:00:31.314 This was seen by robust and steady GDP growth, 00:00:31.314 --> 00:00:34.314 by low and controlled inflation, 00:00:34.314 --> 00:00:36.553 by low unemployment, 00:00:36.553 --> 00:00:40.459 and controlled and low financial volatility. NOTE Paragraph 00:00:40.459 --> 00:00:47.091 But the Great Recession in 2007 and 2008, 00:00:47.091 --> 00:00:50.570 the great crash, broke this illusion. 00:00:50.570 --> 00:00:55.594 A few hundred billion dollars of losses in the financial sector 00:00:55.594 --> 00:00:59.674 cascaded into five trillion dollars 00:00:59.674 --> 00:01:01.558 of losses in world GDP 00:01:01.558 --> 00:01:05.361 and almost $30 trillion losses 00:01:05.361 --> 00:01:09.306 in the global stock market. NOTE Paragraph 00:01:09.306 --> 00:01:14.501 So the understanding of this Great Recession 00:01:14.501 --> 00:01:19.862 was that this was completely surprising, 00:01:19.862 --> 00:01:21.208 this came out of the blue, 00:01:21.208 --> 00:01:24.125 this was like the wrath of the gods. 00:01:24.125 --> 00:01:25.916 There was no responsibility. 00:01:25.916 --> 00:01:27.839 So, as a reflection of this, 00:01:27.839 --> 00:01:31.448 we started the Financial Crisis Observatory. 00:01:31.448 --> 00:01:35.386 We had the goal to diagnose in real time 00:01:35.386 --> 00:01:37.757 financial bubbles 00:01:37.757 --> 00:01:43.614 and identify in advance their critical time. NOTE Paragraph 00:01:43.614 --> 00:01:46.972 What is the underpinning, scientifically, of this financial observatory? 00:01:46.972 --> 00:01:51.598 We developed a theory called "dragon-kings." 00:01:51.598 --> 00:01:54.804 Dragon-kings represent extreme events 00:01:54.804 --> 00:01:58.076 which are of a class of their own. 00:01:58.076 --> 00:02:00.919 They are special. They are outliers. 00:02:00.919 --> 00:02:04.359 They are generated by specific mechanisms 00:02:04.359 --> 00:02:07.245 that may make them predictable, 00:02:07.245 --> 00:02:10.143 perhaps controllable. NOTE Paragraph 00:02:10.143 --> 00:02:13.970 Consider the financial price time series, 00:02:13.970 --> 00:02:16.143 a given stock, your perfect stock, 00:02:16.143 --> 00:02:18.495 or a global index. 00:02:18.495 --> 00:02:20.549 You have these up-and-downs. 00:02:20.549 --> 00:02:24.111 A very good measure of the risk of this financial market 00:02:24.111 --> 00:02:26.533 is the peaks-to-valleys that represent 00:02:26.533 --> 00:02:28.829 a worst case scenario 00:02:28.829 --> 00:02:32.502 when you bought at the top and sold at the bottom. 00:02:32.502 --> 00:02:36.251 You can look at the statistics, the frequency of the occurrence 00:02:36.251 --> 00:02:38.606 of peak-to-valleys of different sizes, 00:02:38.606 --> 00:02:41.157 which is represented in this graph. 00:02:41.157 --> 00:02:44.189 Now, interestingly, 99 percent 00:02:44.189 --> 00:02:47.982 of the peak-to-valleys of different amplitudes 00:02:47.982 --> 00:02:51.442 can be represented by a universal power law 00:02:51.442 --> 00:02:54.893 represented by this red line here. 00:02:54.893 --> 00:02:59.039 More interestingly, there are outliers, there are exceptions 00:02:59.039 --> 00:03:00.942 which are above this red line, 00:03:00.942 --> 00:03:04.701 occur 100 times more frequently, at least, 00:03:04.701 --> 00:03:08.854 than the extrapolation would predict them to occur 00:03:08.854 --> 00:03:12.791 based on the calibration of the 99 percent remaining 00:03:12.791 --> 00:03:15.040 peak-to-valleys. 