WEBVTT 00:00:00.354 --> 00:00:03.486 Chris Anderson: Elon, what kind of crazy dream 00:00:03.486 --> 00:00:05.642 would persuade you to think of trying 00:00:05.642 --> 00:00:09.000 to take on the auto industry and build an all-electric car? NOTE Paragraph 00:00:09.000 --> 00:00:12.402 Elon Musk: Well, it goes back to when I was in university. 00:00:12.402 --> 00:00:14.554 I thought about, what are the problems that are most likely 00:00:14.554 --> 00:00:17.626 to affect the future of the world or the future of humanity? 00:00:17.626 --> 00:00:21.118 I think it's extremely important that we have sustainable transport 00:00:21.118 --> 00:00:23.477 and sustainable energy production. 00:00:23.477 --> 00:00:25.522 That sort of overall sustainable energy problem 00:00:25.522 --> 00:00:28.021 is the biggest problem that we have to solve this century, 00:00:28.021 --> 00:00:30.226 independent of environmental concerns. 00:00:30.226 --> 00:00:33.143 In fact, even if producing CO2 was good for the environment, 00:00:33.143 --> 00:00:36.223 given that we're going to run out of hydrocarbons, 00:00:36.223 --> 00:00:40.278 we need to find some sustainable means of operating. NOTE Paragraph 00:00:40.278 --> 00:00:44.288 CA: Most of American electricity comes from 00:00:44.288 --> 00:00:45.950 burning fossil fuels. 00:00:45.950 --> 00:00:50.565 How can an electric car that plugs into that electricity help? NOTE Paragraph 00:00:50.565 --> 00:00:53.524 EM: Right. There's two elements to that answer. 00:00:53.524 --> 00:00:56.484 One is that, even if you take the same source fuel 00:00:56.484 --> 00:00:58.473 and produce power at the power plant 00:00:58.473 --> 00:01:01.367 and use it to charge electric cars, you're still better off. 00:01:01.367 --> 00:01:03.346 So if you take, say, natural gas, 00:01:03.346 --> 00:01:05.954 which is the most prevalent hydrocarbon source fuel, 00:01:05.954 --> 00:01:08.952 if you burn that in a modern 00:01:08.952 --> 00:01:11.147 General Electric natural gas turbine, 00:01:11.147 --> 00:01:12.985 you'll get about 60 percent efficiency. 00:01:12.985 --> 00:01:15.696 If you put that same fuel in an internal combustion engine car, 00:01:15.696 --> 00:01:17.596 you get about 20 percent efficiency. 00:01:17.596 --> 00:01:19.176 And the reason is, in the stationary power plant, 00:01:19.176 --> 00:01:21.544 you can afford to have something that weighs a lot more, 00:01:21.544 --> 00:01:23.259 is voluminous, 00:01:23.259 --> 00:01:24.713 and you can take the waste heat 00:01:24.713 --> 00:01:26.082 and run a steam turbine and generate 00:01:26.082 --> 00:01:27.866 a secondary power source. 00:01:27.866 --> 00:01:31.652 So in effect, even after you've taken transmission loss into account and everything, 00:01:31.652 --> 00:01:35.056 even using the same source fuel, you're at least twice as better off 00:01:35.056 --> 00:01:37.528 charging an electric car, then burning it at the power plant. NOTE Paragraph 00:01:37.528 --> 00:01:39.639 CA: That scale delivers efficiency. NOTE Paragraph 00:01:39.639 --> 00:01:41.378 EM: Yes, it does. 00:01:41.378 --> 00:01:44.396 And then the other point is, we have to have sustainable means 00:01:44.396 --> 00:01:46.799 of power generation anyway, electricity generation. 00:01:46.799 --> 00:01:49.868 So given that we have to solve sustainable electricity generation, 00:01:49.868 --> 00:01:53.333 then it makes sense for us to have electric cars 00:01:53.333 --> 00:01:55.908 as the mode of transport. NOTE Paragraph 00:01:55.908 --> 00:01:57.343 CA: So we've got some video here 00:01:57.343 --> 00:01:59.834 of the Tesla being assembled, 00:01:59.834 --> 00:02:02.548 which, if we could play that first video -- 00:02:02.548 --> 00:02:07.492 So what is innovative about this process in this vehicle? NOTE Paragraph 00:02:07.492 --> 00:02:11.068 EM: Sure. So, in order to accelerate the advent of electric transport, 00:02:11.068 --> 00:02:13.138 and I should say that I think, actually, 00:02:13.138 --> 00:02:15.596 all modes of transport will become fully electric 00:02:15.596 --> 00:02:20.663 with the ironic exception of rockets. 