0:00:00.000,0:00:03.136
(Ian Goldin) Great, thank you: it's [br]wonderful to be with educators

0:00:03.136,0:00:06.377
who care about the intersection[br]of learning and technology,

0:00:06.377,0:00:08.076
because that's going to shape the future.

0:00:08.388,0:00:11.247
Whether we're able [br]to get this right or not

0:00:11.247,0:00:14.475
will determine whether we have[br]a glorious 21st century

0:00:14.730,0:00:17.346
or a period of unmitigated risks.

0:00:17.808,0:00:21.502
The walls are coming down everywhere and[br]it's difficult to not think about this,

0:00:21.502,0:00:23.945
being so close to it, here in Berlin,

0:00:23.952,0:00:26.898
25 years ago, these walls coming down.

0:00:26.898,0:00:29.420
But it's not just about physical walls[br]coming down,

0:00:29.840,0:00:32.911
it's about mental walls,[br]it's about financial walls,

0:00:32.911,0:00:34.643
it's about technological walls.

0:00:34.657,0:00:38.202
All the walls are coming down,[br]and it's that

0:00:38.202,0:00:41.961
which makes this the most exciting century [br]in the history of humanity.

0:00:42.318,0:00:45.658
It changes all of our lives[br]in surprising ways.

0:00:45.891,0:00:47.775
And it's certainly changed mine.

0:00:47.789,0:00:50.223
I was living in Paris [br]when this wall came down.

0:00:50.591,0:00:53.198
I didn't imagine that it would touch me[br]personally.

0:00:53.198,0:00:57.218
I thought it was about Eastern Europe,[br]about the Cold War, about something else.

0:00:57.218,0:01:01.278
But within 6 months, I would, [br]much to my surprise,

0:01:01.278,0:01:06.275
I was invited to have dinner with[br]President Mandela in Paris.

0:01:06.275,0:01:09.197
He wasn't president then, [br]he had just been released from prison.

0:01:09.625,0:01:12.250
But he was released [br]because the Cold War ended.

0:01:13.074,0:01:16.512
And the defining feature of this period[br]we live in, our lives,

0:01:17.522,0:01:21.858
is that what happens elsewhere will[br]dramatically affect us in new ways.

0:01:21.858,0:01:25.335
It's this change that results [br]from the walls coming down.

0:01:25.335,0:01:29.303
And it's this change that will shape[br]education going forward

0:01:29.303,0:01:30.966
and technological progress.

0:01:31.698,0:01:36.000
And of course, the other fundamental [br]period of -- in this time --

0:01:36.000,0:01:40.172
is technology, technology[br]which got off the ground

0:01:40.172,0:01:44.352
at the same time as the Berlin Wall[br]came down, over 25 years,

0:01:44.352,0:01:47.493
this exponential growth in[br]virtual connectivity.

0:01:48.585,0:01:53.405
And now we have a world of 5 billion[br]literate, educated people

0:01:53.405,0:01:55.795
whereas we had a world, [br]only 30 years ago,

0:01:55.795,0:01:58.711
of well less than a billion [br]connected people.

0:01:59.162,0:02:02.568
Four billion more literate[br]connected people in the world,

0:02:02.568,0:02:04.371
and this is the engine of change,

0:02:04.371,0:02:08.086
where the people in the slums of Mumbai,[br]Soweto, Sao Paulo,

0:02:10.159,0:02:11.833
or in apartments in Berlin,

0:02:11.833,0:02:14.973
they will contribute to change [br]in surprising new ways.

0:02:14.973,0:02:16.312
And they're coming together.

0:02:16.575,0:02:18.986
There is a release of individual genius.

0:02:18.986,0:02:24.030
If you believe in the random distribution[br]of exceptional capabilities, which I do,

0:02:24.030,0:02:29.036
there is just more people out there,[br]educated, connected, giving, learning.

0:02:29.036,0:02:31.448
But I also believe in collective genius,

0:02:31.448,0:02:33.689
the capabilities of people [br]coming together,

0:02:33.689,0:02:36.348
to form teams, [br]to learn from each other

0:02:37.322,0:02:40.634
through the methods that [br]we heard about this morning.

0:02:40.634,0:02:42.373
and in other ways.

0:02:42.373,0:02:46.529
So new cures for cancer being developed[br]on 24-hour cycles around the world.

0:02:46.529,0:02:52.622
My lab in Oxford, doing this with people [br]in Beijing and San Francisco and Palo Alto

0:02:52.622,0:02:54.791
and all over, in real time.

0:02:55.413,0:02:57.687
There is no sleep on innovation any more.

0:02:57.982,0:03:01.211
And that's the power, the engine,[br]which brings change.

0:03:01.211,0:03:03.029
So if you think you've seen [br]a lot of change

0:03:03.029,0:03:05.127
be ready for much more surprises.

0:03:05.127,0:03:08.080
This is the slowest time in history[br]you will know.

0:03:08.471,0:03:11.602
It's going to get faster,[br]the pace of change greater,

0:03:11.602,0:03:14.276
the surprises more intense.

0:03:14.657,0:03:16.537
It's always going to be

0:03:19.040,0:03:21.684
more and more difficult [br]to predict what's next.

