[Script Info]
Title: 
[Events]
Format: Layer, Start, End, Style, Name, MarginL, MarginR, MarginV, Effect, Text
Dialogue: 0,0:00:00.00,0:00:03.14,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,(Ian Goldin) Great, thank you: it's \Nwonderful to be with educators
Dialogue: 0,0:00:03.14,0:00:06.38,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,who care about the intersection\Nof learning and technology,
Dialogue: 0,0:00:06.38,0:00:08.08,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,because that's going to shape the future.
Dialogue: 0,0:00:08.39,0:00:11.25,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Whether we're able \Nto get this right or not
Dialogue: 0,0:00:11.25,0:00:14.48,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,will determine whether we have\Na glorious 21st century
Dialogue: 0,0:00:14.73,0:00:17.35,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,or a period of unmitigated risks.
Dialogue: 0,0:00:17.81,0:00:21.50,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,The walls are coming down everywhere and\Nit's difficult to not think about this,
Dialogue: 0,0:00:21.50,0:00:23.94,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,being so close to it, here in Berlin,
Dialogue: 0,0:00:23.95,0:00:26.90,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,25 years ago, these walls coming down.
Dialogue: 0,0:00:26.90,0:00:29.42,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,But it's not just about physical walls\Ncoming down,
Dialogue: 0,0:00:29.84,0:00:32.91,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,it's about mental walls,\Nit's about financial walls,
Dialogue: 0,0:00:32.91,0:00:34.64,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,it's about technological walls.
Dialogue: 0,0:00:34.66,0:00:38.20,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,All the walls are coming down,\Nand it's that
Dialogue: 0,0:00:38.20,0:00:41.96,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,which makes this the most exciting century \Nin the history of humanity.
Dialogue: 0,0:00:42.32,0:00:45.66,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,It changes all of our lives\Nin surprising ways.
Dialogue: 0,0:00:45.89,0:00:47.78,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And it's certainly changed mine.
Dialogue: 0,0:00:47.79,0:00:50.22,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,I was living in Paris \Nwhen this wall came down.
Dialogue: 0,0:00:50.59,0:00:53.20,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,I didn't imagine that it would touch me\Npersonally.
Dialogue: 0,0:00:53.20,0:00:57.22,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,I thought it was about Eastern Europe,\Nabout the Cold War, about something else.
Dialogue: 0,0:00:57.22,0:01:01.28,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,But within 6 months, I would, \Nmuch to my surprise,
Dialogue: 0,0:01:01.28,0:01:06.28,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,I was invited to have dinner with\NPresident Mandela in Paris.
Dialogue: 0,0:01:06.28,0:01:09.20,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,He wasn't president then, \Nhe had just been released from prison.
Dialogue: 0,0:01:09.62,0:01:12.25,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,But he was released \Nbecause the Cold War ended.
Dialogue: 0,0:01:13.07,0:01:16.51,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And the defining feature of this period\Nwe live in, our lives,
Dialogue: 0,0:01:17.52,0:01:21.86,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,is that what happens elsewhere will\Ndramatically affect us in new ways.
Dialogue: 0,0:01:21.86,0:01:25.34,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,It's this change that results \Nfrom the walls coming down.
Dialogue: 0,0:01:25.34,0:01:29.30,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And it's this change that will shape\Neducation going forward
Dialogue: 0,0:01:29.30,0:01:30.97,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and technological progress.
Dialogue: 0,0:01:31.70,0:01:36.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And of course, the other fundamental \Nperiod of -- in this time --
Dialogue: 0,0:01:36.00,0:01:40.17,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,is technology, technology\Nwhich got off the ground
Dialogue: 0,0:01:40.17,0:01:44.35,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,at the same time as the Berlin Wall\Ncame down, over 25 years,
Dialogue: 0,0:01:44.35,0:01:47.49,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,this exponential growth in\Nvirtual connectivity.
Dialogue: 0,0:01:48.58,0:01:53.40,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And now we have a world of 5 billion\Nliterate, educated people
Dialogue: 0,0:01:53.40,0:01:55.80,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,whereas we had a world, \Nonly 30 years ago,
Dialogue: 0,0:01:55.80,0:01:58.71,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,of well less than a billion \Nconnected people.
Dialogue: 0,0:01:59.16,0:02:02.57,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Four billion more literate\Nconnected people in the world,
Dialogue: 0,0:02:02.57,0:02:04.37,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and this is the engine of change,
Dialogue: 0,0:02:04.37,0:02:08.09,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,where the people in the slums of Mumbai,\NSoweto, Sao Paulo,
Dialogue: 0,0:02:10.16,0:02:11.83,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,or in apartments in Berlin,
Dialogue: 0,0:02:11.83,0:02:14.97,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,they will contribute to change \Nin surprising new ways.
Dialogue: 0,0:02:14.97,0:02:16.31,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And they're coming together.
Dialogue: 0,0:02:16.58,0:02:18.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,There is a release of individual genius.
Dialogue: 0,0:02:18.99,0:02:24.03,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,If you believe in the random distribution\Nof exceptional capabilities, which I do,
Dialogue: 0,0:02:24.03,0:02:29.04,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,there is just more people out there,\Neducated, connected, giving, learning.
Dialogue: 0,0:02:29.04,0:02:31.45,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,But I also believe in collective genius,
Dialogue: 0,0:02:31.45,0:02:33.69,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,the capabilities of people \Ncoming together,
Dialogue: 0,0:02:33.69,0:02:36.35,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,to form teams, \Nto learn from each other
Dialogue: 0,0:02:37.32,0:02:40.63,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,through the methods that \Nwe heard about this morning.
Dialogue: 0,0:02:40.63,0:02:42.37,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and in other ways.
Dialogue: 0,0:02:42.37,0:02:46.53,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So new cures for cancer being developed\Non 24-hour cycles around the world.
Dialogue: 0,0:02:46.53,0:02:52.62,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,My lab in Oxford, doing this with people \Nin Beijing and San Francisco and Palo Alto
Dialogue: 0,0:02:52.62,0:02:54.79,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and all over, in real time.
Dialogue: 0,0:02:55.41,0:02:57.69,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,There is no sleep on innovation any more.
Dialogue: 0,0:02:57.98,0:03:01.21,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And that's the power, the engine,\Nwhich brings change.
Dialogue: 0,0:03:01.21,0:03:03.03,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So if you think you've seen \Na lot of change
Dialogue: 0,0:03:03.03,0:03:05.13,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,be ready for much more surprises.
Dialogue: 0,0:03:05.13,0:03:08.08,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,This is the slowest time in history\Nyou will know.
Dialogue: 0,0:03:08.47,0:03:11.60,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,It's going to get faster,\Nthe pace of change greater,
Dialogue: 0,0:03:11.60,0:03:14.28,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,the surprises more intense.
