WEBVTT

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Miaka kumi iliyopita, niliandika kitabu
nilichokipa jina

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"Karne yetu ya mwisho?" Alama ya kuuliza.

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Wachapishaji wa kitabu hiki waliondoa
alama ya kuuliza. (Vicheko)

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Wachapishaji wa Marekani
walibadili jina

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na kuwa "Lisaa Letu la Mwisho".

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Wamarekani hupenda kuridhishwa haraka na
kinyume.

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(Vicheko)

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Na ujumbe wangu ulikuwa huu:

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Dunia yetu imekuwepo kwa karne milioni 45,

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lakini hii hapa ni maalumu ---

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ni ya kwanza ambayo jamii moja, yetu,

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ina mustakabali wa sayari mikononi mwake.

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Zaidi karibia ya historia yote ya Dunia,

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vitisho vimetoka kwenye mazingira,

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magonjwa, mitetemeko ya ardhi na
mengine mengi --

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lakini kuanzia sasa, hatari kubwa
inatoka kwetu.

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Na sasa sio matisho tu ya nuklia;

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kwenye dunia yetu iliyoungana,

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kuvunjika kwa mitandao kunaweza
sambaa duniani;

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usafiri wa anga unaweza kusambaza magonjwa
dunia nzima ndani ya siku;

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na mitandao ya kijamii inaweza kusambaza
vitisho na uzushi

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kihalisi kama kasi ya mwanga.

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Tunagombana sana kuhusu matatizo madogo --

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uwezekano wa ndege kudondoka, 
kemikali kwenye chakula,

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dozi ndogo za mionzi, na kadhalika --

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lakini sisi na wakuu wetu wa siasa

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tupo kwenye kukana kuhusu hali za majanga.

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Bahati nzuri mabaya hayajatokea bado.

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Kweli, pengine hayatatokea.

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Lakini kama tukio lina maafa makubwa,

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linastahili kupewa faida kubwa

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kulinda dhidi yake, hata kama
inaweza isitokee,

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kama tunavyotoa bima ya moto kwenye
nyumba yetu.

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Kama sayansi inavyoleta nguvu kubwa
na ahadi,

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upande wa chini unazidi kuogopesha pia.

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Tunazidi kuwa dhaifu na waoga,

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Ndani ya miongo michache,

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mamilioni watakuwa na uwezo,

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wa kutumia vibaya bioteknolojia inayokua,

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Kama wanavyotumia teknolojia vibaya leo.

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Freeman Dyson, kwenye mazungumzo ya TED,

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aliona kuwa huko mbeleni watoto
wataweza kutengeneza viumbe hai

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kama ambavyo kizazi chake
kilivyocheza na seti za kemia.

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Hii inaweza kuwa sayansi ya kubuniwa
zaidi,

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lakini tuna amini itatokea hata kwa kiasi,

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mazingira yetu na hata viumbe vyetu

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hawataweza kuishi muda mrefu
bila kubadilika,

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Mfano, kuna wanamazingira wengi
wa msimamo mkali,

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wanaomini kua itafaa kwa sayari yetu,

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kwa Gaia, kama kutakuwa na binadamu
wachache.

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Nini kitatokea kama watu hawa wakifuzu

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ufundi wa kibiolojia za sanisia

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ambao utasambaa ifikapo mwaka 2050?

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Kipindi hicho, matisho mengine ya sayansi
ya kubuniwa

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yanaweza kugeuka kweli:

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roboti za kijinga kujiongoza zenyewe,

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au mtandao unaotumia akili yake yenyewe

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unatutisha sote.

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Je, tutaweza kujikinga na hizi
hatari kwa sheria?

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Itabidi tujaribu, lakini hizi biashara

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zina ushindani mkubwa, zipo dunia nzima,

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na zinasukumwa na mbinu za biashara,

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kwa kila kinachoweza kufanyika,
kitafanyika mahali,

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bila kujali sheria zinasema nini.

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Ni kama sheria za madawa -- tunajaribu
kuzipunguza, lakini hatuwezi.

