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[MUSIC PLAYING]

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[APPLAUSE]

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ALLAN SAVORY: The[br]most massive tsunami

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perfect storm is[br]bearing down upon us.

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This perfect storm is mounting a[br]grim reality, increasingly grim

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reality.

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And we are facing that[br]reality with a full belief

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that we can solve our[br]problems with technology,

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and that's very understandable.

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Now this perfect storm[br]that we are facing

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is the result of our[br]rising population, rising

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towards 10 billion people,[br]land that is turning to desert,

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and of course, climate change.

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Now there's no question[br]about it at all.

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We will only solve the[br]problem of replacing

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fossil fuels with technology.

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But fossil fuels-- carbon,[br]coal, and gas-- are by no means

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the only thing that is[br]causing climate change.

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Desertification is a[br]fancy word for land

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that is turning to desert,[br]and this happens only when

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we create too much bare ground.

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There's no other cause.

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And I intend to focus on[br]most of the world's land

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that is turning to desert.

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But I have for you a[br]very simple message

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that offers more hope[br]than you can imagine.

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We have environments[br]where humidity is

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guaranteed throughout the year.

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On those, it is[br]almost impossible

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to create vast areas of bare[br]ground, no matter what you do.

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Nature covers it up so quickly.

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And we have[br]environments where we

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have months of humidity[br]followed by months of dryness,

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and that is where[br]desertification is occurring.

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Fortunately, with[br]space technology

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now, we can look[br]at it from space.

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And when we do, you can see[br]the proportions fairly well.

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Generally, what you see in[br]green is not desertifying,

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and what you see in brown is.

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And these are by far the[br]greatest areas of the Earth.

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About 2/3, I would guess, of[br]the world is desertifying.

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I took this picture[br]in the Tihamah Desert

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while 25 millimeters-- that's[br]an inch of rain-- was falling.

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Think of it in terms[br]of drums of water,

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each containing 200 liters.

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Over 1,000 drums of water[br]fell on every hectare

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of that land that day.

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The next day, the[br]land looked like this.

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Where had that water gone?

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Some of it ran off as flooding.

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But most of the water[br]that soaked into the soil

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simply evaporated[br]out again, exactly

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as it does in your garden if[br]you leave the soil uncovered.

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Now because the fate[br]of water and carbon

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are tied to soil organic[br]matter, when we damage soils,

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you give off carbon.

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Carbon goes back[br]to the atmosphere.

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Now you are told over[br]and over, repeatedly,

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that desertification[br]is only occurring

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in arid and semi-arid[br]areas of the world,

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and that tall grasslands like[br]this one, in high rainfall,

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are of no consequence.

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But if you do not[br]look at grasslands

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but look down into[br]them, you find

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that most of the soil in that[br]grassland that you've just seen

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is bare and covered[br]with a crust of algae,

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leading to increased[br]runoff and evaporation.

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That is the cancer[br]of desertification

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that we do not recognize[br]till its terminal form.

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Now we know that desertification[br]is caused by livestock, mostly

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cattle, sheep, and goats[br]over-grazing the plants,

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leaving the soil bare,[br]and giving off methane.

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Almost everybody knows[br]this from Nobel laureates

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to golf caddies, or was[br]taught it, as I was.

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Now the environments like you[br]see here, dusty environments

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in Africa where I grew[br]up-- and I loved wildlife.

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And so I grew up hating[br]livestock because of the damage

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they were doing.

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And then my university[br]education as an ecologist

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reinforced my beliefs.

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Well, I have news for you.

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We were once just as certain[br]that the world was flat.

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We were wrong then,[br]and we are wrong again.

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And I want to invite[br]you now to come along

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on my journey of[br]re-education and discovery.

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When I was a young man, a[br]young biologist in Africa,

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I was involved in setting[br]aside marvelous areas

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as future national parks.

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Now no sooner--[br]this was the 1950s--

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and no sooner did we[br]remove the hunting,

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drum beating people to protect[br]the animals than the land began

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to deteriorate, as you see[br]in this part that we formed.

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Now no livestock were involved.

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But suspecting that we[br]had too many elephants

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now, I did the research, and[br]I proved we had too many.

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And I recommended that we would[br]have to reduce their numbers

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and bring them down to a level[br]that the land could sustain.

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Now that was a terrible[br]decision for me to have to make,

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and it was political[br]dynamite, frankly.

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So our government[br]formed a team of experts

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to evaluate my research.

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They did.

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They agreed with me.