Dialogue: 0,0:03:14.66,0:03:16.54,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,It's always going to be
Dialogue: 0,0:03:19.04,0:03:21.68,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,more and more difficult \Nto predict what's next.
Dialogue: 0,0:03:21.68,0:03:25.27,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Uncertainty will grow because\Nthe pace of change is growing.
Dialogue: 0,0:03:25.27,0:03:26.78,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Because the walls have come down,
Dialogue: 0,0:03:26.78,0:03:31.33,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,there are two billion more people \Nin the world since 1990.
Dialogue: 0,0:03:31.94,0:03:34.48,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And that's because ideas have traveled,\Nsimple ideas,
Dialogue: 0,0:03:34.48,0:03:38.04,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,like washing your hands prevents\Ncontagious diseases;
Dialogue: 0,0:03:38.04,0:03:41.91,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,really complicated ideas\Nlike those embedded in vaccines
Dialogue: 0,0:03:41.91,0:03:44.64,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,in new cures for cancer\Nand many other things.
Dialogue: 0,0:03:44.97,0:03:49.24,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Two billion more people coming together,\Nmost of them now urbanized,
Dialogue: 0,0:03:49.57,0:03:52.32,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and even those that aren't\Nphysically together,
Dialogue: 0,0:03:52.32,0:03:53.78,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,virtually together.
Dialogue: 0,0:03:53.79,0:03:56.28,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,A quite extraordinary moment\Nin human history,
Dialogue: 0,0:03:56.28,0:03:59.65,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,one where we've come together\Nas a community,
Dialogue: 0,0:04:00.66,0:04:05.60,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,like we were 150,000 years ago,\Nwhen we lived in villages together,
Dialogue: 0,0:04:05.60,0:04:09.87,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,our ancestors in East Africa,\Nand then dispersed around the world
Dialogue: 0,0:04:09.87,0:04:11.85,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and now, reconnected.
Dialogue: 0,0:04:11.85,0:04:15.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And it's this reconnection, which\NI believe, gives us the potential.
Dialogue: 0,0:04:15.99,0:04:17.56,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,But do we learn from it?
Dialogue: 0,0:04:17.56,0:04:20.16,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And are we able to think of ourselves\Nin new ways,
Dialogue: 0,0:04:20.16,0:04:22.21,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,because we're connecting in new ways?
Dialogue: 0,0:04:22.40,0:04:27.43,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Is this wall coming down changing the way\Nwe are and we think?
Dialogue: 0,0:04:27.43,0:04:31.19,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Or do we still think like individualists\Nin our nation states,
Dialogue: 0,0:04:31.19,0:04:34.98,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,pursuing our own self-interest\Nand those of our countries,
Dialogue: 0,0:04:34.98,0:04:38.32,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,not realizing that now,\Nwe are in a different game?
Dialogue: 0,0:04:38.32,0:04:40.57,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Now we're in a game in which\Nwe have to cooperate,
Dialogue: 0,0:04:40.57,0:04:42.45,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,where we have to think about others,
Dialogue: 0,0:04:42.45,0:04:47.33,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,where our actions, for the first time,\Nspill over in dramatic new ways
Dialogue: 0,0:04:47.33,0:04:50.19,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and affect people \Non the other side of the planet.
Dialogue: 0,0:04:51.49,0:04:57.94,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,This pace of education means that \Nnot only are we liberating ourselves,
Dialogue: 0,0:04:57.94,0:05:02.22,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,but we're liberating people from\Nall sorts of past habits.
Dialogue: 0,0:05:02.22,0:05:06.02,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And this change is leading \Nto quick changes in social norms.
Dialogue: 0,0:05:07.76,0:05:10.48,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Acceptance of gay marriage \Nis one of those,
Dialogue: 0,0:05:10.48,0:05:12.88,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,but there'll be many, many, many others.
Dialogue: 0,0:05:12.88,0:05:15.57,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And so, what we think about \Nas normal today
Dialogue: 0,0:05:16.04,0:05:19.21,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,will seem very strange \Nin a few years' time:
Dialogue: 0,0:05:19.46,0:05:23.27,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,this pace of change driven by education,
Dialogue: 0,0:05:24.53,0:05:27.07,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,more doctorates being created \Nin China now
Dialogue: 0,0:05:27.07,0:05:29.54,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,than in the rest of the world \Nput together every year,
Dialogue: 0,0:05:29.54,0:05:31.30,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,more scientists alive today
Dialogue: 0,0:05:31.30,0:05:33.35,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,than all the scientists \Nthat ever lived in history,
Dialogue: 0,0:05:33.35,0:05:35.31,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,more literate people alive today
Dialogue: 0,0:05:35.31,0:05:37.66,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,than all the literate people \Nthat ever lived in history.
Dialogue: 0,0:05:37.66,0:05:39.60,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,This is the engine of change.
Dialogue: 0,0:05:40.30,0:05:43.34,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,But it's not simply about \Nmore and more progress.
Dialogue: 0,0:05:43.34,0:05:45.28,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,It's not simply that we know
Dialogue: 0,0:05:45.28,0:05:47.12,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that this is going to get \Nbetter and better.
Dialogue: 0,0:05:48.23,0:05:50.08,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,It's about what's next.
Dialogue: 0,0:05:50.08,0:05:51.82,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,We don't know what the future holds.
Dialogue: 0,0:05:51.82,0:05:55.03,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,We live in this extraordinary moment \Nof our lives
Dialogue: 0,0:05:55.03,0:06:00.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,where we've seen exponential growth\Nin incomes: that's red.
Dialogue: 0,0:06:00.46,0:06:03.85,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And we seen this most rapid \Nincrease in populations,
Dialogue: 0,0:06:03.85,0:06:09.57,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and income growth, even more rapid\Nthan population growth, which is why
Dialogue: 0,0:06:09.57,0:06:13.01,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,people have escaped poverty at a pace\Nthat has never happened in history.
Dialogue: 0,0:06:13.50,0:06:18.02,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Despite the world's population increasing\Nby two billion over the last 25 years,
Dialogue: 0,0:06:18.02,0:06:22.40,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,the number of desperately poor people\Nhas gone down by about 300 million.
Dialogue: 0,0:06:22.40,0:06:23.95,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,This has never happened before.
Dialogue: 0,0:06:23.95,0:06:27.76,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,This is an incredible time, by far \Nthe best time to be alive.
Dialogue: 0,0:06:28.05,0:06:31.48,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Just while you're here, your average \Nlife expectancy should increase
Dialogue: 0,0:06:31.48,0:06:32.88,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,by about 10 hours.
Dialogue: 0,0:06:33.26,0:06:34.83,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,That's the pace of progress:
Dialogue: 0,0:06:35.44,0:06:38.94,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,what you're learning,\Nand what's happening in the labs.
Dialogue: 0,0:06:39.26,0:06:42.29,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And it's that which makes me \Nincredibly optimistic.
Dialogue: 0,0:06:42.29,0:06:45.97,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,This is the age of discovery,\Nthis is the new Renaissance.
