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Hans Rosling: Sizga javob variantli

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uchta savol bermoqchiman.

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Javob berish uchun tarqatilgan mana bu 
qurilmani ishlating. Birinchi savol:

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yiliga tabiiy ofatdan
[2014, iyun. Berlin, Germaniya]

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halok bo'luvchilar soni

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o'tgan asrda mobaynida

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qanchalik o'zgardi?

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Ikki baravarga ko'paydimi,

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butun dunyo miqyosida deyarli 
o'zgarishga uchramadimi

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yoki ikki baravar kamaydimi?

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Iltimos, A, B yoki C javobini tanlang.
Juda ko'p

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javoblarni ko'ryapman. Universitetdagi
talabalarimdan ko'ra tezroq javob

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beryapsiz. Ular shunchalik sekinki, 
o'ylayveradi, o'ylayveradi.

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Juda yaxshi, ajoyib.

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Keyingi savolga o'tamiz.

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Xo'sh, o'rtacha 30 yoshdagi ayollar

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qancha vaqt maktabga borgan:

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yetti yil, besh yil yoki uch yil?

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A, B yoki C? Iltimos, javob bering.

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Endi esa oxirgi savol.

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So'nggi 20 yil ichida dunyoda

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o'ta qashshoqlikda yashovchi kishilar

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foizi qaysi tomonga o'zgardi?
O'ta qashshoqlik

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— kunlik iste'mol 
uchun oziq-ovqat yetishmasligi.

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Ularning soni ikki baravar ko'payganmi,

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o'zgarmay qolganmi

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yoki ikki baravar kamayganmi?

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A, B yoki C?

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Endi javoblarga to'xtalsak.

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Mana qarang,

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1900-yildan 2000-yilgacha

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tabiiy ofatlardan o'lganlar sonini

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mazkur grafikdan ko'rishingiz mumkin.

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1900-yilda yiliga 
yarim millionga yaqin kishi

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tabiiy ofatlardan halok bo'lgan:

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suv toshqini, zilzila, vulqon otilishi, 
qurg'oqchilik va boshqalar.

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Xo'sh, ularning soni qanchalik o'zgardi?

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Gapminder tashkiloti 
Shvetsiya aholisidan so'rov o'tkazdi.

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Mana ularning javoblari.

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Shved jamoatchiligi
shunday javob berdi:

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ularning 50 foizi ikki baravar

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ko'paydi deb o'ylagan, 38 %i 
deyarli o'zgarmay

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qoldi, 12 %iga ko'ra, 
ikki marta qisqargan.

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Bu tadqiqotchilar tomonidan 
yig'ilgan eng ishonchli

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ma'lumotlardir, ularning soni goh 
ko'tariladi, goh tushadi,

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II Jahon urushida
eng yuqori ko'rsatichni qayd etgach,

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u pasaya boshladi

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va hozirgacha ikki baravarga kamaydi.

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Bilasizmi, har o'n yillikda dunyo 
odamlarni

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falokatlardan yanada yaxshiroq

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himoya qilishga 
qodir bo'lib bormoqda.

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Shvedlarning atigi 12 foizigina 
bundan xabardor. Shunda

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hayvonot bog'iga borib,
shimpanzelardan so'radim.

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(Kulgi) 
(Qarsak)

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Shimpanzelar kechki yangiliklarni 
tomosha qilmasligi aniq, ammo

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ular tavakkal javob berib ham

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shvedlarni dog'da qoldirdi.

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Siz qanday javob berdingiz?

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Mana bunday.

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Shimpanzelar sizni ham mag'lub qildi.

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(Kulgi)

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Ammo g'alabaga yaqin keldingiz.

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Siz shvedlardan uch baravar 
yaxshi javob berdingiz,

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ammo bu yetarli emas.

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O'zingizni ular bilan 
taqqoslamasligingiz kerak.

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Siz eng yuqori natijalarni 
ko'rsatishingiz kerak. Keyingi javobga

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e'tibor qaratsak: ayollarning 
maktabdagi ta'limi. Ko'rinib turibdiki,

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erkaklar o'rtacha 8 yil maktabga qatnagan.

