0:00:00.354,0:00:03.486 Chris Anderson: Elon, what kind of crazy dream 0:00:03.486,0:00:05.642 would persuade you to think of trying 0:00:05.642,0:00:09.000 to take on the auto industry and build an all-electric car? 0:00:09.000,0:00:12.402 Elon Musk: Well, it goes back to when I was in university. 0:00:12.402,0:00:14.554 I thought about, what are the problems that are most likely 0:00:14.554,0:00:17.626 to affect the future of the world or the future of humanity? 0:00:17.626,0:00:21.118 I think it's extremely important that we have sustainable transport 0:00:21.118,0:00:23.477 and sustainable energy production. 0:00:23.477,0:00:25.522 That sort of overall sustainable energy problem 0:00:25.522,0:00:28.021 is the biggest problem that we have to solve this century, 0:00:28.021,0:00:30.226 independent of environmental concerns. 0:00:30.226,0:00:33.143 In fact, even if producing CO2 was good for the environment, 0:00:33.143,0:00:36.223 given that we're going to run out of hydrocarbons, 0:00:36.223,0:00:40.278 we need to find some sustainable means of operating. 0:00:40.278,0:00:44.288 CA: Most of American electricity comes from 0:00:44.288,0:00:45.950 burning fossil fuels. 0:00:45.950,0:00:50.565 How can an electric car that plugs into that electricity help? 0:00:50.565,0:00:53.524 EM: Right. There's two elements to that answer. 0:00:53.524,0:00:56.484 One is that, even if you take the same source fuel 0:00:56.484,0:00:58.473 and produce power at the power plant 0:00:58.473,0:01:01.367 and use it to charge electric cars, you're still better off. 0:01:01.367,0:01:03.346 So if you take, say, natural gas, 0:01:03.346,0:01:05.954 which is the most prevalent hydrocarbon source fuel, 0:01:05.954,0:01:08.952 if you burn that in a modern 0:01:08.952,0:01:11.147 General Electric natural gas turbine, 0:01:11.147,0:01:12.985 you'll get about 60 percent efficiency. 0:01:12.985,0:01:15.696 If you put that same fuel in an internal combustion engine car, 0:01:15.696,0:01:17.596 you get about 20 percent efficiency. 0:01:17.596,0:01:19.176 And the reason is, in the stationary power plant, 0:01:19.176,0:01:21.544 you can afford to have something that weighs a lot more, 0:01:21.544,0:01:23.259 is voluminous, 0:01:23.259,0:01:24.713 and you can take the waste heat 0:01:24.713,0:01:26.082 and run a steam turbine and generate 0:01:26.082,0:01:27.866 a secondary power source. 0:01:27.866,0:01:31.652 So in effect, even after you've taken transmission loss into account and everything, 0:01:31.652,0:01:35.056 even using the same source fuel, you're at least twice as better off 0:01:35.056,0:01:37.528 charging an electric car, then burning it at the power plant. 0:01:37.528,0:01:39.639 CA: That scale delivers efficiency. 0:01:39.639,0:01:41.378 EM: Yes, it does. 0:01:41.378,0:01:44.396 And then the other point is, we have to have sustainable means 0:01:44.396,0:01:46.799 of power generation anyway, electricity generation. 0:01:46.799,0:01:49.868 So given that we have to solve sustainable electricity generation, 0:01:49.868,0:01:53.333 then it makes sense for us to have electric cars 0:01:53.333,0:01:55.908 as the mode of transport. 0:01:55.908,0:01:57.343 CA: So we've got some video here 0:01:57.343,0:01:59.834 of the Tesla being assembled, 0:01:59.834,0:02:02.548 which, if we could play that first video -- 0:02:02.548,0:02:07.492 So what is innovative about this process in this vehicle? 0:02:07.492,0:02:11.068 EM: Sure. So, in order to accelerate the advent of electric transport, 0:02:11.068,0:02:13.138 and I should say that I think, actually, 0:02:13.138,0:02:15.596 all modes of transport will become fully electric 0:02:15.596,0:02:20.663 with the ironic exception of rockets. 