00:02:20.663 --> 00:02:23.420 There's just no way around Newton's third law. 00:02:23.420 --> 00:02:26.872 The question is how do you accelerate 00:02:26.872 --> 00:02:28.452 the advent of electric transport? 00:02:28.452 --> 00:02:30.900 And in order to do that for cars, you have to come up with 00:02:30.900 --> 00:02:33.227 a really energy efficient car, 00:02:33.227 --> 00:02:35.084 so that means making it incredibly light, 00:02:35.084 --> 00:02:36.110 and so what you're seeing here 00:02:36.110 --> 00:02:38.856 is the only all-aluminum body and chassis car 00:02:38.856 --> 00:02:40.442 made in North America. 00:02:40.442 --> 00:02:43.130 In fact, we applied a lot of rocket design techniques 00:02:43.130 --> 00:02:46.747 to make the car light despite having a very large battery pack. 00:02:46.747 --> 00:02:48.907 And then it also has the lowest drag coefficient 00:02:48.907 --> 00:02:50.275 of any car of its size. 00:02:50.275 --> 00:02:53.940 So as a result, the energy usage is very low, 00:02:53.940 --> 00:02:56.156 and it has the most advanced battery pack, 00:02:56.156 --> 00:02:58.740 and that's what gives it the range that's competitive, 00:02:58.740 --> 00:03:01.679 so you can actually have on the order of a 250-mile range. NOTE Paragraph 00:03:01.679 --> 00:03:05.268 CA: I mean, those battery packs are incredibly heavy, 00:03:05.268 --> 00:03:08.539 but you think the math can still work out intelligently -- 00:03:08.539 --> 00:03:10.675 by combining light body, heavy battery, 00:03:10.675 --> 00:03:12.948 you can still gain spectacular efficiency. NOTE Paragraph 00:03:12.948 --> 00:03:14.780 EM: Exactly. The rest of the car has to be very light 00:03:14.780 --> 00:03:16.541 to offset the mass of the pack, 00:03:16.541 --> 00:03:19.570 and then you have to have a low drag coefficient so that you have good highway range. 00:03:19.570 --> 00:03:23.295 And in fact, customers of the Model S 00:03:23.295 --> 00:03:24.374 are sort of competing with each other 00:03:24.374 --> 00:03:27.393 to try to get the highest possible range. 00:03:27.393 --> 00:03:30.923 I think somebody recently got 420 miles out of a single charge. NOTE Paragraph 00:03:30.923 --> 00:03:34.011 CA: Bruno Bowden, who's here, did that, 00:03:34.011 --> 00:03:36.601 broke the world record.EM: Congratulations. NOTE Paragraph 00:03:36.601 --> 00:03:38.213 CA: That was the good news. The bad news was that 00:03:38.213 --> 00:03:41.027 to do it, he had to drive at 18 miles an hour constant speed 00:03:41.027 --> 00:03:44.939 and got pulled over by the cops. (Laughter) NOTE Paragraph 00:03:44.939 --> 00:03:48.829 EM: I mean, you can certainly drive -- 00:03:48.829 --> 00:03:51.467 if you drive it 65 miles an hour, 00:03:51.467 --> 00:03:53.431 under normal conditions, 00:03:53.431 --> 00:03:55.315 250 miles is a reasonable number. NOTE Paragraph 00:03:55.315 --> 00:03:56.453 CA: Let's show that second video 00:03:56.453 --> 00:03:59.299 showing the Tesla in action on ice. 00:03:59.299 --> 00:04:01.967 Not at all a dig at The New York Times, this, by the way. 00:04:01.967 --> 00:04:04.382 What is the most surprising thing about the experience 00:04:04.382 --> 00:04:05.890 of driving the car? NOTE Paragraph 00:04:05.890 --> 00:04:07.368 EM: In creating an electric car, 00:04:07.368 --> 00:04:09.766 the responsiveness of the car is really incredible. 00:04:09.766 --> 00:04:12.453 So we wanted really to have people feel as though 00:04:12.453 --> 00:04:14.556 they've almost got to mind meld with the car, 00:04:14.556 --> 00:04:17.730 so you just feel like you and the car are kind of one, 00:04:17.730 --> 00:04:21.776 and as you corner and accelerate, it just happens, 00:04:21.776 --> 00:04:23.610 like the car has ESP. 00:04:23.610 --> 00:04:26.106 You can do that with an electric car because of its responsiveness. 00:04:26.106 --> 00:04:28.233 You can't do that with a gasoline car. 00:04:28.233 --> 00:04:30.215 I think that's really a profound difference, 00:04:30.215 --> 00:04:33.002 and people only experience that when they have a test drive. NOTE Paragraph 00:04:33.002 --> 00:04:37.296 CA: I mean, this is a beautiful but expensive car. 00:04:37.296 --> 00:04:40.871 Is there a road map where this becomes 00:04:40.871 --> 00:04:42.450 a mass-market vehicle? NOTE Paragraph 00:04:42.450 --> 00:04:45.010 EM: Yeah. The goal of Tesla has always been 00:04:45.010 --> 00:04:47.282 to have a sort of three-step process, 00:04:47.282 --> 00:04:51.048 where version one was an expensive car at low volume, 00:04:51.048 --> 00:04:54.113 version two is medium priced and medium volume, 00:04:54.113 --> 00:04:56.402 and then version three would be low price, high volume. 