1 00:00:00,354 --> 00:00:03,486 Chris Anderson: Elon, what kind of crazy dream 2 00:00:03,486 --> 00:00:05,642 would persuade you to think of trying 3 00:00:05,642 --> 00:00:09,000 to take on the auto industry and build an all-electric car? 4 00:00:09,000 --> 00:00:12,402 Elon Musk: Well, it goes back to when I was in university. 5 00:00:12,402 --> 00:00:14,554 I thought about, what are the problems that are most likely 6 00:00:14,554 --> 00:00:17,626 to affect the future of the world or the future of humanity? 7 00:00:17,626 --> 00:00:21,118 I think it's extremely important that we have sustainable transport 8 00:00:21,118 --> 00:00:23,477 and sustainable energy production. 9 00:00:23,477 --> 00:00:25,522 That sort of overall sustainable energy problem 10 00:00:25,522 --> 00:00:28,021 is the biggest problem that we have to solve this century, 11 00:00:28,021 --> 00:00:30,226 independent of environmental concerns. 12 00:00:30,226 --> 00:00:33,143 In fact, even if producing CO2 was good for the environment, 13 00:00:33,143 --> 00:00:36,223 given that we're going to run out of hydrocarbons, 14 00:00:36,223 --> 00:00:40,278 we need to find some sustainable means of operating. 15 00:00:40,278 --> 00:00:44,288 CA: Most of American electricity comes from 16 00:00:44,288 --> 00:00:45,950 burning fossil fuels. 17 00:00:45,950 --> 00:00:50,565 How can an electric car that plugs into that electricity help? 18 00:00:50,565 --> 00:00:53,524 EM: Right. There's two elements to that answer. 19 00:00:53,524 --> 00:00:56,484 One is that, even if you take the same source fuel 20 00:00:56,484 --> 00:00:58,473 and produce power at the power plant 21 00:00:58,473 --> 00:01:01,367 and use it to charge electric cars, you're still better off. 22 00:01:01,367 --> 00:01:03,346 So if you take, say, natural gas, 23 00:01:03,346 --> 00:01:05,954 which is the most prevalent hydrocarbon source fuel, 24 00:01:05,954 --> 00:01:08,952 if you burn that in a modern 25 00:01:08,952 --> 00:01:11,147 General Electric natural gas turbine, 26 00:01:11,147 --> 00:01:12,985 you'll get about 60 percent efficiency. 27 00:01:12,985 --> 00:01:15,696 If you put that same fuel in an internal combustion engine car, 28 00:01:15,696 --> 00:01:17,596 you get about 20 percent efficiency. 29 00:01:17,596 --> 00:01:19,176 And the reason is, in the stationary power plant, 30 00:01:19,176 --> 00:01:21,544 you can afford to have something that weighs a lot more, 31 00:01:21,544 --> 00:01:23,259 is voluminous, 32 00:01:23,259 --> 00:01:24,713 and you can take the waste heat 33 00:01:24,713 --> 00:01:26,082 and run a steam turbine and generate 34 00:01:26,082 --> 00:01:27,866 a secondary power source. 35 00:01:27,866 --> 00:01:31,652 So in effect, even after you've taken transmission loss into account and everything, 36 00:01:31,652 --> 00:01:35,056 even using the same source fuel, you're at least twice as better off 37 00:01:35,056 --> 00:01:37,528 charging an electric car, then burning it at the power plant. 38 00:01:37,528 --> 00:01:39,639 CA: That scale delivers efficiency. 39 00:01:39,639 --> 00:01:41,378 EM: Yes, it does. 40 00:01:41,378 --> 00:01:44,396 And then the other point is, we have to have sustainable means 41 00:01:44,396 --> 00:01:46,799 of power generation anyway, electricity generation. 42 00:01:46,799 --> 00:01:49,868 So given that we have to solve sustainable electricity generation, 43 00:01:49,868 --> 00:01:53,333 then it makes sense for us to have electric cars 44 00:01:53,333 --> 00:01:55,908 as the mode of transport. 45 00:01:55,908 --> 00:01:57,343 CA: So we've got some video here 46 00:01:57,343 --> 00:01:59,834 of the Tesla being assembled, 47 00:01:59,834 --> 00:02:02,548 which, if we could play that first video -- 48 00:02:02,548 --> 00:02:07,492 So what is innovative about this process in this vehicle? 49 00:02:07,492 --> 00:02:11,068 EM: Sure. So, in order to accelerate the advent of electric transport, 50 00:02:11,068 --> 00:02:13,138 and I should say that I think, actually, 51 00:02:13,138 --> 00:02:15,596 all modes of transport will become fully electric 52 00:02:15,596 --> 00:02:20,663 with the ironic exception of rockets. 53 00:02:20,663 --> 00:02:23,420 There's just no way around Newton's third law. 54 00:02:23,420 --> 00:02:26,872 The question is how do you accelerate 55 00:02:26,872 --> 00:02:28,452 the advent of electric transport? 