WEBVTT 00:00:00.357 --> 00:00:03.452 I'm going to talk about religion. 00:00:03.452 --> 00:00:09.474 But it's a broad and very delicate subject, 00:00:09.474 --> 00:00:11.145 so I have to limit myself. 00:00:11.145 --> 00:00:13.625 And therefore I will limit myself 00:00:13.625 --> 00:00:17.665 to only talk about the links between religion and sexuality. NOTE Paragraph 00:00:17.665 --> 00:00:19.600 (Laughter) NOTE Paragraph 00:00:19.600 --> 00:00:22.160 This is a very serious Talk. 00:00:22.160 --> 00:00:26.255 So I will talk of what I remember as the most wonderful. 00:00:26.255 --> 00:00:28.600 It's when the young couple whisper, 00:00:28.600 --> 00:00:31.311 "Tonight we are going to make a baby." 00:00:31.311 --> 00:00:37.108 My Talk will be about the impact of religions 00:00:37.108 --> 00:00:40.508 on the number of babies per woman. NOTE Paragraph 00:00:40.508 --> 00:00:43.095 This is indeed important, 00:00:43.095 --> 00:00:44.472 because everyone understands 00:00:44.472 --> 00:00:46.754 that there is some sort of limit 00:00:46.754 --> 00:00:49.320 on how many people we can be on this planet. 00:00:49.320 --> 00:00:51.775 And there are some people 00:00:51.775 --> 00:00:55.348 who say that the world population is growing like this -- 00:00:55.348 --> 00:00:57.155 three billion in 1960, 00:00:57.155 --> 00:00:59.794 seven billion just last year -- 00:00:59.794 --> 00:01:01.340 and it will continue to grow 00:01:01.340 --> 00:01:05.120 because there are religions that stop women from having few babies, 00:01:05.120 --> 00:01:06.800 and it may continue like this. NOTE Paragraph 00:01:06.800 --> 00:01:10.578 To what extent are these people right? 00:01:10.578 --> 00:01:16.305 When I was born there was less than one billion children in the world, 00:01:16.305 --> 00:01:19.680 and today, 2000, there's almost two billion. 00:01:19.680 --> 00:01:21.520 What has happened since, 00:01:21.520 --> 00:01:24.877 and what do the experts predict will happen 00:01:24.877 --> 00:01:27.360 with the number of children during this century? NOTE Paragraph 00:01:27.360 --> 00:01:29.978 This is a quiz. What do you think? 00:01:29.978 --> 00:01:33.188 Do you think it will decrease to one billion? 00:01:33.188 --> 00:01:37.708 Will it remain the same and be two billion by the end of the century? 00:01:37.708 --> 00:01:41.425 Will the number of children increase each year up to 15 years, 00:01:41.425 --> 00:01:43.160 or will it continue in the same fast rate 00:01:43.160 --> 00:01:45.480 and be four billion children up there? 00:01:45.480 --> 00:01:48.720 I will tell you by the end of my speech. NOTE Paragraph 00:01:48.720 --> 00:01:53.972 But now, what does religion have to do with it? 00:01:53.972 --> 00:01:56.705 When you want to classify religion, 00:01:56.705 --> 00:01:58.728 it's more difficult than you think. 00:01:58.728 --> 00:02:01.932 You go to Wikipedia and the first map you find is this. 00:02:01.932 --> 00:02:07.465 It divides the world into Abrahamic religions and Eastern religion, 00:02:07.465 --> 00:02:09.237 but that's not detailed enough. 00:02:09.237 --> 00:02:13.046 So we went on and we looked in Wikipedia, we found this map. 00:02:13.046 --> 00:02:17.692 But that subdivides Christianity, Islam and Buddhism 00:02:17.692 --> 00:02:19.295 into many subgroups, 00:02:19.295 --> 00:02:20.800 which was too detailed. NOTE Paragraph 00:02:20.800 --> 00:02:24.218 Therefore at Gapminder we made our own map, 00:02:24.218 --> 00:02:25.868 and it looks like this. 00:02:25.868 --> 00:02:29.548 Each country's a bubble. 00:02:29.548 --> 00:02:33.418 The size is the population -- big China, big India here. 00:02:33.418 --> 00:02:36.702 And the color now is the majority religion. 