00:04:56.402 --> 00:04:58.085 So we're at step two at this point. 00:04:58.085 --> 00:05:01.035 So we had a $100,000 sports car, which was the Roadster. 00:05:01.035 --> 00:05:04.034 Then we've got the Model S, which starts at around 50,000 dollars. 00:05:04.034 --> 00:05:06.138 And our third generation car, which should hopefully 00:05:06.138 --> 00:05:07.867 be out in about three or four years 00:05:07.867 --> 00:05:10.522 will be a $30,000 car. 00:05:10.522 --> 00:05:13.004 But whenever you've got really new technology, 00:05:13.004 --> 00:05:15.098 it generally takes about three major versions 00:05:15.098 --> 00:05:18.318 in order to make it a compelling mass-market product. 00:05:18.318 --> 00:05:21.042 And so I think we're making progress in that direction, 00:05:21.042 --> 00:05:23.314 and I feel confident that we'll get there. NOTE Paragraph 00:05:23.314 --> 00:05:25.223 CA: I mean, right now, if you've got a short commute, 00:05:25.223 --> 00:05:28.971 you can drive, you can get back, you can charge it at home. 00:05:28.971 --> 00:05:33.218 There isn't a huge nationwide network of charging stations now that are fast. 00:05:33.218 --> 00:05:36.058 Do you see that coming, really, truly, 00:05:36.058 --> 00:05:38.311 or just on a few key routes? NOTE Paragraph 00:05:38.311 --> 00:05:41.186 EM: There actually are far more charging stations 00:05:41.186 --> 00:05:43.411 than people realize, 00:05:43.411 --> 00:05:45.770 and at Tesla we developed something 00:05:45.770 --> 00:05:47.978 called a Supercharging technology, 00:05:47.978 --> 00:05:51.290 and we're offering that if you buy a Model S 00:05:51.290 --> 00:05:52.755 for free, forever. 00:05:52.755 --> 00:05:55.410 And so this is something that maybe a lot of people don't realize. 00:05:55.410 --> 00:05:58.240 We actually have California and Nevada covered, 00:05:58.240 --> 00:06:00.514 and we've got the Eastern seaboard 00:06:00.514 --> 00:06:02.766 from Boston to D.C. covered. 00:06:02.766 --> 00:06:04.148 By the end of this year, you'll be able to drive 00:06:04.148 --> 00:06:06.291 from L.A. to New York 00:06:06.291 --> 00:06:07.893 just using the Supercharger network, 00:06:07.893 --> 00:06:12.110 which charges at five times the rate of anything else. 00:06:12.110 --> 00:06:16.536 And the key thing is to have a ratio of drive to stop, 00:06:16.536 --> 00:06:19.535 to stop time, of about six or seven. 00:06:19.535 --> 00:06:21.765 So if you drive for three hours, 00:06:21.765 --> 00:06:23.403 you want to stop for 20 or 30 minutes, 00:06:23.403 --> 00:06:25.900 because that's normally what people will stop for. 00:06:25.900 --> 00:06:28.020 So if you start a trip at 9 a.m., 00:06:28.020 --> 00:06:30.558 by noon you want to stop to have a bite to eat, 00:06:30.558 --> 00:06:32.297 hit the restroom, coffee, and keep going. NOTE Paragraph 00:06:32.297 --> 00:06:35.654 CA: So your proposition to consumers is, for the full charge, it could take an hour. 00:06:35.654 --> 00:06:39.630 So it's common -- don't expect to be out of here in 10 minutes. 00:06:39.630 --> 00:06:41.597 Wait for an hour, but the good news is, 00:06:41.597 --> 00:06:43.036 you're helping save the planet, 00:06:43.036 --> 00:06:45.729 and by the way, the electricity is free. You don't pay anything. NOTE Paragraph 00:06:45.729 --> 00:06:47.593 EM: Actually, what we're expecting is for people 00:06:47.593 --> 00:06:51.118 to stop for about 20 to 30 minutes, not for an hour. 00:06:51.118 --> 00:06:58.846 It's actually better to drive for about maybe 160, 170 miles 00:06:58.846 --> 00:07:00.944 and then stop for half an hour 00:07:00.944 --> 00:07:02.309 and then keep going. 00:07:02.309 --> 00:07:05.591 That's the natural cadence of a trip. 00:07:05.591 --> 00:07:09.972 CA: All right. So this is only one string to your energy bow. 00:07:09.972 --> 00:07:12.614 You've been working on this solar company SolarCity. 