WEBVTT

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As it turns out, when tens of millions
of people are unemployed

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or underemployed,

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there's a fair amount of interest
in what technology might be doing

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to the labor force.

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And as I look at the conversation,

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it strikes me that it's focused
on exactly the right topic,

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and at the same time,
it's missing the point entirely.

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The topic that it's focused on,

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the question is whether or not all these
digital technologies are affecting

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people's ability to earn a living,

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or, to say it a little bit different way,

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are the droids taking our jobs?

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And there's some evidence that they are.

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The Great Recession ended
when American GDP resumed

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its kind of slow, steady march upward,

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and some other economic indicators
also started to rebound,

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and they got kind of healthy
kind of quickly.

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Corporate profits are quite high;

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in fact, if you include bank profits,

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they're higher than they've ever been.

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And business investment
in gear -- in equipment

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and hardware and software --
is at an all-time high.

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So the businesses are getting
out their checkbooks.

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What they're not really doing is hiring.

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So this red line

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is the employment-to-population ratio,

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in other words, the percentage
of working-age people in America

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who have work.

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And we see that it cratered
during the Great Recession,

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and it hasn't started
to bounce back at all.

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But the story is not
just a recession story.

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The decade that we've
just been through had

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relatively anemic job growth
all throughout,

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especially when we compare it
to other decades,

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and the 2000s are the only time
we have on record

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where there were fewer people working
at the end of the decade

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than at the beginning.

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This is not what you want to see.

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When you graph the number
of potential employees

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versus the number of jobs in the country,

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you see the gap gets bigger
and bigger over time,

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and then, during the Great Recession,
it opened up in a huge way.

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I did some quick calculations.

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I took the last 20 years of GDP growth

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and the last 20 years
of labor-productivity growth

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and used those in a fairly
straightforward way

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to try to project how many jobs
the economy was going to need

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to keep growing,

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and this is the line that I came up with.

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Is that good or bad?

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This is the government's projection

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for the working-age
population going forward.

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So if these predictions are accurate,
that gap is not going to close.

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The problem is, I don't think
these projections are accurate.

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In particular, I think my projection
is way too optimistic,

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because when I did it,

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I was assuming that the future
was kind of going to look like the past,

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with labor productivity growth,

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and that's actually not what I believe.

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Because when I look around,

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I think that we ain't seen nothing yet

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when it comes to technology's
impact on the labor force.

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Just in the past couple years,
we've seen digital tools

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display skills and abilities
that they never, ever had before,

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and that kind of eat deeply
into what we human beings

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do for a living.

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Let me give you a couple examples.

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Throughout all of history,

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if you wanted something translated
from one language into another,

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you had to involve a human being.

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Now we have multi-language, instantaneous,

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automatic translation services
available for free

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via many of our devices,
all the way down to smartphones.

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And if any of us have used these,

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we know that they're not perfect,
but they're decent.

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Throughout all of history,
if you wanted something written,

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a report or an article,
you had to involve a person.

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Not anymore.

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This is an article that appeared
in Forbes online a while back,

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about Apple's earnings.

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It was written by an algorithm.

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And it's not decent -- it's perfect.

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A lot of people look at this and they say,

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"OK, but those are very
specific, narrow tasks,

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and most knowledge workers
are actually generalists.

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And what they do is sit on top of a very
large body of expertise and knowledge

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and they use that to react on the fly
to kind of unpredictable demands,

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and that's very, very hard to automate."

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One of the most impressive
knowledge workers in recent memory

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is a guy named Ken Jennings.

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He won the quiz show
"Jeopardy!" 74 times in a row.

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Took home three million dollars.

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That's Ken on the right,
getting beat three-to-one

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by Watson, the Jeopardy-playing
supercomputer from IBM.

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So when we look at what technology can do
to general knowledge workers,

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I start to think there might not be
something so special

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about this idea of a generalist,

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particularly when we start doing things
like hooking Siri up to Watson,

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and having technologies
that can understand what we're saying

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and repeat speech back to us.

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Now, Siri is far from perfect,
and we can make fun of her flaws,

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but we should also keep in mind

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that if technologies like Siri and Watson
improve along a Moore's law trajectory,

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which they will,

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in six years, they're not going to be two
times better or four times better,

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they'll be 16 times better
than they are right now.

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So I start to think a lot of knowledge
work is going to be affected by this.

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And digital technologies are not
just impacting knowledge work,

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they're starting to flex their muscles
in the physical world as well.

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I had the chance a little while back
to ride in the Google autonomous car,

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which is as cool as it sounds.

