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(Ian Goldin) Great, thank you: it's 
wonderful to be with educators

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who care about the intersection
of learning and technology,

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because that's going to shape the future.

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Whether we're able 
to get this right or not

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will determine whether we have
a glorious 21st century

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or a period of unmitigated risks.

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The walls are coming down everywhere and
it's difficult to not think about this,

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being so close to it, here in Berlin,

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25 years ago, these walls coming down.

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But it's not just about physical walls
coming down,

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it's about mental walls,
it's about financial walls,

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it's about technological walls.

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All the walls are coming down,
and it's that

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which makes this the most exciting century 
in the history of humanity.

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It changes all of our lives
in surprising ways.

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And it's certainly changed mine.

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I was living in Paris 
when this wall came down.

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I didn't imagine that it would touch me
personally.

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I thought it was about Eastern Europe,
about the Cold War, about something else.

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But within 6 months, I would, 
much to my surprise,

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I was invited to have dinner with
President Mandela in Paris.

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He wasn't president then, 
he had just been released from prison.

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But he was released 
because the Cold War ended.

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And the defining feature of this period
we live in, our lives,

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is that what happens elsewhere will
dramatically affect us in new ways.

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It's this change that results 
from the walls coming down.

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And it's this change that will shape
education going forward

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and technological progress.

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And of course, the other fundamental 
period of -- in this time --

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is technology, technology
which got off the ground

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at the same time as the Berlin Wall
came down, over 25 years,

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this exponential growth in
virtual connectivity.

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And now we have a world of 5 billion
literate, educated people

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whereas we had a world, 
only 30 years ago,

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of well less than a billion 
connected people.

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Four billion more literate
connected people in the world,

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and this is the engine of change,

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where the people in the slums of Mumbai,
Soweto, Sao Paulo,

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or in apartments in Berlin,

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they will contribute to change 
in surprising new ways.

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And they're coming together.

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There is a release of individual genius.

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If you believe in the random distribution
of exceptional capabilities, which I do,

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there is just more people out there,
educated, connected, giving, learning.

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But I also believe in collective genius,

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the capabilities of people 
coming together,

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to form teams, 
to learn from each other

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through the methods that 
we heard about this morning.

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and in other ways.

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So new cures for cancer being developed
on 24-hour cycles around the world.

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My lab in Oxford, doing this with people 
in Beijing and San Francisco and Palo Alto

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and all over, in real time.

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There is no sleep on innovation any more.

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And that's the power, the engine,
which brings change.

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So if you think you've seen 
a lot of change

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be ready for much more surprises.

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This is the slowest time in history
you will know.

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It's going to get faster,
the pace of change greater,

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the surprises more intense.

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It's always going to be

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more and more difficult 
to predict what's next.

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Uncertainty will grow because
the pace of change is growing.

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Because the walls have come down,

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there are two billion more people 
in the world since 1990.

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And that's because ideas have traveled,
simple ideas,

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like washing your hands prevents
contagious diseases;

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really complicated ideas
like those embedded in vaccines

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in new cures for cancer
and many other things.

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Two billion more people coming together,
most of them now urbanized,

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and even those that aren't
physically together,

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virtually together.

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A quite extraordinary moment
in human history,

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one where we've come together
as a community,

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like we were 150,000 years ago,
when we lived in villages together,

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our ancestors in East Africa,
and then dispersed around the world

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and now, reconnected.

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And it's this reconnection, which
I believe, gives us the potential.

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But do we learn from it?

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And are we able to think of ourselves
in new ways,

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because we're connecting in new ways?

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Is this wall coming down changing the way
we are and we think?

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Or do we still think like individualists
in our nation states,

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pursuing our own self-interest
and those of our countries,

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not realizing that now,
we are in a different game?

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Now we're in a game in which
we have to cooperate,

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where we have to think about others,

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where our actions, for the first time,
spill over in dramatic new ways

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and affect people 
on the other side of the planet.

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This pace of education means that 
not only are we liberating ourselves,

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but we're liberating people from
all sorts of past habits.

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And this change is leading 
to quick changes in social norms.

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Acceptance of gay marriage 
is one of those,

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but there'll be many, many, many others.

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And so, what we think about 
as normal today

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will seem very strange 
in a few years' time:

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this pace of change driven by education,

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more doctorates being created 
in China now

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than in the rest of the world 
put together every year,

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more scientists alive today

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than all the scientists 
that ever lived in history,

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more literate people alive today

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than all the literate people 
that ever lived in history.