Dialogue: 0,0:06:46.32,0:06:49.98,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,This is a period of creativity\Nand technological change
Dialogue: 0,0:06:50.22,0:06:52.91,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,which hasn't been seen for 500 years.
Dialogue: 0,0:06:52.91,0:06:55.93,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,This is from my stem cell lab\Nin the Oxford Martin School:
Dialogue: 0,0:06:57.33,0:07:00.38,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,the lab technician's skin\Nturned into a heart cell.
Dialogue: 0,0:07:00.69,0:07:03.41,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And this is one of the \Nextraordinary things that's happening
Dialogue: 0,0:07:04.06,0:07:07.25,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that makes one so excited \Nabout the future.
Dialogue: 0,0:07:07.70,0:07:12.67,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,A future of rising life expectancy,\Nso children being born today
Dialogue: 0,0:07:12.67,0:07:19.42,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,in Berlin or elsewhere in Europe,\Nwill have life expectancies well over 100,
Dialogue: 0,0:07:19.42,0:07:22.27,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and not having to worry about the things\Nthat I worry about,
Dialogue: 0,0:07:22.27,0:07:25.03,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,like Alzheimer's, Parkinson's and dementia.
Dialogue: 0,0:07:25.03,0:07:29.12,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,But what skills are they learning today\Nthat will help them shape this future,
Dialogue: 0,0:07:29.12,0:07:33.75,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,prepare for it, and will still be relevant\Nin a hundred years time?
Dialogue: 0,0:07:34.28,0:07:38.32,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,It's those skills that you have \Nthe responsibility to help shape.
Dialogue: 0,0:07:38.68,0:07:43.88,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,We can imagine this glorious future,\Nan extraordinary time in human history.
Dialogue: 0,0:07:44.39,0:07:45.90,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,But we can also realize
Dialogue: 0,0:07:45.91,0:07:48.69,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that it could come very, very badly\Nat stuck.
Dialogue: 0,0:07:49.40,0:07:51.52,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,I looked at the Renaissance \Nfor inspiration
Dialogue: 0,0:07:51.52,0:07:55.34,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,to try and understand how people\Ninterpreted these choices.
Dialogue: 0,0:07:55.34,0:07:58.80,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,That was a period of \Ncreative exceptionalism,
Dialogue: 0,0:07:59.36,0:08:01.47,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,scientific exceptionalism.
Dialogue: 0,0:08:01.47,0:08:06.02,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And we think today of the iconic figures,\Nthe Michelangelos, the Da Vincis,
Dialogue: 0,0:08:06.02,0:08:07.60,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,the Copernicuses,
Dialogue: 0,0:08:07.60,0:08:11.67,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,discovering the earth went round the sun,\Nnot the other way round,
Dialogue: 0,0:08:11.89,0:08:15.71,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,fundamentally changing our understanding\Nof ourselves in the universe
Dialogue: 0,0:08:15.71,0:08:18.76,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,in ways that will happen \Nin our lifetimes.
Dialogue: 0,0:08:19.34,0:08:22.72,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Fundamental changes \Nwhich lead to Humanism,
Dialogue: 0,0:08:23.09,0:08:26.94,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Enlightenment and many, \Nmany other things,
Dialogue: 0,0:08:27.64,0:08:29.61,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,spurred by technologies.
Dialogue: 0,0:08:29.61,0:08:32.52,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Then, it was the Gutenberg press.
Dialogue: 0,0:08:32.88,0:08:35.61,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Simple ideas travel very rapidly.
Dialogue: 0,0:08:36.20,0:08:38.32,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Until then only monks \Ncould read and write,
Dialogue: 0,0:08:38.32,0:08:40.39,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,in Latin, in their monasteries.
Dialogue: 0,0:08:40.39,0:08:43.18,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Less than half of 1% of the world\Nwas literate.
Dialogue: 0,0:08:43.18,0:08:46.25,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,There was nothing to read \N-- and it was in Latin.
Dialogue: 0,0:08:46.76,0:08:51.18,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And then, this invention lead\Nto a whole new way of thinking.
Dialogue: 0,0:08:51.18,0:08:55.76,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Ideas traveled, people could learn\Nin their own languages,
Dialogue: 0,0:08:56.22,0:08:57.78,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and we had the Renaissance.
Dialogue: 0,0:08:58.51,0:09:00.81,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,We also had the development \Nof nationalism
Dialogue: 0,0:09:01.31,0:09:03.29,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,because people could identify.
Dialogue: 0,0:09:03.75,0:09:07.25,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and of course, massive \Ntechnological push-back.
Dialogue: 0,0:09:07.77,0:09:10.96,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,The Bonfire of the Vanities, \Nthe burning of books,
Dialogue: 0,0:09:11.27,0:09:13.92,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,not far from here and across Europe.
Dialogue: 0,0:09:14.40,0:09:19.25,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Destruction of presses,\Nreligious fundamentalism,
Dialogue: 0,0:09:19.25,0:09:22.85,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,extremism,\Nreligious wars for 150 years.
Dialogue: 0,0:09:22.85,0:09:24.97,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Now if you recall those curves I put up,
Dialogue: 0,0:09:24.97,0:09:28.49,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,of the long trajectory of income growth\Nand population growth,
Dialogue: 0,0:09:28.78,0:09:31.03,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,but the Renaissance did not figure.
Dialogue: 0,0:09:31.03,0:09:34.17,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,It was a non-event, \Nit lead to no improvements
Dialogue: 0,0:09:34.17,0:09:37.52,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,in people's welfare in Europe or beyond.
Dialogue: 0,0:09:37.88,0:09:39.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Are we different?
Dialogue: 0,0:09:39.31,0:09:44.59,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Can we embrace our technologies in ways\Nthat lead to sustained progress?
Dialogue: 0,0:09:44.94,0:09:47.43,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And there are two things I worry about\Nin this respect.
Dialogue: 0,0:09:47.78,0:09:51.95,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,First, while the walls have gone down\Nbetween societies,
Dialogue: 0,0:09:52.38,0:09:56.52,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,within societies, \Nthe walls are going up everywhere.
Dialogue: 0,0:09:56.52,0:10:00.16,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,All countries are experiencing \Nrising inequality.
Dialogue: 0,0:10:00.46,0:10:01.58,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Why is this?
Dialogue: 0,0:10:02.13,0:10:06.26,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,It's because the pace of progress \Nis so fast at the frontier
Dialogue: 0,0:10:06.74,0:10:10.38,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that this process of integration\N-- some call it globalization --
Dialogue: 0,0:10:10.77,0:10:15.85,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,has led to such rapid change\Nthat if you aren't on the frontier,
Dialogue: 0,0:10:15.85,0:10:21.06,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,if you don't have the skills, \Nthe mobility, the attitude to change,
Dialogue: 0,0:10:22.05,0:10:27.74,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,to adapt, to grab new things,\Nyou're left further and further behind.