00:02:36.702 --> 00:02:39.671 It's the religion where more than 50 percent of the people 00:02:39.671 --> 00:02:41.972 say that they belong. 00:02:41.972 --> 00:02:45.797 It's Eastern religion in India and China and neighboring Asian countries. 00:02:45.797 --> 00:02:48.200 Islam is the majority religion 00:02:48.200 --> 00:02:52.160 all the way from the Atlantic Ocean across the Middle East, 00:02:52.160 --> 00:02:54.763 Southern Europe and through Asia 00:02:54.763 --> 00:02:57.000 all the way to Indonesia. 00:02:57.000 --> 00:02:59.917 That's where we find Islamic majority. 00:02:59.917 --> 00:03:04.720 And Christian majority religions we see in these countries. They are blue. 00:03:04.720 --> 00:03:07.960 And that is most countries in America and Europe, 00:03:07.960 --> 00:03:12.415 many countries in Africa and a few in Asia. 00:03:12.415 --> 00:03:14.680 The white here are countries which cannot be classified, 00:03:14.680 --> 00:03:17.720 because one religion does not reach 50 percent 00:03:17.720 --> 00:03:21.077 or there is doubt about the data or there's some other reason. 00:03:21.077 --> 00:03:22.160 So we were careful with that. NOTE Paragraph 00:03:22.160 --> 00:03:26.695 So bear with our simplicity now when I take you over to this shot. 00:03:26.695 --> 00:03:28.708 This is in 1960. 00:03:28.708 --> 00:03:32.240 And now I show the number of babies per woman here: 00:03:32.240 --> 00:03:34.880 two, four or six -- 00:03:34.880 --> 00:03:37.240 many babies, few babies. 00:03:37.240 --> 00:03:40.698 And here the income per person in comparable dollars. 00:03:40.698 --> 00:03:44.295 The reason for that is that many people say you have to get rich first 00:03:44.295 --> 00:03:45.965 before you get few babies. 00:03:45.965 --> 00:03:49.597 So low income here, high income there. NOTE Paragraph 00:03:49.597 --> 00:03:51.235 And indeed in 1960, 00:03:51.235 --> 00:03:53.326 you had to be a rich Christian to have few babies. 00:03:53.326 --> 00:03:55.231 The exception was Japan. 00:03:55.231 --> 00:03:59.483 Japan here was regarded as an exception. 00:03:59.483 --> 00:04:01.511 Otherwise it was only Christian countries. 00:04:01.511 --> 00:04:03.720 But there was also many Christian countries 00:04:03.720 --> 00:04:06.292 that had six to seven babies per woman. 00:04:06.292 --> 00:04:10.769 But they were in Latin America or they were in Africa. 00:04:10.769 --> 00:04:15.942 And countries with Islam as the majority religion, 00:04:15.942 --> 00:04:19.880 all of them almost had six to seven children per woman, 00:04:19.880 --> 00:04:22.520 irregardless of the income level. 00:04:22.520 --> 00:04:27.240 And all the Eastern religions except Japan have the same level. NOTE Paragraph 00:04:27.240 --> 00:04:29.160 Now let's see what has happened in the world. 00:04:29.160 --> 00:04:31.080 I start the world, and here we go. 00:04:31.080 --> 00:04:34.298 Now 1962 -- can you see they're getting a little richer, 00:04:34.298 --> 00:04:36.972 but the number of babies per woman is falling. 00:04:36.972 --> 00:04:39.145 Look at China. They're falling fairly fast. 00:04:39.145 --> 00:04:43.908 And all of the Muslim majority countries across the income are coming down, 00:04:43.908 --> 00:04:48.871 as do the Christian majority countries in the middle income range. 00:04:48.871 --> 00:04:51.400 And when we enter into this century, 00:04:51.400 --> 00:04:54.760 you'll find that more than half of mankind down here. 00:04:54.760 --> 00:04:59.686 And by 2010, we are actually 80 percent of humans 00:04:59.686 --> 00:05:02.200 who live in countries with about two children per woman. NOTE Paragraph 00:05:02.200 --> 00:05:06.000 (Applause) NOTE Paragraph 00:05:06.000 --> 00:05:10.760 It's a quite amazing development which has happened. 