56 00:02:28,452 --> 00:02:30,900 And in order to do that for cars, you have to come up with 57 00:02:30,900 --> 00:02:33,227 a really energy efficient car, 58 00:02:33,227 --> 00:02:35,084 so that means making it incredibly light, 59 00:02:35,084 --> 00:02:36,110 and so what you're seeing here 60 00:02:36,110 --> 00:02:38,856 is the only all-aluminum body and chassis car 61 00:02:38,856 --> 00:02:40,442 made in North America. 62 00:02:40,442 --> 00:02:43,130 In fact, we applied a lot of rocket design techniques 63 00:02:43,130 --> 00:02:46,747 to make the car light despite having a very large battery pack. 64 00:02:46,747 --> 00:02:48,907 And then it also has the lowest drag coefficient 65 00:02:48,907 --> 00:02:50,275 of any car of its size. 66 00:02:50,275 --> 00:02:53,940 So as a result, the energy usage is very low, 67 00:02:53,940 --> 00:02:56,156 and it has the most advanced battery pack, 68 00:02:56,156 --> 00:02:58,740 and that's what gives it the range that's competitive, 69 00:02:58,740 --> 00:03:01,679 so you can actually have on the order of a 250-mile range. 70 00:03:01,679 --> 00:03:05,268 CA: I mean, those battery packs are incredibly heavy, 71 00:03:05,268 --> 00:03:08,539 but you think the math can still work out intelligently -- 72 00:03:08,539 --> 00:03:10,675 by combining light body, heavy battery, 73 00:03:10,675 --> 00:03:12,948 you can still gain spectacular efficiency. 74 00:03:12,948 --> 00:03:14,780 EM: Exactly. The rest of the car has to be very light 75 00:03:14,780 --> 00:03:16,541 to offset the mass of the pack, 76 00:03:16,541 --> 00:03:19,570 and then you have to have a low drag coefficient so that you have good highway range. 77 00:03:19,570 --> 00:03:23,295 And in fact, customers of the Model S 78 00:03:23,295 --> 00:03:24,374 are sort of competing with each other 79 00:03:24,374 --> 00:03:27,393 to try to get the highest possible range. 80 00:03:27,393 --> 00:03:30,923 I think somebody recently got 420 miles out of a single charge. 81 00:03:30,923 --> 00:03:34,011 CA: Bruno Bowden, who's here, did that, 82 00:03:34,011 --> 00:03:36,601 broke the world record.EM: Congratulations. 83 00:03:36,601 --> 00:03:38,213 CA: That was the good news. The bad news was that 84 00:03:38,213 --> 00:03:41,027 to do it, he had to drive at 18 miles an hour constant speed 85 00:03:41,027 --> 00:03:44,939 and got pulled over by the cops. (Laughter) 86 00:03:44,939 --> 00:03:48,829 EM: I mean, you can certainly drive -- 87 00:03:48,829 --> 00:03:51,467 if you drive it 65 miles an hour, 88 00:03:51,467 --> 00:03:53,431 under normal conditions, 89 00:03:53,431 --> 00:03:55,315 250 miles is a reasonable number. 90 00:03:55,315 --> 00:03:56,453 CA: Let's show that second video 91 00:03:56,453 --> 00:03:59,299 showing the Tesla in action on ice. 92 00:03:59,299 --> 00:04:01,967 Not at all a dig at The New York Times, this, by the way. 93 00:04:01,967 --> 00:04:04,382 What is the most surprising thing about the experience 94 00:04:04,382 --> 00:04:05,890 of driving the car? 95 00:04:05,890 --> 00:04:07,368 EM: In creating an electric car, 96 00:04:07,368 --> 00:04:09,766 the responsiveness of the car is really incredible. 97 00:04:09,766 --> 00:04:12,453 So we wanted really to have people feel as though 98 00:04:12,453 --> 00:04:14,556 they've almost got to mind meld with the car, 99 00:04:14,556 --> 00:04:17,730 so you just feel like you and the car are kind of one, 100 00:04:17,730 --> 00:04:21,776 and as you corner and accelerate, it just happens, 101 00:04:21,776 --> 00:04:23,610 like the car has ESP. 102 00:04:23,610 --> 00:04:26,106 You can do that with an electric car because of its responsiveness. 103 00:04:26,106 --> 00:04:28,233 You can't do that with a gasoline car. 104 00:04:28,233 --> 00:04:30,215 I think that's really a profound difference, 105 00:04:30,215 --> 00:04:33,002 and people only experience that when they have a test drive. 106 00:04:33,002 --> 00:04:37,296 CA: I mean, this is a beautiful but expensive car. 107 00:04:37,296 --> 00:04:40,871 Is there a road map where this becomes 108 00:04:40,871 --> 00:04:42,450 a mass-market vehicle? 