0:00:00.148,0:00:03.530
I'm going to talk to you about optimism --

0:00:03.530,0:00:06.013
or more precisely, the optimism bias.

0:00:06.013,0:00:07.658
It's a cognitive illusion

0:00:07.658,0:00:10.400
that we've been studying in my lab for the past few years,

0:00:10.400,0:00:12.135
and 80 percent of us have it.

0:00:12.135,0:00:14.869
It's our tendency to overestimate

0:00:14.869,0:00:17.792
our likelihood of experiencing good events in our lives

0:00:17.792,0:00:21.900
and underestimate our likelihood of experiencing bad events.

0:00:21.900,0:00:24.917
So we underestimate our likelihood of suffering from cancer,

0:00:24.917,0:00:26.423
being in a car accident.

0:00:26.423,0:00:29.609
We overestimate our longevity, our career prospects.

0:00:29.609,0:00:33.054
In short, we're more optimistic than realistic,

0:00:33.054,0:00:35.216
but we are oblivious to the fact.

0:00:35.216,0:00:37.443
Take marriage for example.

0:00:37.443,0:00:40.977
In the Western world, divorce rates are about 40 percent.

0:00:40.977,0:00:44.446
That means that out of five married couples,

0:00:44.446,0:00:47.167
two will end up splitting their assets.

0:00:47.167,0:00:50.542
But when you ask newlyweds about their own likelihood of divorce,

0:00:50.542,0:00:54.234
they estimate it at zero percent.

0:00:54.234,0:00:57.963
And even divorce lawyers, who should really know better,

0:00:57.963,0:01:01.812
hugely underestimate their own likelihood of divorce.

0:01:01.812,0:01:04.938
So it turns out that optimists are not less likely to divorce,

0:01:04.938,0:01:07.468
but they are more likely to remarry.

0:01:07.468,0:01:09.771
In the words of Samuel Johnson,

0:01:09.771,0:01:13.768
"Remarriage is the triumph of hope over experience."

0:01:13.768,0:01:15.730
(Laughter)

0:01:15.730,0:01:20.304
So if we're married, we're more likely to have kids.

0:01:20.304,0:01:23.569
And we all think our kids will be especially talented.

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This, by the way, is my two-year-old nephew, Guy.

0:01:26.167,0:01:28.542
And I just want to make it absolutely clear

0:01:28.542,0:01:31.313
that he's a really bad example of the optimism bias,

0:01:31.313,0:01:34.125
because he is in fact uniquely talented.

0:01:34.125,0:01:35.560
(Laughter)

0:01:35.560,0:01:37.167
And I'm not alone.

0:01:37.167,0:01:39.642
Out of four British people, three said

0:01:39.642,0:01:43.381
that they were optimistic about the future of their own families.

0:01:43.381,0:01:45.132
That's 75 percent.

0:01:45.132,0:01:47.190
But only 30 percent said

0:01:47.190,0:01:49.750
that they thought families in general

0:01:49.750,0:01:52.162
are doing better than a few generations ago.

0:01:52.162,0:01:54.183
And this is a really important point,

0:01:54.183,0:01:56.071
because we're optimistic about ourselves,

0:01:56.071,0:01:57.889
we're optimistic about our kids,

0:01:57.889,0:01:59.677
we're optimistic about our families,

0:01:59.677,0:02:02.860
but we're not so optimistic about the guy sitting next to us,

0:02:02.860,0:02:05.089
and we're somewhat pessimistic

0:02:05.089,0:02:08.968
about the fate of our fellow citizens and the fate of our country.

0:02:08.968,0:02:13.004
But private optimism about our own personal future

0:02:13.004,0:02:15.015
remains persistent.

0:02:15.015,0:02:19.081
And it doesn't mean that we think things will magically turn out okay,

0:02:19.081,0:02:23.113
but rather that we have the unique ability to make it so.

0:02:23.113,0:02:25.954
Now I'm a scientist, I do experiments.

0:02:25.954,0:02:27.746
So to show you what I mean,

0:02:27.746,0:02:30.548
I'm going to do an experiment here with you.

0:02:30.548,0:02:34.398
So I'm going to give you a list of abilities and characteristics,

0:02:34.398,0:02:37.292
and I want you to think for each of these abilities

0:02:37.292,0:02:41.685
where you stand relative to the rest of the population.

0:02:41.685,0:02:45.471
The first one is getting along well with others.

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Who here believes they're at the bottom 25 percent?