0:03:21.684,0:03:25.267
Uncertainty will grow because[br]the pace of change is growing.

0:03:25.267,0:03:26.779
Because the walls have come down,

0:03:26.779,0:03:31.334
there are two billion more people [br]in the world since 1990.

0:03:31.937,0:03:34.478
And that's because ideas have traveled,[br]simple ideas,

0:03:34.478,0:03:38.039
like washing your hands prevents[br]contagious diseases;

0:03:38.039,0:03:41.906
really complicated ideas[br]like those embedded in vaccines

0:03:41.906,0:03:44.640
in new cures for cancer[br]and many other things.

0:03:44.967,0:03:49.240
Two billion more people coming together,[br]most of them now urbanized,

0:03:49.572,0:03:52.316
and even those that aren't[br]physically together,

0:03:52.316,0:03:53.781
virtually together.

0:03:53.791,0:03:56.283
A quite extraordinary moment[br]in human history,

0:03:56.283,0:03:59.650
one where we've come together[br]as a community,

0:04:00.660,0:04:05.597
like we were 150,000 years ago,[br]when we lived in villages together,

0:04:05.597,0:04:09.871
our ancestors in East Africa,[br]and then dispersed around the world

0:04:09.871,0:04:11.848
and now, reconnected.

0:04:11.848,0:04:15.988
And it's this reconnection, which[br]I believe, gives us the potential.

0:04:15.988,0:04:17.563
But do we learn from it?

0:04:17.563,0:04:20.160
And are we able to think of ourselves[br]in new ways,

0:04:20.160,0:04:22.207
because we're connecting in new ways?

0:04:22.396,0:04:27.428
Is this wall coming down changing the way[br]we are and we think?

0:04:27.428,0:04:31.194
Or do we still think like individualists[br]in our nation states,

0:04:31.194,0:04:34.984
pursuing our own self-interest[br]and those of our countries,

0:04:34.984,0:04:38.316
not realizing that now,[br]we are in a different game?

0:04:38.316,0:04:40.571
Now we're in a game in which[br]we have to cooperate,

0:04:40.571,0:04:42.448
where we have to think about others,

0:04:42.448,0:04:47.326
where our actions, for the first time,[br]spill over in dramatic new ways

0:04:47.326,0:04:50.189
and affect people [br]on the other side of the planet.

0:04:51.492,0:04:57.945
This pace of education means that [br]not only are we liberating ourselves,

0:04:57.945,0:05:02.218
but we're liberating people from[br]all sorts of past habits.

0:05:02.218,0:05:06.024
And this change is leading [br]to quick changes in social norms.

0:05:07.761,0:05:10.480
Acceptance of gay marriage [br]is one of those,

0:05:10.480,0:05:12.881
but there'll be many, many, many others.

0:05:12.881,0:05:15.566
And so, what we think about [br]as normal today

0:05:16.038,0:05:19.210
will seem very strange [br]in a few years' time:

0:05:19.463,0:05:23.267
this pace of change driven by education,

0:05:24.526,0:05:27.072
more doctorates being created [br]in China now

0:05:27.072,0:05:29.535
than in the rest of the world [br]put together every year,

0:05:29.535,0:05:31.299
more scientists alive today

0:05:31.299,0:05:33.349
than all the scientists [br]that ever lived in history,

0:05:33.349,0:05:35.306
more literate people alive today

0:05:35.306,0:05:37.656
than all the literate people [br]that ever lived in history.

0:05:37.656,0:05:39.597
This is the engine of change.

0:05:40.305,0:05:43.340
But it's not simply about [br]more and more progress.

0:05:43.340,0:05:45.277
It's not simply that we know

0:05:45.277,0:05:47.117
that this is going to get [br]better and better.

0:05:48.228,0:05:50.082
It's about what's next.

0:05:50.082,0:05:51.823
We don't know what the future holds.

0:05:51.823,0:05:55.027
We live in this extraordinary moment [br]of our lives

0:05:55.027,0:06:00.004
where we've seen exponential growth[br]in incomes: that's red.

0:06:00.459,0:06:03.850
And we seen this most rapid [br]increase in populations,

0:06:03.850,0:06:09.572
and income growth, even more rapid[br]than population growth, which is why

0:06:09.572,0:06:13.009
people have escaped poverty at a pace[br]that has never happened in history.

0:06:13.497,0:06:18.022
Despite the world's population increasing[br]by two billion over the last 25 years,

0:06:18.022,0:06:22.398
the number of desperately poor people[br]has gone down by about 300 million.

0:06:22.398,0:06:23.952
This has never happened before.

0:06:23.952,0:06:27.755
This is an incredible time, by far [br]the best time to be alive.

0:06:28.047,0:06:31.475
Just while you're here, your average [br]life expectancy should increase

0:06:31.475,0:06:32.875
by about 10 hours.

0:06:33.255,0:06:34.832
That's the pace of progress:

0:06:35.443,0:06:38.941
what you're learning,[br]and what's happening in the labs.

0:06:39.262,0:06:42.291
And it's that which makes me [br]incredibly optimistic.

0:06:42.291,0:06:45.966
This is the age of discovery,[br]this is the new Renaissance.

0:06:46.319,0:06:49.978
This is a period of creativity[br]and technological change

0:06:50.223,0:06:52.914
which hasn't been seen for 500 years.

