[Script Info]
Title: 
[Events]
Format: Layer, Start, End, Style, Name, MarginL, MarginR, MarginV, Effect, Text
Dialogue: 0,0:00:00.71,0:00:03.42,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,That's how we traveled in the year 1900.
Dialogue: 0,0:00:03.42,0:00:05.79,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,That's an open buggy. It doesn't have heating.
Dialogue: 0,0:00:05.79,0:00:07.42,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,It doesn't have air conditioning.
Dialogue: 0,0:00:07.42,0:00:09.48,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,That horse is pulling it along
Dialogue: 0,0:00:09.48,0:00:11.78,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,at one percent of the speed of sound,
Dialogue: 0,0:00:11.78,0:00:13.53,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and the rutted dirt road
Dialogue: 0,0:00:13.53,0:00:17.91,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,turns into a quagmire of mud anytime it rains.
Dialogue: 0,0:00:17.91,0:00:20.65,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,That's a Boeing 707.
Dialogue: 0,0:00:20.65,0:00:22.96,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Only 60 years later, it travels
Dialogue: 0,0:00:22.96,0:00:25.17,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,at 80 percent of the speed of sound,
Dialogue: 0,0:00:25.17,0:00:27.80,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and we don't travel any faster today
Dialogue: 0,0:00:27.80,0:00:30.94,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,because commercial supersonic air travel
Dialogue: 0,0:00:30.94,0:00:32.91,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,turned out to be a bust.
Dialogue: 0,0:00:32.91,0:00:35.46,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So I started wondering and pondering,
Dialogue: 0,0:00:35.46,0:00:38.49,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,could it be that the best years of American economic growth
Dialogue: 0,0:00:38.49,0:00:40.15,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,are behind us?
Dialogue: 0,0:00:40.15,0:00:44.62,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And that leads to the suggestion, maybe economic growth
Dialogue: 0,0:00:44.62,0:00:46.85,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,is almost over.
Dialogue: 0,0:00:46.85,0:00:50.61,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Some of the reasons for this are not really very controversial.
Dialogue: 0,0:00:50.61,0:00:52.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,There are four headwinds that are just hitting
Dialogue: 0,0:00:52.99,0:00:55.37,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,the American economy in the face.
Dialogue: 0,0:00:55.37,0:01:00.03,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,They're demographics, education, debt and inequality.
Dialogue: 0,0:01:00.03,0:01:03.66,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,They're powerful enough to cut growth in half.
Dialogue: 0,0:01:03.66,0:01:08.32,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So we need a lot of innovation to offset this decline.
Dialogue: 0,0:01:08.32,0:01:11.09,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And here's my theme: Because of the headwinds,
Dialogue: 0,0:01:11.09,0:01:13.77,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,if innovation continues to be as powerful as it has been
Dialogue: 0,0:01:13.77,0:01:17.64,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,in the last 150 years, growth is cut in half.
Dialogue: 0,0:01:17.64,0:01:20.35,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,If innovation is less powerful,
Dialogue: 0,0:01:20.35,0:01:22.80,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,invents less great, wonderful things,
Dialogue: 0,0:01:22.80,0:01:26.81,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,then growth is going to be even lower than half of history.
Dialogue: 0,0:01:26.81,0:01:29.97,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Now here's eight centuries of economic growth.
Dialogue: 0,0:01:29.97,0:01:33.63,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,The vertical axis is just percent per year of growth,
Dialogue: 0,0:01:33.63,0:01:36.76,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,zero percent a year, one percent a year, two percent a year.
Dialogue: 0,0:01:36.76,0:01:39.66,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,The white line is for the U.K., and then the U.S.
Dialogue: 0,0:01:39.66,0:01:42.19,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,takes over as the leading nation in the year 1900,
Dialogue: 0,0:01:42.19,0:01:43.68,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,when the line switches to red.
Dialogue: 0,0:01:43.68,0:01:45.66,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,You'll notice that, for the first four centuries,
Dialogue: 0,0:01:45.66,0:01:49.53,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,there's hardly any growth at all, just 0.2 percent.
Dialogue: 0,0:01:49.53,0:01:51.15,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Then growth gets better and better.
