0:00:00.542,0:00:03.674 I want to start on a slightly somber note. 0:00:03.674,0:00:07.447 Two thousand and seven, five years ago, 0:00:07.447,0:00:10.493 my wife gets diagnosed with breast cancer, 0:00:10.493,0:00:13.543 stage IIB. 0:00:13.543,0:00:15.694 Now, looking back, the most harrowing 0:00:15.694,0:00:16.838 part of that experience 0:00:16.838,0:00:18.950 was not just the hospital visits -- 0:00:18.950,0:00:22.162 these were very painful for my wife, understandably so. 0:00:22.162,0:00:23.984 It was not even the initial shock of knowing 0:00:23.984,0:00:26.088 that she had breast cancer, just 39 years old, 0:00:26.088,0:00:30.128 absolutely no history of cancer in her family. 0:00:30.128,0:00:33.197 The most horrifying and agonizing part 0:00:33.197,0:00:35.861 of the whole experience was we were making 0:00:35.861,0:00:37.766 decisions after decisions after decisions 0:00:37.766,0:00:39.834 that were being thrust upon us. 0:00:39.834,0:00:43.020 Should it be a mastectomy? Should it be a lumpectomy? 0:00:43.020,0:00:45.396 Should it be a more aggressive form of treatment, 0:00:45.396,0:00:47.277 given that it was stage IIB? 0:00:47.277,0:00:48.813 With all the side effects? 0:00:48.813,0:00:51.701 Or should it be a less aggressive form of treatment? 0:00:51.701,0:00:53.899 And these were being pressed upon us 0:00:53.899,0:00:56.175 by the doctors. 0:00:56.175,0:00:57.642 Now, you could ask this question, 0:00:57.642,0:00:59.308 why were the doctors doing this? 0:00:59.308,0:01:01.091 Now, a simplistic answer would be, 0:01:01.091,0:01:05.459 the doctors are doing this because they want to protect themselves legally. 0:01:05.459,0:01:07.182 I think that is too simplistic. 0:01:07.182,0:01:08.659 These are well-meaning doctors, 0:01:08.659,0:01:10.698 some of them have gone on to become very good friends. 0:01:10.698,0:01:12.835 They probably were simply following the wisdom 0:01:12.835,0:01:16.643 that has come down the ages, this adage that when you're making decisions, 0:01:16.643,0:01:19.066 especially decisions of importance, 0:01:19.066,0:01:22.005 it's best to be in charge, it's best to be in control, 0:01:22.005,0:01:24.998 it's best to be in the driver's seat. 0:01:24.998,0:01:27.055 And we were certainly in the driver's seat, 0:01:27.055,0:01:28.885 making all these decisions, and let me tell you, 0:01:28.885,0:01:30.420 if some of you had been there, 0:01:30.420,0:01:34.292 it was a most agonizing and harrowing experience. 0:01:34.292,0:01:35.741 Which got me thinking. 0:01:35.741,0:01:37.303 I said, is there any validity to 0:01:37.303,0:01:40.893 this whole adage that when you're making decisions, 0:01:40.893,0:01:43.285 it's best to take the driver's seat, 0:01:43.285,0:01:44.549 be in charge, be in control? 0:01:44.549,0:01:48.093 Or are there contexts where we're far better off 0:01:48.093,0:01:51.166 taking the passenger's seat and have someone else drive? 0:01:51.166,0:01:52.921 For example, a trusted financial advisor, 0:01:52.921,0:01:55.981 could be a trusted doctor, etc. 0:01:55.981,0:01:58.133 And since I study human decision making, 0:01:58.133,0:02:01.317 I said, I'm going to run some studies 0:02:01.317,0:02:02.797 to find some answers. 0:02:02.797,0:02:05.029 And I'm going to share one of these studies with you today. 0:02:05.029,0:02:09.277 So, imagine that all of you are participants in the study. 