[Script Info]
Title: 
[Events]
Format: Layer, Start, End, Style, Name, MarginL, MarginR, MarginV, Effect, Text
Dialogue: 0,0:00:00.15,0:00:03.53,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,I'm going to talk to you about optimism --
Dialogue: 0,0:00:03.53,0:00:06.01,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,or more precisely, the optimism bias.
Dialogue: 0,0:00:06.01,0:00:07.66,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,It's a cognitive illusion
Dialogue: 0,0:00:07.66,0:00:10.40,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that we've been studying in my lab for the past few years,
Dialogue: 0,0:00:10.40,0:00:12.14,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and 80 percent of us have it.
Dialogue: 0,0:00:12.14,0:00:14.87,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,It's our tendency to overestimate
Dialogue: 0,0:00:14.87,0:00:17.79,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,our likelihood of experiencing good events in our lives
Dialogue: 0,0:00:17.79,0:00:21.90,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and underestimate our likelihood of experiencing bad events.
Dialogue: 0,0:00:21.90,0:00:24.92,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So we underestimate our likelihood of suffering from cancer,
Dialogue: 0,0:00:24.92,0:00:26.42,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,being in a car accident.
Dialogue: 0,0:00:26.42,0:00:29.61,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,We overestimate our longevity, our career prospects.
Dialogue: 0,0:00:29.61,0:00:33.05,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,In short, we're more optimistic than realistic,
Dialogue: 0,0:00:33.05,0:00:35.22,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,but we are oblivious to the fact.
Dialogue: 0,0:00:35.22,0:00:37.44,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Take marriage for example.
Dialogue: 0,0:00:37.44,0:00:40.98,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,In the Western world, divorce rates are about 40 percent.
Dialogue: 0,0:00:40.98,0:00:44.45,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,That means that out of five married couples,
Dialogue: 0,0:00:44.45,0:00:47.17,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,two will end up splitting their assets.
Dialogue: 0,0:00:47.17,0:00:50.54,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,But when you ask newlyweds about their own likelihood of divorce,
Dialogue: 0,0:00:50.54,0:00:54.23,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,they estimate it at zero percent.
Dialogue: 0,0:00:54.23,0:00:57.96,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And even divorce lawyers, who should really know better,
Dialogue: 0,0:00:57.96,0:01:01.81,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,hugely underestimate their own likelihood of divorce.
Dialogue: 0,0:01:01.81,0:01:04.94,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So it turns out that optimists are not less likely to divorce,
Dialogue: 0,0:01:04.94,0:01:07.47,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,but they are more likely to remarry.
Dialogue: 0,0:01:07.47,0:01:09.77,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,In the words of Samuel Johnson,
Dialogue: 0,0:01:09.77,0:01:13.77,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,"Remarriage is the triumph of hope over experience."
Dialogue: 0,0:01:13.77,0:01:15.73,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,(Laughter)
Dialogue: 0,0:01:15.73,0:01:20.30,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So if we're married, we're more likely to have kids.
Dialogue: 0,0:01:20.30,0:01:23.57,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And we all think our kids will be especially talented.
Dialogue: 0,0:01:23.57,0:01:26.17,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,This, by the way, is my two-year-old nephew, Guy.
Dialogue: 0,0:01:26.17,0:01:28.54,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And I just want to make it absolutely clear
Dialogue: 0,0:01:28.54,0:01:31.31,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that he's a really bad example of the optimism bias,
Dialogue: 0,0:01:31.31,0:01:34.12,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,because he is in fact uniquely talented.
Dialogue: 0,0:01:34.12,0:01:35.56,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,(Laughter)
Dialogue: 0,0:01:35.56,0:01:37.17,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And I'm not alone.
Dialogue: 0,0:01:37.17,0:01:39.64,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Out of four British people, three said
Dialogue: 0,0:01:39.64,0:01:43.38,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that they were optimistic about the future of their own families.
Dialogue: 0,0:01:43.38,0:01:45.13,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,That's 75 percent.
Dialogue: 0,0:01:45.13,0:01:47.19,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,But only 30 percent said
Dialogue: 0,0:01:47.19,0:01:49.75,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that they thought families in general
Dialogue: 0,0:01:49.75,0:01:52.16,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,are doing better than a few generations ago.