0:06:52.914,0:06:55.932
This is from my stem cell lab[br]in the Oxford Martin School:

0:06:57.333,0:07:00.376
the lab technician's skin[br]turned into a heart cell.

0:07:00.692,0:07:03.410
And this is one of the [br]extraordinary things that's happening

0:07:04.063,0:07:07.254
that makes one so excited [br]about the future.

0:07:07.695,0:07:12.667
A future of rising life expectancy,[br]so children being born today

0:07:12.667,0:07:19.417
in Berlin or elsewhere in Europe,[br]will have life expectancies well over 100,

0:07:19.417,0:07:22.274
and not having to worry about the things[br]that I worry about,

0:07:22.274,0:07:25.029
like Alzheimer's, Parkinson's and dementia.

0:07:25.029,0:07:29.116
But what skills are they learning today[br]that will help them shape this future,

0:07:29.116,0:07:33.752
prepare for it, and will still be relevant[br]in a hundred years time?

0:07:34.284,0:07:38.320
It's those skills that you have [br]the responsibility to help shape.

0:07:38.680,0:07:43.877
We can imagine this glorious future,[br]an extraordinary time in human history.

0:07:44.388,0:07:45.901
But we can also realize

0:07:45.909,0:07:48.687
that it could come very, very badly[br]at stuck.

0:07:49.396,0:07:51.517
I looked at the Renaissance [br]for inspiration

0:07:51.517,0:07:55.345
to try and understand how people[br]interpreted these choices.

0:07:55.345,0:07:58.796
That was a period of [br]creative exceptionalism,

0:07:59.357,0:08:01.467
scientific exceptionalism.

0:08:01.467,0:08:06.017
And we think today of the iconic figures,[br]the Michelangelos, the Da Vincis,

0:08:06.017,0:08:07.596
the Copernicuses,

0:08:07.596,0:08:11.672
discovering the earth went round the sun,[br]not the other way round,

0:08:11.891,0:08:15.713
fundamentally changing our understanding[br]of ourselves in the universe

0:08:15.713,0:08:18.756
in ways that will happen [br]in our lifetimes.

0:08:19.340,0:08:22.717
Fundamental changes [br]which lead to Humanism,

0:08:23.093,0:08:26.938
Enlightenment and many, [br]many other things,

0:08:27.645,0:08:29.610
spurred by technologies.

0:08:29.610,0:08:32.523
Then, it was the Gutenberg press.

0:08:32.883,0:08:35.614
Simple ideas travel very rapidly.

0:08:36.204,0:08:38.318
Until then only monks [br]could read and write,

0:08:38.318,0:08:40.387
in Latin, in their monasteries.

0:08:40.387,0:08:43.179
Less than half of 1% of the world[br]was literate.

0:08:43.179,0:08:46.251
There was nothing to read [br]-- and it was in Latin.

0:08:46.765,0:08:51.175
And then, this invention lead[br]to a whole new way of thinking.

0:08:51.175,0:08:55.761
Ideas traveled, people could learn[br]in their own languages,

0:08:56.224,0:08:57.775
and we had the Renaissance.

0:08:58.512,0:09:00.807
We also had the development [br]of nationalism

0:09:01.313,0:09:03.294
because people could identify.

0:09:03.752,0:09:07.249
and of course, massive [br]technological push-back.

0:09:07.770,0:09:10.965
The Bonfire of the Vanities, [br]the burning of books,

0:09:11.267,0:09:13.920
not far from here and across Europe.

0:09:14.402,0:09:19.254
Destruction of presses,[br]religious fundamentalism,

0:09:19.254,0:09:22.851
extremism,[br]religious wars for 150 years.

0:09:22.851,0:09:24.968
Now if you recall those curves I put up,

0:09:24.968,0:09:28.493
of the long trajectory of income growth[br]and population growth,

0:09:28.785,0:09:31.034
but the Renaissance did not figure.

0:09:31.034,0:09:34.169
It was a non-event, [br]it lead to no improvements

0:09:34.169,0:09:37.524
in people's welfare in Europe or beyond.

0:09:37.885,0:09:39.005
Are we different?

0:09:39.311,0:09:44.588
Can we embrace our technologies in ways[br]that lead to sustained progress?

0:09:44.940,0:09:47.429
And there are two things I worry about[br]in this respect.

0:09:47.785,0:09:51.953
First, while the walls have gone down[br]between societies,

0:09:52.382,0:09:56.516
within societies, [br]the walls are going up everywhere.

0:09:56.516,0:10:00.164
All countries are experiencing [br]rising inequality.

0:10:00.456,0:10:01.576
Why is this?

0:10:02.129,0:10:06.259
It's because the pace of progress [br]is so fast at the frontier

0:10:06.740,0:10:10.385
that this process of integration[br]-- some call it globalization --

0:10:10.767,0:10:15.852
has led to such rapid change[br]that if you aren't on the frontier,

0:10:15.852,0:10:21.064
if you don't have the skills, [br]the mobility, the attitude to change,

0:10:22.054,0:10:27.741
to adapt, to grab new things,[br]you're left further and further behind.

0:10:27.741,0:10:31.696
If you're in the wrong place, [br]with the wrong skills at the wrong time,

0:10:31.696,0:10:35.696
or you're too old,[br]you're left further and further behind.