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Na kijiji cha dunia kitakua na
wajinga wa kijiji,

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nao watakua na masafa ya dunia.

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Kama nilivyosema kwenye kitabu changu,

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tutakuwa na mwendo mtata kwenye hii karne.

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Kunaweza kuwa na vikwazo kwenye
jamii yetu --

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kweli, asilimia 50 ya vikwazo zikali.

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Lakini kuna matukio ya maana

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yanayoweza kuwa mabaya zaidi,

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matukio yanayoweza kutoa maisha yote?

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Pale punje mpya chochezi iikija mtandaoni,

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badhi ya watu walijiuliza kwa bidii,

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vinaweza kuharibu dunia, au mbaya zaidi,

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kuharibu kabisa mfumo wa anga?

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Bahati nzuri, tuliweza kujihakikishia.

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Mimi na wenzangu tulisema kua asili

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imefanya majaribio kama hayo

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mara zilioni tayari,

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kutumia kugongana kwa miali ya anga.

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Lakini wanasayansi wanatakiwa wawe makini

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kuhusu majaribio yanayotengeneza hali

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bila uhakiki kwenye dunia ya halisi.

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Wanabiolojia wanatakiwa kuepuka kuachia
uharibifu muhimu wa

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vimelea vilivyoundwa kijenetiki.

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Na pia, karaha yetu ya kipekee

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kwenye hatari ya mafaa makubwa

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inatokana na swali hili kubwa la msingi,

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nalo ni;

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Zingatia hali mbili.

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Hali A inaua asilimia 90 ya binadamu.

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Hali B inaua asilimia 100.

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Je B ni mbaya kiasi gani kuliko A?

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Baadhi watasema ni asilimia 10 mbaya
zaidi.

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Idadi ni asilimia 10 zaidi.

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Lakini nasema kua B ni mbaya zaidi.

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Kama mwanafalaki, siamini

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binadamu ni mwisho wa hadithi.

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Ni miaka bilioni tano mpaka jua liripuke,

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na ulimwengu ungeendelea kuwepo,

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kwahiyo mageuzi ya binadamu wa baadae,

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hapa duniani na kwingineko mbali,

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inaweza kuwa ndefu kama harakati
ya Darwinian

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iliyokuja kwetu, na nzuri zaidi.

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Na kweli, mageuzi ya mbeleni
yatatokea kwa haraka zaidi,

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kwenye kipimo cha mda cha teknolojia,

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sio wa uchaguzi wa asili.

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Kwahiyo tupo katika mwanga wa
hicho kipimo,

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kutokupokea hata hatari moja kati
ya billioni

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ambayo kupotea kwa binadamu kutasababisha

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huu uwezekano mkubwa.

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Baadhi ya hali ambazo zilionyesha

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kua kweli zingekua sayansi ya
kubuniwa,

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lakini nyingine zinaweza kuwa ni za kweli.

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Ni msemo muhimu kua vile visivyozoeleka

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sio sawa na vinavyoshindikana,

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na ndio maana, sisi katika Chuo cha
Cambridge,

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tunaanda kitivo cha kujifunza jinsi ya
kuepuka

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hizi hatari kubwa.

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Inaonekana ni ya maana kwa watu wachache

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kuwaza kuhusu haya mafaa yanayoweza
kutokea.

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Na tunahitaji msaada wote tutakaopata
kwa wengine,

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sababu sote ni wahudumu wa,

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kidoti cha bluu kwenye ulimwengu huu
mkubwa,

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sayari yenye karne milioni 50 mbele yake.

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Kwa hiyo tusiharibu mustakabali wetu.

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Na ningependa kumalizia na nukuu

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kutoka kwa mwanasayansi mashuhuri aitwae
Peter Medawar.

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nanukuu "Kengengele zinazolia kwa binadamu

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ni kama zile za mifugo ya Alpine.

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Zimefungwa shingoni mwetu wenyewe,

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na ni juu yetu kama hazitatengeneza

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mfuatano mzuri wa sauti."

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Asanteni sana.

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(Makofi)