Dialogue: 0,0:01:52.16,0:01:54.18,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And this is a really important point,
Dialogue: 0,0:01:54.18,0:01:56.07,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,because we're optimistic about ourselves,
Dialogue: 0,0:01:56.07,0:01:57.89,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,we're optimistic about our kids,
Dialogue: 0,0:01:57.89,0:01:59.68,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,we're optimistic about our families,
Dialogue: 0,0:01:59.68,0:02:02.86,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,but we're not so optimistic about the guy sitting next to us,
Dialogue: 0,0:02:02.86,0:02:05.09,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and we're somewhat pessimistic
Dialogue: 0,0:02:05.09,0:02:08.97,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,about the fate of our fellow citizens and the fate of our country.
Dialogue: 0,0:02:08.97,0:02:13.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,But private optimism about our own personal future
Dialogue: 0,0:02:13.00,0:02:15.02,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,remains persistent.
Dialogue: 0,0:02:15.02,0:02:19.08,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And it doesn't mean that we think things will magically turn out okay,
Dialogue: 0,0:02:19.08,0:02:23.11,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,but rather that we have the unique ability to make it so.
Dialogue: 0,0:02:23.11,0:02:25.95,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Now I'm a scientist, I do experiments.
Dialogue: 0,0:02:25.95,0:02:27.75,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So to show you what I mean,
Dialogue: 0,0:02:27.75,0:02:30.55,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,I'm going to do an experiment here with you.
Dialogue: 0,0:02:30.55,0:02:34.40,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So I'm going to give you a list of abilities and characteristics,
Dialogue: 0,0:02:34.40,0:02:37.29,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and I want you to think for each of these abilities
Dialogue: 0,0:02:37.29,0:02:41.68,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,where you stand relative to the rest of the population.
Dialogue: 0,0:02:41.68,0:02:45.47,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,The first one is getting along well with others.
Dialogue: 0,0:02:45.47,0:02:51.12,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Who here believes they're at the bottom 25 percent?
Dialogue: 0,0:02:51.12,0:02:55.44,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Okay, that's about 10 people out of 1,500.
Dialogue: 0,0:02:55.44,0:02:59.46,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Who believes they're at the top 25 percent?
Dialogue: 0,0:02:59.46,0:03:02.17,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,That's most of us here.
Dialogue: 0,0:03:02.17,0:03:07.10,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Okay, now do the same for your driving ability.
Dialogue: 0,0:03:07.10,0:03:09.68,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,How interesting are you?
Dialogue: 0,0:03:09.68,0:03:12.52,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,How attractive are you?
Dialogue: 0,0:03:12.52,0:03:15.48,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,How honest are you?
Dialogue: 0,0:03:15.48,0:03:20.48,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And finally, how modest are you?
Dialogue: 0,0:03:20.48,0:03:23.17,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So most of us put ourselves above average
Dialogue: 0,0:03:23.17,0:03:25.20,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,on most of these abilities.
Dialogue: 0,0:03:25.20,0:03:27.33,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Now this is statistically impossible.
Dialogue: 0,0:03:27.33,0:03:30.56,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,We can't all be better than everyone else.
Dialogue: 0,0:03:30.56,0:03:32.20,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,(Laughter)
Dialogue: 0,0:03:32.20,0:03:34.88,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,But if we believe we're better than the other guy,
Dialogue: 0,0:03:34.88,0:03:38.96,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,well that means that we're more likely to get that promotion, to remain married,
Dialogue: 0,0:03:38.96,0:03:41.56,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,because we're more social, more interesting.
Dialogue: 0,0:03:41.56,0:03:43.72,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And it's a global phenomenon.
Dialogue: 0,0:03:43.72,0:03:46.19,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,The optimism bias has been observed
Dialogue: 0,0:03:46.19,0:03:47.91,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,in many different countries --
Dialogue: 0,0:03:47.91,0:03:51.01,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,in Western cultures, in non-Western cultures,
Dialogue: 0,0:03:51.01,0:03:52.52,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,in females and males,
Dialogue: 0,0:03:52.52,0:03:54.24,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,in kids, in the elderly.
Dialogue: 0,0:03:54.24,0:03:56.02,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,It's quite widespread.
Dialogue: 0,0:03:56.02,0:03:59.52,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,But the question is, is it good for us?
Dialogue: 0,0:03:59.52,0:04:01.98,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So some people say no.
Dialogue: 0,0:04:01.98,0:04:04.50,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Some people say the secret to happiness
Dialogue: 0,0:04:04.50,0:04:07.25,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,is low expectations.
Dialogue: 0,0:04:07.25,0:04:09.75,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,I think the logic goes something like this:
Dialogue: 0,0:04:09.75,0:04:12.01,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,If we don't expect greatness,
Dialogue: 0,0:04:12.01,0:04:15.89,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,if we don't expect to find love and be healthy and successful,
Dialogue: 0,0:04:15.89,0:04:18.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,well we're not going to be disappointed when these things don't happen.
