[Script Info]
Title: 
[Events]
Format: Layer, Start, End, Style, Name, MarginL, MarginR, MarginV, Effect, Text
Dialogue: 0,0:00:00.39,0:00:03.97,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,As it turns out, when tens of millions\Nof people are unemployed
Dialogue: 0,0:00:03.99,0:00:05.53,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,or underemployed,
Dialogue: 0,0:00:05.55,0:00:08.72,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,there's a fair amount of interest\Nin what technology might be doing
Dialogue: 0,0:00:08.74,0:00:09.90,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,to the labor force.
Dialogue: 0,0:00:09.93,0:00:11.82,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And as I look at the conversation,
Dialogue: 0,0:00:11.84,0:00:15.52,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,it strikes me that it's focused\Non exactly the right topic,
Dialogue: 0,0:00:15.54,0:00:18.37,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and at the same time,\Nit's missing the point entirely.
Dialogue: 0,0:00:18.39,0:00:19.93,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,The topic that it's focused on,
Dialogue: 0,0:00:19.96,0:00:24.44,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,the question is whether or not all these\Ndigital technologies are affecting
Dialogue: 0,0:00:24.46,0:00:26.48,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,people's ability to earn a living,
Dialogue: 0,0:00:26.50,0:00:28.49,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,or, to say it a little bit different way,
Dialogue: 0,0:00:28.51,0:00:30.60,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,are the droids taking our jobs?
Dialogue: 0,0:00:30.63,0:00:32.56,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And there's some evidence that they are.
Dialogue: 0,0:00:32.59,0:00:36.63,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,The Great Recession ended\Nwhen American GDP resumed
Dialogue: 0,0:00:36.66,0:00:39.52,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,its kind of slow, steady march upward,
Dialogue: 0,0:00:39.55,0:00:42.82,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and some other economic indicators\Nalso started to rebound,
Dialogue: 0,0:00:42.84,0:00:45.14,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and they got kind of healthy\Nkind of quickly.
Dialogue: 0,0:00:45.16,0:00:47.33,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Corporate profits are quite high;
Dialogue: 0,0:00:47.35,0:00:49.25,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,in fact, if you include bank profits,
Dialogue: 0,0:00:49.27,0:00:51.26,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,they're higher than they've ever been.
Dialogue: 0,0:00:51.28,0:00:54.77,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And business investment\Nin gear -- in equipment
Dialogue: 0,0:00:54.80,0:00:57.64,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and hardware and software --\Nis at an all-time high.
Dialogue: 0,0:00:57.66,0:01:00.98,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So the businesses are getting\Nout their checkbooks.
Dialogue: 0,0:01:01.00,0:01:03.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,What they're not really doing is hiring.
Dialogue: 0,0:01:03.40,0:01:04.55,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So this red line
Dialogue: 0,0:01:04.58,0:01:07.11,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,is the employment-to-population ratio,
Dialogue: 0,0:01:07.14,0:01:11.27,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,in other words, the percentage\Nof working-age people in America
Dialogue: 0,0:01:11.29,0:01:12.68,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,who have work.
Dialogue: 0,0:01:12.70,0:01:15.81,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And we see that it cratered\Nduring the Great Recession,
Dialogue: 0,0:01:15.83,0:01:18.73,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and it hasn't started\Nto bounce back at all.
Dialogue: 0,0:01:18.75,0:01:21.67,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,But the story is not\Njust a recession story.
Dialogue: 0,0:01:21.70,0:01:23.78,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,The decade that we've\Njust been through had
Dialogue: 0,0:01:23.80,0:01:27.01,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,relatively anemic job growth\Nall throughout,
Dialogue: 0,0:01:27.04,0:01:29.66,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,especially when we compare it\Nto other decades,
Dialogue: 0,0:01:29.68,0:01:32.71,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and the 2000s are the only time\Nwe have on record
Dialogue: 0,0:01:32.74,0:01:36.27,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,where there were fewer people working\Nat the end of the decade
Dialogue: 0,0:01:36.29,0:01:37.70,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,than at the beginning.