0:02:20.663,0:02:23.420 There's just no way around Newton's third law. 0:02:23.420,0:02:26.872 The question is how do you accelerate 0:02:26.872,0:02:28.452 the advent of electric transport? 0:02:28.452,0:02:30.900 And in order to do that for cars, you have to come up with 0:02:30.900,0:02:33.227 a really energy efficient car, 0:02:33.227,0:02:35.084 so that means making it incredibly light, 0:02:35.084,0:02:36.110 and so what you're seeing here 0:02:36.110,0:02:38.856 is the only all-aluminum body and chassis car 0:02:38.856,0:02:40.442 made in North America. 0:02:40.442,0:02:43.130 In fact, we applied a lot of rocket design techniques 0:02:43.130,0:02:46.747 to make the car light despite having a very large battery pack. 0:02:46.747,0:02:48.907 And then it also has the lowest drag coefficient 0:02:48.907,0:02:50.275 of any car of its size. 0:02:50.275,0:02:53.940 So as a result, the energy usage is very low, 0:02:53.940,0:02:56.156 and it has the most advanced battery pack, 0:02:56.156,0:02:58.740 and that's what gives it the range that's competitive, 0:02:58.740,0:03:01.679 so you can actually have on the order of a 250-mile range. 0:03:01.679,0:03:05.268 CA: I mean, those battery packs are incredibly heavy, 0:03:05.268,0:03:08.539 but you think the math can still work out intelligently -- 0:03:08.539,0:03:10.675 by combining light body, heavy battery, 0:03:10.675,0:03:12.948 you can still gain spectacular efficiency. 0:03:12.948,0:03:14.780 EM: Exactly. The rest of the car has to be very light 0:03:14.780,0:03:16.541 to offset the mass of the pack, 0:03:16.541,0:03:19.570 and then you have to have a low drag coefficient so that you have good highway range. 0:03:19.570,0:03:23.295 And in fact, customers of the Model S 0:03:23.295,0:03:24.374 are sort of competing with each other 0:03:24.374,0:03:27.393 to try to get the highest possible range. 0:03:27.393,0:03:30.923 I think somebody recently got 420 miles out of a single charge. 0:03:30.923,0:03:34.011 CA: Bruno Bowden, who's here, did that, 0:03:34.011,0:03:36.601 broke the world record.EM: Congratulations. 0:03:36.601,0:03:38.213 CA: That was the good news. The bad news was that 0:03:38.213,0:03:41.027 to do it, he had to drive at 18 miles an hour constant speed 0:03:41.027,0:03:44.939 and got pulled over by the cops. (Laughter) 0:03:44.939,0:03:48.829 EM: I mean, you can certainly drive -- 0:03:48.829,0:03:51.467 if you drive it 65 miles an hour, 0:03:51.467,0:03:53.431 under normal conditions, 0:03:53.431,0:03:55.315 250 miles is a reasonable number. 0:03:55.315,0:03:56.453 CA: Let's show that second video 0:03:56.453,0:03:59.299 showing the Tesla in action on ice. 0:03:59.299,0:04:01.967 Not at all a dig at The New York Times, this, by the way. 0:04:01.967,0:04:04.382 What is the most surprising thing about the experience 0:04:04.382,0:04:05.890 of driving the car? 0:04:05.890,0:04:07.368 EM: In creating an electric car, 0:04:07.368,0:04:09.766 the responsiveness of the car is really incredible. 0:04:09.766,0:04:12.453 So we wanted really to have people feel as though 0:04:12.453,0:04:14.556 they've almost got to mind meld with the car, 0:04:14.556,0:04:17.730 so you just feel like you and the car are kind of one, 0:04:17.730,0:04:21.776 and as you corner and accelerate, it just happens, 0:04:21.776,0:04:23.610 like the car has ESP. 0:04:23.610,0:04:26.106 You can do that with an electric car because of its responsiveness. 0:04:26.106,0:04:28.233 You can't do that with a gasoline car. 0:04:28.233,0:04:30.215 I think that's really a profound difference, 0:04:30.215,0:04:33.002 and people only experience that when they have a test drive. 0:04:33.002,0:04:37.296 CA: I mean, this is a beautiful but expensive car. 0:04:37.296,0:04:40.871 Is there a road map where this becomes 0:04:40.871,0:04:42.450 a mass-market vehicle? 