Dialogue: 0,0:04:18.99,0:04:22.40,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And if we're not disappointed when good things don't happen,
Dialogue: 0,0:04:22.40,0:04:24.38,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and we're pleasantly surprised when they do,
Dialogue: 0,0:04:24.38,0:04:26.16,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,we will be happy.
Dialogue: 0,0:04:26.16,0:04:27.86,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So it's a very good theory,
Dialogue: 0,0:04:27.86,0:04:30.88,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,but it turns out to be wrong for three reasons.
Dialogue: 0,0:04:30.88,0:04:35.50,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Number one: Whatever happens, whether you succeed or you fail,
Dialogue: 0,0:04:35.50,0:04:39.36,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,people with high expectations always feel better.
Dialogue: 0,0:04:39.36,0:04:43.29,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Because how we feel when we get dumped or win employee of the month
Dialogue: 0,0:04:43.29,0:04:46.32,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,depends on how we interpret that event.
Dialogue: 0,0:04:46.32,0:04:50.37,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,The psychologists Margaret Marshall and John Brown
Dialogue: 0,0:04:50.37,0:04:53.36,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,studied students with high and low expectations.
Dialogue: 0,0:04:53.36,0:04:57.55,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And they found that when people with high expectations succeed,
Dialogue: 0,0:04:57.55,0:05:00.46,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,they attribute that success to their own traits.
Dialogue: 0,0:05:00.46,0:05:02.65,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,"I'm a genius, therefore I got an A,
Dialogue: 0,0:05:02.65,0:05:05.33,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,therefore I'll get an A again and again in the future."
Dialogue: 0,0:05:05.33,0:05:08.30,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,When they failed, it wasn't because they were dumb,
Dialogue: 0,0:05:08.30,0:05:11.48,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,but because the exam just happened to be unfair.
Dialogue: 0,0:05:11.48,0:05:13.76,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Next time they will do better.
Dialogue: 0,0:05:13.76,0:05:16.84,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,People with low expectations do the opposite.
Dialogue: 0,0:05:16.84,0:05:19.67,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So when they failed it was because they were dumb,
Dialogue: 0,0:05:19.67,0:05:21.17,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and when they succeeded
Dialogue: 0,0:05:21.17,0:05:24.48,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,it was because the exam just happened to be really easy.
Dialogue: 0,0:05:24.48,0:05:26.88,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Next time reality would catch up with them.
Dialogue: 0,0:05:26.88,0:05:28.96,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So they felt worse.
Dialogue: 0,0:05:28.96,0:05:32.20,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Number two: Regardless of the outcome,
Dialogue: 0,0:05:32.20,0:05:36.24,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,the pure act of anticipation makes us happy.
Dialogue: 0,0:05:36.24,0:05:39.42,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,The behavioral economist George Lowenstein
Dialogue: 0,0:05:39.42,0:05:41.14,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,asked students in his university
Dialogue: 0,0:05:41.14,0:05:45.50,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,to imagine getting a passionate kiss from a celebrity, any celebrity.
Dialogue: 0,0:05:45.50,0:05:48.39,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Then he said, "How much are you willing to pay
Dialogue: 0,0:05:48.39,0:05:50.38,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,to get a kiss from a celebrity
Dialogue: 0,0:05:50.38,0:05:52.60,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,if the kiss was delivered immediately,
Dialogue: 0,0:05:52.60,0:05:57.62,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,in three hours, in 24 hours, in three days,
Dialogue: 0,0:05:57.62,0:06:00.06,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,in one year, in 10 years?
Dialogue: 0,0:06:00.06,0:06:03.19,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,He found that the students were willing to pay the most
Dialogue: 0,0:06:03.19,0:06:05.19,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,not to get a kiss immediately,
Dialogue: 0,0:06:05.19,0:06:08.17,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,but to get a kiss in three days.
Dialogue: 0,0:06:08.17,0:06:12.41,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,They were willing to pay extra in order to wait.
Dialogue: 0,0:06:12.41,0:06:15.42,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Now they weren't willing to wait a year or 10 years;
Dialogue: 0,0:06:15.42,0:06:16.84,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,no one wants an aging celebrity.
Dialogue: 0,0:06:16.84,0:06:21.63,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,But three days seemed to be the optimum amount.
Dialogue: 0,0:06:21.63,0:06:23.93,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So why is that?
Dialogue: 0,0:06:23.93,0:06:27.35,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Well if you get the kiss now, it's over and done with.
