1
00:00:00,485 --> 00:00:02,707
Miaka kumi iliyopita, niliandika kitabu
nilichokipa jina

2
00:00:02,707 --> 00:00:05,800
"Karne yetu ya mwisho?" Alama ya kuuliza.

3
00:00:05,800 --> 00:00:09,377
Wachapishaji wa kitabu hiki waliondoa
alama ya kuuliza. (Vicheko)

4
00:00:09,377 --> 00:00:11,259
Wachapishaji wa Marekani
walibadili jina

5
00:00:11,259 --> 00:00:15,168
na kuwa "Lisaa Letu la Mwisho".

6
00:00:15,168 --> 00:00:18,660
Wamarekani hupenda kuridhishwa haraka na
kinyume.

7
00:00:18,660 --> 00:00:20,368
(Vicheko)

8
00:00:20,368 --> 00:00:22,118
Na ujumbe wangu ulikuwa huu:

9
00:00:22,118 --> 00:00:26,284
Dunia yetu imekuwepo kwa karne milioni 45,

10
00:00:26,284 --> 00:00:28,297
lakini hii hapa ni maalumu ---

11
00:00:28,297 --> 00:00:31,313
ni ya kwanza ambayo jamii moja, yetu,

12
00:00:31,313 --> 00:00:34,115
ina mustakabali wa sayari mikononi mwake.

13
00:00:34,115 --> 00:00:36,105
Zaidi karibia ya historia yote ya Dunia,

14
00:00:36,105 --> 00:00:38,041
vitisho vimetoka kwenye mazingira,

15
00:00:38,041 --> 00:00:41,537
magonjwa, mitetemeko ya ardhi na
mengine mengi --

16
00:00:41,537 --> 00:00:47,209
lakini kuanzia sasa, hatari kubwa
inatoka kwetu.

17
00:00:47,209 --> 00:00:50,480
Na sasa sio matisho tu ya nuklia;

18
00:00:50,480 --> 00:00:52,231
kwenye dunia yetu iliyoungana,

19
00:00:52,231 --> 00:00:55,394
kuvunjika kwa mitandao kunaweza
sambaa duniani;

20
00:00:55,394 --> 00:00:59,350
usafiri wa anga unaweza kusambaza magonjwa
dunia nzima ndani ya siku;

21
00:00:59,350 --> 00:01:02,677
na mitandao ya kijamii inaweza kusambaza
vitisho na uzushi

22
00:01:02,677 --> 00:01:05,894
kihalisi kama kasi ya mwanga.

23
00:01:05,894 --> 00:01:09,119
Tunagombana sana kuhusu matatizo madogo --

24
00:01:09,119 --> 00:01:13,150
uwezekano wa ndege kudondoka, 
kemikali kwenye chakula,

25
00:01:13,150 --> 00:01:15,376
dozi ndogo za mionzi, na kadhalika --

26
00:01:15,376 --> 00:01:18,201
lakini sisi na wakuu wetu wa siasa

27
00:01:18,201 --> 00:01:22,404
tupo kwenye kukana kuhusu hali za majanga.

28
00:01:22,404 --> 00:01:25,442
Bahati nzuri mabaya hayajatokea bado.

29
00:01:25,442 --> 00:01:27,638
Kweli, pengine hayatatokea.

30
00:01:27,638 --> 00:01:30,823
Lakini kama tukio lina maafa makubwa,

31
00:01:30,823 --> 00:01:33,691
linastahili kupewa faida kubwa

32
00:01:33,691 --> 00:01:37,527
kulinda dhidi yake, hata kama
inaweza isitokee,

33
00:01:37,527 --> 00:01:42,040
kama tunavyotoa bima ya moto kwenye
nyumba yetu.

34
00:01:42,040 --> 00:01:47,037
Kama sayansi inavyoleta nguvu kubwa
na ahadi,

35
00:01:47,037 --> 00:01:50,903
upande wa chini unazidi kuogopesha pia.

36
00:01:50,903 --> 00:01:53,142
Tunazidi kuwa dhaifu na waoga,

37
00:01:53,142 --> 00:01:54,980
Ndani ya miongo michache,

38
00:01:54,980 --> 00:01:57,210
mamilioni watakuwa na uwezo,

39
00:01:57,210 --> 00:02:00,331
wa kutumia vibaya bioteknolojia inayokua,

40
00:02:00,331 --> 00:02:03,884
Kama wanavyotumia teknolojia vibaya leo.

41
00:02:03,884 --> 00:02:07,083
Freeman Dyson, kwenye mazungumzo ya TED,

42
00:02:07,083 --> 00:02:10,679
aliona kuwa huko mbeleni watoto
wataweza kutengeneza viumbe hai

43
00:02:10,679 --> 00:02:14,104
kama ambavyo kizazi chake
kilivyocheza na seti za kemia.