Dialogue: 0,0:10:27.74,0:10:31.70,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,If you're in the wrong place, \Nwith the wrong skills at the wrong time,
Dialogue: 0,0:10:31.70,0:10:35.70,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,or you're too old,\Nyou're left further and further behind.
Dialogue: 0,0:10:35.70,0:10:38.72,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And so we see in all societies \Nrising inequality.
Dialogue: 0,0:10:39.05,0:10:42.49,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And some people have been able to capture\Nthe goods of globalization.
Dialogue: 0,0:10:43.05,0:10:44.82,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,They've been able to park their money,
Dialogue: 0,0:10:44.82,0:10:47.24,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,whether they are a corporation \Nin Bermuda or somewhere,
Dialogue: 0,0:10:47.24,0:10:50.89,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,or an individual in Monaco \Nor Lichtenstein or Luxembourg.
Dialogue: 0,0:10:51.05,0:10:53.61,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And so governments are becoming \Nless and less able
Dialogue: 0,0:10:54.42,0:10:56.93,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,to tax their citizens \Nand tax their corporates
Dialogue: 0,0:10:56.93,0:11:00.80,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and less able to fund education,\Nhealth, infrastructure,
Dialogue: 0,0:11:00.80,0:11:02.07,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and the other things we need.
Dialogue: 0,0:11:03.07,0:11:07.37,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And the second big problem\Nof this integration process
Dialogue: 0,0:11:07.37,0:11:09.20,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,is: when things connect,
Dialogue: 0,0:11:09.43,0:11:12.32,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,unfortunately,\Nnot only good stuff connects.
Dialogue: 0,0:11:12.56,0:11:14.72,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Rarely, bad stuff connects too.
Dialogue: 0,0:11:15.86,0:11:21.21,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And so the question is how do we have \Nthis complex, dense, intertwined system
Dialogue: 0,0:11:21.21,0:11:24.18,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,without becoming overwhelmed by it?
Dialogue: 0,0:11:24.18,0:11:26.96,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Are we able to manage\Nour interdependencies
Dialogue: 0,0:11:26.96,0:11:29.87,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,in ways that will be sustained\Nand benefit us,
Dialogue: 0,0:11:29.87,0:11:31.98,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,or will they overwhelm us?
Dialogue: 0,0:11:31.98,0:11:36.22,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And this is both the intended\Nconsequences which lead
Dialogue: 0,0:11:36.22,0:11:38.20,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,to unintended bads.
Dialogue: 0,0:11:38.20,0:11:42.40,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Our intended consequence of using\Nmore antibiotics around the world
Dialogue: 0,0:11:42.40,0:11:44.32,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,leading to antibiotic resistance.
Dialogue: 0,0:11:44.61,0:11:46.48,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Or as our energy growth grows\Naround the world
Dialogue: 0,0:11:46.48,0:11:50.11,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,because people are escaping poverty,\Nleading to climate change.
Dialogue: 0,0:11:50.54,0:11:54.67,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Or as our resource use increases\Nbecause people are consuming more food,
Dialogue: 0,0:11:54.93,0:11:56.70,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,leading to resource depletion.
Dialogue: 0,0:11:56.92,0:12:02.47,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And the unintended consequences,\Nbanks which spread around the globe
Dialogue: 0,0:12:02.47,0:12:06.23,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,becoming centers of cascading risk\Nand financial crisis.
Dialogue: 0,0:12:06.57,0:12:12.65,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Airports spreading pandemics, what I call\Nthe butterfly defect of globalization.
Dialogue: 0,0:12:13.64,0:12:15.79,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,The spreading of risk is not a new idea.
Dialogue: 0,0:12:15.79,0:12:19.29,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,We think in England that a rat coming\Noff a ship in Liverpool
Dialogue: 0,0:12:19.29,0:12:22.73,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,might have killed half the British\Npopulation in the Black Death.
Dialogue: 0,0:12:22.98,0:12:25.95,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Early globalization leading \Nto systemic risk.
Dialogue: 0,0:12:26.25,0:12:29.06,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,But what's new is the pace\Nand scale of the change.
Dialogue: 0,0:12:29.71,0:12:32.14,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So the swine flu that starts \Nin Mexico City
Dialogue: 0,0:12:32.14,0:12:35.91,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,in 160 countries in thirty days.
Dialogue: 0,0:12:35.91,0:12:39.40,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And the emerging infections group\Nin the Oxford Martin School
Dialogue: 0,0:12:39.97,0:12:44.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,has modeled spread of this\Nwith airline traffic
Dialogue: 0,0:12:44.00,0:12:45.64,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and shown it exactly replicates.
Dialogue: 0,0:12:45.64,0:12:48.48,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So the super-spreaders of the good\Nof globalization
Dialogue: 0,0:12:48.97,0:12:53.60,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,like JFK, Heathrow, Frankfurt, \Nand other great airports
Dialogue: 0,0:12:54.37,0:12:58.20,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,become the super-spreaders of the bads,\Nin this case, pandemics.
Dialogue: 0,0:12:59.06,0:13:02.19,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And in the cybersphere, of course,\Nwe see this dramatically,
Dialogue: 0,0:13:02.58,0:13:08.18,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that anything can be instantaneously\Nelsewhere, be it good or be it bad.
Dialogue: 0,0:13:08.52,0:13:11.48,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,In finance, we've seen a dramatic \Nindication of this,
Dialogue: 0,0:13:11.48,0:13:16.43,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,this collapsing system starting \Nfrom a subprime crisis in the US
Dialogue: 0,0:13:16.43,0:13:21.61,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,leading to 100 million people laid off\Nin work from work around the world.
Dialogue: 0,0:13:21.100,0:13:24.80,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So what happens somewhere\Ndramatically affecting people
Dialogue: 0,0:13:24.80,0:13:27.84,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,on the other side of the world\Nin the same way that my life
Dialogue: 0,0:13:27.84,0:13:31.80,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,was shaped, but sometimes\Nwith disastrous consequences.
Dialogue: 0,0:13:32.81,0:13:38.72,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And what the financial system also teaches\Nus is the rising power of individuals.
Dialogue: 0,0:13:38.94,0:13:44.49,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,These new technologies give individuals\Nsimply unprecedented powers.
Dialogue: 0,0:13:45.06,0:13:47.84,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Barings Bank had existed for 200 years.
Dialogue: 0,0:13:48.35,0:13:53.01,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,It had withstood the most amazing\Ntechnological, political, and other changes,
Dialogue: 0,0:13:53.01,0:13:58.77,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and one young man, Nick Leeson, \Nhaving some fun, a bit of trading,
Dialogue: 0,0:13:58.77,0:13:59.93,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,managed to bring it down.
