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[MUSIC PLAYING]

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[APPLAUSE]

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ALLAN SAVORY: The
most massive tsunami

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perfect storm is
bearing down upon us.

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This perfect storm is mounting a
grim reality, increasingly grim

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reality.

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And we are facing that
reality with a full belief

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that we can solve our
problems with technology,

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and that's very understandable.

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Now this perfect storm
that we are facing

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is the result of our
rising population, rising

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towards 10 billion people,
land that is turning to desert,

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and of course, climate change.

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Now there's no question
about it at all.

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We will only solve the
problem of replacing

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fossil fuels with technology.

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But fossil fuels-- carbon,
coal, and gas-- are by no means

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the only thing that is
causing climate change.

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Desertification is a
fancy word for land

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that is turning to desert,
and this happens only when

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we create too much bare ground.

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There's no other cause.

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And I intend to focus on
most of the world's land

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that is turning to desert.

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But I have for you a
very simple message

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that offers more hope
than you can imagine.

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We have environments
where humidity is

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guaranteed throughout the year.

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On those, it is
almost impossible

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to create vast areas of bare
ground, no matter what you do.

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Nature covers it up so quickly.

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And we have
environments where we

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have months of humidity
followed by months of dryness,

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and that is where
desertification is occurring.

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Fortunately, with
space technology

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now, we can look
at it from space.

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And when we do, you can see
the proportions fairly well.

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Generally, what you see in
green is not desertifying,

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and what you see in brown is.

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And these are by far the
greatest areas of the Earth.

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About 2/3, I would guess, of
the world is desertifying.

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I took this picture
in the Tihamah Desert

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while 25 millimeters-- that's
an inch of rain-- was falling.

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Think of it in terms
of drums of water,

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each containing 200 liters.

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Over 1,000 drums of water
fell on every hectare

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of that land that day.

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The next day, the
land looked like this.

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Where had that water gone?

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Some of it ran off as flooding.

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But most of the water
that soaked into the soil

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simply evaporated
out again, exactly

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as it does in your garden if
you leave the soil uncovered.

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Now because the fate
of water and carbon

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are tied to soil organic
matter, when we damage soils,

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you give off carbon.

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Carbon goes back
to the atmosphere.

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Now you are told over
and over, repeatedly,

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that desertification
is only occurring

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in arid and semi-arid
areas of the world,

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and that tall grasslands like
this one, in high rainfall,

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are of no consequence.

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But if you do not
look at grasslands

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but look down into
them, you find

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that most of the soil in that
grassland that you've just seen

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is bare and covered
with a crust of algae,

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leading to increased
runoff and evaporation.

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That is the cancer
of desertification

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that we do not recognize
till its terminal form.

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Now we know that desertification
is caused by livestock, mostly

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cattle, sheep, and goats
over-grazing the plants,

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leaving the soil bare,
and giving off methane.

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Almost everybody knows
this from Nobel laureates

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to golf caddies, or was
taught it, as I was.

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Now the environments like you
see here, dusty environments

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in Africa where I grew
up-- and I loved wildlife.

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And so I grew up hating
livestock because of the damage

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they were doing.

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And then my university
education as an ecologist

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reinforced my beliefs.

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Well, I have news for you.

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We were once just as certain
that the world was flat.

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We were wrong then,
and we are wrong again.

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And I want to invite
you now to come along

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on my journey of
re-education and discovery.

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When I was a young man, a
young biologist in Africa,

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I was involved in setting
aside marvelous areas

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as future national parks.

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Now no sooner--
this was the 1950s--

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and no sooner did we
remove the hunting,

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drum beating people to protect
the animals than the land began

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to deteriorate, as you see
in this part that we formed.

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Now no livestock were involved.

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But suspecting that we
had too many elephants

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now, I did the research, and
I proved we had too many.

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And I recommended that we would
have to reduce their numbers

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and bring them down to a level
that the land could sustain.

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Now that was a terrible
decision for me to have to make,

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and it was political
dynamite, frankly.

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So our government
formed a team of experts

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to evaluate my research.

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They did.

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They agreed with me.

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And over the following years,
we shot 40,000 elephants

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to try to stop the damage.

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And it got worse, not better.

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Loving elephants as I do, that
was the saddest and greatest

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blunder of my life, and I
will carry that to my grave.

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One good thing did
come out of it.