Dialogue: 0,0:01:37.72,0:01:39.39,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,This is not what you want to see.
Dialogue: 0,0:01:39.72,0:01:43.11,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,When you graph the number\Nof potential employees
Dialogue: 0,0:01:43.13,0:01:45.69,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,versus the number of jobs in the country,
Dialogue: 0,0:01:45.71,0:01:49.56,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,you see the gap gets bigger\Nand bigger over time,
Dialogue: 0,0:01:49.58,0:01:52.90,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and then, during the Great Recession,\Nit opened up in a huge way.
Dialogue: 0,0:01:52.92,0:01:54.38,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,I did some quick calculations.
Dialogue: 0,0:01:54.40,0:01:56.84,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,I took the last 20 years of GDP growth
Dialogue: 0,0:01:56.86,0:02:00.13,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and the last 20 years\Nof labor-productivity growth
Dialogue: 0,0:02:00.16,0:02:02.87,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and used those in a fairly\Nstraightforward way
Dialogue: 0,0:02:02.90,0:02:05.92,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,to try to project how many jobs\Nthe economy was going to need
Dialogue: 0,0:02:05.94,0:02:07.25,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,to keep growing,
Dialogue: 0,0:02:07.27,0:02:09.40,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and this is the line that I came up with.
Dialogue: 0,0:02:09.42,0:02:11.16,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Is that good or bad?
Dialogue: 0,0:02:11.19,0:02:13.10,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,This is the government's projection
Dialogue: 0,0:02:13.12,0:02:16.46,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,for the working-age\Npopulation going forward.
Dialogue: 0,0:02:16.48,0:02:21.58,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So if these predictions are accurate,\Nthat gap is not going to close.
Dialogue: 0,0:02:21.60,0:02:24.63,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,The problem is, I don't think\Nthese projections are accurate.
Dialogue: 0,0:02:24.65,0:02:28.13,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,In particular, I think my projection\Nis way too optimistic,
Dialogue: 0,0:02:28.16,0:02:29.60,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,because when I did it,
Dialogue: 0,0:02:29.63,0:02:33.84,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,I was assuming that the future\Nwas kind of going to look like the past,
Dialogue: 0,0:02:33.87,0:02:35.54,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,with labor productivity growth,
Dialogue: 0,0:02:35.56,0:02:37.43,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and that's actually not what I believe.
Dialogue: 0,0:02:37.46,0:02:38.81,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Because when I look around,
Dialogue: 0,0:02:38.83,0:02:41.05,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,I think that we ain't seen nothing yet
Dialogue: 0,0:02:41.07,0:02:44.31,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,when it comes to technology's\Nimpact on the labor force.
Dialogue: 0,0:02:44.70,0:02:48.67,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Just in the past couple years,\Nwe've seen digital tools
Dialogue: 0,0:02:48.70,0:02:52.93,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,display skills and abilities\Nthat they never, ever had before,
Dialogue: 0,0:02:52.95,0:02:56.46,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and that kind of eat deeply\Ninto what we human beings
Dialogue: 0,0:02:56.49,0:02:57.77,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,do for a living.
Dialogue: 0,0:02:57.79,0:02:59.72,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Let me give you a couple examples.
Dialogue: 0,0:02:59.74,0:03:00.100,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Throughout all of history,
Dialogue: 0,0:03:01.02,0:03:04.57,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,if you wanted something translated\Nfrom one language into another,
Dialogue: 0,0:03:04.59,0:03:06.32,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,you had to involve a human being.
Dialogue: 0,0:03:06.67,0:03:09.80,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Now we have multi-language, instantaneous,
Dialogue: 0,0:03:09.82,0:03:14.24,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,automatic translation services\Navailable for free
Dialogue: 0,0:03:14.27,0:03:17.41,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,via many of our devices,\Nall the way down to smartphones.
Dialogue: 0,0:03:17.43,0:03:19.23,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And if any of us have used these,
Dialogue: 0,0:03:19.25,0:03:22.77,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,we know that they're not perfect,\Nbut they're decent.