Dialogue: 0,0:13:59.93,0:14:03.47,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And the same thing almost happened\Nin Société Générale with Jérôme Kerviel,
Dialogue: 0,0:14:03.47,0:14:06.11,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,JP Morgan, UBS, and many others.
Dialogue: 0,0:14:06.11,0:14:09.80,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,We see that these individuals\Nnow have power in new ways.
Dialogue: 0,0:14:10.18,0:14:14.87,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And of course, individuals can also,\Nin new ways, develop biopathogens
Dialogue: 0,0:14:14.87,0:14:18.81,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,using a DNA sequencing which\Nis going down exponentially in price,
Dialogue: 0,0:14:19.08,0:14:21.84,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,a single individual now\Ncan build something,
Dialogue: 0,0:14:21.84,0:14:24.49,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,using a technology like a drone \Nto distribute it,
Dialogue: 0,0:14:25.30,0:14:28.74,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and kill perhaps tens, if not hundreds, \Nof millions of people.
Dialogue: 0,0:14:28.100,0:14:33.72,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,This new capability, this new power\Nof individuals has changed
Dialogue: 0,0:14:34.38,0:14:38.90,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,so that nation states are becoming\Nless and less powerful
Dialogue: 0,0:14:39.26,0:14:41.29,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,relative to the power of individuals.
Dialogue: 0,0:14:41.29,0:14:44.11,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And there are seven billion of us\Ngrowing to nine billion
Dialogue: 0,0:14:44.11,0:14:45.86,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,over the next 35 years.
Dialogue: 0,0:14:46.73,0:14:49.53,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Within the cybersphere,\Nwe see this dramatically,
Dialogue: 0,0:14:49.74,0:14:52.66,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,how small groups can cause mayhem,
Dialogue: 0,0:14:52.66,0:14:55.13,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,steal all our records, \Nopen our bank accounts,
Dialogue: 0,0:14:55.13,0:14:57.22,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,they'll be opening our front door locks,
Dialogue: 0,0:14:57.22,0:15:00.72,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,controlling our vehicle-to-vehicle \Ncommunication, etc.
Dialogue: 0,0:15:01.38,0:15:07.30,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Understanding how we build systems\Nwhich liberate us,
Dialogue: 0,0:15:08.13,0:15:12.81,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and yet we do not become slaves \Nor vulnerable to, is the central question.
Dialogue: 0,0:15:13.53,0:15:17.93,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Can we create interdependent systems\Nwhere we are in control,
Dialogue: 0,0:15:17.93,0:15:19.36,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and what does that mean?
Dialogue: 0,0:15:19.68,0:15:25.27,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And that education process requires\Na new understanding of responsibility.
Dialogue: 0,0:15:25.63,0:15:29.28,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,As these technologies pervade \Nintoour bodies, on our bodies
Dialogue: 0,0:15:29.28,0:15:30.78,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and everything we do,
Dialogue: 0,0:15:30.78,0:15:32.37,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,it becomes more and more important.
Dialogue: 0,0:15:32.37,0:15:35.28,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Trust, integrity, judgment,
Dialogue: 0,0:15:35.77,0:15:39.21,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,these old things become \Nmore and more important.
Dialogue: 0,0:15:39.52,0:15:45.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,The financial crisis was characterized\Nby a number of remarkable things.
Dialogue: 0,0:15:46.59,0:15:52.30,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Over 250,000 extremely well-paid\Npeople in the central banks of the world
Dialogue: 0,0:15:52.85,0:15:58.45,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,in the IMF and other institutions\Nwith this enormous amount of data
Dialogue: 0,0:15:58.84,0:16:00.31,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,do not see it coming.
Dialogue: 0,0:16:01.29,0:16:04.11,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Too much data, too little integrity.
Dialogue: 0,0:16:04.52,0:16:06.64,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And as machines begin to take our jobs
Dialogue: 0,0:16:06.64,0:16:11.52,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,-- and one of my groups in the Oxford\NMartin School has said that 47% of US jobs
Dialogue: 0,0:16:11.52,0:16:15.11,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,will be lost to machine intelligence\Nover the next 20 years --
Dialogue: 0,0:16:15.36,0:16:19.58,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,people will increasingly see\Nmachine intelligence as a threat
Dialogue: 0,0:16:19.58,0:16:23.32,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,not only to their bank accounts\Nand other systems,
Dialogue: 0,0:16:23.32,0:16:25.68,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,but to their jobs and to their careers.
Dialogue: 0,0:16:25.97,0:16:30.62,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And so, how do we create education\Nsystems where we are not vulnerable
Dialogue: 0,0:16:31.28,0:16:32.98,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,to automation taking our jobs?
Dialogue: 0,0:16:32.98,0:16:36.62,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And the answer is, we need to do things\Nwhich are not automatable.
Dialogue: 0,0:16:36.90,0:16:38.16,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,What does that mean?
Dialogue: 0,0:16:38.40,0:16:45.44,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,It means creativity, dexterity, \Nempathy, judgment
Dialogue: 0,0:16:46.14,0:16:49.95,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and that's what will keep us \Ndifferent from machines
Dialogue: 0,0:16:49.95,0:16:51.91,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,for at least the next 50 years.
Dialogue: 0,0:16:52.78,0:16:57.49,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So, creating an environment where \Nmachines complement our abilities,
Dialogue: 0,0:16:57.78,0:17:00.07,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,help us, do many of the things
Dialogue: 0,0:17:00.07,0:17:04.27,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that are really, in many ways, \Ninhumane for people to be doing,
Dialogue: 0,0:17:04.66,0:17:06.93,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,dangerous and others;
Dialogue: 0,0:17:07.59,0:17:10.87,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,help us be more effective, \Nbut don't supplant us.
Dialogue: 0,0:17:11.34,0:17:13.63,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Being in Germany, we're reminded always
Dialogue: 0,0:17:13.63,0:17:17.60,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that it's not that technologies exist\Nthat people decide to adopt them.
Dialogue: 0,0:17:17.86,0:17:19.47,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,It's society's attitude.
Dialogue: 0,0:17:19.47,0:17:23.20,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Germany has banned nuclear power,\NIt has banned GMOs.
Dialogue: 0,0:17:23.53,0:17:26.32,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Many other places \Nembrace these technologies.
Dialogue: 0,0:17:27.08,0:17:29.83,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,It's what we feel about these technologies\Nthat matters.
Dialogue: 0,0:17:29.83,0:17:34.37,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,It's how we feel we can control them,\Nwhether we feel that we're on top,
Dialogue: 0,0:17:34.64,0:17:37.36,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,which will shape the way \Nthat societies adopt them.
Dialogue: 0,0:17:37.36,0:17:41.75,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And so, in education, it seems \Nabsolutely vital that we understand them.
Dialogue: 0,0:17:41.75,0:17:45.05,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,People need to understand\Nwhat genetic modification is.
Dialogue: 0,0:17:45.05,0:17:48.63,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,People need to understand\Nwhat DNA sequencing is.