00:05:10.760 --> 00:05:11.600 (Applause) 00:05:11.600 --> 00:05:16.077 And these are countries from United States here, 00:05:16.077 --> 00:05:18.238 with $40,000 per capita, 00:05:18.238 --> 00:05:21.185 France, Russia, Iran, 00:05:21.185 --> 00:05:24.837 Mexico, Turkey, Algeria, 00:05:24.837 --> 00:05:27.062 Indonesia, India 00:05:27.062 --> 00:05:29.791 and all the way to Bangladesh and Vietnam, 00:05:29.791 --> 00:05:33.834 which has less than five percent of the income per person of the United States 00:05:33.834 --> 00:05:36.560 and the same amount of babies per woman. NOTE Paragraph 00:05:36.560 --> 00:05:39.560 I can tell you that the data on the number of children per woman 00:05:39.560 --> 00:05:42.080 is surprisingly good in all countries. 00:05:42.080 --> 00:05:44.258 We get that from the census data. 00:05:44.258 --> 00:05:47.020 It's not one of these statistics which is very doubtful. NOTE Paragraph 00:05:47.020 --> 00:05:48.480 So what we can conclude 00:05:48.480 --> 00:05:51.738 is you don't have to get rich to have few children. 00:05:51.738 --> 00:05:53.818 It has happened across the world. NOTE Paragraph 00:05:53.818 --> 00:05:56.658 And then when we look at religions, 00:05:56.658 --> 00:05:59.185 we can see that the Eastern religions, 00:05:59.185 --> 00:06:02.000 indeed there's not one single country with a majority of that religion 00:06:02.000 --> 00:06:04.080 that has more than three children. 00:06:04.080 --> 00:06:07.440 Whereas with Islam as a majority religion and Christianity, 00:06:07.440 --> 00:06:10.040 you see countries all the way. 00:06:10.040 --> 00:06:11.080 But there's no major difference. 00:06:11.080 --> 00:06:14.843 There's no major difference between these religions. 00:06:14.843 --> 00:06:17.486 There is a difference with income. 00:06:17.486 --> 00:06:21.600 The countries which have many babies per woman here, 00:06:21.600 --> 00:06:23.532 they have quite low income. 00:06:23.532 --> 00:06:26.963 Most of them are in sub-Saharan Africa. 00:06:26.963 --> 00:06:29.040 But there are also countries here 00:06:29.040 --> 00:06:33.080 like Guatemala, like Papua New Guinea, 00:06:33.080 --> 00:06:35.640 like Yemen and Afghanistan. NOTE Paragraph 00:06:35.640 --> 00:06:43.578 Many think that Afghanistan here and Congo, which have suffered severe conflicts, 00:06:43.578 --> 00:06:46.632 that they don't have fast population growth. 00:06:46.632 --> 00:06:48.409 It's the other way around. 00:06:48.409 --> 00:06:52.302 In the world today, it's the countries that have the highest mortality rates 00:06:52.302 --> 00:06:54.538 that have the fastest population growth. 00:06:54.538 --> 00:06:58.095 Because the death of a child is compensated by one more child. 00:06:58.095 --> 00:07:01.172 These countries have six children per woman. 00:07:01.172 --> 00:07:05.566 They have a sad death rate of one to two children per woman. 00:07:05.566 --> 00:07:09.385 But 30 years from now, Afghanistan will go from 30 million to 60 million. 00:07:09.385 --> 00:07:11.838 Congo will go from 60 to 120. 00:07:11.838 --> 00:07:15.683 That's where we have the fast population growth. 00:07:15.683 --> 00:07:20.120 And many think that all these countries are stagnant, but they are not. NOTE Paragraph 00:07:20.120 --> 00:07:23.542 Let me compare Senegal, a Muslim dominated country, 00:07:23.542 --> 00:07:26.000 with a Christian dominated country, Ghana. 