0:02:51.123,0:02:55.445
Okay, that's about 10 people out of 1,500.

0:02:55.445,0:02:59.458
Who believes they're at the top 25 percent?

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That's most of us here.

0:03:02.168,0:03:07.098
Okay, now do the same for your driving ability.

0:03:07.098,0:03:09.681
How interesting are you?

0:03:09.681,0:03:12.525
How attractive are you?

0:03:12.525,0:03:15.479
How honest are you?

0:03:15.479,0:03:20.479
And finally, how modest are you?

0:03:20.479,0:03:23.167
So most of us put ourselves above average

0:03:23.167,0:03:25.196
on most of these abilities.

0:03:25.196,0:03:27.327
Now this is statistically impossible.

0:03:27.327,0:03:30.556
We can't all be better than everyone else.

0:03:30.556,0:03:32.198
(Laughter)

0:03:32.198,0:03:34.875
But if we believe we're better than the other guy,

0:03:34.875,0:03:38.958
well that means that we're more likely to get that promotion, to remain married,

0:03:38.958,0:03:41.556
because we're more social, more interesting.

0:03:41.556,0:03:43.719
And it's a global phenomenon.

0:03:43.719,0:03:46.187
The optimism bias has been observed

0:03:46.187,0:03:47.906
in many different countries --

0:03:47.906,0:03:51.010
in Western cultures, in non-Western cultures,

0:03:51.010,0:03:52.516
in females and males,

0:03:52.516,0:03:54.240
in kids, in the elderly.

0:03:54.240,0:03:56.023
It's quite widespread.

0:03:56.023,0:03:59.523
But the question is, is it good for us?

0:03:59.523,0:04:01.977
So some people say no.

0:04:01.977,0:04:04.495
Some people say the secret to happiness

0:04:04.495,0:04:07.248
is low expectations.

0:04:07.248,0:04:09.752
I think the logic goes something like this:

0:04:09.752,0:04:12.010
If we don't expect greatness,

0:04:12.010,0:04:15.890
if we don't expect to find love and be healthy and successful,

0:04:15.890,0:04:18.988
well we're not going to be disappointed when these things don't happen.

0:04:18.988,0:04:22.396
And if we're not disappointed when good things don't happen,

0:04:22.396,0:04:24.375
and we're pleasantly surprised when they do,

0:04:24.375,0:04:26.156
we will be happy.

0:04:26.156,0:04:27.858
So it's a very good theory,

0:04:27.858,0:04:30.885
but it turns out to be wrong for three reasons.

0:04:30.885,0:04:35.500
Number one: Whatever happens, whether you succeed or you fail,

0:04:35.500,0:04:39.358
people with high expectations always feel better.

0:04:39.358,0:04:43.290
Because how we feel when we get dumped or win employee of the month

0:04:43.290,0:04:46.320
depends on how we interpret that event.

0:04:46.320,0:04:50.370
The psychologists Margaret Marshall and John Brown

0:04:50.370,0:04:53.364
studied students with high and low expectations.

0:04:53.364,0:04:57.548
And they found that when people with high expectations succeed,

0:04:57.548,0:05:00.458
they attribute that success to their own traits.

0:05:00.458,0:05:02.654
"I'm a genius, therefore I got an A,

0:05:02.654,0:05:05.329
therefore I'll get an A again and again in the future."

0:05:05.329,0:05:08.302
When they failed, it wasn't because they were dumb,

0:05:08.302,0:05:11.475
but because the exam just happened to be unfair.

0:05:11.475,0:05:13.758
Next time they will do better.

0:05:13.758,0:05:16.835
People with low expectations do the opposite.

0:05:16.835,0:05:19.667
So when they failed it was because they were dumb,

0:05:19.667,0:05:21.167
and when they succeeded

0:05:21.167,0:05:24.484
it was because the exam just happened to be really easy.

0:05:24.484,0:05:26.885
Next time reality would catch up with them.

0:05:26.885,0:05:28.958
So they felt worse.

0:05:28.958,0:05:32.198
Number two: Regardless of the outcome,

0:05:32.198,0:05:36.245
the pure act of anticipation makes us happy.

0:05:36.245,0:05:39.421
The behavioral economist George Lowenstein

0:05:39.421,0:05:41.140
asked students in his university

0:05:41.140,0:05:45.502
to imagine getting a passionate kiss from a celebrity, any celebrity.

