[Script Info]
Title: 
[Events]
Format: Layer, Start, End, Style, Name, MarginL, MarginR, MarginV, Effect, Text
Dialogue: 0,0:00:00.00,0:00:05.74,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,♪ [music] ♪
Dialogue: 0,0:00:09.47,0:00:11.83,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,- [Tyler] Today, we look\Nat a new type of market.
Dialogue: 0,0:00:11.83,0:00:15.30,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,A market which has been designed\Nto make predictions.
Dialogue: 0,0:00:19.25,0:00:22.26,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,In previous talks we discussed\Nhow prices are signals
Dialogue: 0,0:00:22.26,0:00:24.05,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that convey information.
Dialogue: 0,0:00:24.05,0:00:26.72,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Information about where goods\Nhave high value
Dialogue: 0,0:00:26.72,0:00:30.01,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and where they have low value,\Nwhich goods have high value
Dialogue: 0,0:00:30.01,0:00:32.74,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and which have low value\Nand so forth.
Dialogue: 0,0:00:32.74,0:00:36.54,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Prices also can convey information\Nabout world events,
Dialogue: 0,0:00:36.54,0:00:38.94,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,even predictions of the future.
Dialogue: 0,0:00:38.94,0:00:42.93,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So, the orange juice futures price\Nfor instance, implicitly contains
Dialogue: 0,0:00:42.93,0:00:46.13,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,a prediction\Nabout the weather in Florida.
Dialogue: 0,0:00:46.13,0:00:49.17,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,It's not that these markets\Nwere designed for this purpose,
Dialogue: 0,0:00:49.17,0:00:52.38,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,rather it's that speculators,\Nif they are to profit
Dialogue: 0,0:00:52.38,0:00:55.48,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,from movements in the price\Nof orange juice futures,
Dialogue: 0,0:00:55.48,0:00:58.72,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,have to make some predictions\Nabout the weather in Florida.
Dialogue: 0,0:00:58.72,0:01:01.56,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,They have to know something\Nabout the weather in Florida.
Dialogue: 0,0:01:01.56,0:01:03.96,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So the price\Nof the orange juice futures,
Dialogue: 0,0:01:03.96,0:01:07.93,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,comes in part to reflect\Nthe information that speculators
Dialogue: 0,0:01:07.93,0:01:11.26,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,hold about future weather\Npatterns in Florida.
Dialogue: 0,0:01:11.47,0:01:15.08,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Indeed, economists and others\Noften have looked informally
Dialogue: 0,0:01:15.08,0:01:18.38,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,to market prices\Nto help make predictions.
Dialogue: 0,0:01:18.38,0:01:21.54,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,To help predict Florida weather,\Nthey look to the price
Dialogue: 0,0:01:21.54,0:01:24.28,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,of orange juice\Nin the futures market.
Dialogue: 0,0:01:24.28,0:01:26.85,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,To help predict\NMiddle Eastern politics,
Dialogue: 0,0:01:26.85,0:01:29.95,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,they look to the price\Nof oil and oil futures.
Dialogue: 0,0:01:29.95,0:01:33.51,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,To help predict the consequences\Nof global climate change,
Dialogue: 0,0:01:33.51,0:01:35.54,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,they look to the price\Nof flood insurance
Dialogue: 0,0:01:35.54,0:01:37.36,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,in coastal regions.
Dialogue: 0,0:01:37.36,0:01:39.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Now, in each of these cases,\Nthe implicit prediction
Dialogue: 0,0:01:39.99,0:01:43.82,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,is just a by-product of the market\Nand indeed many other things
Dialogue: 0,0:01:43.82,0:01:47.80,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,are going on in these markets\Nwhich also influence the prices.
Dialogue: 0,0:01:47.80,0:01:51.22,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,The prices in these markets\Nare noisy predictors.
Dialogue: 0,0:01:51.22,0:01:54.88,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,They're rather imperfect predictors\Nbecause they weren't designed
Dialogue: 0,0:01:54.88,0:01:56.79,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,to only predict.
Dialogue: 0,0:01:56.79,0:01:59.67,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,What would happen if we design\Nthe market explicitly
Dialogue: 0,0:01:59.67,0:02:01.50,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,to make predictions?