Dialogue: 0,0:06:27.35,0:06:29.30,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,But if you get the kiss in three days,
Dialogue: 0,0:06:29.30,0:06:33.46,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,well that's three days of jittery anticipation, the thrill of the wait.
Dialogue: 0,0:06:33.46,0:06:35.33,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,The students wanted that time
Dialogue: 0,0:06:35.33,0:06:37.71,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,to imagine where is it going to happen,
Dialogue: 0,0:06:37.71,0:06:39.34,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,how is it going to happen.
Dialogue: 0,0:06:39.34,0:06:41.55,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Anticipation made them happy.
Dialogue: 0,0:06:41.55,0:06:45.42,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,This is, by the way, why people prefer Friday to Sunday.
Dialogue: 0,0:06:45.42,0:06:47.50,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,It's a really curious fact,
Dialogue: 0,0:06:47.50,0:06:50.92,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,because Friday is a day of work and Sunday is a day of pleasure,
Dialogue: 0,0:06:50.92,0:06:53.82,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,so you'd assume that people will prefer Sunday,
Dialogue: 0,0:06:53.82,0:06:55.54,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,but they don't.
Dialogue: 0,0:06:55.54,0:06:58.42,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,It's not because they really, really like being in the office
Dialogue: 0,0:06:58.42,0:07:00.38,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and they can't stand strolling in the park
Dialogue: 0,0:07:00.38,0:07:02.04,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,or having a lazy brunch.
Dialogue: 0,0:07:02.04,0:07:04.18,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,We know that, because when you ask people
Dialogue: 0,0:07:04.18,0:07:06.88,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,about their ultimate favorite day of the week,
Dialogue: 0,0:07:06.88,0:07:09.70,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,surprise, surprise, Saturday comes in at first,
Dialogue: 0,0:07:09.70,0:07:12.62,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,then Friday, then Sunday.
Dialogue: 0,0:07:12.62,0:07:14.49,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,People prefer Friday
Dialogue: 0,0:07:14.49,0:07:18.46,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,because Friday brings with it the anticipation of the weekend ahead,
Dialogue: 0,0:07:18.46,0:07:20.38,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,all the plans that you have.
Dialogue: 0,0:07:20.38,0:07:23.08,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,On Sunday, the only thing you can look forward to
Dialogue: 0,0:07:23.08,0:07:25.33,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,is the work week.
Dialogue: 0,0:07:25.33,0:07:30.21,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So optimists are people who expect more kisses in their future,
Dialogue: 0,0:07:30.21,0:07:32.13,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,more strolls in the park.
Dialogue: 0,0:07:32.13,0:07:36.04,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And that anticipation enhances their wellbeing.
Dialogue: 0,0:07:36.04,0:07:39.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,In fact, without the optimism bias,
Dialogue: 0,0:07:39.00,0:07:41.75,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,we would all be slightly depressed.
Dialogue: 0,0:07:41.75,0:07:44.02,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,People with mild depression,
Dialogue: 0,0:07:44.02,0:07:46.100,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,they don't have a bias when they look into the future.
Dialogue: 0,0:07:46.100,0:07:51.22,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,They're actually more realistic than healthy individuals.
Dialogue: 0,0:07:51.22,0:07:53.32,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,But individuals with severe depression,
Dialogue: 0,0:07:53.32,0:07:55.15,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,they have a pessimistic bias.
Dialogue: 0,0:07:55.15,0:07:57.61,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So they tend to expect the future
Dialogue: 0,0:07:57.61,0:08:00.09,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,to be worse than it ends up being.
Dialogue: 0,0:08:00.09,0:08:03.33,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So optimism changes subjective reality.
Dialogue: 0,0:08:03.33,0:08:07.08,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,The way we expect the world to be changes the way we see it.
Dialogue: 0,0:08:07.08,0:08:10.32,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,But it also changes objective reality.
Dialogue: 0,0:08:10.32,0:08:13.05,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,It acts as a self-fulfilling prophecy.
Dialogue: 0,0:08:13.05,0:08:15.12,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And that is the third reason
Dialogue: 0,0:08:15.12,0:08:18.30,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,why lowering your expectations will not make you happy.
Dialogue: 0,0:08:18.30,0:08:20.14,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Controlled experiments have shown
Dialogue: 0,0:08:20.14,0:08:23.05,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that optimism is not only related to success,
Dialogue: 0,0:08:23.05,0:08:24.86,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,it leads to success.
Dialogue: 0,0:08:24.86,0:08:29.73,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Optimism leads to success in academia and sports and politics.