Dialogue: 0,0:03:23.28,0:03:26.25,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Throughout all of history,\Nif you wanted something written,
Dialogue: 0,0:03:26.28,0:03:29.61,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,a report or an article,\Nyou had to involve a person.
Dialogue: 0,0:03:30.16,0:03:31.31,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Not anymore.
Dialogue: 0,0:03:31.34,0:03:34.31,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,This is an article that appeared\Nin Forbes online a while back,
Dialogue: 0,0:03:34.33,0:03:35.51,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,about Apple's earnings.
Dialogue: 0,0:03:35.53,0:03:37.15,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,It was written by an algorithm.
Dialogue: 0,0:03:37.72,0:03:40.58,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And it's not decent -- it's perfect.
Dialogue: 0,0:03:41.75,0:03:43.78,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,A lot of people look at this and they say,
Dialogue: 0,0:03:43.80,0:03:46.11,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,"OK, but those are very\Nspecific, narrow tasks,
Dialogue: 0,0:03:46.13,0:03:49.04,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and most knowledge workers\Nare actually generalists.
Dialogue: 0,0:03:49.07,0:03:53.26,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And what they do is sit on top of a very\Nlarge body of expertise and knowledge
Dialogue: 0,0:03:53.28,0:03:57.08,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and they use that to react on the fly\Nto kind of unpredictable demands,
Dialogue: 0,0:03:57.10,0:03:59.22,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and that's very, very hard to automate."
Dialogue: 0,0:03:59.80,0:04:02.71,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,One of the most impressive\Nknowledge workers in recent memory
Dialogue: 0,0:04:02.73,0:04:04.25,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,is a guy named Ken Jennings.
Dialogue: 0,0:04:04.28,0:04:09.01,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,He won the quiz show\N"Jeopardy!" 74 times in a row.
Dialogue: 0,0:04:09.61,0:04:11.80,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Took home three million dollars.
Dialogue: 0,0:04:11.82,0:04:15.60,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,That's Ken on the right,\Ngetting beat three-to-one
Dialogue: 0,0:04:15.62,0:04:19.100,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,by Watson, the Jeopardy-playing\Nsupercomputer from IBM.
Dialogue: 0,0:04:20.64,0:04:24.16,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So when we look at what technology can do\Nto general knowledge workers,
Dialogue: 0,0:04:24.18,0:04:27.26,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,I start to think there might not be\Nsomething so special
Dialogue: 0,0:04:27.28,0:04:29.05,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,about this idea of a generalist,
Dialogue: 0,0:04:29.08,0:04:33.40,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,particularly when we start doing things\Nlike hooking Siri up to Watson,
Dialogue: 0,0:04:33.43,0:04:36.70,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and having technologies\Nthat can understand what we're saying
Dialogue: 0,0:04:36.72,0:04:38.71,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and repeat speech back to us.
Dialogue: 0,0:04:38.73,0:04:42.63,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Now, Siri is far from perfect,\Nand we can make fun of her flaws,
Dialogue: 0,0:04:42.66,0:04:44.16,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,but we should also keep in mind
Dialogue: 0,0:04:44.18,0:04:49.54,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that if technologies like Siri and Watson\Nimprove along a Moore's law trajectory,
Dialogue: 0,0:04:49.57,0:04:51.09,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,which they will,
Dialogue: 0,0:04:51.11,0:04:54.70,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,in six years, they're not going to be two\Ntimes better or four times better,
Dialogue: 0,0:04:54.73,0:04:58.20,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,they'll be 16 times better\Nthan they are right now.
Dialogue: 0,0:04:58.22,0:05:02.07,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So I start to think a lot of knowledge\Nwork is going to be affected by this.
Dialogue: 0,0:05:02.09,0:05:05.83,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And digital technologies are not\Njust impacting knowledge work,
Dialogue: 0,0:05:05.85,0:05:09.59,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,they're starting to flex their muscles\Nin the physical world as well.
Dialogue: 0,0:05:09.62,0:05:13.34,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,I had the chance a little while back\Nto ride in the Google autonomous car,
Dialogue: 0,0:05:13.36,0:05:15.64,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,which is as cool as it sounds.