0:02:09.277,0:02:12.454 I want to tell you that what you're going to do in the study is 0:02:12.454,0:02:14.989 you're going to drink a cup of tea. 0:02:14.989,0:02:19.122 If you're wondering why, I'll tell you why in a few seconds from now. 0:02:19.122,0:02:21.742 You are going to solve a series of puzzles, 0:02:21.742,0:02:25.671 and I'm going to show you examples of these puzzles momentarily. 0:02:25.671,0:02:27.286 And the more puzzles you solve, 0:02:27.286,0:02:30.676 the greater the chances that you'll win some prizes. 0:02:30.676,0:02:32.884 Now, why do you have to consume the tea? 0:02:32.884,0:02:34.388 Why? Because it makes a lot of sense. 0:02:34.388,0:02:37.124 In order to solve these puzzles effectively, 0:02:37.124,0:02:40.772 if you think about it, your mind needs to be in two states simultaneously. 0:02:40.772,0:02:43.847 Right? It needs to be alert, 0:02:43.847,0:02:46.709 for which caffeine is very good. 0:02:46.709,0:02:49.653 Simultaneously, it needs to be calm. 0:02:49.653,0:02:55.341 Not agitated, calm. For which chamomile is very good. 0:02:55.341,0:02:58.196 Now comes the between-subjects design, 0:02:58.196,0:02:59.676 the AB design, the AB testing. 0:02:59.676,0:03:01.452 So what I'm going to do is randomly assign you 0:03:01.452,0:03:03.453 to one of two groups. 0:03:03.453,0:03:06.196 So imagine that there is an imaginary line out here, 0:03:06.196,0:03:09.229 so everyone here will be group A, 0:03:09.229,0:03:11.764 everyone out here will be group B. 0:03:11.764,0:03:14.973 Now, for you folks, what I'm going to do is 0:03:14.973,0:03:16.876 I'm going to show you these two teas, 0:03:16.876,0:03:19.004 and I'm asking you, I'll go ahead and ask you, 0:03:19.004,0:03:21.765 to choose your tea. So you can choose which of the two tea you want. 0:03:21.765,0:03:24.045 You can decide, what is your mental state: 0:03:24.045,0:03:26.058 Okay, I'm going to choose the caffeinated tea, 0:03:26.058,0:03:27.266 I'm going to choose the chamomile tea. 0:03:27.266,0:03:28.688 So you're going to be in charge, 0:03:28.688,0:03:32.509 you're going to be in control, you're going to be in the driver's seat. 0:03:32.509,0:03:35.728 You folks, I'm going to show you these two teas, 0:03:35.728,0:03:37.821 but you don't have a choice. 0:03:37.821,0:03:40.072 I'm going to give you one of these two teas, 0:03:40.072,0:03:42.296 and keep in mind, I'm going to pick one of these 0:03:42.296,0:03:44.238 two teas at random for you. 0:03:44.238,0:03:45.970 And you know that. 0:03:45.970,0:03:48.619 So if you think about it, this is an extreme case scenario, 0:03:48.619,0:03:49.867 because in the real world, 0:03:49.867,0:03:52.018 whenever you are taking passenger's seat, 0:03:52.018,0:03:54.539 very often the driver is going to be someone you trust, 0:03:54.539,0:03:59.059 an expert, etc. So this is an extreme case scenario. 0:03:59.059,0:04:04.020 Now, you're all going to consume the tea. 0:04:04.020,0:04:05.410 So imagine that you are taking the tea now, 0:04:05.410,0:04:07.363 we'll wait for you to finish the tea. 0:04:07.363,0:04:11.229 We'll give another five minutes for the ingredient to have its effects. 0:04:11.229,0:04:16.887 Now you're going to have 30 minutes to solve 15 puzzles. 0:04:16.887,0:04:19.953 Here's an example of the puzzle you're going to solve. 0:04:19.953,0:04:22.274 Anyone in the audience want to take a stab? 0:04:22.274,0:04:24.289 (Audience: Pulpit.) Baba Shiv: Whoa! 0:04:24.289,0:04:25.898 Okay, that's cool. 0:04:25.898,0:04:28.491 Yeah, so what we do if we had you, who will get the answer, 0:04:28.491,0:04:32.634 as a participant, we would have calibrated the difficulty level 0:04:32.634,0:04:34.593 of the puzzles to your expertise. 