[Script Info]
Title: 
[Events]
Format: Layer, Start, End, Style, Name, MarginL, MarginR, MarginV, Effect, Text
Dialogue: 0,0:00:00.52,0:00:03.27,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,As it turns out, when tens of millions of people
Dialogue: 0,0:00:03.27,0:00:05.60,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,are unemployed or underemployed,
Dialogue: 0,0:00:05.60,0:00:09.73,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,there's a fair amount of interest in what technology might be doing to the labor force.
Dialogue: 0,0:00:09.73,0:00:12.44,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And as I look at the conversation, it strikes me
Dialogue: 0,0:00:12.44,0:00:15.40,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that it's focused on exactly the right topic,
Dialogue: 0,0:00:15.40,0:00:18.38,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and at the same time, it's missing the point entirely.
Dialogue: 0,0:00:18.38,0:00:21.38,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,The topic that it's focused on, the question is whether or not
Dialogue: 0,0:00:21.38,0:00:25.04,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,all these digital technologies are affecting people's ability
Dialogue: 0,0:00:25.04,0:00:28.06,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,to earn a living, or, to say it a little bit different way,
Dialogue: 0,0:00:28.06,0:00:30.34,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,are the droids taking our jobs?
Dialogue: 0,0:00:30.34,0:00:32.30,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And there's some evidence that they are.
Dialogue: 0,0:00:32.30,0:00:36.66,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,The Great Recession ended when American GDP resumed
Dialogue: 0,0:00:36.66,0:00:40.09,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,its kind of slow, steady march upward, and some other
Dialogue: 0,0:00:40.10,0:00:43.04,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,economic indicators also started to rebound, and they got
Dialogue: 0,0:00:43.04,0:00:45.90,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,kind of healthy kind of quickly. Corporate profits
Dialogue: 0,0:00:45.90,0:00:49.17,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,are quite high. In fact, if you include bank profits,
Dialogue: 0,0:00:49.17,0:00:51.28,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,they're higher than they've ever been.
Dialogue: 0,0:00:51.28,0:00:54.56,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And business investment in gear, in equipment
Dialogue: 0,0:00:54.56,0:00:57.66,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and hardware and software is at an all-time high.
Dialogue: 0,0:00:57.66,0:01:01.04,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So the businesses are getting out their checkbooks.
Dialogue: 0,0:01:01.04,0:01:03.31,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,What they're not really doing is hiring.
Dialogue: 0,0:01:03.31,0:01:07.01,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So this red line is the employment-to-population ratio,
Dialogue: 0,0:01:07.01,0:01:10.39,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,in other words, the percentage of working age people
Dialogue: 0,0:01:10.39,0:01:12.28,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,in America who have work.
Dialogue: 0,0:01:12.28,0:01:15.98,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And we see that it cratered during the Great Recession,
Dialogue: 0,0:01:15.98,0:01:18.84,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and it hasn't started to bounce back at all.
Dialogue: 0,0:01:18.84,0:01:21.35,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,But the story is not just a recession story.
Dialogue: 0,0:01:21.35,0:01:24.35,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,The decade that we've just been through had relatively
Dialogue: 0,0:01:24.35,0:01:27.74,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,anemic job growth all throughout, especially when we
Dialogue: 0,0:01:27.74,0:01:30.68,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,compare it to other decades, and the 2000s
Dialogue: 0,0:01:30.68,0:01:32.96,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,are the only time we have on record where there were
Dialogue: 0,0:01:32.96,0:01:36.17,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,fewer people working at the end of the decade
Dialogue: 0,0:01:36.17,0:01:39.23,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,than at the beginning. This is not what you want to see.
Dialogue: 0,0:01:39.23,0:01:42.87,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,When you graph the number of potential employees
Dialogue: 0,0:01:42.87,0:01:46.47,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,versus the number of jobs in the country, you see the gap
Dialogue: 0,0:01:46.47,0:01:50.05,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,gets bigger and bigger over time, and then,
Dialogue: 0,0:01:50.05,0:01:52.45,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,during the Great Recession, it opened up in a huge way.