00:07:12.614 --> 00:07:15.126 What's unusual about that? NOTE Paragraph 00:07:15.126 --> 00:07:17.486 EM: Well, as I mentioned earlier, 00:07:17.486 --> 00:07:21.126 we have to have sustainable electricity production 00:07:21.126 --> 00:07:22.774 as well as consumption, 00:07:22.774 --> 00:07:26.596 so I'm quite confident that the primary means 00:07:26.596 --> 00:07:29.077 of power generation will be solar. 00:07:29.077 --> 00:07:31.412 I mean, it's really indirect fusion, is what it is. 00:07:31.412 --> 00:07:34.646 We've got this giant fusion generator in the sky called the sun, 00:07:34.646 --> 00:07:37.538 and we just need to tap a little bit of that energy 00:07:37.538 --> 00:07:40.414 for purposes of human civilization. 00:07:40.414 --> 00:07:42.420 What most people know but don't realize they know 00:07:42.420 --> 00:07:45.774 is that the world is almost entirely solar-powered already. 00:07:45.774 --> 00:07:49.014 If the sun wasn't there, we'd be a frozen ice ball 00:07:49.014 --> 00:07:51.176 at three degrees Kelvin, 00:07:51.176 --> 00:07:54.974 and the sun powers the entire system of precipitation. 00:07:54.974 --> 00:07:57.630 The whole ecosystem is solar-powered. NOTE Paragraph 00:07:57.630 --> 00:07:59.981 CA: But in a gallon of gasoline, you have, 00:07:59.981 --> 00:08:02.245 effectively, thousands of years of sun power 00:08:02.245 --> 00:08:04.310 compressed into a small space, 00:08:04.310 --> 00:08:07.289 so it's hard to make the numbers work right now on solar, 00:08:07.289 --> 00:08:10.378 and to remotely compete with, for example, natural gas, 00:08:10.378 --> 00:08:13.822 fracked natural gas. How are you going to build a business here? NOTE Paragraph 00:08:13.822 --> 00:08:17.131 EM: Well actually, I'm confident that solar 00:08:17.131 --> 00:08:21.047 will beat everything, hands down, including natural gas. NOTE Paragraph 00:08:21.047 --> 00:08:23.434 (Applause)CA: How? NOTE Paragraph 00:08:23.434 --> 00:08:27.007 EM: It must, actually. If it doesn't, we're in deep trouble. NOTE Paragraph 00:08:27.007 --> 00:08:30.041 CA: But you're not selling solar panels to consumers. 00:08:30.041 --> 00:08:31.192 What are you doing? 00:08:31.192 --> 00:08:34.440 EM: No, we actually are. You can buy a solar system 00:08:34.440 --> 00:08:35.982 or you can lease a solar system. 00:08:35.982 --> 00:08:37.972 Most people choose to lease. 00:08:37.972 --> 00:08:40.038 And the thing about solar power is that 00:08:40.038 --> 00:08:42.789 it doesn't have any feed stock or operational costs, 00:08:42.789 --> 00:08:46.014 so once it's installed, it's just there. 00:08:46.014 --> 00:08:50.515 It works for decades. It'll work for probably a century. 00:08:50.515 --> 00:08:53.453 So therefore, the key thing to do is to get the cost 00:08:53.453 --> 00:08:55.428 of that initial installation low, 00:08:55.428 --> 00:08:58.063 and then get the cost of the financing low, 00:08:58.063 --> 00:09:01.687 because that interest -- those are the two factors that drive the cost of solar. 00:09:01.687 --> 00:09:05.103 And we've made huge progress in that direction, 00:09:05.103 --> 00:09:08.671 and that's why I'm confident we'll actually beat natural gas. NOTE Paragraph 00:09:08.671 --> 00:09:11.448 CA: So your current proposition to consumers is, 00:09:11.448 --> 00:09:13.664 don't pay so much up front. NOTE Paragraph 00:09:13.664 --> 00:09:16.344 EM: Zero.CA: Pay zero up front. 00:09:16.344 --> 00:09:18.983 We will install panels on your roof. 00:09:18.983 --> 00:09:22.584 You will then pay, how long is a typical lease? NOTE Paragraph 00:09:22.584 --> 00:09:25.828 EM: Typical leases are 20 years, 00:09:25.828 --> 00:09:30.491 but the value proposition is, as you're sort of alluding to, quite straightforward. 00:09:30.491 --> 00:09:34.641 It's no money down, and your utility bill decreases. 00:09:34.641 --> 00:09:36.521 Pretty good deal. NOTE Paragraph 00:09:36.521 --> 00:09:38.434 CA: So that seems like a win for the consumer. 