0:04:42.450,0:04:45.010 EM: Yeah. The goal of Tesla has always been 0:04:45.010,0:04:47.282 to have a sort of three-step process, 0:04:47.282,0:04:51.048 where version one was an expensive car at low volume, 0:04:51.048,0:04:54.113 version two is medium priced and medium volume, 0:04:54.113,0:04:56.402 and then version three would be low price, high volume. 0:04:56.402,0:04:58.085 So we're at step two at this point. 0:04:58.085,0:05:01.035 So we had a $100,000 sports car, which was the Roadster. 0:05:01.035,0:05:04.034 Then we've got the Model S, which starts at around 50,000 dollars. 0:05:04.034,0:05:06.138 And our third generation car, which should hopefully 0:05:06.138,0:05:07.867 be out in about three or four years 0:05:07.867,0:05:10.522 will be a $30,000 car. 0:05:10.522,0:05:13.004 But whenever you've got really new technology, 0:05:13.004,0:05:15.098 it generally takes about three major versions 0:05:15.098,0:05:18.318 in order to make it a compelling mass-market product. 0:05:18.318,0:05:21.042 And so I think we're making progress in that direction, 0:05:21.042,0:05:23.314 and I feel confident that we'll get there. 0:05:23.314,0:05:25.223 CA: I mean, right now, if you've got a short commute, 0:05:25.223,0:05:28.971 you can drive, you can get back, you can charge it at home. 0:05:28.971,0:05:33.218 There isn't a huge nationwide network of charging stations now that are fast. 0:05:33.218,0:05:36.058 Do you see that coming, really, truly, 0:05:36.058,0:05:38.311 or just on a few key routes? 0:05:38.311,0:05:41.186 EM: There actually are far more charging stations 0:05:41.186,0:05:43.411 than people realize, 0:05:43.411,0:05:45.770 and at Tesla we developed something 0:05:45.770,0:05:47.978 called a Supercharging technology, 0:05:47.978,0:05:51.290 and we're offering that if you buy a Model S 0:05:51.290,0:05:52.755 for free, forever. 0:05:52.755,0:05:55.410 And so this is something that maybe a lot of people don't realize. 0:05:55.410,0:05:58.240 We actually have California and Nevada covered, 0:05:58.240,0:06:00.514 and we've got the Eastern seaboard 0:06:00.514,0:06:02.766 from Boston to D.C. covered. 0:06:02.766,0:06:04.148 By the end of this year, you'll be able to drive 0:06:04.148,0:06:06.291 from L.A. to New York 0:06:06.291,0:06:07.893 just using the Supercharger network, 0:06:07.893,0:06:12.110 which charges at five times the rate of anything else. 0:06:12.110,0:06:16.536 And the key thing is to have a ratio of drive to stop, 0:06:16.536,0:06:19.535 to stop time, of about six or seven. 0:06:19.535,0:06:21.765 So if you drive for three hours, 0:06:21.765,0:06:23.403 you want to stop for 20 or 30 minutes, 0:06:23.403,0:06:25.900 because that's normally what people will stop for. 0:06:25.900,0:06:28.020 So if you start a trip at 9 a.m., 0:06:28.020,0:06:30.558 by noon you want to stop to have a bite to eat, 0:06:30.558,0:06:32.297 hit the restroom, coffee, and keep going. 0:06:32.297,0:06:35.654 CA: So your proposition to consumers is, for the full charge, it could take an hour. 0:06:35.654,0:06:39.630 So it's common -- don't expect to be out of here in 10 minutes. 0:06:39.630,0:06:41.597 Wait for an hour, but the good news is, 0:06:41.597,0:06:43.036 you're helping save the planet, 0:06:43.036,0:06:45.729 and by the way, the electricity is free. You don't pay anything. 0:06:45.729,0:06:47.593 EM: Actually, what we're expecting is for people 0:06:47.593,0:06:51.118 to stop for about 20 to 30 minutes, not for an hour. 0:06:51.118,0:06:58.846 It's actually better to drive for about maybe 160, 170 miles 0:06:58.846,0:07:00.944 and then stop for half an hour 0:07:00.944,0:07:02.309 and then keep going. 