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This is the engine of change.

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But it's not simply about 
more and more progress.

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It's not simply that we know

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that this is going to get 
better and better.

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It's about what's next.

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We don't know what the future holds.

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We live in this extraordinary moment 
of our lives

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where we've seen exponential growth
in incomes: that's red.

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And we seen this most rapid 
increase in populations,

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and income growth, even more rapid
than population growth, which is why

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people have escaped poverty at a pace
that has never happened in history.

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Despite the world's population increasing
by two billion over the last 25 years,

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the number of desperately poor people
has gone down by about 300 million.

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This has never happened before.

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This is an incredible time, by far 
the best time to be alive.

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Just while you're here, your average 
life expectancy should increase

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by about 10 hours.

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That's the pace of progress:

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what you're learning,
and what's happening in the labs.

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And it's that which makes me 
incredibly optimistic.

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This is the age of discovery,
this is the new Renaissance.

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This is a period of creativity
and technological change

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which hasn't been seen for 500 years.

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This is from my stem cell lab
in the Oxford Martin School:

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the lab technician's skin
turned into a heart cell.

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And this is one of the 
extraordinary things that's happening

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that makes one so excited 
about the future.

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A future of rising life expectancy,
so children being born today

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in Berlin or elsewhere in Europe,
will have life expectancies well over 100,

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and not having to worry about the things
that I worry about,

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like Alzheimer's, Parkinson's and dementia.

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But what skills are they learning today
that will help them shape this future,

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prepare for it, and will still be relevant
in a hundred years time?

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It's those skills that you have 
the responsibility to help shape.

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We can imagine this glorious future,
an extraordinary time in human history.

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But we can also realize

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that it could come very, very badly
at stuck.

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I looked at the Renaissance 
for inspiration

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to try and understand how people
interpreted these choices.

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That was a period of 
creative exceptionalism,

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scientific exceptionalism.

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And we think today of the iconic figures,
the Michelangelos, the Da Vincis,

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the Copernicuses,

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discovering the earth went round the sun,
not the other way round,

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fundamentally changing our understanding
of ourselves in the universe

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in ways that will happen 
in our lifetimes.

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Fundamental changes 
which lead to Humanism,

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Enlightenment and many, 
many other things,

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spurred by technologies.

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Then, it was the Gutenberg press.

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Simple ideas travel very rapidly.

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Until then only monks 
could read and write,

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in Latin, in their monasteries.

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Less than half of 1% of the world
was literate.

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There was nothing to read 
-- and it was in Latin.

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And then, this invention lead
to a whole new way of thinking.

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Ideas traveled, people could learn
in their own languages,

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and we had the Renaissance.

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We also had the development 
of nationalism

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because people could identify.

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and of course, massive 
technological push-back.

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The Bonfire of the Vanities, 
the burning of books,

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not far from here and across Europe.

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Destruction of presses,
religious fundamentalism,

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extremism,
religious wars for 150 years.

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Now if you recall those curves I put up,

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of the long trajectory of income growth
and population growth,

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but the Renaissance did not figure.

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It was a non-event, 
it lead to no improvements

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in people's welfare in Europe or beyond.

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Are we different?

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Can we embrace our technologies in ways
that lead to sustained progress?

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And there are two things I worry about
in this respect.

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First, while the walls have gone down
between societies,

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within societies, 
the walls are going up everywhere.

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All countries are experiencing 
rising inequality.

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Why is this?

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It's because the pace of progress 
is so fast at the frontier

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that this process of integration
-- some call it globalization --

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has led to such rapid change
that if you aren't on the frontier,

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if you don't have the skills, 
the mobility, the attitude to change,

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to adapt, to grab new things,
you're left further and further behind.

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If you're in the wrong place, 
with the wrong skills at the wrong time,

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or you're too old,
you're left further and further behind.

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And so we see in all societies 
rising inequality.

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And some people have been able to capture
the goods of globalization.

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They've been able to park their money,

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whether they are a corporation 
in Bermuda or somewhere,

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or an individual in Monaco 
or Lichtenstein or Luxembourg.

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And so governments are becoming 
less and less able

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to tax their citizens 
and tax their corporates

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and less able to fund education,
health, infrastructure,

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and the other things we need.