00:03:15.040 --> 00:03:19.640 They are due to trenchant dependancies 00:03:19.640 --> 00:03:23.152 such that a loss is followed by a loss 00:03:23.152 --> 00:03:26.115 which is followed by a loss which is followed by a loss. 00:03:26.115 --> 00:03:29.226 These kinds of dependencies 00:03:29.226 --> 00:03:34.838 are largely missed by standard risk management tools, 00:03:34.838 --> 00:03:37.767 which ignore them and see lizards 00:03:37.767 --> 00:03:41.586 when they should see dragon-kings. 00:03:41.586 --> 00:03:45.503 The root mechanism of a dragon-king 00:03:45.503 --> 00:03:48.639 is a slow maturation towards instability, 00:03:48.639 --> 00:03:50.261 which is the bubble, 00:03:50.261 --> 00:03:52.891 and the climax of the bubble is often the crash. 00:03:52.891 --> 00:03:56.516 This is similar to the slow heating of water 00:03:56.516 --> 00:03:59.419 in this test tube reaching the boiling point, 00:03:59.419 --> 00:04:01.909 where the instability of the water occurs 00:04:01.909 --> 00:04:05.246 and you have the phase transition to vapor. 00:04:05.246 --> 00:04:08.923 And this process, which is absolutely non-linear -- 00:04:08.923 --> 00:04:11.203 cannot be predicted by standard techniques -- 00:04:11.203 --> 00:04:15.379 is the reflection of a collective emergent behavior 00:04:15.379 --> 00:04:17.758 which is fundamentally endogenous. 00:04:17.758 --> 00:04:20.971 So the cause of the crash, the cause of the crisis 00:04:20.971 --> 00:04:24.155 has to be found in an inner instability of the system, 00:04:24.155 --> 00:04:30.191 and any tiny perturbation will make this instability occur. NOTE Paragraph 00:04:30.191 --> 00:04:33.891 Now, some of you may have come to the mind 00:04:33.891 --> 00:04:36.516 that is this not related to the black swan concept 00:04:36.516 --> 00:04:39.451 you have heard about frequently? 00:04:39.451 --> 00:04:41.868 Remember, black swan is this rare bird 00:04:41.868 --> 00:04:45.277 that you see once and suddenly shattered your belief 00:04:45.277 --> 00:04:47.751 that all swans should be white, 00:04:47.751 --> 00:04:51.295 so it has captured the idea of unpredictability, 00:04:51.295 --> 00:04:52.804 unknowability, that the extreme events 00:04:52.804 --> 00:04:55.635 are fundamentally unknowable. 00:04:55.635 --> 00:04:57.360 Nothing can be further 00:04:57.360 --> 00:04:59.998 from the dragon-king concept I propose, 00:04:59.998 --> 00:05:03.716 which is exactly the opposite, that most extreme events 00:05:03.716 --> 00:05:06.939 are actually knowable and predictable. 00:05:06.939 --> 00:05:10.444 So we can be empowered and take responsibility 00:05:10.444 --> 00:05:12.663 and make predictions about them. 00:05:12.663 --> 00:05:15.863 So let's have my dragon-king burn this black swan concept. NOTE Paragraph 00:05:15.863 --> 00:05:17.489 (Laughter) NOTE Paragraph 00:05:17.489 --> 00:05:20.429 There are many early warning signals 00:05:20.429 --> 00:05:22.308 that are predicted by this theory. 00:05:22.308 --> 00:05:24.675 Let me just focus on one of them: 00:05:24.675 --> 00:05:27.827 the super-exponential growth with positive feedback. 00:05:27.827 --> 00:05:28.987 What does it mean? 00:05:28.987 --> 00:05:31.160 Imagine you have an investment 00:05:31.160 --> 00:05:34.314 that returns the first year five percent, 00:05:34.314 --> 00:05:37.469 the second year 10 percent, the third year 20 percent, 00:05:37.469 --> 00:05:40.011 the next year 40 percent. Is that not marvelous? 00:05:40.011 --> 00:05:43.409 This is a super-exponential growth. 00:05:43.409 --> 00:05:45.346 A standard exponential growth corresponds 00:05:45.346 --> 00:05:49.090 to a constant growth rate, let's say, of 10 percent 00:05:49.090 --> 00:05:52.571 The point is that, many times during bubbles, 00:05:52.571 --> 00:05:56.168 there are positive feedbacks which can be of many times, 00:05:56.168 --> 00:05:59.867 such that previous growths enhance, 00:05:59.867 --> 00:06:03.355 push forward, increase the next growth 00:06:03.355 --> 00:06:05.857 through this kind of super-exponential growth, 00:06:05.857 --> 00:06:08.971 which is very trenchant, not sustainable. 