109 00:04:42,450 --> 00:04:45,010 EM: Yeah. The goal of Tesla has always been 110 00:04:45,010 --> 00:04:47,282 to have a sort of three-step process, 111 00:04:47,282 --> 00:04:51,048 where version one was an expensive car at low volume, 112 00:04:51,048 --> 00:04:54,113 version two is medium priced and medium volume, 113 00:04:54,113 --> 00:04:56,402 and then version three would be low price, high volume. 114 00:04:56,402 --> 00:04:58,085 So we're at step two at this point. 115 00:04:58,085 --> 00:05:01,035 So we had a $100,000 sports car, which was the Roadster. 116 00:05:01,035 --> 00:05:04,034 Then we've got the Model S, which starts at around 50,000 dollars. 117 00:05:04,034 --> 00:05:06,138 And our third generation car, which should hopefully 118 00:05:06,138 --> 00:05:07,867 be out in about three or four years 119 00:05:07,867 --> 00:05:10,522 will be a $30,000 car. 120 00:05:10,522 --> 00:05:13,004 But whenever you've got really new technology, 121 00:05:13,004 --> 00:05:15,098 it generally takes about three major versions 122 00:05:15,098 --> 00:05:18,318 in order to make it a compelling mass-market product. 123 00:05:18,318 --> 00:05:21,042 And so I think we're making progress in that direction, 124 00:05:21,042 --> 00:05:23,314 and I feel confident that we'll get there. 125 00:05:23,314 --> 00:05:25,223 CA: I mean, right now, if you've got a short commute, 126 00:05:25,223 --> 00:05:28,971 you can drive, you can get back, you can charge it at home. 127 00:05:28,971 --> 00:05:33,218 There isn't a huge nationwide network of charging stations now that are fast. 128 00:05:33,218 --> 00:05:36,058 Do you see that coming, really, truly, 129 00:05:36,058 --> 00:05:38,311 or just on a few key routes? 130 00:05:38,311 --> 00:05:41,186 EM: There actually are far more charging stations 131 00:05:41,186 --> 00:05:43,411 than people realize, 132 00:05:43,411 --> 00:05:45,770 and at Tesla we developed something 133 00:05:45,770 --> 00:05:47,978 called a Supercharging technology, 134 00:05:47,978 --> 00:05:51,290 and we're offering that if you buy a Model S 135 00:05:51,290 --> 00:05:52,755 for free, forever. 136 00:05:52,755 --> 00:05:55,410 And so this is something that maybe a lot of people don't realize. 137 00:05:55,410 --> 00:05:58,240 We actually have California and Nevada covered, 138 00:05:58,240 --> 00:06:00,514 and we've got the Eastern seaboard 139 00:06:00,514 --> 00:06:02,766 from Boston to D.C. covered. 140 00:06:02,766 --> 00:06:04,148 By the end of this year, you'll be able to drive 141 00:06:04,148 --> 00:06:06,291 from L.A. to New York 142 00:06:06,291 --> 00:06:07,893 just using the Supercharger network, 143 00:06:07,893 --> 00:06:12,110 which charges at five times the rate of anything else. 144 00:06:12,110 --> 00:06:16,536 And the key thing is to have a ratio of drive to stop, 145 00:06:16,536 --> 00:06:19,535 to stop time, of about six or seven. 146 00:06:19,535 --> 00:06:21,765 So if you drive for three hours, 147 00:06:21,765 --> 00:06:23,403 you want to stop for 20 or 30 minutes, 148 00:06:23,403 --> 00:06:25,900 because that's normally what people will stop for. 149 00:06:25,900 --> 00:06:28,020 So if you start a trip at 9 a.m., 150 00:06:28,020 --> 00:06:30,558 by noon you want to stop to have a bite to eat, 151 00:06:30,558 --> 00:06:32,297 hit the restroom, coffee, and keep going. 152 00:06:32,297 --> 00:06:35,654 CA: So your proposition to consumers is, for the full charge, it could take an hour. 153 00:06:35,654 --> 00:06:39,630 So it's common -- don't expect to be out of here in 10 minutes. 154 00:06:39,630 --> 00:06:41,597 Wait for an hour, but the good news is, 155 00:06:41,597 --> 00:06:43,036 you're helping save the planet, 156 00:06:43,036 --> 00:06:45,729 and by the way, the electricity is free. You don't pay anything. 157 00:06:45,729 --> 00:06:47,593 EM: Actually, what we're expecting is for people 158 00:06:47,593 --> 00:06:51,118 to stop for about 20 to 30 minutes, not for an hour. 159 00:06:51,118 --> 00:06:58,846 It's actually better to drive for about maybe 160, 170 miles 160 00:06:58,846 --> 00:07:00,944 and then stop for half an hour 161 00:07:00,944 --> 00:07:02,309 and then keep going. 162 00:07:02,309 --> 00:07:05,591 That's the natural cadence of a trip. 163 00:07:05,591 --> 00:07:09,972 CA: All right. So this is only one string to your energy bow. 164 00:07:09,972 --> 00:07:12,614 You've been working on this solar company SolarCity. 