Dialogue: 0,0:17:48.63,0:17:53.89,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,People need to understand these new, \Nextremely powerful technologies,
Dialogue: 0,0:17:53.89,0:17:58.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,which will change the way we are\Nand the choices we face going forward.
Dialogue: 0,0:17:58.99,0:18:03.84,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,There will be societal choices:\Ndo we want to create superhumans, or not?
Dialogue: 0,0:18:04.08,0:18:06.68,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And if others do it, \Nwhat is our attitude to that?
Dialogue: 0,0:18:06.94,0:18:11.02,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,These are choices that we will face,\Nlet alone the next generation.
Dialogue: 0,0:18:11.02,0:18:14.35,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So this handshake, \Nthis understanding of technology,
Dialogue: 0,0:18:14.35,0:18:18.35,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,the literacy becomes \Nmore and more important,
Dialogue: 0,0:18:18.35,0:18:20.15,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,as well as the interconnectivity.
Dialogue: 0,0:18:22.06,0:18:26.90,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,As we will become wealthier,\Nas we will become more connected,
Dialogue: 0,0:18:27.70,0:18:32.08,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,the spillovers of our choices\Nget stronger and stronger.
Dialogue: 0,0:18:32.64,0:18:36.73,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And we see this in many, many areas.\NWe see --
Dialogue: 0,0:18:37.31,0:18:41.46,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,-- sorry, I just want to go back to the \Nslide before with the video, if I may --
Dialogue: 0,0:18:43.14,0:18:51.94,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,(people arguing animatedly around\Na big tuna in Japanese, then clapping)
Dialogue: 0,0:18:51.94,0:18:54.69,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,(Goldin) This is the tuna market in Tokyo.
Dialogue: 0,0:18:54.69,0:18:59.18,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,This tuna was sold for about 1.5 million Euro.
Dialogue: 0,0:18:59.67,0:19:05.12,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,This the market's response to the scarcity\Nof a natural resource.
Dialogue: 0,0:19:05.77,0:19:08.88,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,The price goes up, the tuna don't know\Nhow much they're worth, of course.
Dialogue: 0,0:19:08.88,0:19:10.93,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,They don't reproduce more \Nwhen they're worth more.
Dialogue: 0,0:19:11.49,0:19:15.06,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Hi-tech fishermen go and chase\Nthe remaining tuna
Dialogue: 0,0:19:15.06,0:19:16.46,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and you get extinction.
Dialogue: 0,0:19:16.46,0:19:20.24,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And the same thing, of course, with rhino\Nand any natural resource.
Dialogue: 0,0:19:20.43,0:19:23.02,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Natural resources don't understand \Nmarkets.
Dialogue: 0,0:19:23.50,0:19:25.46,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,they are irrelevant to them.
Dialogue: 0,0:19:25.88,0:19:29.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and so, as we go forward and we have\Na market system which determines choice,
Dialogue: 0,0:19:29.99,0:19:31.31,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,on the one hand,
Dialogue: 0,0:19:31.31,0:19:33.02,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and more and more people \Nwith more wealth
Dialogue: 0,0:19:33.02,0:19:35.54,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,are claiming resources \Nthrough this system.
Dialogue: 0,0:19:35.54,0:19:39.64,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,But on the other hand, we have \Nthe supply of natural resources,
Dialogue: 0,0:19:39.64,0:19:41.44,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,determined in totally different ways,
Dialogue: 0,0:19:41.81,0:19:45.19,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,we have a very serious problem \Nof extinction.
Dialogue: 0,0:19:46.66,0:19:48.93,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Governments are not \Nvery smart at this either.
Dialogue: 0,0:19:48.93,0:19:53.76,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Thinking short term, \Nthey extract resource,
Dialogue: 0,0:19:54.20,0:19:55.92,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,often for the good of their people,
Dialogue: 0,0:19:55.92,0:19:58.42,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,but collectively, in the long term, \Na disaster.
Dialogue: 0,0:19:58.42,0:19:59.64,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,This is the Aral Sea.
Dialogue: 0,0:19:59.94,0:20:02.78,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Peop-- countries, six countries\Ndoing the right thing,
Dialogue: 0,0:20:02.78,0:20:04.62,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,drawing water to feed their people.
Dialogue: 0,0:20:04.96,0:20:07.24,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Collectively, a disaster.
Dialogue: 0,0:20:07.52,0:20:10.61,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,The examples of success \N-- and the Mediterranean is one --
Dialogue: 0,0:20:10.61,0:20:15.63,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,where citizens, scientists, politicians,\Ncivil society movements
Dialogue: 0,0:20:15.63,0:20:18.16,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,came together and saved this.
Dialogue: 0,0:20:18.16,0:20:22.04,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And with climate change, of course,\Nwe have this dramatic problem.
Dialogue: 0,0:20:23.92,0:20:27.76,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,What's happening in Paris this week\Nis of huge significance
Dialogue: 0,0:20:28.09,0:20:29.84,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,to the future of the planet.
Dialogue: 0,0:20:30.21,0:20:33.91,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,But it's not enough;\Nwe need to do much more.
Dialogue: 0,0:20:34.78,0:20:37.86,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And we need to do it in a way \Nthat allows people around the world
Dialogue: 0,0:20:37.86,0:20:39.65,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,to benefit from the things that we have.
Dialogue: 0,0:20:39.65,0:20:43.67,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,We've created 90% of the problem\Nin the rich countries
Dialogue: 0,0:20:44.63,0:20:50.56,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,but 80%, already 70% of the flows, (check)\Ngrowing to 80 over the next 15 years,
Dialogue: 0,0:20:50.56,0:20:52.83,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,will be coming from emerging markets.
Dialogue: 0,0:20:52.83,0:20:55.74,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So how do we let the rest of the world\Nclime the energy curve,
Dialogue: 0,0:20:56.32,0:21:01.24,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,while ensuring we keep global warming\Nto below 2 degrees?
Dialogue: 0,0:21:01.36,0:21:08.34,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,These collective decisions, increasingly,\Nwill shape the way that the planet moves.
Dialogue: 0,0:21:08.34,0:21:10.09,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Who's going to do this?
Dialogue: 0,0:21:11.00,0:21:15.90,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,This set of institutions is totally unfit\Nfor purpose.
Dialogue: 0,0:21:15.90,0:21:19.27,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,It was built in a different era,\Nwith different power structures.
Dialogue: 0,0:21:20.72,0:21:23.57,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,It is unable to meet \Nthe challenges of our time,
Dialogue: 0,0:21:23.57,0:21:27.73,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and in some areas, like cyber\Nthere is no institution at all.
Dialogue: 0,0:21:27.73,0:21:31.65,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Small changes, \Nlargely rearranging the furniture.