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Ayollar necha yil maktabda o'qigan?

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Shvedlarga xuddi shu savolni berdik va
ularning javobini

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tahmin qilishingiz mumkin, 
shunday emasmi?

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To'g'ri javob, ehtimol,

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eng kam shvedlar tanlagan variantdir?

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(Kulgi)

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Qani, ko'raylikchi. Mana natijalar.

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Ha, ha, ha. Ayollar erkaklarga 
deyarli yetib oldi.

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Bu AQSh jamoatchiligining javoblari.

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Bunisi esa sizniki.

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Ooo, nima ham derdim, tabriklayman, 
siz shvedlardan ikki baravar

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yaxshi natija ko'rsatdingiz,

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bunisi o'z-o'zidan ravshan.

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Xo'sh, nega bunday natijalar chiqyapti? 
Menimcha, bunga sabab shuki,

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hammamiz qizlar 
katta muammolarga


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duch kelayotgan joylar,

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davlatlar borligini bilamiz.

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Ularga maktabga borish taqiqlangan

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va bu jirkanch holat.
Ammo dunyoning

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aksariyat aholisi yashaydigan
ko'pchilik

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mamlakatlarda bugungi kunda

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qizlar o'g'il bolalar bilan

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deyarli birdek maktabga boradilar.

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Bu umuman gender tengligiga

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erishganimizni anglatmaydi.

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Ular hali ham ko'p narsadan mahrum,

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ammo maktab ta'limi izga tushdi.

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Bu yerda siz umumiy manzarani hisobga 
olmadingiz. Eng og'ir ahvoldagi muayyan

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hududlarga asoslanib javob
berdingiz va bu holatda siz haqlisiz,

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lekin umumiy manzara butunlay boshqacha. 
Qashshoqlik

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masalasi qay ahvolda?

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Qashshoqlik ko'rsatkichi 
deyarli ikki baravar kamayganligi

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o'z-o'zidan ravshan.

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Amerikaliklarning atigi 
besh foizi

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to'g'ri javob berdi.

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Siz-chi?

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Eh-he, shimpanzelarga 
deyarli yetib olibsiz-ku.

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(Kulgi) 
(Qarsak)

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Yutishingizga ozgina yetmabdi-ya!

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Bilasizmi, atrofimizda to'qima fikrlar 
keng tarqalgan. Boy mamlakatlarda

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ko'pchilik hech qachon qashshoqlikni

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tugata olmasak kerak, deb o'ylashadi.

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Boshqa nima deb ham o'ylasin,

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axir ular aslida nimalar 
bo'layotganini bilishmaydi-ku.

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Kelajak haqida o'ylashdan avval hozirda

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nimalar bo'layotganini bilish kerak.

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Mazkur savollar Gapminder 
Tashkilotining bilimsizlik

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to'g'risidagi loyihasi doirasida
bergan dastlabki

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savollarimizdan bir nechtasi edi.
Loyiha o'tgan yili

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mening boshlig'im va shuningdek
o'g'lim Ola Rosling

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tomonidan ishga tushirildi. (Kulgi)
U tashkilotning hammuassisi

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hamda direktori hisoblanadi.

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Ola menga johillikka qarshi

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doimiy ravishda asosli

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kurashishimiz kerakligini aytdi.

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So'rovnomalarga ko'ra,
jamoatchilik tasodifiy

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javoblardan ko'ra yomonroq natija
ko'rsatmoqda. Demak, to'qima

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fikrlarga qarshi chora ko'rishimiz zarur.

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Eng keng tarqalgan
yanglish fikr bu dunyo

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daromadlari taqsimoti bilan bog'liq.

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Mana qarang. 1975-yilda 
ko'rsatkichlar shunday edi.

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Bu kunlik daromadi bir dollardan

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boshlanib o'sib boruvchi kishilar soni.

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(Qarsak)
Bu yerdagi bitta do'nglikni

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ko'ryapsizmi,
bu - kunlik daromadi

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bir dollar atrofida bo'lganlar,
bu esa

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daromadi 10-100 dollar bo'lgan

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kishilardan iborat boshqa bir do'nglik

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Dunyo ikki guruhga bo'lingan.