Dialogue: 0,0:01:51.15,0:01:54.13,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,It maxes out in the 1930s, '40s and '50s,
Dialogue: 0,0:01:54.13,0:01:57.89,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and then it starts slowing down, and here's a cautionary note.
Dialogue: 0,0:01:57.89,0:02:00.38,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,That last downward notch in the red line
Dialogue: 0,0:02:00.38,0:02:02.61,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,is not actual data.
Dialogue: 0,0:02:02.61,0:02:05.75,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,That is a forecast that I made six years ago
Dialogue: 0,0:02:05.75,0:02:08.38,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that growth would slow down to 1.3 percent.
Dialogue: 0,0:02:08.38,0:02:10.39,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,But you know what the actual facts are?
Dialogue: 0,0:02:10.39,0:02:12.21,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,You know what the growth in per-person income has been
Dialogue: 0,0:02:12.21,0:02:15.10,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,in the United States in the last six years?
Dialogue: 0,0:02:15.10,0:02:17.44,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Negative.
Dialogue: 0,0:02:17.44,0:02:19.71,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,This led to a fantasy.
Dialogue: 0,0:02:19.71,0:02:24.96,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,What if I try to fit a curved line to this historical record?
Dialogue: 0,0:02:24.96,0:02:28.92,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,I can make the curved line end anywhere I wanted,
Dialogue: 0,0:02:28.92,0:02:31.72,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,but I decided I would end it at 0.2,
Dialogue: 0,0:02:31.72,0:02:36.54,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,just like the U.K. growth for the first four centuries.
Dialogue: 0,0:02:36.54,0:02:39.91,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Now the history that we've achieved is that we've grown
Dialogue: 0,0:02:39.91,0:02:43.97,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,at 2.0 percent per year over the whole period,
Dialogue: 0,0:02:43.97,0:02:47.16,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,1891 to 2007,
Dialogue: 0,0:02:47.16,0:02:50.78,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and remember it's been a little bit negative since 2007.
Dialogue: 0,0:02:50.78,0:02:53.08,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,But if growth slows down,
Dialogue: 0,0:02:53.08,0:02:57.07,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,instead of doubling our standard of living every generation,
Dialogue: 0,0:02:57.07,0:03:01.90,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Americans in the future can't expect to be twice as well off as their parents,
Dialogue: 0,0:03:01.90,0:03:04.88,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,or even a quarter [more well off than] their parents.
Dialogue: 0,0:03:04.88,0:03:09.24,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Now we're going to change and look at the level of per capita income.
Dialogue: 0,0:03:09.24,0:03:12.60,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,The vertical axis now is thousands of dollars in today's prices.
Dialogue: 0,0:03:12.60,0:03:15.18,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,You'll notice that in 1891, over on the left,
Dialogue: 0,0:03:15.18,0:03:16.91,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,we were at about 5,000 dollars.
Dialogue: 0,0:03:16.91,0:03:19.82,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Today we're at about 44,000 dollars of total output
Dialogue: 0,0:03:19.82,0:03:22.48,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,per member of the population.
Dialogue: 0,0:03:22.48,0:03:24.90,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Now what if we could achieve that historic
Dialogue: 0,0:03:24.90,0:03:27.88,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,two-percent growth for the next 70 years?
Dialogue: 0,0:03:27.88,0:03:29.22,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Well, it's a matter of arithmetic.
Dialogue: 0,0:03:29.22,0:03:33.36,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Two-percent growth quadruples your standard of living in 70 years.
Dialogue: 0,0:03:33.36,0:03:37.06,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,That means we'd go from 44,000 to 180,000.
Dialogue: 0,0:03:37.06,0:03:39.51,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Well, we're not going to do that,
Dialogue: 0,0:03:39.51,0:03:41.33,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and the reason is the headwinds.
Dialogue: 0,0:03:41.33,0:03:42.97,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,The first headwind is demographics.
Dialogue: 0,0:03:42.97,0:03:45.31,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,It's a truism that your standard of living
Dialogue: 0,0:03:45.31,0:03:48.82,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,rises faster than productivity, rises faster than output per hour,
Dialogue: 0,0:03:48.82,0:03:51.43,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,if hours per person increased.