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And the second big problem
of this integration process

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is: when things connect,

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unfortunately,
not only good stuff connects.

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Rarely, bad stuff connects too.

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And so the question is how do we have 
this complex, dense, intertwined system

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without becoming overwhelmed by it?

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Are we able to manage
our interdependencies

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in ways that will be sustained
and benefit us,

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or will they overwhelm us?

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And this is both the intended
consequences which lead

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to unintended bads.

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Our intended consequence of using
more antibiotics around the world

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leading to antibiotic resistance.

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Or as our energy growth grows
around the world

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because people are escaping poverty,
leading to climate change.

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Or as our resource use increases
because people are consuming more food,

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leading to resource depletion.

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And the unintended consequences,
banks which spread around the globe

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becoming centers of cascading risk
and financial crisis.

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Airports spreading pandemics, what I call
the butterfly defect of globalization.

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The spreading of risk is not a new idea.

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We think in England that a rat coming
off a ship in Liverpool

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might have killed half the British
population in the Black Death.

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Early globalization leading 
to systemic risk.

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But what's new is the pace
and scale of the change.

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So the swine flu that starts 
in Mexico City

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in 160 countries in thirty days.

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And the emerging infections group
in the Oxford Martin School

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has modeled spread of this
with airline traffic

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and shown it exactly replicates.

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So the super-spreaders of the good
of globalization

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like JFK, Heathrow, Frankfurt, 
and other great airports

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become the super-spreaders of the bads,
in this case, pandemics.

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And in the cybersphere, of course,
we see this dramatically,

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that anything can be instantaneously
elsewhere, be it good or be it bad.

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In finance, we've seen a dramatic 
indication of this,

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this collapsing system starting 
from a subprime crisis in the US

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leading to 100 million people laid off
in work from work around the world.

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So what happens somewhere
dramatically affecting people

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on the other side of the world
in the same way that my life

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was shaped, but sometimes
with disastrous consequences.

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And what the financial system also teaches
us is the rising power of individuals.

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These new technologies give individuals
simply unprecedented powers.

239
00:13:45,056 --> 00:13:47,836
Barings Bank had existed for 200 years.

240
00:13:48,353 --> 00:13:53,006
It had withstood the most amazing
technological, political, and other changes,

241
00:13:53,006 --> 00:13:58,774
and one young man, Nick Leeson, 
having some fun, a bit of trading,

242
00:13:58,774 --> 00:13:59,934
managed to bring it down.

243
00:13:59,934 --> 00:14:03,470
And the same thing almost happened
in Société Générale with Jérôme Kerviel,

244
00:14:03,470 --> 00:14:06,114
JP Morgan, UBS, and many others.

245
00:14:06,114 --> 00:14:09,798
We see that these individuals
now have power in new ways.

246
00:14:10,177 --> 00:14:14,870
And of course, individuals can also,
in new ways, develop biopathogens

247
00:14:14,870 --> 00:14:18,808
using a DNA sequencing which
is going down exponentially in price,

248
00:14:19,079 --> 00:14:21,842
a single individual now
can build something,

249
00:14:21,842 --> 00:14:24,489
using a technology like a drone 
to distribute it,

250
00:14:25,295 --> 00:14:28,743
and kill perhaps tens, if not hundreds, 
of millions of people.

251
00:14:28,997 --> 00:14:33,723
This new capability, this new power
of individuals has changed

252
00:14:34,382 --> 00:14:38,903
so that nation states are becoming
less and less powerful

253
00:14:39,257 --> 00:14:41,294
relative to the power of individuals.

254
00:14:41,294 --> 00:14:44,110
And there are seven billion of us
growing to nine billion

255
00:14:44,110 --> 00:14:45,864
over the next 35 years.

256
00:14:46,734 --> 00:14:49,526
Within the cybersphere,
we see this dramatically,

257
00:14:49,736 --> 00:14:52,659
how small groups can cause mayhem,

258
00:14:52,659 --> 00:14:55,129
steal all our records, 
open our bank accounts,

259
00:14:55,129 --> 00:14:57,219
they'll be opening our front door locks,

260
00:14:57,219 --> 00:15:00,719
controlling our vehicle-to-vehicle 
communication, etc.