Dialogue: 0,0:01:52.45,0:01:56.86,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,I did some quick calculations. I took the last 20 years of GDP growth
Dialogue: 0,0:01:56.86,0:02:00.16,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and the last 20 years of labor productivity growth
Dialogue: 0,0:02:00.16,0:02:02.90,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and used those in a fairly straightforward way
Dialogue: 0,0:02:02.90,0:02:05.52,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,to try to project how many jobs the economy was going
Dialogue: 0,0:02:05.52,0:02:09.18,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,to need to keep growing, and this is the line that I came up with.
Dialogue: 0,0:02:09.18,0:02:12.63,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Is that good or bad? This is the government's projection
Dialogue: 0,0:02:12.63,0:02:16.48,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,for the working age population going forward.
Dialogue: 0,0:02:16.48,0:02:21.25,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So if these predictions are accurate, that gap is not going to close.
Dialogue: 0,0:02:21.25,0:02:24.65,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,The problem is, I don't think these projections are accurate.
Dialogue: 0,0:02:24.65,0:02:28.01,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,In particular, I think my projection is way too optimistic,
Dialogue: 0,0:02:28.01,0:02:31.36,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,because when I did it, I was assuming that the future
Dialogue: 0,0:02:31.36,0:02:33.81,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,was kind of going to look like the past
Dialogue: 0,0:02:33.81,0:02:37.25,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,with labor productivity growth, and that's actually not what I believe,
Dialogue: 0,0:02:37.25,0:02:41.01,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,because when I look around, I think that we ain't seen nothing yet
Dialogue: 0,0:02:41.01,0:02:44.30,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,when it comes to technology's impact on the labor force.
Dialogue: 0,0:02:44.30,0:02:48.29,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Just in the past couple years, we've seen digital tools
Dialogue: 0,0:02:48.29,0:02:52.70,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,display skills and abilities that they never, ever had before,
Dialogue: 0,0:02:52.70,0:02:56.49,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and that, kind of, eat deeply into what we human beings
Dialogue: 0,0:02:56.49,0:02:59.74,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,do for a living. Let me give you a couple examples.
Dialogue: 0,0:02:59.74,0:03:01.76,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Throughout all of history, if you wanted something
Dialogue: 0,0:03:01.76,0:03:04.68,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,translated from one language into another,
Dialogue: 0,0:03:04.68,0:03:06.34,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,you had to involve a human being.
Dialogue: 0,0:03:06.34,0:03:09.76,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Now we have multi-language, instantaneous,
Dialogue: 0,0:03:09.76,0:03:13.98,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,automatic translation services available for free
Dialogue: 0,0:03:13.98,0:03:17.37,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,via many of our devices all the way down to smartphones.
Dialogue: 0,0:03:17.37,0:03:19.75,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And if any of us have used these, we know that
Dialogue: 0,0:03:19.75,0:03:23.07,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,they're not perfect, but they're decent.
Dialogue: 0,0:03:23.07,0:03:26.22,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Throughout all of history, if you wanted something written,
Dialogue: 0,0:03:26.22,0:03:29.64,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,a report or an article, you had to involve a person.
Dialogue: 0,0:03:29.64,0:03:31.89,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Not anymore. This is an article that appeared
Dialogue: 0,0:03:31.89,0:03:35.12,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,in Forbes online a while back about Apple's earnings.
Dialogue: 0,0:03:35.12,0:03:37.65,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,It was written by an algorithm.
Dialogue: 0,0:03:37.65,0:03:40.90,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And it's not decent, it's perfect.
Dialogue: 0,0:03:40.90,0:03:43.86,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,A lot of people look at this and they say, "Okay,
Dialogue: 0,0:03:43.86,0:03:46.21,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,but those are very specific, narrow tasks,
Dialogue: 0,0:03:46.21,0:03:48.84,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and most knowledge workers are actually generalists,
Dialogue: 0,0:03:48.84,0:03:51.37,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and what they do is sit on top of a very large body
Dialogue: 0,0:03:51.37,0:03:54.03,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,of expertise and knowledge and they use that
Dialogue: 0,0:03:54.03,0:03:57.10,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,to react on the fly to kind of unpredictable demands,
Dialogue: 0,0:03:57.10,0:03:59.59,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and that's very, very hard to automate."