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It made me absolutely
determined to devote

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my life to finding solutions.

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When I came to
the United States,

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I got a shock to find
national parks like this one

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desertifying as badly
as anything in Africa.

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And there'd been no livestock
on this land for over 70 years.

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And I found that
American scientists

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had no explanation for
this except that it

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is arid and natural.

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So I then began looking
at all the research

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plots I could over the whole
of the western United States

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where cattle had been
removed to prove that it

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would stop desertification.

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But I found the opposite.

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As we see on this
research station

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where this grassland that
was green in 1961, by 2002

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had changed to that situation.

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And the authors of the
position paper on climate

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change from which I obtained
these pictures attribute

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this change to
unknown processes.

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Clearly, we have
never understood

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what is causing
desertification, which

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has destroyed many civilizations
and now threatens us globally.

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We have never understood it.

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Take one square meter
of soil and make it bare

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like this is down here,
and I promise you,

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you will find it much colder at
dawn and much hotter at midday

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than that same piece of
ground, if it's just covered

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with litter, plant litter.

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You have changed
the microclimate.

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Now by the time you are doing
that and increasing greatly

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the percentage of bare ground
on more than half the world's

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land, you are
changing macroclimate.

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But we have just
simply not understood,

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why was it beginning to
happen 10,000 years ago?

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Why has it accelerated lately?

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We had no understanding of that.

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What we had failed
to understand was

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that the seasonal
humidity environments

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of the world, the soil
and the vegetation,

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developed with very large
numbers of grazing animals,

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and that these grazing
animals developed

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with ferocious
pack-hunting predators.

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Now their main defense
against pack-hunting predators

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is to get into herds.

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And the larger the herd,
the safer the individuals.

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Now large herds dung and
urinate all over their own food,

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and they have to keep moving.

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And it was that movement that
prevented the overgrazing

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of plants, while the
periodic trampling ensured

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good cover of the soil, as we
see where a herd has passed.

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This picture is a typical
seasonal grassland.

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It has just come through
four months of rain,

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and it's now going into
eight months of dry season.

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And watch the change as it
goes into this long dry season.

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Now all of that grass
you see above ground

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has to decay biologically
before the next growing season.

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And if it doesn't, the grassland
and the soil begin to die.

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Now if it does not
decay biologically,

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it shifts to oxidation,
which is a very slow process,

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and this smothers and kills
grasses, leading to a shift

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to woody vegetation and
bare soil releasing carbon.

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To prevent that, we have
traditionally used fire.

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But fire also leaves the
soil bare, releasing carbon.

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And worse than that, burning
one hectare of grassland

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gives off more and more damaging
pollutants than 6,000 cars.

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And we are burning in
Africa, every single year,

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more than one billion
hectares of grasslands,

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and almost nobody
is talking about it.

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We justify the
burning as scientists

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because it does remove
the dead material,

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and it allows the
plants to grow.

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Now looking at this grassland
of ours that has gone dry,

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what can we do to
keep that healthy?

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And bear in mind, I'm talking
of most of the world's land now?

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We cannot reduce animal numbers
to rest it more without causing

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desertification
and climate change.

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We cannot burn it without
causing desertification

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and climate change.

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What are we going to do?

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There is only one option.

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I repeat to you, only one
option left to climatologists

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and scientists, and that
is to do the unthinkable,

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and to use livestock,
bunched and moving,

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as a proxy for former herds
and predators and mimic nature.

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There is no other
alternative left to mankind.

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So let's do that.

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So on this bit of
grassland, we'll

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do it, but just
in the foreground.

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We'll impact it very heavily
with cattle to mimic nature,

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and we've done so,
and look at that.

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All of that grass is
now covering the soil

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as dung, urine, and
litter or mulch,

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as every one of the gardeners
amongst you would understand,

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and that soil is ready to
absorb and hold the rain,

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to store carbon, and
to break down methane.

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And we did that without using
fire to damage the soil,

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and the plants are free to grow.

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When I first realized that we
had no option as scientists

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but to use much vilified
livestock to address climate

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change and desertification, I
was faced with a real dilemma.

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How were we to do it?

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We'd had 10,000 years of
extremely knowledgeable

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pastoralists, bunching
and moving their animals.

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But they had created the great
man-made deserts of the world.

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Then we'd had 100 years
of modern range science,

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and that had accelerated
desertification

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as we first discovered in
Africa and then confirmed

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in the United States,
and as you see

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in this picture of land managed
by the federal government.

