WEBVTT

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I'm going to start
on a slightly somber note.

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Two thousand and seven, five years ago,

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my wife gets diagnosed with breast cancer.

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Stage IIB.

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Now, looking back, the most
harrowing part of that experience

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was not just the hospital visits --

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these were very painful
for my wife, understandably so.

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It was not even the initial shock
of knowing that she had breast cancer

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at just 39 years old,

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absolutely no history
of cancer in her family.

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The most horrifying and agonizing part
of the whole experience

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was we were making decisions
after decisions after decisions

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that were being thrust upon us.

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Should it be a mastectomy?
Should it be a lumpectomy?

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Should it be a more
aggressive form of treatment,

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given that it was stage IIB?

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With all the side effects?

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Or should it be a less
aggressive form of treatment?

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And these were being thrust
upon us by the doctors.

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Now you could ask this question,

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why were the doctors doing this?

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A simplistic answer would be,

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the doctors are doing this

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because they want to protect
themselves legally.

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I think that is too simplistic.

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These are well-meaning doctors,

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some of them have gone on
to become very good friends.

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They probably were simply
following the wisdom

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that has come down through the ages,

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this adage that when
you're making decisions,

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especially decisions of importance,

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it's best to be in charge,
it's best to be in control,

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it's best to be in the driver's seat.

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And we were certainly
in the driver's seat,

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making all these decisions.

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And let me tell you --
if some of you have been there,

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it was a most agonizing
and harrowing experience.

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Which got me thinking.

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I said, is there any validity
to this whole adage

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that when you're making decisions,

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it's best to take the driver's seat,

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be in charge, be in control?

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Or are there contexts
where we're far better off

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taking the passenger's seat

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and have someone else drive?

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For example, a trusted financial advisor,

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could be a trusted doctor, etc.

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And since I study human decision making,

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I said, I'm going to run some studies

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to find some answers.

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And I'm going to share one
of these studies with you today.

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So, imagine that all of you
are participants in the study.

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I want to tell you that
what you're going to do in the study is,

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you're going to drink a cup of tea.

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If you're wondering why, I'll tell you why
in a few seconds from now.

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You are going to solve
a series of puzzles,

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and I'm going to show you examples
of these puzzles momentarily.

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And the more puzzles you solve,

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the greater the chances
that you'll win some prizes.

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Now, why do you have to consume the tea?

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Why? Because it makes a lot of sense:

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In order to solve these puzzles
effectively, if you think about it,

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your mind needs to be in two states
simultaneously, right?

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It needs to be alert,

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for which caffeine is very good.

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Simultaneously, it needs to be calm --

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not agitated, calm --

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for which chamomile is very good.

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Now comes the between-subjects design,

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the AB design, the AB testing.

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So what I'm going to do is randomly
assign you to one of two groups.

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So imagine that there is
an imaginary line out here,

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so everyone here will be group A,

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everyone out here will be group B.

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Now, for you folks, what I'm going to do
is I'm going to show you these two teas,

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and I'll go ahead and ask you
to choose your tea.

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So you can choose whichever tea you want.

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You can decide, what is your mental state:

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OK, I choose the caffeinated tea,

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I choose the chamomile tea.

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So you're going to be in charge,
you're going to be in control,

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you're going to be in the driver's seat.

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You folks, I'm going to show you
these two teas,

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but you don't have a choice.

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I'm going to give you
one of these two teas,

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and keep in mind, I'm going
to pick one of these two teas

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at random for you.

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And you know that.

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So if you think about it,
this is an extreme-case scenario,

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because in the real world,

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whenever you are taking passenger's seat,

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very often the driver is going
to be someone you trust,

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an expert, etc.

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So this is an extreme-case scenario.

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Now, you're all going to consume the tea.

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So imagine that you're taking the tea now,

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we'll wait for you to finish the tea.

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We'll give another five minutes
for the ingredient to have its effects.

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Now you're going to have
30 minutes to solve 15 puzzles.

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Here's an example of the puzzle
you're going to solve.

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Anyone in the audience
want to take a stab?

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Audience member: Pulpit!
Baba Shiv: Whoa! OK.

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That's cool.

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Yeah, so what we'd do if we had
you who gave the answer

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as a participant,

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we would have calibrated
the difficulty level

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of the puzzles to your expertise.