Dialogue: 0,0:03:59.59,0:04:01.57,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,One of the most impressive knowledge workers
Dialogue: 0,0:04:01.57,0:04:03.98,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,in recent memory is a guy named Ken Jennings.
Dialogue: 0,0:04:03.98,0:04:09.04,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,He won the quiz show "Jeopardy!" 74 times in a row,
Dialogue: 0,0:04:09.04,0:04:11.66,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,took home three million dollars.
Dialogue: 0,0:04:11.66,0:04:15.51,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,That's Ken on the right getting beat three to one by
Dialogue: 0,0:04:15.51,0:04:20.32,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Watson, the "Jeopardy!"-playing supercomputer from IBM.
Dialogue: 0,0:04:20.32,0:04:22.18,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So when we look at what technology can do
Dialogue: 0,0:04:22.18,0:04:25.05,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,to general knowledge workers, I start to think
Dialogue: 0,0:04:25.05,0:04:27.65,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,there might not be something so special about this idea
Dialogue: 0,0:04:27.65,0:04:30.54,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,of a generalist, particularly when we start doing things
Dialogue: 0,0:04:30.54,0:04:34.53,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,like hooking Siri up to Watson and having technologies
Dialogue: 0,0:04:34.53,0:04:36.42,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that can understand what we're saying
Dialogue: 0,0:04:36.42,0:04:38.51,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and repeat speech back to us.
Dialogue: 0,0:04:38.51,0:04:41.34,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Now, Siri is far from perfect, and we can make fun
Dialogue: 0,0:04:41.34,0:04:44.36,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,of her flaws, but we should also keep in mind that
Dialogue: 0,0:04:44.36,0:04:47.04,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,if technologies like Siri and Watson improve
Dialogue: 0,0:04:47.04,0:04:50.82,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,along a Moore's Law trajectory, which they will,
Dialogue: 0,0:04:50.82,0:04:53.40,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,in six years, they're not going to be two times better
Dialogue: 0,0:04:53.40,0:04:58.22,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,or four times better, they'll be 16 times better than they are right now.
Dialogue: 0,0:04:58.22,0:05:01.90,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So I start to think that a lot of knowledge work is going to be affected by this.
Dialogue: 0,0:05:01.90,0:05:05.46,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And digital technologies are not just impacting knowledge work.
Dialogue: 0,0:05:05.46,0:05:09.45,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,They're starting to flex their muscles in the physical world as well.
Dialogue: 0,0:05:09.45,0:05:11.90,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,I had the chance a little while back to ride in the Google
Dialogue: 0,0:05:11.90,0:05:17.43,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,autonomous car, which is as cool as it sounds. (Laughter)
Dialogue: 0,0:05:17.43,0:05:20.45,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And I will vouch that it handled the stop-and-go traffic
Dialogue: 0,0:05:20.45,0:05:23.36,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,on U.S. 101 very smoothly.
Dialogue: 0,0:05:23.36,0:05:25.32,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,There are about three and a half million people
Dialogue: 0,0:05:25.32,0:05:27.53,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,who drive trucks for a living in the United States.
Dialogue: 0,0:05:27.53,0:05:29.96,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,I think some of them are going to be affected by this
Dialogue: 0,0:05:29.96,0:05:33.21,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,technology. And right now, humanoid robots are still
Dialogue: 0,0:05:33.21,0:05:36.47,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,incredibly primitive. They can't do very much.
Dialogue: 0,0:05:36.47,0:05:39.05,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,But they're getting better quite quickly, and DARPA,
Dialogue: 0,0:05:39.05,0:05:42.20,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,which is the investment arm of the Defense Department,
Dialogue: 0,0:05:42.20,0:05:43.87,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,is trying to accelerate their trajectory.
Dialogue: 0,0:05:43.87,0:05:48.55,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So, in short, yeah, the droids are coming for our jobs.
Dialogue: 0,0:05:48.55,0:05:52.43,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,In the short term, we can stimulate job growth
Dialogue: 0,0:05:52.43,0:05:55.38,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,by encouraging entrepreneurship and by investing
Dialogue: 0,0:05:55.38,0:05:58.42,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,in infrastructure, because the robots today still aren't
Dialogue: 0,0:05:58.42,0:06:00.16,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,very good at fixing bridges.