Dialogue: 0,0:08:29.73,0:08:34.20,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And maybe the most surprising benefit of optimism is health.
Dialogue: 0,0:08:34.20,0:08:37.53,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,If we expect the future to be bright,
Dialogue: 0,0:08:37.53,0:08:40.27,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,stress and anxiety are reduced.
Dialogue: 0,0:08:40.27,0:08:44.49,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So all in all, optimism has lots of benefits.
Dialogue: 0,0:08:44.49,0:08:47.50,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,But the question that was really confusing to me was,
Dialogue: 0,0:08:47.50,0:08:52.17,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,how do we maintain optimism in the face of reality?
Dialogue: 0,0:08:52.17,0:08:55.19,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,As an neuroscientist, this was especially confusing,
Dialogue: 0,0:08:55.19,0:08:58.08,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,because according to all the theories out there,
Dialogue: 0,0:08:58.08,0:09:02.27,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,when your expectations are not met, you should alter them.
Dialogue: 0,0:09:02.27,0:09:03.82,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,But this is not what we find.
Dialogue: 0,0:09:03.82,0:09:07.31,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,We asked people to come into our lab
Dialogue: 0,0:09:07.31,0:09:10.12,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,in order to try and figure out what was going on.
Dialogue: 0,0:09:10.12,0:09:12.66,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,We asked them to estimate their likelihood
Dialogue: 0,0:09:12.66,0:09:15.17,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,of experiencing different terrible events in their lives.
Dialogue: 0,0:09:15.17,0:09:19.54,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So, for example, what is your likelihood of suffering from cancer?
Dialogue: 0,0:09:19.54,0:09:21.89,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And then we told them the average likelihood
Dialogue: 0,0:09:21.89,0:09:24.88,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,of someone like them to suffer these misfortunes.
Dialogue: 0,0:09:24.88,0:09:28.44,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So cancer, for example, is about 30 percent.
Dialogue: 0,0:09:28.44,0:09:31.38,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And then we asked them again,
Dialogue: 0,0:09:31.38,0:09:34.25,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,"How likely are you to suffer from cancer?"
Dialogue: 0,0:09:34.25,0:09:36.50,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,What we wanted to know was
Dialogue: 0,0:09:36.50,0:09:39.17,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,whether people will take the information that we gave them
Dialogue: 0,0:09:39.17,0:09:41.30,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,to change their beliefs.
Dialogue: 0,0:09:41.30,0:09:43.67,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And indeed they did --
Dialogue: 0,0:09:43.67,0:09:46.25,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,but mostly when the information we gave them
Dialogue: 0,0:09:46.25,0:09:49.08,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,was better than what they expected.
Dialogue: 0,0:09:49.08,0:09:50.44,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So for example,
Dialogue: 0,0:09:50.44,0:09:53.35,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,if someone said, "My likelihood of suffering from cancer
Dialogue: 0,0:09:53.35,0:09:55.73,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,is about 50 percent,"
Dialogue: 0,0:09:55.73,0:09:58.25,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and we said, "Hey, good news.
Dialogue: 0,0:09:58.25,0:10:00.83,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,The average likelihood is only 30 percent,"
Dialogue: 0,0:10:00.83,0:10:02.88,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,the next time around they would say,
Dialogue: 0,0:10:02.88,0:10:05.59,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,"Well maybe my likelihood is about 35 percent."
Dialogue: 0,0:10:05.59,0:10:08.23,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So they learned quickly and efficiently.
Dialogue: 0,0:10:08.23,0:10:10.78,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,But if someone started off saying,
Dialogue: 0,0:10:10.78,0:10:14.18,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,"My average likelihood of suffering from cancer is about 10 percent,"
Dialogue: 0,0:10:14.18,0:10:16.88,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and we said, "Hey, bad news.
Dialogue: 0,0:10:16.88,0:10:19.95,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,The average likelihood is about 30 percent,"
Dialogue: 0,0:10:19.95,0:10:22.01,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,the next time around they would say,
Dialogue: 0,0:10:22.01,0:10:25.12,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,"Yep. Still think it's about 11 percent."
Dialogue: 0,0:10:25.12,0:10:26.82,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,(Laughter)
Dialogue: 0,0:10:26.82,0:10:30.13,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So it's not that they didn't learn at all -- they did --
Dialogue: 0,0:10:30.13,0:10:32.47,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,but much, much less than when we gave them
Dialogue: 0,0:10:32.47,0:10:34.94,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,positive information about the future.