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(Laughter)

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And I will vouch that it handled
the stop-and-go traffic on US 101

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very smoothly.

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There are about three and a half million
people who drive trucks for a living

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in the United States;

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I think some of them are going
to be affected by this technology.

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And right now, humanoid robots
are still incredibly primitive.

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They can't do very much.

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But they're getting better quite quickly

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and DARPA, which is the investment arm
of the Defense Department,

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is trying to accelerate their trajectory.

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So, in short, yeah, the droids
are coming for our jobs.

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In the short term, we can
stimulate job growth

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by encouraging entrepreneurship

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and by investing in infrastructure,

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because the robots today
still aren't very good at fixing bridges.

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But in the not-too-long-term,

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I think within the lifetimes
of most of the people in this room,

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we're going to transition into an economy
that is very productive,

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but that just doesn't need
a lot of human workers.

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And managing that transition
is going to be the greatest challenge

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that our society faces.

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Voltaire summarized why; he said,

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"Work saves us from three great evils:
boredom, vice and need."

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But despite this challenge --

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personally, I'm still
a huge digital optimist,

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and I am supremely confident

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that the digital technologies
that we're developing now

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are going to take us
into a Utopian future,

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not a dystopian future.

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And to explain why,

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I want to pose a ridiculously
broad question.

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I want to ask:

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what have been the most important
developments in human history?

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Now, I want to share some
of the answers that I've gotten

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in response to this question.

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It's a wonderful question to ask
and start an endless debate about,

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because some people are going to bring up

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systems of philosophy
in both the West and the East

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that have changed how a lot
of people think about the world.

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And then other people will say,

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"No, actually, the big stories,
the big developments

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are the founding
of the world's major religions,

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which have changed civilizations
and have changed and influenced

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how countless people
are living their lives."

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And then some other folk will say,

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"Actually, what changes civilizations,

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what modifies them and what changes
people's lives are empires,

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so the great developments in human history

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are stories of conquest and of war."

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And then some cheery soul
usually always pipes up and says,

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"Hey, don't forget about plagues!"

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(Laughter)

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There are some optimistic
answers to this question,

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so some people will bring up
the Age of Exploration

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and the opening up of the world.

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Others will talk about intellectual
achievements in disciplines like math

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that have helped us get
a better handle on the world,

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and other folk will talk about periods
when there was a deep flourishing

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of the arts and sciences.

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So this debate will go on and on.

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It's an endless debate

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and there's no conclusive,
single answer to it.

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But if you're a geek like me,

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you say, "Well, what do the data say?"

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And you start to do things

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like graph things
that we might be interested in --

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the total worldwide
population, for example,

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or some measure of social development

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or the state of advancement of a society.

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And you start to plot the data,
because, by this approach,

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the big stories, the big
developments in human history,

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are the ones that will bend
these curves a lot.

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So when you do this
and when you plot the data,

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you pretty quickly come
to some weird conclusions.

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You conclude, actually,

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that none of these things
have mattered very much.

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(Laughter)

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They haven't done
a darn thing to the curves.

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There has been one story,
one development in human history

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that bent the curve,
bent it just about 90 degrees,

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and it is a technology story.

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The steam engine and the other
associated technologies

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of the Industrial Revolution

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changed the world and influenced
human history so much,

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that in the words
of the historian Ian Morris,

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"... they made mockery out of all
that had come before."

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And they did this by infinitely
multiplying the power of our muscles,

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overcoming the limitations of our muscles.

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Now, what we're in the middle of now

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is overcoming the limitations
of our individual brains

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and infinitely multiplying
our mental power.

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How can this not be as big a deal

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as overcoming the limitations
of our muscles?

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So at the risk of repeating
myself a little bit,

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when I look at what's going on
with digital technology these days,

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we are not anywhere near
through with this journey.

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And when I look at what is happening
to our economies and our societies,

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my single conclusion is that
we ain't seen nothing yet.

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The best days are really ahead.

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Let me give you a couple examples.

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Economies don't run on energy.

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They don't run on capital,
they don't run on labor.

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Economies run on ideas.

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So the work of innovation,
the work of coming up with new ideas,

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is some of the most powerful, most
fundamental work that we can do

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in an economy.

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And this is kind of how
we used to do innovation.

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We'd find a bunch of fairly
similar-looking people ...

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(Laughter)

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We'd take them out of elite institutions,

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we'd put them into other
elite institutions

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and we'd wait for the innovation.

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Now --

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(Laughter)

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as a white guy who spent
his whole career at MIT and Harvard,

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I've got no problem with this.