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Bu go'yo ikki o'rkachli tuya dunyosi edi:

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kambag'allar va boylar.

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O'rta sinf deyarli yo'q edi.

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Ammo bu qanday o'zgarganiga 
e'tibor qarating:

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vaqt o'tishi bilan

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dunyo aholisi ko'payib bordi,

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«o'rkachlar» esa birlasha boshladi.

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Pastki do'nglik 
yuqoridagisi bilan birlashdi

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va ikki o'rkachli tuyamiz

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bir o'rkachli tuyaga aylandi.

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Qashshoqlik ko'rsatkichi kamaydi.

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Shunga qaramay,
ko'pchilik odamlar

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qashshoqlikda qolayotgani dahshatli.

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Haligacha bir milliardga yaqin kishi 
qashshoqlikda yashaydi,

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ammo endi buni tugatish mumkin.
Bizning oldimizda

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turgan vazifa – 
to'qima fikrlardan uzoq turish,

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ko'pchilik aholi 
qayerda joylashganini tushunish.

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Bu savolning o'zida juda 
aniq ko'rsatilgan.

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Biz dunyo bo'yicha 
bir yoshli bolalarning

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necha foizi qizamiqqa va

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boshqa kasalliklarga qarshi

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vaksina oladi, deb so'radik:

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20, 50 yoki 80 foizmi?
Bu amerikaliklar va

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shvedlar bergan javoblar.
Shvedlar ko'rsatgan

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natijaga qarang:

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to'g'ri javob qaysiligini bilib olasiz.

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(Kulgi)

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Jin ursin, bu mamlakatdagi global 
sog'liqni saqlash professori kim o'zi?

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Ochig'i, o'sha professor menman.

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(Kulgi)

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Bu oson ish emas, ishoning menga.

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(Qarsak)

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Biz nimani bilishimizni 
aniq hisoblash uchun Ola qo'llagan

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uslub gazetalarda shov-shuvga 
sabab bo'ldi. CNN ushbu

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natijalarni o'z veb-saytida 
e'lon qildi va mushtariylarga

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savollar berdi.
Millionlab kishilar javob

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berishdi va maqola ostida, menimcha, 
2000 ga yaqin sharhlar qoldirildi.

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O'sha sharhlardan birida:
"Garov bog'lashim

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mumkinki, OAV xodimlarining hech biri 
testdan o’tmagan", deyiladi.

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Shunda Ola menga: "Sizni taklif
qilishgan matbuot

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konferensiyalariga borib, qurilma-

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larni tarqating. Test topshirishsin,
OAV nimani

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bilishini ko'raylikchi", dedi.

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Marhamat, birinchi marta
AQSh matbuot konferensiyada

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qo'lga kiritilgan norasmiy natijalar.

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Bu esa Yevropa Ittifoqi 
OAV laridagi ahvol.

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(Kulgi)
Ko'rib turibsizki,

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muammo odamlarning
ommaviy axborot vositalarini

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o'qimasliklari va
tinglamasliklarida emas.

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Muammo shundaki, OAV larning 
o'zlari hech nimani bilmaydi.

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Endi nima qildik, Ola?

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Senda biror fikr bormi?

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(Qarsak)

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Ola Rosling: Ha, menda bir fikr bor. 
Ammo birinchi navbatda

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shimpanzelarga mag'lub bo'lganingizdan 
afsusdaligimni aytishga ijozat bersangiz.

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Yaxshiyamki, sizga tasalli bera olaman:

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nima uchun bu sizning aybingiz emasligini 
ko'rsataman. Keyin,

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kelajakda shimpanzelarni
yutishingizda

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yordam beruvchi ba'zi
maslahatlarni beraman.

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Odatda shunday qilaman.
Keling, nega dunyo

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haqida bu qadar kam bilishimizni tushunib

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olaylik.
Hammasi shundan boshlanadi.

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Bu Hudiksvall, 
Shvetsiya shimolidagi shahar.