00:07:26.000 --> 00:07:29.597 I take them backwards here to their independence, 00:07:29.597 --> 00:07:33.280 when they were up here in the beginning of the 1960s. 00:07:33.280 --> 00:07:35.040 Just look what they have done. 00:07:35.040 --> 00:07:36.837 It's an amazing improvement, 00:07:36.837 --> 00:07:39.920 from seven children per woman, 00:07:39.920 --> 00:07:41.600 they've gone all the way down to between four and five. 00:07:41.600 --> 00:07:43.280 It's a tremendous improvement. NOTE Paragraph 00:07:43.280 --> 00:07:44.920 So what does it take? 00:07:44.920 --> 00:07:48.040 Well we know quite well what is needed in these countries. 00:07:48.040 --> 00:07:50.560 You need to have children to survive. 00:07:50.560 --> 00:07:53.942 You need to get out of the deepest poverty 00:07:53.942 --> 00:07:57.228 so children are not of importance for work in the family. 00:07:57.228 --> 00:07:59.760 You need to have access to some family planning. 00:07:59.760 --> 00:08:04.400 And you need the fourth factor, which perhaps is the most important factor. NOTE Paragraph 00:08:04.400 --> 00:08:07.000 But let me illustrate that fourth factor 00:08:07.000 --> 00:08:09.117 by looking at Qatar. 00:08:09.117 --> 00:08:13.040 Here we have Qatar today, and there we have Bangladesh today. 00:08:13.040 --> 00:08:17.169 If I take these countries back to the years of their independence, 00:08:17.169 --> 00:08:20.240 which is almost the same year -- '71, '72 -- 00:08:20.240 --> 00:08:24.114 it's a quite amazing development which has happened. 00:08:24.114 --> 00:08:25.920 Look at Bangladesh and Qatar. 00:08:25.920 --> 00:08:28.440 With so different incomes, it's almost the same drop 00:08:28.440 --> 00:08:30.800 in number of babies per woman. NOTE Paragraph 00:08:30.800 --> 00:08:33.295 And what is the reason in Qatar? 00:08:33.295 --> 00:08:34.954 Well I do as I always do. 00:08:34.954 --> 00:08:38.726 I went to the statistical authority of Qatar, to their webpage -- 00:08:38.726 --> 00:08:40.857 It's a very good webpage. I recommend it -- 00:08:40.857 --> 00:08:45.163 and I looked up -- oh yeah, you can have lots of fun here -- 00:08:45.163 --> 00:08:50.800 and provided free of charge, I found Qatar's social trends. 00:08:50.800 --> 00:08:52.960 Very interesting. Lots to read. 00:08:52.960 --> 00:08:58.332 I found fertility at birth, and I looked at total fertility rate per woman. 00:08:58.332 --> 00:09:01.883 These are the scholars and experts in the government agency in Qatar, 00:09:01.883 --> 00:09:04.538 and they say the most important factors are: 00:09:04.538 --> 00:09:06.480 "Increased age at first marriage, 00:09:06.480 --> 00:09:09.505 increased educational level of Qatari woman 00:09:09.520 --> 00:09:12.818 and more women integrated in the labor force." 00:09:12.818 --> 00:09:16.560 I couldn't agree more. Science couldn't agree more. 00:09:16.560 --> 00:09:19.077 This is a country that indeed has gone through 00:09:19.077 --> 00:09:22.028 a very, very interesting modernization. NOTE Paragraph 00:09:22.028 --> 00:09:24.560 So what it is, is these four: 00:09:24.560 --> 00:09:28.320 Children should survive, children shouldn't be needed for work, 00:09:28.320 --> 00:09:31.222 women should get education and join the labor force 00:09:31.222 --> 00:09:32.880 and family planning should be accessible. NOTE Paragraph 00:09:32.880 --> 00:09:35.806 Now look again at this. 00:09:35.806 --> 00:09:39.175 The average number of children in the world 00:09:39.175 --> 00:09:41.520 is like in Colombia -- it's 2.4 today. 00:09:41.520 --> 00:09:45.634 There are countries up here which are very poor. 00:09:45.634 --> 00:09:49.338 And that's where family planning, better child survival is needed. 00:09:49.338 --> 00:09:53.372 I strongly recommend Melinda Gates's last TEDTalk. 00:09:53.372 --> 00:09:58.831 And here down there are many countries which are less than two children per woman. 00:09:58.831 --> 00:10:02.397 So when I go back now to give you the answer of the quiz, 00:10:02.428 --> 00:10:03.985 it's two. NOTE Paragraph 00:10:03.985 --> 00:10:05.760 We have reached peak child. 