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And over the following years,[br]we shot 40,000 elephants

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to try to stop the damage.

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And it got worse, not better.

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Loving elephants as I do, that[br]was the saddest and greatest

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blunder of my life, and I[br]will carry that to my grave.

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One good thing did[br]come out of it.

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It made me absolutely[br]determined to devote

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my life to finding solutions.

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When I came to[br]the United States,

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I got a shock to find[br]national parks like this one

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desertifying as badly[br]as anything in Africa.

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And there'd been no livestock[br]on this land for over 70 years.

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And I found that[br]American scientists

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had no explanation for[br]this except that it

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is arid and natural.

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So I then began looking[br]at all the research

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plots I could over the whole[br]of the western United States

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where cattle had been[br]removed to prove that it

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would stop desertification.

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But I found the opposite.

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As we see on this[br]research station

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where this grassland that[br]was green in 1961, by 2002

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had changed to that situation.

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And the authors of the[br]position paper on climate

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change from which I obtained[br]these pictures attribute

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this change to[br]unknown processes.

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Clearly, we have[br]never understood

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what is causing[br]desertification, which

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has destroyed many civilizations[br]and now threatens us globally.

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We have never understood it.

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Take one square meter[br]of soil and make it bare

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like this is down here,[br]and I promise you,

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you will find it much colder at[br]dawn and much hotter at midday

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than that same piece of[br]ground, if it's just covered

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with litter, plant litter.

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You have changed[br]the microclimate.

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Now by the time you are doing[br]that and increasing greatly

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the percentage of bare ground[br]on more than half the world's

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land, you are[br]changing macroclimate.

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But we have just[br]simply not understood,

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why was it beginning to[br]happen 10,000 years ago?

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Why has it accelerated lately?

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We had no understanding of that.

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What we had failed[br]to understand was

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that the seasonal[br]humidity environments

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of the world, the soil[br]and the vegetation,

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developed with very large[br]numbers of grazing animals,

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and that these grazing[br]animals developed

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with ferocious[br]pack-hunting predators.

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Now their main defense[br]against pack-hunting predators

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is to get into herds.

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And the larger the herd,[br]the safer the individuals.

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Now large herds dung and[br]urinate all over their own food,

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and they have to keep moving.

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And it was that movement that[br]prevented the overgrazing

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of plants, while the[br]periodic trampling ensured

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good cover of the soil, as we[br]see where a herd has passed.

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This picture is a typical[br]seasonal grassland.

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It has just come through[br]four months of rain,

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and it's now going into[br]eight months of dry season.

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And watch the change as it[br]goes into this long dry season.

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Now all of that grass[br]you see above ground

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has to decay biologically[br]before the next growing season.

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And if it doesn't, the grassland[br]and the soil begin to die.

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Now if it does not[br]decay biologically,

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it shifts to oxidation,[br]which is a very slow process,

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and this smothers and kills[br]grasses, leading to a shift

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to woody vegetation and[br]bare soil releasing carbon.

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To prevent that, we have[br]traditionally used fire.

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But fire also leaves the[br]soil bare, releasing carbon.

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And worse than that, burning[br]one hectare of grassland

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gives off more and more damaging[br]pollutants than 6,000 cars.

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And we are burning in[br]Africa, every single year,

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more than one billion[br]hectares of grasslands,

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and almost nobody[br]is talking about it.

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We justify the[br]burning as scientists

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because it does remove[br]the dead material,

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and it allows the[br]plants to grow.

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Now looking at this grassland[br]of ours that has gone dry,

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what can we do to[br]keep that healthy?

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And bear in mind, I'm talking[br]of most of the world's land now?

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We cannot reduce animal numbers[br]to rest it more without causing

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desertification[br]and climate change.

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We cannot burn it without[br]causing desertification

0:11:46.660,0:11:47.980
and climate change.

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What are we going to do?

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There is only one option.

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I repeat to you, only one[br]option left to climatologists

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and scientists, and that[br]is to do the unthinkable,

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and to use livestock,[br]bunched and moving,

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as a proxy for former herds[br]and predators and mimic nature.

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There is no other[br]alternative left to mankind.

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So let's do that.

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So on this bit of[br]grassland, we'll

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do it, but just[br]in the foreground.

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We'll impact it very heavily[br]with cattle to mimic nature,

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and we've done so,[br]and look at that.

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All of that grass is[br]now covering the soil

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as dung, urine, and[br]litter or mulch,

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as every one of the gardeners[br]amongst you would understand,

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and that soil is ready to[br]absorb and hold the rain,

0:12:47.190,0:12:52.190
to store carbon, and[br]to break down methane.