0:05:45.502,0:05:48.387
Then he said, "How much are you willing to pay

0:05:48.387,0:05:50.375
to get a kiss from a celebrity

0:05:50.375,0:05:52.602
if the kiss was delivered immediately,

0:05:52.602,0:05:57.625
in three hours, in 24 hours, in three days,

0:05:57.625,0:06:00.058
in one year, in 10 years?

0:06:00.058,0:06:03.188
He found that the students were willing to pay the most

0:06:03.188,0:06:05.187
not to get a kiss immediately,

0:06:05.187,0:06:08.167
but to get a kiss in three days.

0:06:08.167,0:06:12.414
They were willing to pay extra in order to wait.

0:06:12.414,0:06:15.417
Now they weren't willing to wait a year or 10 years;

0:06:15.417,0:06:16.838
no one wants an aging celebrity.

0:06:16.838,0:06:21.627
But three days seemed to be the optimum amount.

0:06:21.627,0:06:23.930
So why is that?

0:06:23.930,0:06:27.354
Well if you get the kiss now, it's over and done with.

0:06:27.354,0:06:29.304
But if you get the kiss in three days,

0:06:29.304,0:06:33.458
well that's three days of jittery anticipation, the thrill of the wait.

0:06:33.458,0:06:35.327
The students wanted that time

0:06:35.327,0:06:37.708
to imagine where is it going to happen,

0:06:37.708,0:06:39.337
how is it going to happen.

0:06:39.337,0:06:41.548
Anticipation made them happy.

0:06:41.548,0:06:45.417
This is, by the way, why people prefer Friday to Sunday.

0:06:45.417,0:06:47.500
It's a really curious fact,

0:06:47.500,0:06:50.917
because Friday is a day of work and Sunday is a day of pleasure,

0:06:50.917,0:06:53.821
so you'd assume that people will prefer Sunday,

0:06:53.821,0:06:55.542
but they don't.

0:06:55.542,0:06:58.417
It's not because they really, really like being in the office

0:06:58.417,0:07:00.384
and they can't stand strolling in the park

0:07:00.384,0:07:02.045
or having a lazy brunch.

0:07:02.045,0:07:04.181
We know that, because when you ask people

0:07:04.181,0:07:06.885
about their ultimate favorite day of the week,

0:07:06.885,0:07:09.705
surprise, surprise, Saturday comes in at first,

0:07:09.705,0:07:12.625
then Friday, then Sunday.

0:07:12.625,0:07:14.494
People prefer Friday

0:07:14.494,0:07:18.458
because Friday brings with it the anticipation of the weekend ahead,

0:07:18.458,0:07:20.375
all the plans that you have.

0:07:20.375,0:07:23.079
On Sunday, the only thing you can look forward to

0:07:23.079,0:07:25.333
is the work week.

0:07:25.333,0:07:30.210
So optimists are people who expect more kisses in their future,

0:07:30.210,0:07:32.131
more strolls in the park.

0:07:32.131,0:07:36.038
And that anticipation enhances their wellbeing.

0:07:36.038,0:07:39.002
In fact, without the optimism bias,

0:07:39.002,0:07:41.752
we would all be slightly depressed.

0:07:41.752,0:07:44.019
People with mild depression,

0:07:44.019,0:07:46.998
they don't have a bias when they look into the future.

0:07:46.998,0:07:51.220
They're actually more realistic than healthy individuals.

0:07:51.220,0:07:53.321
But individuals with severe depression,

0:07:53.321,0:07:55.150
they have a pessimistic bias.

0:07:55.150,0:07:57.613
So they tend to expect the future

0:07:57.613,0:08:00.090
to be worse than it ends up being.

0:08:00.090,0:08:03.333
So optimism changes subjective reality.

0:08:03.333,0:08:07.083
The way we expect the world to be changes the way we see it.

0:08:07.083,0:08:10.325
But it also changes objective reality.

0:08:10.325,0:08:13.052
It acts as a self-fulfilling prophecy.

0:08:13.052,0:08:15.120
And that is the third reason

0:08:15.120,0:08:18.300
why lowering your expectations will not make you happy.

0:08:18.300,0:08:20.135
Controlled experiments have shown

0:08:20.135,0:08:23.052
that optimism is not only related to success,

0:08:23.052,0:08:24.859
it leads to success.

0:08:24.859,0:08:29.729
Optimism leads to success in academia and sports and politics.

0:08:29.729,0:08:34.204
And maybe the most surprising benefit of optimism is health.