00:10:05.760 --> 00:10:09.403 The number of children is not growing any longer in the world. 00:10:09.403 --> 00:10:11.395 We are still debating peak oil, 00:10:11.395 --> 00:10:13.480 but we have definitely reached peak child. 00:10:13.480 --> 00:10:17.049 And the world population will stop growing. 00:10:17.049 --> 00:10:18.720 The United Nations Population Division has said 00:10:18.720 --> 00:10:21.052 it will stop growing at 10 billion. 00:10:21.052 --> 00:10:25.354 But why do they grow if the number of children doesn't grow? NOTE Paragraph 00:10:25.354 --> 00:10:27.400 Well I will show you here. 00:10:27.400 --> 00:10:31.852 I will use these card boxes in which your notebooks came. 00:10:31.852 --> 00:10:34.763 They are quite useful for educational purposes. 00:10:34.763 --> 00:10:38.594 Each card box is one billion people. 00:10:38.594 --> 00:10:41.000 And there are two billion children in the world. 00:10:41.000 --> 00:10:48.132 There are two billion young people between 15 and 30. 00:10:48.132 --> 00:10:49.602 These are rounded numbers. 00:10:49.602 --> 00:10:54.628 Then there is one billion between 30 and 45, 00:10:54.628 --> 00:10:58.471 almost one between 45 and 60. 00:10:58.471 --> 00:11:00.095 And then it's my box. 00:11:00.095 --> 00:11:02.120 This is me -- 60-plus. 00:11:02.120 --> 00:11:03.528 We are here on top. NOTE Paragraph 00:11:03.528 --> 00:11:08.852 So what will happen now is what we call the big fill-up. 00:11:08.852 --> 00:11:12.502 You can see that it's like three billion missing here. 00:11:12.502 --> 00:11:15.240 They are not missing because they've died; they were never born. 00:11:15.240 --> 00:11:20.917 Because before 1980, there were much fewer people born 00:11:20.917 --> 00:11:23.043 than there were during the last 30 years. 00:11:23.043 --> 00:11:26.828 So what will happen now is quite straightforward. 00:11:26.828 --> 00:11:29.625 The old, sadly, we will die. 00:11:29.625 --> 00:11:34.280 The rest of you, you will grow older and you will get two billion children. 00:11:34.280 --> 00:11:36.288 Then the old will die. 00:11:36.288 --> 00:11:40.588 The rest will grow older and get two billion children. 00:11:40.588 --> 00:11:46.080 And then again the old will die and you will get two billion children. NOTE Paragraph 00:11:46.080 --> 00:11:48.949 (Applause) NOTE Paragraph 00:11:48.949 --> 00:11:51.428 This is the great fill-up. 00:11:51.428 --> 00:11:53.938 It's inevitable. 00:11:53.938 --> 00:11:58.000 And can you see that this increase took place 00:11:58.000 --> 00:12:01.542 without life getting longer and without adding children? NOTE Paragraph 00:12:01.542 --> 00:12:07.508 Religion has very little to do with the number of babies per woman. 00:12:07.508 --> 00:12:10.977 All the religions in the world are fully capable 00:12:10.977 --> 00:12:15.271 to maintain their values and adapt to this new world. NOTE Paragraph 00:12:15.271 --> 00:12:21.385 And we will be just 10 billion in this world, 00:12:21.385 --> 00:12:24.969 if the poorest people get out of poverty, 00:12:24.969 --> 00:12:28.142 their children survive, they get access to family planning. 00:12:28.142 --> 00:12:30.026 That is needed. 00:12:30.042 --> 00:12:35.034 But it's inevitable that we will be two to three billion more. 00:12:35.034 --> 00:12:38.969 So when you discuss and when you plan 00:12:38.969 --> 00:12:42.372 for the resources and the energy needed for the future, 00:12:42.372 --> 00:12:44.705 for human beings on this planet, 00:12:44.705 --> 00:12:46.554 you have to plan for 10 billion. 00:12:46.554 --> 00:12:47.920 Thank you very much. 00:12:47.920 --> 00:12:55.098 (Applause)