0:12:52.190,0:12:56.870
And we did that without using[br]fire to damage the soil,

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and the plants are free to grow.

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When I first realized that we[br]had no option as scientists

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but to use much vilified[br]livestock to address climate

0:13:10.090,0:13:15.030
change and desertification, I[br]was faced with a real dilemma.

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How were we to do it?

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We'd had 10,000 years of[br]extremely knowledgeable

0:13:20.600,0:13:23.360
pastoralists, bunching[br]and moving their animals.

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But they had created the great[br]man-made deserts of the world.

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Then we'd had 100 years[br]of modern range science,

0:13:31.250,0:13:34.220
and that had accelerated[br]desertification

0:13:34.220,0:13:37.300
as we first discovered in[br]Africa and then confirmed

0:13:37.300,0:13:39.630
in the United States,[br]and as you see

0:13:39.630,0:13:44.690
in this picture of land managed[br]by the federal government.

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Clearly, more was needed[br]than bunching and moving

0:13:47.440,0:13:48.560
the animals.

0:13:48.560,0:13:52.310
And humans, over[br]thousands of years,

0:13:52.310,0:13:56.340
had never been able to deal[br]with nature's complexity.

0:13:56.340,0:13:59.110
But we biologists and[br]ecologists had never

0:13:59.110,0:14:01.820
tackled anything[br]as complex as this.

0:14:01.820,0:14:04.370
So rather than[br]reinvent the wheel,

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I began studying[br]other professions

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to see if anybody had.

0:14:08.730,0:14:11.210
And I found they we're[br]planning techniques

0:14:11.210,0:14:14.860
that I could take and adapt[br]to our biological need.

0:14:14.860,0:14:17.160
And from those, I[br]developed what we

0:14:17.160,0:14:21.830
call holistic management and[br]planned grazing, a planning

0:14:21.830,0:14:22.710
process.

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And that does address all[br]of nature's complexity

0:14:26.470,0:14:31.490
and our social, environmental,[br]economic complexity.

0:14:31.490,0:14:35.600
Today, we have a young woman[br]like this one teaching villages

0:14:35.600,0:14:37.920
in Africa how to put[br]their animals together

0:14:37.920,0:14:42.300
into larger herds, plan their[br]grazing, to mimic nature.

0:14:42.300,0:14:46.320
And where we have them hold[br]their animals overnight--

0:14:46.320,0:14:48.275
we run them in a[br]predator-friendly manner,

0:14:48.275,0:14:50.660
because we have a lot[br]of lands, and so on--

0:14:50.660,0:14:53.020
and where they do this[br]and hold them overnight

0:14:53.020,0:14:55.110
to prepare the[br]crop fields, we're

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getting very great increases[br]in crop yield as well.

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Let's look at some results.

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This is land close to land[br]that we manage in Zimbabwe.

0:15:04.880,0:15:06.890
It has just come[br]through four months

0:15:06.890,0:15:09.290
of very good rains[br]it got that year,

0:15:09.290,0:15:11.760
and it's going into[br]the long dry season.

0:15:11.760,0:15:14.700
But as you can see, all of[br]that rain, almost all of it,

0:15:14.700,0:15:18.070
has evaporated from[br]the soil surface.

0:15:18.070,0:15:22.430
The river is dry, despite[br]the rain just having ended,

0:15:22.430,0:15:28.950
and we have 150,000 people[br]on almost permanent food aid.

0:15:28.950,0:15:33.610
Now let's go to our land[br]nearby on the same day

0:15:33.610,0:15:36.530
with the s rainfall[br]and look at that.

0:15:36.530,0:15:38.880
Our river is flowing[br]and healthy and clean.

0:15:38.880,0:15:41.490
It's fine.

0:15:41.490,0:15:48.020
The production of grass, shrubs,[br]trees, wildlife, everything

0:15:48.020,0:15:49.730
is now more productive.

0:15:49.730,0:15:54.280
And we have virtually[br]no fear of dry years.

0:15:54.280,0:16:01.210
And we did that by increasing[br]the cattle and goats 400%,

0:16:01.210,0:16:05.240
planning the grazing to mimic[br]nature and integrate them

0:16:05.240,0:16:08.740
with all the elephants, buffalo,[br]giraffe, and other animals

0:16:08.740,0:16:10.400
that we have.

0:16:10.400,0:16:12.990
But before we began, our[br]land looked like that.