0:08:34.204,0:08:37.529
If we expect the future to be bright,

0:08:37.529,0:08:40.269
stress and anxiety are reduced.

0:08:40.269,0:08:44.489
So all in all, optimism has lots of benefits.

0:08:44.489,0:08:47.500
But the question that was really confusing to me was,

0:08:47.500,0:08:52.169
how do we maintain optimism in the face of reality?

0:08:52.169,0:08:55.187
As an neuroscientist, this was especially confusing,

0:08:55.187,0:08:58.083
because according to all the theories out there,

0:08:58.083,0:09:02.271
when your expectations are not met, you should alter them.

0:09:02.271,0:09:03.823
But this is not what we find.

0:09:03.823,0:09:07.306
We asked people to come into our lab

0:09:07.306,0:09:10.116
in order to try and figure out what was going on.

0:09:10.116,0:09:12.663
We asked them to estimate their likelihood

0:09:12.663,0:09:15.167
of experiencing different terrible events in their lives.

0:09:15.167,0:09:19.542
So, for example, what is your likelihood of suffering from cancer?

0:09:19.542,0:09:21.894
And then we told them the average likelihood

0:09:21.894,0:09:24.875
of someone like them to suffer these misfortunes.

0:09:24.875,0:09:28.440
So cancer, for example, is about 30 percent.

0:09:28.440,0:09:31.375
And then we asked them again,

0:09:31.375,0:09:34.250
"How likely are you to suffer from cancer?"

0:09:34.250,0:09:36.498
What we wanted to know was

0:09:36.498,0:09:39.167
whether people will take the information that we gave them

0:09:39.167,0:09:41.298
to change their beliefs.

0:09:41.298,0:09:43.667
And indeed they did --

0:09:43.667,0:09:46.248
but mostly when the information we gave them

0:09:46.248,0:09:49.079
was better than what they expected.

0:09:49.079,0:09:50.440
So for example,

0:09:50.440,0:09:53.350
if someone said, "My likelihood of suffering from cancer

0:09:53.350,0:09:55.731
is about 50 percent,"

0:09:55.731,0:09:58.252
and we said, "Hey, good news.

0:09:58.252,0:10:00.833
The average likelihood is only 30 percent,"

0:10:00.833,0:10:02.879
the next time around they would say,

0:10:02.879,0:10:05.594
"Well maybe my likelihood is about 35 percent."

0:10:05.594,0:10:08.230
So they learned quickly and efficiently.

0:10:08.230,0:10:10.780
But if someone started off saying,

0:10:10.780,0:10:14.183
"My average likelihood of suffering from cancer is about 10 percent,"

0:10:14.183,0:10:16.875
and we said, "Hey, bad news.

0:10:16.875,0:10:19.948
The average likelihood is about 30 percent,"

0:10:19.948,0:10:22.006
the next time around they would say,

0:10:22.006,0:10:25.125
"Yep. Still think it's about 11 percent."

0:10:25.125,0:10:26.815
(Laughter)

0:10:26.815,0:10:30.134
So it's not that they didn't learn at all -- they did --

0:10:30.134,0:10:32.470
but much, much less than when we gave them

0:10:32.470,0:10:34.943
positive information about the future.

0:10:34.943,0:10:37.977
And it's not that they didn't remember the numbers that we gave them;

0:10:37.977,0:10:41.050
everyone remembers that the average likelihood of cancer

0:10:41.050,0:10:42.550
is about 30 percent

0:10:42.550,0:10:45.329
and the average likelihood of divorce is about 40 percent.

0:10:45.329,0:10:49.960
But they didn't think that those numbers were related to them.

0:10:49.960,0:10:54.108
What this means is that warning signs such as these

0:10:54.108,0:10:57.000
may only have limited impact.

0:10:57.000,0:11:01.159
Yes, smoking kills, but mostly it kills the other guy.

0:11:01.159,0:11:03.042
What I wanted to know was

0:11:03.042,0:11:05.902
what was going on inside the human brain

0:11:05.902,0:11:09.996
that prevented us from taking these warning signs personally.

0:11:09.996,0:11:11.483
But at the same time,

0:11:11.483,0:11:13.461
when we hear that the housing market is hopeful,

0:11:13.461,0:11:17.577
we think, "Oh, my house is definitely going to double in price."

0:11:17.577,0:11:19.662
To try and figure that out,

0:11:19.662,0:11:22.135
I asked the participants in the experiment

0:11:22.135,0:11:24.296
to lie in a brain imaging scanner.

