WEBVTT 00:00:00.148 --> 00:00:03.530 I'm going to talk to you about optimism -- 00:00:03.530 --> 00:00:06.013 or more precisely, the optimism bias. 00:00:06.013 --> 00:00:07.658 It's a cognitive illusion 00:00:07.658 --> 00:00:10.400 that we've been studying in my lab for the past few years, 00:00:10.400 --> 00:00:12.135 and 80 percent of us have it. NOTE Paragraph 00:00:12.135 --> 00:00:14.869 It's our tendency to overestimate 00:00:14.869 --> 00:00:17.792 our likelihood of experiencing good events in our lives 00:00:17.792 --> 00:00:21.900 and underestimate our likelihood of experiencing bad events. 00:00:21.900 --> 00:00:24.917 So we underestimate our likelihood of suffering from cancer, 00:00:24.917 --> 00:00:26.423 being in a car accident. 00:00:26.423 --> 00:00:29.609 We overestimate our longevity, our career prospects. 00:00:29.609 --> 00:00:33.054 In short, we're more optimistic than realistic, 00:00:33.054 --> 00:00:35.216 but we are oblivious to the fact. NOTE Paragraph 00:00:35.216 --> 00:00:37.443 Take marriage for example. 00:00:37.443 --> 00:00:40.977 In the Western world, divorce rates are about 40 percent. 00:00:40.977 --> 00:00:44.446 That means that out of five married couples, 00:00:44.446 --> 00:00:47.167 two will end up splitting their assets. 00:00:47.167 --> 00:00:50.542 But when you ask newlyweds about their own likelihood of divorce, 00:00:50.542 --> 00:00:54.234 they estimate it at zero percent. 00:00:54.234 --> 00:00:57.963 And even divorce lawyers, who should really know better, 00:00:57.963 --> 00:01:01.812 hugely underestimate their own likelihood of divorce. 00:01:01.812 --> 00:01:04.938 So it turns out that optimists are not less likely to divorce, 00:01:04.938 --> 00:01:07.468 but they are more likely to remarry. 00:01:07.468 --> 00:01:09.771 In the words of Samuel Johnson, 00:01:09.771 --> 00:01:13.768 "Remarriage is the triumph of hope over experience." NOTE Paragraph 00:01:13.768 --> 00:01:15.730 (Laughter) NOTE Paragraph 00:01:15.730 --> 00:01:20.304 So if we're married, we're more likely to have kids. 00:01:20.304 --> 00:01:23.569 And we all think our kids will be especially talented. 00:01:23.569 --> 00:01:26.167 This, by the way, is my two-year-old nephew, Guy. 00:01:26.167 --> 00:01:28.542 And I just want to make it absolutely clear 00:01:28.542 --> 00:01:31.313 that he's a really bad example of the optimism bias, 00:01:31.313 --> 00:01:34.125 because he is in fact uniquely talented. NOTE Paragraph 00:01:34.125 --> 00:01:35.560 (Laughter) NOTE Paragraph 00:01:35.560 --> 00:01:37.167 And I'm not alone. 00:01:37.167 --> 00:01:39.642 Out of four British people, three said 00:01:39.642 --> 00:01:43.381 that they were optimistic about the future of their own families. 00:01:43.381 --> 00:01:45.132 That's 75 percent. 00:01:45.132 --> 00:01:47.190 But only 30 percent said 00:01:47.190 --> 00:01:49.750 that they thought families in general 00:01:49.750 --> 00:01:52.162 are doing better than a few generations ago. NOTE Paragraph 00:01:52.162 --> 00:01:54.183 And this is a really important point, 00:01:54.183 --> 00:01:56.071 because we're optimistic about ourselves, 00:01:56.071 --> 00:01:57.889 we're optimistic about our kids, 00:01:57.889 --> 00:01:59.677 we're optimistic about our families, 00:01:59.677 --> 00:02:02.860 but we're not so optimistic about the guy sitting next to us, 00:02:02.860 --> 00:02:05.089 and we're somewhat pessimistic 00:02:05.089 --> 00:02:08.968 about the fate of our fellow citizens and the fate of our country. 00:02:08.968 --> 00:02:13.004 But private optimism about our own personal future 00:02:13.004 --> 00:02:15.015 remains persistent. 