0:10:35.696,0:10:38.719
And so we see in all societies [br]rising inequality.

0:10:39.048,0:10:42.489
And some people have been able to capture[br]the goods of globalization.

0:10:43.049,0:10:44.825
They've been able to park their money,

0:10:44.825,0:10:47.245
whether they are a corporation [br]in Bermuda or somewhere,

0:10:47.245,0:10:50.893
or an individual in Monaco [br]or Lichtenstein or Luxembourg.

0:10:51.053,0:10:53.610
And so governments are becoming [br]less and less able

0:10:54.424,0:10:56.928
to tax their citizens [br]and tax their corporates

0:10:56.928,0:11:00.802
and less able to fund education,[br]health, infrastructure,

0:11:00.802,0:11:02.073
and the other things we need.

0:11:03.067,0:11:07.366
And the second big problem[br]of this integration process

0:11:07.366,0:11:09.198
is: when things connect,

0:11:09.430,0:11:12.316
unfortunately,[br]not only good stuff connects.

0:11:12.560,0:11:14.724
Rarely, bad stuff connects too.

0:11:15.858,0:11:21.213
And so the question is how do we have [br]this complex, dense, intertwined system

0:11:21.213,0:11:24.180
without becoming overwhelmed by it?

0:11:24.180,0:11:26.960
Are we able to manage[br]our interdependencies

0:11:26.960,0:11:29.867
in ways that will be sustained[br]and benefit us,

0:11:29.867,0:11:31.978
or will they overwhelm us?

0:11:31.978,0:11:36.224
And this is both the intended[br]consequences which lead

0:11:36.224,0:11:38.204
to unintended bads.

0:11:38.204,0:11:42.398
Our intended consequence of using[br]more antibiotics around the world

0:11:42.398,0:11:44.316
leading to antibiotic resistance.

0:11:44.610,0:11:46.479
Or as our energy growth grows[br]around the world

0:11:46.479,0:11:50.114
because people are escaping poverty,[br]leading to climate change.

0:11:50.544,0:11:54.674
Or as our resource use increases[br]because people are consuming more food,

0:11:54.931,0:11:56.697
leading to resource depletion.

0:11:56.925,0:12:02.467
And the unintended consequences,[br]banks which spread around the globe

0:12:02.467,0:12:06.231
becoming centers of cascading risk[br]and financial crisis.

0:12:06.573,0:12:12.648
Airports spreading pandemics, what I call[br]the butterfly defect of globalization.

0:12:13.635,0:12:15.786
The spreading of risk is not a new idea.

0:12:15.786,0:12:19.291
We think in England that a rat coming[br]off a ship in Liverpool

0:12:19.291,0:12:22.728
might have killed half the British[br]population in the Black Death.

0:12:22.975,0:12:25.950
Early globalization leading [br]to systemic risk.

0:12:26.247,0:12:29.058
But what's new is the pace[br]and scale of the change.

0:12:29.713,0:12:32.142
So the swine flu that starts [br]in Mexico City

0:12:32.142,0:12:35.914
in 160 countries in thirty days.

0:12:35.914,0:12:39.397
And the emerging infections group[br]in the Oxford Martin School

0:12:39.974,0:12:44.002
has modeled spread of this[br]with airline traffic

0:12:44.002,0:12:45.639
and shown it exactly replicates.

0:12:45.639,0:12:48.482
So the super-spreaders of the good[br]of globalization

0:12:48.970,0:12:53.604
like JFK, Heathrow, Frankfurt, [br]and other great airports

0:12:54.373,0:12:58.196
become the super-spreaders of the bads,[br]in this case, pandemics.

0:12:59.062,0:13:02.186
And in the cybersphere, of course,[br]we see this dramatically,

0:13:02.577,0:13:08.185
that anything can be instantaneously[br]elsewhere, be it good or be it bad.

0:13:08.523,0:13:11.477
In finance, we've seen a dramatic [br]indication of this,

0:13:11.477,0:13:16.431
this collapsing system starting [br]from a subprime crisis in the US

0:13:16.431,0:13:21.607
leading to 100 million people laid off[br]in work from work around the world.

0:13:21.996,0:13:24.805
So what happens somewhere[br]dramatically affecting people

0:13:24.805,0:13:27.844
on the other side of the world[br]in the same way that my life

0:13:27.844,0:13:31.804
was shaped, but sometimes[br]with disastrous consequences.

0:13:32.807,0:13:38.719
And what the financial system also teaches[br]us is the rising power of individuals.

0:13:38.945,0:13:44.486
These new technologies give individuals[br]simply unprecedented powers.

0:13:45.056,0:13:47.836
Barings Bank had existed for 200 years.

0:13:48.353,0:13:53.006
It had withstood the most amazing[br]technological, political, and other changes,

0:13:53.006,0:13:58.774
and one young man, Nick Leeson, [br]having some fun, a bit of trading,

0:13:58.774,0:13:59.934
managed to bring it down.

0:13:59.934,0:14:03.470
And the same thing almost happened[br]in Société Générale with Jérôme Kerviel,

0:14:03.470,0:14:06.114
JP Morgan, UBS, and many others.