00:06:08.971 --> 00:06:12.028 And the key idea is that the mathematical solution 00:06:12.028 --> 00:06:15.666 of this class of models exhibit finite-time singularities, 00:06:15.666 --> 00:06:19.019 which means that there is a critical time 00:06:19.019 --> 00:06:22.223 where the system will break, will change regime. 00:06:22.223 --> 00:06:25.499 It may be a crash. It may be just a plateau, something else. 00:06:25.499 --> 00:06:27.766 And the key idea is that the critical time, 00:06:27.766 --> 00:06:30.295 the information about the critical time is contained 00:06:30.295 --> 00:06:35.779 in the early development of this super-exponential growth. NOTE Paragraph 00:06:35.779 --> 00:06:40.139 We have applied this theory early on, that was our first success, 00:06:40.139 --> 00:06:43.698 to the diagnostic of the rupture of key elements 00:06:43.698 --> 00:06:46.227 on the iron rocket. 00:06:46.227 --> 00:06:49.049 Using acoustic emission, you know, this little noise 00:06:49.049 --> 00:06:51.346 that you hear a structure emit, sing to you 00:06:51.346 --> 00:06:55.037 when they are stressed, and reveal the damage going on, 00:06:55.037 --> 00:06:57.477 there's a collective phenomenon of positive feedback, 00:06:57.477 --> 00:06:59.174 the more damage gives the more damage, 00:06:59.174 --> 00:07:01.649 so you can actually predict, 00:07:01.649 --> 00:07:03.789 within, of course, a probability band, 00:07:03.789 --> 00:07:05.702 when the rupture will occur. 00:07:05.702 --> 00:07:08.137 So this is now so successful that it is used 00:07:08.137 --> 00:07:12.502 in the initial phase of [unclear] the flight. NOTE Paragraph 00:07:12.502 --> 00:07:15.309 Perhaps more surprisingly, the same type of theory 00:07:15.309 --> 00:07:18.037 applies to biology and medicine, 00:07:18.037 --> 00:07:21.733 parturition, the act of giving birth, epileptic seizures. 00:07:21.733 --> 00:07:25.357 From seven months of pregnancy, a mother 00:07:25.357 --> 00:07:31.021 starts to feel episodic precursory contractions of the uterus 00:07:31.021 --> 00:07:35.125 that are the sign of these maturations 00:07:35.125 --> 00:07:38.549 toward the instability, giving birth to the baby, 00:07:38.549 --> 00:07:40.920 the dragon-king. 00:07:40.920 --> 00:07:43.526 So if you measure the precursor signal, 00:07:43.526 --> 00:07:49.751 you can actually identify pre- and post-maturity problems 00:07:49.751 --> 00:07:51.222 in advance. 00:07:51.222 --> 00:07:54.982 Epileptic seizures also come in a large variety of size, 00:07:54.982 --> 00:07:58.262 and when the brain goes to a super-critical state, 00:07:58.262 --> 00:08:01.835 you have dragon-kings which have a degree of predictability 00:08:01.835 --> 00:08:07.342 and this can help the patient to deal with this illness. 00:08:07.342 --> 00:08:09.527 We have applied this theory to many systems, 00:08:09.527 --> 00:08:12.382 landslides, glacier collapse, 00:08:12.382 --> 00:08:15.949 even to the dynamics of prediction of success: 00:08:15.949 --> 00:08:20.335 blockbusters, YouTube videos, movies, and so on. 00:08:20.335 --> 00:08:23.471 But perhaps the most important application 00:08:23.471 --> 00:08:25.837 is for finance, and this theory 00:08:25.837 --> 00:08:29.276 illuminates, I believe, the deep reason 00:08:29.276 --> 00:08:31.972 for the financial crisis that we have gone through. 00:08:31.972 --> 00:08:36.020 This is rooted in 30 years of history of bubbles, 00:08:36.020 --> 00:08:39.732 starting in 1980, with the global bubble 00:08:39.732 --> 00:08:41.819 crashing in 1987, 00:08:41.819 --> 00:08:44.188 followed by many other bubbles. 