261
00:15:01,377 --> 00:15:07,302
Understanding how we build systems
which liberate us,

262
00:15:08,127 --> 00:15:12,807
and yet we do not become slaves 
or vulnerable to, is the central question.

263
00:15:13,531 --> 00:15:17,928
Can we create interdependent systems
where we are in control,

264
00:15:17,928 --> 00:15:19,358
and what does that mean?

265
00:15:19,680 --> 00:15:25,269
And that education process requires
a new understanding of responsibility.

266
00:15:25,631 --> 00:15:29,284
As these technologies pervade 
intoour bodies, on our bodies

267
00:15:29,284 --> 00:15:30,776
and everything we do,

268
00:15:30,776 --> 00:15:32,367
it becomes more and more important.

269
00:15:32,367 --> 00:15:35,282
Trust, integrity, judgment,

270
00:15:35,772 --> 00:15:39,207
these old things become 
more and more important.

271
00:15:39,520 --> 00:15:45,005
The financial crisis was characterized
by a number of remarkable things.

272
00:15:46,587 --> 00:15:52,298
Over 250,000 extremely well-paid
people in the central banks of the world

273
00:15:52,848 --> 00:15:58,447
in the IMF and other institutions
with this enormous amount of data

274
00:15:58,842 --> 00:16:00,309
do not see it coming.

275
00:16:01,287 --> 00:16:04,114
Too much data, too little integrity.

276
00:16:04,524 --> 00:16:06,641
And as machines begin to take our jobs

277
00:16:06,641 --> 00:16:11,523
-- and one of my groups in the Oxford
Martin School has said that 47% of US jobs

278
00:16:11,523 --> 00:16:15,112
will be lost to machine intelligence
over the next 20 years --

279
00:16:15,357 --> 00:16:19,578
people will increasingly see
machine intelligence as a threat

280
00:16:19,578 --> 00:16:23,316
not only to their bank accounts
and other systems,

281
00:16:23,316 --> 00:16:25,683
but to their jobs and to their careers.

282
00:16:25,970 --> 00:16:30,624
And so, how do we create education
systems where we are not vulnerable

283
00:16:31,278 --> 00:16:32,980
to automation taking our jobs?

284
00:16:32,980 --> 00:16:36,619
And the answer is, we need to do things
which are not automatable.

285
00:16:36,895 --> 00:16:38,156
What does that mean?

286
00:16:38,403 --> 00:16:45,444
It means creativity, dexterity, 
empathy, judgment

287
00:16:46,139 --> 00:16:49,948
and that's what will keep us 
different from machines

288
00:16:49,948 --> 00:16:51,907
for at least the next 50 years.

289
00:16:52,777 --> 00:16:57,492
So, creating an environment where 
machines complement our abilities,

290
00:16:57,782 --> 00:17:00,067
help us, do many of the things

291
00:17:00,067 --> 00:17:04,267
that are really, in many ways, 
inhumane for people to be doing,

292
00:17:04,665 --> 00:17:06,931
dangerous and others;

293
00:17:07,587 --> 00:17:10,870
help us be more effective, 
but don't supplant us.

294
00:17:11,341 --> 00:17:13,628
Being in Germany, we're reminded always

295
00:17:13,628 --> 00:17:17,603
that it's not that technologies exist
that people decide to adopt them.

296
00:17:17,857 --> 00:17:19,471
It's society's attitude.

297
00:17:19,471 --> 00:17:23,204
Germany has banned nuclear power,
It has banned GMOs.

298
00:17:23,530 --> 00:17:26,318
Many other places 
embrace these technologies.

299
00:17:27,075 --> 00:17:29,832
It's what we feel about these technologies
that matters.

300
00:17:29,832 --> 00:17:34,368
It's how we feel we can control them,
whether we feel that we're on top,

301
00:17:34,635 --> 00:17:37,363
which will shape the way 
that societies adopt them.

302
00:17:37,363 --> 00:17:41,753
And so, in education, it seems 
absolutely vital that we understand them.

303
00:17:41,753 --> 00:17:45,048
People need to understand
what genetic modification is.

304
00:17:45,048 --> 00:17:48,632
People need to understand
what DNA sequencing is.

305
00:17:48,632 --> 00:17:53,890
People need to understand these new, 
extremely powerful technologies,

306
00:17:53,890 --> 00:17:58,988
which will change the way we are
and the choices we face going forward.