Dialogue: 0,0:06:00.16,0:06:03.53,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,But in the not-too-long-term, I think within the lifetimes
Dialogue: 0,0:06:03.53,0:06:07.10,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,of most of the people in this room, we're going to transition
Dialogue: 0,0:06:07.10,0:06:10.03,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,into an economy that is very productive but that
Dialogue: 0,0:06:10.03,0:06:12.84,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,just doesn't need a lot of human workers,
Dialogue: 0,0:06:12.84,0:06:14.39,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and managing that transition is going to be
Dialogue: 0,0:06:14.39,0:06:17.13,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,the greatest challenge that our society faces.
Dialogue: 0,0:06:17.13,0:06:19.89,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Voltaire summarized why. He said, "Work saves us
Dialogue: 0,0:06:19.89,0:06:25.17,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,from three great evils: boredom, vice and need."
Dialogue: 0,0:06:25.17,0:06:27.74,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,But despite this challenge, I'm personally,
Dialogue: 0,0:06:27.74,0:06:30.79,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,I'm still a huge digital optimist, and I am
Dialogue: 0,0:06:30.79,0:06:33.98,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,supremely confident that the digital technologies that we're
Dialogue: 0,0:06:33.98,0:06:37.53,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,developing now are going to take us into a utopian future,
Dialogue: 0,0:06:37.53,0:06:40.57,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,not a dystopian future. And to explain why,
Dialogue: 0,0:06:40.57,0:06:43.09,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,I want to pose kind of a ridiculously broad question.
Dialogue: 0,0:06:43.09,0:06:45.44,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,I want to ask what have been the most important
Dialogue: 0,0:06:45.44,0:06:47.76,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,developments in human history?
Dialogue: 0,0:06:47.76,0:06:50.49,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Now, I want to share some of the answers that I've gotten
Dialogue: 0,0:06:50.49,0:06:52.67,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,in response to this question. It's a wonderful question
Dialogue: 0,0:06:52.67,0:06:54.84,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,to ask and to start an endless debate about,
Dialogue: 0,0:06:54.84,0:06:57.16,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,because some people are going to bring up
Dialogue: 0,0:06:57.16,0:07:00.62,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,systems of philosophy in both the West and the East that
Dialogue: 0,0:07:00.62,0:07:03.75,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,have changed how a lot of people think about the world.
Dialogue: 0,0:07:03.75,0:07:06.59,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And then other people will say, "No, actually, the big stories,
Dialogue: 0,0:07:06.59,0:07:09.01,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,the big developments are the founding of the world's
Dialogue: 0,0:07:09.01,0:07:12.29,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,major religions, which have changed civilizations
Dialogue: 0,0:07:12.29,0:07:14.93,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and have changed and influenced how countless people
Dialogue: 0,0:07:14.93,0:07:17.94,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,are living their lives." And then some other folk will say,
Dialogue: 0,0:07:17.94,0:07:21.46,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,"Actually, what changes civilizations, what modifies them
Dialogue: 0,0:07:21.46,0:07:23.63,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and what changes people's lives
Dialogue: 0,0:07:23.63,0:07:27.54,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,are empires, so the great developments in human history
Dialogue: 0,0:07:27.54,0:07:30.37,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,are stories of conquest and of war."
Dialogue: 0,0:07:30.37,0:07:32.96,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And then some cheery soul usually always pipes up
Dialogue: 0,0:07:32.96,0:07:38.65,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and says, "Hey, don't forget about plagues." (Laughter)
Dialogue: 0,0:07:38.65,0:07:41.55,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,There are some optimistic answers to this question,
Dialogue: 0,0:07:41.55,0:07:43.45,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,so some people will bring up the Age of Exploration
Dialogue: 0,0:07:43.45,0:07:45.40,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and the opening up of the world.
Dialogue: 0,0:07:45.40,0:07:47.50,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Others will talk about intellectual achievements
Dialogue: 0,0:07:47.50,0:07:49.78,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,in disciplines like math that have helped us get
Dialogue: 0,0:07:49.78,0:07:53.09,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,a better handle on the world, and other folk will talk about
Dialogue: 0,0:07:53.09,0:07:54.78,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,periods when there was a deep flourishing
Dialogue: 0,0:07:54.78,0:07:58.58,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,of the arts and sciences. So this debate will go on and on.