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Bu men ulg'aygan shaharcha.

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Unda bir katta muammo bor,

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aslida, siz o'sib-ulg'aygan

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joylarda ham xuddi

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shunday muammo kuzatiladi.

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Shaharcha oddiy yashash joyi emas.
U menga

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sayyorada hayot qanday kechayotgani haqida
juda xato

208
00:09:20,025 --> 00:09:22,373
tasavvur bergan. Mana u, bilimsizlik
piramidasiga

209
00:09:22,373 --> 00:09:25,365
qo'yilgan birinchi tosh. Biz xato shaxsiy
tasavvurlarimiz bilan

210
00:09:25,365 --> 00:09:26,637
dunyoga boqamiz.
Biz yashab

211
00:09:26,637 --> 00:09:28,750
katta bo'lgan joylardagi kishilar bilan

212
00:09:28,750 --> 00:09:30,390
muloqot bunga ta'sir ko'rsatadi.

213
00:09:30,390 --> 00:09:33,377
Keyin esa maktabga 
qatnay boshlaymiz

214
00:09:33,377 --> 00:09:35,298
va muammo yana bittaga ko'payadi.

215
00:09:35,298 --> 00:09:36,442
Menga maktablar yoqadi,

216
00:09:36,442 --> 00:09:41,529
lekin o'qituvchilar 
eskirgan dunyoqarashni o'rgatadi.

217
00:09:41,529 --> 00:09:44,130
Ular maktabga qatnagan paytida bilim oldi

218
00:09:44,130 --> 00:09:46,683
va endi dunyo haqidagi shu bilimlarini

219
00:09:46,683 --> 00:09:48,889
o'quvchilarga beg'araz o'rgatishadi.

220
00:09:48,889 --> 00:09:51,118
Nashr etilgan kitoblar, 
shubhasiz, eskirgan,

221
00:09:51,118 --> 00:09:54,049
axir dunyo doimiy o'zgarishda.

222
00:09:54,049 --> 00:09:55,296
O'quv materiallarini

223
00:09:55,296 --> 00:09:58,545
yangilab turish o'ta mushkul.

224
00:09:58,545 --> 00:10:00,529
Mana biz nimaga e'tibor qaratyapmiz.

225
00:10:00,529 --> 00:10:02,098
Eskirgan faktlar

226
00:10:02,098 --> 00:10:05,032
xato shaxsiy tasavvurlarimiz 
ustiga qo'shiladi.

227
00:10:05,032 --> 00:10:07,508
Bunga OAV ning ta'siri qanday?

228
00:10:07,508 --> 00:10:10,025
Yaxshi jurnalist qaysi voqeani yoritsa,

229
00:10:10,025 --> 00:10:12,431
«duv-duv gap» bo'lishini biladi.
Odamlar shov-shuv

230
00:10:12,431 --> 00:10:15,030
yangilik yoritilgan shu gazetani
sotib olib o'qiydi.

231
00:10:15,030 --> 00:10:18,995
G'ayrioddiy voqealar 
ko'proq qiziqish uyg'otadi, to'g'rimi?

232
00:10:18,995 --> 00:10:20,710
Ko'p narsalar bo'rttirib

233
00:10:20,710 --> 00:10:24,139
ko'rsatiladi, ayniqsa biz 
qo'rqadigan narsalar.

234
00:10:24,139 --> 00:10:26,567
Shvedga akula hujumi 
bir necha hafta davomida

235
00:10:26,567 --> 00:10:30,282
Shvetsiya gazetalari 
sarlavhalaridan tushmaydi.

236
00:10:30,282 --> 00:10:34,001
Mazkur uchta xato axborot manbalaridan

237
00:10:34,001 --> 00:10:37,276
qutilish juda qiyin.
Ular bizga axborot

238
00:10:37,276 --> 00:10:38,907
hujumi uyushtirib, ongimizni

239
00:10:38,907 --> 00:10:42,713
g'alati fikrlar bilan to'ldiradi.