0:14:06.114,0:14:09.798
We see that these individuals[br]now have power in new ways.

0:14:10.177,0:14:14.870
And of course, individuals can also,[br]in new ways, develop biopathogens

0:14:14.870,0:14:18.808
using a DNA sequencing which[br]is going down exponentially in price,

0:14:19.079,0:14:21.842
a single individual now[br]can build something,

0:14:21.842,0:14:24.489
using a technology like a drone [br]to distribute it,

0:14:25.295,0:14:28.743
and kill perhaps tens, if not hundreds, [br]of millions of people.

0:14:28.997,0:14:33.723
This new capability, this new power[br]of individuals has changed

0:14:34.382,0:14:38.903
so that nation states are becoming[br]less and less powerful

0:14:39.257,0:14:41.294
relative to the power of individuals.

0:14:41.294,0:14:44.110
And there are seven billion of us[br]growing to nine billion

0:14:44.110,0:14:45.864
over the next 35 years.

0:14:46.734,0:14:49.526
Within the cybersphere,[br]we see this dramatically,

0:14:49.736,0:14:52.659
how small groups can cause mayhem,

0:14:52.659,0:14:55.129
steal all our records, [br]open our bank accounts,

0:14:55.129,0:14:57.219
they'll be opening our front door locks,

0:14:57.219,0:15:00.719
controlling our vehicle-to-vehicle [br]communication, etc.

0:15:01.377,0:15:07.302
Understanding how we build systems[br]which liberate us,

0:15:08.127,0:15:12.807
and yet we do not become slaves [br]or vulnerable to, is the central question.

0:15:13.531,0:15:17.928
Can we create interdependent systems[br]where we are in control,

0:15:17.928,0:15:19.358
and what does that mean?

0:15:19.680,0:15:25.269
And that education process requires[br]a new understanding of responsibility.

0:15:25.631,0:15:29.284
As these technologies pervade [br]intoour bodies, on our bodies

0:15:29.284,0:15:30.776
and everything we do,

0:15:30.776,0:15:32.367
it becomes more and more important.

0:15:32.367,0:15:35.282
Trust, integrity, judgment,

0:15:35.772,0:15:39.207
these old things become [br]more and more important.

0:15:39.520,0:15:45.005
The financial crisis was characterized[br]by a number of remarkable things.

0:15:46.587,0:15:52.298
Over 250,000 extremely well-paid[br]people in the central banks of the world

0:15:52.848,0:15:58.447
in the IMF and other institutions[br]with this enormous amount of data

0:15:58.842,0:16:00.309
do not see it coming.

0:16:01.287,0:16:04.114
Too much data, too little integrity.

0:16:04.524,0:16:06.641
And as machines begin to take our jobs

0:16:06.641,0:16:11.523
-- and one of my groups in the Oxford[br]Martin School has said that 47% of US jobs

0:16:11.523,0:16:15.112
will be lost to machine intelligence[br]over the next 20 years --

0:16:15.357,0:16:19.578
people will increasingly see[br]machine intelligence as a threat

0:16:19.578,0:16:23.316
not only to their bank accounts[br]and other systems,

0:16:23.316,0:16:25.683
but to their jobs and to their careers.

0:16:25.970,0:16:30.624
And so, how do we create education[br]systems where we are not vulnerable

0:16:31.278,0:16:32.980
to automation taking our jobs?

0:16:32.980,0:16:36.619
And the answer is, we need to do things[br]which are not automatable.

0:16:36.895,0:16:38.156
What does that mean?

0:16:38.403,0:16:45.444
It means creativity, dexterity, [br]empathy, judgment

0:16:46.139,0:16:49.948
and that's what will keep us [br]different from machines

0:16:49.948,0:16:51.907
for at least the next 50 years.

0:16:52.777,0:16:57.492
So, creating an environment where [br]machines complement our abilities,

0:16:57.782,0:17:00.067
help us, do many of the things

0:17:00.067,0:17:04.267
that are really, in many ways, [br]inhumane for people to be doing,

0:17:04.665,0:17:06.931
dangerous and others;

0:17:07.587,0:17:10.870
help us be more effective, [br]but don't supplant us.

0:17:11.341,0:17:13.628
Being in Germany, we're reminded always

0:17:13.628,0:17:17.603
that it's not that technologies exist[br]that people decide to adopt them.

0:17:17.857,0:17:19.471
It's society's attitude.

0:17:19.471,0:17:23.204
Germany has banned nuclear power,[br]It has banned GMOs.

0:17:23.530,0:17:26.318
Many other places [br]embrace these technologies.

0:17:27.075,0:17:29.832
It's what we feel about these technologies[br]that matters.

0:17:29.832,0:17:34.368
It's how we feel we can control them,[br]whether we feel that we're on top,

0:17:34.635,0:17:37.363
which will shape the way [br]that societies adopt them.

0:17:37.363,0:17:41.753
And so, in education, it seems [br]absolutely vital that we understand them.

0:17:41.753,0:17:45.048
People need to understand[br]what genetic modification is.

0:17:45.048,0:17:48.632
People need to understand[br]what DNA sequencing is.

0:17:48.632,0:17:53.890
People need to understand these new, [br]extremely powerful technologies,

0:17:53.890,0:17:58.988
which will change the way we are[br]and the choices we face going forward.