00:02:15.015 --> 00:02:19.081 And it doesn't mean that we think things will magically turn out okay, 00:02:19.081 --> 00:02:23.113 but rather that we have the unique ability to make it so. NOTE Paragraph 00:02:23.113 --> 00:02:25.954 Now I'm a scientist, I do experiments. 00:02:25.954 --> 00:02:27.746 So to show you what I mean, 00:02:27.746 --> 00:02:30.548 I'm going to do an experiment here with you. 00:02:30.548 --> 00:02:34.398 So I'm going to give you a list of abilities and characteristics, 00:02:34.398 --> 00:02:37.292 and I want you to think for each of these abilities 00:02:37.292 --> 00:02:41.685 where you stand relative to the rest of the population. NOTE Paragraph 00:02:41.685 --> 00:02:45.471 The first one is getting along well with others. 00:02:45.471 --> 00:02:51.123 Who here believes they're at the bottom 25 percent? 00:02:51.123 --> 00:02:55.445 Okay, that's about 10 people out of 1,500. 00:02:55.445 --> 00:02:59.458 Who believes they're at the top 25 percent? 00:02:59.458 --> 00:03:02.168 That's most of us here. 00:03:02.168 --> 00:03:07.098 Okay, now do the same for your driving ability. 00:03:07.098 --> 00:03:09.681 How interesting are you? 00:03:09.681 --> 00:03:12.525 How attractive are you? 00:03:12.525 --> 00:03:15.479 How honest are you? 00:03:15.479 --> 00:03:20.479 And finally, how modest are you? NOTE Paragraph 00:03:20.479 --> 00:03:23.167 So most of us put ourselves above average 00:03:23.167 --> 00:03:25.196 on most of these abilities. 00:03:25.196 --> 00:03:27.327 Now this is statistically impossible. 00:03:27.327 --> 00:03:30.556 We can't all be better than everyone else. 00:03:30.556 --> 00:03:32.198 (Laughter) 00:03:32.198 --> 00:03:34.875 But if we believe we're better than the other guy, 00:03:34.875 --> 00:03:38.958 well that means that we're more likely to get that promotion, to remain married, 00:03:38.958 --> 00:03:41.556 because we're more social, more interesting. NOTE Paragraph 00:03:41.556 --> 00:03:43.719 And it's a global phenomenon. 00:03:43.719 --> 00:03:46.187 The optimism bias has been observed 00:03:46.187 --> 00:03:47.906 in many different countries -- 00:03:47.906 --> 00:03:51.010 in Western cultures, in non-Western cultures, 00:03:51.010 --> 00:03:52.516 in females and males, 00:03:52.516 --> 00:03:54.240 in kids, in the elderly. 00:03:54.240 --> 00:03:56.023 It's quite widespread. NOTE Paragraph 00:03:56.023 --> 00:03:59.523 But the question is, is it good for us? 00:03:59.523 --> 00:04:01.977 So some people say no. 00:04:01.977 --> 00:04:04.495 Some people say the secret to happiness 00:04:04.495 --> 00:04:07.248 is low expectations. 00:04:07.248 --> 00:04:09.752 I think the logic goes something like this: 00:04:09.752 --> 00:04:12.010 If we don't expect greatness, 00:04:12.010 --> 00:04:15.890 if we don't expect to find love and be healthy and successful, 00:04:15.890 --> 00:04:18.988 well we're not going to be disappointed when these things don't happen. 00:04:18.988 --> 00:04:22.396 And if we're not disappointed when good things don't happen, 00:04:22.396 --> 00:04:24.375 and we're pleasantly surprised when they do, 00:04:24.375 --> 00:04:26.156 we will be happy. NOTE Paragraph 00:04:26.156 --> 00:04:27.858 So it's a very good theory, 00:04:27.858 --> 00:04:30.885 but it turns out to be wrong for three reasons. 00:04:30.885 --> 00:04:35.500 Number one: Whatever happens, whether you succeed or you fail, 00:04:35.500 --> 00:04:39.358 people with high expectations always feel better. 00:04:39.358 --> 00:04:43.290 Because how we feel when we get dumped or win employee of the month 00:04:43.290 --> 00:04:46.320 depends on how we interpret that event. NOTE Paragraph 00:04:46.320 --> 00:04:50.370 The psychologists Margaret Marshall and John Brown 00:04:50.370 --> 00:04:53.364 studied students with high and low expectations. 