307
00:17:58,988 --> 00:18:03,845
There will be societal choices:
do we want to create superhumans, or not?

308
00:18:04,079 --> 00:18:06,677
And if others do it, 
what is our attitude to that?

309
00:18:06,944 --> 00:18:11,019
These are choices that we will face,
let alone the next generation.

310
00:18:11,019 --> 00:18:14,346
So this handshake, 
this understanding of technology,

311
00:18:14,346 --> 00:18:18,346
the literacy becomes 
more and more important,

312
00:18:18,346 --> 00:18:20,154
as well as the interconnectivity.

313
00:18:22,060 --> 00:18:26,896
As we will become wealthier,
as we will become more connected,

314
00:18:27,696 --> 00:18:32,076
the spillovers of our choices
get stronger and stronger.

315
00:18:32,636 --> 00:18:36,732
And we see this in many, many areas.
We see --

316
00:18:37,311 --> 00:18:41,459
-- sorry, I just want to go back to the 
slide before with the video, if I may --

317
00:18:43,144 --> 00:18:51,935
(people arguing animatedly around
a big tuna in Japanese, then clapping)

318
00:18:51,935 --> 00:18:54,691
(Goldin) This is the tuna market in Tokyo.

319
00:18:54,691 --> 00:18:59,184
This tuna was sold for about 1.5 million Euro.

320
00:18:59,674 --> 00:19:05,125
This the market's response to the scarcity
of a natural resource.

321
00:19:05,771 --> 00:19:08,876
The price goes up, the tuna don't know
how much they're worth, of course.

322
00:19:08,876 --> 00:19:10,928
They don't reproduce more 
when they're worth more.

323
00:19:11,488 --> 00:19:15,062
Hi-tech fishermen go and chase
the remaining tuna

324
00:19:15,062 --> 00:19:16,463
and you get extinction.

325
00:19:16,463 --> 00:19:20,237
And the same thing, of course, with rhino
and any natural resource.

326
00:19:20,432 --> 00:19:23,018
Natural resources don't understand 
markets.

327
00:19:23,503 --> 00:19:25,458
they are irrelevant to them.

328
00:19:25,879 --> 00:19:29,994
and so, as we go forward and we have
a market system which determines choice,

329
00:19:29,994 --> 00:19:31,313
on the one hand,

330
00:19:31,313 --> 00:19:33,024
and more and more people 
with more wealth

331
00:19:33,024 --> 00:19:35,539
are claiming resources 
through this system.

332
00:19:35,539 --> 00:19:39,645
But on the other hand, we have 
the supply of natural resources,

333
00:19:39,645 --> 00:19:41,440
determined in totally different ways,

334
00:19:41,809 --> 00:19:45,191
we have a very serious problem 
of extinction.

335
00:19:46,657 --> 00:19:48,929
Governments are not 
very smart at this either.

336
00:19:48,929 --> 00:19:53,765
Thinking short term, 
they extract resource,

337
00:19:54,205 --> 00:19:55,922
often for the good of their people,

338
00:19:55,922 --> 00:19:58,415
but collectively, in the long term, 
a disaster.

339
00:19:58,415 --> 00:19:59,637
This is the Aral Sea.

340
00:19:59,937 --> 00:20:02,776
Peop-- countries, six countries
doing the right thing,

341
00:20:02,776 --> 00:20:04,623
drawing water to feed their people.

342
00:20:04,958 --> 00:20:07,245
Collectively, a disaster.

343
00:20:07,520 --> 00:20:10,609
The examples of success 
-- and the Mediterranean is one --

344
00:20:10,609 --> 00:20:15,630
where citizens, scientists, politicians,
civil society movements

345
00:20:15,630 --> 00:20:18,160
came together and saved this.

346
00:20:18,160 --> 00:20:22,038
And with climate change, of course,
we have this dramatic problem.

347
00:20:23,923 --> 00:20:27,759
What's happening in Paris this week
is of huge significance

348
00:20:28,092 --> 00:20:29,842
to the future of the planet.

349
00:20:30,208 --> 00:20:33,906
But it's not enough;
we need to do much more.

350
00:20:34,776 --> 00:20:37,855
And we need to do it in a way 
that allows people around the world

351
00:20:37,855 --> 00:20:39,653
to benefit from the things that we have.