0:17:58.988,0:18:03.845
There will be societal choices:[br]do we want to create superhumans, or not?

0:18:04.079,0:18:06.677
And if others do it, [br]what is our attitude to that?

0:18:06.944,0:18:11.019
These are choices that we will face,[br]let alone the next generation.

0:18:11.019,0:18:14.346
So this handshake, [br]this understanding of technology,

0:18:14.346,0:18:18.346
the literacy becomes [br]more and more important,

0:18:18.346,0:18:20.154
as well as the interconnectivity.

0:18:22.060,0:18:26.896
As we will become wealthier,[br]as we will become more connected,

0:18:27.696,0:18:32.076
the spillovers of our choices[br]get stronger and stronger.

0:18:32.636,0:18:36.732
And we see this in many, many areas.[br]We see --

0:18:37.311,0:18:41.459
-- sorry, I just want to go back to the [br]slide before with the video, if I may --

0:18:43.144,0:18:51.935
(people arguing animatedly around[br]a big tuna in Japanese, then clapping)

0:18:51.935,0:18:54.691
(Goldin) This is the tuna market in Tokyo.

0:18:54.691,0:18:59.184
This tuna was sold for about 1.5 million Euro.

0:18:59.674,0:19:05.125
This the market's response to the scarcity[br]of a natural resource.

0:19:05.771,0:19:08.876
The price goes up, the tuna don't know[br]how much they're worth, of course.

0:19:08.876,0:19:10.928
They don't reproduce more [br]when they're worth more.

0:19:11.488,0:19:15.062
Hi-tech fishermen go and chase[br]the remaining tuna

0:19:15.062,0:19:16.463
and you get extinction.

0:19:16.463,0:19:20.237
And the same thing, of course, with rhino[br]and any natural resource.

0:19:20.432,0:19:23.018
Natural resources don't understand [br]markets.

0:19:23.503,0:19:25.458
they are irrelevant to them.

0:19:25.879,0:19:29.994
and so, as we go forward and we have[br]a market system which determines choice,

0:19:29.994,0:19:31.313
on the one hand,

0:19:31.313,0:19:33.024
and more and more people [br]with more wealth

0:19:33.024,0:19:35.539
are claiming resources [br]through this system.

0:19:35.539,0:19:39.645
But on the other hand, we have [br]the supply of natural resources,

0:19:39.645,0:19:41.440
determined in totally different ways,

0:19:41.809,0:19:45.191
we have a very serious problem [br]of extinction.

0:19:46.657,0:19:48.929
Governments are not [br]very smart at this either.

0:19:48.929,0:19:53.765
Thinking short term, [br]they extract resource,

0:19:54.205,0:19:55.922
often for the good of their people,

0:19:55.922,0:19:58.415
but collectively, in the long term, [br]a disaster.

0:19:58.415,0:19:59.637
This is the Aral Sea.

0:19:59.937,0:20:02.776
Peop-- countries, six countries[br]doing the right thing,

0:20:02.776,0:20:04.623
drawing water to feed their people.

0:20:04.958,0:20:07.245
Collectively, a disaster.

0:20:07.520,0:20:10.609
The examples of success [br]-- and the Mediterranean is one --

0:20:10.609,0:20:15.630
where citizens, scientists, politicians,[br]civil society movements

0:20:15.630,0:20:18.160
came together and saved this.

0:20:18.160,0:20:22.038
And with climate change, of course,[br]we have this dramatic problem.

0:20:23.923,0:20:27.759
What's happening in Paris this week[br]is of huge significance

0:20:28.092,0:20:29.842
to the future of the planet.

0:20:30.208,0:20:33.906
But it's not enough;[br]we need to do much more.

0:20:34.776,0:20:37.855
And we need to do it in a way [br]that allows people around the world

0:20:37.855,0:20:39.653
to benefit from the things that we have.

0:20:39.653,0:20:43.673
We've created 90% of the problem[br]in the rich countries

0:20:44.633,0:20:50.559
but 80%, already 70% of the flows, (check)[br]growing to 80 over the next 15 years,

0:20:50.561,0:20:52.827
will be coming from emerging markets.

0:20:52.827,0:20:55.744
So how do we let the rest of the world[br]clime the energy curve,

0:20:56.324,0:21:01.238
while ensuring we keep global warming[br]to below 2 degrees?

0:21:01.365,0:21:08.335
These collective decisions, increasingly,[br]will shape the way that the planet moves.

0:21:08.335,0:21:10.094
Who's going to do this?

0:21:11.000,0:21:15.898
This set of institutions is totally unfit[br]for purpose.

0:21:15.898,0:21:19.274
It was built in a different era,[br]with different power structures.

0:21:20.724,0:21:23.568
It is unable to meet [br]the challenges of our time,

0:21:23.568,0:21:27.727
and in some areas, like cyber[br]there is no institution at all.

0:21:27.727,0:21:31.648
Small changes, [br]largely rearranging the furniture.

0:21:31.648,0:21:34.250
(laughter)

0:21:34.668,0:21:39.616
(Goldin) So I think of us as nations,[br]like in a cabin within a big ocean liner,

0:21:39.616,0:21:45.555
each in our little cabin, drifting[br]with no captain, on Planet Earth's deck.