Dialogue: 0,0:03:51.43,0:03:53.94,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And we got that gift back in the '70s and '80s
Dialogue: 0,0:03:53.94,0:03:56.45,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,when women entered the labor force.
Dialogue: 0,0:03:56.45,0:03:58.69,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,But now it's turned around.
Dialogue: 0,0:03:58.69,0:04:00.89,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Now hours per person are shrinking,
Dialogue: 0,0:04:00.89,0:04:03.76,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,first because of the retirement of the baby boomers,
Dialogue: 0,0:04:03.76,0:04:07.92,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and second because there's been a very significant
Dialogue: 0,0:04:07.92,0:04:11.92,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,dropping out of the labor force of prime age adult males
Dialogue: 0,0:04:11.92,0:04:15.85,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,who are in the bottom half of the educational distribution.
Dialogue: 0,0:04:15.85,0:04:18.02,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,The next headwind is education.
Dialogue: 0,0:04:18.02,0:04:20.66,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,We've got problems all over our educational system
Dialogue: 0,0:04:20.66,0:04:22.18,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,despite Race to the Top.
Dialogue: 0,0:04:22.18,0:04:26.26,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,In college, we've got cost inflation in higher education
Dialogue: 0,0:04:26.26,0:04:29.18,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that dwarfs cost inflation in medical care.
Dialogue: 0,0:04:29.18,0:04:33.43,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,We have in higher education a trillion dollars of student debt,
Dialogue: 0,0:04:33.43,0:04:36.42,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and our college completion rate
Dialogue: 0,0:04:36.42,0:04:43.37,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,is 15 points, 15 percentage points below Canada.
Dialogue: 0,0:04:43.37,0:04:45.48,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,We have a lot of debt.
Dialogue: 0,0:04:45.48,0:04:50.46,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Our economy grew from 2000 to 2007
Dialogue: 0,0:04:50.46,0:04:53.69,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,on the back of consumers massively overborrowing.
Dialogue: 0,0:04:53.69,0:04:56.63,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Consumers paying off that debt is one of the main reasons
Dialogue: 0,0:04:56.63,0:04:59.36,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,why our economic recovery is so sluggish today.
Dialogue: 0,0:04:59.36,0:05:00.95,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And everybody of course knows
Dialogue: 0,0:05:00.95,0:05:03.08,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that the federal government debt is growing
Dialogue: 0,0:05:03.08,0:05:06.41,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,as a share of GDP at a very rapid rate,
Dialogue: 0,0:05:06.41,0:05:09.57,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and the only way that's going to stop is some combination
Dialogue: 0,0:05:09.57,0:05:14.64,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,of faster growth in taxes or slower growth in entitlements,
Dialogue: 0,0:05:14.64,0:05:16.73,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,also called transfer payments.
Dialogue: 0,0:05:16.73,0:05:18.90,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And that gets us down from the 1.5,
Dialogue: 0,0:05:18.90,0:05:22.30,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,where we've reached for education, down to 1.3.
Dialogue: 0,0:05:22.30,0:05:24.72,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And then we have inequality.
Dialogue: 0,0:05:24.72,0:05:27.47,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Over the 15 years before the financial crisis,
Dialogue: 0,0:05:27.47,0:05:30.74,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,the growth rate of the bottom 99 percent
Dialogue: 0,0:05:30.74,0:05:33.86,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,of the income distribution was half a point slower
Dialogue: 0,0:05:33.86,0:05:36.64,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,than the averages we've been talking about before.
Dialogue: 0,0:05:36.64,0:05:38.92,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,All the rest went to the top one percent.
Dialogue: 0,0:05:38.92,0:05:41.27,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So that brings us down to 0.8.
Dialogue: 0,0:05:41.27,0:05:44.65,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And that 0.8 is the big challenge.
Dialogue: 0,0:05:44.65,0:05:46.86,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Are we going to grow at 0.8?