00:08:44.188 --> 00:08:46.900 The biggest one was the "new economy" Internet bubble 00:08:46.900 --> 00:08:48.825 in 2000, crashing in 2000, 00:08:48.825 --> 00:08:50.873 the real estate bubbles in many countries, 00:08:50.873 --> 00:08:53.653 financial derivative bubbles everywhere, 00:08:53.653 --> 00:08:55.942 stock market bubbles also everywhere, 00:08:55.942 --> 00:08:59.893 commodity and all bubbles, debt and credit bubbles -- 00:08:59.893 --> 00:09:02.606 bubbles, bubbles, bubbles. NOTE Paragraph 00:09:02.606 --> 00:09:05.245 We had a global bubble. 00:09:05.245 --> 00:09:09.486 This is a measure of global overvaluation 00:09:09.486 --> 00:09:13.492 of all markets, expressing what I call 00:09:13.508 --> 00:09:16.677 an illusion of a perpetual money machine 00:09:16.677 --> 00:09:20.629 that suddenly broke in 2007. NOTE Paragraph 00:09:20.629 --> 00:09:24.863 The problem is that we see the same process, 00:09:24.863 --> 00:09:27.594 in particular through quantitative easing, 00:09:27.594 --> 00:09:30.778 of a thinking of a perpetual money machine nowadays 00:09:30.778 --> 00:09:35.181 to tackle the crisis since 2008 in the U.S., in Europe, 00:09:35.181 --> 00:09:37.469 in Japan. 00:09:37.469 --> 00:09:39.859 This has very important implications 00:09:39.859 --> 00:09:43.937 to understand the failure of quantitative easing 00:09:43.937 --> 00:09:45.813 as well as austerity measures 00:09:45.813 --> 00:09:48.622 as long as we don't attack the core, 00:09:48.622 --> 00:09:53.813 the structural cause of this perpetual money machine thinking. NOTE Paragraph 00:09:53.813 --> 00:09:56.429 Now, these are big claims. 00:09:56.429 --> 00:09:59.311 Why would you believe me? 00:09:59.311 --> 00:10:02.191 Well, perhaps because, in the last 15 years 00:10:02.191 --> 00:10:05.383 we have come out of our ivory tower, 00:10:05.383 --> 00:10:08.119 and started to publish ex ante -- 00:10:08.119 --> 00:10:11.447 and I stress the term ex ante, it means "in advance" — 00:10:11.447 --> 00:10:13.585 before the crash confirmed 00:10:13.585 --> 00:10:16.271 the existence of the bubble or the financial excesses. 00:10:16.271 --> 00:10:19.993 These are a few of the major bubbles 00:10:19.993 --> 00:10:24.471 that we have lived through in recent history. 00:10:24.471 --> 00:10:27.311 Again, many interesting stories for each of them. 00:10:27.311 --> 00:10:30.025 Let me tell you just one or two stories 00:10:30.025 --> 00:10:32.071 that deal with massive bubbles. NOTE Paragraph 00:10:32.071 --> 00:10:34.407 We all know the Chinese miracle. 00:10:34.407 --> 00:10:37.477 This is the expression of the stock market 00:10:37.477 --> 00:10:40.357 of a massive bubble, a factor of three, 00:10:40.357 --> 00:10:42.527 300 percent in just a few years. 00:10:42.527 --> 00:10:45.729 In September 2007, 00:10:45.729 --> 00:10:49.376 I was invited as a keynote speaker of a macro hedge fund 00:10:49.376 --> 00:10:51.825 management conference, 00:10:51.825 --> 00:10:55.880 and I showed to the conference a prediction 00:10:55.880 --> 00:11:00.073 that by the end of 2007, this bubble 00:11:00.073 --> 00:11:02.042 would change regime. 00:11:02.042 --> 00:11:05.127 There might be a crash. Certainly not sustainable. 00:11:05.127 --> 00:11:10.369 Now, how do you believe the very smart, 00:11:10.369 --> 00:11:15.799 very motivated, very informed macro hedge fund managers 00:11:15.799 --> 00:11:17.755 reacted to this prediction? 