44
00:02:15,190 --> 00:02:17,718
Hii inaweza kuwa sayansi ya kubuniwa
zaidi,

45
00:02:17,718 --> 00:02:20,901
lakini tuna amini itatokea hata kwa kiasi,

46
00:02:20,901 --> 00:02:23,638
mazingira yetu na hata viumbe vyetu

47
00:02:23,638 --> 00:02:27,627
hawataweza kuishi muda mrefu
bila kubadilika,

48
00:02:27,627 --> 00:02:31,490
Mfano, kuna wanamazingira wengi
wa msimamo mkali,

49
00:02:31,490 --> 00:02:33,999
wanaomini kua itafaa kwa sayari yetu,

50
00:02:33,999 --> 00:02:37,402
kwa Gaia, kama kutakuwa na binadamu
wachache.

51
00:02:37,402 --> 00:02:40,119
Nini kitatokea kama watu hawa wakifuzu

52
00:02:40,119 --> 00:02:42,256
ufundi wa kibiolojia za sanisia

53
00:02:42,256 --> 00:02:45,108
ambao utasambaa ifikapo mwaka 2050?

54
00:02:45,108 --> 00:02:48,150
Kipindi hicho, matisho mengine ya sayansi
ya kubuniwa

55
00:02:48,150 --> 00:02:49,860
yanaweza kugeuka kweli:

56
00:02:49,860 --> 00:02:51,930
roboti za kijinga kujiongoza zenyewe,

57
00:02:51,930 --> 00:02:54,347
au mtandao unaotumia akili yake yenyewe

58
00:02:54,347 --> 00:02:56,936
unatutisha sote.

59
00:02:56,936 --> 00:03:00,206
Je, tutaweza kujikinga na hizi
hatari kwa sheria?

60
00:03:00,206 --> 00:03:02,613
Itabidi tujaribu, lakini hizi biashara

61
00:03:02,613 --> 00:03:06,142
zina ushindani mkubwa, zipo dunia nzima,

62
00:03:06,142 --> 00:03:08,122
na zinasukumwa na mbinu za biashara,

63
00:03:08,122 --> 00:03:11,407
kwa kila kinachoweza kufanyika,
kitafanyika mahali,

64
00:03:11,407 --> 00:03:13,443
bila kujali sheria zinasema nini.

65
00:03:13,443 --> 00:03:16,930
Ni kama sheria za madawa -- tunajaribu
kuzipunguza, lakini hatuwezi.

66
00:03:16,930 --> 00:03:19,974
Na kijiji cha dunia kitakua na
wajinga wa kijiji,

67
00:03:19,974 --> 00:03:23,470
nao watakua na masafa ya dunia.

68
00:03:23,470 --> 00:03:25,761
Kama nilivyosema kwenye kitabu changu,

69
00:03:25,761 --> 00:03:28,650
tutakuwa na mwendo mtata kwenye hii karne.

70
00:03:28,650 --> 00:03:32,140
Kunaweza kuwa na vikwazo kwenye
jamii yetu --

71
00:03:32,140 --> 00:03:36,255
kweli, asilimia 50 ya vikwazo zikali.

72
00:03:36,255 --> 00:03:39,169
Lakini kuna matukio ya maana

73
00:03:39,169 --> 00:03:41,330
yanayoweza kuwa mabaya zaidi,

74
00:03:41,330 --> 00:03:44,760
matukio yanayoweza kutoa maisha yote?

75
00:03:44,760 --> 00:03:47,686
Pale punje mpya chochezi iikija mtandaoni,

76
00:03:47,686 --> 00:03:49,475
badhi ya watu walijiuliza kwa bidii,

77
00:03:49,475 --> 00:03:51,725
vinaweza kuharibu dunia, au mbaya zaidi,

78
00:03:51,725 --> 00:03:54,384
kuharibu kabisa mfumo wa anga?

79
00:03:54,384 --> 00:03:57,927
Bahati nzuri, tuliweza kujihakikishia.

80
00:03:57,927 --> 00:03:59,971
Mimi na wenzangu tulisema kua asili

81
00:03:59,971 --> 00:04:01,904
imefanya majaribio kama hayo

82
00:04:01,904 --> 00:04:04,090
mara zilioni tayari,

83
00:04:04,090 --> 00:04:05,855
kutumia kugongana kwa miali ya anga.

84
00:04:05,855 --> 00:04:08,909
Lakini wanasayansi wanatakiwa wawe makini

85
00:04:08,909 --> 00:04:11,489
kuhusu majaribio yanayotengeneza hali

86
00:04:11,489 --> 00:04:13,972
bila uhakiki kwenye dunia ya halisi.

87
00:04:13,972 --> 00:04:17,395
Wanabiolojia wanatakiwa kuepuka kuachia
uharibifu muhimu wa

88
00:04:17,395 --> 00:04:20,110
vimelea vilivyoundwa kijenetiki.

89
00:04:20,110 --> 00:04:23,627
Na pia, karaha yetu ya kipekee

90
00:04:23,627 --> 00:04:27,088
kwenye hatari ya mafaa makubwa

91
00:04:27,088 --> 00:04:30,363
inatokana na swali hili kubwa la msingi,

92
00:04:30,363 --> 00:04:32,033
nalo ni;

93
00:04:32,033 --> 00:04:34,341
Zingatia hali mbili.