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(Laughter)

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But some other people do,

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and they've kind of crashed the party

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and loosened up
the dress code of innovation.

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(Laughter)

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So here are the winners of a Topcoder
programming challenge,

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and I assure you that nobody cares

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where these kids grew up,
where they went to school,

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or what they look like.

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All anyone cares about is the quality
of the work, the quality of the ideas.

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And over and over again,
we see this happening

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in the technology-facilitated world.

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The work of innovation
is becoming more open,

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more inclusive, more transparent
and more merit-based,

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and that's going to continue no matter
what MIT and Harvard think of it,

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and I couldn't be happier
about that development.

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I hear once in a while,
"OK, I'll grant you that,

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but technology is still a tool
for the rich world,

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and what's not happening,

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these digital tools are not
improving the lives

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of people at the bottom of the pyramid."

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And I want to say to that
very clearly: nonsense.

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The bottom of the pyramid is benefiting
hugely from technology.

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The economist Robert Jensen
did this wonderful study a while back

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where he watched, in great detail,

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what happened to the fishing
villages of Kerala, India,

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when they got mobile phones
for the very first time.

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And when you write for the Quarterly
Journal of Economics,

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you have to use very dry
and very circumspect language.

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But when I read his paper,

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I kind of feel Jensen
is trying to scream at us

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and say, "Look, this was a big deal.

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Prices stabilized, so people
could plan their economic lives.

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Waste was not reduced --
it was eliminated.

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And the lives of both
the buyers and the sellers

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in these villages measurably improved."

NOTE Paragraph

00:12:08.813 --> 00:12:12.603
Now, what I don't think
is that Jensen got extremely lucky

00:12:12.627 --> 00:12:14.838
and happened to land
in the one set of villages

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where technology made things better.

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What happened instead
is he very carefully documented

00:12:19.866 --> 00:12:23.945
what happens over and over again
when technology comes for the first time

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to an environment and a community:

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the lives of people, the welfares
of people, improve dramatically.

NOTE Paragraph

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So as I look around at all the evidence

00:12:31.696 --> 00:12:34.133
and I think about the room
that we have ahead of us,

00:12:34.157 --> 00:12:35.985
I become a huge digital optimist

00:12:36.009 --> 00:12:40.585
and I start to think that this wonderful
statement from the physicist Freeman Dyson

00:12:40.609 --> 00:12:42.347
is actually not hyperbole.

00:12:42.371 --> 00:12:44.880
This is an accurate assessment
of what's going on.

00:12:44.904 --> 00:12:47.602
Our technologies are great gifts,

00:12:47.626 --> 00:12:50.673
and we, right now,
have the great good fortune

00:12:50.697 --> 00:12:54.427
to be living at a time when
digital technology is flourishing,

00:12:54.451 --> 00:12:57.846
when it is broadening and deepening
and becoming more profound

00:12:57.870 --> 00:12:59.148
all around the world.

NOTE Paragraph

00:12:59.172 --> 00:13:02.447
So, yeah, the droids are taking our jobs,

00:13:02.471 --> 00:13:06.042
but focusing on that fact
misses the point entirely.

00:13:06.066 --> 00:13:09.566
The point is that then we
are freed up to do other things,

00:13:09.590 --> 00:13:11.877
and what we're going to do,
I am very confident,

00:13:11.901 --> 00:13:14.417
what we're going to do is reduce poverty

00:13:14.441 --> 00:13:16.910
and drudgery and misery around the world.

00:13:16.934 --> 00:13:20.939
I'm very confident we're going to learn
to live more lightly on the planet,

00:13:20.963 --> 00:13:24.388
and I am extremely confident
that what we're going to do

00:13:24.412 --> 00:13:25.787
with our new digital tools

00:13:25.811 --> 00:13:28.803
is going to be so profound
and so beneficial

00:13:28.827 --> 00:13:32.311
that it's going to make a mockery
out of everything that came before.

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I'm going to leave the last word

00:13:33.915 --> 00:13:36.569
to a guy who had a front-row seat
for digital progress,

00:13:36.593 --> 00:13:38.165
our old friend Ken Jennings.

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I'm with him; I'm going to echo his words:

00:13:40.456 --> 00:13:43.372
"I, for one, welcome our new
computer overlords."

NOTE Paragraph

00:13:43.396 --> 00:13:44.477
(Laughter)

NOTE Paragraph

00:13:44.501 --> 00:13:45.985
Thanks very much.

NOTE Paragraph

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(Applause)