Dialogue: 0,0:21:31.65,0:21:34.25,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,(laughter)
Dialogue: 0,0:21:34.67,0:21:39.62,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,(Goldin) So I think of us as nations,\Nlike in a cabin within a big ocean liner,
Dialogue: 0,0:21:39.62,0:21:45.56,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,each in our little cabin, drifting\Nwith no captain, on Planet Earth's deck.
Dialogue: 0,0:21:46.42,0:21:51.36,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Again, part of this is the result\Nof extroardinarily positive changes.
Dialogue: 0,0:21:51.78,0:21:56.33,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,We're no longer in a world\Nwhere twelve white men, smoking cigars,
Dialogue: 0,0:21:56.33,0:21:58.94,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,could sit in their room and decide\Nthe earth's future,
Dialogue: 0,0:21:59.10,0:22:01.09,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,as they did after the Second World War.
Dialogue: 0,0:22:01.60,0:22:05.88,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,New power balances mean we have \Nto have a transition in power.
Dialogue: 0,0:22:05.88,0:22:09.29,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,But we're in this dangerous time\Nwhere the old powers no longer rule
Dialogue: 0,0:22:09.29,0:22:12.84,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and the new powers have not been able\Nto step up to the plate.
Dialogue: 0,0:22:12.84,0:22:17.11,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So it's a time of transition, it's a time \Nwhere the big institutions,
Dialogue: 0,0:22:17.11,0:22:20.68,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,the best of them like the IMF,\Nhave proved themselves
Dialogue: 0,0:22:21.25,0:22:23.52,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,totally unfit for purpose.
Dialogue: 0,0:22:23.90,0:22:27.96,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,It requires citizens, it requires \Nthinking in new ways
Dialogue: 0,0:22:27.96,0:22:29.49,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,to overcome this problem.
Dialogue: 0,0:22:29.49,0:22:31.48,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Thinking which overcomes short-termism,
Dialogue: 0,0:22:31.72,0:22:36.11,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,be it in business or \Nbe it in our own decisions.
Dialogue: 0,0:22:36.11,0:22:39.26,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,We need to think long, \Nbecause we're here for the long term
Dialogue: 0,0:22:39.26,0:22:43.19,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and the kids of today will be here\Nfor at least the next century.
Dialogue: 0,0:22:44.05,0:22:48.83,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,How we do this and how we realize\Nthat our own decisions, increasingly,
Dialogue: 0,0:22:49.29,0:22:52.69,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,are entangled with others'\Nis of course the critical question.
Dialogue: 0,0:22:52.88,0:22:56.32,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,What we see in the politics\Nis a reversal.
Dialogue: 0,0:22:57.45,0:23:01.55,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,People feel the future is scary,\Nuncertain.
Dialogue: 0,0:23:01.85,0:23:06.51,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,They feel that openness and connectivity\Nmakes them more vulnerable,
Dialogue: 0,0:23:06.51,0:23:07.64,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and they're right.
Dialogue: 0,0:23:07.89,0:23:11.30,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And so, we see this political revulsion\Nwith extremism growing
Dialogue: 0,0:23:11.68,0:23:15.58,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,in all countries, but certainly in Europe\Nand in the US.
Dialogue: 0,0:23:15.90,0:23:20.18,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,People wanting to return to an age\Nwhich they romanticize as being better:
Dialogue: 0,0:23:21.29,0:23:24.29,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,protectionist, nationalist, xenophobic.
Dialogue: 0,0:23:25.05,0:23:26.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,It's profoundly misguided.
Dialogue: 0,0:23:27.64,0:23:30.22,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,In order to ensure that \Nwe can manage this world,
Dialogue: 0,0:23:30.44,0:23:32.86,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,we need to be more connected, not less.
Dialogue: 0,0:23:32.86,0:23:37.22,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,We need to ensure that we're able\Nto come together, but be protected;
Dialogue: 0,0:23:37.92,0:23:43.42,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,resilient, thinking together, and insuring\Nthat through our decisions
Dialogue: 0,0:23:43.42,0:23:46.97,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,we not only protect our own futures
Dialogue: 0,0:23:47.42,0:23:50.52,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,but protect those of others \Nand the planet.
Dialogue: 0,0:23:50.73,0:24:01.28,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Thank you.\N(Applause)
Dialogue: 0,0:24:01.28,0:24:04.56,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,If we can do all that, we can rock on\Nto a happy old age.
Dialogue: 0,0:24:04.56,0:24:06.64,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,(Moderator) Ian, (laughs) \Nthank you very much indeed.
Dialogue: 0,0:24:06.64,0:24:09.44,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,There's a lot of comments here, but\Nthere is one theme that is emerging.
Dialogue: 0,0:24:09.44,0:24:15.24,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Let me just give you this one comment\Nfrom Anastasia Brewer (check), I think it was?
Dialogue: 0,0:24:15.65,0:24:17.88,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,It's just nipped out as --
Dialogue: 0,0:24:18.32,0:24:22.20,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,I want to pick up actually, really,\Non what David said right at the beginning
Dialogue: 0,0:24:22.20,0:24:24.88,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,about "Don't be afraid, \Ndon't be in denial"
Dialogue: 0,0:24:25.08,0:24:26.98,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and this need for change,\Nand what you said about
Dialogue: 0,0:24:26.98,0:24:31.26,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,the new normal will feel very strange\Nin a few years' time,
Dialogue: 0,0:24:31.26,0:24:34.85,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,because Jeff Kortenbosch\Nmakes this comment:
Dialogue: 0,0:24:34.85,0:24:38.53,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,"A key skill set should be about \Nadapting to rapid change,
Dialogue: 0,0:24:38.53,0:24:41.18,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,"to learn, unlearn and relearn."
Dialogue: 0,0:24:41.18,0:24:45.52,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And the debate tonight is going to be\Nabout 21st century skills
Dialogue: 0,0:24:45.52,0:24:48.02,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,are not being taught in schools\Nand should be.
Dialogue: 0,0:24:48.02,0:24:51.20,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Now, much of the work in the Martin School\Nis about behavior
Dialogue: 0,0:24:51.79,0:24:53.64,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and about understanding \Nhow the brain works
Dialogue: 0,0:24:53.64,0:24:56.46,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and adaptability and the fears of \Nthe second (check) generation
Dialogue: 0,0:24:56.46,0:24:58.81,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,to be able to adapt to this new shift,
Dialogue: 0,0:24:58.81,0:25:02.54,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,which is accelerating probably even faster\Nthan most realize.
Dialogue: 0,0:25:03.12,0:25:07.13,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,How optimistic can we be that actually,\Nour human capacity can cope with this?
Dialogue: 0,0:25:08.11,0:25:10.14,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,(Goldin) Yes, this is \Nthe most difficult question.
Dialogue: 0,0:25:10.75,0:25:13.85,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,My sense is that the world is moving\Nat a revolutionary speed
Dialogue: 0,0:25:14.74,0:25:20.31,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and we and our institutions are\Nevolutionary very slow adapters.