Dialogue: 0,0:05:46.86,0:05:49.32,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,If so, that's going to require that our inventions
Dialogue: 0,0:05:49.32,0:05:51.66,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,are as important as the ones that happened
Dialogue: 0,0:05:51.66,0:05:54.58,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,over the last 150 years.
Dialogue: 0,0:05:54.58,0:05:58.62,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So let's see what some of those inventions were.
Dialogue: 0,0:05:58.62,0:06:02.12,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,If you wanted to read in 1875 at night,
Dialogue: 0,0:06:02.12,0:06:05.45,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,you needed to have an oil or a gas lamp.
Dialogue: 0,0:06:05.45,0:06:07.60,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,They created pollution, they created odors,
Dialogue: 0,0:06:07.60,0:06:10.01,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,they were hard to control, the light was dim,
Dialogue: 0,0:06:10.01,0:06:12.16,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and they were a fire hazard.
Dialogue: 0,0:06:12.16,0:06:17.25,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,By 1929, electric light was everywhere.
Dialogue: 0,0:06:17.25,0:06:21.40,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,We had the vertical city, the invention of the elevator.
Dialogue: 0,0:06:21.40,0:06:24.38,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Central Manhattan became possible.
Dialogue: 0,0:06:24.38,0:06:27.63,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And then, in addition to that, at the same time,
Dialogue: 0,0:06:27.63,0:06:31.13,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,hand tools were replaced by massive electric tools
Dialogue: 0,0:06:31.13,0:06:33.84,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and hand-powered electric tools,
Dialogue: 0,0:06:33.84,0:06:36.69,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,all achieved by electricity.
Dialogue: 0,0:06:36.69,0:06:40.91,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Electricity was also very helpful in liberating women.
Dialogue: 0,0:06:40.91,0:06:43.60,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Women, back in the late 19th century,
Dialogue: 0,0:06:43.60,0:06:46.25,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,spent two days a week doing the laundry.
Dialogue: 0,0:06:46.25,0:06:47.97,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,They did it on a scrub board.
Dialogue: 0,0:06:47.97,0:06:50.03,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Then they had to hang the clothes out to dry.
Dialogue: 0,0:06:50.03,0:06:51.57,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Then they had to bring them in.
Dialogue: 0,0:06:51.57,0:06:54.52,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,The whole thing took two days out of the seven-day week.
Dialogue: 0,0:06:54.52,0:06:58.11,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And then we had the electric washing machine.
Dialogue: 0,0:06:58.11,0:07:01.18,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And by 1950, they were everywhere.
Dialogue: 0,0:07:01.18,0:07:04.21,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,But the women still had to shop every day,
Dialogue: 0,0:07:04.21,0:07:06.50,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,but no they didn't, because electricity
Dialogue: 0,0:07:06.50,0:07:09.40,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,brought us the electric refrigerator.
Dialogue: 0,0:07:09.40,0:07:12.59,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Back in the late 19th century, the only source of heat in most homes
Dialogue: 0,0:07:12.59,0:07:17.12,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,was a big fireplace in the kitchen that was used for cooking and heating.
Dialogue: 0,0:07:17.12,0:07:19.44,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,The bedrooms were cold. They were unheated.
Dialogue: 0,0:07:19.44,0:07:22.12,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,But by 1929, certainly by 1950,
Dialogue: 0,0:07:22.12,0:07:26.01,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,we had central heating everywhere.
Dialogue: 0,0:07:26.01,0:07:28.60,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,What about the internal combustion engine,
Dialogue: 0,0:07:28.60,0:07:30.94,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,which was invented in 1879?
Dialogue: 0,0:07:30.94,0:07:34.76,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,In America, before the motor vehicle,
Dialogue: 0,0:07:34.76,0:07:38.73,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,transportation depended entirely on the urban horse,
Dialogue: 0,0:07:38.73,0:07:41.62,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,which dropped, without restraint,
Dialogue: 0,0:07:41.62,0:07:45.42,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,25 to 50 pounds of manure on the streets every day
Dialogue: 0,0:07:45.42,0:07:47.35,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,together with a gallon of urine.
Dialogue: 0,0:07:47.35,0:07:50.56,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,That comes out at five to 10 tons daily
Dialogue: 0,0:07:50.56,0:07:52.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,per square mile in cities.