Dialogue: 0,0:05:15.66,0:05:17.85,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,(Laughter)
Dialogue: 0,0:05:17.88,0:05:22.30,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And I will vouch that it handled\Nthe stop-and-go traffic on US 101
Dialogue: 0,0:05:22.32,0:05:23.58,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,very smoothly.
Dialogue: 0,0:05:23.60,0:05:27.25,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,There are about three and a half million\Npeople who drive trucks for a living
Dialogue: 0,0:05:27.27,0:05:28.42,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,in the United States;
Dialogue: 0,0:05:28.45,0:05:31.52,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,I think some of them are going\Nto be affected by this technology.
Dialogue: 0,0:05:31.54,0:05:34.64,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And right now, humanoid robots\Nare still incredibly primitive.
Dialogue: 0,0:05:34.66,0:05:36.62,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,They can't do very much.
Dialogue: 0,0:05:36.65,0:05:38.62,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,But they're getting better quite quickly
Dialogue: 0,0:05:38.64,0:05:42.18,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and DARPA, which is the investment arm\Nof the Defense Department,
Dialogue: 0,0:05:42.20,0:05:44.18,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,is trying to accelerate their trajectory.
Dialogue: 0,0:05:44.20,0:05:48.65,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So, in short, yeah, the droids\Nare coming for our jobs.
Dialogue: 0,0:05:49.84,0:05:52.74,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,In the short term, we can\Nstimulate job growth
Dialogue: 0,0:05:52.76,0:05:54.90,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,by encouraging entrepreneurship
Dialogue: 0,0:05:54.92,0:05:56.84,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and by investing in infrastructure,
Dialogue: 0,0:05:56.86,0:06:00.40,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,because the robots today\Nstill aren't very good at fixing bridges.
Dialogue: 0,0:06:00.42,0:06:02.32,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,But in the not-too-long-term,
Dialogue: 0,0:06:02.34,0:06:06.25,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,I think within the lifetimes\Nof most of the people in this room,
Dialogue: 0,0:06:06.27,0:06:09.82,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,we're going to transition into an economy\Nthat is very productive,
Dialogue: 0,0:06:09.84,0:06:12.74,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,but that just doesn't need\Na lot of human workers.
Dialogue: 0,0:06:12.76,0:06:15.87,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And managing that transition\Nis going to be the greatest challenge
Dialogue: 0,0:06:15.90,0:06:17.43,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that our society faces.
Dialogue: 0,0:06:17.46,0:06:19.41,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Voltaire summarized why; he said,
Dialogue: 0,0:06:19.43,0:06:24.61,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,"Work saves us from three great evils:\Nboredom, vice and need."
Dialogue: 0,0:06:25.17,0:06:27.23,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,But despite this challenge --
Dialogue: 0,0:06:27.25,0:06:30.16,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,personally, I'm still\Na huge digital optimist,
Dialogue: 0,0:06:30.19,0:06:32.39,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and I am supremely confident
Dialogue: 0,0:06:32.42,0:06:35.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that the digital technologies\Nthat we're developing now
Dialogue: 0,0:06:35.03,0:06:37.68,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,are going to take us\Ninto a Utopian future,
Dialogue: 0,0:06:37.70,0:06:39.41,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,not a dystopian future.
Dialogue: 0,0:06:39.44,0:06:40.59,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And to explain why,
Dialogue: 0,0:06:40.61,0:06:43.19,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,I want to pose a ridiculously\Nbroad question.
Dialogue: 0,0:06:43.22,0:06:44.37,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,I want to ask:
Dialogue: 0,0:06:44.39,0:06:47.74,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,what have been the most important\Ndevelopments in human history?
Dialogue: 0,0:06:47.76,0:06:50.72,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Now, I want to share some\Nof the answers that I've gotten
Dialogue: 0,0:06:50.74,0:06:52.14,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,in response to this question.
Dialogue: 0,0:06:52.17,0:06:55.33,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,It's a wonderful question to ask\Nand start an endless debate about,
Dialogue: 0,0:06:55.36,0:06:57.33,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,because some people are going to bring up
Dialogue: 0,0:06:57.36,0:07:00.66,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,systems of philosophy\Nin both the West and the East
Dialogue: 0,0:07:00.68,0:07:03.90,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that have changed how a lot\Nof people think about the world.