Dialogue: 0,0:02:01.50,0:02:03.58,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Then the predictions we got\Nout of the market
Dialogue: 0,0:02:03.58,0:02:07.24,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,might be even more robust\Nand even more accurate.
Dialogue: 0,0:02:07.24,0:02:09.72,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Let's take a look at some markets\Nwhich have been designed
Dialogue: 0,0:02:09.72,0:02:11.42,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,to make predictions.
Dialogue: 0,0:02:11.88,0:02:14.23,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Prediction markets\Nare speculative markets
Dialogue: 0,0:02:14.23,0:02:16.84,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,which have been designed\Nso that the prices
Dialogue: 0,0:02:16.84,0:02:20.67,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,can be interpreted as probabilities\Nand used to make predictions.
Dialogue: 0,0:02:21.05,0:02:25.28,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,One of the most famous of these\Nis the Iowa Electronic Markets.
Dialogue: 0,0:02:25.28,0:02:28.09,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,I encourage you to go\Nto the web and check them out.
Dialogue: 0,0:02:28.09,0:02:32.18,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Traders on the Iowa Electronic\NMarkets buy and sell shares
Dialogue: 0,0:02:32.18,0:02:35.78,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,of political candidates,\Nand the prices of the shares
Dialogue: 0,0:02:35.78,0:02:39.28,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,can be used to predict\Nthe outcomes of elections.
Dialogue: 0,0:02:39.74,0:02:41.52,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Let me give you an example.
Dialogue: 0,0:02:41.100,0:02:44.63,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Here's the case\Nof the Iowa Electronic Markets
Dialogue: 0,0:02:44.63,0:02:47.84,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,from the 2008 election\Nbetween Barack Obama
Dialogue: 0,0:02:47.84,0:02:49.44,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and John McCain.
Dialogue: 0,0:02:49.44,0:02:52.98,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,In these markets,\None Obama share pays you a dollar
Dialogue: 0,0:02:52.98,0:02:56.47,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,if Obama wins and pays you\Nnothing otherwise.
Dialogue: 0,0:02:56.47,0:03:00.10,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,One McCain share pays you a dollar\Nif you hold the share
Dialogue: 0,0:03:00.10,0:03:03.50,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and McCain wins,\Nand pays zero if he loses.
Dialogue: 0,0:03:03.94,0:03:07.72,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Now, suppose you think Obama\Nhas an 80% chance of winning
Dialogue: 0,0:03:07.72,0:03:10.62,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that election, how much\Nwould you be willing to pay
Dialogue: 0,0:03:10.62,0:03:12.43,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,for an Obama share?
Dialogue: 0,0:03:12.46,0:03:15.76,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Well, if an Obama share\Npays a dollar if Obama wins
Dialogue: 0,0:03:15.76,0:03:18.46,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and he has an 80% chance\Nof winning,
Dialogue: 0,0:03:18.46,0:03:21.15,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,then that share is worth 80 cents.
Dialogue: 0,0:03:21.15,0:03:23.22,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,You would be willing to pay\Nup to 80 cents
Dialogue: 0,0:03:23.22,0:03:24.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,for such an Obama share.
Dialogue: 0,0:03:25.72,0:03:28.11,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Suppose you enter this market\Nand you find
Dialogue: 0,0:03:28.11,0:03:32.48,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that these Obama shares\Nare selling for 65 cents,
Dialogue: 0,0:03:32.48,0:03:34.91,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,well, that's a buying opportunity.
Dialogue: 0,0:03:34.91,0:03:37.50,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Something which you think\Nis worth 80 cents
Dialogue: 0,0:03:37.50,0:03:41.71,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,is selling for 65, so then,\Nyou should buy Obama shares.
Dialogue: 0,0:03:41.71,0:03:44.94,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,In buying the shares, you would\Nbe pushing up their price.
Dialogue: 0,0:03:44.94,0:03:48.88,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,In this way, your predictions,\Nyour information, your opinions
Dialogue: 0,0:03:48.88,0:03:51.06,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,about which candidate\Nis likely to win
Dialogue: 0,0:03:51.06,0:03:54.56,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,become incorporated\Ninto the price of an Obama share.
Dialogue: 0,0:03:55.38,0:03:59.36,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,By the way, suppose you thought\NObama had an 80% chance
Dialogue: 0,0:03:59.36,0:04:03.01,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,of winning but his shares\Nwere selling for 90 cents,
Dialogue: 0,0:04:03.01,0:04:05.91,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,well then, you would want\Nto sell Obama shares.