165 00:07:12,614 --> 00:07:15,126 What's unusual about that? 166 00:07:15,126 --> 00:07:17,486 EM: Well, as I mentioned earlier, 167 00:07:17,486 --> 00:07:21,126 we have to have sustainable electricity production 168 00:07:21,126 --> 00:07:22,774 as well as consumption, 169 00:07:22,774 --> 00:07:26,596 so I'm quite confident that the primary means 170 00:07:26,596 --> 00:07:29,077 of power generation will be solar. 171 00:07:29,077 --> 00:07:31,412 I mean, it's really indirect fusion, is what it is. 172 00:07:31,412 --> 00:07:34,646 We've got this giant fusion generator in the sky called the sun, 173 00:07:34,646 --> 00:07:37,538 and we just need to tap a little bit of that energy 174 00:07:37,538 --> 00:07:40,414 for purposes of human civilization. 175 00:07:40,414 --> 00:07:42,420 What most people know but don't realize they know 176 00:07:42,420 --> 00:07:45,774 is that the world is almost entirely solar-powered already. 177 00:07:45,774 --> 00:07:49,014 If the sun wasn't there, we'd be a frozen ice ball 178 00:07:49,014 --> 00:07:51,176 at three degrees Kelvin, 179 00:07:51,176 --> 00:07:54,974 and the sun powers the entire system of precipitation. 180 00:07:54,974 --> 00:07:57,630 The whole ecosystem is solar-powered. 181 00:07:57,630 --> 00:07:59,981 CA: But in a gallon of gasoline, you have, 182 00:07:59,981 --> 00:08:02,245 effectively, thousands of years of sun power 183 00:08:02,245 --> 00:08:04,310 compressed into a small space, 184 00:08:04,310 --> 00:08:07,289 so it's hard to make the numbers work right now on solar, 185 00:08:07,289 --> 00:08:10,378 and to remotely compete with, for example, natural gas, 186 00:08:10,378 --> 00:08:13,822 fracked natural gas. How are you going to build a business here? 187 00:08:13,822 --> 00:08:17,131 EM: Well actually, I'm confident that solar 188 00:08:17,131 --> 00:08:21,047 will beat everything, hands down, including natural gas. 189 00:08:21,047 --> 00:08:23,434 (Applause)CA: How? 190 00:08:23,434 --> 00:08:27,007 EM: It must, actually. If it doesn't, we're in deep trouble. 191 00:08:27,007 --> 00:08:30,041 CA: But you're not selling solar panels to consumers. 192 00:08:30,041 --> 00:08:31,192 What are you doing? 193 00:08:31,192 --> 00:08:34,440 EM: No, we actually are. You can buy a solar system 194 00:08:34,440 --> 00:08:35,982 or you can lease a solar system. 195 00:08:35,982 --> 00:08:37,972 Most people choose to lease. 196 00:08:37,972 --> 00:08:40,038 And the thing about solar power is that 197 00:08:40,038 --> 00:08:42,789 it doesn't have any feed stock or operational costs, 198 00:08:42,789 --> 00:08:46,014 so once it's installed, it's just there. 199 00:08:46,014 --> 00:08:50,515 It works for decades. It'll work for probably a century. 200 00:08:50,515 --> 00:08:53,453 So therefore, the key thing to do is to get the cost 201 00:08:53,453 --> 00:08:55,428 of that initial installation low, 202 00:08:55,428 --> 00:08:58,063 and then get the cost of the financing low, 203 00:08:58,063 --> 00:09:01,687 because that interest -- those are the two factors that drive the cost of solar. 204 00:09:01,687 --> 00:09:05,103 And we've made huge progress in that direction, 205 00:09:05,103 --> 00:09:08,671 and that's why I'm confident we'll actually beat natural gas. 206 00:09:08,671 --> 00:09:11,448 CA: So your current proposition to consumers is, 207 00:09:11,448 --> 00:09:13,664 don't pay so much up front. 208 00:09:13,664 --> 00:09:16,344 EM: Zero.CA: Pay zero up front. 209 00:09:16,344 --> 00:09:18,983 We will install panels on your roof. 210 00:09:18,983 --> 00:09:22,584 You will then pay, how long is a typical lease? 211 00:09:22,584 --> 00:09:25,828 EM: Typical leases are 20 years, 212 00:09:25,828 --> 00:09:30,491 but the value proposition is, as you're sort of alluding to, quite straightforward. 213 00:09:30,491 --> 00:09:34,641 It's no money down, and your utility bill decreases. 214 00:09:34,641 --> 00:09:36,521 Pretty good deal. 215 00:09:36,521 --> 00:09:38,434 CA: So that seems like a win for the consumer. 