Dialogue: 0,0:07:03.93,0:07:05.42,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And then other people will say,
Dialogue: 0,0:07:05.44,0:07:07.90,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,"No, actually, the big stories,\Nthe big developments
Dialogue: 0,0:07:07.93,0:07:10.51,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,are the founding\Nof the world's major religions,
Dialogue: 0,0:07:10.54,0:07:13.76,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,which have changed civilizations\Nand have changed and influenced
Dialogue: 0,0:07:13.79,0:07:16.38,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,how countless people\Nare living their lives."
Dialogue: 0,0:07:16.40,0:07:18.10,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And then some other folk will say,
Dialogue: 0,0:07:18.12,0:07:20.52,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,"Actually, what changes civilizations,
Dialogue: 0,0:07:20.54,0:07:25.32,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,what modifies them and what changes\Npeople's lives are empires,
Dialogue: 0,0:07:25.35,0:07:27.75,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,so the great developments in human history
Dialogue: 0,0:07:27.78,0:07:30.54,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,are stories of conquest and of war."
Dialogue: 0,0:07:30.56,0:07:33.34,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And then some cheery soul\Nusually always pipes up and says,
Dialogue: 0,0:07:33.37,0:07:35.05,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,"Hey, don't forget about plagues!"
Dialogue: 0,0:07:35.07,0:07:38.98,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,(Laughter)
Dialogue: 0,0:07:39.01,0:07:41.53,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,There are some optimistic\Nanswers to this question,
Dialogue: 0,0:07:41.55,0:07:43.97,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,so some people will bring up\Nthe Age of Exploration
Dialogue: 0,0:07:43.99,0:07:45.54,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and the opening up of the world.
Dialogue: 0,0:07:45.56,0:07:49.34,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Others will talk about intellectual\Nachievements in disciplines like math
Dialogue: 0,0:07:49.36,0:07:51.86,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that have helped us get\Na better handle on the world,
Dialogue: 0,0:07:51.88,0:07:55.32,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and other folk will talk about periods\Nwhen there was a deep flourishing
Dialogue: 0,0:07:55.34,0:07:56.95,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,of the arts and sciences.
Dialogue: 0,0:07:56.97,0:07:58.56,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So this debate will go on and on.
Dialogue: 0,0:07:58.58,0:08:00.05,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,It's an endless debate
Dialogue: 0,0:08:00.07,0:08:03.30,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and there's no conclusive,\Nsingle answer to it.
Dialogue: 0,0:08:03.33,0:08:04.84,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,But if you're a geek like me,
Dialogue: 0,0:08:04.87,0:08:07.55,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,you say, "Well, what do the data say?"
Dialogue: 0,0:08:07.57,0:08:08.90,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And you start to do things
Dialogue: 0,0:08:08.93,0:08:11.61,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,like graph things\Nthat we might be interested in --
Dialogue: 0,0:08:11.64,0:08:14.72,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,the total worldwide\Npopulation, for example,
Dialogue: 0,0:08:14.74,0:08:17.10,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,or some measure of social development
Dialogue: 0,0:08:17.13,0:08:19.62,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,or the state of advancement of a society.
Dialogue: 0,0:08:19.64,0:08:23.76,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And you start to plot the data,\Nbecause, by this approach,
Dialogue: 0,0:08:23.79,0:08:26.39,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,the big stories, the big\Ndevelopments in human history,
Dialogue: 0,0:08:26.42,0:08:28.93,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,are the ones that will bend\Nthese curves a lot.
Dialogue: 0,0:08:28.95,0:08:31.17,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So when you do this\Nand when you plot the data,
Dialogue: 0,0:08:31.20,0:08:33.89,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,you pretty quickly come\Nto some weird conclusions.
Dialogue: 0,0:08:33.91,0:08:35.31,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,You conclude, actually,
Dialogue: 0,0:08:35.33,0:08:37.89,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that none of these things\Nhave mattered very much.