00:11:17.755 --> 00:11:19.711 You know, they had made billions 00:11:19.711 --> 00:11:22.546 just surfing this bubble until now. 00:11:22.546 --> 00:11:24.130 They told me, "Didier, 00:11:24.130 --> 00:11:27.167 yeah, the market might be overvalued, 00:11:27.167 --> 00:11:29.063 but you forget something. 00:11:29.063 --> 00:11:31.415 There is the Beijing Olympic Games coming 00:11:31.415 --> 00:11:33.679 in August 2008, and it's very clear that 00:11:33.679 --> 00:11:36.871 the Chinese government is controlling the economy 00:11:36.871 --> 00:11:38.224 and doing what it takes 00:11:38.224 --> 00:11:42.671 to also avoid any wave and control the stock market." NOTE Paragraph 00:11:42.671 --> 00:11:45.142 Three weeks after my presentation, 00:11:45.142 --> 00:11:47.268 the markets lost 20 percent 00:11:47.268 --> 00:11:49.529 and went through a phase of volatility, 00:11:49.529 --> 00:11:52.255 upheaval, and a total market loss of 00:11:52.255 --> 00:11:54.523 70 percent until the end of the year. NOTE Paragraph 00:11:54.523 --> 00:11:57.399 So how can we be so collectively wrong 00:11:57.399 --> 00:12:01.541 by misreading or ignoring the science 00:12:01.541 --> 00:12:04.372 of the fact that when an instability has developed, 00:12:04.372 --> 00:12:06.823 and the system is ripe, any perturbation 00:12:06.823 --> 00:12:10.504 makes it essentially impossible to control? NOTE Paragraph 00:12:10.504 --> 00:12:15.209 The Chinese market collapsed, but it rebounded. 00:12:15.209 --> 00:12:19.965 In 2009, we also identified that this new bubble, 00:12:19.965 --> 00:12:22.551 a smaller one, was unsustainable, 00:12:22.551 --> 00:12:26.183 so we published again a prediction, in advance, 00:12:26.183 --> 00:12:30.510 stating that by August 2009, the market will correct, 00:12:30.510 --> 00:12:33.191 will not continue on this track. 00:12:33.191 --> 00:12:36.343 Our critics, reading the prediction, 00:12:36.343 --> 00:12:40.256 said, "No, it's not possible. 00:12:40.256 --> 00:12:41.750 The Chinese government is there. 00:12:41.750 --> 00:12:44.432 They have learned their lesson. They will control. 00:12:44.432 --> 00:12:46.239 They want to benefit from the growth." 00:12:46.239 --> 00:12:49.895 Perhaps these critics have not learned their lesson previously. 00:12:49.895 --> 00:12:53.727 So the crisis did occur. The market corrected. NOTE Paragraph 00:12:53.727 --> 00:12:56.063 The same critics then said, "Ah, yes, 00:12:56.063 --> 00:12:57.912 but you published your prediction. 00:12:57.912 --> 00:12:59.568 You influenced the market. 00:12:59.568 --> 00:13:02.701 It was not a prediction." NOTE Paragraph 00:13:02.701 --> 00:13:06.058 Maybe I am very powerful then. 00:13:06.058 --> 00:13:08.102 Now, this is interesting. 00:13:08.102 --> 00:13:11.039 It shows that it's essentially impossible until now 00:13:11.039 --> 00:13:13.167 to develop a science of economics 00:13:13.167 --> 00:13:16.310 because we are sentient beings who anticipate 00:13:16.310 --> 00:13:20.373 and there is a problem of self-fulfilling prophesies. NOTE Paragraph 00:13:20.373 --> 00:13:24.106 So we invented a new way of doing science. 00:13:24.106 --> 00:13:26.818 We created the Financial Bubble Experiment. 00:13:26.818 --> 00:13:29.490 The idea is the following. We monitor the markets. 00:13:29.490 --> 00:13:33.658 We identify excesses, bubbles. 00:13:33.658 --> 00:13:36.962 We do our work. We write a report 00:13:36.962 --> 00:13:41.234 in which we put our prediction of the critical time. 00:13:41.234 --> 00:13:43.809 We don't release the report. It's kept secret. 00:13:43.809 --> 00:13:46.674 But with modern encrypting techniques, 00:13:46.674 --> 00:13:50.696 we have a hash, we publish a public key, 00:13:50.696 --> 00:13:54.651 and six months later, we release the report, 00:13:54.651 --> 00:13:57.050 and there is authentication. 