216 00:09:38,434 --> 00:09:40,889 No risk, you'll pay less than you're paying now. 217 00:09:40,889 --> 00:09:43,284 For you, the dream here then is that -- 218 00:09:43,284 --> 00:09:48,059 I mean, who owns the electricity from those panels for the longer term? 219 00:09:48,059 --> 00:09:51,241 I mean, how do you, the company, benefit? 220 00:09:51,241 --> 00:09:54,783 EM: Well, essentially, 221 00:09:54,783 --> 00:10:00,670 SolarCity raises a chunk of capital 222 00:10:00,670 --> 00:10:04,340 from say, a company or a bank. 223 00:10:04,340 --> 00:10:06,553 Google is one of our big partners here. 224 00:10:06,553 --> 00:10:08,977 And they have an expected return on that capital. 225 00:10:08,977 --> 00:10:13,363 With that capital, SolarCity purchases and installs the panel on the roof 226 00:10:13,363 --> 00:10:16,809 and then charges the homeowner or business owner 227 00:10:16,809 --> 00:10:20,519 a monthly lease payment, which is less than the utility bill. 228 00:10:20,519 --> 00:10:24,032 CA: But you yourself get a long-term commercial benefit from that power. 229 00:10:24,032 --> 00:10:27,796 You're kind of building a new type of distributed utility. 230 00:10:27,796 --> 00:10:29,471 EM: Exactly. What it amounts to 231 00:10:29,471 --> 00:10:32,812 is a giant distributed utility. 232 00:10:32,812 --> 00:10:35,695 I think it's a good thing, because utilities 233 00:10:35,695 --> 00:10:38,532 have been this monopoly, and people haven't had any choice. 234 00:10:38,532 --> 00:10:40,627 So effectively it's the first time 235 00:10:40,627 --> 00:10:43,892 there's been competition for this monopoly, 236 00:10:43,892 --> 00:10:46,892 because the utilities have been the only ones 237 00:10:46,892 --> 00:10:49,539 that owned those power distribution lines, but now it's on your roof. 238 00:10:49,539 --> 00:10:51,430 So I think it's actually very empowering 239 00:10:51,430 --> 00:10:54,067 for homeowners and businesses. 240 00:10:54,067 --> 00:10:55,425 CA: And you really picture a future 241 00:10:55,425 --> 00:10:59,344 where a majority of power in America, 242 00:10:59,344 --> 00:11:04,046 within a decade or two, or within your lifetime, it goes solar? 243 00:11:04,046 --> 00:11:09,844 EM: I'm extremely confident that solar will be at least a plurality of power, 244 00:11:09,844 --> 00:11:11,956 and most likely a majority, 245 00:11:11,956 --> 00:11:17,216 and I predict it will be a plurality in less than 20 years. 246 00:11:17,216 --> 00:11:20,684 I made that bet with someone —CA: Definition of plurality is? 247 00:11:20,684 --> 00:11:22,430 EM: More from solar than any other source. 248 00:11:22,430 --> 00:11:26,188 CA: Ah. Who did you make the bet with? 249 00:11:26,188 --> 00:11:29,588 EM: With a friend who will remain nameless. 250 00:11:29,588 --> 00:11:33,908 CA: Just between us. (Laughter) 251 00:11:33,908 --> 00:11:36,700 EM: I made that bet, I think, two or three years ago, 252 00:11:36,700 --> 00:11:38,503 so in roughly 18 years, 253 00:11:38,503 --> 00:11:42,060 I think we'll see more power from solar than any other source. 254 00:11:42,060 --> 00:11:43,829 CA: All right, so let's go back to another bet that you made 255 00:11:43,829 --> 00:11:46,045 with yourself, I guess, a kind of crazy bet. 256 00:11:46,045 --> 00:11:50,822 You'd made some money from the sale of PayPal. 257 00:11:50,822 --> 00:11:53,258 You decided to build a space company. 258 00:11:53,258 --> 00:11:55,331 Why on Earth would someone do that? 259 00:11:55,331 --> 00:11:57,511 (Laughter) 260 00:11:57,511 --> 00:12:00,324 EM: I got that question a lot, that's true. 261 00:12:00,324 --> 00:12:02,583 People would say, "Did you hear the joke about the guy 262 00:12:02,583 --> 00:12:05,484 who made a small fortune in the space industry?" 263 00:12:05,484 --> 00:12:09,732 Obviously, "He started with a large one," is the punchline. 264 00:12:09,732 --> 00:12:12,278 And so I tell people, well, I was trying to figure out 265 00:12:12,278 --> 00:12:14,565 the fastest way to turn a large fortune into a small one. 266 00:12:14,565 --> 00:12:17,606 And they'd look at me, like, "Is he serious?" 267 00:12:17,606 --> 00:12:22,668 CA: And strangely, you were. So what happened? 268 00:12:22,668 --> 00:12:25,850 EM: It was a close call. Things almost didn't work out. 269 00:12:25,850 --> 00:12:27,600 We came very close to failure, 270 00:12:27,600 --> 00:12:30,734 but we managed to get through that point in 2008. 