00:04:53.364 --> 00:04:57.548 And they found that when people with high expectations succeed, 00:04:57.548 --> 00:05:00.458 they attribute that success to their own traits. 00:05:00.458 --> 00:05:02.654 "I'm a genius, therefore I got an A, 00:05:02.654 --> 00:05:05.329 therefore I'll get an A again and again in the future." 00:05:05.329 --> 00:05:08.302 When they failed, it wasn't because they were dumb, 00:05:08.302 --> 00:05:11.475 but because the exam just happened to be unfair. 00:05:11.475 --> 00:05:13.758 Next time they will do better. 00:05:13.758 --> 00:05:16.835 People with low expectations do the opposite. 00:05:16.835 --> 00:05:19.667 So when they failed it was because they were dumb, 00:05:19.667 --> 00:05:21.167 and when they succeeded 00:05:21.167 --> 00:05:24.484 it was because the exam just happened to be really easy. 00:05:24.484 --> 00:05:26.885 Next time reality would catch up with them. 00:05:26.885 --> 00:05:28.958 So they felt worse. NOTE Paragraph 00:05:28.958 --> 00:05:32.198 Number two: Regardless of the outcome, 00:05:32.198 --> 00:05:36.245 the pure act of anticipation makes us happy. 00:05:36.245 --> 00:05:39.421 The behavioral economist George Lowenstein 00:05:39.421 --> 00:05:41.140 asked students in his university 00:05:41.140 --> 00:05:45.502 to imagine getting a passionate kiss from a celebrity, any celebrity. 00:05:45.502 --> 00:05:48.387 Then he said, "How much are you willing to pay 00:05:48.387 --> 00:05:50.375 to get a kiss from a celebrity 00:05:50.375 --> 00:05:52.602 if the kiss was delivered immediately, 00:05:52.602 --> 00:05:57.625 in three hours, in 24 hours, in three days, 00:05:57.625 --> 00:06:00.058 in one year, in 10 years? 00:06:00.058 --> 00:06:03.188 He found that the students were willing to pay the most 00:06:03.188 --> 00:06:05.187 not to get a kiss immediately, 00:06:05.187 --> 00:06:08.167 but to get a kiss in three days. 00:06:08.167 --> 00:06:12.414 They were willing to pay extra in order to wait. 00:06:12.414 --> 00:06:15.417 Now they weren't willing to wait a year or 10 years; 00:06:15.417 --> 00:06:16.838 no one wants an aging celebrity. 00:06:16.838 --> 00:06:21.627 But three days seemed to be the optimum amount. NOTE Paragraph 00:06:21.627 --> 00:06:23.930 So why is that? 00:06:23.930 --> 00:06:27.354 Well if you get the kiss now, it's over and done with. 00:06:27.354 --> 00:06:29.304 But if you get the kiss in three days, 00:06:29.304 --> 00:06:33.458 well that's three days of jittery anticipation, the thrill of the wait. 00:06:33.458 --> 00:06:35.327 The students wanted that time 00:06:35.327 --> 00:06:37.708 to imagine where is it going to happen, 00:06:37.708 --> 00:06:39.337 how is it going to happen. 00:06:39.337 --> 00:06:41.548 Anticipation made them happy. NOTE Paragraph 00:06:41.548 --> 00:06:45.417 This is, by the way, why people prefer Friday to Sunday. 00:06:45.417 --> 00:06:47.500 It's a really curious fact, 00:06:47.500 --> 00:06:50.917 because Friday is a day of work and Sunday is a day of pleasure, 00:06:50.917 --> 00:06:53.821 so you'd assume that people will prefer Sunday, 00:06:53.821 --> 00:06:55.542 but they don't. 00:06:55.542 --> 00:06:58.417 It's not because they really, really like being in the office 00:06:58.417 --> 00:07:00.384 and they can't stand strolling in the park 00:07:00.384 --> 00:07:02.045 or having a lazy brunch. 00:07:02.045 --> 00:07:04.181 We know that, because when you ask people 00:07:04.181 --> 00:07:06.885 about their ultimate favorite day of the week, 00:07:06.885 --> 00:07:09.705 surprise, surprise, Saturday comes in at first, 00:07:09.705 --> 00:07:12.625 then Friday, then Sunday. 