0:00:00.357,0:00:04.222 I'm going to talk about religion. 0:00:04.222,0:00:09.474 But it's a broad and very delicate subject, 0:00:09.474,0:00:11.145 so I have to limit myself. 0:00:11.145,0:00:13.625 And therefore I will limit myself 0:00:13.625,0:00:18.034 to only talk about the links between religion and sexuality. 0:00:18.034,0:00:19.600 (Laughter) 0:00:19.600,0:00:22.160 This is a very serious talk. 0:00:22.160,0:00:26.255 So I will talk of what I remember as the most wonderful. 0:00:26.255,0:00:28.600 It's when the young couple whisper, 0:00:28.600,0:00:31.772 "Tonight we are going to make a baby." 0:00:31.772,0:00:37.108 My talk will be about the impact of religions 0:00:37.108,0:00:41.277 on the number of babies per woman. 0:00:41.277,0:00:42.942 This is indeed important, 0:00:42.942,0:00:44.472 because everyone understands 0:00:44.472,0:00:46.754 that there is some sort of limit 0:00:46.754,0:00:49.982 on how many people we can be on this planet. 0:00:49.982,0:00:51.929 And there are some people 0:00:51.929,0:00:55.348 who say that the world population is growing like this -- 0:00:55.348,0:00:57.155 three billion in 1960, 0:00:57.155,0:00:59.794 seven billion just last year -- 0:00:59.794,0:01:01.340 and it will continue to grow 0:01:01.340,0:01:05.120 because there are religions that stop women from having few babies, 0:01:05.120,0:01:07.523 and it may continue like this. 0:01:07.523,0:01:11.425 To what extent are these people right? 0:01:11.425,0:01:16.305 When I was born there was less than one billion children in the world, 0:01:16.305,0:01:20.480 and today, 2000, there's almost two billion. 0:01:20.480,0:01:22.182 What has happened since, 0:01:22.182,0:01:24.877 and what do the experts predict will happen 0:01:24.877,0:01:27.360 with the number of children during this century? 0:01:27.360,0:01:29.978 This is a quiz. What do you think? 0:01:29.978,0:01:33.880 Do you think it will decrease to one billion? 0:01:33.880,0:01:37.708 Will it remain the same and be two billion by the end of the century? 0:01:37.708,0:01:41.425 Will the number of children increase each year up to 15 years, 0:01:41.425,0:01:43.929 or will it continue in the same fast rate 0:01:43.929,0:01:46.418 and be four billion children up there? 0:01:46.418,0:01:49.843 I will tell you by the end of my speech. 0:01:49.843,0:01:54.865 But now, what does religion have to do with it? 0:01:54.865,0:01:57.197 When you want to classify religion, 0:01:57.197,0:01:58.728 it's more difficult than you think. 0:01:58.728,0:02:01.932 You go to Wikipedia and the first map you find is this. 0:02:01.932,0:02:07.465 It divides the world into Abrahamic religions and Eastern religion, 0:02:07.465,0:02:09.237 but that's not detailed enough. 0:02:09.237,0:02:13.046 So we went on and we looked in Wikipedia, we found this map. 0:02:13.046,0:02:17.692 But that subdivides Christianity, Islam and Buddhism 0:02:17.692,0:02:19.295 into many subgroups, 0:02:19.295,0:02:20.800 which was too detailed. 0:02:20.800,0:02:24.218 Therefore at Gapminder we made our own map, 0:02:24.218,0:02:26.591 and it looks like this. 0:02:26.591,0:02:29.994 Each country's a bubble. 0:02:29.994,0:02:33.418 The size is the population -- big China, big India here. 0:02:33.418,0:02:37.532 And the color now is the majority religion. 0:02:37.532,0:02:40.763 It's the religion where more than 50 percent of the people 0:02:40.763,0:02:42.018 say that they belong. 0:02:42.018,0:02:46.735 It's Eastern religion in India and China and neighboring Asian countries. 0:02:46.735,0:02:48.708 Islam is the majority religion 0:02:48.708,0:02:52.483 all the way from the Atlantic Ocean across the Middle East, 0:02:52.483,0:02:54.763 Southern Europe and through Asia 0:02:54.763,0:02:57.000 all the way to Indonesia. 0:02:57.000,0:02:59.917 That's where we find Islamic majority. 0:02:59.917,0:03:04.720 And Christian majority religions, we see in these countries. They are blue. 0:03:04.720,0:03:08.745 And that is most countries in America and Europe, 0:03:08.745,0:03:12.415 many countries in Africa and a few in Asia. 0:03:12.415,0:03:15.095 The white here are countries which cannot be classified, 0:03:15.095,0:03:17.720 because one religion does not reach 50 percent 0:03:17.720,0:03:21.077 or there is doubt about the data or there's some other reason. 