352
00:20:39,653 --> 00:20:43,673
We've created 90% of the problem
in the rich countries

353
00:20:44,633 --> 00:20:50,559
but 80%, already 70% of the flows, (check)
growing to 80 over the next 15 years,

354
00:20:50,561 --> 00:20:52,827
will be coming from emerging markets.

355
00:20:52,827 --> 00:20:55,744
So how do we let the rest of the world
clime the energy curve,

356
00:20:56,324 --> 00:21:01,238
while ensuring we keep global warming
to below 2 degrees?

357
00:21:01,365 --> 00:21:08,335
These collective decisions, increasingly,
will shape the way that the planet moves.

358
00:21:08,335 --> 00:21:10,094
Who's going to do this?

359
00:21:11,000 --> 00:21:15,898
This set of institutions is totally unfit
for purpose.

360
00:21:15,898 --> 00:21:19,274
It was built in a different era,
with different power structures.

361
00:21:20,724 --> 00:21:23,568
It is unable to meet 
the challenges of our time,

362
00:21:23,568 --> 00:21:27,727
and in some areas, like cyber
there is no institution at all.

363
00:21:27,727 --> 00:21:31,648
Small changes, 
largely rearranging the furniture.

364
00:21:31,648 --> 00:21:34,250
(laughter)

365
00:21:34,668 --> 00:21:39,616
(Goldin) So I think of us as nations,
like in a cabin within a big ocean liner,

366
00:21:39,616 --> 00:21:45,555
each in our little cabin, drifting
with no captain, on Planet Earth's deck.

367
00:21:46,416 --> 00:21:51,361
Again, part of this is the result
of extroardinarily positive changes.

368
00:21:51,778 --> 00:21:56,332
We're no longer in a world
where twelve white men, smoking cigars,

369
00:21:56,332 --> 00:21:58,939
could sit in their room and decide
the earth's future,

370
00:21:59,098 --> 00:22:01,089
as they did after the Second World War.

371
00:22:01,595 --> 00:22:05,878
New power balances mean we have 
to have a transition in power.

372
00:22:05,878 --> 00:22:09,292
But we're in this dangerous time
where the old powers no longer rule

373
00:22:09,292 --> 00:22:12,841
and the new powers have not been able
to step up to the plate.

374
00:22:12,841 --> 00:22:17,112
So it's a time of transition, it's a time 
where the big institutions,

375
00:22:17,112 --> 00:22:20,679
the best of them like the IMF,
have proved themselves

376
00:22:21,251 --> 00:22:23,518
totally unfit for purpose.

377
00:22:23,905 --> 00:22:27,960
It requires citizens, it requires 
thinking in new ways

378
00:22:27,960 --> 00:22:29,491
to overcome this problem.

379
00:22:29,491 --> 00:22:31,480
Thinking which overcomes short-termism,

380
00:22:31,717 --> 00:22:36,106
be it in business or 
be it in our own decisions.

381
00:22:36,106 --> 00:22:39,259
We need to think long, 
because we're here for the long term

382
00:22:39,259 --> 00:22:43,191
and the kids of today will be here
for at least the next century.

383
00:22:44,047 --> 00:22:48,831
How we do this and how we realize
that our own decisions, increasingly,

384
00:22:49,291 --> 00:22:52,691
are entangled with others'
is of course the critical question.

385
00:22:52,875 --> 00:22:56,316
What we see in the politics
is a reversal.

386
00:22:57,448 --> 00:23:01,551
People feel the future is scary,
uncertain.

387
00:23:01,846 --> 00:23:06,511
They feel that openness and connectivity
makes them more vulnerable,

388
00:23:06,511 --> 00:23:07,641
and they're right.

389
00:23:07,893 --> 00:23:11,296
And so, we see this political revulsion
with extremism growing

390
00:23:11,685 --> 00:23:15,576
in all countries, but certainly in Europe
and in the US.

391
00:23:15,899 --> 00:23:20,176
People wanting to return to an age
which they romanticize as being better:

392
00:23:21,288 --> 00:23:24,287
protectionist, nationalist, xenophobic.

393
00:23:25,046 --> 00:23:26,993
It's profoundly misguided.

394
00:23:27,637 --> 00:23:30,223
In order to ensure that 
we can manage this world,

395
00:23:30,444 --> 00:23:32,859
we need to be more connected, not less.