Dialogue: 0,0:07:58.58,0:08:01.42,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,It's an endless debate, and there's no conclusive,
Dialogue: 0,0:08:01.42,0:08:04.68,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,no single answer to it. But if you're a geek like me,
Dialogue: 0,0:08:04.68,0:08:07.57,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,you say, "Well, what do the data say?"
Dialogue: 0,0:08:07.57,0:08:10.38,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And you start to do things like graph things that we might
Dialogue: 0,0:08:10.38,0:08:14.49,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,be interested in, the total worldwide population, for example,
Dialogue: 0,0:08:14.49,0:08:17.13,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,or some measure of social development,
Dialogue: 0,0:08:17.13,0:08:19.64,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,or the state of advancement of a society,
Dialogue: 0,0:08:19.64,0:08:23.47,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and you start to plot the data, because, by this approach,
Dialogue: 0,0:08:23.47,0:08:26.09,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,the big stories, the big developments in human history,
Dialogue: 0,0:08:26.09,0:08:28.95,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,are the ones that will bend these curves a lot.
Dialogue: 0,0:08:28.95,0:08:30.86,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So when you do this, and when you plot the data,
Dialogue: 0,0:08:30.86,0:08:33.66,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,you pretty quickly come to some weird conclusions.
Dialogue: 0,0:08:33.66,0:08:36.58,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,You conclude, actually, that none of these things
Dialogue: 0,0:08:36.58,0:08:41.54,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,have mattered very much. (Laughter)
Dialogue: 0,0:08:41.54,0:08:45.56,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,They haven't done a darn thing to the curves. (Laughter)
Dialogue: 0,0:08:45.56,0:08:49.15,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,There has been one story, one development
Dialogue: 0,0:08:49.15,0:08:51.75,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,in human history that bent the curve, bent it just about
Dialogue: 0,0:08:51.75,0:08:55.80,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,90 degrees, and it is a technology story.
Dialogue: 0,0:08:55.80,0:08:58.76,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,The steam engine, and the other associated technologies
Dialogue: 0,0:08:58.76,0:09:01.69,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,of the Industrial Revolution changed the world
Dialogue: 0,0:09:01.69,0:09:04.11,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and influenced human history so much,
Dialogue: 0,0:09:04.11,0:09:06.20,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that in the words of the historian Ian Morris,
Dialogue: 0,0:09:06.20,0:09:10.27,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,they made mockery out of all that had come before.
Dialogue: 0,0:09:10.27,0:09:13.18,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And they did this by infinitely multiplying the power
Dialogue: 0,0:09:13.18,0:09:16.32,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,of our muscles, overcoming the limitations of our muscles.
Dialogue: 0,0:09:16.32,0:09:18.84,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Now, what we're in the middle of now
Dialogue: 0,0:09:18.84,0:09:21.76,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,is overcoming the limitations of our individual brains
Dialogue: 0,0:09:21.76,0:09:24.84,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and infinitely multiplying our mental power.
Dialogue: 0,0:09:24.84,0:09:28.54,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,How can this not be as big a deal as overcoming
Dialogue: 0,0:09:28.54,0:09:31.06,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,the limitations of our muscles?
Dialogue: 0,0:09:31.06,0:09:34.44,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So at the risk of repeating myself a little bit, when I look
Dialogue: 0,0:09:34.44,0:09:37.27,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,at what's going on with digital technology these days,
Dialogue: 0,0:09:37.27,0:09:40.10,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,we are not anywhere near through with this journey,
Dialogue: 0,0:09:40.10,0:09:42.77,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and when I look at what is happening to our economies
Dialogue: 0,0:09:42.77,0:09:45.42,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and our societies, my single conclusion is that
Dialogue: 0,0:09:45.42,0:09:48.95,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,we ain't seen nothing yet. The best days are really ahead.
Dialogue: 0,0:09:48.95,0:09:50.71,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Let me give you a couple examples.
Dialogue: 0,0:09:50.71,0:09:54.94,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Economies don't run on energy. They don't run on capital,
Dialogue: 0,0:09:54.94,0:09:58.72,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,they don't run on labor. Economies run on ideas.