00:09:38.434 --> 00:09:40.889 No risk, you'll pay less than you're paying now. 00:09:40.889 --> 00:09:43.284 For you, the dream here then is that -- 00:09:43.284 --> 00:09:48.059 I mean, who owns the electricity from those panels for the longer term? 00:09:48.059 --> 00:09:51.241 I mean, how do you, the company, benefit? NOTE Paragraph 00:09:51.241 --> 00:09:54.783 EM: Well, essentially, 00:09:54.783 --> 00:10:00.670 SolarCity raises a chunk of capital 00:10:00.670 --> 00:10:04.340 from say, a company or a bank. 00:10:04.340 --> 00:10:06.553 Google is one of our big partners here. 00:10:06.553 --> 00:10:08.977 And they have an expected return on that capital. 00:10:08.977 --> 00:10:13.363 With that capital, SolarCity purchases and installs the panel on the roof 00:10:13.363 --> 00:10:16.809 and then charges the homeowner or business owner 00:10:16.809 --> 00:10:20.519 a monthly lease payment, which is less than the utility bill. NOTE Paragraph 00:10:20.519 --> 00:10:24.032 CA: But you yourself get a long-term commercial benefit from that power. 00:10:24.032 --> 00:10:27.796 You're kind of building a new type of distributed utility. NOTE Paragraph 00:10:27.796 --> 00:10:29.471 EM: Exactly. What it amounts to 00:10:29.471 --> 00:10:32.812 is a giant distributed utility. 00:10:32.812 --> 00:10:35.695 I think it's a good thing, because utilities 00:10:35.695 --> 00:10:38.532 have been this monopoly, and people haven't had any choice. 00:10:38.532 --> 00:10:40.627 So effectively it's the first time 00:10:40.627 --> 00:10:43.892 there's been competition for this monopoly, 00:10:43.892 --> 00:10:46.892 because the utilities have been the only ones 00:10:46.892 --> 00:10:49.539 that owned those power distribution lines, but now it's on your roof. 00:10:49.539 --> 00:10:51.430 So I think it's actually very empowering 00:10:51.430 --> 00:10:54.067 for homeowners and businesses. NOTE Paragraph 00:10:54.067 --> 00:10:55.425 CA: And you really picture a future 00:10:55.425 --> 00:10:59.344 where a majority of power in America, 00:10:59.344 --> 00:11:04.046 within a decade or two, or within your lifetime, it goes solar? NOTE Paragraph 00:11:04.046 --> 00:11:09.844 EM: I'm extremely confident that solar will be at least a plurality of power, 00:11:09.844 --> 00:11:11.956 and most likely a majority, 00:11:11.956 --> 00:11:17.216 and I predict it will be a plurality in less than 20 years. 00:11:17.216 --> 00:11:20.684 I made that bet with someone —CA: Definition of plurality is? NOTE Paragraph 00:11:20.684 --> 00:11:22.430 EM: More from solar than any other source. NOTE Paragraph 00:11:22.430 --> 00:11:26.188 CA: Ah. Who did you make the bet with? NOTE Paragraph 00:11:26.188 --> 00:11:29.588 EM: With a friend who will remain nameless. NOTE Paragraph 00:11:29.588 --> 00:11:33.908 CA: Just between us. (Laughter) NOTE Paragraph 00:11:33.908 --> 00:11:36.700 EM: I made that bet, I think, two or three years ago, 00:11:36.700 --> 00:11:38.503 so in roughly 18 years, 00:11:38.503 --> 00:11:42.060 I think we'll see more power from solar than any other source. NOTE Paragraph 00:11:42.060 --> 00:11:43.829 CA: All right, so let's go back to another bet that you made 00:11:43.829 --> 00:11:46.045 with yourself, I guess, a kind of crazy bet. 00:11:46.045 --> 00:11:50.822 You'd made some money from the sale of PayPal. 00:11:50.822 --> 00:11:53.258 You decided to build a space company. 00:11:53.258 --> 00:11:55.331 Why on Earth would someone do that? 00:11:55.331 --> 00:11:57.511 (Laughter) NOTE Paragraph 00:11:57.511 --> 00:12:00.324 EM: I got that question a lot, that's true. 00:12:00.324 --> 00:12:02.583 People would say, "Did you hear the joke about the guy 00:12:02.583 --> 00:12:05.484 who made a small fortune in the space industry?" 00:12:05.484 --> 00:12:09.732 Obviously, "He started with a large one," is the punchline. 00:12:09.732 --> 00:12:12.278 And so I tell people, well, I was trying to figure out 00:12:12.278 --> 00:12:14.565 the fastest way to turn a large fortune into a small one. 00:12:14.565 --> 00:12:17.606 And they'd look at me, like, "Is he serious?" NOTE Paragraph 00:12:17.606 --> 00:12:22.668 CA: And strangely, you were. So what happened? NOTE Paragraph 00:12:22.668 --> 00:12:25.850 EM: It was a close call. Things almost didn't work out. 00:12:25.850 --> 00:12:27.600 We came very close to failure, 00:12:27.600 --> 00:12:30.734 but we managed to get through that point in 2008. 