94
00:04:34,341 --> 00:04:39,577
Hali A inaua asilimia 90 ya binadamu.

95
00:04:39,577 --> 00:04:43,473
Hali B inaua asilimia 100.

96
00:04:43,473 --> 00:04:46,391
Je B ni mbaya kiasi gani kuliko A?

97
00:04:46,391 --> 00:04:49,414
Baadhi watasema ni asilimia 10 mbaya
zaidi.

98
00:04:49,414 --> 00:04:52,564
Idadi ni asilimia 10 zaidi.

99
00:04:52,564 --> 00:04:55,470
Lakini nasema kua B ni mbaya zaidi.

100
00:04:55,470 --> 00:04:58,099
Kama mwanafalaki, siamini

101
00:04:58,099 --> 00:05:00,566
binadamu ni mwisho wa hadithi.

102
00:05:00,566 --> 00:05:03,889
Ni miaka bilioni tano mpaka jua liripuke,

103
00:05:03,889 --> 00:05:06,600
na ulimwengu ungeendelea kuwepo,

104
00:05:06,600 --> 00:05:08,892
kwahiyo mageuzi ya binadamu wa baadae,

105
00:05:08,892 --> 00:05:11,082
hapa duniani na kwingineko mbali,

106
00:05:11,082 --> 00:05:13,796
inaweza kuwa ndefu kama harakati
ya Darwinian

107
00:05:13,796 --> 00:05:17,077
iliyokuja kwetu, na nzuri zaidi.

108
00:05:17,077 --> 00:05:19,741
Na kweli, mageuzi ya mbeleni
yatatokea kwa haraka zaidi,

109
00:05:19,741 --> 00:05:21,940
kwenye kipimo cha mda cha teknolojia,

110
00:05:21,940 --> 00:05:24,239
sio wa uchaguzi wa asili.

111
00:05:24,239 --> 00:05:28,434
Kwahiyo tupo katika mwanga wa
hicho kipimo,

112
00:05:28,434 --> 00:05:31,820
kutokupokea hata hatari moja kati
ya billioni

113
00:05:31,820 --> 00:05:34,049
ambayo kupotea kwa binadamu kutasababisha

114
00:05:34,049 --> 00:05:36,359
huu uwezekano mkubwa.

115
00:05:36,359 --> 00:05:38,131
Baadhi ya hali ambazo zilionyesha

116
00:05:38,131 --> 00:05:39,950
kua kweli zingekua sayansi ya
kubuniwa,

117
00:05:39,950 --> 00:05:43,336
lakini nyingine zinaweza kuwa ni za kweli.

118
00:05:43,336 --> 00:05:46,210
Ni msemo muhimu kua vile visivyozoeleka

119
00:05:46,210 --> 00:05:48,907
sio sawa na vinavyoshindikana,

120
00:05:48,907 --> 00:05:51,305
na ndio maana, sisi katika Chuo cha
Cambridge,

121
00:05:51,305 --> 00:05:54,680
tunaanda kitivo cha kujifunza jinsi ya
kuepuka

122
00:05:54,680 --> 00:05:56,712
hizi hatari kubwa.

123
00:05:56,712 --> 00:05:59,775
Inaonekana ni ya maana kwa watu wachache

124
00:05:59,775 --> 00:06:02,091
kuwaza kuhusu haya mafaa yanayoweza
kutokea.

125
00:06:02,091 --> 00:06:05,104
Na tunahitaji msaada wote tutakaopata
kwa wengine,

126
00:06:05,104 --> 00:06:07,583
sababu sote ni wahudumu wa,

127
00:06:07,583 --> 00:06:11,066
kidoti cha bluu kwenye ulimwengu huu
mkubwa,

128
00:06:11,066 --> 00:06:14,444
sayari yenye karne milioni 50 mbele yake.

129
00:06:14,444 --> 00:06:17,000
Kwa hiyo tusiharibu mustakabali wetu.

130
00:06:17,000 --> 00:06:18,795
Na ningependa kumalizia na nukuu

131
00:06:18,795 --> 00:06:22,296
kutoka kwa mwanasayansi mashuhuri aitwae
Peter Medawar.

132
00:06:22,296 --> 00:06:25,569
nanukuu "Kengengele zinazolia kwa binadamu

133
00:06:25,569 --> 00:06:28,213
ni kama zile za mifugo ya Alpine.

134
00:06:28,213 --> 00:06:30,499
Zimefungwa shingoni mwetu wenyewe,

135
00:06:30,499 --> 00:06:33,174
na ni juu yetu kama hazitatengeneza

136
00:06:33,174 --> 00:06:35,305
mfuatano mzuri wa sauti."

137
00:06:35,305 --> 00:06:37,572
Asanteni sana.

138
00:06:37,572 --> 00:06:39,685
(Makofi)