Dialogue: 0,0:09:58.72,0:10:01.24,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So the work of innovation, the work of coming up with
Dialogue: 0,0:10:01.24,0:10:03.66,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,new ideas, is some of the most powerful,
Dialogue: 0,0:10:03.66,0:10:05.48,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,some of the most fundamental work that we can do
Dialogue: 0,0:10:05.48,0:10:09.49,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,in an economy. And this is kind of how we used to do innovation.
Dialogue: 0,0:10:09.49,0:10:13.27,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,We'd find a bunch of fairly similar-looking people
Dialogue: 0,0:10:13.27,0:10:16.68,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,— (Laughter) —
Dialogue: 0,0:10:16.68,0:10:19.21,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,we'd take them out of elite institutions, we'd put them into
Dialogue: 0,0:10:19.21,0:10:22.16,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,other elite institutions, and we'd wait for the innovation.
Dialogue: 0,0:10:22.16,0:10:26.17,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Now — (Laughter) —
Dialogue: 0,0:10:26.17,0:10:28.75,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,as a white guy who spent his whole career at MIT
Dialogue: 0,0:10:28.75,0:10:35.11,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and Harvard, I got no problem with this. (Laughter)
Dialogue: 0,0:10:35.11,0:10:37.73,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,But some other people do, and they've kind of crashed
Dialogue: 0,0:10:37.73,0:10:40.27,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,the party and loosened up the dress code of innovation.
Dialogue: 0,0:10:40.27,0:10:41.19,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,(Laughter)
Dialogue: 0,0:10:41.19,0:10:44.83,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So here are the winners of a Top Coder programming challenge,
Dialogue: 0,0:10:44.83,0:10:47.74,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and I assure you that nobody cares
Dialogue: 0,0:10:47.74,0:10:51.33,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,where these kids grew up, where they went to school,
Dialogue: 0,0:10:51.33,0:10:53.82,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,or what they look like. All anyone cares about
Dialogue: 0,0:10:53.82,0:10:56.64,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,is the quality of the work, the quality of the ideas.
Dialogue: 0,0:10:56.64,0:10:58.80,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And over and over again, we see this happening
Dialogue: 0,0:10:58.80,0:11:01.15,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,in the technology-facilitated world.
Dialogue: 0,0:11:01.15,0:11:03.61,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,The work of innovation is becoming more open,
Dialogue: 0,0:11:03.61,0:11:07.38,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,more inclusive, more transparent, and more merit-based,
Dialogue: 0,0:11:07.38,0:11:10.35,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and that's going to continue no matter what MIT and Harvard
Dialogue: 0,0:11:10.35,0:11:14.03,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,think of it, and I couldn't be happier about that development.
Dialogue: 0,0:11:14.03,0:11:16.48,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,I hear once in a while, "Okay, I'll grant you that,
Dialogue: 0,0:11:16.48,0:11:19.87,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,but technology is still a tool for the rich world,
Dialogue: 0,0:11:19.87,0:11:22.58,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and what's not happening, these digital tools are not
Dialogue: 0,0:11:22.58,0:11:25.94,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,improving the lives of people at the bottom of the pyramid."
Dialogue: 0,0:11:25.94,0:11:28.60,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And I want to say to that very clearly: nonsense.
Dialogue: 0,0:11:28.60,0:11:32.04,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,The bottom of the pyramid is benefiting hugely from technology.
Dialogue: 0,0:11:32.04,0:11:34.68,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,The economist Robert Jensen did this wonderful study
Dialogue: 0,0:11:34.68,0:11:37.85,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,a while back where he watched, in great detail,
Dialogue: 0,0:11:37.85,0:11:41.23,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,what happened to the fishing villages of Kerala, India,
Dialogue: 0,0:11:41.23,0:11:44.24,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,when they got mobile phones for the very first time,
Dialogue: 0,0:11:44.24,0:11:46.98,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and when you write for the Quarterly Journal of Economics,
Dialogue: 0,0:11:46.98,0:11:49.87,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,you have to use very dry and very circumspect language,
Dialogue: 0,0:11:49.87,0:11:52.34,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,but when I read his paper, I kind of feel Jensen is trying
Dialogue: 0,0:11:52.34,0:11:55.36,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,to scream at us, and say, look, this was a big deal.
