[Script Info]
Title: 
[Events]
Format: Layer, Start, End, Style, Name, MarginL, MarginR, MarginV, Effect, Text
Dialogue: 0,0:00:00.35,0:00:03.49,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Chris Anderson: Elon, what kind of crazy dream
Dialogue: 0,0:00:03.49,0:00:05.64,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,would persuade you to think of trying
Dialogue: 0,0:00:05.64,0:00:09.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,to take on the auto industry and build an all-electric car?
Dialogue: 0,0:00:09.00,0:00:12.40,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Elon Musk: Well, it goes back to when I was in university.
Dialogue: 0,0:00:12.40,0:00:14.55,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,I thought about, what are the problems that are most likely
Dialogue: 0,0:00:14.55,0:00:17.63,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,to affect the future of the world or the future of humanity?
Dialogue: 0,0:00:17.63,0:00:21.12,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,I think it's extremely important that we have sustainable transport
Dialogue: 0,0:00:21.12,0:00:23.48,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and sustainable energy production.
Dialogue: 0,0:00:23.48,0:00:25.52,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,That sort of overall sustainable energy problem
Dialogue: 0,0:00:25.52,0:00:28.02,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,is the biggest problem that we have to solve this century,
Dialogue: 0,0:00:28.02,0:00:30.23,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,independent of environmental concerns.
Dialogue: 0,0:00:30.23,0:00:33.14,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,In fact, even if producing CO2 was good for the environment,
Dialogue: 0,0:00:33.14,0:00:36.22,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,given that we're going to run out of hydrocarbons,
Dialogue: 0,0:00:36.22,0:00:40.28,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,we need to find some sustainable means of operating.
Dialogue: 0,0:00:40.28,0:00:44.29,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,CA: Most of American electricity comes from
Dialogue: 0,0:00:44.29,0:00:45.95,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,burning fossil fuels.
Dialogue: 0,0:00:45.95,0:00:50.56,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,How can an electric car that plugs into that electricity help?
Dialogue: 0,0:00:50.56,0:00:53.52,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,EM: Right. There's two elements to that answer.
Dialogue: 0,0:00:53.52,0:00:56.48,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,One is that, even if you take the same source fuel
Dialogue: 0,0:00:56.48,0:00:58.47,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and produce power at the power plant
Dialogue: 0,0:00:58.47,0:01:01.37,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and use it to charge electric cars, you're still better off.
Dialogue: 0,0:01:01.37,0:01:03.35,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So if you take, say, natural gas,
Dialogue: 0,0:01:03.35,0:01:05.95,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,which is the most prevalent hydrocarbon source fuel,
Dialogue: 0,0:01:05.95,0:01:08.95,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,if you burn that in a modern
Dialogue: 0,0:01:08.95,0:01:11.15,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,General Electric natural gas turbine,
Dialogue: 0,0:01:11.15,0:01:12.98,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,you'll get about 60 percent efficiency.
Dialogue: 0,0:01:12.98,0:01:15.70,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,If you put that same fuel in an internal combustion engine car,
Dialogue: 0,0:01:15.70,0:01:17.60,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,you get about 20 percent efficiency.
Dialogue: 0,0:01:17.60,0:01:19.18,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And the reason is, in the stationary power plant,
Dialogue: 0,0:01:19.18,0:01:21.54,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,you can afford to have something that weighs a lot more,
Dialogue: 0,0:01:21.54,0:01:23.26,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,is voluminous,
Dialogue: 0,0:01:23.26,0:01:24.71,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and you can take the waste heat
Dialogue: 0,0:01:24.71,0:01:26.08,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and run a steam turbine and generate
Dialogue: 0,0:01:26.08,0:01:27.87,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,a secondary power source.
Dialogue: 0,0:01:27.87,0:01:31.65,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So in effect, even after you've taken transmission loss into account and everything,
Dialogue: 0,0:01:31.65,0:01:35.06,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,even using the same source fuel, you're at least twice as better off
Dialogue: 0,0:01:35.06,0:01:37.53,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,charging an electric car, then burning it at the power plant.
Dialogue: 0,0:01:37.53,0:01:39.64,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,CA: That scale delivers efficiency.
Dialogue: 0,0:01:39.64,0:01:41.38,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,EM: Yes, it does.
Dialogue: 0,0:01:41.38,0:01:44.40,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And then the other point is, we have to have sustainable means
Dialogue: 0,0:01:44.40,0:01:46.80,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,of power generation anyway, electricity generation.
Dialogue: 0,0:01:46.80,0:01:49.87,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So given that we have to solve sustainable electricity generation,
Dialogue: 0,0:01:49.87,0:01:53.33,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,then it makes sense for us to have electric cars
Dialogue: 0,0:01:53.33,0:01:55.91,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,as the mode of transport.
Dialogue: 0,0:01:55.91,0:01:57.34,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,CA: So we've got some video here
Dialogue: 0,0:01:57.34,0:01:59.83,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,of the Tesla being assembled,
Dialogue: 0,0:01:59.83,0:02:02.55,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,which, if we could play that first video --
Dialogue: 0,0:02:02.55,0:02:07.49,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So what is innovative about this process in this vehicle?
Dialogue: 0,0:02:07.49,0:02:11.07,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,EM: Sure. So, in order to accelerate the advent of electric transport,
Dialogue: 0,0:02:11.07,0:02:13.14,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and I should say that I think, actually,
Dialogue: 0,0:02:13.14,0:02:15.60,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,all modes of transport will become fully electric
Dialogue: 0,0:02:15.60,0:02:20.66,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,with the ironic exception of rockets.
Dialogue: 0,0:02:20.66,0:02:23.42,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,There's just no way around Newton's third law.