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Clearly, more was needed
than bunching and moving

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the animals.

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And humans, over
thousands of years,

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had never been able to deal
with nature's complexity.

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But we biologists and
ecologists had never

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tackled anything
as complex as this.

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So rather than
reinvent the wheel,

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I began studying
other professions

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to see if anybody had.

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And I found they we're
planning techniques

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that I could take and adapt
to our biological need.

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And from those, I
developed what we

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call holistic management and
planned grazing, a planning

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process.

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And that does address all
of nature's complexity

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and our social, environmental,
economic complexity.

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Today, we have a young woman
like this one teaching villages

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in Africa how to put
their animals together

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into larger herds, plan their
grazing, to mimic nature.

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And where we have them hold
their animals overnight--

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we run them in a
predator-friendly manner,

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because we have a lot
of lands, and so on--

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and where they do this
and hold them overnight

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00:14:53,020 --> 00:14:55,110
to prepare the
crop fields, we're

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00:14:55,110 --> 00:14:59,120
getting very great increases
in crop yield as well.

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00:14:59,120 --> 00:15:00,610
Let's look at some results.

252
00:15:00,610 --> 00:15:04,880
This is land close to land
that we manage in Zimbabwe.

253
00:15:04,880 --> 00:15:06,890
It has just come
through four months

254
00:15:06,890 --> 00:15:09,290
of very good rains
it got that year,

255
00:15:09,290 --> 00:15:11,760
and it's going into
the long dry season.

256
00:15:11,760 --> 00:15:14,700
But as you can see, all of
that rain, almost all of it,

257
00:15:14,700 --> 00:15:18,070
has evaporated from
the soil surface.

258
00:15:18,070 --> 00:15:22,430
The river is dry, despite
the rain just having ended,

259
00:15:22,430 --> 00:15:28,950
and we have 150,000 people
on almost permanent food aid.

260
00:15:28,950 --> 00:15:33,610
Now let's go to our land
nearby on the same day

261
00:15:33,610 --> 00:15:36,530
with the s rainfall
and look at that.

262
00:15:36,530 --> 00:15:38,880
Our river is flowing
and healthy and clean.

263
00:15:38,880 --> 00:15:41,490
It's fine.

264
00:15:41,490 --> 00:15:48,020
The production of grass, shrubs,
trees, wildlife, everything

265
00:15:48,020 --> 00:15:49,730
is now more productive.

266
00:15:49,730 --> 00:15:54,280
And we have virtually
no fear of dry years.

267
00:15:54,280 --> 00:16:01,210
And we did that by increasing
the cattle and goats 400%,

268
00:16:01,210 --> 00:16:05,240
planning the grazing to mimic
nature and integrate them

269
00:16:05,240 --> 00:16:08,740
with all the elephants, buffalo,
giraffe, and other animals

270
00:16:08,740 --> 00:16:10,400
that we have.

271
00:16:10,400 --> 00:16:12,990
But before we began, our
land looked like that.

272
00:16:12,990 --> 00:16:16,140


273
00:16:16,140 --> 00:16:22,450
This site was bare and eroding
for over 30 years, regardless

274
00:16:22,450 --> 00:16:24,770
of what rain we got.

275
00:16:24,770 --> 00:16:29,490
Watch the marked tree and see
the change as we used livestock

276
00:16:29,490 --> 00:16:31,330
to mimic nature.

277
00:16:31,330 --> 00:16:35,230
This was another site where
it had been bare and eroding,

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00:16:35,230 --> 00:16:38,020
and at the base of
the marked small tree,

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00:16:38,020 --> 00:16:42,330
we had lost over 30
centimeters of soil.

280
00:16:42,330 --> 00:16:45,890
And again, watch the
change just using livestock

281
00:16:45,890 --> 00:16:46,990
to mimic nature.

282
00:16:46,990 --> 00:16:48,800
And there are
fallen trees in that

283
00:16:48,800 --> 00:16:52,090
now, because the better
land is now attracting

284
00:16:52,090 --> 00:16:53,930
elephants, et cetera.

285
00:16:53,930 --> 00:16:57,450
This land in Mexico was
in terrible condition.

286
00:16:57,450 --> 00:17:00,480
And I've had to mark the
hill because the change

287
00:17:00,480 --> 00:17:03,180
is so profound.