0:16:12.990,0:16:16.140


0:16:16.140,0:16:22.450
This site was bare and eroding[br]for over 30 years, regardless

0:16:22.450,0:16:24.770
of what rain we got.

0:16:24.770,0:16:29.490
Watch the marked tree and see[br]the change as we used livestock

0:16:29.490,0:16:31.330
to mimic nature.

0:16:31.330,0:16:35.230
This was another site where[br]it had been bare and eroding,

0:16:35.230,0:16:38.020
and at the base of[br]the marked small tree,

0:16:38.020,0:16:42.330
we had lost over 30[br]centimeters of soil.

0:16:42.330,0:16:45.890
And again, watch the[br]change just using livestock

0:16:45.890,0:16:46.990
to mimic nature.

0:16:46.990,0:16:48.800
And there are[br]fallen trees in that

0:16:48.800,0:16:52.090
now, because the better[br]land is now attracting

0:16:52.090,0:16:53.930
elephants, et cetera.

0:16:53.930,0:16:57.450
This land in Mexico was[br]in terrible condition.

0:16:57.450,0:17:00.480
And I've had to mark the[br]hill because the change

0:17:00.480,0:17:03.180
is so profound.

0:17:03.180,0:17:08.079
[APPLAUSE]

0:17:08.079,0:17:11.520


0:17:11.520,0:17:16.339
I began helping a family in[br]the Karoo desert in the 1970s

0:17:16.339,0:17:18.589
turn the desert that[br]you see on the right

0:17:18.589,0:17:21.130
there back to grassland.

0:17:21.130,0:17:23.450
And thankfully, now[br]their grandchildren

0:17:23.450,0:17:26.618
are on the land with[br]hope for the future.

0:17:26.618,0:17:29.000
And look at the amazing[br]change in this one

0:17:29.000,0:17:34.070
where that gully has[br]completely healed using nothing

0:17:34.070,0:17:36.610
but livestock mimicking nature.

0:17:36.610,0:17:39.590
And once more, we have[br]the third generation

0:17:39.590,0:17:44.210
of that family on that land[br]with their flag still flying.

0:17:44.210,0:17:47.390
The vast grasslands of[br]Patagonia are turning to desert,

0:17:47.390,0:17:48.340
as you see here.

0:17:48.340,0:17:51.860
The man in the middle is[br]an Argentinean researcher,

0:17:51.860,0:17:54.520
and he has documented[br]the steady decline

0:17:54.520,0:17:57.100
of that land over the[br]years as they kept

0:17:57.100,0:17:59.780
reducing the sheep numbers.

0:17:59.780,0:18:03.910
They put 25,000[br]sheep in one flock,

0:18:03.910,0:18:08.480
really mimicking nature[br]now with planned grazing.

0:18:08.480,0:18:11.920
And they have documented[br]a 50% increase

0:18:11.920,0:18:15.290
in the production of the[br]land in the first year.

0:18:15.290,0:18:19.700
We now have in the violent[br]Horn of Africa pastoralists

0:18:19.700,0:18:22.070
planning their grazing[br]to mimic nature,

0:18:22.070,0:18:24.910
and openly saying it[br]is the only hope they

0:18:24.910,0:18:28.530
have of saving their families[br]and saving their culture.

0:18:28.530,0:18:34.240
95% of that land can only[br]feed people from animals.

0:18:34.240,0:18:38.410
I remind you that I am talking[br]about most of the world's land

0:18:38.410,0:18:41.390
here that controls[br]our fate, including

0:18:41.390,0:18:46.150
the most violent region of the[br]world where only animals can

0:18:46.150,0:18:50.670
feed people from[br]about 95% of the land.

0:18:50.670,0:18:55.630
What we are doing globally[br]is causing climate change

0:18:55.630,0:18:59.290
as much as, I believe,[br]fossil fuels, and maybe

0:18:59.290,0:19:02.050
more than fossil fuels.

0:19:02.050,0:19:06.090
But worse than that, it is[br]causing hunger, poverty,

0:19:06.090,0:19:08.990
violence, social[br]breakdown, and war.

0:19:08.990,0:19:12.530
And as I am talking[br]to you, millions

0:19:12.530,0:19:16.680
of men, women, and children[br]are suffering and dying.

0:19:16.680,0:19:21.450
And if this continues,[br]we are unlikely to be

0:19:21.450,0:19:23.580
able to stop the[br]climate changing,

0:19:23.580,0:19:28.670
even after we have eliminated[br]the use of fossil fuels.