Dialogue: 0,0:02:23.42,0:02:26.87,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,The question is how do you accelerate
Dialogue: 0,0:02:26.87,0:02:28.45,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,the advent of electric transport?
Dialogue: 0,0:02:28.45,0:02:30.90,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And in order to do that for cars, you have to come up with
Dialogue: 0,0:02:30.90,0:02:33.23,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,a really energy efficient car,
Dialogue: 0,0:02:33.23,0:02:35.08,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,so that means making it incredibly light,
Dialogue: 0,0:02:35.08,0:02:36.11,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and so what you're seeing here
Dialogue: 0,0:02:36.11,0:02:38.86,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,is the only all-aluminum body and chassis car
Dialogue: 0,0:02:38.86,0:02:40.44,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,made in North America.
Dialogue: 0,0:02:40.44,0:02:43.13,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,In fact, we applied a lot of rocket design techniques
Dialogue: 0,0:02:43.13,0:02:46.75,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,to make the car light despite having a very large battery pack.
Dialogue: 0,0:02:46.75,0:02:48.91,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And then it also has the lowest drag coefficient
Dialogue: 0,0:02:48.91,0:02:50.28,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,of any car of its size.
Dialogue: 0,0:02:50.28,0:02:53.94,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So as a result, the energy usage is very low,
Dialogue: 0,0:02:53.94,0:02:56.16,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and it has the most advanced battery pack,
Dialogue: 0,0:02:56.16,0:02:58.74,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and that's what gives it the range that's competitive,
Dialogue: 0,0:02:58.74,0:03:01.68,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,so you can actually have on the order of a 250-mile range.
Dialogue: 0,0:03:01.68,0:03:05.27,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,CA: I mean, those battery packs are incredibly heavy,
Dialogue: 0,0:03:05.27,0:03:08.54,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,but you think the math can still work out intelligently --
Dialogue: 0,0:03:08.54,0:03:10.68,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,by combining light body, heavy battery,
Dialogue: 0,0:03:10.68,0:03:12.95,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,you can still gain spectacular efficiency.
Dialogue: 0,0:03:12.95,0:03:14.78,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,EM: Exactly. The rest of the car has to be very light
Dialogue: 0,0:03:14.78,0:03:16.54,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,to offset the mass of the pack,
Dialogue: 0,0:03:16.54,0:03:19.57,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and then you have to have a low drag coefficient so that you have good highway range.
Dialogue: 0,0:03:19.57,0:03:23.30,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And in fact, customers of the Model S
Dialogue: 0,0:03:23.30,0:03:24.37,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,are sort of competing with each other
Dialogue: 0,0:03:24.37,0:03:27.39,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,to try to get the highest possible range.
Dialogue: 0,0:03:27.39,0:03:30.92,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,I think somebody recently got 420 miles out of a single charge.
Dialogue: 0,0:03:30.92,0:03:34.01,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,CA: Bruno Bowden, who's here, did that,
Dialogue: 0,0:03:34.01,0:03:36.60,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,broke the world record.\NEM: Congratulations.
Dialogue: 0,0:03:36.60,0:03:38.21,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,CA: That was the good news. The bad news was that
Dialogue: 0,0:03:38.21,0:03:41.03,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,to do it, he had to drive at 18 miles an hour constant speed
Dialogue: 0,0:03:41.03,0:03:44.94,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and got pulled over by the cops. (Laughter)
Dialogue: 0,0:03:44.94,0:03:48.83,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,EM: I mean, you can certainly drive --
Dialogue: 0,0:03:48.83,0:03:51.47,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,if you drive it 65 miles an hour,
Dialogue: 0,0:03:51.47,0:03:53.43,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,under normal conditions,
Dialogue: 0,0:03:53.43,0:03:55.32,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,250 miles is a reasonable number.
Dialogue: 0,0:03:55.32,0:03:56.45,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,CA: Let's show that second video
Dialogue: 0,0:03:56.45,0:03:59.30,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,showing the Tesla in action on ice.
Dialogue: 0,0:03:59.30,0:04:01.97,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Not at all a dig at The New York Times, this, by the way.
Dialogue: 0,0:04:01.97,0:04:04.38,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,What is the most surprising thing about the experience
Dialogue: 0,0:04:04.38,0:04:05.89,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,of driving the car?
Dialogue: 0,0:04:05.89,0:04:07.37,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,EM: In creating an electric car,
Dialogue: 0,0:04:07.37,0:04:09.77,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,the responsiveness of the car is really incredible.
Dialogue: 0,0:04:09.77,0:04:12.45,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So we wanted really to have people feel as though
Dialogue: 0,0:04:12.45,0:04:14.56,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,they've almost got to mind meld with the car,
Dialogue: 0,0:04:14.56,0:04:17.73,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,so you just feel like you and the car are kind of one,
Dialogue: 0,0:04:17.73,0:04:21.78,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and as you corner and accelerate, it just happens,
Dialogue: 0,0:04:21.78,0:04:23.61,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,like the car has ESP.
Dialogue: 0,0:04:23.61,0:04:26.11,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,You can do that with an electric car because of its responsiveness.
Dialogue: 0,0:04:26.11,0:04:28.23,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,You can't do that with a gasoline car.
Dialogue: 0,0:04:28.23,0:04:30.22,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,I think that's really a profound difference,
Dialogue: 0,0:04:30.22,0:04:33.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and people only experience that when they have a test drive.
Dialogue: 0,0:04:33.00,0:04:37.30,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,CA: I mean, this is a beautiful but expensive car.
Dialogue: 0,0:04:37.30,0:04:40.87,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Is there a road map where this becomes
Dialogue: 0,0:04:40.87,0:04:42.45,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,a mass-market vehicle?