288
00:17:03,180 --> 00:17:08,079
[APPLAUSE]

289
00:17:08,079 --> 00:17:11,520


290
00:17:11,520 --> 00:17:16,339
I began helping a family in
the Karoo desert in the 1970s

291
00:17:16,339 --> 00:17:18,589
turn the desert that
you see on the right

292
00:17:18,589 --> 00:17:21,130
there back to grassland.

293
00:17:21,130 --> 00:17:23,450
And thankfully, now
their grandchildren

294
00:17:23,450 --> 00:17:26,618
are on the land with
hope for the future.

295
00:17:26,618 --> 00:17:29,000
And look at the amazing
change in this one

296
00:17:29,000 --> 00:17:34,070
where that gully has
completely healed using nothing

297
00:17:34,070 --> 00:17:36,610
but livestock mimicking nature.

298
00:17:36,610 --> 00:17:39,590
And once more, we have
the third generation

299
00:17:39,590 --> 00:17:44,210
of that family on that land
with their flag still flying.

300
00:17:44,210 --> 00:17:47,390
The vast grasslands of
Patagonia are turning to desert,

301
00:17:47,390 --> 00:17:48,340
as you see here.

302
00:17:48,340 --> 00:17:51,860
The man in the middle is
an Argentinean researcher,

303
00:17:51,860 --> 00:17:54,520
and he has documented
the steady decline

304
00:17:54,520 --> 00:17:57,100
of that land over the
years as they kept

305
00:17:57,100 --> 00:17:59,780
reducing the sheep numbers.

306
00:17:59,780 --> 00:18:03,910
They put 25,000
sheep in one flock,

307
00:18:03,910 --> 00:18:08,480
really mimicking nature
now with planned grazing.

308
00:18:08,480 --> 00:18:11,920
And they have documented
a 50% increase

309
00:18:11,920 --> 00:18:15,290
in the production of the
land in the first year.

310
00:18:15,290 --> 00:18:19,700
We now have in the violent
Horn of Africa pastoralists

311
00:18:19,700 --> 00:18:22,070
planning their grazing
to mimic nature,

312
00:18:22,070 --> 00:18:24,910
and openly saying it
is the only hope they

313
00:18:24,910 --> 00:18:28,530
have of saving their families
and saving their culture.

314
00:18:28,530 --> 00:18:34,240
95% of that land can only
feed people from animals.

315
00:18:34,240 --> 00:18:38,410
I remind you that I am talking
about most of the world's land

316
00:18:38,410 --> 00:18:41,390
here that controls
our fate, including

317
00:18:41,390 --> 00:18:46,150
the most violent region of the
world where only animals can

318
00:18:46,150 --> 00:18:50,670
feed people from
about 95% of the land.

319
00:18:50,670 --> 00:18:55,630
What we are doing globally
is causing climate change

320
00:18:55,630 --> 00:18:59,290
as much as, I believe,
fossil fuels, and maybe

321
00:18:59,290 --> 00:19:02,050
more than fossil fuels.

322
00:19:02,050 --> 00:19:06,090
But worse than that, it is
causing hunger, poverty,

323
00:19:06,090 --> 00:19:08,990
violence, social
breakdown, and war.

324
00:19:08,990 --> 00:19:12,530
And as I am talking
to you, millions

325
00:19:12,530 --> 00:19:16,680
of men, women, and children
are suffering and dying.

326
00:19:16,680 --> 00:19:21,450
And if this continues,
we are unlikely to be

327
00:19:21,450 --> 00:19:23,580
able to stop the
climate changing,

328
00:19:23,580 --> 00:19:28,670
even after we have eliminated
the use of fossil fuels.

329
00:19:28,670 --> 00:19:33,860
I believe I've shown you how
we can work with nature at very

330
00:19:33,860 --> 00:19:37,860
low cost to reverse all this.

331
00:19:37,860 --> 00:19:44,090
We are already doing so on
about 15 million hectares

332
00:19:44,090 --> 00:19:46,460
on five continents.

333
00:19:46,460 --> 00:19:50,440
And people who understand far
more about carbon than I do

334
00:19:50,440 --> 00:19:53,480
calculate that for
illustrative purposes,

335
00:19:53,480 --> 00:19:56,550
if we do what I'm
showing you here,

336
00:19:56,550 --> 00:20:00,430
we can take enough carbon
out of the atmosphere

337
00:20:00,430 --> 00:20:04,690
and safely store it in the
grassland soils for thousands

338
00:20:04,690 --> 00:20:05,470
of years.