0:03:21.077,0:03:22.837 So we were careful with that. 0:03:22.837,0:03:26.695 So bear with our simplicity now when I take you over to this shot. 0:03:26.695,0:03:28.708 This is in 1960. 0:03:28.708,0:03:32.240 And now I show the number of babies per woman here: 0:03:32.240,0:03:35.326 two, four or six -- 0:03:35.326,0:03:37.517 many babies, few babies. 0:03:37.517,0:03:40.698 And here the income per person in comparable dollars. 0:03:40.698,0:03:44.295 The reason for that is that many people say you have to get rich first 0:03:44.295,0:03:45.965 before you get few babies. 0:03:45.965,0:03:49.597 So low income here, high income there. 0:03:49.597,0:03:51.235 And indeed in 1960, 0:03:51.235,0:03:53.972 you had to be a rich Christian to have few babies. 0:03:53.972,0:03:56.246 The exception was Japan. 0:03:56.246,0:03:59.483 Japan here was regarded as an exception. 0:03:59.483,0:04:01.511 Otherwise it was only Christian countries. 0:04:01.511,0:04:03.720 But there was also many Christian countries 0:04:03.720,0:04:06.292 that had six to seven babies per woman. 0:04:06.292,0:04:11.769 But they were in Latin America or they were in Africa. 0:04:11.769,0:04:15.942 And countries with Islam as the majority religion, 0:04:15.942,0:04:20.572 all of them almost had six to seven children per woman, 0:04:20.572,0:04:22.997 irregardless of the income level. 0:04:22.997,0:04:27.240 And all the Eastern religions except Japan had the same level. 0:04:27.240,0:04:29.160 Now let's see what has happened in the world. 0:04:29.160,0:04:31.080 I start the world, and here we go. 0:04:31.080,0:04:34.298 Now 1962 -- can you see they're getting a little richer, 0:04:34.298,0:04:36.972 but the number of babies per woman is falling? 0:04:36.972,0:04:39.145 Look at China. They're falling fairly fast. 0:04:39.145,0:04:43.908 And all of the Muslim majority countries across the income are coming down, 0:04:43.908,0:04:48.871 as do the Christian majority countries in the middle income range. 0:04:48.871,0:04:51.400 And when we enter into this century, 0:04:51.400,0:04:54.760 you'll find more than half of mankind down here. 0:04:54.760,0:04:59.686 And by 2010, we are actually 80 percent of humans 0:04:59.686,0:05:04.000 who live in countries with about two children per woman. 0:05:04.000,0:05:07.538 (Applause) 0:05:07.538,0:05:11.498 It's a quite amazing development which has happened. 0:05:11.498,0:05:12.875 (Applause) 0:05:12.875,0:05:16.077 And these are countries from United States here, 0:05:16.077,0:05:18.238 with $40,000 per capita, 0:05:18.238,0:05:21.185 France, Russia, Iran, 0:05:21.185,0:05:24.837 Mexico, Turkey, Algeria, 0:05:24.837,0:05:27.062 Indonesia, India 0:05:27.062,0:05:29.791 and all the way to Bangladesh and Vietnam, 0:05:29.791,0:05:33.834 which has less than five percent of the income per person of the United States 0:05:33.834,0:05:36.991 and the same amount of babies per woman. 0:05:36.991,0:05:40.222 I can tell you that the data on the number of children per woman 0:05:40.222,0:05:42.311 is surprisingly good in all countries. 0:05:42.311,0:05:44.258 We get that from the census data. 0:05:44.258,0:05:47.651 It's not one of these statistics which is very doubtful. 0:05:47.651,0:05:48.957 So what we can conclude 0:05:48.957,0:05:51.738 is you don't have to get rich to have few children. 0:05:51.738,0:05:54.080 It has happened across the world. 0:05:54.080,0:05:56.658 And then when we look at religions, 0:05:56.658,0:05:59.185 we can see that the Eastern religions, 0:05:59.185,0:06:02.185 indeed there's not one single country with a majority of that religion 0:06:02.185,0:06:04.080 that has more than three children. 0:06:04.080,0:06:08.132 Whereas with Islam as a majority religion and Christianity, 0:06:08.132,0:06:10.040 you see countries all the way. 0:06:10.040,0:06:11.818 But there's no major difference. 0:06:11.818,0:06:15.320 There's no major difference between these religions. 0:06:15.320,0:06:17.671 There is a difference with income. 0:06:17.671,0:06:21.600 The countries which have many babies per woman here, 0:06:21.600,0:06:23.532 they have quite low income. 