240
00:10:42,713 --> 00:10:45,450
Kamiga ichki sezgimiz ham

241
00:10:45,450 --> 00:10:50,716
xato fikrlashimizga xizmat qiladi.
Intuitsiyamiz

242
00:10:50,716 --> 00:10:52,892
evolyutsiya jarayonida 
muhim rol o'ynagan.

243
00:10:52,892 --> 00:10:54,150
U bizga ma'lumotni umum

244
00:10:54,150 --> 00:10:56,408
-lashtirib, tez xulosa chiqarishga
yordam

245
00:10:56,408 --> 00:11:00,376
bergan. U biz qo'rqqan narsalarni 
bo'rttirib ko'rsatadi

246
00:11:00,376 --> 00:11:03,660
va yo'q joydan falokat qidira boshlaymiz.

247
00:11:03,660 --> 00:11:08,597
O'zimizga nisbatan yolg'ondakam 
ishonch paydo bo'ladi. Masalan,

248
00:11:08,597 --> 00:11:11,603
o'zimizni eng zo'r haydovchimiz,
hech bo'lmaganda o'rtachadan

249
00:11:11,603 --> 00:11:13,343
yaxshiroq haydovchimiz deb ishonamiz

250
00:11:13,343 --> 00:11:14,705
Bu savolga hamma "Ha, men

251
00:11:14,705 --> 00:11:15,974
mashinani yaxshi
haydayman"

252
00:11:15,974 --> 00:11:18,271
deb javob beradi. 
Bu evolyutsiyaga yaxshi ta'sir

253
00:11:18,271 --> 00:11:20,104
ko'rsatdi, ammo hozir dunyoqarash

254
00:11:20,104 --> 00:11:22,966
haqida gap ketganda, so'rov natijalarining
yomonligiga aynan

255
00:11:22,966 --> 00:11:25,889
mana shu sababchi. 
Sizning xayolingizda ko'tarilayotgan

256
00:11:25,889 --> 00:11:27,471
ko'rsatkichlar aslida pasaymoqda

257
00:11:27,471 --> 00:11:31,471
va aksincha. Bunday hollarda shimpanzelar
ichki sezgimizni o'zimizga qarshi

258
00:11:31,471 --> 00:11:34,911
ishlatmoqda, chunki u kuchimiz bo'lish 
o'rniga kuchsizligimizga aylandi.

259
00:11:34,911 --> 00:11:37,394
Intuitsiyamiz bizning kuchli
tarafimiz bo'lishi kerak

260
00:11:37,394 --> 00:11:39,766
emasmidi? Bu muammolarni
qanday hal qilishimiz

261
00:11:39,766 --> 00:11:41,441
mumkin?
Dastlab, biz uning ko'lamini

262
00:11:41,441 --> 00:11:42,843
aniqlashimiz, keyin munosib

263
00:11:42,843 --> 00:11:45,375
yechim topishimiz kerak.
Muammo hajmini o'lchash bilan

264
00:11:45,375 --> 00:11:47,699
biz qanchalik bilimsiz
ekanimizni tushunamiz.

265
00:11:47,699 --> 00:11:49,235
So'rovnomalarni o'tgan yili

266
00:11:49,235 --> 00:11:51,704
boshladik va endi butun dunyoda
bilimsizlik

267
00:11:51,704 --> 00:11:55,285
odamlarni qanchalik zaharlayotganini
bilib olyapmiz.

268
00:11:55,285 --> 00:11:58,898
Asosiy g'oyamiz – uning ko'lamini aniqlash
va xalqaro bilim va global

269
00:11:58,898 --> 00:12:00,875
rivojlanishning asosan qaysi sohalarida

270
00:12:00,875 --> 00:12:03,423
uchratishimizni tushunish – 
xoh u iqlim o'zgarishi,

271
00:12:03,423 --> 00:12:07,505
yo'qolib ketayotgan turlar, 
inson huquqlari bo'lsin,

272
00:12:07,505 --> 00:12:10,715
xoh gender tengligi, 
energetika yoki moliya.