0:04:34.593,0:04:36.673 Because we want these puzzles to be difficult. 0:04:36.673,0:04:39.185 These are tricky puzzles because your first instinct 0:04:39.185,0:04:43.789 is to say "tulip," and then you have to unstick yourself. 0:04:43.789,0:04:47.286 Right? So these have been calibrated to your level of expertise. 0:04:47.286,0:04:51.310 Because we want this to be difficult, and I'll tell you why momentarily. 0:04:51.310,0:04:53.790 Now, here's another example. 0:04:53.790,0:04:56.041 Anyone? It's much more difficult. 0:04:56.041,0:04:58.249 (Audience: Embark.) BS: Yeah, wow. Okay. 0:04:58.249,0:05:00.186 So, yeah, so this is again difficult. 0:05:00.186,0:05:01.896 You will say "kambar," then you will have to go, "maker," 0:05:01.896,0:05:03.921 and all that, and then you can unstick yourself. 0:05:03.921,0:05:08.323 Okay, so you have 30 minutes now to solve these 15 puzzles. 0:05:08.323,0:05:10.747 Now, the question we're asking here 0:05:10.747,0:05:12.825 is in terms of the outcome, 0:05:12.825,0:05:14.633 in terms of the number of puzzles solved, 0:05:14.633,0:05:17.625 will you in the driver's seat 0:05:17.625,0:05:19.465 end up solving more puzzles, 0:05:19.465,0:05:22.449 because you are in control, you could decide which tea you will choose, 0:05:22.449,0:05:24.714 or would you be better off, 0:05:24.714,0:05:27.184 in terms of the number of puzzles solved? 0:05:27.184,0:05:30.052 And systemically what we will show, 0:05:30.052,0:05:31.492 across a series of studies, 0:05:31.492,0:05:33.675 is that you, the passengers, 0:05:33.675,0:05:37.305 even though the tea was picked for you at random, 0:05:37.305,0:05:41.491 will end up solving more puzzles than you, the drivers. 0:05:41.491,0:05:44.516 We also observe another thing, 0:05:44.516,0:05:46.764 and that is, you folks not only are solving fewer puzzles, 0:05:46.764,0:05:49.715 you're also putting less juice into the task. 0:05:49.715,0:05:52.611 Less effort, you're less persistent, and so on. 0:05:52.611,0:05:53.754 How do you know that? 0:05:53.754,0:05:56.323 Well we have two objective measures. 0:05:56.323,0:05:59.194 One is, what is the time, on average, you're taking 0:05:59.194,0:06:01.123 in attempting to solve these puzzles? 0:06:01.123,0:06:04.779 You will spend less time compared to you. 0:06:04.779,0:06:06.827 Second, you have 30 minutes to solve these, 0:06:06.827,0:06:08.795 are you taking the entire 30 minutes, or are you giving up 0:06:08.795,0:06:10.324 before the 30 minutes elapse? 0:06:10.324,0:06:15.329 You will be more likely to give up before the 30 minutes elapse compared to you. 0:06:15.337,0:06:18.246 So, you're putting in less juice, and therefore the outcome: 0:06:18.246,0:06:21.846 fewer puzzles solved. 0:06:21.846,0:06:26.047 Now, that brings us now to, why does this happen? 0:06:26.047,0:06:30.247 And under what situations, when would we see this pattern of results 0:06:30.247,0:06:34.128 where the passenger is going to show better, more favorable outcomes 0:06:34.128,0:06:36.868 compared to the driver? 0:06:36.868,0:06:41.828 It all has to do with when you face what I call the INCA. 0:06:41.828,0:06:43.947 It's an acronym that stands for 0:06:43.947,0:06:48.036 the nature of the feedback you're getting after you've made the decision. 0:06:48.036,0:06:50.651 So, if you think about it, in this particular puzzle task, 0:06:50.651,0:06:52.531 it could happen in investing in the stock market, 0:06:52.531,0:06:55.043 very volatile out there, it could be the medical situation -- 0:06:55.043,0:06:57.886 the feedback here is immediate. 