00:12:30.734 --> 00:12:36.884 The goal of SpaceX is to try to advance rocket technology, 00:12:36.884 --> 00:12:38.838 and in particular to try to crack a problem 00:12:38.838 --> 00:12:40.422 that I think is vital 00:12:40.422 --> 00:12:42.449 for humanity to become a space-faring civilization, 00:12:42.449 --> 00:12:47.333 which is to have a rapidly and fully reusable rocket. NOTE Paragraph 00:12:47.333 --> 00:12:50.424 CA: Would humanity become a space-faring civilization? 00:12:50.424 --> 00:12:54.438 So that was a dream of yours, in a way, from a young age? 00:12:54.438 --> 00:12:57.817 You've dreamed of Mars and beyond? NOTE Paragraph 00:12:57.817 --> 00:12:59.953 EM: I did build rockets when I was a kid, 00:12:59.953 --> 00:13:01.349 but I didn't think I'd be involved in this. 00:13:01.349 --> 00:13:03.334 It was really more from the standpoint of 00:13:03.334 --> 00:13:07.204 what are the things that need to happen in order for 00:13:07.204 --> 00:13:10.024 the future to be an exciting and inspiring one? 00:13:10.024 --> 00:13:14.113 And I really think there's a fundamental difference, 00:13:14.113 --> 00:13:15.509 if you sort of look into the future, 00:13:15.509 --> 00:13:18.966 between a humanity that is a space-faring civilization, 00:13:18.966 --> 00:13:22.081 that's out there exploring the stars, on multiple planets, 00:13:22.081 --> 00:13:24.293 and I think that's really exciting, 00:13:24.293 --> 00:13:27.464 compared with one where we are forever confined to Earth 00:13:27.464 --> 00:13:29.752 until some eventual extinction event. NOTE Paragraph 00:13:29.752 --> 00:13:31.504 CA: So you've somehow slashed the cost of building 00:13:31.504 --> 00:13:34.848 a rocket by 75 percent, depending on how you calculate it. 00:13:34.848 --> 00:13:37.127 How on Earth have you done that? 00:13:37.127 --> 00:13:40.238 NASA has been doing this for years. How have you done this? NOTE Paragraph 00:13:40.238 --> 00:13:42.639 EM: Well, we've made significant advances 00:13:42.639 --> 00:13:45.402 in the technology of the airframe, the engines, 00:13:45.402 --> 00:13:48.623 the electronics and the launch operation. 00:13:48.623 --> 00:13:51.344 There's a long list of innovations 00:13:51.344 --> 00:13:53.512 that we've come up with there 00:13:53.512 --> 00:13:59.187 that are a little difficult to communicate in this talk, but -- NOTE Paragraph 00:13:59.187 --> 00:14:02.600 CA: Not least because you could still get copied, right? 00:14:02.600 --> 00:14:05.215 You haven't patented this stuff. It's really interesting to me. NOTE Paragraph 00:14:05.215 --> 00:14:07.455 EM: No, we don't patent.CA: You didn't patent because you think it's 00:14:07.455 --> 00:14:10.203 more dangerous to patent than not to patent. NOTE Paragraph 00:14:10.203 --> 00:14:12.899 EM: Since our primary competitors are national governments, 00:14:12.899 --> 00:14:17.368 the enforceability of patents is questionable.(Laughter) (Applause) NOTE Paragraph 00:14:17.368 --> 00:14:20.787 CA: That's really, really interesting. 00:14:20.787 --> 00:14:23.416 But the big innovation is still ahead, 00:14:23.416 --> 00:14:26.155 and you're working on it now. Tell us about this. NOTE Paragraph 00:14:26.155 --> 00:14:27.844 EM: Right, so the big innovation— NOTE Paragraph 00:14:27.844 --> 00:14:32.081 CA: In fact, let's roll that video and you can talk us through it, what's happening here. NOTE Paragraph 00:14:32.081 --> 00:14:36.155 EM: Absolutely. So the thing about rockets is that 00:14:36.155 --> 00:14:37.697 they're all expendable. 00:14:37.697 --> 00:14:39.959 All rockets that fly today are fully expendable. 00:14:39.959 --> 00:14:42.093 The space shuttle was an attempt at a reusable rocket, 00:14:42.093 --> 00:14:45.019 but even the main tank of the space shuttle was thrown away every time, 00:14:45.019 --> 00:14:47.115 and the parts that were reusable 00:14:47.115 --> 00:14:52.171 took a 10,000-person group nine months to refurbish for flight. 00:14:52.171 --> 00:14:55.757 So the space shuttle ended up costing a billion dollars per flight. 