Dialogue: 0,0:04:42.45,0:04:45.01,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,EM: Yeah. The goal of Tesla has always been
Dialogue: 0,0:04:45.01,0:04:47.28,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,to have a sort of three-step process,
Dialogue: 0,0:04:47.28,0:04:51.05,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,where version one was an expensive car at low volume,
Dialogue: 0,0:04:51.05,0:04:54.11,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,version two is medium priced and medium volume,
Dialogue: 0,0:04:54.11,0:04:56.40,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and then version three would be low price, high volume.
Dialogue: 0,0:04:56.40,0:04:58.08,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So we're at step two at this point.
Dialogue: 0,0:04:58.08,0:05:01.04,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So we had a $100,000 sports car, which was the Roadster.
Dialogue: 0,0:05:01.04,0:05:04.03,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Then we've got the Model S, which starts at around 50,000 dollars.
Dialogue: 0,0:05:04.03,0:05:06.14,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And our third generation car, which should hopefully
Dialogue: 0,0:05:06.14,0:05:07.87,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,be out in about three or four years
Dialogue: 0,0:05:07.87,0:05:10.52,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,will be a $30,000 car.
Dialogue: 0,0:05:10.52,0:05:13.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,But whenever you've got really new technology,
Dialogue: 0,0:05:13.00,0:05:15.10,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,it generally takes about three major versions
Dialogue: 0,0:05:15.10,0:05:18.32,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,in order to make it a compelling mass-market product.
Dialogue: 0,0:05:18.32,0:05:21.04,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And so I think we're making progress in that direction,
Dialogue: 0,0:05:21.04,0:05:23.31,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and I feel confident that we'll get there.
Dialogue: 0,0:05:23.31,0:05:25.22,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,CA: I mean, right now, if you've got a short commute,
Dialogue: 0,0:05:25.22,0:05:28.97,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,you can drive, you can get back, you can charge it at home.
Dialogue: 0,0:05:28.97,0:05:33.22,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,There isn't a huge nationwide network of charging stations now that are fast.
Dialogue: 0,0:05:33.22,0:05:36.06,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Do you see that coming, really, truly,
Dialogue: 0,0:05:36.06,0:05:38.31,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,or just on a few key routes?
Dialogue: 0,0:05:38.31,0:05:41.19,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,EM: There actually are far more charging stations
Dialogue: 0,0:05:41.19,0:05:43.41,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,than people realize,
Dialogue: 0,0:05:43.41,0:05:45.77,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and at Tesla we developed something
Dialogue: 0,0:05:45.77,0:05:47.98,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,called a Supercharging technology,
Dialogue: 0,0:05:47.98,0:05:51.29,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and we're offering that if you buy a Model S
Dialogue: 0,0:05:51.29,0:05:52.76,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,for free, forever.
Dialogue: 0,0:05:52.76,0:05:55.41,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And so this is something that maybe a lot of people don't realize.
Dialogue: 0,0:05:55.41,0:05:58.24,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,We actually have California and Nevada covered,
Dialogue: 0,0:05:58.24,0:06:00.51,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and we've got the Eastern seaboard
Dialogue: 0,0:06:00.51,0:06:02.77,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,from Boston to D.C. covered.
Dialogue: 0,0:06:02.77,0:06:04.15,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,By the end of this year, you'll be able to drive
Dialogue: 0,0:06:04.15,0:06:06.29,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,from L.A. to New York
Dialogue: 0,0:06:06.29,0:06:07.89,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,just using the Supercharger network,
Dialogue: 0,0:06:07.89,0:06:12.11,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,which charges at five times the rate of anything else.
Dialogue: 0,0:06:12.11,0:06:16.54,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And the key thing is to have a ratio of drive to stop,
Dialogue: 0,0:06:16.54,0:06:19.54,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,to stop time, of about six or seven.
Dialogue: 0,0:06:19.54,0:06:21.76,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So if you drive for three hours,
Dialogue: 0,0:06:21.76,0:06:23.40,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,you want to stop for 20 or 30 minutes,
Dialogue: 0,0:06:23.40,0:06:25.90,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,because that's normally what people will stop for.
Dialogue: 0,0:06:25.90,0:06:28.02,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So if you start a trip at 9 a.m.,
Dialogue: 0,0:06:28.02,0:06:30.56,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,by noon you want to stop to have a bite to eat,
Dialogue: 0,0:06:30.56,0:06:32.30,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,hit the restroom, coffee, and keep going.
Dialogue: 0,0:06:32.30,0:06:35.65,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,CA: So your proposition to consumers is, for the full charge, it could take an hour.
Dialogue: 0,0:06:35.65,0:06:39.63,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So it's common -- don't expect to be out of here in 10 minutes.
Dialogue: 0,0:06:39.63,0:06:41.60,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Wait for an hour, but the good news is,
Dialogue: 0,0:06:41.60,0:06:43.04,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,you're helping save the planet,
Dialogue: 0,0:06:43.04,0:06:45.73,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and by the way, the electricity is free. You don't pay anything.
Dialogue: 0,0:06:45.73,0:06:47.59,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,EM: Actually, what we're expecting is for people
Dialogue: 0,0:06:47.59,0:06:51.12,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,to stop for about 20 to 30 minutes, not for an hour.
Dialogue: 0,0:06:51.12,0:06:58.85,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,It's actually better to drive for about maybe 160, 170 miles
Dialogue: 0,0:06:58.85,0:07:00.94,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and then stop for half an hour
Dialogue: 0,0:07:00.94,0:07:02.31,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and then keep going.
Dialogue: 0,0:07:02.31,0:07:05.59,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,That's the natural cadence of a trip.