0:06:57.886,0:07:01.339 You know the feedback, whether you're solving the puzzles or not. 0:07:01.339,0:07:03.853 Right? Second, it is negative. 0:07:03.853,0:07:06.432 Remember, the deck was stacked against you. 0:07:06.432,0:07:08.999 In terms of the difficulty level of these puzzles. 0:07:08.999,0:07:10.719 And this can happen in the medical domain. 0:07:10.719,0:07:12.807 For example, very early on in the treatment, 0:07:12.807,0:07:16.223 things are negative, the feedback, before things become positive. 0:07:16.223,0:07:18.104 Right? It can happen in the stock market. 0:07:18.104,0:07:21.727 Volatile stock market, getting negative feedback that's also immediate. 0:07:21.727,0:07:24.583 And the feedback in all these cases is concrete. 0:07:24.583,0:07:27.801 It's not ambiguous; you know if you've solved the puzzles or not. 0:07:27.801,0:07:31.755 Now, the added one, apart from this immediacy, 0:07:31.755,0:07:35.108 negative, this concreteness, 0:07:35.108,0:07:39.004 now you have a sense of agency. 0:07:39.004,0:07:41.974 You were responsible for your decision. 0:07:41.974,0:07:43.368 So what do you do? 0:07:43.368,0:07:46.032 You focus on the foregone option. 0:07:46.032,0:07:49.712 You say, you know what? I should have chosen the other tea. 0:07:49.712,0:07:52.908 (Laughter) 0:07:52.908,0:07:55.654 That casts your decision in doubt, 0:07:55.654,0:07:58.147 reduces the confidence you have in the decision, 0:07:58.147,0:08:00.523 reduces the confidence you have in the performance, 0:08:00.523,0:08:02.499 the performance in terms of solving the puzzles. 0:08:02.499,0:08:04.827 And therefore less juice into the task, 0:08:04.827,0:08:09.739 fewer puzzles solved, a less favorable outcome compared to you folks. 0:08:09.739,0:08:12.147 And this can happen in the medical domain, if you think about it. 0:08:12.147,0:08:14.411 Right? A patient in the driver's seat, for example. 0:08:14.411,0:08:17.850 Less juice, which means keeping herself or himself 0:08:17.850,0:08:21.939 less physically fit, physically active to hasten the recovery process, 0:08:21.939,0:08:25.656 which is what is often advocated. You probably wouldn't do that. 0:08:25.656,0:08:30.795 And therefore, there are times when you're facing the INCA, 0:08:30.795,0:08:34.651 when the feedback is going to be immediate, negative, 0:08:34.651,0:08:37.107 concrete, and you have the sense of agency, 0:08:37.107,0:08:40.091 where you're far better off taking the passenger's seat 0:08:40.091,0:08:43.676 and have someone else drive. 0:08:43.676,0:08:44.844 Now, I started off 0:08:44.844,0:08:46.828 on the somber note. 0:08:46.828,0:08:48.500 I want to finish up on a more upbeat note. 0:08:48.500,0:08:51.912 It has now been five years, slightly more than five years, 0:08:51.912,0:08:53.640 and the good news, thank God, 0:08:53.640,0:08:58.424 is that the cancer is still in remission. 0:08:58.424,0:09:00.561 So it all ends well, 0:09:00.561,0:09:03.121 but one thing I didn't mention was 0:09:03.121,0:09:06.928 that very early on into her treatment, 0:09:06.928,0:09:10.738 my wife and I decided that we will take the passenger's seat. 0:09:10.738,0:09:12.982 And that made so much of a difference 0:09:12.982,0:09:15.738 in terms of the peace of mind that came with that, 0:09:15.738,0:09:17.481 we could focus on her recovery. 0:09:17.481,0:09:20.449 We let the doctors make all the decisions, 0:09:20.449,0:09:22.546 take the driver's seat. 0:09:22.546,0:09:24.289 Thank you. 0:09:24.289,0:09:27.092 (Applause)