0:07:02.309,0:07:05.591 That's the natural cadence of a trip. 0:07:05.591,0:07:09.972 CA: All right. So this is only one string to your energy bow. 0:07:09.972,0:07:12.614 You've been working on this solar company SolarCity. 0:07:12.614,0:07:15.126 What's unusual about that? 0:07:15.126,0:07:17.486 EM: Well, as I mentioned earlier, 0:07:17.486,0:07:21.126 we have to have sustainable electricity production 0:07:21.126,0:07:22.774 as well as consumption, 0:07:22.774,0:07:26.596 so I'm quite confident that the primary means 0:07:26.596,0:07:29.077 of power generation will be solar. 0:07:29.077,0:07:31.412 I mean, it's really indirect fusion, is what it is. 0:07:31.412,0:07:34.646 We've got this giant fusion generator in the sky called the sun, 0:07:34.646,0:07:37.538 and we just need to tap a little bit of that energy 0:07:37.538,0:07:40.414 for purposes of human civilization. 0:07:40.414,0:07:42.420 What most people know but don't realize they know 0:07:42.420,0:07:45.774 is that the world is almost entirely solar-powered already. 0:07:45.774,0:07:49.014 If the sun wasn't there, we'd be a frozen ice ball 0:07:49.014,0:07:51.176 at three degrees Kelvin, 0:07:51.176,0:07:54.974 and the sun powers the entire system of precipitation. 0:07:54.974,0:07:57.630 The whole ecosystem is solar-powered. 0:07:57.630,0:07:59.981 CA: But in a gallon of gasoline, you have, 0:07:59.981,0:08:02.245 effectively, thousands of years of sun power 0:08:02.245,0:08:04.310 compressed into a small space, 0:08:04.310,0:08:07.289 so it's hard to make the numbers work right now on solar, 0:08:07.289,0:08:10.378 and to remotely compete with, for example, natural gas, 0:08:10.378,0:08:13.822 fracked natural gas. How are you going to build a business here? 0:08:13.822,0:08:17.131 EM: Well actually, I'm confident that solar 0:08:17.131,0:08:21.047 will beat everything, hands down, including natural gas. 0:08:21.047,0:08:23.434 (Applause)CA: How? 0:08:23.434,0:08:27.007 EM: It must, actually. If it doesn't, we're in deep trouble. 0:08:27.007,0:08:30.041 CA: But you're not selling solar panels to consumers. 0:08:30.041,0:08:31.192 What are you doing? 0:08:31.192,0:08:34.440 EM: No, we actually are. You can buy a solar system 0:08:34.440,0:08:35.982 or you can lease a solar system. 0:08:35.982,0:08:37.972 Most people choose to lease. 0:08:37.972,0:08:40.038 And the thing about solar power is that 0:08:40.038,0:08:42.789 it doesn't have any feed stock or operational costs, 0:08:42.789,0:08:46.014 so once it's installed, it's just there. 0:08:46.014,0:08:50.515 It works for decades. It'll work for probably a century. 0:08:50.515,0:08:53.453 So therefore, the key thing to do is to get the cost 0:08:53.453,0:08:55.428 of that initial installation low, 0:08:55.428,0:08:58.063 and then get the cost of the financing low, 0:08:58.063,0:09:01.687 because that interest -- those are the two factors that drive the cost of solar. 0:09:01.687,0:09:05.103 And we've made huge progress in that direction, 0:09:05.103,0:09:08.671 and that's why I'm confident we'll actually beat natural gas. 0:09:08.671,0:09:11.448 CA: So your current proposition to consumers is, 0:09:11.448,0:09:13.664 don't pay so much up front. 0:09:13.664,0:09:16.344 EM: Zero.CA: Pay zero up front. 0:09:16.344,0:09:18.983 We will install panels on your roof. 0:09:18.983,0:09:22.584 You will then pay, how long is a typical lease? 0:09:22.584,0:09:25.828 EM: Typical leases are 20 years, 0:09:25.828,0:09:30.491 but the value proposition is, as you're sort of alluding to, quite straightforward. 0:09:30.491,0:09:34.641 It's no money down, and your utility bill decreases. 0:09:34.641,0:09:36.521 Pretty good deal. 0:09:36.521,0:09:38.434 CA: So that seems like a win for the consumer. 