Dialogue: 0,0:04:05.91,0:04:09.05,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Even if you're an Obama supporter,\Nto make more money
Dialogue: 0,0:04:09.05,0:04:12.30,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,you would sell the Obama shares\Nand buy the McCain shares.
Dialogue: 0,0:04:12.72,0:04:16.36,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Again, in this way, prices come\Nto reflect the information.
Dialogue: 0,0:04:16.58,0:04:19.06,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,There are lots of traders\Nin these markets.
Dialogue: 0,0:04:19.06,0:04:21.14,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,People who are\Nvery politically astute,
Dialogue: 0,0:04:21.14,0:04:23.38,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,who understand\Nthe electoral college
Dialogue: 0,0:04:23.38,0:04:25.36,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and who understand\Nhow elections work
Dialogue: 0,0:04:25.36,0:04:28.57,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and how well or how badly\Na campaign is going.
Dialogue: 0,0:04:28.57,0:04:31.37,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,When these individuals\Nbuy and sell shares,
Dialogue: 0,0:04:31.37,0:04:33.90,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,their information comes\Nto be reflected
Dialogue: 0,0:04:33.90,0:04:35.66,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,in the market prices.
Dialogue: 0,0:04:36.04,0:04:40.27,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Here are the actual prices\Non August 8th, 2008.
Dialogue: 0,0:04:40.27,0:04:44.15,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Obama shares were selling\Nfor 63 cents per share
Dialogue: 0,0:04:44.15,0:04:47.73,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and McCain shares\Nwere selling for 37 cents.
Dialogue: 0,0:04:48.04,0:04:51.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,The market was predicting\Na high likelihood of an Obama win
Dialogue: 0,0:04:51.99,0:04:55.16,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and in fact, that did, of course,\Nturn out to be the case.
Dialogue: 0,0:04:55.16,0:04:57.85,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,In over 20 years of testing\Nthese markets,
Dialogue: 0,0:04:57.85,0:05:00.93,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,in presidential elections,\Ncongressional elections,
Dialogue: 0,0:05:00.93,0:05:03.75,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and state elections,\Nthese market prices
Dialogue: 0,0:05:03.75,0:05:06.63,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,from the Iowa Electronic Markets\Nhave turned out
Dialogue: 0,0:05:06.63,0:05:08.93,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,to be better predictors\Nof the outcomes
Dialogue: 0,0:05:08.93,0:05:11.16,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,than have political polls.
Dialogue: 0,0:05:11.49,0:05:14.19,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,That makes a lot of sense.\NThink about it.
Dialogue: 0,0:05:14.19,0:05:17.04,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,With real money on the line,\Npeople have an incentive
Dialogue: 0,0:05:17.04,0:05:19.21,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,to think carefully\Nwhen they're investing
Dialogue: 0,0:05:19.21,0:05:21.72,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and they have an incentive\Nto collect and process
Dialogue: 0,0:05:21.72,0:05:23.90,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and interpret all\Nof the information
Dialogue: 0,0:05:23.90,0:05:26.76,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,from available all over the world.
Dialogue: 0,0:05:26.76,0:05:29.45,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,The resulting market prices\Nreflect a lot
Dialogue: 0,0:05:29.45,0:05:32.75,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,of deep-seated information\Nand indeed interpretation
Dialogue: 0,0:05:32.75,0:05:35.80,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,in a way which political polls\Nsimply cannot.
Dialogue: 0,0:05:36.59,0:05:38.87,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Similar prediction markets\Nhave been creating
Dialogue: 0,0:05:38.87,0:05:40.60,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,all kinds of things.
Dialogue: 0,0:05:40.60,0:05:44.04,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Some are pretty trivial things,\Nsuch as which actor or actress
Dialogue: 0,0:05:44.04,0:05:48.33,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,is going to win the next Oscar,\Nbut also, firms have begun
Dialogue: 0,0:05:48.33,0:05:50.97,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,experimenting with prediction\Nmarkets to help
Dialogue: 0,0:05:50.97,0:05:54.57,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,from forecast variables,\Nlike their future sales
Dialogue: 0,0:05:54.57,0:05:57.28,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,or which is the better decision,\Nor what will happen
Dialogue: 0,0:05:57.28,0:06:00.74,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,in some particular market\Nor some particular economy.