0:06:23.532,0:06:26.963 Most of them are in sub-Saharan Africa. 0:06:26.963,0:06:29.625 But there are also countries here 0:06:29.625,0:06:33.742 like Guatemala, like Papua New Guinea, 0:06:33.742,0:06:36.548 like Yemen and Afghanistan. 0:06:36.548,0:06:40.425 Many think that Afghanistan here and Congo, 0:06:40.425,0:06:43.875 which have suffered severe conflicts, 0:06:43.875,0:06:46.632 that they don't have fast population growth. 0:06:46.632,0:06:48.409 It's the other way around. 0:06:48.409,0:06:52.302 In the world today, it's the countries that have the highest mortality rates 0:06:52.302,0:06:54.538 that have the fastest population growth. 0:06:54.538,0:06:58.526 Because the death of a child is compensated by one more child. 0:06:58.526,0:07:01.434 These countries have six children per woman. 0:07:01.434,0:07:05.566 They have a sad death rate of one to two children per woman. 0:07:05.566,0:07:09.385 But 30 years from now, Afghanistan will go from 30 million to 60 million. 0:07:09.385,0:07:12.792 Congo will go from 60 to 120. 0:07:12.792,0:07:15.683 That's where we have the fast population growth. 0:07:15.683,0:07:20.028 And many think that these countries are stagnant, but they are not. 0:07:20.028,0:07:23.542 Let me compare Senegal, a Muslim dominated country, 0:07:23.542,0:07:26.000 with a Christian dominated country, Ghana. 0:07:26.000,0:07:29.597 I take them backwards here to their independence, 0:07:29.597,0:07:33.280 when they were up here in the beginning of the 1960s. 0:07:33.280,0:07:35.378 Just look what they have done. 0:07:35.378,0:07:36.929 It's an amazing improvement, 0:07:36.929,0:07:39.166 from seven children per woman, 0:07:39.166,0:07:42.231 they've gone all the way down to between four and five. 0:07:42.231,0:07:43.818 It's a tremendous improvement. 0:07:43.818,0:07:45.243 So what does it take? 0:07:45.243,0:07:48.840 Well we know quite well what is needed in these countries. 0:07:48.840,0:07:51.329 You need to have children to survive. 0:07:51.329,0:07:53.942 You need to get out of the deepest poverty 0:07:53.942,0:07:57.520 so children are not of importance for work in the family. 0:07:57.520,0:08:00.391 You need to have access to some family planning. 0:08:00.391,0:08:04.723 And you need the fourth factor, which perhaps is the most important factor. 0:08:04.723,0:08:07.631 But let me illustrate that fourth factor 0:08:07.631,0:08:09.732 by looking at Qatar. 0:08:09.732,0:08:13.532 Here we have Qatar today, and there we have Bangladesh today. 0:08:13.532,0:08:17.169 If I take these countries back to the years of their independence, 0:08:17.169,0:08:20.240 which is almost the same year -- '71, '72 -- 0:08:20.240,0:08:24.114 it's a quite amazing development which had happened. 0:08:24.114,0:08:25.920 Look at Bangladesh and Qatar. 0:08:25.920,0:08:29.178 With so different incomes, it's almost the same drop 0:08:29.178,0:08:31.292 in number of babies per woman. 0:08:31.292,0:08:33.295 And what is the reason in Qatar? 0:08:33.295,0:08:34.954 Well I do as I always do. 0:08:34.954,0:08:38.726 I went to the statistical authority of Qatar, to their webpage -- 0:08:38.726,0:08:40.857 It's a very good webpage. I recommend it -- 0:08:40.857,0:08:47.348 and I looked up -- oh yeah, you can have lots of fun here -- 0:08:47.348,0:08:51.415 and provided free of charge, I found Qatar's social trends. 0:08:51.415,0:08:53.760 Very interesting. Lots to read. 0:08:53.760,0:08:58.332 I found fertility at birth, and I looked at total fertility rate per woman. 0:08:58.332,0:09:01.883 These are the scholars and experts in the government agency in Qatar, 0:09:01.883,0:09:04.538 and they say the most important factors are: 0:09:04.538,0:09:06.480 "Increased age at first marriage, 0:09:06.480,0:09:09.505 increased educational level of Qatari woman 0:09:09.505,0:09:12.818 and more women integrated in the labor force." 0:09:12.818,0:09:16.560 I couldn't agree more. Science couldn't agree more. 0:09:16.560,0:09:19.077 This is a country that indeed has gone through 0:09:19.077,0:09:22.612 a very, very interesting modernization. 