273
00:12:10,715 --> 00:12:13,448
Bu sohalarning barchasi 
faktlarga to'la

274
00:12:13,448 --> 00:12:15,044
va bu faktlardan kishilarni

275
00:12:15,044 --> 00:12:16,970
xabardor qiluvchi tashkilotlar mavjud.

276
00:12:16,970 --> 00:12:20,674
Men ularning bir nechtasi, jumladan,

277
00:12:20,674 --> 00:12:24,015
Butunjahon Yovvoyi Tabiat Fondi, 
Xalqaro Amnistiya va YUNISEF

278
00:12:24,015 --> 00:12:26,613
bilan bog'lanib,
jamoatchilik bexabar bo'lgan eng

279
00:12:26,613 --> 00:12:28,506
ajoyib faktlari qaysiligini so'radim.

280
00:12:28,506 --> 00:12:30,084
O'sha faktlarni to'plab chiqdim.

281
00:12:30,084 --> 00:12:33,619
250 ta faktdan iborat uzun ro'yxatni
tasavvur qiling. Keyin biz odamlarga

282
00:12:33,619 --> 00:12:34,918
ular to'g'risida savollar

283
00:12:34,918 --> 00:12:36,855
beramiz va qayerda bilimlari sustligini

284
00:12:36,855 --> 00:12:38,201
bilib olamiz.
Faqat dahshatli

285
00:12:38,201 --> 00:12:39,257
natijalar ko'rsatilgan

286
00:12:39,257 --> 00:12:41,806
savollar qisqa ro'yxatda qoladi,
Hans sizga bergan

287
00:12:41,806 --> 00:12:43,723
savollar singari.
Bunday natijali

288
00:12:43,723 --> 00:12:44,938
so'rovlarni aniqlash katta

289
00:12:44,938 --> 00:12:47,783
qiyinchilik tug'dirmaydi. Xo'sh, bu qisqa
faktlar ro'yxatini

290
00:12:47,783 --> 00:12:51,909
nima qilamiz? Biz buni 
bilimlar sertifikatiga, dunyo haqidagi

291
00:12:51,909 --> 00:12:53,771
bilimlar sertifikatiga aylantiramiz.

292
00:12:53,771 --> 00:12:57,530
Agar siz yirik tashkilot, 
maktab, universitet yoki

293
00:12:57,539 --> 00:13:00,429
axborot agentligi bo'lsangiz, 
undan global bilimlardan voqif

294
00:13:00,429 --> 00:13:04,057
ekanligingizni tasdiqlashda 
foydalanishingiz mumkin. Shu tariqa

295
00:13:04,057 --> 00:13:07,020
biz savollarga shimpanzega o'xshab
javob beradigan xodimlarni

296
00:13:07,020 --> 00:13:09,290
yollamayotganimizga ishonch hosil qilamiz.

297
00:13:09,290 --> 00:13:11,650
Albatta, bunday qilmasligimiz kerak.

298
00:13:11,650 --> 00:13:13,921
Ehtimol 10 yildan keyin, agar ushbu

299
00:13:13,921 --> 00:13:15,913
loyiha muvaffaqiyatli yakunlansa, siz

300
00:13:15,913 --> 00:13:18,161
ish uchun intervyuda o'tirib, 
dunyo haqidagi

301
00:13:18,161 --> 00:13:22,367
global bilimlaringizni 
sinovdan o'tkazishingiz kerak bo'ladi.

302
00:13:22,367 --> 00:13:25,730
Endi amaliy qismga o'tsak.
Qanday qilib shuncha

303
00:13:25,730 --> 00:13:27,634
ma'lumotni o'zlashtirish mumkin?

304
00:13:27,634 --> 00:13:31,213
Buning usullaridan biri, albatta,

305
00:13:31,213 --> 00:13:32,950
kechasi bilan

306
00:13:32,950 --> 00:13:35,105
barcha hisobotlarni o'qib,

307
00:13:35,105 --> 00:13:36,873
faktlarni yodlab chiqish.

308
00:13:36,873 --> 00:13:38,885
Bu hech qanaqasiga ish bermaydi.