Dialogue: 0,0:06:01.20,0:06:03.60,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Firms have been using\Nprediction markets
Dialogue: 0,0:06:03.60,0:06:06.27,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,to try to help themselves\Nmake better decisions.
Dialogue: 0,0:06:06.82,0:06:08.60,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Let's give an example.
Dialogue: 0,0:06:08.60,0:06:12.11,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,At the Hollywood Stock Exchange,\Ntraders buy and sell shares
Dialogue: 0,0:06:12.11,0:06:16.22,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and options in movies,\Nmusic, and Oscar contenders.
Dialogue: 0,0:06:16.55,0:06:19.65,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Some 800,000 traders\Ndo this for fun.
Dialogue: 0,0:06:20.12,0:06:22.68,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,They're using make-believe\N"Hollywood dollars"
Dialogue: 0,0:06:22.68,0:06:24.91,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,but they still care enough\Nabout the outcome
Dialogue: 0,0:06:24.91,0:06:28.52,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,to make the prices in these markets\Npretty reliable predictors
Dialogue: 0,0:06:28.52,0:06:30.64,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,of future film profits.
Dialogue: 0,0:06:30.64,0:06:33.09,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Now, although the traders\Nare doing this for fun,
Dialogue: 0,0:06:33.09,0:06:35.70,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,the website is owned\Nand run for profit.
Dialogue: 0,0:06:35.70,0:06:38.11,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,The information,\Nthe implicit predictions
Dialogue: 0,0:06:38.11,0:06:40.94,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,in these prices,\Nthat's valuable to studios
Dialogue: 0,0:06:40.94,0:06:43.92,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,who want to try and understand \Nwhat's going to work
Dialogue: 0,0:06:43.92,0:06:46.59,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,in their next film\Nand what's not going to work.
Dialogue: 0,0:06:46.92,0:06:48.36,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Here is an example.
Dialogue: 0,0:06:48.73,0:06:51.14,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Some of us may believe\Nthat sex sells,
Dialogue: 0,0:06:51.14,0:06:53.11,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,but is that actually the case?
Dialogue: 0,0:06:53.11,0:06:55.13,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Well, on the Hollywood\NStock Exchange,
Dialogue: 0,0:06:55.13,0:06:58.34,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,we can be much more precise\Nusing market prices.
Dialogue: 0,0:06:58.95,0:07:01.59,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Here is some of the trading\Nfor the movie
Dialogue: 0,0:07:01.59,0:07:04.59,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,"Fifty Shades Of Grey"\Nand you can see the price
Dialogue: 0,0:07:04.59,0:07:08.12,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,made a whole bunch of leaps\Nup and then leaps downward.
Dialogue: 0,0:07:08.12,0:07:11.56,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,That's reflecting changing\Nrevenue estimates for the movie.
Dialogue: 0,0:07:11.83,0:07:14.46,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,A leap up came\Nwhen Charlie Hunnam was cast
Dialogue: 0,0:07:14.46,0:07:18.22,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,to play the title role in the movie\Nand then the price did go up.
Dialogue: 0,0:07:18.22,0:07:21.40,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Later on, Charlie dropped out\Nand the price dropped
Dialogue: 0,0:07:21.40,0:07:23.29,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,right back down again.
Dialogue: 0,0:07:23.29,0:07:26.26,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,The prices in these markets\Nare important information
Dialogue: 0,0:07:26.26,0:07:27.58,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,for the studios.
Dialogue: 0,0:07:27.58,0:07:31.29,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,They tell the studios how much\Nare these actors really worth.
Dialogue: 0,0:07:31.29,0:07:34.18,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,If we hire this actor,\Nhow much will revenue
Dialogue: 0,0:07:34.18,0:07:35.97,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,for the movie go up?
Dialogue: 0,0:07:35.97,0:07:38.32,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Are people excited\Nabout a particular actress
Dialogue: 0,0:07:38.32,0:07:41.63,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,in a particular role,\Nwhat about the director?
Dialogue: 0,0:07:41.63,0:07:43.92,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,By using the information\Nand the prices
Dialogue: 0,0:07:43.92,0:07:47.92,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,from the Hollywood Stock Exchange,\Nstudios are able to better cast
Dialogue: 0,0:07:47.92,0:07:50.54,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,their movies and they\Ncan make better decisions.