Dialogue: 0,0:07:05.59,0:07:09.97,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,CA: All right. So this is only one string to your energy bow.
Dialogue: 0,0:07:09.97,0:07:12.61,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,You've been working on this solar company SolarCity.
Dialogue: 0,0:07:12.61,0:07:15.13,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,What's unusual about that?
Dialogue: 0,0:07:15.13,0:07:17.49,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,EM: Well, as I mentioned earlier,
Dialogue: 0,0:07:17.49,0:07:21.13,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,we have to have sustainable electricity production
Dialogue: 0,0:07:21.13,0:07:22.77,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,as well as consumption,
Dialogue: 0,0:07:22.77,0:07:26.60,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,so I'm quite confident that the primary means
Dialogue: 0,0:07:26.60,0:07:29.08,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,of power generation will be solar.
Dialogue: 0,0:07:29.08,0:07:31.41,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,I mean, it's really indirect fusion, is what it is.
Dialogue: 0,0:07:31.41,0:07:34.65,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,We've got this giant fusion generator in the sky called the sun,
Dialogue: 0,0:07:34.65,0:07:37.54,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and we just need to tap a little bit of that energy
Dialogue: 0,0:07:37.54,0:07:40.41,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,for purposes of human civilization.
Dialogue: 0,0:07:40.41,0:07:42.42,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,What most people know but don't realize they know
Dialogue: 0,0:07:42.42,0:07:45.77,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,is that the world is almost entirely solar-powered already.
Dialogue: 0,0:07:45.77,0:07:49.01,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,If the sun wasn't there, we'd be a frozen ice ball
Dialogue: 0,0:07:49.01,0:07:51.18,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,at three degrees Kelvin,
Dialogue: 0,0:07:51.18,0:07:54.97,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and the sun powers the entire system of precipitation.
Dialogue: 0,0:07:54.97,0:07:57.63,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,The whole ecosystem is solar-powered.
Dialogue: 0,0:07:57.63,0:07:59.98,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,CA: But in a gallon of gasoline, you have,
Dialogue: 0,0:07:59.98,0:08:02.24,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,effectively, thousands of years of sun power
Dialogue: 0,0:08:02.24,0:08:04.31,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,compressed into a small space,
Dialogue: 0,0:08:04.31,0:08:07.29,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,so it's hard to make the numbers work right now on solar,
Dialogue: 0,0:08:07.29,0:08:10.38,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and to remotely compete with, for example, natural gas,
Dialogue: 0,0:08:10.38,0:08:13.82,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,fracked natural gas. How are you going to build a business here?
Dialogue: 0,0:08:13.82,0:08:17.13,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,EM: Well actually, I'm confident that solar
Dialogue: 0,0:08:17.13,0:08:21.05,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,will beat everything, hands down, including natural gas.
Dialogue: 0,0:08:21.05,0:08:23.43,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,(Applause)\NCA: How?
Dialogue: 0,0:08:23.43,0:08:27.01,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,EM: It must, actually. If it doesn't, we're in deep trouble.
Dialogue: 0,0:08:27.01,0:08:30.04,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,CA: But you're not selling solar panels to consumers.
Dialogue: 0,0:08:30.04,0:08:31.19,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,What are you doing?
Dialogue: 0,0:08:31.19,0:08:34.44,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,EM: No, we actually are. You can buy a solar system
Dialogue: 0,0:08:34.44,0:08:35.98,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,or you can lease a solar system.
Dialogue: 0,0:08:35.98,0:08:37.97,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Most people choose to lease.
Dialogue: 0,0:08:37.97,0:08:40.04,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And the thing about solar power is that
Dialogue: 0,0:08:40.04,0:08:42.79,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,it doesn't have any feed stock or operational costs,
Dialogue: 0,0:08:42.79,0:08:46.01,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,so once it's installed, it's just there.
Dialogue: 0,0:08:46.01,0:08:50.52,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,It works for decades. It'll work for probably a century.
Dialogue: 0,0:08:50.52,0:08:53.45,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So therefore, the key thing to do is to get the cost
Dialogue: 0,0:08:53.45,0:08:55.43,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,of that initial installation low,
Dialogue: 0,0:08:55.43,0:08:58.06,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and then get the cost of the financing low,
Dialogue: 0,0:08:58.06,0:09:01.69,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,because that interest -- those are the two factors that drive the cost of solar.
Dialogue: 0,0:09:01.69,0:09:05.10,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And we've made huge progress in that direction,
Dialogue: 0,0:09:05.10,0:09:08.67,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and that's why I'm confident we'll actually beat natural gas.
Dialogue: 0,0:09:08.67,0:09:11.45,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,CA: So your current proposition to consumers is,
Dialogue: 0,0:09:11.45,0:09:13.66,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,don't pay so much up front.
Dialogue: 0,0:09:13.66,0:09:16.34,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,EM: Zero.\NCA: Pay zero up front.
Dialogue: 0,0:09:16.34,0:09:18.98,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,We will install panels on your roof.
Dialogue: 0,0:09:18.98,0:09:22.58,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,You will then pay, how long is a typical lease?
Dialogue: 0,0:09:22.58,0:09:25.83,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,EM: Typical leases are 20 years,
Dialogue: 0,0:09:25.83,0:09:30.49,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,but the value proposition is, as you're sort of alluding to, quite straightforward.
Dialogue: 0,0:09:30.49,0:09:34.64,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,It's no money down, and your utility bill decreases.
Dialogue: 0,0:09:34.64,0:09:36.52,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Pretty good deal.
Dialogue: 0,0:09:36.52,0:09:38.43,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,CA: So that seems like a win for the consumer.
Dialogue: 0,0:09:38.43,0:09:40.89,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,No risk, you'll pay less than you're paying now.