309
00:13:38,885 --> 00:13:41,594
Hatto Hans ham buni 
imkonsiz deb o'ylaydi. Odamlarning

310
00:13:41,594 --> 00:13:42,967
bunga vaqti yetmaydi.

311
00:13:42,967 --> 00:13:46,350
Ularga qisqa yo'l yoqadi va mana u.
Biz ichki sezgimizni

312
00:13:46,350 --> 00:13:49,124
yana o'z foydamizga ishlatishimiz,
umumlashtirishni

313
00:13:49,124 --> 00:13:50,568
o'rganishimiz kerak.

314
00:13:50,568 --> 00:13:52,673
Men sizga empirik qonuniyatlar orqali

315
00:13:52,673 --> 00:13:55,223
yanglish tasavvurlarni fosh etishning

316
00:13:55,223 --> 00:13:58,431
bir qancha usullarini o'rgataman.

317
00:13:58,431 --> 00:14:00,445
Birinchi eng keng tarqalgan

318
00:14:00,445 --> 00:14:02,082
xato tushunchadan boshlasak:

319
00:14:02,082 --> 00:14:03,948
atrofdagi hamma narsa yomonlashmoqda.

320
00:14:03,948 --> 00:14:07,218
Bu haqda eshitgansiz, 
o'zingiz ham xuddi shunday o'ylagansiz.

321
00:14:07,218 --> 00:14:10,247
Boshqa o'ylash ham mumkin: 
ko'p narsalar yaxshilanmoqda.

322
00:14:10,247 --> 00:14:12,383
Oldingizdagi savolga 
nima deb javob berishni

323
00:14:12,383 --> 00:14:15,616
bilmaysiz. "Yaxshilanmoqda" degan javobni 
taxmin qilishingiz kerak.

324
00:14:15,616 --> 00:14:18,600
Ijobiy variantni tanglang. 
Pessimist bo'lmang, bu

325
00:14:18,600 --> 00:14:20,963
yaxshiroq natija ko'rsatishingizda
yordam beradi.

326
00:14:20,963 --> 00:14:22,179
(Qarsak)

327
00:14:22,179 --> 00:14:26,405
Bu birinchisi.
Endi boy va kambag'allar masalasi.

328
00:14:26,405 --> 00:14:28,164
Hamma ular o'rtasidagi tafovut

329
00:14:28,164 --> 00:14:29,630
o'sib boryapti deb o'ylaydi.

330
00:14:29,630 --> 00:14:31,285
Dahshatli tengsizlikda yashaymiz.

331
00:14:31,285 --> 00:14:33,486
Ha, dunyoda tengsizlik mavjud,
lekin ma'lumot-

332
00:14:33,486 --> 00:14:35,811
-larga qarasangiz, 
birgina do'nglik mavjud.

333
00:14:35,811 --> 00:14:37,665
Agar ikkilansangiz,

334
00:14:37,665 --> 00:14:40,418
"ko'pchilik aholi o'rtamiyona" 
degan variantni tanglang.

335
00:14:40,418 --> 00:14:42,401
Bu to'g'ri javob berishingizga
yordam

336
00:14:42,401 --> 00:14:46,108
beradi.
Keyingi xato tushuncha quyidagicha:

337
00:14:46,108 --> 00:14:49,733
davlatlar va odamlar 
ijtimoiy taraqqiyotga erishishi,

338
00:14:49,733 --> 00:14:52,059
qizlarini maktabga yuborishi
va tabiiy ofatlardan

339
00:14:52,059 --> 00:14:55,510
himoyalanishi uchun 
juda boy bo'lishlari kerak.

340
00:14:55,510 --> 00:14:57,196
Bu mutlaqo xato.

341
00:14:57,196 --> 00:14:59,316
O'rtadagi ulkan do'nglik
qizlarning maktab

342
00:14:59,316 --> 00:15:01,759
ta'limi allaqachon ta'minlanganini
ko'rsatadi.

343
00:15:01,759 --> 00:15:04,087
Agar ikkilansangiz, elektr quvvati 
va qizlar

344
00:15:04,087 --> 00:15:05,482
ta'limi kabi savollar uchun

345
00:15:05,482 --> 00:15:08,525
"ko'pchilikda allaqachon bor" 
variantini tanlang.