Dialogue: 0,0:08:37.92,0:08:41.51,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,(Laughter)
Dialogue: 0,0:08:41.98,0:08:45.33,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,They haven't done\Na darn thing to the curves.
Dialogue: 0,0:08:45.36,0:08:50.05,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,There has been one story,\None development in human history
Dialogue: 0,0:08:50.07,0:08:53.28,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that bent the curve,\Nbent it just about 90 degrees,
Dialogue: 0,0:08:53.30,0:08:55.44,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and it is a technology story.
Dialogue: 0,0:08:55.96,0:08:58.73,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,The steam engine and the other\Nassociated technologies
Dialogue: 0,0:08:58.76,0:09:00.79,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,of the Industrial Revolution
Dialogue: 0,0:09:00.81,0:09:04.09,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,changed the world and influenced\Nhuman history so much,
Dialogue: 0,0:09:04.11,0:09:06.51,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that in the words\Nof the historian Ian Morris,
Dialogue: 0,0:09:06.54,0:09:10.33,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,"... they made mockery out of all\Nthat had come before."
Dialogue: 0,0:09:10.35,0:09:13.88,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And they did this by infinitely\Nmultiplying the power of our muscles,
Dialogue: 0,0:09:13.90,0:09:16.30,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,overcoming the limitations of our muscles.
Dialogue: 0,0:09:16.32,0:09:18.82,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Now, what we're in the middle of now
Dialogue: 0,0:09:18.84,0:09:21.88,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,is overcoming the limitations\Nof our individual brains
Dialogue: 0,0:09:21.90,0:09:24.81,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and infinitely multiplying\Nour mental power.
Dialogue: 0,0:09:24.84,0:09:28.01,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,How can this not be as big a deal
Dialogue: 0,0:09:28.04,0:09:30.74,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,as overcoming the limitations\Nof our muscles?
Dialogue: 0,0:09:30.76,0:09:33.62,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So at the risk of repeating\Nmyself a little bit,
Dialogue: 0,0:09:33.65,0:09:37.40,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,when I look at what's going on\Nwith digital technology these days,
Dialogue: 0,0:09:37.43,0:09:40.54,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,we are not anywhere near\Nthrough with this journey.
Dialogue: 0,0:09:40.56,0:09:44.07,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And when I look at what is happening\Nto our economies and our societies,
Dialogue: 0,0:09:44.09,0:09:47.18,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,my single conclusion is that\Nwe ain't seen nothing yet.
Dialogue: 0,0:09:47.20,0:09:48.93,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,The best days are really ahead.
Dialogue: 0,0:09:48.95,0:09:50.95,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Let me give you a couple examples.
Dialogue: 0,0:09:50.98,0:09:53.35,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Economies don't run on energy.
Dialogue: 0,0:09:53.38,0:09:56.41,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,They don't run on capital,\Nthey don't run on labor.
Dialogue: 0,0:09:56.44,0:09:58.84,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Economies run on ideas.
Dialogue: 0,0:09:58.87,0:10:02.21,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So the work of innovation,\Nthe work of coming up with new ideas,
Dialogue: 0,0:10:02.23,0:10:05.93,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,is some of the most powerful, most\Nfundamental work that we can do
Dialogue: 0,0:10:05.95,0:10:07.10,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,in an economy.
Dialogue: 0,0:10:07.13,0:10:10.25,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And this is kind of how\Nwe used to do innovation.
Dialogue: 0,0:10:10.27,0:10:13.25,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,We'd find a bunch of fairly\Nsimilar-looking people ...
Dialogue: 0,0:10:13.27,0:10:16.77,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,(Laughter)
Dialogue: 0,0:10:16.79,0:10:18.78,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,We'd take them out of elite institutions,
Dialogue: 0,0:10:18.81,0:10:20.89,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,we'd put them into other\Nelite institutions
Dialogue: 0,0:10:20.91,0:10:22.50,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and we'd wait for the innovation.
Dialogue: 0,0:10:22.52,0:10:23.69,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Now --
Dialogue: 0,0:10:23.71,0:10:26.14,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,(Laughter)
Dialogue: 0,0:10:26.17,0:10:29.66,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,as a white guy who spent\Nhis whole career at MIT and Harvard,
Dialogue: 0,0:10:29.68,0:10:31.70,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,I've got no problem with this.