Dialogue: 0,0:10:34.94,0:10:37.98,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And it's not that they didn't remember the numbers that we gave them;
Dialogue: 0,0:10:37.98,0:10:41.05,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,everyone remembers that the average likelihood of cancer
Dialogue: 0,0:10:41.05,0:10:42.55,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,is about 30 percent
Dialogue: 0,0:10:42.55,0:10:45.33,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and the average likelihood of divorce is about 40 percent.
Dialogue: 0,0:10:45.33,0:10:49.96,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,But they didn't think that those numbers were related to them.
Dialogue: 0,0:10:49.96,0:10:54.11,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,What this means is that warning signs such as these
Dialogue: 0,0:10:54.11,0:10:57.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,may only have limited impact.
Dialogue: 0,0:10:57.00,0:11:01.16,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Yes, smoking kills, but mostly it kills the other guy.
Dialogue: 0,0:11:01.16,0:11:03.04,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,What I wanted to know was
Dialogue: 0,0:11:03.04,0:11:05.90,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,what was going on inside the human brain
Dialogue: 0,0:11:05.90,0:11:09.100,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that prevented us from taking these warning signs personally.
Dialogue: 0,0:11:09.100,0:11:11.48,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,But at the same time,
Dialogue: 0,0:11:11.48,0:11:13.46,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,when we hear that the housing market is hopeful,
Dialogue: 0,0:11:13.46,0:11:17.58,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,we think, "Oh, my house is definitely going to double in price."
Dialogue: 0,0:11:17.58,0:11:19.66,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,To try and figure that out,
Dialogue: 0,0:11:19.66,0:11:22.14,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,I asked the participants in the experiment
Dialogue: 0,0:11:22.14,0:11:24.30,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,to lie in a brain imaging scanner.
Dialogue: 0,0:11:24.30,0:11:25.82,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,It looks like this.
Dialogue: 0,0:11:25.82,0:11:28.85,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And using a method called functional MRI,
Dialogue: 0,0:11:28.85,0:11:32.46,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,we were able to identify regions in the brain
Dialogue: 0,0:11:32.46,0:11:35.28,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that were responding to positive information.
Dialogue: 0,0:11:35.28,0:11:38.86,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,One of these regions is called the left inferior frontal gyrus.
Dialogue: 0,0:11:38.86,0:11:42.64,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So if someone said, "My likelihood of suffering from cancer is 50 percent,"
Dialogue: 0,0:11:42.64,0:11:44.50,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and we said, "Hey, good news.
Dialogue: 0,0:11:44.50,0:11:46.79,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Average likelihood is 30 percent,"
Dialogue: 0,0:11:46.79,0:11:50.36,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,the left inferior frontal gyrus would respond fiercely.
Dialogue: 0,0:11:50.36,0:11:55.09,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And it didn't matter if you're an extreme optimist, a mild optimist
Dialogue: 0,0:11:55.09,0:11:56.92,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,or slightly pessimistic,
Dialogue: 0,0:11:56.92,0:11:59.50,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,everyone's left inferior frontal gyrus
Dialogue: 0,0:11:59.50,0:12:01.34,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,was functioning perfectly well,
Dialogue: 0,0:12:01.34,0:12:04.25,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,whether you're Barack Obama or Woody Allen.
Dialogue: 0,0:12:04.25,0:12:05.89,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,On the other side of the brain,
Dialogue: 0,0:12:05.89,0:12:10.68,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,the right inferior frontal gyrus was responding to bad news.
Dialogue: 0,0:12:10.68,0:12:14.41,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And here's the thing: it wasn't doing a very good job.
Dialogue: 0,0:12:14.41,0:12:16.42,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,The more optimistic you were,
Dialogue: 0,0:12:16.42,0:12:18.76,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,the less likely this region was
Dialogue: 0,0:12:18.76,0:12:21.74,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,to respond to unexpected negative information.
Dialogue: 0,0:12:21.74,0:12:24.80,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And if your brain is failing
Dialogue: 0,0:12:24.80,0:12:28.02,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,at integrating bad news about the future,
Dialogue: 0,0:12:28.02,0:12:32.65,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,you will constantly leave your rose-tinted spectacles on.
Dialogue: 0,0:12:32.65,0:12:37.62,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So we wanted to know, could we change this?
Dialogue: 0,0:12:37.62,0:12:41.06,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Could we alter people's optimism bias
Dialogue: 0,0:12:41.06,0:12:44.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,by interfering with the brain activity in these regions?
Dialogue: 0,0:12:44.99,0:12:47.58,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And there's a way for us to do that.