0:09:38.434,0:09:40.889 No risk, you'll pay less than you're paying now. 0:09:40.889,0:09:43.284 For you, the dream here then is that -- 0:09:43.284,0:09:48.059 I mean, who owns the electricity from those panels for the longer term? 0:09:48.059,0:09:51.241 I mean, how do you, the company, benefit? 0:09:51.241,0:09:54.783 EM: Well, essentially, 0:09:54.783,0:10:00.670 SolarCity raises a chunk of capital 0:10:00.670,0:10:04.340 from say, a company or a bank. 0:10:04.340,0:10:06.553 Google is one of our big partners here. 0:10:06.553,0:10:08.977 And they have an expected return on that capital. 0:10:08.977,0:10:13.363 With that capital, SolarCity purchases and installs the panel on the roof 0:10:13.363,0:10:16.809 and then charges the homeowner or business owner 0:10:16.809,0:10:20.519 a monthly lease payment, which is less than the utility bill. 0:10:20.519,0:10:24.032 CA: But you yourself get a long-term commercial benefit from that power. 0:10:24.032,0:10:27.796 You're kind of building a new type of distributed utility. 0:10:27.796,0:10:29.471 EM: Exactly. What it amounts to 0:10:29.471,0:10:32.812 is a giant distributed utility. 0:10:32.812,0:10:35.695 I think it's a good thing, because utilities 0:10:35.695,0:10:38.532 have been this monopoly, and people haven't had any choice. 0:10:38.532,0:10:40.627 So effectively it's the first time 0:10:40.627,0:10:43.892 there's been competition for this monopoly, 0:10:43.892,0:10:46.892 because the utilities have been the only ones 0:10:46.892,0:10:49.539 that owned those power distribution lines, but now it's on your roof. 0:10:49.539,0:10:51.430 So I think it's actually very empowering 0:10:51.430,0:10:54.067 for homeowners and businesses. 0:10:54.067,0:10:55.425 CA: And you really picture a future 0:10:55.425,0:10:59.344 where a majority of power in America, 0:10:59.344,0:11:04.046 within a decade or two, or within your lifetime, it goes solar? 0:11:04.046,0:11:09.844 EM: I'm extremely confident that solar will be at least a plurality of power, 0:11:09.844,0:11:11.956 and most likely a majority, 0:11:11.956,0:11:17.216 and I predict it will be a plurality in less than 20 years. 0:11:17.216,0:11:20.684 I made that bet with someone —CA: Definition of plurality is? 0:11:20.684,0:11:22.430 EM: More from solar than any other source. 0:11:22.430,0:11:26.188 CA: Ah. Who did you make the bet with? 0:11:26.188,0:11:29.588 EM: With a friend who will remain nameless. 0:11:29.588,0:11:33.908 CA: Just between us. (Laughter) 0:11:33.908,0:11:36.700 EM: I made that bet, I think, two or three years ago, 0:11:36.700,0:11:38.503 so in roughly 18 years, 0:11:38.503,0:11:42.060 I think we'll see more power from solar than any other source. 0:11:42.060,0:11:43.829 CA: All right, so let's go back to another bet that you made 0:11:43.829,0:11:46.045 with yourself, I guess, a kind of crazy bet. 0:11:46.045,0:11:50.822 You'd made some money from the sale of PayPal. 0:11:50.822,0:11:53.258 You decided to build a space company. 0:11:53.258,0:11:55.331 Why on Earth would someone do that? 0:11:55.331,0:11:57.511 (Laughter) 0:11:57.511,0:12:00.324 EM: I got that question a lot, that's true. 0:12:00.324,0:12:02.583 People would say, "Did you hear the joke about the guy 0:12:02.583,0:12:05.484 who made a small fortune in the space industry?" 0:12:05.484,0:12:09.732 Obviously, "He started with a large one," is the punchline. 0:12:09.732,0:12:12.278 And so I tell people, well, I was trying to figure out 0:12:12.278,0:12:14.565 the fastest way to turn a large fortune into a small one. 0:12:14.565,0:12:17.606 And they'd look at me, like, "Is he serious?" 0:12:17.606,0:12:22.668 CA: And strangely, you were. So what happened? 0:12:22.668,0:12:25.850 EM: It was a close call. Things almost didn't work out. 0:12:25.850,0:12:27.600 We came very close to failure, 0:12:27.600,0:12:30.734 but we managed to get through that point in 2008. 