Dialogue: 0,0:11:55.36,0:11:59.42,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Prices stabilized, so people could plan their economic lives.
Dialogue: 0,0:11:59.42,0:12:03.54,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Waste was not reduced; it was eliminated.
Dialogue: 0,0:12:03.54,0:12:06.01,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And the lives of both the buyers and the sellers
Dialogue: 0,0:12:06.01,0:12:08.51,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,in these villages measurably improved.
Dialogue: 0,0:12:08.51,0:12:12.23,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Now, what I don't think is that Jensen got extremely lucky
Dialogue: 0,0:12:12.23,0:12:14.58,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and happened to land in the one set of villages
Dialogue: 0,0:12:14.58,0:12:17.09,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,where technology made things better.
Dialogue: 0,0:12:17.09,0:12:19.70,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,What happened instead is he very carefully documented
Dialogue: 0,0:12:19.70,0:12:22.39,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,what happens over and over again when technology
Dialogue: 0,0:12:22.39,0:12:25.65,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,comes for the first time to an environment and a community.
Dialogue: 0,0:12:25.65,0:12:29.62,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,The lives of people, the welfares of people, improve dramatically.
Dialogue: 0,0:12:29.62,0:12:31.97,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So as I look around at all the evidence, and I think about
Dialogue: 0,0:12:31.97,0:12:34.45,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,the room that we have ahead of us, I become a huge
Dialogue: 0,0:12:34.45,0:12:37.27,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,digital optimist, and I start to think that this wonderful
Dialogue: 0,0:12:37.27,0:12:40.33,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,statement from the physicist Freeman Dyson
Dialogue: 0,0:12:40.33,0:12:44.90,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,is actually not hyperbole. This is an accurate assessment of what's going on.
Dialogue: 0,0:12:44.90,0:12:47.35,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Our digital -- our technologies are great gifts,
Dialogue: 0,0:12:47.35,0:12:50.51,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and we, right now, have the great good fortune
Dialogue: 0,0:12:50.51,0:12:54.04,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,to be living at a time when digital technology is flourishing,
Dialogue: 0,0:12:54.04,0:12:55.69,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,when it is broadening and deepening and
Dialogue: 0,0:12:55.69,0:12:59.04,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,becoming more profound all around the world.
Dialogue: 0,0:12:59.04,0:13:02.25,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So, yeah, the droids are taking our jobs,
Dialogue: 0,0:13:02.25,0:13:06.07,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,but focusing on that fact misses the point entirely.
Dialogue: 0,0:13:06.07,0:13:09.32,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,The point is that then we are freed up to do other things,
Dialogue: 0,0:13:09.32,0:13:11.98,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and what we are going to do, I am very confident,
Dialogue: 0,0:13:11.98,0:13:15.04,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,what we're going to do is reduce poverty and drudgery
Dialogue: 0,0:13:15.04,0:13:17.70,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and misery around the world. I'm very confident
Dialogue: 0,0:13:17.70,0:13:20.74,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,we're going to learn to live more lightly on the planet,
Dialogue: 0,0:13:20.74,0:13:24.22,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and I am extremely confident that what we're going to do
Dialogue: 0,0:13:24.22,0:13:27.14,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,with our new digital tools is going to be so profound
Dialogue: 0,0:13:27.14,0:13:30.03,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and so beneficial that it's going to make a mockery
Dialogue: 0,0:13:30.03,0:13:31.76,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,out of everything that came before.
Dialogue: 0,0:13:31.76,0:13:34.50,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,I'm going to leave the last word to a guy who had
Dialogue: 0,0:13:34.50,0:13:36.28,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,a front row seat for digital progress,
Dialogue: 0,0:13:36.28,0:13:38.84,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,our old friend Ken Jennings. I'm with him.
Dialogue: 0,0:13:38.84,0:13:40.20,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,I'm going to echo his words:
Dialogue: 0,0:13:40.20,0:13:44.18,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,"I, for one, welcome our new computer overlords." (Laughter)
Dialogue: 0,0:13:44.18,0:13:47.10,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Thanks very much. (Applause)