0:21:46.416,0:21:51.361
Again, part of this is the result[br]of extroardinarily positive changes.

0:21:51.778,0:21:56.332
We're no longer in a world[br]where twelve white men, smoking cigars,

0:21:56.332,0:21:58.939
could sit in their room and decide[br]the earth's future,

0:21:59.098,0:22:01.089
as they did after the Second World War.

0:22:01.595,0:22:05.878
New power balances mean we have [br]to have a transition in power.

0:22:05.878,0:22:09.292
But we're in this dangerous time[br]where the old powers no longer rule

0:22:09.292,0:22:12.841
and the new powers have not been able[br]to step up to the plate.

0:22:12.841,0:22:17.112
So it's a time of transition, it's a time [br]where the big institutions,

0:22:17.112,0:22:20.679
the best of them like the IMF,[br]have proved themselves

0:22:21.251,0:22:23.518
totally unfit for purpose.

0:22:23.905,0:22:27.960
It requires citizens, it requires [br]thinking in new ways

0:22:27.960,0:22:29.491
to overcome this problem.

0:22:29.491,0:22:31.480
Thinking which overcomes short-termism,

0:22:31.717,0:22:36.106
be it in business or [br]be it in our own decisions.

0:22:36.106,0:22:39.259
We need to think long, [br]because we're here for the long term

0:22:39.259,0:22:43.191
and the kids of today will be here[br]for at least the next century.

0:22:44.047,0:22:48.831
How we do this and how we realize[br]that our own decisions, increasingly,

0:22:49.291,0:22:52.691
are entangled with others'[br]is of course the critical question.

0:22:52.875,0:22:56.316
What we see in the politics[br]is a reversal.

0:22:57.448,0:23:01.551
People feel the future is scary,[br]uncertain.

0:23:01.846,0:23:06.511
They feel that openness and connectivity[br]makes them more vulnerable,

0:23:06.511,0:23:07.641
and they're right.

0:23:07.893,0:23:11.296
And so, we see this political revulsion[br]with extremism growing

0:23:11.685,0:23:15.576
in all countries, but certainly in Europe[br]and in the US.

0:23:15.899,0:23:20.176
People wanting to return to an age[br]which they romanticize as being better:

0:23:21.288,0:23:24.287
protectionist, nationalist, xenophobic.

0:23:25.046,0:23:26.993
It's profoundly misguided.

0:23:27.637,0:23:30.223
In order to ensure that [br]we can manage this world,

0:23:30.444,0:23:32.859
we need to be more connected, not less.

0:23:32.859,0:23:37.224
We need to ensure that we're able[br]to come together, but be protected;

0:23:37.921,0:23:43.423
resilient, thinking together, and insuring[br]that through our decisions

0:23:43.423,0:23:46.971
we not only protect our own futures

0:23:47.419,0:23:50.521
but protect those of others [br]and the planet.

0:23:50.733,0:24:01.279
Thank you.[br](Applause)

0:24:01.279,0:24:04.555
If we can do all that, we can rock on[br]to a happy old age.

0:24:04.555,0:24:06.642
(Moderator) Ian, (laughs) [br]thank you very much indeed.

0:24:06.642,0:24:09.444
There's a lot of comments here, but[br]there is one theme that is emerging.

0:24:09.444,0:24:15.241
Let me just give you this one comment[br]from Anastasia Brewer (check), I think it was?

0:24:15.646,0:24:17.881
It's just nipped out as --

0:24:18.324,0:24:22.195
I want to pick up actually, really,[br]on what David said right at the beginning

0:24:22.195,0:24:24.876
about "Don't be afraid, [br]don't be in denial"

0:24:25.075,0:24:26.979
and this need for change,[br]and what you said about

0:24:26.979,0:24:31.258
the new normal will feel very strange[br]in a few years' time,

0:24:31.258,0:24:34.849
because Jeff Kortenbosch[br]makes this comment:

0:24:34.849,0:24:38.527
"A key skill set should be about [br]adapting to rapid change,

0:24:38.527,0:24:41.177
"to learn, unlearn and relearn."

0:24:41.177,0:24:45.515
And the debate tonight is going to be[br]about 21st century skills

0:24:45.515,0:24:48.025
are not being taught in schools[br]and should be.

0:24:48.025,0:24:51.196
Now, much of the work in the Martin School[br]is about behavior

0:24:51.787,0:24:53.637
and about understanding [br]how the brain works

0:24:53.637,0:24:56.457
and adaptability and the fears of [br]the second (check) generation

0:24:56.457,0:24:58.806
to be able to adapt to this new shift,

0:24:58.806,0:25:02.543
which is accelerating probably even faster[br]than most realize.

0:25:03.118,0:25:07.130
How optimistic can we be that actually,[br]our human capacity can cope with this?

0:25:08.113,0:25:10.143
(Goldin) Yes, this is [br]the most difficult question.

0:25:10.753,0:25:13.848
My sense is that the world is moving[br]at a revolutionary speed

0:25:14.738,0:25:20.311
and we and our institutions are[br]evolutionary very slow adapters.

0:25:20.937,0:25:25.869
My hope is that this concentration[br]of knowledge which is being unleashed

0:25:25.869,0:25:29.253
through the new connectivity and literacy[br]will allow us to leapfrog.