00:14:55.757 --> 00:14:57.939 Obviously that doesn't work very well for — NOTE Paragraph 00:14:57.939 --> 00:15:01.159 CA: What just happened there? We just saw something land? NOTE Paragraph 00:15:01.159 --> 00:15:05.490 EM: That's right. So it's important that the rocket stages 00:15:05.490 --> 00:15:08.855 be able to come back, to be able to return to the launch site 00:15:08.855 --> 00:15:11.872 and be ready to launch again within a matter of hours. NOTE Paragraph 00:15:11.872 --> 00:15:16.555 CA: Wow. Reusable rockets.EM: Yes. (Applause) 00:15:16.555 --> 00:15:19.763 And so what a lot of people don't realize is, 00:15:19.763 --> 00:15:22.361 the cost of the fuel, of the propellant, is very small. 00:15:22.361 --> 00:15:24.065 It's much like on a jet. 00:15:24.065 --> 00:15:27.581 So the cost of the propellant is about .3 percent 00:15:27.581 --> 00:15:29.483 of the cost of the rocket. 00:15:29.483 --> 00:15:31.635 So it's possible to achieve, let's say, 00:15:31.635 --> 00:15:34.475 roughly 100-fold improvement in the cost of spaceflight 00:15:34.475 --> 00:15:37.555 if you can effectively reuse the rocket. 00:15:37.555 --> 00:15:38.995 That's why it's so important. 00:15:38.995 --> 00:15:41.217 Every mode of transport that we use, 00:15:41.217 --> 00:15:44.147 whether it's planes, trains, automobiles, bikes, horses, 00:15:44.147 --> 00:15:46.483 is reusable, but not rockets. 00:15:46.483 --> 00:15:49.771 So we must solve this problem in order to become a space-faring civilization. NOTE Paragraph 00:15:49.771 --> 00:15:51.238 CA: You asked me the question earlier 00:15:51.238 --> 00:15:55.033 of how popular traveling on cruises would be 00:15:55.033 --> 00:16:01.168 if you had to burn your ships afterward.EM: Certain cruises are apparently highly problematic. NOTE Paragraph 00:16:01.168 --> 00:16:03.363 CA: Definitely more expensive. 00:16:03.363 --> 00:16:07.334 So that's potentially absolutely disruptive technology, 00:16:07.334 --> 00:16:11.507 and, I guess, paves the way for your dream to actually take, 00:16:11.507 --> 00:16:15.304 at some point, to take humanity to Mars at scale. 00:16:15.304 --> 00:16:17.586 You'd like to see a colony on Mars. NOTE Paragraph 00:16:17.601 --> 00:16:21.138 EM: Yeah, exactly. SpaceX, or some combination 00:16:21.138 --> 00:16:24.171 of companies and governments, needs to make progress 00:16:24.171 --> 00:16:27.130 in the direction of making life multi-planetary, 00:16:27.130 --> 00:16:30.762 of establishing a base on another planet, 00:16:30.762 --> 00:16:33.107 on Mars -- being the only realistic option -- 00:16:33.107 --> 00:16:34.489 and then building that base up 00:16:34.489 --> 00:16:37.438 until we're a true multi-planet species. NOTE Paragraph 00:16:37.438 --> 00:16:40.411 CA: So progress on this "let's make it reusable," 00:16:40.411 --> 00:16:44.230 how is that going? That was just a simulation video we saw. 00:16:44.230 --> 00:16:45.335 How's it going? NOTE Paragraph 00:16:45.335 --> 00:16:48.499 EM: We're actually, we've been making some good progress recently 00:16:48.499 --> 00:16:51.083 with something we call the Grasshopper Test Project, 00:16:51.083 --> 00:16:55.259 where we're testing the vertical landing portion of the flight, 00:16:55.259 --> 00:16:58.008 the sort of terminal portion which is quite tricky. 00:16:58.008 --> 00:17:01.044 And we've had some good tests. NOTE Paragraph 00:17:01.044 --> 00:17:03.105 CA: Can we see that?EM: Yeah. 00:17:03.105 --> 00:17:04.748 So that's just to give a sense of scale. 00:17:04.748 --> 00:17:06.188 We dressed a cowboy as Johnny Cash 00:17:06.188 --> 00:17:10.043 and bolted the mannequin to the rocket. (Laughter) NOTE Paragraph 00:17:10.043 --> 00:17:11.995 CA: All right, let's see that video then, 00:17:11.995 --> 00:17:14.026 because this is actually amazing when you think about it. 00:17:14.026 --> 00:17:19.733 You've never seen this before. A rocket blasting off and then -- NOTE Paragraph 00:17:19.733 --> 00:17:21.651 EM: Yeah, so that rocket is about the size 00:17:21.651 --> 00:17:24.277 of a 12-story building. 