00:07:12.625 --> 00:07:14.494 People prefer Friday 00:07:14.494 --> 00:07:18.458 because Friday brings with it the anticipation of the weekend ahead, 00:07:18.458 --> 00:07:20.375 all the plans that you have. 00:07:20.375 --> 00:07:23.079 On Sunday, the only thing you can look forward to 00:07:23.079 --> 00:07:25.333 is the work week. NOTE Paragraph 00:07:25.333 --> 00:07:30.210 So optimists are people who expect more kisses in their future, 00:07:30.210 --> 00:07:32.131 more strolls in the park. 00:07:32.131 --> 00:07:36.038 And that anticipation enhances their wellbeing. 00:07:36.038 --> 00:07:39.002 In fact, without the optimism bias, 00:07:39.002 --> 00:07:41.752 we would all be slightly depressed. 00:07:41.752 --> 00:07:44.019 People with mild depression, 00:07:44.019 --> 00:07:46.998 they don't have a bias when they look into the future. 00:07:46.998 --> 00:07:51.220 They're actually more realistic than healthy individuals. 00:07:51.220 --> 00:07:53.321 But individuals with severe depression, 00:07:53.321 --> 00:07:55.150 they have a pessimistic bias. 00:07:55.150 --> 00:07:57.613 So they tend to expect the future 00:07:57.613 --> 00:08:00.090 to be worse than it ends up being. NOTE Paragraph 00:08:00.090 --> 00:08:03.333 So optimism changes subjective reality. 00:08:03.333 --> 00:08:07.083 The way we expect the world to be changes the way we see it. 00:08:07.083 --> 00:08:10.325 But it also changes objective reality. 00:08:10.325 --> 00:08:13.052 It acts as a self-fulfilling prophecy. 00:08:13.052 --> 00:08:15.120 And that is the third reason 00:08:15.120 --> 00:08:18.300 why lowering your expectations will not make you happy. 00:08:18.300 --> 00:08:20.135 Controlled experiments have shown 00:08:20.135 --> 00:08:23.052 that optimism is not only related to success, 00:08:23.052 --> 00:08:24.859 it leads to success. 00:08:24.859 --> 00:08:29.729 Optimism leads to success in academia and sports and politics. 00:08:29.729 --> 00:08:34.204 And maybe the most surprising benefit of optimism is health. 00:08:34.204 --> 00:08:37.529 If we expect the future to be bright, 00:08:37.529 --> 00:08:40.269 stress and anxiety are reduced. NOTE Paragraph 00:08:40.269 --> 00:08:44.489 So all in all, optimism has lots of benefits. 00:08:44.489 --> 00:08:47.500 But the question that was really confusing to me was, 00:08:47.500 --> 00:08:52.169 how do we maintain optimism in the face of reality? 00:08:52.169 --> 00:08:55.187 As an neuroscientist, this was especially confusing, 00:08:55.187 --> 00:08:58.083 because according to all the theories out there, 00:08:58.083 --> 00:09:02.271 when your expectations are not met, you should alter them. 00:09:02.271 --> 00:09:03.823 But this is not what we find. 00:09:03.823 --> 00:09:07.306 We asked people to come into our lab 00:09:07.306 --> 00:09:10.116 in order to try and figure out what was going on. NOTE Paragraph 00:09:10.116 --> 00:09:12.663 We asked them to estimate their likelihood 00:09:12.663 --> 00:09:15.167 of experiencing different terrible events in their lives. 00:09:15.167 --> 00:09:19.542 So, for example, what is your likelihood of suffering from cancer? 00:09:19.542 --> 00:09:21.894 And then we told them the average likelihood 00:09:21.894 --> 00:09:24.875 of someone like them to suffer these misfortunes. 00:09:24.875 --> 00:09:28.440 So cancer, for example, is about 30 percent. 00:09:28.440 --> 00:09:31.375 And then we asked them again, 00:09:31.375 --> 00:09:34.250 "How likely are you to suffer from cancer?" NOTE Paragraph 00:09:34.250 --> 00:09:36.498 What we wanted to know was 00:09:36.498 --> 00:09:39.167 whether people will take the information that we gave them 00:09:39.167 --> 00:09:41.298 to change their beliefs. 00:09:41.298 --> 00:09:43.667 And indeed they did -- 00:09:43.667 --> 00:09:46.248 but mostly when the information we gave them 00:09:46.248 --> 00:09:49.079 was better than what they expected. 