Dialogue: 0,0:12:47.58,0:12:50.21,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,This is my collaborator Ryota Kanai.
Dialogue: 0,0:12:50.21,0:12:54.17,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And what he's doing is he's passing a small magnetic pulse
Dialogue: 0,0:12:54.17,0:12:56.29,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,through the skull of the participant in our study
Dialogue: 0,0:12:56.29,0:12:58.53,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,into their inferior frontal gyrus.
Dialogue: 0,0:12:58.53,0:13:00.46,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And by doing that,
Dialogue: 0,0:13:00.46,0:13:03.36,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,he's interfering with the activity of this brain region
Dialogue: 0,0:13:03.36,0:13:04.58,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,for about half an hour.
Dialogue: 0,0:13:04.58,0:13:07.50,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,After that everything goes back to normal, I assure you.
Dialogue: 0,0:13:07.50,0:13:09.49,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,(Laughter)
Dialogue: 0,0:13:09.49,0:13:12.64,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So let's see what happens.
Dialogue: 0,0:13:12.64,0:13:14.74,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,First of all, I'm going to show you
Dialogue: 0,0:13:14.74,0:13:17.45,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,the average amount of bias that we see.
Dialogue: 0,0:13:17.45,0:13:20.27,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So if I was to test all of you now,
Dialogue: 0,0:13:20.27,0:13:22.06,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,this is the amount that you would learn
Dialogue: 0,0:13:22.06,0:13:25.18,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,more from good news relative to bad news.
Dialogue: 0,0:13:25.18,0:13:27.67,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Now we interfere with the region
Dialogue: 0,0:13:27.67,0:13:32.13,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that we found to integrate negative information in this task,
Dialogue: 0,0:13:32.13,0:13:35.70,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and the optimism bias grew even larger.
Dialogue: 0,0:13:35.70,0:13:41.17,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,We made people more biased in the way that they process information.
Dialogue: 0,0:13:41.17,0:13:44.06,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Then we interfered with the brain region
Dialogue: 0,0:13:44.06,0:13:47.58,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that we found to integrate good news in this task,
Dialogue: 0,0:13:47.58,0:13:52.05,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and the optimism bias disappeared.
Dialogue: 0,0:13:52.05,0:13:54.06,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,We were quite amazed by these results
Dialogue: 0,0:13:54.06,0:13:56.25,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,because we were able to eliminate
Dialogue: 0,0:13:56.25,0:13:59.45,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,a deep-rooted bias in humans.
Dialogue: 0,0:13:59.45,0:14:04.22,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And at this point we stopped and we asked ourselves,
Dialogue: 0,0:14:04.22,0:14:09.32,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,would we want to shatter the optimism illusion into tiny little bits?
Dialogue: 0,0:14:09.32,0:14:14.37,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,If we could do that, would we want to take people's optimism bias away?
Dialogue: 0,0:14:14.37,0:14:18.97,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Well I've already told you about all of the benefits of the optimism bias,
Dialogue: 0,0:14:18.97,0:14:23.29,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,which probably makes you want to hold onto it for dear life.
Dialogue: 0,0:14:23.29,0:14:25.38,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,But there are, of course, pitfalls,
Dialogue: 0,0:14:25.38,0:14:28.50,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and it would be really foolish of us to ignore them.
Dialogue: 0,0:14:28.50,0:14:32.04,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Take for example this email I recieved
Dialogue: 0,0:14:32.04,0:14:34.74,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,from a firefighter here in California.
Dialogue: 0,0:14:34.74,0:14:38.04,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,He says, "Fatality investigations for firefighters
Dialogue: 0,0:14:38.04,0:14:42.18,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,often include 'We didn't think the fire was going to do that,'
Dialogue: 0,0:14:42.18,0:14:44.48,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,even when all of the available information
Dialogue: 0,0:14:44.48,0:14:46.74,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,was there to make safe decisions."
Dialogue: 0,0:14:46.74,0:14:50.61,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,This captain is going to use our findings on the optimism bias
Dialogue: 0,0:14:50.61,0:14:52.80,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,to try to explain to the firefighters
Dialogue: 0,0:14:52.80,0:14:55.01,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,why they think the way they do,
Dialogue: 0,0:14:55.01,0:15:02.14,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,to make them acutely aware of this very optimistic bias in humans.
Dialogue: 0,0:15:02.14,0:15:07.26,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So unrealistic optimism can lead to risky behavior,
Dialogue: 0,0:15:07.26,0:15:10.90,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,to financial collapse, to faulty planning.