00:17:24.277 --> 00:17:30.247 (Rocket launch) 00:17:35.098 --> 00:17:39.071 So now it's hovering at about 40 meters, 00:17:39.071 --> 00:17:40.947 and it's constantly adjusting 00:17:40.947 --> 00:17:43.908 the angle, the pitch and yaw of the main engine, 00:17:43.908 --> 00:17:47.539 and maintaining roll with cold gas thrusters. NOTE Paragraph 00:17:54.046 --> 00:18:00.359 CA: How cool is that? (Applause) 00:18:00.359 --> 00:18:05.033 Elon, how have you done this? 00:18:05.033 --> 00:18:10.347 These projects are so -- Paypal, SolarCity, 00:18:10.347 --> 00:18:13.025 Tesla, SpaceX, they're so spectacularly different, 00:18:13.025 --> 00:18:15.610 they're such ambitious projects at scale. 00:18:15.610 --> 00:18:18.074 How on Earth has one person 00:18:18.074 --> 00:18:20.549 been able to innovate in this way? 00:18:20.549 --> 00:18:22.386 What is it about you? NOTE Paragraph 00:18:22.386 --> 00:18:27.782 EM: I don't know, actually. 00:18:27.782 --> 00:18:30.022 I don't have a good answer for you. 00:18:30.022 --> 00:18:33.657 I work a lot. I mean, a lot. NOTE Paragraph 00:18:33.657 --> 00:18:35.970 CA: Well, I have a theory.EM: Okay. All right. NOTE Paragraph 00:18:35.970 --> 00:18:39.534 CA: My theory is that you 00:18:39.534 --> 00:18:43.690 have an ability to think at a system level of design 00:18:43.690 --> 00:18:47.333 that pulls together design, technology and business, 00:18:47.333 --> 00:18:50.809 so if TED was TBD, design, technology and business, 00:18:50.809 --> 00:18:53.306 into one package, 00:18:53.306 --> 00:18:55.665 synthesize it in a way that very few people can and -- 00:18:55.665 --> 00:18:59.759 and this is the critical thing -- feel so damn confident 00:18:59.759 --> 00:19:04.375 in that clicked-together package that you take crazy risks. 00:19:04.375 --> 00:19:09.254 You bet your fortune on it, and you seem to have done that multiple times. 00:19:09.254 --> 00:19:11.351 I mean, almost no one can do that. 00:19:11.351 --> 00:19:14.623 Is that -- could we have some of that secret sauce? 00:19:14.623 --> 00:19:18.047 Can we put it into our education system? Can someone learn from you? 00:19:18.047 --> 00:19:19.786 It is truly amazing what you've done. NOTE Paragraph 00:19:19.786 --> 00:19:21.795 EM: Well, thanks. Thank you. 00:19:21.795 --> 00:19:26.605 Well, I do think there's a good framework for thinking. 00:19:26.605 --> 00:19:29.229 It is physics. You know, the sort of first principles reasoning. 00:19:29.229 --> 00:19:33.967 Generally I think there are -- what I mean by that is, 00:19:33.983 --> 00:19:37.358 boil things down to their fundamental truths 00:19:37.358 --> 00:19:38.749 and reason up from there, 00:19:38.749 --> 00:19:41.335 as opposed to reasoning by analogy. 00:19:41.335 --> 00:19:43.549 Through most of our life, we get through life 00:19:43.549 --> 00:19:44.637 by reasoning by analogy, 00:19:44.637 --> 00:19:48.175 which essentially means copying what other people do with slight variations. 00:19:48.175 --> 00:19:49.655 And you have to do that. 00:19:49.655 --> 00:19:54.229 Otherwise, mentally, you wouldn't be able to get through the day. 00:19:54.229 --> 00:19:56.373 But when you want to do something new, 00:19:56.373 --> 00:20:00.105 you have to apply the physics approach. 00:20:00.105 --> 00:20:02.353 Physics is really figuring out how to discover 00:20:02.353 --> 00:20:04.998 new things that are counterintuitive, like quantum mechanics. 00:20:04.998 --> 00:20:06.901 It's really counterintuitive. 00:20:06.901 --> 00:20:09.422 So I think that's an important thing to do, 00:20:09.422 --> 00:20:13.980 and then also to really pay attention to negative feedback, 00:20:13.980 --> 00:20:16.101 and solicit it, particularly from friends. 00:20:16.101 --> 00:20:19.567 This may sound like simple advice, 00:20:19.567 --> 00:20:21.989 but hardly anyone does that, 00:20:21.989 --> 00:20:24.341 and it's incredibly helpful. NOTE Paragraph 00:20:24.341 --> 00:20:27.703 CA: Boys and girls watching, study physics. 00:20:27.703 --> 00:20:28.987 Learn from this man. 00:20:28.987 --> 00:20:32.477 Elon Musk, I wish we had all day, but thank you so much for coming to TED. NOTE Paragraph 00:20:32.477 --> 00:20:35.887 EM: Thank you. CA: That was awesome. That was really, really cool. 00:20:35.887 --> 00:20:38.148 Look at that. (Applause) NOTE Paragraph 00:20:38.148 --> 00:20:42.975 Just take a bow. That was fantastic. 00:20:42.975 --> 00:20:44.436 Thank you so much.