271 00:12:30,734 --> 00:12:36,884 The goal of SpaceX is to try to advance rocket technology, 272 00:12:36,884 --> 00:12:38,838 and in particular to try to crack a problem 273 00:12:38,838 --> 00:12:40,422 that I think is vital 274 00:12:40,422 --> 00:12:42,449 for humanity to become a space-faring civilization, 275 00:12:42,449 --> 00:12:47,333 which is to have a rapidly and fully reusable rocket. 276 00:12:47,333 --> 00:12:50,424 CA: Would humanity become a space-faring civilization? 277 00:12:50,424 --> 00:12:54,438 So that was a dream of yours, in a way, from a young age? 278 00:12:54,438 --> 00:12:57,817 You've dreamed of Mars and beyond? 279 00:12:57,817 --> 00:12:59,953 EM: I did build rockets when I was a kid, 280 00:12:59,953 --> 00:13:01,349 but I didn't think I'd be involved in this. 281 00:13:01,349 --> 00:13:03,334 It was really more from the standpoint of 282 00:13:03,334 --> 00:13:07,204 what are the things that need to happen in order for 283 00:13:07,204 --> 00:13:10,024 the future to be an exciting and inspiring one? 284 00:13:10,024 --> 00:13:14,113 And I really think there's a fundamental difference, 285 00:13:14,113 --> 00:13:15,509 if you sort of look into the future, 286 00:13:15,509 --> 00:13:18,966 between a humanity that is a space-faring civilization, 287 00:13:18,966 --> 00:13:22,081 that's out there exploring the stars, on multiple planets, 288 00:13:22,081 --> 00:13:24,293 and I think that's really exciting, 289 00:13:24,293 --> 00:13:27,464 compared with one where we are forever confined to Earth 290 00:13:27,464 --> 00:13:29,752 until some eventual extinction event. 291 00:13:29,752 --> 00:13:31,504 CA: So you've somehow slashed the cost of building 292 00:13:31,504 --> 00:13:34,848 a rocket by 75 percent, depending on how you calculate it. 293 00:13:34,848 --> 00:13:37,127 How on Earth have you done that? 294 00:13:37,127 --> 00:13:40,238 NASA has been doing this for years. How have you done this? 295 00:13:40,238 --> 00:13:42,639 EM: Well, we've made significant advances 296 00:13:42,639 --> 00:13:45,402 in the technology of the airframe, the engines, 297 00:13:45,402 --> 00:13:48,623 the electronics and the launch operation. 298 00:13:48,623 --> 00:13:51,344 There's a long list of innovations 299 00:13:51,344 --> 00:13:53,512 that we've come up with there 300 00:13:53,512 --> 00:13:59,187 that are a little difficult to communicate in this talk, but -- 301 00:13:59,187 --> 00:14:02,600 CA: Not least because you could still get copied, right? 302 00:14:02,600 --> 00:14:05,215 You haven't patented this stuff. It's really interesting to me. 303 00:14:05,215 --> 00:14:07,455 EM: No, we don't patent.CA: You didn't patent because you think it's 304 00:14:07,455 --> 00:14:10,203 more dangerous to patent than not to patent. 305 00:14:10,203 --> 00:14:12,899 EM: Since our primary competitors are national governments, 306 00:14:12,899 --> 00:14:17,368 the enforceability of patents is questionable.(Laughter) (Applause) 307 00:14:17,368 --> 00:14:20,787 CA: That's really, really interesting. 308 00:14:20,787 --> 00:14:23,416 But the big innovation is still ahead, 309 00:14:23,416 --> 00:14:26,155 and you're working on it now. Tell us about this. 310 00:14:26,155 --> 00:14:27,844 EM: Right, so the big innovation— 311 00:14:27,844 --> 00:14:32,081 CA: In fact, let's roll that video and you can talk us through it, what's happening here. 312 00:14:32,081 --> 00:14:36,155 EM: Absolutely. So the thing about rockets is that 313 00:14:36,155 --> 00:14:37,697 they're all expendable. 314 00:14:37,697 --> 00:14:39,959 All rockets that fly today are fully expendable. 315 00:14:39,959 --> 00:14:42,093 The space shuttle was an attempt at a reusable rocket, 316 00:14:42,093 --> 00:14:45,019 but even the main tank of the space shuttle was thrown away every time, 317 00:14:45,019 --> 00:14:47,115 and the parts that were reusable 318 00:14:47,115 --> 00:14:52,171 took a 10,000-person group nine months to refurbish for flight. 319 00:14:52,171 --> 00:14:55,757 So the space shuttle ended up costing a billion dollars per flight. 