396
00:23:32,859 --> 00:23:37,224
We need to ensure that we're able
to come together, but be protected;

397
00:23:37,921 --> 00:23:43,423
resilient, thinking together, and insuring
that through our decisions

398
00:23:43,423 --> 00:23:46,971
we not only protect our own futures

399
00:23:47,419 --> 00:23:50,521
but protect those of others 
and the planet.

400
00:23:50,733 --> 00:24:01,279
Thank you.
(Applause)

401
00:24:01,279 --> 00:24:04,555
If we can do all that, we can rock on
to a happy old age.

402
00:24:04,555 --> 00:24:06,642
(Moderator) Ian, (laughs) 
thank you very much indeed.

403
00:24:06,642 --> 00:24:09,444
There's a lot of comments here, but
there is one theme that is emerging.

404
00:24:09,444 --> 00:24:15,241
Let me just give you this one comment
from Anastasia Brewer (check), I think it was?

405
00:24:15,646 --> 00:24:17,881
It's just nipped out as --

406
00:24:18,324 --> 00:24:22,195
I want to pick up actually, really,
on what David said right at the beginning

407
00:24:22,195 --> 00:24:24,876
about "Don't be afraid, 
don't be in denial"

408
00:24:25,075 --> 00:24:26,979
and this need for change,
and what you said about

409
00:24:26,979 --> 00:24:31,258
the new normal will feel very strange
in a few years' time,

410
00:24:31,258 --> 00:24:34,849
because Jeff Kortenbosch
makes this comment:

411
00:24:34,849 --> 00:24:38,527
"A key skill set should be about 
adapting to rapid change,

412
00:24:38,527 --> 00:24:41,177
"to learn, unlearn and relearn."

413
00:24:41,177 --> 00:24:45,515
And the debate tonight is going to be
about 21st century skills

414
00:24:45,515 --> 00:24:48,025
are not being taught in schools
and should be.

415
00:24:48,025 --> 00:24:51,196
Now, much of the work in the Martin School
is about behavior

416
00:24:51,787 --> 00:24:53,637
and about understanding 
how the brain works

417
00:24:53,637 --> 00:24:56,457
and adaptability and the fears of 
the second (check) generation

418
00:24:56,457 --> 00:24:58,806
to be able to adapt to this new shift,

419
00:24:58,806 --> 00:25:02,543
which is accelerating probably even faster
than most realize.

420
00:25:03,118 --> 00:25:07,130
How optimistic can we be that actually,
our human capacity can cope with this?

421
00:25:08,113 --> 00:25:10,143
(Goldin) Yes, this is 
the most difficult question.

422
00:25:10,753 --> 00:25:13,848
My sense is that the world is moving
at a revolutionary speed

423
00:25:14,738 --> 00:25:20,311
and we and our institutions are
evolutionary very slow adapters.

424
00:25:20,937 --> 00:25:25,869
My hope is that this concentration
of knowledge which is being unleashed

425
00:25:25,869 --> 00:25:29,253
through the new connectivity and literacy
will allow us to leapfrog.

426
00:25:29,253 --> 00:25:33,129
And we do see that, 
and we see signs of this in so many ways.

427
00:25:33,129 --> 00:25:35,537
So there's all sorts of exciting things,

428
00:25:35,537 --> 00:25:37,930
like the things we heard about 
earlier today,

429
00:25:37,930 --> 00:25:39,276
that are happening.

430
00:25:39,597 --> 00:25:42,715
The big question, and I think it's going
to be partly a question that's resolved

431
00:25:42,715 --> 00:25:46,643
in Paris this week, is can we learn
to cooperate on these big challenges.

432
00:25:46,643 --> 00:25:49,841
Are we able to give up 
some independence and sovereignty

433
00:25:49,841 --> 00:25:52,559
as individuals or as countries,

434
00:25:52,559 --> 00:25:55,408
to ensure that collectively, 
we'll all have a bigger future.

435
00:25:55,408 --> 00:25:57,726
Are we able take longer term--
(Moderator) What about the .... (check)

436
00:25:57,726 --> 00:26:00,724
and the ability and -- we've only got
about 3 minutes to run now --

437
00:26:00,724 --> 00:26:02,916
but what about the ability 
of the human being

438
00:26:02,916 --> 00:26:06,995
to cope with this enormity, particularly
to adapt to the speed

439
00:26:06,995 --> 00:26:08,365
that the next generation,

440
00:26:08,365 --> 00:26:10,812
through the education process,
will be expecting?