0:11:24.296,0:11:25.823
It looks like this.

0:11:25.823,0:11:28.854
And using a method called functional MRI,

0:11:28.854,0:11:32.460
we were able to identify regions in the brain

0:11:32.460,0:11:35.277
that were responding to positive information.

0:11:35.277,0:11:38.856
One of these regions is called the left inferior frontal gyrus.

0:11:38.856,0:11:42.644
So if someone said, "My likelihood of suffering from cancer is 50 percent,"

0:11:42.644,0:11:44.500
and we said, "Hey, good news.

0:11:44.500,0:11:46.790
Average likelihood is 30 percent,"

0:11:46.790,0:11:50.362
the left inferior frontal gyrus would respond fiercely.

0:11:50.362,0:11:55.094
And it didn't matter if you're an extreme optimist, a mild optimist

0:11:55.094,0:11:56.915
or slightly pessimistic,

0:11:56.915,0:11:59.500
everyone's left inferior frontal gyrus

0:11:59.500,0:12:01.344
was functioning perfectly well,

0:12:01.344,0:12:04.250
whether you're Barack Obama or Woody Allen.

0:12:04.250,0:12:05.894
On the other side of the brain,

0:12:05.894,0:12:10.680
the right inferior frontal gyrus was responding to bad news.

0:12:10.680,0:12:14.406
And here's the thing: it wasn't doing a very good job.

0:12:14.406,0:12:16.421
The more optimistic you were,

0:12:16.421,0:12:18.758
the less likely this region was

0:12:18.758,0:12:21.740
to respond to unexpected negative information.

0:12:21.740,0:12:24.798
And if your brain is failing

0:12:24.798,0:12:28.023
at integrating bad news about the future,

0:12:28.023,0:12:32.646
you will constantly leave your rose-tinted spectacles on.

0:12:32.646,0:12:37.615
So we wanted to know, could we change this?

0:12:37.615,0:12:41.058
Could we alter people's optimism bias

0:12:41.058,0:12:44.990
by interfering with the brain activity in these regions?

0:12:44.990,0:12:47.585
And there's a way for us to do that.

0:12:47.585,0:12:50.212
This is my collaborator Ryota Kanai.

0:12:50.212,0:12:54.167
And what he's doing is he's passing a small magnetic pulse

0:12:54.167,0:12:56.286
through the skull of the participant in our study

0:12:56.286,0:12:58.531
into their inferior frontal gyrus.

0:12:58.531,0:13:00.458
And by doing that,

0:13:00.458,0:13:03.362
he's interfering with the activity of this brain region

0:13:03.362,0:13:04.577
for about half an hour.

0:13:04.577,0:13:07.498
After that everything goes back to normal, I assure you.

0:13:07.498,0:13:09.491
(Laughter)

0:13:09.491,0:13:12.645
So let's see what happens.

0:13:12.645,0:13:14.742
First of all, I'm going to show you

0:13:14.742,0:13:17.446
the average amount of bias that we see.

0:13:17.446,0:13:20.269
So if I was to test all of you now,

0:13:20.269,0:13:22.063
this is the amount that you would learn

0:13:22.063,0:13:25.183
more from good news relative to bad news.

0:13:25.183,0:13:27.667
Now we interfere with the region

0:13:27.667,0:13:32.134
that we found to integrate negative information in this task,

0:13:32.134,0:13:35.698
and the optimism bias grew even larger.

0:13:35.698,0:13:41.168
We made people more biased in the way that they process information.

0:13:41.168,0:13:44.065
Then we interfered with the brain region

0:13:44.065,0:13:47.583
that we found to integrate good news in this task,

0:13:47.583,0:13:52.054
and the optimism bias disappeared.

0:13:52.054,0:13:54.062
We were quite amazed by these results

0:13:54.062,0:13:56.254
because we were able to eliminate

0:13:56.254,0:13:59.450
a deep-rooted bias in humans.

0:13:59.450,0:14:04.223
And at this point we stopped and we asked ourselves,

0:14:04.223,0:14:09.325
would we want to shatter the optimism illusion into tiny little bits?

0:14:09.325,0:14:14.369
If we could do that, would we want to take people's optimism bias away?

0:14:14.369,0:14:18.969
Well I've already told you about all of the benefits of the optimism bias,

0:14:18.969,0:14:23.290
which probably makes you want to hold onto it for dear life.