Dialogue: 0,0:15:10.90,0:15:13.03,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,The British government, for example,
Dialogue: 0,0:15:13.03,0:15:15.71,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,has acknowledged that the optimism bias
Dialogue: 0,0:15:15.71,0:15:18.100,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,can make individuals more likely
Dialogue: 0,0:15:18.100,0:15:23.02,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,to underestimate the costs and durations of projects.
Dialogue: 0,0:15:23.02,0:15:27.28,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So they have adjusted the 2012 Olympic budget
Dialogue: 0,0:15:27.28,0:15:29.39,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,for the optimism bias.
Dialogue: 0,0:15:29.39,0:15:31.57,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,My friend who's getting married in a few weeks
Dialogue: 0,0:15:31.57,0:15:34.01,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,has done the same for his wedding budget.
Dialogue: 0,0:15:34.01,0:15:37.07,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And by the way, when I asked him about his own likelihood of divorce,
Dialogue: 0,0:15:37.07,0:15:40.63,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,he said he was quite sure it was zero percent.
Dialogue: 0,0:15:40.63,0:15:43.05,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So what we would really like to do,
Dialogue: 0,0:15:43.05,0:15:47.21,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,is we would like to protect ourselves from the dangers of optimism,
Dialogue: 0,0:15:47.21,0:15:50.44,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,but at the same time remain hopeful,
Dialogue: 0,0:15:50.44,0:15:53.28,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,benefiting from the many fruits of optimism.
Dialogue: 0,0:15:53.28,0:15:56.08,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And I believe there's a way for us to do that.
Dialogue: 0,0:15:56.08,0:15:58.14,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,The key here really is knowledge.
Dialogue: 0,0:15:58.14,0:16:01.45,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,We're not born with an innate understanding of our biases.
Dialogue: 0,0:16:01.45,0:16:05.30,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,These have to be identified by scientific investigation.
Dialogue: 0,0:16:05.30,0:16:09.48,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,But the good news is that becoming aware of the optimism bias
Dialogue: 0,0:16:09.48,0:16:11.25,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,does not shatter the illusion.
Dialogue: 0,0:16:11.25,0:16:12.80,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,It's like visual illusions,
Dialogue: 0,0:16:12.80,0:16:16.29,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,in which understanding them does not make them go away.
Dialogue: 0,0:16:16.29,0:16:18.53,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And this is good because it means
Dialogue: 0,0:16:18.53,0:16:21.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,we should be able to strike a balance,
Dialogue: 0,0:16:21.00,0:16:23.43,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,to come up with plans and rules
Dialogue: 0,0:16:23.43,0:16:26.21,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,to protect ourselves from unrealistic optimism,
Dialogue: 0,0:16:26.21,0:16:29.36,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,but at the same time remain hopeful.
Dialogue: 0,0:16:29.36,0:16:32.79,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,I think this cartoon portrays it nicely.
Dialogue: 0,0:16:32.79,0:16:36.31,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Because if you're one of these pessimistic penguins up there
Dialogue: 0,0:16:36.31,0:16:38.43,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,who just does not believe they can fly,
Dialogue: 0,0:16:38.43,0:16:40.79,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,you certainly never will.
Dialogue: 0,0:16:40.79,0:16:42.62,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Because to make any kind of progress,
Dialogue: 0,0:16:42.62,0:16:44.97,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,we need to be able to imagine a different reality,
Dialogue: 0,0:16:44.97,0:16:48.70,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and then we need to believe that that reality is possible.
Dialogue: 0,0:16:48.71,0:16:52.24,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,But if you are an extreme optimistic penguin
Dialogue: 0,0:16:52.24,0:16:55.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,who just jumps down blindly hoping for the best,
Dialogue: 0,0:16:55.00,0:16:59.78,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,you might find yourself in a bit of a mess when you hit the ground.
Dialogue: 0,0:16:59.78,0:17:01.67,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,But if you're an optimistic penguin
Dialogue: 0,0:17:01.67,0:17:03.47,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,who believes they can fly,
Dialogue: 0,0:17:03.47,0:17:06.13,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,but then adjusts a parachute to your back
Dialogue: 0,0:17:06.13,0:17:09.15,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,just in case things don't work out exactly as you had planned,
Dialogue: 0,0:17:09.15,0:17:11.01,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,you will soar like an eagle,
Dialogue: 0,0:17:11.01,0:17:14.06,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,even if you're just a penguin.
Dialogue: 0,0:17:14.06,0:17:15.82,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Thank you.
Dialogue: 0,0:17:15.82,0:17:18.76,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,(Applause)