Dialogue: 0,0:09:40.89,0:09:43.28,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,For you, the dream here then is that --
Dialogue: 0,0:09:43.28,0:09:48.06,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,I mean, who owns the electricity from those panels for the longer term?
Dialogue: 0,0:09:48.06,0:09:51.24,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,I mean, how do you, the company, benefit?
Dialogue: 0,0:09:51.24,0:09:54.78,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,EM: Well, essentially,
Dialogue: 0,0:09:54.78,0:10:00.67,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,SolarCity raises a chunk of capital
Dialogue: 0,0:10:00.67,0:10:04.34,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,from say, a company or a bank.
Dialogue: 0,0:10:04.34,0:10:06.55,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Google is one of our big partners here.
Dialogue: 0,0:10:06.55,0:10:08.98,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And they have an expected return on that capital.
Dialogue: 0,0:10:08.98,0:10:13.36,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,With that capital, SolarCity purchases and installs the panel on the roof
Dialogue: 0,0:10:13.36,0:10:16.81,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and then charges the homeowner or business owner
Dialogue: 0,0:10:16.81,0:10:20.52,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,a monthly lease payment, which is less than the utility bill.
Dialogue: 0,0:10:20.52,0:10:24.03,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,CA: But you yourself get a long-term commercial benefit from that power.
Dialogue: 0,0:10:24.03,0:10:27.80,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,You're kind of building a new type of distributed utility.
Dialogue: 0,0:10:27.80,0:10:29.47,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,EM: Exactly. What it amounts to
Dialogue: 0,0:10:29.47,0:10:32.81,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,is a giant distributed utility.
Dialogue: 0,0:10:32.81,0:10:35.70,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,I think it's a good thing, because utilities
Dialogue: 0,0:10:35.70,0:10:38.53,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,have been this monopoly, and people haven't had any choice.
Dialogue: 0,0:10:38.53,0:10:40.63,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So effectively it's the first time
Dialogue: 0,0:10:40.63,0:10:43.89,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,there's been competition for this monopoly,
Dialogue: 0,0:10:43.89,0:10:46.89,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,because the utilities have been the only ones
Dialogue: 0,0:10:46.89,0:10:49.54,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that owned those power distribution lines, but now it's on your roof.
Dialogue: 0,0:10:49.54,0:10:51.43,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So I think it's actually very empowering
Dialogue: 0,0:10:51.43,0:10:54.07,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,for homeowners and businesses.
Dialogue: 0,0:10:54.07,0:10:55.42,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,CA: And you really picture a future
Dialogue: 0,0:10:55.42,0:10:59.34,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,where a majority of power in America,
Dialogue: 0,0:10:59.34,0:11:04.05,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,within a decade or two, or within your lifetime, it goes solar?
Dialogue: 0,0:11:04.05,0:11:09.84,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,EM: I'm extremely confident that solar will be at least a plurality of power,
Dialogue: 0,0:11:09.84,0:11:11.96,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and most likely a majority,
Dialogue: 0,0:11:11.96,0:11:17.22,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and I predict it will be a plurality in less than 20 years.
Dialogue: 0,0:11:17.22,0:11:20.68,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,I made that bet with someone —\NCA: Definition of plurality is?
Dialogue: 0,0:11:20.68,0:11:22.43,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,EM: More from solar than any other source.
Dialogue: 0,0:11:22.43,0:11:26.19,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,CA: Ah. Who did you make the bet with?
Dialogue: 0,0:11:26.19,0:11:29.59,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,EM: With a friend who will remain nameless.
Dialogue: 0,0:11:29.59,0:11:33.91,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,CA: Just between us. (Laughter)
Dialogue: 0,0:11:33.91,0:11:36.70,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,EM: I made that bet, I think, two or three years ago,
Dialogue: 0,0:11:36.70,0:11:38.50,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,so in roughly 18 years,
Dialogue: 0,0:11:38.50,0:11:42.06,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,I think we'll see more power from solar than any other source.
Dialogue: 0,0:11:42.06,0:11:43.83,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,CA: All right, so let's go back to another bet that you made
Dialogue: 0,0:11:43.83,0:11:46.04,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,with yourself, I guess, a kind of crazy bet.
Dialogue: 0,0:11:46.04,0:11:50.82,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,You'd made some money from the sale of PayPal.
Dialogue: 0,0:11:50.82,0:11:53.26,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,You decided to build a space company.
Dialogue: 0,0:11:53.26,0:11:55.33,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Why on Earth would someone do that?
Dialogue: 0,0:11:55.33,0:11:57.51,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,(Laughter)
Dialogue: 0,0:11:57.51,0:12:00.32,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,EM: I got that question a lot, that's true.
Dialogue: 0,0:12:00.32,0:12:02.58,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,People would say, "Did you hear the joke about the guy
Dialogue: 0,0:12:02.58,0:12:05.48,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,who made a small fortune in the space industry?"
Dialogue: 0,0:12:05.48,0:12:09.73,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Obviously, "He started with a large one," is the punchline.
Dialogue: 0,0:12:09.73,0:12:12.28,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And so I tell people, well, I was trying to figure out
Dialogue: 0,0:12:12.28,0:12:14.56,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,the fastest way to turn a large fortune into a small one.
Dialogue: 0,0:12:14.56,0:12:17.61,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And they'd look at me, like, "Is he serious?"
Dialogue: 0,0:12:17.61,0:12:22.67,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,CA: And strangely, you were. So what happened?
Dialogue: 0,0:12:22.67,0:12:25.85,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,EM: It was a close call. Things almost didn't work out.
Dialogue: 0,0:12:25.85,0:12:27.60,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,We came very close to failure,
Dialogue: 0,0:12:27.60,0:12:30.73,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,but we managed to get through that point in 2008.