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Because we want
these puzzles to be difficult.

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These are tricky puzzles,

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because your first instinct
is to say "tulip."

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And then you have to unstick yourself.

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Right?

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So these have been calibrated
to your level of expertise,

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because we want this to be difficult,

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and I'll tell you why, momentarily.

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Now, here's another example.

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Anyone? This is much more difficult.

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Audience member: Embark.
BS: Yeah. Wow! OK.

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So, yeah, so this is, again, difficult.

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You'll say "kamber," then you'll go,
"maker," and all that,

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and then you can unstick yourself.

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So you have 30 minutes now
to solve these 15 puzzles.

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Now, the question we're asking
here is, in terms of the outcome --

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and it comes in the number
of puzzles solved --

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will you in the driver's seat
end up solving more puzzles

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because you are in control,

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you could decide which tea
you would choose,

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or would you be better off,

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in terms of the number of puzzles solved?

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And, systemically, what we will show,

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across a series of studies,

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is that you, the passengers,

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even though the tea
was picked for you at random,

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will end up solving
more puzzles than you, the drivers.

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We also observe another thing,

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and that is, you folks not only
are solving fewer puzzles,

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you're also putting less juice
into the task -- less effort,

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you're less persistent, and so on.

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How do we know that?

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Well, we have two objective measures.

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One is, what is the time,
on average, you're taking

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in attempting to solve these puzzles?

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You will spend less time compared to you.

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Second, you have
30 minutes to solve these;

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are you taking the entire 30 minutes

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or are you giving up
before the 30 minutes elapse?

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You will be more likely to give up
before the 30 minutes elapse,

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compared to you.

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So you're putting in less juice,

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and therefore, the outcome:
fewer puzzles solved.

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That brings us now to:
why does this happen?

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And under what situations -- when --
would we see this pattern of results

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where the passenger is going to show
better, more favorable outcomes,

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compared to the driver?

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It all has to do with when you face
what I call the INCA.

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It's an acronym that stands for the nature
of the feedback you're getting

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after you made the decision.

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So if you think about it,
in this particular puzzle task --

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it could happen in investing
in the stock market,

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very volatile out there,

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it could be the medical situation --

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the feedback here is immediate.

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You know the feedback,
whether you're solving the puzzles or not.

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Right? Second, it is negative.

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Remember, the deck
was stacked against you,

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in terms of the difficulty
level of these puzzles.

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And this can happen in the medical domain.

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For example, very early on
in the treatment,

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things are negative, the feedback,
before things become positive.

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Right? It can happen in the stock market.

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Volatile stock market, getting negative
feedback, it is also immediate.

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And the feedback in all these cases
is concrete, it's unambiguous;

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you know if you've solved
the puzzles or not.

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Now, the added one,

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apart from this immediacy,
negative, this concreteness --

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now you have a sense of agency.

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You were responsible for your decision.

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So what do you do?

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You focus on the foregone option.

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You say, you know what?

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I should have chosen the other tea.

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(Laughter)

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That casts your decision in doubt,

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reduces the confidence
you have in the decision,

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the confidence you have
in the performance,

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the performance in terms
of solving the puzzles.

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And therefore less juice into the task,

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fewer puzzles solved

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and less favorable outcomes
compared to you folks.

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And this can happen in the medical
domain, if you think about it, right?

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A patient in the driver's
seat, for example.

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Less juice, which means
keeping herself or himself

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less physically fit, physically active
to hasten the recovery process,

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which is what is often advocated.

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You probably wouldn't do that.

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And therefore, there are times
when you're facing the INCA,

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when the feedback is going
to be immediate, negative, concrete

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and you have the sense of agency,

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where you're far better off
taking the passenger's seat

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and have someone else drive.

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Now, I started off on a somber note.

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I want to finish up on a more upbeat note.

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It has now been five years,
slightly more than five years,

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and the good news, thank God,
is that the cancer is still in remission.

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So it all ends well.

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But one thing I didn't mention
was that very early on into her treatment,

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my wife and I decided
that we would take the passenger's seat.

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And that made so much of a difference

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in terms of the peace of mind
that came with that;

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we could focus on her recovery.

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We let the doctors make all the decisions

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and take the driver's seat.

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Thank you.

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(Applause)