339
00:20:05,470 --> 00:20:10,460
And if we just do that on about
half the world's grasslands

340
00:20:10,460 --> 00:20:12,870
that I've shown
you, we can take us

341
00:20:12,870 --> 00:20:17,200
back to pre-industrial
levels while feeding people.

342
00:20:17,200 --> 00:20:20,180
I can think of
almost nothing that

343
00:20:20,180 --> 00:20:25,510
offers more hope for our
planet, for your children

344
00:20:25,510 --> 00:20:28,160
and their children,
and all of humanity.

345
00:20:28,160 --> 00:20:29,100
Thank you.

346
00:20:29,100 --> 00:20:33,244
[APPLAUSE AND CHEERING]

347
00:20:33,244 --> 00:20:53,004


348
00:20:53,004 --> 00:20:54,845
Thank you, Chris.

349
00:20:54,845 --> 00:20:55,755
Thank you.

350
00:20:55,755 --> 00:20:57,360
CHRIS: Thank you.

351
00:20:57,360 --> 00:21:01,630
I have-- and I'm sure everyone
here has, A, 100 questions, B,

352
00:21:01,630 --> 00:21:02,650
wants to hug you.

353
00:21:02,650 --> 00:21:03,635
[LAUGHTER]

354
00:21:03,635 --> 00:21:05,510
I'm just going to ask
you one quick question.

355
00:21:05,510 --> 00:21:09,680
When you first start this, you
bring in a flock of animals.

356
00:21:09,680 --> 00:21:10,930
It's desert.

357
00:21:10,930 --> 00:21:11,710
What do they eat?

358
00:21:11,710 --> 00:21:12,740
How does that part work?

359
00:21:12,740 --> 00:21:13,470
How do you start?

360
00:21:13,470 --> 00:21:15,636
ALLAN SAVORY: Well, we've
done this for a long time,

361
00:21:15,636 --> 00:21:19,040
and the only time we have
ever had to provide any food

362
00:21:19,040 --> 00:21:22,960
is doing mine reclamation
where it's 100% bare.

363
00:21:22,960 --> 00:21:27,820
But many years ago, we took
the worst land in Zimbabwe

364
00:21:27,820 --> 00:21:32,620
where I offered a five-pound
note in a 100-mile drive

365
00:21:32,620 --> 00:21:36,690
if somebody could find one
grass in a 100-mile drive.

366
00:21:36,690 --> 00:21:39,870
And on that, we'd trebled
the stocking rate, the number

367
00:21:39,870 --> 00:21:43,150
of animals, in the first
year with no feeding,

368
00:21:43,150 --> 00:21:46,350
just by the movement
mimicking nature and using

369
00:21:46,350 --> 00:21:50,610
a sigmoid curve, that principle.

370
00:21:50,610 --> 00:21:52,839
It's a little bit
technical to explain here.

371
00:21:52,839 --> 00:21:54,380
CHRIS: Well, I would
love t-- I mean,

372
00:21:54,380 --> 00:21:56,780
this is such an interesting
and important idea.

373
00:21:56,780 --> 00:21:59,321
The best people s our blog are
going to come and talk to you,

374
00:21:59,321 --> 00:22:02,880
and I want to get more on
this that we can share, along

375
00:22:02,880 --> 00:22:04,485
with the talk.

376
00:22:04,485 --> 00:22:06,480
That is an astonishing talk.

377
00:22:06,480 --> 00:22:07,890
Truly an astonishing talk.

378
00:22:07,890 --> 00:22:09,412
And I think you
heard that we all

379
00:22:09,412 --> 00:22:10,620
are cheering you on your way.

380
00:22:10,620 --> 00:22:11,330
Thank you so much.

381
00:22:11,330 --> 00:22:12,490
ALLAN SAVORY: Well, thank you.

382
00:22:12,490 --> 00:22:12,989
Thank you.

383
00:22:12,989 --> 00:22:13,894
Thank you, Chris.

384
00:22:13,894 --> 00:22:14,830
[APPLAUSE]

385
00:22:14,830 --> 00:22:19,313
[MUSIC PLAYING]

386
00:22:19,313 --> 00:22:19,813