Dialogue: 0,0:12:30.73,0:12:36.88,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,The goal of SpaceX is to try to advance rocket technology,
Dialogue: 0,0:12:36.88,0:12:38.84,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and in particular to try to crack a problem
Dialogue: 0,0:12:38.84,0:12:40.42,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that I think is vital
Dialogue: 0,0:12:40.42,0:12:42.45,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,for humanity to become a space-faring civilization,
Dialogue: 0,0:12:42.45,0:12:47.33,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,which is to have a rapidly and fully reusable rocket.
Dialogue: 0,0:12:47.33,0:12:50.42,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,CA: Would humanity become a space-faring civilization?
Dialogue: 0,0:12:50.42,0:12:54.44,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So that was a dream of yours, in a way, from a young age?
Dialogue: 0,0:12:54.44,0:12:57.82,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,You've dreamed of Mars and beyond?
Dialogue: 0,0:12:57.82,0:12:59.95,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,EM: I did build rockets when I was a kid,
Dialogue: 0,0:12:59.95,0:13:01.35,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,but I didn't think I'd be involved in this.
Dialogue: 0,0:13:01.35,0:13:03.33,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,It was really more from the standpoint of
Dialogue: 0,0:13:03.33,0:13:07.20,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,what are the things that need to happen in order for
Dialogue: 0,0:13:07.20,0:13:10.02,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,the future to be an exciting and inspiring one?
Dialogue: 0,0:13:10.02,0:13:14.11,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And I really think there's a fundamental difference,
Dialogue: 0,0:13:14.11,0:13:15.51,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,if you sort of look into the future,
Dialogue: 0,0:13:15.51,0:13:18.97,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,between a humanity that is a space-faring civilization,
Dialogue: 0,0:13:18.97,0:13:22.08,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that's out there exploring the stars, on multiple planets,
Dialogue: 0,0:13:22.08,0:13:24.29,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and I think that's really exciting,
Dialogue: 0,0:13:24.29,0:13:27.46,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,compared with one where we are forever confined to Earth
Dialogue: 0,0:13:27.46,0:13:29.75,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,until some eventual extinction event.
Dialogue: 0,0:13:29.75,0:13:31.50,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,CA: So you've somehow slashed the cost of building
Dialogue: 0,0:13:31.50,0:13:34.85,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,a rocket by 75 percent, depending on how you calculate it.
Dialogue: 0,0:13:34.85,0:13:37.13,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,How on Earth have you done that?
Dialogue: 0,0:13:37.13,0:13:40.24,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,NASA has been doing this for years. How have you done this?
Dialogue: 0,0:13:40.24,0:13:42.64,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,EM: Well, we've made significant advances
Dialogue: 0,0:13:42.64,0:13:45.40,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,in the technology of the airframe, the engines,
Dialogue: 0,0:13:45.40,0:13:48.62,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,the electronics and the launch operation.
Dialogue: 0,0:13:48.62,0:13:51.34,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,There's a long list of innovations
Dialogue: 0,0:13:51.34,0:13:53.51,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that we've come up with there
Dialogue: 0,0:13:53.51,0:13:59.19,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that are a little difficult to communicate in this talk, but --
Dialogue: 0,0:13:59.19,0:14:02.60,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,CA: Not least because you could still get copied, right?
Dialogue: 0,0:14:02.60,0:14:05.22,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,You haven't patented this stuff. It's really interesting to me.
Dialogue: 0,0:14:05.22,0:14:07.46,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,EM: No, we don't patent.\NCA: You didn't patent because you think it's
Dialogue: 0,0:14:07.46,0:14:10.20,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,more dangerous to patent than not to patent.
Dialogue: 0,0:14:10.20,0:14:12.90,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,EM: Since our primary competitors are national governments,
Dialogue: 0,0:14:12.90,0:14:17.37,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,the enforceability of patents is questionable.\N(Laughter) (Applause)
Dialogue: 0,0:14:17.37,0:14:20.79,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,CA: That's really, really interesting.
Dialogue: 0,0:14:20.79,0:14:23.42,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,But the big innovation is still ahead,
Dialogue: 0,0:14:23.42,0:14:26.16,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and you're working on it now. Tell us about this.
Dialogue: 0,0:14:26.16,0:14:27.84,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,EM: Right, so the big innovation—
Dialogue: 0,0:14:27.84,0:14:32.08,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,CA: In fact, let's roll that video and you can talk us through it, what's happening here.
Dialogue: 0,0:14:32.08,0:14:36.16,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,EM: Absolutely. So the thing about rockets is that
Dialogue: 0,0:14:36.16,0:14:37.70,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,they're all expendable.
Dialogue: 0,0:14:37.70,0:14:39.96,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,All rockets that fly today are fully expendable.
Dialogue: 0,0:14:39.96,0:14:42.09,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,The space shuttle was an attempt at a reusable rocket,
Dialogue: 0,0:14:42.09,0:14:45.02,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,but even the main tank of the space shuttle was thrown away every time,
Dialogue: 0,0:14:45.02,0:14:47.12,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and the parts that were reusable
Dialogue: 0,0:14:47.12,0:14:52.17,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,took a 10,000-person group nine months to refurbish for flight.
Dialogue: 0,0:14:52.17,0:14:55.76,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So the space shuttle ended up costing a billion dollars per flight.
Dialogue: 0,0:14:55.76,0:14:57.94,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Obviously that doesn't work very well for —
Dialogue: 0,0:14:57.94,0:15:01.16,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,CA: What just happened there? We just saw something land?