00:09:49.079 --> 00:09:50.440 So for example, 00:09:50.440 --> 00:09:53.350 if someone said, "My likelihood of suffering from cancer 00:09:53.350 --> 00:09:55.731 is about 50 percent," 00:09:55.731 --> 00:09:58.252 and we said, "Hey, good news. 00:09:58.252 --> 00:10:00.833 The average likelihood is only 30 percent," 00:10:00.833 --> 00:10:02.879 the next time around they would say, 00:10:02.879 --> 00:10:05.594 "Well maybe my likelihood is about 35 percent." 00:10:05.594 --> 00:10:08.230 So they learned quickly and efficiently. 00:10:08.230 --> 00:10:10.780 But if someone started off saying, 00:10:10.780 --> 00:10:14.183 "My average likelihood of suffering from cancer is about 10 percent," 00:10:14.183 --> 00:10:16.875 and we said, "Hey, bad news. 00:10:16.875 --> 00:10:19.948 The average likelihood is about 30 percent," 00:10:19.948 --> 00:10:22.006 the next time around they would say, 00:10:22.006 --> 00:10:25.125 "Yep. Still think it's about 11 percent." NOTE Paragraph 00:10:25.125 --> 00:10:26.815 (Laughter) NOTE Paragraph 00:10:26.815 --> 00:10:30.134 So it's not that they didn't learn at all -- they did -- 00:10:30.134 --> 00:10:32.470 but much, much less than when we gave them 00:10:32.470 --> 00:10:34.943 positive information about the future. 00:10:34.943 --> 00:10:37.977 And it's not that they didn't remember the numbers that we gave them; 00:10:37.977 --> 00:10:41.050 everyone remembers that the average likelihood of cancer 00:10:41.050 --> 00:10:42.550 is about 30 percent 00:10:42.550 --> 00:10:45.329 and the average likelihood of divorce is about 40 percent. 00:10:45.329 --> 00:10:49.960 But they didn't think that those numbers were related to them. NOTE Paragraph 00:10:49.960 --> 00:10:54.108 What this means is that warning signs such as these 00:10:54.108 --> 00:10:57.000 may only have limited impact. 00:10:57.000 --> 00:11:01.159 Yes, smoking kills, but mostly it kills the other guy. NOTE Paragraph 00:11:01.159 --> 00:11:03.042 What I wanted to know was 00:11:03.042 --> 00:11:05.902 what was going on inside the human brain 00:11:05.902 --> 00:11:09.996 that prevented us from taking these warning signs personally. 00:11:09.996 --> 00:11:11.483 But at the same time, 00:11:11.483 --> 00:11:13.461 when we hear that the housing market is hopeful, 00:11:13.461 --> 00:11:17.577 we think, "Oh, my house is definitely going to double in price." 00:11:17.577 --> 00:11:19.662 To try and figure that out, 00:11:19.662 --> 00:11:22.135 I asked the participants in the experiment 00:11:22.135 --> 00:11:24.296 to lie in a brain imaging scanner. 00:11:24.296 --> 00:11:25.823 It looks like this. 00:11:25.823 --> 00:11:28.854 And using a method called functional MRI, 00:11:28.854 --> 00:11:32.460 we were able to identify regions in the brain 00:11:32.460 --> 00:11:35.277 that were responding to positive information. NOTE Paragraph 00:11:35.277 --> 00:11:38.856 One of these regions is called the left inferior frontal gyrus. 00:11:38.856 --> 00:11:42.644 So if someone said, "My likelihood of suffering from cancer is 50 percent," 00:11:42.644 --> 00:11:44.500 and we said, "Hey, good news. 00:11:44.500 --> 00:11:46.790 Average likelihood is 30 percent," 00:11:46.790 --> 00:11:50.362 the left inferior frontal gyrus would respond fiercely. 00:11:50.362 --> 00:11:55.094 And it didn't matter if you're an extreme optimist, a mild optimist 00:11:55.094 --> 00:11:56.915 or slightly pessimistic, 00:11:56.915 --> 00:11:59.500 everyone's left inferior frontal gyrus 00:11:59.500 --> 00:12:01.344 was functioning perfectly well, 00:12:01.344 --> 00:12:04.250 whether you're Barack Obama or Woody Allen. NOTE Paragraph 00:12:04.250 --> 00:12:05.894 On the other side of the brain, 00:12:05.894 --> 00:12:10.680 the right inferior frontal gyrus was responding to bad news. 00:12:10.680 --> 00:12:14.406 And here's the thing: it wasn't doing a very good job. 00:12:14.406 --> 00:12:16.421 The more optimistic you were, 00:12:16.421 --> 00:12:18.758 the less likely this region was 00:12:18.758 --> 00:12:21.740 to respond to unexpected negative information. 