320 00:14:55,757 --> 00:14:57,939 Obviously that doesn't work very well for — 321 00:14:57,939 --> 00:15:01,159 CA: What just happened there? We just saw something land? 322 00:15:01,159 --> 00:15:05,490 EM: That's right. So it's important that the rocket stages 323 00:15:05,490 --> 00:15:08,855 be able to come back, to be able to return to the launch site 324 00:15:08,855 --> 00:15:11,872 and be ready to launch again within a matter of hours. 325 00:15:11,872 --> 00:15:16,555 CA: Wow. Reusable rockets.EM: Yes. (Applause) 326 00:15:16,555 --> 00:15:19,763 And so what a lot of people don't realize is, 327 00:15:19,763 --> 00:15:22,361 the cost of the fuel, of the propellant, is very small. 328 00:15:22,361 --> 00:15:24,065 It's much like on a jet. 329 00:15:24,065 --> 00:15:27,581 So the cost of the propellant is about .3 percent 330 00:15:27,581 --> 00:15:29,483 of the cost of the rocket. 331 00:15:29,483 --> 00:15:31,635 So it's possible to achieve, let's say, 332 00:15:31,635 --> 00:15:34,475 roughly 100-fold improvement in the cost of spaceflight 333 00:15:34,475 --> 00:15:37,555 if you can effectively reuse the rocket. 334 00:15:37,555 --> 00:15:38,995 That's why it's so important. 335 00:15:38,995 --> 00:15:41,217 Every mode of transport that we use, 336 00:15:41,217 --> 00:15:44,147 whether it's planes, trains, automobiles, bikes, horses, 337 00:15:44,147 --> 00:15:46,483 is reusable, but not rockets. 338 00:15:46,483 --> 00:15:49,771 So we must solve this problem in order to become a space-faring civilization. 339 00:15:49,771 --> 00:15:51,238 CA: You asked me the question earlier 340 00:15:51,238 --> 00:15:55,033 of how popular traveling on cruises would be 341 00:15:55,033 --> 00:16:01,168 if you had to burn your ships afterward.EM: Certain cruises are apparently highly problematic. 342 00:16:01,168 --> 00:16:03,363 CA: Definitely more expensive. 343 00:16:03,363 --> 00:16:07,334 So that's potentially absolutely disruptive technology, 344 00:16:07,334 --> 00:16:11,507 and, I guess, paves the way for your dream to actually take, 345 00:16:11,507 --> 00:16:15,304 at some point, to take humanity to Mars at scale. 346 00:16:15,304 --> 00:16:17,586 You'd like to see a colony on Mars. 347 00:16:17,601 --> 00:16:21,138 EM: Yeah, exactly. SpaceX, or some combination 348 00:16:21,138 --> 00:16:24,171 of companies and governments, needs to make progress 349 00:16:24,171 --> 00:16:27,130 in the direction of making life multi-planetary, 350 00:16:27,130 --> 00:16:30,762 of establishing a base on another planet, 351 00:16:30,762 --> 00:16:33,107 on Mars -- being the only realistic option -- 352 00:16:33,107 --> 00:16:34,489 and then building that base up 353 00:16:34,489 --> 00:16:37,438 until we're a true multi-planet species. 354 00:16:37,438 --> 00:16:40,411 CA: So progress on this "let's make it reusable," 355 00:16:40,411 --> 00:16:44,230 how is that going? That was just a simulation video we saw. 356 00:16:44,230 --> 00:16:45,335 How's it going? 357 00:16:45,335 --> 00:16:48,499 EM: We're actually, we've been making some good progress recently 358 00:16:48,499 --> 00:16:51,083 with something we call the Grasshopper Test Project, 359 00:16:51,083 --> 00:16:55,259 where we're testing the vertical landing portion of the flight, 360 00:16:55,259 --> 00:16:58,008 the sort of terminal portion which is quite tricky. 361 00:16:58,008 --> 00:17:01,044 And we've had some good tests. 362 00:17:01,044 --> 00:17:03,105 CA: Can we see that?EM: Yeah. 363 00:17:03,105 --> 00:17:04,748 So that's just to give a sense of scale. 364 00:17:04,748 --> 00:17:06,188 We dressed a cowboy as Johnny Cash 365 00:17:06,188 --> 00:17:10,043 and bolted the mannequin to the rocket. (Laughter) 366 00:17:10,043 --> 00:17:11,995 CA: All right, let's see that video then, 367 00:17:11,995 --> 00:17:14,026 because this is actually amazing when you think about it. 368 00:17:14,026 --> 00:17:19,733 You've never seen this before. A rocket blasting off and then -- 369 00:17:19,733 --> 00:17:21,651 EM: Yeah, so that rocket is about the size 370 00:17:21,651 --> 00:17:24,277 of a 12-story building. 371 00:17:24,277 --> 00:17:30,247 (Rocket launch) 372 00:17:35,098 --> 00:17:39,071 So now it's hovering at about 40 meters, 373 00:17:39,071 --> 00:17:40,947 and it's constantly adjusting 374 00:17:40,947 --> 00:17:43,908 the angle, the pitch and yaw of the main engine, 375 00:17:43,908 --> 00:17:47,539 and maintaining roll with cold gas thrusters. 