0:12:30.734,0:12:36.884 The goal of SpaceX is to try to advance rocket technology, 0:12:36.884,0:12:38.838 and in particular to try to crack a problem 0:12:38.838,0:12:40.422 that I think is vital 0:12:40.422,0:12:42.449 for humanity to become a space-faring civilization, 0:12:42.449,0:12:47.333 which is to have a rapidly and fully reusable rocket. 0:12:47.333,0:12:50.424 CA: Would humanity become a space-faring civilization? 0:12:50.424,0:12:54.438 So that was a dream of yours, in a way, from a young age? 0:12:54.438,0:12:57.817 You've dreamed of Mars and beyond? 0:12:57.817,0:12:59.953 EM: I did build rockets when I was a kid, 0:12:59.953,0:13:01.349 but I didn't think I'd be involved in this. 0:13:01.349,0:13:03.334 It was really more from the standpoint of 0:13:03.334,0:13:07.204 what are the things that need to happen in order for 0:13:07.204,0:13:10.024 the future to be an exciting and inspiring one? 0:13:10.024,0:13:14.113 And I really think there's a fundamental difference, 0:13:14.113,0:13:15.509 if you sort of look into the future, 0:13:15.509,0:13:18.966 between a humanity that is a space-faring civilization, 0:13:18.966,0:13:22.081 that's out there exploring the stars, on multiple planets, 0:13:22.081,0:13:24.293 and I think that's really exciting, 0:13:24.293,0:13:27.464 compared with one where we are forever confined to Earth 0:13:27.464,0:13:29.752 until some eventual extinction event. 0:13:29.752,0:13:31.504 CA: So you've somehow slashed the cost of building 0:13:31.504,0:13:34.848 a rocket by 75 percent, depending on how you calculate it. 0:13:34.848,0:13:37.127 How on Earth have you done that? 0:13:37.127,0:13:40.238 NASA has been doing this for years. How have you done this? 0:13:40.238,0:13:42.639 EM: Well, we've made significant advances 0:13:42.639,0:13:45.402 in the technology of the airframe, the engines, 0:13:45.402,0:13:48.623 the electronics and the launch operation. 0:13:48.623,0:13:51.344 There's a long list of innovations 0:13:51.344,0:13:53.512 that we've come up with there 0:13:53.512,0:13:59.187 that are a little difficult to communicate in this talk, but -- 0:13:59.187,0:14:02.600 CA: Not least because you could still get copied, right? 0:14:02.600,0:14:05.215 You haven't patented this stuff. It's really interesting to me. 0:14:05.215,0:14:07.455 EM: No, we don't patent.CA: You didn't patent because you think it's 0:14:07.455,0:14:10.203 more dangerous to patent than not to patent. 0:14:10.203,0:14:12.899 EM: Since our primary competitors are national governments, 0:14:12.899,0:14:17.368 the enforceability of patents is questionable.(Laughter) (Applause) 0:14:17.368,0:14:20.787 CA: That's really, really interesting. 0:14:20.787,0:14:23.416 But the big innovation is still ahead, 0:14:23.416,0:14:26.155 and you're working on it now. Tell us about this. 0:14:26.155,0:14:27.844 EM: Right, so the big innovation— 0:14:27.844,0:14:32.081 CA: In fact, let's roll that video and you can talk us through it, what's happening here. 0:14:32.081,0:14:36.155 EM: Absolutely. So the thing about rockets is that 0:14:36.155,0:14:37.697 they're all expendable. 0:14:37.697,0:14:39.959 All rockets that fly today are fully expendable. 0:14:39.959,0:14:42.093 The space shuttle was an attempt at a reusable rocket, 0:14:42.093,0:14:45.019 but even the main tank of the space shuttle was thrown away every time, 0:14:45.019,0:14:47.115 and the parts that were reusable 0:14:47.115,0:14:52.171 took a 10,000-person group nine months to refurbish for flight. 0:14:52.171,0:14:55.757 So the space shuttle ended up costing a billion dollars per flight. 