0:14:23.290,0:14:25.375
But there are, of course, pitfalls,

0:14:25.375,0:14:28.495
and it would be really foolish of us to ignore them.

0:14:28.495,0:14:32.041
Take for example this email I recieved

0:14:32.041,0:14:34.735
from a firefighter here in California.

0:14:34.735,0:14:38.039
He says, "Fatality investigations for firefighters

0:14:38.039,0:14:42.181
often include 'We didn't think the fire was going to do that,'

0:14:42.181,0:14:44.483
even when all of the available information

0:14:44.483,0:14:46.738
was there to make safe decisions."

0:14:46.738,0:14:50.612
This captain is going to use our findings on the optimism bias

0:14:50.612,0:14:52.804
to try to explain to the firefighters

0:14:52.804,0:14:55.013
why they think the way they do,

0:14:55.013,0:15:02.139
to make them acutely aware of this very optimistic bias in humans.

0:15:02.139,0:15:07.258
So unrealistic optimism can lead to risky behavior,

0:15:07.258,0:15:10.896
to financial collapse, to faulty planning.

0:15:10.896,0:15:13.034
The British government, for example,

0:15:13.034,0:15:15.708
has acknowledged that the optimism bias

0:15:15.708,0:15:18.995
can make individuals more likely

0:15:18.995,0:15:23.021
to underestimate the costs and durations of projects.

0:15:23.021,0:15:27.275
So they have adjusted the 2012 Olympic budget

0:15:27.275,0:15:29.386
for the optimism bias.

0:15:29.386,0:15:31.573
My friend who's getting married in a few weeks

0:15:31.573,0:15:34.007
has done the same for his wedding budget.

0:15:34.007,0:15:37.069
And by the way, when I asked him about his own likelihood of divorce,

0:15:37.069,0:15:40.629
he said he was quite sure it was zero percent.

0:15:40.629,0:15:43.046
So what we would really like to do,

0:15:43.046,0:15:47.207
is we would like to protect ourselves from the dangers of optimism,

0:15:47.207,0:15:50.435
but at the same time remain hopeful,

0:15:50.435,0:15:53.279
benefiting from the many fruits of optimism.

0:15:53.279,0:15:56.083
And I believe there's a way for us to do that.

0:15:56.083,0:15:58.143
The key here really is knowledge.

0:15:58.143,0:16:01.454
We're not born with an innate understanding of our biases.

0:16:01.454,0:16:05.295
These have to be identified by scientific investigation.

0:16:05.295,0:16:09.479
But the good news is that becoming aware of the optimism bias

0:16:09.479,0:16:11.254
does not shatter the illusion.

0:16:11.254,0:16:12.802
It's like visual illusions,

0:16:12.802,0:16:16.292
in which understanding them does not make them go away.

0:16:16.292,0:16:18.529
And this is good because it means

0:16:18.529,0:16:21.002
we should be able to strike a balance,

0:16:21.002,0:16:23.429
to come up with plans and rules

0:16:23.429,0:16:26.212
to protect ourselves from unrealistic optimism,

0:16:26.212,0:16:29.364
but at the same time remain hopeful.

0:16:29.364,0:16:32.788
I think this cartoon portrays it nicely.

0:16:32.788,0:16:36.314
Because if you're one of these pessimistic penguins up there

0:16:36.314,0:16:38.433
who just does not believe they can fly,

0:16:38.433,0:16:40.792
you certainly never will.

0:16:40.792,0:16:42.623
Because to make any kind of progress,

0:16:42.623,0:16:44.973
we need to be able to imagine a different reality,

0:16:44.973,0:16:48.704
and then we need to believe that that reality is possible.

0:16:48.714,0:16:52.238
But if you are an extreme optimistic penguin

0:16:52.238,0:16:55.000
who just jumps down blindly hoping for the best,

0:16:55.000,0:16:59.781
you might find yourself in a bit of a mess when you hit the ground.

0:16:59.781,0:17:01.670
But if you're an optimistic penguin

0:17:01.670,0:17:03.466
who believes they can fly,

0:17:03.466,0:17:06.129
but then adjusts a parachute to your back

0:17:06.129,0:17:09.146
just in case things don't work out exactly as you had planned,

0:17:09.146,0:17:11.009
you will soar like an eagle,

0:17:11.009,0:17:14.058
even if you're just a penguin.

0:17:14.058,0:17:15.820
Thank you.

0:17:15.820,0:17:18.756
(Applause)