Dialogue: 0,0:10:31.73,0:10:34.03,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,(Laughter)
Dialogue: 0,0:10:35.34,0:10:36.55,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,But some other people do,
Dialogue: 0,0:10:36.58,0:10:38.36,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and they've kind of crashed the party
Dialogue: 0,0:10:38.38,0:10:40.53,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and loosened up\Nthe dress code of innovation.
Dialogue: 0,0:10:40.55,0:10:41.59,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,(Laughter)
Dialogue: 0,0:10:41.61,0:10:44.81,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So here are the winners of a Topcoder\Nprogramming challenge,
Dialogue: 0,0:10:44.83,0:10:47.53,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and I assure you that nobody cares
Dialogue: 0,0:10:47.55,0:10:51.31,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,where these kids grew up,\Nwhere they went to school,
Dialogue: 0,0:10:51.33,0:10:52.83,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,or what they look like.
Dialogue: 0,0:10:52.85,0:10:56.70,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,All anyone cares about is the quality\Nof the work, the quality of the ideas.
Dialogue: 0,0:10:56.72,0:10:58.96,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And over and over again,\Nwe see this happening
Dialogue: 0,0:10:58.98,0:11:01.50,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,in the technology-facilitated world.
Dialogue: 0,0:11:01.53,0:11:04.03,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,The work of innovation\Nis becoming more open,
Dialogue: 0,0:11:04.05,0:11:07.70,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,more inclusive, more transparent\Nand more merit-based,
Dialogue: 0,0:11:07.72,0:11:11.42,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and that's going to continue no matter\Nwhat MIT and Harvard think of it,
Dialogue: 0,0:11:11.44,0:11:14.01,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and I couldn't be happier\Nabout that development.
Dialogue: 0,0:11:14.35,0:11:16.80,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,I hear once in a while,\N"OK, I'll grant you that,
Dialogue: 0,0:11:16.83,0:11:19.85,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,but technology is still a tool\Nfor the rich world,
Dialogue: 0,0:11:19.87,0:11:21.27,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and what's not happening,
Dialogue: 0,0:11:21.29,0:11:23.90,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,these digital tools are not\Nimproving the lives
Dialogue: 0,0:11:23.93,0:11:26.08,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,of people at the bottom of the pyramid."
Dialogue: 0,0:11:26.10,0:11:28.77,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And I want to say to that\Nvery clearly: nonsense.
Dialogue: 0,0:11:28.79,0:11:32.28,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,The bottom of the pyramid is benefiting\Nhugely from technology.
Dialogue: 0,0:11:32.31,0:11:35.87,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,The economist Robert Jensen\Ndid this wonderful study a while back
Dialogue: 0,0:11:35.89,0:11:37.83,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,where he watched, in great detail,
Dialogue: 0,0:11:37.85,0:11:41.47,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,what happened to the fishing\Nvillages of Kerala, India,
Dialogue: 0,0:11:41.49,0:11:44.37,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,when they got mobile phones\Nfor the very first time.
Dialogue: 0,0:11:44.40,0:11:47.21,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And when you write for the Quarterly\NJournal of Economics,
Dialogue: 0,0:11:47.23,0:11:50.11,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,you have to use very dry\Nand very circumspect language.
Dialogue: 0,0:11:50.14,0:11:51.40,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,But when I read his paper,
Dialogue: 0,0:11:51.42,0:11:53.63,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,I kind of feel Jensen\Nis trying to scream at us
Dialogue: 0,0:11:53.65,0:11:55.98,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and say, "Look, this was a big deal.
Dialogue: 0,0:11:56.00,0:11:59.65,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Prices stabilized, so people\Ncould plan their economic lives.
Dialogue: 0,0:11:59.68,0:12:03.35,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Waste was not reduced --\Nit was eliminated.
Dialogue: 0,0:12:03.75,0:12:05.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And the lives of both\Nthe buyers and the sellers
Dialogue: 0,0:12:06.01,0:12:08.49,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,in these villages measurably improved."