0:14:55.757,0:14:57.939 Obviously that doesn't work very well for — 0:14:57.939,0:15:01.159 CA: What just happened there? We just saw something land? 0:15:01.159,0:15:05.490 EM: That's right. So it's important that the rocket stages 0:15:05.490,0:15:08.855 be able to come back, to be able to return to the launch site 0:15:08.855,0:15:11.872 and be ready to launch again within a matter of hours. 0:15:11.872,0:15:16.555 CA: Wow. Reusable rockets.EM: Yes. (Applause) 0:15:16.555,0:15:19.763 And so what a lot of people don't realize is, 0:15:19.763,0:15:22.361 the cost of the fuel, of the propellant, is very small. 0:15:22.361,0:15:24.065 It's much like on a jet. 0:15:24.065,0:15:27.581 So the cost of the propellant is about .3 percent 0:15:27.581,0:15:29.483 of the cost of the rocket. 0:15:29.483,0:15:31.635 So it's possible to achieve, let's say, 0:15:31.635,0:15:34.475 roughly 100-fold improvement in the cost of spaceflight 0:15:34.475,0:15:37.555 if you can effectively reuse the rocket. 0:15:37.555,0:15:38.995 That's why it's so important. 0:15:38.995,0:15:41.217 Every mode of transport that we use, 0:15:41.217,0:15:44.147 whether it's planes, trains, automobiles, bikes, horses, 0:15:44.147,0:15:46.483 is reusable, but not rockets. 0:15:46.483,0:15:49.771 So we must solve this problem in order to become a space-faring civilization. 0:15:49.771,0:15:51.238 CA: You asked me the question earlier 0:15:51.238,0:15:55.033 of how popular traveling on cruises would be 0:15:55.033,0:16:01.168 if you had to burn your ships afterward.EM: Certain cruises are apparently highly problematic. 0:16:01.168,0:16:03.363 CA: Definitely more expensive. 0:16:03.363,0:16:07.334 So that's potentially absolutely disruptive technology, 0:16:07.334,0:16:11.507 and, I guess, paves the way for your dream to actually take, 0:16:11.507,0:16:15.304 at some point, to take humanity to Mars at scale. 0:16:15.304,0:16:17.586 You'd like to see a colony on Mars. 0:16:17.601,0:16:21.138 EM: Yeah, exactly. SpaceX, or some combination 0:16:21.138,0:16:24.171 of companies and governments, needs to make progress 0:16:24.171,0:16:27.130 in the direction of making life multi-planetary, 0:16:27.130,0:16:30.762 of establishing a base on another planet, 0:16:30.762,0:16:33.107 on Mars -- being the only realistic option -- 0:16:33.107,0:16:34.489 and then building that base up 0:16:34.489,0:16:37.438 until we're a true multi-planet species. 0:16:37.438,0:16:40.411 CA: So progress on this "let's make it reusable," 0:16:40.411,0:16:44.230 how is that going? That was just a simulation video we saw. 0:16:44.230,0:16:45.335 How's it going? 0:16:45.335,0:16:48.499 EM: We're actually, we've been making some good progress recently 0:16:48.499,0:16:51.083 with something we call the Grasshopper Test Project, 0:16:51.083,0:16:55.259 where we're testing the vertical landing portion of the flight, 0:16:55.259,0:16:58.008 the sort of terminal portion which is quite tricky. 0:16:58.008,0:17:01.044 And we've had some good tests. 0:17:01.044,0:17:03.105 CA: Can we see that?EM: Yeah. 0:17:03.105,0:17:04.748 So that's just to give a sense of scale. 0:17:04.748,0:17:06.188 We dressed a cowboy as Johnny Cash 0:17:06.188,0:17:10.043 and bolted the mannequin to the rocket. (Laughter) 0:17:10.043,0:17:11.995 CA: All right, let's see that video then, 0:17:11.995,0:17:14.026 because this is actually amazing when you think about it. 0:17:14.026,0:17:19.733 You've never seen this before. A rocket blasting off and then -- 0:17:19.733,0:17:21.651 EM: Yeah, so that rocket is about the size 0:17:21.651,0:17:24.277 of a 12-story building. 0:17:24.277,0:17:30.247 (Rocket launch) 0:17:35.098,0:17:39.071 So now it's hovering at about 40 meters, 0:17:39.071,0:17:40.947 and it's constantly adjusting 0:17:40.947,0:17:43.908 the angle, the pitch [br]and yaw of the main engine, 0:17:43.908,0:17:47.539 and maintaining roll [br]with cold gas thrusters. 