Dialogue: 0,0:25:20.94,0:25:25.87,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,My hope is that this concentration\Nof knowledge which is being unleashed
Dialogue: 0,0:25:25.87,0:25:29.25,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,through the new connectivity and literacy\Nwill allow us to leapfrog.
Dialogue: 0,0:25:29.25,0:25:33.13,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And we do see that, \Nand we see signs of this in so many ways.
Dialogue: 0,0:25:33.13,0:25:35.54,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So there's all sorts of exciting things,
Dialogue: 0,0:25:35.54,0:25:37.93,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,like the things we heard about \Nearlier today,
Dialogue: 0,0:25:37.93,0:25:39.28,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that are happening.
Dialogue: 0,0:25:39.60,0:25:42.72,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,The big question, and I think it's going\Nto be partly a question that's resolved
Dialogue: 0,0:25:42.72,0:25:46.64,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,in Paris this week, is can we learn\Nto cooperate on these big challenges.
Dialogue: 0,0:25:46.64,0:25:49.84,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Are we able to give up \Nsome independence and sovereignty
Dialogue: 0,0:25:49.84,0:25:52.56,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,as individuals or as countries,
Dialogue: 0,0:25:52.56,0:25:55.41,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,to ensure that collectively, \Nwe'll all have a bigger future.
Dialogue: 0,0:25:55.41,0:25:57.73,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Are we able take longer term--\N(Moderator) What about the .... (check)
Dialogue: 0,0:25:57.73,0:26:00.72,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and the ability and -- we've only got\Nabout 3 minutes to run now --
Dialogue: 0,0:26:00.72,0:26:02.92,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,but what about the ability \Nof the human being
Dialogue: 0,0:26:02.92,0:26:06.100,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,to cope with this enormity, particularly\Nto adapt to the speed
Dialogue: 0,0:26:06.100,0:26:08.36,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that the next generation,
Dialogue: 0,0:26:08.36,0:26:10.81,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,through the education process,\Nwill be expecting?
Dialogue: 0,0:26:10.81,0:26:12.21,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,(Goldin) Humans can do anything.
Dialogue: 0,0:26:13.17,0:26:19.16,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,In my college at Oxford Balliol, we had\Na third of the college giving their lives
Dialogue: 0,0:26:19.16,0:26:20.23,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,in the First World War,
Dialogue: 0,0:26:20.23,0:26:24.09,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and about 20% of the college giving \Ntheir lives in the Second World War
Dialogue: 0,0:26:24.09,0:26:26.48,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,to defend ideals of freedom.
Dialogue: 0,0:26:27.71,0:26:30.52,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,People are prepared to make the most\Nextraordinary sacrifices,
Dialogue: 0,0:26:30.52,0:26:32.44,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,to change their lives fundamentally,
Dialogue: 0,0:26:32.44,0:26:34.74,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,if they believe that \Nit's the right thing to do.
Dialogue: 0,0:26:34.74,0:26:36.04,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,(Moderator) Can they do it?\N(Goldin) Yes, they can.
Dialogue: 0,0:26:36.04,0:26:39.02,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,We've done it before, we can do it again:\NI'm absolutely convinced.
Dialogue: 0,0:26:39.02,0:26:42.38,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,(Applause)
Dialogue: 0,0:26:42.38,0:26:44.61,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,(Moderator) But again, I'm picking up and\Ntrying to bring together
Dialogue: 0,0:26:44.61,0:26:47.58,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,a number of themes here, but that --\Nwhat David said right at the beginning:
Dialogue: 0,0:26:47.58,0:26:49.54,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,"Don't be afraid, don't be in denial."
Dialogue: 0,0:26:50.02,0:26:54.14,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,That is achievable, is it, that kind of\Nreversal with this scale of change,
Dialogue: 0,0:26:54.14,0:26:56.32,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and the shift, \Nthe acceleration taking place?
Dialogue: 0,0:26:57.53,0:27:01.73,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,(Goldin) Yes. I think one has to \Nopen one's eyes
Dialogue: 0,0:27:01.73,0:27:04.34,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,before one can see \Nwhat's happening around.
Dialogue: 0,0:27:04.34,0:27:07.41,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And this pace of change is really \Nwhat it's about.
Dialogue: 0,0:27:07.41,0:27:09.57,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Are we able to appreciate
Dialogue: 0,0:27:09.57,0:27:12.12,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,this extraordinary moment in history\Nwe're in?
Dialogue: 0,0:27:12.12,0:27:15.83,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,This age of discovery, are we able\Nto recognize it for what it is,
Dialogue: 0,0:27:15.83,0:27:18.37,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and seize the opportunities\Nthat come with it?
Dialogue: 0,0:27:19.04,0:27:21.100,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,(Moderator) Yes, I'm going to stop there.\NI'm afraid you - because you ran too much,
Dialogue: 0,0:27:21.100,0:27:26.48,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,25 minutes, so the 30 minutes is up, so\NI have to stop you at that point
Dialogue: 0,0:27:26.48,0:27:29.35,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,because some people have begun to leave,\Nthere's coffee and everything else
Dialogue: 0,0:27:29.35,0:27:30.87,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and a very tight schedule.
Dialogue: 0,0:27:30.87,0:27:35.52,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Remember, this is going to be part of \Na big debate later tonight
Dialogue: 0,0:27:35.52,0:27:39.76,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and also, let me underscore that \Neveryone here can talk more about it.
Dialogue: 0,0:27:39.76,0:27:42.43,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And indeed, David Price is signing \Nhis book,
Dialogue: 0,0:27:42.43,0:27:47.09,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,"How will we work, live and learn\Nin the future?" at 13:05,
Dialogue: 0,0:27:47.09,0:27:50.25,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and that's in Potsdam 3,
Dialogue: 0,0:27:50.25,0:27:55.77,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and "Information doesn't want to be free",\NCory is going to be speaking about that
Dialogue: 0,0:27:55.77,0:28:00.27,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,on copyright in the digital age, as well,\Nat 12 o'clock.
Dialogue: 0,0:28:00.68,0:28:05.13,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So, plenty: we've really burdened you\Nwith an enormous number of concepts.
Dialogue: 0,0:28:05.13,0:28:07.02,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And David, can I tell you as well,
Dialogue: 0,0:28:07.02,0:28:11.43,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,there are large numbers of people \Nwho sent messages, admiring your battle
Dialogue: 0,0:28:11.43,0:28:13.46,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and how you've won your battle on health.
Dialogue: 0,0:28:13.67,0:28:16.73,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Can I thank you all very much indeed, \Nand also for contributing
Dialogue: 0,0:28:16.73,0:28:20.32,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,some important comments and questions\Nfrom the floor.
Dialogue: 0,0:28:20.66,0:28:23.26,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,It's coffee time.\N(Applause)
Dialogue: 0,0:28:23.26,0:28:29.49,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,[Recordings of this session will be \Nuploaded to www.online-educa.com] 28:31