Dialogue: 0,0:12:08.81,0:12:12.60,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Now, what I don't think\Nis that Jensen got extremely lucky
Dialogue: 0,0:12:12.63,0:12:14.84,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and happened to land\Nin the one set of villages
Dialogue: 0,0:12:14.86,0:12:17.17,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,where technology made things better.
Dialogue: 0,0:12:17.20,0:12:19.84,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,What happened instead\Nis he very carefully documented
Dialogue: 0,0:12:19.87,0:12:23.94,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,what happens over and over again\Nwhen technology comes for the first time
Dialogue: 0,0:12:23.97,0:12:25.91,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,to an environment and a community:
Dialogue: 0,0:12:25.93,0:12:29.77,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,the lives of people, the welfares\Nof people, improve dramatically.
Dialogue: 0,0:12:29.79,0:12:31.67,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So as I look around at all the evidence
Dialogue: 0,0:12:31.70,0:12:34.13,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and I think about the room\Nthat we have ahead of us,
Dialogue: 0,0:12:34.16,0:12:35.98,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,I become a huge digital optimist
Dialogue: 0,0:12:36.01,0:12:40.58,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and I start to think that this wonderful\Nstatement from the physicist Freeman Dyson
Dialogue: 0,0:12:40.61,0:12:42.35,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,is actually not hyperbole.
Dialogue: 0,0:12:42.37,0:12:44.88,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,This is an accurate assessment\Nof what's going on.
Dialogue: 0,0:12:44.90,0:12:47.60,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Our technologies are great gifts,
Dialogue: 0,0:12:47.63,0:12:50.67,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and we, right now,\Nhave the great good fortune
Dialogue: 0,0:12:50.70,0:12:54.43,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,to be living at a time when\Ndigital technology is flourishing,
Dialogue: 0,0:12:54.45,0:12:57.85,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,when it is broadening and deepening\Nand becoming more profound
Dialogue: 0,0:12:57.87,0:12:59.15,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,all around the world.
Dialogue: 0,0:12:59.17,0:13:02.45,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So, yeah, the droids are taking our jobs,
Dialogue: 0,0:13:02.47,0:13:06.04,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,but focusing on that fact\Nmisses the point entirely.
Dialogue: 0,0:13:06.07,0:13:09.57,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,The point is that then we\Nare freed up to do other things,
Dialogue: 0,0:13:09.59,0:13:11.88,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and what we're going to do,\NI am very confident,
Dialogue: 0,0:13:11.90,0:13:14.42,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,what we're going to do is reduce poverty
Dialogue: 0,0:13:14.44,0:13:16.91,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and drudgery and misery around the world.
Dialogue: 0,0:13:16.93,0:13:20.94,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,I'm very confident we're going to learn\Nto live more lightly on the planet,
Dialogue: 0,0:13:20.96,0:13:24.39,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and I am extremely confident\Nthat what we're going to do
Dialogue: 0,0:13:24.41,0:13:25.79,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,with our new digital tools
Dialogue: 0,0:13:25.81,0:13:28.80,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,is going to be so profound\Nand so beneficial
Dialogue: 0,0:13:28.83,0:13:32.31,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that it's going to make a mockery\Nout of everything that came before.
Dialogue: 0,0:13:32.34,0:13:33.89,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,I'm going to leave the last word
Dialogue: 0,0:13:33.92,0:13:36.57,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,to a guy who had a front-row seat\Nfor digital progress,
Dialogue: 0,0:13:36.59,0:13:38.16,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,our old friend Ken Jennings.
Dialogue: 0,0:13:38.19,0:13:40.43,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,I'm with him; I'm going to echo his words:
Dialogue: 0,0:13:40.46,0:13:43.37,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,"I, for one, welcome our new\Ncomputer overlords."
Dialogue: 0,0:13:43.40,0:13:44.48,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,(Laughter)
Dialogue: 0,0:13:44.50,0:13:45.98,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Thanks very much.
Dialogue: 0,0:13:46.01,0:13:47.17,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,(Applause)