Dialogue: 0,0:07:52.99,0:07:58.93,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Those horses also ate up fully one quarter of American agricultural land.
Dialogue: 0,0:07:58.93,0:08:01.33,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,That's the percentage of American agricultural land
Dialogue: 0,0:08:01.33,0:08:03.52,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,it took to feed the horses.
Dialogue: 0,0:08:03.52,0:08:07.49,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Of course, when the motor vehicle was invented,
Dialogue: 0,0:08:07.49,0:08:10.69,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and it became almost ubiquitous by 1929,
Dialogue: 0,0:08:10.69,0:08:13.79,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that agricultural land could be used for human consumption
Dialogue: 0,0:08:13.79,0:08:15.32,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,or for export.
Dialogue: 0,0:08:15.32,0:08:18.96,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And here's an interesting ratio: Starting from zero in 1900,
Dialogue: 0,0:08:18.96,0:08:23.88,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,only 30 years later, the ratio of motor vehicles to the number of households
Dialogue: 0,0:08:23.88,0:08:30.46,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,in the United States reached 90 percent in just 30 years.
Dialogue: 0,0:08:30.46,0:08:33.27,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Back before the turn of the century,
Dialogue: 0,0:08:33.27,0:08:34.67,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,women had another problem.
Dialogue: 0,0:08:34.67,0:08:39.27,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,All the water for cooking, cleaning and bathing
Dialogue: 0,0:08:39.27,0:08:43.94,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,had to be carried in buckets and pails in from the outside.
Dialogue: 0,0:08:43.94,0:08:46.41,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,It's a historical fact that in 1885,
Dialogue: 0,0:08:46.41,0:08:48.73,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,the average North Carolina housewife
Dialogue: 0,0:08:48.73,0:08:54.10,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,walked 148 miles a year carrying 35 tons of water.
Dialogue: 0,0:08:54.10,0:08:58.50,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,But by 1929, cities around the country
Dialogue: 0,0:08:58.50,0:09:01.52,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,had put in underground water pipes.
Dialogue: 0,0:09:01.52,0:09:04.94,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,They had put in underground sewer pipes,
Dialogue: 0,0:09:04.94,0:09:10.12,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and as a result, one of the great scourges of the late 19th century,
Dialogue: 0,0:09:10.12,0:09:14.37,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,waterborne diseases like cholera, began to disappear.
Dialogue: 0,0:09:14.37,0:09:17.97,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And an amazing fact for techno-optimists
Dialogue: 0,0:09:17.97,0:09:20.54,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,is that in the first half of the 20th century,
Dialogue: 0,0:09:20.54,0:09:23.26,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,the rate of improvement of life expectancy
Dialogue: 0,0:09:23.26,0:09:26.06,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,was three times faster than it was
Dialogue: 0,0:09:26.06,0:09:28.93,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,in the second half of the 19th century.
Dialogue: 0,0:09:28.93,0:09:34.01,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So it's a truism that things can't be more than 100 percent of themselves.
Dialogue: 0,0:09:34.01,0:09:36.20,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And I'll just give you a few examples.
Dialogue: 0,0:09:36.20,0:09:39.46,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,We went from one percent to 90 percent of the speed of sound.
Dialogue: 0,0:09:39.46,0:09:43.07,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Electrification, central heat, ownership of motor cars,
Dialogue: 0,0:09:43.07,0:09:45.43,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,they all went from zero to 100 percent.
Dialogue: 0,0:09:45.43,0:09:49.08,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Urban environments make people more productive than on the farm.
Dialogue: 0,0:09:49.08,0:09:51.93,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,We went from 25 percent urban to 75 percent
Dialogue: 0,0:09:51.93,0:09:56.05,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,by the early postwar years.
Dialogue: 0,0:09:56.05,0:09:58.30,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,What about the electronic revolution?
Dialogue: 0,0:09:58.30,0:10:00.42,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Here's an early computer.
Dialogue: 0,0:10:00.42,0:10:03.73,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,It's amazing. The mainframe computer was invented in 1942.