0:25:29.253,0:25:33.129
And we do see that, [br]and we see signs of this in so many ways.

0:25:33.129,0:25:35.537
So there's all sorts of exciting things,

0:25:35.537,0:25:37.930
like the things we heard about [br]earlier today,

0:25:37.930,0:25:39.276
that are happening.

0:25:39.597,0:25:42.715
The big question, and I think it's going[br]to be partly a question that's resolved

0:25:42.715,0:25:46.643
in Paris this week, is can we learn[br]to cooperate on these big challenges.

0:25:46.643,0:25:49.841
Are we able to give up [br]some independence and sovereignty

0:25:49.841,0:25:52.559
as individuals or as countries,

0:25:52.559,0:25:55.408
to ensure that collectively, [br]we'll all have a bigger future.

0:25:55.408,0:25:57.726
Are we able take longer term--[br](Moderator) What about the .... (check)

0:25:57.726,0:26:00.724
and the ability and -- we've only got[br]about 3 minutes to run now --

0:26:00.724,0:26:02.916
but what about the ability [br]of the human being

0:26:02.916,0:26:06.995
to cope with this enormity, particularly[br]to adapt to the speed

0:26:06.995,0:26:08.365
that the next generation,

0:26:08.365,0:26:10.812
through the education process,[br]will be expecting?

0:26:10.812,0:26:12.213
(Goldin) Humans can do anything.

0:26:13.168,0:26:19.162
In my college at Oxford Balliol, we had[br]a third of the college giving their lives

0:26:19.162,0:26:20.231
in the First World War,

0:26:20.231,0:26:24.090
and about 20% of the college giving [br]their lives in the Second World War

0:26:24.090,0:26:26.477
to defend ideals of freedom.

0:26:27.710,0:26:30.524
People are prepared to make the most[br]extraordinary sacrifices,

0:26:30.524,0:26:32.435
to change their lives fundamentally,

0:26:32.435,0:26:34.740
if they believe that [br]it's the right thing to do.

0:26:34.740,0:26:36.038
(Moderator) Can they do it?[br](Goldin) Yes, they can.

0:26:36.038,0:26:39.024
We've done it before, we can do it again:[br]I'm absolutely convinced.

0:26:39.024,0:26:42.375
(Applause)

0:26:42.375,0:26:44.614
(Moderator) But again, I'm picking up and[br]trying to bring together

0:26:44.614,0:26:47.576
a number of themes here, but that --[br]what David said right at the beginning:

0:26:47.576,0:26:49.542
"Don't be afraid, don't be in denial."

0:26:50.022,0:26:54.142
That is achievable, is it, that kind of[br]reversal with this scale of change,

0:26:54.142,0:26:56.325
and the shift, [br]the acceleration taking place?

0:26:57.529,0:27:01.731
(Goldin) Yes. I think one has to [br]open one's eyes

0:27:01.731,0:27:04.345
before one can see [br]what's happening around.

0:27:04.345,0:27:07.410
And this pace of change is really [br]what it's about.

0:27:07.410,0:27:09.570
Are we able to appreciate

0:27:09.570,0:27:12.123
this extraordinary moment in history[br]we're in?

0:27:12.123,0:27:15.831
This age of discovery, are we able[br]to recognize it for what it is,

0:27:15.831,0:27:18.368
and seize the opportunities[br]that come with it?

0:27:19.044,0:27:21.997
(Moderator) Yes, I'm going to stop there.[br]I'm afraid you - because you ran too much,

0:27:21.997,0:27:26.476
25 minutes, so the 30 minutes is up, so[br]I have to stop you at that point

0:27:26.476,0:27:29.352
because some people have begun to leave,[br]there's coffee and everything else

0:27:29.352,0:27:30.872
and a very tight schedule.

0:27:30.872,0:27:35.524
Remember, this is going to be part of [br]a big debate later tonight

0:27:35.524,0:27:39.762
and also, let me underscore that [br]everyone here can talk more about it.

0:27:39.762,0:27:42.430
And indeed, David Price is signing [br]his book,

0:27:42.430,0:27:47.089
"How will we work, live and learn[br]in the future?" at 13:05,

0:27:47.089,0:27:50.246
and that's in Potsdam 3,

0:27:50.246,0:27:55.774
and "Information doesn't want to be free",[br]Cory is going to be speaking about that

0:27:55.774,0:28:00.274
on copyright in the digital age, as well,[br]at 12 o'clock.

0:28:00.678,0:28:05.126
So, plenty: we've really burdened you[br]with an enormous number of concepts.

0:28:05.126,0:28:07.017
And David, can I tell you as well,

0:28:07.017,0:28:11.433
there are large numbers of people [br]who sent messages, admiring your battle

0:28:11.433,0:28:13.460
and how you've won your battle on health.

0:28:13.670,0:28:16.733
Can I thank you all very much indeed, [br]and also for contributing

0:28:16.733,0:28:20.321
some important comments and questions[br]from the floor.

0:28:20.665,0:28:23.258
It's coffee time.[br](Applause)

0:28:23.258,0:28:29.488
[Recordings of this session will be [br]uploaded to www.online-educa.com] 28:31