00:12:21.740 --> 00:12:24.798 And if your brain is failing 00:12:24.798 --> 00:12:28.023 at integrating bad news about the future, 00:12:28.023 --> 00:12:32.646 you will constantly leave your rose-tinted spectacles on. NOTE Paragraph 00:12:32.646 --> 00:12:37.615 So we wanted to know, could we change this? 00:12:37.615 --> 00:12:41.058 Could we alter people's optimism bias 00:12:41.058 --> 00:12:44.990 by interfering with the brain activity in these regions? 00:12:44.990 --> 00:12:47.585 And there's a way for us to do that. NOTE Paragraph 00:12:47.585 --> 00:12:50.212 This is my collaborator Ryota Kanai. 00:12:50.212 --> 00:12:54.167 And what he's doing is he's passing a small magnetic pulse 00:12:54.167 --> 00:12:56.286 through the skull of the participant in our study 00:12:56.286 --> 00:12:58.531 into their inferior frontal gyrus. 00:12:58.531 --> 00:13:00.458 And by doing that, 00:13:00.458 --> 00:13:03.362 he's interfering with the activity of this brain region 00:13:03.362 --> 00:13:04.577 for about half an hour. 00:13:04.577 --> 00:13:07.498 After that everything goes back to normal, I assure you. NOTE Paragraph 00:13:07.498 --> 00:13:09.491 (Laughter) NOTE Paragraph 00:13:09.491 --> 00:13:12.645 So let's see what happens. 00:13:12.645 --> 00:13:14.742 First of all, I'm going to show you 00:13:14.742 --> 00:13:17.446 the average amount of bias that we see. 00:13:17.446 --> 00:13:20.269 So if I was to test all of you now, 00:13:20.269 --> 00:13:22.063 this is the amount that you would learn 00:13:22.063 --> 00:13:25.183 more from good news relative to bad news. 00:13:25.183 --> 00:13:27.667 Now we interfere with the region 00:13:27.667 --> 00:13:32.134 that we found to integrate negative information in this task, 00:13:32.134 --> 00:13:35.698 and the optimism bias grew even larger. 00:13:35.698 --> 00:13:41.168 We made people more biased in the way that they process information. 00:13:41.168 --> 00:13:44.065 Then we interfered with the brain region 00:13:44.065 --> 00:13:47.583 that we found to integrate good news in this task, 00:13:47.583 --> 00:13:52.054 and the optimism bias disappeared. 00:13:52.054 --> 00:13:54.062 We were quite amazed by these results 00:13:54.062 --> 00:13:56.254 because we were able to eliminate 00:13:56.254 --> 00:13:59.450 a deep-rooted bias in humans. NOTE Paragraph 00:13:59.450 --> 00:14:04.223 And at this point we stopped and we asked ourselves, 00:14:04.223 --> 00:14:09.325 would we want to shatter the optimism illusion into tiny little bits? 00:14:09.325 --> 00:14:14.369 If we could do that, would we want to take people's optimism bias away? 00:14:14.369 --> 00:14:18.969 Well I've already told you about all of the benefits of the optimism bias, 00:14:18.969 --> 00:14:23.290 which probably makes you want to hold onto it for dear life. 00:14:23.290 --> 00:14:25.375 But there are, of course, pitfalls, 00:14:25.375 --> 00:14:28.495 and it would be really foolish of us to ignore them. NOTE Paragraph 00:14:28.495 --> 00:14:32.041 Take for example this email I recieved 00:14:32.041 --> 00:14:34.735 from a firefighter here in California. 00:14:34.735 --> 00:14:38.039 He says, "Fatality investigations for firefighters 00:14:38.039 --> 00:14:42.181 often include 'We didn't think the fire was going to do that,' 00:14:42.181 --> 00:14:44.483 even when all of the available information 00:14:44.483 --> 00:14:46.738 was there to make safe decisions." 