Dialogue: 0,0:10:03.73,0:10:08.28,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,By 1960 we had telephone bills, bank statements
Dialogue: 0,0:10:08.28,0:10:10.05,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,were being produced by computers.
Dialogue: 0,0:10:10.05,0:10:12.92,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,The earliest cell phones, the earliest personal computers
Dialogue: 0,0:10:12.92,0:10:15.83,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,were invented in the 1970s.
Dialogue: 0,0:10:15.83,0:10:19.09,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,The 1980s brought us Bill Gates, DOS,
Dialogue: 0,0:10:19.09,0:10:21.87,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,ATM machines to replace bank tellers,
Dialogue: 0,0:10:21.87,0:10:25.76,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,bar code scanning to cut down on labor in the retail sector.
Dialogue: 0,0:10:25.76,0:10:27.63,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Fast forward through the '90s,
Dialogue: 0,0:10:27.63,0:10:29.20,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,we had the dotcom revolution
Dialogue: 0,0:10:29.20,0:10:32.32,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and a temporary rise in productivity growth.
Dialogue: 0,0:10:32.32,0:10:34.78,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,But I'm now going to give you an experiment.
Dialogue: 0,0:10:34.78,0:10:37.86,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,You have to choose either option A or option B.
Dialogue: 0,0:10:37.86,0:10:40.38,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,(Laughter)
Dialogue: 0,0:10:40.38,0:10:43.72,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Option A is you get to keep everything invented up till 10 years ago.
Dialogue: 0,0:10:43.72,0:10:46.63,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So you get Google, you get Amazon,
Dialogue: 0,0:10:46.63,0:10:49.72,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,you get Wikipedia, and you get running water and indoor toilets.
Dialogue: 0,0:10:49.72,0:10:51.54,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Or you get everything invented to yesterday,
Dialogue: 0,0:10:51.54,0:10:53.62,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,including Facebook and your iPhone,
Dialogue: 0,0:10:53.62,0:10:55.98,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,but you have to give up, go out to the outhouse,
Dialogue: 0,0:10:55.98,0:10:58.84,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and carry in the water.
Dialogue: 0,0:10:58.84,0:11:02.29,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Hurricane Sandy caused a lot of people to lose the 20th century,
Dialogue: 0,0:11:02.29,0:11:03.82,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,maybe for a couple of days,
Dialogue: 0,0:11:03.82,0:11:05.94,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,in some cases for more than a week,
Dialogue: 0,0:11:05.94,0:11:09.48,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,electricity, running water, heating, gasoline for their cars,
Dialogue: 0,0:11:09.48,0:11:12.40,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and a charge for their iPhones.
Dialogue: 0,0:11:12.40,0:11:15.91,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,The problem we face is that all these great inventions,
Dialogue: 0,0:11:15.91,0:11:18.91,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,we have to match them in the future,
Dialogue: 0,0:11:18.91,0:11:21.50,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and my prediction that we're not going to match them
Dialogue: 0,0:11:21.50,0:11:24.70,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,brings us down from the original two-percent growth
Dialogue: 0,0:11:24.70,0:11:29.77,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,down to 0.2, the fanciful curve that I drew you at the beginning.
Dialogue: 0,0:11:29.77,0:11:32.77,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So here we are back to the horse and buggy.
Dialogue: 0,0:11:32.77,0:11:35.10,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,I'd like to award an Oscar
Dialogue: 0,0:11:35.10,0:11:38.75,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,to the inventors of the 20th century,
Dialogue: 0,0:11:38.75,0:11:41.49,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,the people from Alexander Graham Bell
Dialogue: 0,0:11:41.49,0:11:43.19,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,to Thomas Edison to the Wright Brothers,
Dialogue: 0,0:11:43.19,0:11:44.92,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,I'd like to call them all up here,
Dialogue: 0,0:11:44.92,0:11:46.78,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and they're going to call back to you.
Dialogue: 0,0:11:46.78,0:11:50.45,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Your challenge is, can you match what we achieved?
Dialogue: 0,0:11:50.45,0:11:51.98,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Thank you.
Dialogue: 0,0:11:51.98,0:11:57.01,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,(Applause)