0:19:28.670,0:19:33.860
I believe I've shown you how[br]we can work with nature at very

0:19:33.860,0:19:37.860
low cost to reverse all this.

0:19:37.860,0:19:44.090
We are already doing so on[br]about 15 million hectares

0:19:44.090,0:19:46.460
on five continents.

0:19:46.460,0:19:50.440
And people who understand far[br]more about carbon than I do

0:19:50.440,0:19:53.480
calculate that for[br]illustrative purposes,

0:19:53.480,0:19:56.550
if we do what I'm[br]showing you here,

0:19:56.550,0:20:00.430
we can take enough carbon[br]out of the atmosphere

0:20:00.430,0:20:04.690
and safely store it in the[br]grassland soils for thousands

0:20:04.690,0:20:05.470
of years.

0:20:05.470,0:20:10.460
And if we just do that on about[br]half the world's grasslands

0:20:10.460,0:20:12.870
that I've shown[br]you, we can take us

0:20:12.870,0:20:17.200
back to pre-industrial[br]levels while feeding people.

0:20:17.200,0:20:20.180
I can think of[br]almost nothing that

0:20:20.180,0:20:25.510
offers more hope for our[br]planet, for your children

0:20:25.510,0:20:28.160
and their children,[br]and all of humanity.

0:20:28.160,0:20:29.100
Thank you.

0:20:29.100,0:20:33.244
[APPLAUSE AND CHEERING]

0:20:33.244,0:20:53.004


0:20:53.004,0:20:54.845
Thank you, Chris.

0:20:54.845,0:20:55.755
Thank you.

0:20:55.755,0:20:57.360
CHRIS: Thank you.

0:20:57.360,0:21:01.630
I have-- and I'm sure everyone[br]here has, A, 100 questions, B,

0:21:01.630,0:21:02.650
wants to hug you.

0:21:02.650,0:21:03.635
[LAUGHTER]

0:21:03.635,0:21:05.510
I'm just going to ask[br]you one quick question.

0:21:05.510,0:21:09.680
When you first start this, you[br]bring in a flock of animals.

0:21:09.680,0:21:10.930
It's desert.

0:21:10.930,0:21:11.710
What do they eat?

0:21:11.710,0:21:12.740
How does that part work?

0:21:12.740,0:21:13.470
How do you start?

0:21:13.470,0:21:15.636
ALLAN SAVORY: Well, we've[br]done this for a long time,

0:21:15.636,0:21:19.040
and the only time we have[br]ever had to provide any food

0:21:19.040,0:21:22.960
is doing mine reclamation[br]where it's 100% bare.

0:21:22.960,0:21:27.820
But many years ago, we took[br]the worst land in Zimbabwe

0:21:27.820,0:21:32.620
where I offered a five-pound[br]note in a 100-mile drive

0:21:32.620,0:21:36.690
if somebody could find one[br]grass in a 100-mile drive.

0:21:36.690,0:21:39.870
And on that, we'd trebled[br]the stocking rate, the number

0:21:39.870,0:21:43.150
of animals, in the first[br]year with no feeding,

0:21:43.150,0:21:46.350
just by the movement[br]mimicking nature and using

0:21:46.350,0:21:50.610
a sigmoid curve, that principle.

0:21:50.610,0:21:52.839
It's a little bit[br]technical to explain here.

0:21:52.839,0:21:54.380
CHRIS: Well, I would[br]love t-- I mean,

0:21:54.380,0:21:56.780
this is such an interesting[br]and important idea.

0:21:56.780,0:21:59.321
The best people s our blog are[br]going to come and talk to you,

0:21:59.321,0:22:02.880
and I want to get more on[br]this that we can share, along

0:22:02.880,0:22:04.485
with the talk.

0:22:04.485,0:22:06.480
That is an astonishing talk.

0:22:06.480,0:22:07.890
Truly an astonishing talk.

0:22:07.890,0:22:09.412
And I think you[br]heard that we all

0:22:09.412,0:22:10.620
are cheering you on your way.

0:22:10.620,0:22:11.330
Thank you so much.

0:22:11.330,0:22:12.490
ALLAN SAVORY: Well, thank you.

0:22:12.490,0:22:12.989
Thank you.

0:22:12.989,0:22:13.894
Thank you, Chris.

0:22:13.894,0:22:14.830
[APPLAUSE]

0:22:14.830,0:22:19.313
[MUSIC PLAYING]

0:22:19.313,0:22:19.813