00:14:46.738 --> 00:14:50.612 This captain is going to use our findings on the optimism bias 00:14:50.612 --> 00:14:52.804 to try to explain to the firefighters 00:14:52.804 --> 00:14:55.013 why they think the way they do, 00:14:55.013 --> 00:15:02.139 to make them acutely aware of this very optimistic bias in humans. NOTE Paragraph 00:15:02.139 --> 00:15:07.258 So unrealistic optimism can lead to risky behavior, 00:15:07.258 --> 00:15:10.896 to financial collapse, to faulty planning. 00:15:10.896 --> 00:15:13.034 The British government, for example, 00:15:13.034 --> 00:15:15.708 has acknowledged that the optimism bias 00:15:15.708 --> 00:15:18.995 can make individuals more likely 00:15:18.995 --> 00:15:23.021 to underestimate the costs and durations of projects. 00:15:23.021 --> 00:15:27.275 So they have adjusted the 2012 Olympic budget 00:15:27.275 --> 00:15:29.386 for the optimism bias. NOTE Paragraph 00:15:29.386 --> 00:15:31.573 My friend who's getting married in a few weeks 00:15:31.573 --> 00:15:34.007 has done the same for his wedding budget. 00:15:34.007 --> 00:15:37.069 And by the way, when I asked him about his own likelihood of divorce, 00:15:37.069 --> 00:15:40.629 he said he was quite sure it was zero percent. NOTE Paragraph 00:15:40.629 --> 00:15:43.046 So what we would really like to do, 00:15:43.046 --> 00:15:47.207 is we would like to protect ourselves from the dangers of optimism, 00:15:47.207 --> 00:15:50.435 but at the same time remain hopeful, 00:15:50.435 --> 00:15:53.279 benefiting from the many fruits of optimism. 00:15:53.279 --> 00:15:56.083 And I believe there's a way for us to do that. 00:15:56.083 --> 00:15:58.143 The key here really is knowledge. 00:15:58.143 --> 00:16:01.454 We're not born with an innate understanding of our biases. 00:16:01.454 --> 00:16:05.295 These have to be identified by scientific investigation. 00:16:05.295 --> 00:16:09.479 But the good news is that becoming aware of the optimism bias 00:16:09.479 --> 00:16:11.254 does not shatter the illusion. 00:16:11.254 --> 00:16:12.802 It's like visual illusions, 00:16:12.802 --> 00:16:16.292 in which understanding them does not make them go away. 00:16:16.292 --> 00:16:18.529 And this is good because it means 00:16:18.529 --> 00:16:21.002 we should be able to strike a balance, 00:16:21.002 --> 00:16:23.429 to come up with plans and rules 00:16:23.429 --> 00:16:26.212 to protect ourselves from unrealistic optimism, 00:16:26.212 --> 00:16:29.364 but at the same time remain hopeful. NOTE Paragraph 00:16:29.364 --> 00:16:32.788 I think this cartoon portrays it nicely. 00:16:32.788 --> 00:16:36.314 Because if you're one of these pessimistic penguins up there 00:16:36.314 --> 00:16:38.433 who just does not believe they can fly, 00:16:38.433 --> 00:16:40.792 you certainly never will. 00:16:40.792 --> 00:16:42.623 Because to make any kind of progress, 00:16:42.623 --> 00:16:44.973 we need to be able to imagine a different reality, 00:16:44.973 --> 00:16:48.704 and then we need to believe that that reality is possible. 00:16:48.714 --> 00:16:52.238 But if you are an extreme optimistic penguin 00:16:52.238 --> 00:16:55.000 who just jumps down blindly hoping for the best, 00:16:55.000 --> 00:16:59.781 you might find yourself in a bit of a mess when you hit the ground. 00:16:59.781 --> 00:17:01.670 But if you're an optimistic penguin 00:17:01.670 --> 00:17:03.466 who believes they can fly, 00:17:03.466 --> 00:17:06.129 but then adjusts a parachute to your back 00:17:06.129 --> 00:17:09.146 just in case things don't work out exactly as you had planned, 00:17:09.146 --> 00:17:11.009 you will soar like an eagle, 00:17:11.009 --> 00:17:14.058 even if you're just a penguin. NOTE Paragraph 00:17:14.058 --> 00:17:15.820 Thank you. NOTE Paragraph 00:17:15.820 --> 00:17:18.756 (Applause)