00:13:57.050 --> 00:14:01.818 And all this is done on an international archive 00:14:01.818 --> 00:14:06.018 so that we cannot be accused of just releasing the successes. NOTE Paragraph 00:14:06.018 --> 00:14:09.410 Let me tease you with a very recent analysis. 00:14:09.410 --> 00:14:12.668 17th of May, 2013, just two weeks ago, 00:14:12.668 --> 00:14:14.346 we identified that the U.S. stock market 00:14:14.346 --> 00:14:16.738 was on an unsustainable path 00:14:16.738 --> 00:14:20.540 and we released this on our website on the 21st of May 00:14:20.540 --> 00:14:22.585 that there will be a change of regime. 00:14:22.585 --> 00:14:27.369 The next day, the market started to change regime, course. 00:14:27.369 --> 00:14:28.860 This is not a crash. 00:14:28.860 --> 00:14:31.459 This is just the third or fourth act 00:14:31.459 --> 00:14:34.322 of a massive bubble in the making. 00:14:34.322 --> 00:14:37.418 Scaling up the discussion at the size of the planet, 00:14:37.418 --> 00:14:38.443 we see the same thing. 00:14:38.443 --> 00:14:41.364 Wherever we look, it's observable: 00:14:41.364 --> 00:14:44.594 in the biosphere, in the atmosphere, in the ocean, 00:14:44.594 --> 00:14:48.498 showing these super-exponential trajectories 00:14:48.498 --> 00:14:51.129 characterizing an unsustainable path 00:14:51.129 --> 00:14:53.746 and announcing a phase transition. 00:14:53.746 --> 00:14:55.450 This diagram on the right 00:14:55.450 --> 00:14:58.450 shows a very beautiful compilation of studies 00:14:58.450 --> 00:15:02.160 suggesting indeed that there is a nonlinear -- possibility 00:15:02.160 --> 00:15:06.309 for a nonlinear transition just in the next few decades. NOTE Paragraph 00:15:06.309 --> 00:15:09.931 So there are bubbles everywhere. 00:15:09.931 --> 00:15:11.895 From one side, this is exciting 00:15:11.895 --> 00:15:14.655 for me, as a professor who chases bubbles 00:15:14.655 --> 00:15:19.413 and slays dragons, as the media has sometimes called me. NOTE Paragraph 00:15:19.413 --> 00:15:22.464 But can we really slay the dragons? 00:15:22.464 --> 00:15:24.608 Very recently, with collaborators, 00:15:24.608 --> 00:15:27.311 we studied a dynamical system 00:15:27.311 --> 00:15:30.215 where you see the dragon-king as these big loops 00:15:30.215 --> 00:15:34.136 and we were able to apply tiny perturbations at the right times 00:15:34.136 --> 00:15:39.071 that removed, when control is on, these dragons. NOTE Paragraph 00:15:39.071 --> 00:15:42.005 "Gouverner, c'est prévoir." 00:15:42.005 --> 00:15:47.799 Governing is the art of planning and predicting. 00:15:47.799 --> 00:15:50.552 But is it not the case that this is probably 00:15:50.552 --> 00:15:54.452 one of the biggest gaps of mankind, 00:15:54.452 --> 00:15:57.712 which has the responsibility to steer 00:15:57.712 --> 00:16:00.415 our societies and our planet toward sustainability 00:16:00.428 --> 00:16:05.272 in the face of growing challenges and crises? NOTE Paragraph 00:16:05.272 --> 00:16:09.767 But the dragon-king theory gives hope. 00:16:09.767 --> 00:16:13.335 We learn that most systems have pockets of predictability. 00:16:13.335 --> 00:16:18.235 It is possible to develop advance diagnostics of crises 00:16:18.235 --> 00:16:21.794 so that we can be prepared, we can take measures, 00:16:21.794 --> 00:16:24.549 we can take responsibility, 00:16:24.549 --> 00:16:27.296 and so that never again will 00:16:27.296 --> 00:16:31.150 extremes and crises like the Great Recession 00:16:31.150 --> 00:16:35.560 or the European crisis take us by surprise. NOTE Paragraph 00:16:35.560 --> 00:16:37.035 Thank you. NOTE Paragraph 00:16:37.035 --> 00:16:43.328 (Applause)