0:09:22.612,0:09:25.237 So what it is, is these four: 0:09:25.237,0:09:28.320 Children should survive, children shouldn't be needed for work, 0:09:28.320,0:09:31.222 women should get education and join the labor force 0:09:31.222,0:09:33.495 and family planning should be accessible. 0:09:33.495,0:09:36.883 Now look again at this. 0:09:36.883,0:09:39.175 The average number of children in the world 0:09:39.175,0:09:42.597 is like in Colombia -- it's 2.4 today. 0:09:42.597,0:09:45.634 There are countries up here which are very poor. 0:09:45.634,0:09:49.585 And that's where family planning, better child survival is needed. 0:09:49.585,0:09:53.372 I strongly recommend Melinda Gates' last TEDTalk. 0:09:53.372,0:09:58.831 And here, down, there are many countries which are less than two children per woman. 0:09:58.831,0:10:02.443 So when I go back now to give you the answer of the quiz, 0:10:02.443,0:10:03.985 it's two. 0:10:03.985,0:10:06.514 We have reached peak child. 0:10:06.514,0:10:09.403 The number of children is not growing any longer in the world. 0:10:09.403,0:10:11.395 We are still debating peak oil, 0:10:11.395,0:10:14.326 but we have definitely reached peak child. 0:10:14.326,0:10:17.049 And the world population will stop growing. 0:10:17.049,0:10:19.151 The United Nations Population Division has said 0:10:19.151,0:10:21.591 it will stop growing at 10 billion. 0:10:21.591,0:10:25.631 But why do they grow if the number of children doesn't grow? 0:10:25.631,0:10:28.077 Well I will show you here. 0:10:28.077,0:10:31.852 I will use these card boxes in which your notebooks came. 0:10:31.852,0:10:35.686 They are quite useful for educational purposes. 0:10:35.686,0:10:38.594 Each card box is one billion people. 0:10:38.594,0:10:41.262 And there are two billion children in the world. 0:10:41.262,0:10:48.132 There are two billion young people between 15 and 30. 0:10:48.132,0:10:49.602 These are rounded numbers. 0:10:49.602,0:10:54.628 Then there is one billion between 30 and 45, 0:10:54.628,0:10:58.471 almost one between 45 and 60. 0:10:58.471,0:11:00.095 And then it's my box. 0:11:00.095,0:11:02.120 This is me: 60-plus. 0:11:02.120,0:11:04.282 We are here on top. 0:11:04.282,0:11:09.514 So what will happen now is what we call "the big fill-up." 0:11:09.514,0:11:12.502 You can see that it's like three billion missing here. 0:11:12.502,0:11:16.809 They are not missing because they've died; they were never born. 0:11:16.809,0:11:20.917 Because before 1980, there were much fewer people born 0:11:20.917,0:11:23.674 than there were during the last 30 years. 0:11:23.674,0:11:26.828 So what will happen now is quite straightforward. 0:11:26.828,0:11:29.625 The old, sadly, we will die. 0:11:29.625,0:11:34.280 The rest of you, you will grow older and you will get two billion children. 0:11:34.280,0:11:36.888 Then the old will die. 0:11:36.888,0:11:40.926 The rest will grow older and get two billion children. 0:11:40.926,0:11:46.695 And then again the old will die and you will get two billion children. 0:11:46.695,0:11:48.949 (Applause) 0:11:48.949,0:11:52.582 This is the great fill-up. 0:11:52.582,0:11:55.354 It's inevitable. 0:11:55.354,0:11:58.000 And can you see that this increase took place 0:11:58.000,0:12:02.803 without life getting longer and without adding children? 0:12:02.803,0:12:07.708 Religion has very little to do with the number of babies per woman. 0:12:07.708,0:12:10.977 All the religions in the world are fully capable 0:12:10.977,0:12:16.102 to maintain their values and adapt to this new world. 0:12:16.102,0:12:21.385 And we will be just 10 billion in this world, 0:12:21.385,0:12:24.969 if the poorest people get out of poverty, 0:12:24.969,0:12:28.142 their children survive, they get access to family planning. 0:12:28.142,0:12:30.042 That is needed. 0:12:30.042,0:12:35.757 But it's inevitable that we will be two to three billion more. 0:12:35.757,0:12:38.969 So when you discuss and when you plan 0:12:38.969,0:12:42.372 for the resources and the energy needed for the future, 0:12:42.372,0:12:44.705 for human beings on this planet, 0:12:44.705,0:12:46.862 you have to plan for 10 billion. 0:12:46.862,0:12:49.012 Thank you very much. 0:12:49.012,0:12:55.098 (Applause)