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十年前，我寫咗一本書

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叫做 「 我哋最後世紀？ 」問號

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我嘅出版商將問號刪咗

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（笑聲）

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美國出版商將題目改咗做

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「 我哋最後一個鐘 」

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（笑聲）

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美國人鍾意即時行樂，將事情倒轉嚟睇

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（笑聲）

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我嘅主題係噉樣嘅：

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我哋嘅地球已經有四十五億年歷史

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但過去一百年嚟係特別嘅

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呢個係有史以嚟第一次
有一個物種，即係我哋人類

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將呢個星球嘅未來掌握喺自己手裏面

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睇返地球歷史

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威脅絕大部分都係嚟自大自然

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疾病、地震、隕石撞擊等等

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但係由宜家開始
最大嘅威脅嚟自於我哋自己

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並且宜家，唔單止核威脅

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喺我哋全球化嘅世界裏面

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網路故障可以癱瘓全球

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航班令流行病
可以喺幾日之內喺全世界傳播

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並且社會媒體可以散佈恐慌同謠言

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傳播速度同光速有得輝

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我哋會為到細小嘅威脅而焦慮

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冇乜可能發生嘅空難、食物嘅致癌物質

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低水平輻射等等

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但係我哋同我哋嘅政治領袖
都唔肯面對災難情景

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好彩最壞嘅仲未發生

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確實，佢哋應該唔會發生

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但係如果有件潛在毀滅性嘅事發生

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噉就值得我哋持續開支

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防止嗰件事發生
即使件事唔太可能發生都好

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就好似我哋會幫間屋買火險一樣

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道高一尺魔高一丈

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科學俾我哋更加多嘅力量同願望嘅同時

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科學可以係好危險

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我哋於是更加經唔起考驗

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幾十年後，幾百萬嘅人會有能力

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濫用發展一日千里嘅生物科技

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就好似宜家嘅人濫用網絡科技一樣

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Freeman Dyson 喺一場 TED 演講入面

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預見小朋友設計同創造新嘅生物

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就好似佢嗰代人當化學實驗遊戲噉玩

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當然，呢樣可能只會喺科幻小說出現

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但亦有可能係佢預言嘅情景︰

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我哋嘅生態、以至物種
一定唔會平安無事咁長期生存

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例如，有一啲生態學嘅極端人士

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好似 Gaia 咁

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佢認為人類幾量越少
會對我哋嘅星球越好

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如果人類掌握咗 2050 年
就會全世界廣泛使用嘅合成生物技術

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會點樣？

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到嗰個時候

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其他嘅科幻小說裏面所提到嘅噩夢

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或者會成為現實

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沉默嘅機器人變得瘋狂

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網路有自己嘅思想，威脅我哋全人類

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噉，我哋可以通過規管
去避免呢啲危機嗎？

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我哋確實要去嘗試

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但係呢啲企業都好有競爭性
喺全世界都有生意利益

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太受市場影響

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因為法律

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令可以做嘅嘢
都要搬到去其他地方先做到

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就好似禁毒法律咁
我哋去監管，但始終失敗

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並且地球村將會有
一班蠢嘅人遍佈全世界

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所以，我喺書裏面話

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我哋喺呢個世紀嘅路會比較難行

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我哋社會可能會有一啲難題

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其實係有一半機會面對重大問題

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但係會唔會有可以預見到

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但更加弊、滅絕所有物種嘅事發生？

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當新嘅粒子加速器嘅消息喺上網出現

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一啲人會緊張咁問

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佢會唔會破壞地球

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或者話更弊嘅，將太空空間撕開？

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值得慶倖嘅係，我哋仍然係安全嘅

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我同其他人指出過

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大自然其實已經透過宇宙射線碰撞
做過無數次同樣嘅實驗

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但係科學家喺做研究嘅時候

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必須要小心整咗啲
宇宙從來冇發生過嘅嘢

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生物學家應該避免泄漏

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經過基因改造
具有潛在毀滅後果嘅病原體

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順便講下，我哋
對真正嘅災難之所以特別厭惡

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係源於一個哲學倫理問題

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個問題係：

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想像有兩個場景

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場景一，消滅 90% 人類

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場景二，消滅所有人類

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場景二比場景一壞幾多呢？

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有人會話差十個百分點

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死亡統計係高出十個百分點

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但係我唔會話場景二比較差

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作為一個天文學家

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我唔相信人類只係
成個地球歷史嘅最後一部分

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仲有五十億年

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太陽至會加劇燃燒，步入衰退期

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但宇宙仍然會繼續走落去

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噉樣，後人類嘅進化過程

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喺地球同埋外太空

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可以同達爾文進化論一樣咁長
甚至更加精彩

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其實，未來進化嘅速度會更加快

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呢樣係基於技術上嘅時間嘅考慮

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而並非自物競天擇嘅時間考慮

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所以面對咁大嘅利害關係

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面對十億個危險
我哋都唔應該妥栛一個危險

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因為要記住人類滅絕嘅可能

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一啲俾人提過嘅場景
都可能出自於科幻小說裏邊

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但係其他嘅場景
可能真係會成為現實

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有句重要嘅教誨係講︰

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未知唔等於唔可能

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實際上因為噉樣

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我哋喺劍橋大學成立咗一個中心

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研究點樣降低以上存在嘅風險

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幾個人去思考呢啲潛在災難睇落幾唔錯

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但係我哋需要更加多嘅人幫手

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因為我哋係茫茫宇宙中
一個藍色星球嘅打理人

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呢個星球喺人類出現之前
已經有五十億年嘅歷史

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我哋唔要糟塌呢個星球嘅未來

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我諗引用著名科學屋 
Peter Medawar 嘅一句話收尾

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「 為人類而設嘅鈴鈴

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就好似阿爾卑斯山嘅小牛嘅鈴鈴一樣，

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呢啲鈴鈴就好似掛喺我哋頸上面

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如果佢哋冇發出和諧而有旋律嘅聲音，

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噉就必定係我哋嘅錯。 」

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多謝

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（掌聲）