Dialogue: 0,0:15:01.16,0:15:05.49,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,EM: That's right. So it's important that the rocket stages
Dialogue: 0,0:15:05.49,0:15:08.86,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,be able to come back, to be able to return to the launch site
Dialogue: 0,0:15:08.86,0:15:11.87,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and be ready to launch again within a matter of hours.
Dialogue: 0,0:15:11.87,0:15:16.56,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,CA: Wow. Reusable rockets.\NEM: Yes. (Applause)
Dialogue: 0,0:15:16.56,0:15:19.76,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And so what a lot of people don't realize is,
Dialogue: 0,0:15:19.76,0:15:22.36,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,the cost of the fuel, of the propellant, is very small.
Dialogue: 0,0:15:22.36,0:15:24.06,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,It's much like on a jet.
Dialogue: 0,0:15:24.06,0:15:27.58,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So the cost of the propellant is about .3 percent
Dialogue: 0,0:15:27.58,0:15:29.48,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,of the cost of the rocket.
Dialogue: 0,0:15:29.48,0:15:31.64,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So it's possible to achieve, let's say,
Dialogue: 0,0:15:31.64,0:15:34.48,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,roughly 100-fold improvement in the cost of spaceflight
Dialogue: 0,0:15:34.48,0:15:37.56,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,if you can effectively reuse the rocket.
Dialogue: 0,0:15:37.56,0:15:38.100,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,That's why it's so important.
Dialogue: 0,0:15:38.100,0:15:41.22,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Every mode of transport that we use,
Dialogue: 0,0:15:41.22,0:15:44.15,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,whether it's planes, trains, automobiles, bikes, horses,
Dialogue: 0,0:15:44.15,0:15:46.48,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,is reusable, but not rockets.
Dialogue: 0,0:15:46.48,0:15:49.77,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So we must solve this problem in order to become a space-faring civilization.
Dialogue: 0,0:15:49.77,0:15:51.24,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,CA: You asked me the question earlier
Dialogue: 0,0:15:51.24,0:15:55.03,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,of how popular traveling on cruises would be
Dialogue: 0,0:15:55.03,0:16:01.17,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,if you had to burn your ships afterward.\NEM: Certain cruises are apparently highly problematic.
Dialogue: 0,0:16:01.17,0:16:03.36,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,CA: Definitely more expensive.
Dialogue: 0,0:16:03.36,0:16:07.33,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So that's potentially absolutely disruptive technology,
Dialogue: 0,0:16:07.33,0:16:11.51,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and, I guess, paves the way for your dream to actually take,
Dialogue: 0,0:16:11.51,0:16:15.30,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,at some point, to take humanity to Mars at scale.
Dialogue: 0,0:16:15.30,0:16:17.59,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,You'd like to see a colony on Mars.
Dialogue: 0,0:16:17.60,0:16:21.14,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,EM: Yeah, exactly. SpaceX, or some combination
Dialogue: 0,0:16:21.14,0:16:24.17,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,of companies and governments, needs to make progress
Dialogue: 0,0:16:24.17,0:16:27.13,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,in the direction of making life multi-planetary,
Dialogue: 0,0:16:27.13,0:16:30.76,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,of establishing a base on another planet,
Dialogue: 0,0:16:30.76,0:16:33.11,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,on Mars -- being the only realistic option --
Dialogue: 0,0:16:33.11,0:16:34.49,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and then building that base up
Dialogue: 0,0:16:34.49,0:16:37.44,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,until we're a true multi-planet species.
Dialogue: 0,0:16:37.44,0:16:40.41,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,CA: So progress on this "let's make it reusable,"
Dialogue: 0,0:16:40.41,0:16:44.23,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,how is that going? That was just a simulation video we saw.
Dialogue: 0,0:16:44.23,0:16:45.34,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,How's it going?
Dialogue: 0,0:16:45.34,0:16:48.50,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,EM: We're actually, we've been making some good progress recently
Dialogue: 0,0:16:48.50,0:16:51.08,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,with something we call the Grasshopper Test Project,
Dialogue: 0,0:16:51.08,0:16:55.26,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,where we're testing the vertical landing portion of the flight,
Dialogue: 0,0:16:55.26,0:16:58.01,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,the sort of terminal portion which is quite tricky.
Dialogue: 0,0:16:58.01,0:17:01.04,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And we've had some good tests.
Dialogue: 0,0:17:01.04,0:17:03.10,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,CA: Can we see that?\NEM: Yeah.
Dialogue: 0,0:17:03.10,0:17:04.75,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So that's just to give a sense of scale.
Dialogue: 0,0:17:04.75,0:17:06.19,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,We dressed a cowboy as Johnny Cash
Dialogue: 0,0:17:06.19,0:17:10.04,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and bolted the mannequin to the rocket. (Laughter)
Dialogue: 0,0:17:10.04,0:17:11.100,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,CA: All right, let's see that video then,
Dialogue: 0,0:17:11.100,0:17:14.03,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,because this is actually amazing when you think about it.
Dialogue: 0,0:17:14.03,0:17:19.73,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,You've never seen this before. A rocket blasting off and then --
Dialogue: 0,0:17:19.73,0:17:21.65,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,EM: Yeah, so that rocket is about the size
Dialogue: 0,0:17:21.65,0:17:24.28,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,of a 12-story building.
Dialogue: 0,0:17:24.28,0:17:30.25,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,(Rocket launch)
Dialogue: 0,0:17:35.10,0:17:39.07,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So now it's hovering at about 40 meters,
Dialogue: 0,0:17:39.07,0:17:40.95,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and it's constantly adjusting
Dialogue: 0,0:17:40.95,0:17:43.91,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,the angle, the pitch and yaw of the main engine,
Dialogue: 0,0:17:43.91,0:17:47.54,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and maintaining roll with coal gas thrusters.