Dialogue: 0,0:07:51.25,0:07:54.08,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,No prediction process\Nhas perfect accuracy,
Dialogue: 0,0:07:54.08,0:07:56.78,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,but the prices from the Hollywood\NStock Exchange
Dialogue: 0,0:07:56.78,0:07:59.82,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,turn out to be pretty useful,\Nespecially when compared
Dialogue: 0,0:07:59.82,0:08:01.34,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,to other methods.
Dialogue: 0,0:08:01.34,0:08:05.22,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Along here, we have predicted\Nopening revenues as shown
Dialogue: 0,0:08:05.22,0:08:08.34,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,by the prices on the Hollywood\NStock Exchange,
Dialogue: 0,0:08:08.34,0:08:10.91,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and then here we have\Nactual revenues.
Dialogue: 0,0:08:11.23,0:08:14.31,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,If the predicted revenues\Nalways equal the actual,
Dialogue: 0,0:08:14.31,0:08:16.97,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,well then, everything\Nwould be along the red line.
Dialogue: 0,0:08:17.32,0:08:19.65,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,When the actual revenues\Nturn out to be more
Dialogue: 0,0:08:19.65,0:08:22.36,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,than predicted,\Nwe're above the red line.
Dialogue: 0,0:08:22.36,0:08:24.78,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So the original movie,\N"Kings Of Comedy",
Dialogue: 0,0:08:24.78,0:08:28.24,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,was a smash hit because it did\Nmuch better than predicted.
Dialogue: 0,0:08:28.24,0:08:31.67,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,The movie, "The Adventures\Nof Pluto Nash" with Eddie Murphy,
Dialogue: 0,0:08:31.67,0:08:33.24,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,well that was a disaster.
Dialogue: 0,0:08:33.24,0:08:35.32,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,It did much worse than predicted.
Dialogue: 0,0:08:35.60,0:08:37.96,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,On average however,\Nthe predicted revenues
Dialogue: 0,0:08:37.96,0:08:39.94,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,are pretty good indications
Dialogue: 0,0:08:39.94,0:08:42.19,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,of what the actual revenues\Nwould be.
Dialogue: 0,0:08:42.19,0:08:45.43,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And again, that's why the studios\Nlook at these market prices
Dialogue: 0,0:08:45.43,0:08:48.35,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,because they are relatively\Naccurate predictions,
Dialogue: 0,0:08:48.35,0:08:51.10,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,more accurate\Nthan other available measures.
Dialogue: 0,0:08:51.37,0:08:52.92,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Alright, let's conclude.
Dialogue: 0,0:08:53.19,0:08:56.64,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Market prices reflect information\Nand they convey information.
Dialogue: 0,0:08:57.36,0:09:00.78,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Prices in futures markets,\Ncan signal all kinds of things
Dialogue: 0,0:09:00.78,0:09:04.08,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,such as war in the Middle East,\Ncold weather in Florida,
Dialogue: 0,0:09:04.08,0:09:06.31,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,or who will win the next election.
Dialogue: 0,0:09:06.31,0:09:08.46,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Prediction markets\Nare new types of markets
Dialogue: 0,0:09:08.46,0:09:11.46,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,which have been created\Nto help businesses, governments,
Dialogue: 0,0:09:11.46,0:09:14.10,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and scientists\Npredict future events.
Dialogue: 0,0:09:14.45,0:09:16.15,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Market prices are good ways
Dialogue: 0,0:09:16.15,0:09:18.35,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,of aggregating dispersed\Ninformation
Dialogue: 0,0:09:18.35,0:09:23.08,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and summarizing that information\Nin a single key figure, the price.
Dialogue: 0,0:09:23.61,0:09:25.35,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Thanks.
Dialogue: 0,0:09:25.96,0:09:27.60,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,- [Narrator] If you want\Nto test yourself,
Dialogue: 0,0:09:27.60,0:09:29.58,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,click Practice Questions,
Dialogue: 0,0:09:29.58,0:09:33.25,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,or if you're ready\Nto move on, just click Next Video.
Dialogue: 0,0:09:33.25,0:09:37.64,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,♪ [music] ♪