0:17:54.046,0:18:00.359 CA: How cool is that? (Applause) 0:18:00.359,0:18:05.033 Elon, how have you done this? 0:18:05.033,0:18:10.347 These projects are so -- Paypal, SolarCity, 0:18:10.347,0:18:13.025 Tesla, SpaceX, they're so spectacularly different, 0:18:13.025,0:18:15.610 they're such ambitious projects at scale. 0:18:15.610,0:18:18.074 How on Earth has one person 0:18:18.074,0:18:20.549 been able to innovate in this way? 0:18:20.549,0:18:22.386 What is it about you? 0:18:22.386,0:18:27.782 EM: I don't know, actually. 0:18:27.782,0:18:30.022 I don't have a good answer for you. 0:18:30.022,0:18:33.657 I work a lot. I mean, a lot. 0:18:33.657,0:18:35.970 CA: Well, I have a theory.EM: Okay. All right. 0:18:35.970,0:18:39.534 CA: My theory is that you 0:18:39.534,0:18:43.690 have an ability to think at a system level of design 0:18:43.690,0:18:47.333 that pulls together design, technology and business, 0:18:47.333,0:18:50.809 so if TED was TBD, design, technology and business, 0:18:50.809,0:18:53.306 into one package, 0:18:53.306,0:18:55.665 synthesize it in a way that very few people can and -- 0:18:55.665,0:18:59.759 and this is the critical thing -- feel so damn confident 0:18:59.759,0:19:04.375 in that clicked-together package that you take crazy risks. 0:19:04.375,0:19:09.254 You bet your fortune on it, and you seem to have done that multiple times. 0:19:09.254,0:19:11.351 I mean, almost no one can do that. 0:19:11.351,0:19:14.623 Is that -- could we have some of that secret sauce? 0:19:14.623,0:19:18.047 Can we put it into our education system? Can someone learn from you? 0:19:18.047,0:19:19.786 It is truly amazing what you've done. 0:19:19.786,0:19:21.795 EM: Well, thanks. Thank you. 0:19:21.795,0:19:26.605 Well, I do think there's a good framework for thinking. 0:19:26.605,0:19:29.229 It is physics. You know, the sort of first principles reasoning. 0:19:29.229,0:19:33.967 Generally I think there are -- what I mean by that is, 0:19:33.983,0:19:37.358 boil things down to their fundamental truths 0:19:37.358,0:19:38.749 and reason up from there, 0:19:38.749,0:19:41.335 as opposed to reasoning by analogy. 0:19:41.335,0:19:43.549 Through most of our life, we get through life 0:19:43.549,0:19:44.637 by reasoning by analogy, 0:19:44.637,0:19:48.175 which essentially means copying what other people do with slight variations. 0:19:48.175,0:19:49.655 And you have to do that. 0:19:49.655,0:19:54.229 Otherwise, mentally, you wouldn't be able to get through the day. 0:19:54.229,0:19:56.373 But when you want to do something new, 0:19:56.373,0:20:00.105 you have to apply the physics approach. 0:20:00.105,0:20:02.353 Physics is really figuring out how to discover 0:20:02.353,0:20:04.998 new things that are counterintuitive, like quantum mechanics. 0:20:04.998,0:20:06.901 It's really counterintuitive. 0:20:06.901,0:20:09.422 So I think that's an important thing to do, 0:20:09.422,0:20:13.980 and then also to really pay attention to negative feedback, 0:20:13.980,0:20:16.101 and solicit it, particularly from friends. 0:20:16.101,0:20:19.567 This may sound like simple advice, 0:20:19.567,0:20:21.989 but hardly anyone does that, 0:20:21.989,0:20:24.341 and it's incredibly helpful. 0:20:24.341,0:20:27.703 CA: Boys and girls watching, study physics. 0:20:27.703,0:20:28.987 Learn from this man. 0:20:28.987,0:20:32.477 Elon Musk, I wish we had all day, but thank you so much for coming to TED. 0:20:32.477,0:20:35.887 EM: Thank you. CA: That was awesome. That was really, really cool. 0:20:35.887,0:20:38.148 Look at that. (Applause) 0:20:38.148,0:20:42.975 Just take a bow. That was fantastic. 0:20:42.975,0:20:44.436 Thank you so much.