Dialogue: 0,0:17:54.05,0:18:00.36,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,CA: How cool is that? (Applause)
Dialogue: 0,0:18:00.36,0:18:05.03,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Elon, how have you done this?
Dialogue: 0,0:18:05.03,0:18:10.35,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,These projects are so -- Paypal, SolarCity,
Dialogue: 0,0:18:10.35,0:18:13.02,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Tesla, SpaceX, they're so spectacularly different,
Dialogue: 0,0:18:13.02,0:18:15.61,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,they're such ambitious projects at scale.
Dialogue: 0,0:18:15.61,0:18:18.07,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,How on Earth has one person
Dialogue: 0,0:18:18.07,0:18:20.55,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,been able to innovate in this way?
Dialogue: 0,0:18:20.55,0:18:22.39,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,What is it about you?
Dialogue: 0,0:18:22.39,0:18:27.78,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,EM: I don't know, actually.
Dialogue: 0,0:18:27.78,0:18:30.02,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,I don't have a good answer for you.
Dialogue: 0,0:18:30.02,0:18:33.66,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,I work a lot. I mean, a lot.
Dialogue: 0,0:18:33.66,0:18:35.97,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,CA: Well, I have a theory.\NEM: Okay. All right.
Dialogue: 0,0:18:35.97,0:18:39.53,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,CA: My theory is that you
Dialogue: 0,0:18:39.53,0:18:43.69,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,have an ability to think at a system level of design
Dialogue: 0,0:18:43.69,0:18:47.33,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that pulls together design, technology and business,
Dialogue: 0,0:18:47.33,0:18:50.81,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,so if TED was TBD, design, technology and business,
Dialogue: 0,0:18:50.81,0:18:53.31,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,into one package,
Dialogue: 0,0:18:53.31,0:18:55.66,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,synthesize it in a way that very few people can and --
Dialogue: 0,0:18:55.66,0:18:59.76,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and this is the critical thing -- feel so damn confident
Dialogue: 0,0:18:59.76,0:19:04.38,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,in that clicked-together package that you take crazy risks.
Dialogue: 0,0:19:04.38,0:19:09.25,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,You bet your fortune on it, and you seem to have done that multiple times.
Dialogue: 0,0:19:09.25,0:19:11.35,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,I mean, almost no one can do that.
Dialogue: 0,0:19:11.35,0:19:14.62,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Is that -- could we have some of that secret sauce?
Dialogue: 0,0:19:14.62,0:19:18.05,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Can we put it into our education system? Can someone learn from you?
Dialogue: 0,0:19:18.05,0:19:19.79,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,It is truly amazing what you've done.
Dialogue: 0,0:19:19.79,0:19:21.80,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,EM: Well, thanks. Thank you.
Dialogue: 0,0:19:21.80,0:19:26.60,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Well, I do think there's a good framework for thinking.
Dialogue: 0,0:19:26.60,0:19:29.23,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,It is physics. You know, the sort of first principles reasoning.
Dialogue: 0,0:19:29.23,0:19:33.97,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Generally I think there are -- what I mean by that is,
Dialogue: 0,0:19:33.98,0:19:37.36,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,boil things down to their fundamental truths
Dialogue: 0,0:19:37.36,0:19:38.75,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and reason up from there,
Dialogue: 0,0:19:38.75,0:19:41.34,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,as opposed to reasoning by analogy.
Dialogue: 0,0:19:41.34,0:19:43.55,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Through most of our life, we get through life
Dialogue: 0,0:19:43.55,0:19:44.64,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,by reasoning by analogy,
Dialogue: 0,0:19:44.64,0:19:48.18,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,which essentially means copying what other people do with slight variations.
Dialogue: 0,0:19:48.18,0:19:49.66,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And you have to do that.
Dialogue: 0,0:19:49.66,0:19:54.23,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Otherwise, mentally, you wouldn't be able to get through the day.
Dialogue: 0,0:19:54.23,0:19:56.37,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,But when you want to do something new,
Dialogue: 0,0:19:56.37,0:20:00.10,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,you have to apply the physics approach.
Dialogue: 0,0:20:00.10,0:20:02.35,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Physics is really figuring out how to discover
Dialogue: 0,0:20:02.35,0:20:04.100,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,new things that are counterintuitive, like quantum mechanics.
Dialogue: 0,0:20:04.100,0:20:06.90,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,It's really counterintuitive.
Dialogue: 0,0:20:06.90,0:20:09.42,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So I think that's an important thing to do,
Dialogue: 0,0:20:09.42,0:20:13.98,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and then also to really pay attention to negative feedback,
Dialogue: 0,0:20:13.98,0:20:16.10,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and solicit it, particularly from friends.
Dialogue: 0,0:20:16.10,0:20:19.57,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,This may sound like simple advice,
Dialogue: 0,0:20:19.57,0:20:21.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,but hardly anyone does that,
Dialogue: 0,0:20:21.99,0:20:24.34,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and it's incredibly helpful.
Dialogue: 0,0:20:24.34,0:20:27.70,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,CA: Boys and girls watching, study physics.
Dialogue: 0,0:20:27.70,0:20:28.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Learn from this man.
Dialogue: 0,0:20:28.99,0:20:32.48,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Elon Musk, I wish we had all day, but thank you so much for coming to TED.
Dialogue: 0,0:20:32.48,0:20:35.89,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,EM: Thank you. CA: That was awesome. That was really, really cool.
Dialogue: 0,0:20:35.89,0:20:38.15,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Look at that. (Applause)
Dialogue: 0,0:20:38.15,0:20:42.98,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Just take a bow. That was fantastic.
Dialogue: 0,0:20:42.98,0:20:44.44,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Thank you so much.