441
00:26:10,812 --> 00:26:12,213
(Goldin) Humans can do anything.

442
00:26:13,168 --> 00:26:19,162
In my college at Oxford Balliol, we had
a third of the college giving their lives

443
00:26:19,162 --> 00:26:20,231
in the First World War,

444
00:26:20,231 --> 00:26:24,090
and about 20% of the college giving 
their lives in the Second World War

445
00:26:24,090 --> 00:26:26,477
to defend ideals of freedom.

446
00:26:27,710 --> 00:26:30,524
People are prepared to make the most
extraordinary sacrifices,

447
00:26:30,524 --> 00:26:32,435
to change their lives fundamentally,

448
00:26:32,435 --> 00:26:34,740
if they believe that 
it's the right thing to do.

449
00:26:34,740 --> 00:26:36,038
(Moderator) Can they do it?
(Goldin) Yes, they can.

450
00:26:36,038 --> 00:26:39,024
We've done it before, we can do it again:
I'm absolutely convinced.

451
00:26:39,024 --> 00:26:42,375
(Applause)

452
00:26:42,375 --> 00:26:44,614
(Moderator) But again, I'm picking up and
trying to bring together

453
00:26:44,614 --> 00:26:47,576
a number of themes here, but that --
what David said right at the beginning:

454
00:26:47,576 --> 00:26:49,542
"Don't be afraid, don't be in denial."

455
00:26:50,022 --> 00:26:54,142
That is achievable, is it, that kind of
reversal with this scale of change,

456
00:26:54,142 --> 00:26:56,325
and the shift, 
the acceleration taking place?

457
00:26:57,529 --> 00:27:01,731
(Goldin) Yes. I think one has to 
open one's eyes

458
00:27:01,731 --> 00:27:04,345
before one can see 
what's happening around.

459
00:27:04,345 --> 00:27:07,410
And this pace of change is really 
what it's about.

460
00:27:07,410 --> 00:27:09,570
Are we able to appreciate

461
00:27:09,570 --> 00:27:12,123
this extraordinary moment in history
we're in?

462
00:27:12,123 --> 00:27:15,831
This age of discovery, are we able
to recognize it for what it is,

463
00:27:15,831 --> 00:27:18,368
and seize the opportunities
that come with it?

464
00:27:19,044 --> 00:27:21,997
(Moderator) Yes, I'm going to stop there.
I'm afraid you - because you ran too much,

465
00:27:21,997 --> 00:27:26,476
25 minutes, so the 30 minutes is up, so
I have to stop you at that point

466
00:27:26,476 --> 00:27:29,352
because some people have begun to leave,
there's coffee and everything else

467
00:27:29,352 --> 00:27:30,872
and a very tight schedule.

468
00:27:30,872 --> 00:27:35,524
Remember, this is going to be part of 
a big debate later tonight

469
00:27:35,524 --> 00:27:39,762
and also, let me underscore that 
everyone here can talk more about it.

470
00:27:39,762 --> 00:27:42,430
And indeed, David Price is signing 
his book,

471
00:27:42,430 --> 00:27:47,089
"How will we work, live and learn
in the future?" at 13:05,

472
00:27:47,089 --> 00:27:50,246
and that's in Potsdam 3,

473
00:27:50,246 --> 00:27:55,774
and "Information doesn't want to be free",
Cory is going to be speaking about that

474
00:27:55,774 --> 00:28:00,274
on copyright in the digital age, as well,
at 12 o'clock.

475
00:28:00,678 --> 00:28:05,126
So, plenty: we've really burdened you
with an enormous number of concepts.

476
00:28:05,126 --> 00:28:07,017
And David, can I tell you as well,

477
00:28:07,017 --> 00:28:11,433
there are large numbers of people 
who sent messages, admiring your battle

478
00:28:11,433 --> 00:28:13,460
and how you've won your battle on health.

479
00:28:13,670 --> 00:28:16,733
Can I thank you all very much indeed, 
and also for contributing

480
00:28:16,733 --> 00:28:20,321
some important comments and questions
from the floor.

481
00:28:20,665 --> 00:28:23,258
It's coffee time.
(Applause)

482
00:28:23,258 --> 00:28:29,488
[Recordings of this session will be 
uploaded to www.online-educa.com] 28:31