376 00:17:54,046 --> 00:18:00,359 CA: How cool is that? (Applause) 377 00:18:00,359 --> 00:18:05,033 Elon, how have you done this? 378 00:18:05,033 --> 00:18:10,347 These projects are so -- Paypal, SolarCity, 379 00:18:10,347 --> 00:18:13,025 Tesla, SpaceX, they're so spectacularly different, 380 00:18:13,025 --> 00:18:15,610 they're such ambitious projects at scale. 381 00:18:15,610 --> 00:18:18,074 How on Earth has one person 382 00:18:18,074 --> 00:18:20,549 been able to innovate in this way? 383 00:18:20,549 --> 00:18:22,386 What is it about you? 384 00:18:22,386 --> 00:18:27,782 EM: I don't know, actually. 385 00:18:27,782 --> 00:18:30,022 I don't have a good answer for you. 386 00:18:30,022 --> 00:18:33,657 I work a lot. I mean, a lot. 387 00:18:33,657 --> 00:18:35,970 CA: Well, I have a theory.EM: Okay. All right. 388 00:18:35,970 --> 00:18:39,534 CA: My theory is that you 389 00:18:39,534 --> 00:18:43,690 have an ability to think at a system level of design 390 00:18:43,690 --> 00:18:47,333 that pulls together design, technology and business, 391 00:18:47,333 --> 00:18:50,809 so if TED was TBD, design, technology and business, 392 00:18:50,809 --> 00:18:53,306 into one package, 393 00:18:53,306 --> 00:18:55,665 synthesize it in a way that very few people can and -- 394 00:18:55,665 --> 00:18:59,759 and this is the critical thing -- feel so damn confident 395 00:18:59,759 --> 00:19:04,375 in that clicked-together package that you take crazy risks. 396 00:19:04,375 --> 00:19:09,254 You bet your fortune on it, and you seem to have done that multiple times. 397 00:19:09,254 --> 00:19:11,351 I mean, almost no one can do that. 398 00:19:11,351 --> 00:19:14,623 Is that -- could we have some of that secret sauce? 399 00:19:14,623 --> 00:19:18,047 Can we put it into our education system? Can someone learn from you? 400 00:19:18,047 --> 00:19:19,786 It is truly amazing what you've done. 401 00:19:19,786 --> 00:19:21,795 EM: Well, thanks. Thank you. 402 00:19:21,795 --> 00:19:26,605 Well, I do think there's a good framework for thinking. 403 00:19:26,605 --> 00:19:29,229 It is physics. You know, the sort of first principles reasoning. 404 00:19:29,229 --> 00:19:33,967 Generally I think there are -- what I mean by that is, 405 00:19:33,983 --> 00:19:37,358 boil things down to their fundamental truths 406 00:19:37,358 --> 00:19:38,749 and reason up from there, 407 00:19:38,749 --> 00:19:41,335 as opposed to reasoning by analogy. 408 00:19:41,335 --> 00:19:43,549 Through most of our life, we get through life 409 00:19:43,549 --> 00:19:44,637 by reasoning by analogy, 410 00:19:44,637 --> 00:19:48,175 which essentially means copying what other people do with slight variations. 411 00:19:48,175 --> 00:19:49,655 And you have to do that. 412 00:19:49,655 --> 00:19:54,229 Otherwise, mentally, you wouldn't be able to get through the day. 413 00:19:54,229 --> 00:19:56,373 But when you want to do something new, 414 00:19:56,373 --> 00:20:00,105 you have to apply the physics approach. 415 00:20:00,105 --> 00:20:02,353 Physics is really figuring out how to discover 416 00:20:02,353 --> 00:20:04,998 new things that are counterintuitive, like quantum mechanics. 417 00:20:04,998 --> 00:20:06,901 It's really counterintuitive. 418 00:20:06,901 --> 00:20:09,422 So I think that's an important thing to do, 419 00:20:09,422 --> 00:20:13,980 and then also to really pay attention to negative feedback, 420 00:20:13,980 --> 00:20:16,101 and solicit it, particularly from friends. 421 00:20:16,101 --> 00:20:19,567 This may sound like simple advice, 422 00:20:19,567 --> 00:20:21,989 but hardly anyone does that, 423 00:20:21,989 --> 00:20:24,341 and it's incredibly helpful. 424 00:20:24,341 --> 00:20:27,703 CA: Boys and girls watching, study physics. 425 00:20:27,703 --> 00:20:28,987 Learn from this man. 426 00:20:28,987 --> 00:20:32,477 Elon Musk, I wish we had all day, but thank you so much for coming to TED. 427 00:20:32,477 --> 00:20:35,887 EM: Thank you. CA: That was awesome. That was really, really cool. 428 00:20:35,887 --> 00:20:38,148 Look at that. (Applause) 429 00:20:38,148 --> 00:20:42,975 Just take a bow. That was fantastic. 430 00:20:42,975 --> 00:20:44,436 Thank you so much.