346
00:15:08,525 --> 00:15:10,741
Bular empirik qonuniyatlar xolos,
shuning uchun

347
00:15:10,741 --> 00:15:13,131
ularni hamma narsaga tadbiq etib
bo'lmaydi, ammo

348
00:15:13,131 --> 00:15:14,788
siz shu tariqa umumlashtirishingiz

349
00:15:14,788 --> 00:15:16,753
mumkin.
So'nggi misolga to'xtalsak.

350
00:15:16,753 --> 00:15:20,054
Bu ajoyib misol:

351
00:15:20,054 --> 00:15:22,227
akulalar xavfli.

352
00:15:22,227 --> 00:15:26,626
Bu xato fikr, ya'ni ular xavfli,

353
00:15:26,626 --> 00:15:29,602
ammo xalqaro statistikada 
muhim ahamiyatga ega emas.

354
00:15:29,602 --> 00:15:32,133
Men ham akulalardan juda qo'rqaman.

355
00:15:32,133 --> 00:15:34,977
Sizga qo'rquv soladigan 
masalalar to'g'risida

356
00:15:34,977 --> 00:15:37,910
savollarga ko'zingiz tushishi bilan,

357
00:15:37,910 --> 00:15:40,948
xoh zilzila, boshqa dinlar bo'lsin,
xoh terroristlar

358
00:15:40,948 --> 00:15:42,107
yoki akula,

359
00:15:42,107 --> 00:15:44,608
javobda ularni bo'rttirib yuborasiz.

360
00:15:44,608 --> 00:15:46,445
Bu Bosh barmoq qoidasi.

361
00:15:46,445 --> 00:15:48,604
Xavfli narsalar ajoyib bo'lishi mumkin.

362
00:15:48,604 --> 00:15:52,189
Akulalar juda oz sonli kishilarni 
o'ldiradi. Siz mana shunday o'ylashingiz

363
00:15:52,189 --> 00:15:55,927
kerak.
Ushbu to'rt qoidaga tayanib,

364
00:15:55,927 --> 00:15:59,287
siz harqalay shimpanzelarga qaraganda 
yaxshiroq javob bersangiz kerak,

365
00:15:59,287 --> 00:16:01,241
chunki ular bunday qilolmaydi.

366
00:16:01,241 --> 00:16:03,844
Ular bunday qoidalarni 
umumlashtira olmaydi.

367
00:16:03,844 --> 00:16:07,856
Umid qilamanki, 
dunyo haqidagi bilimlaringizni yaxshilay

368
00:16:07,856 --> 00:16:10,691
olasiz va kun kelib shimpanzelarni
ortda qoldirasiz.

369
00:16:10,691 --> 00:16:14,612
(Qarsak)

370
00:16:19,160 --> 00:16:21,248
Bu tizimli yondashuv.

371
00:16:21,248 --> 00:16:23,812
Bularning barchasi biz uchun 
qanchalar muhim?

372
00:16:23,812 --> 00:16:26,538
Ha, qashshoqlik, 
o'ta qashshoqlik nimaligini

373
00:16:26,538 --> 00:16:29,785
va unga qarshi qanday kurashishni 
tushunish muhim, qizlarga

374
00:16:29,785 --> 00:16:31,830
qanday ta'lim berishni 
tushunish muhim.

375
00:16:31,830 --> 00:16:36,170
Bu borada muvaffaqiyat qozonayotganimizni 
anglaganimizda, biz buni tushuib yetamiz.

376
00:16:36,170 --> 00:16:37,982
Ammo aholining boy qatlami haqida

377
00:16:37,982 --> 00:16:40,436
qayg'uruvchilar uchun bu muhimmi?

378
00:16:40,436 --> 00:16:42,480
Ishonamanki, o'ta muhim,

379
00:16:42,480 --> 00:16:43,989
ayni o'sha sababga ko'ra.

380
00:16:43,989 --> 00:16:47,054
Agar dunyoqarashingiz 
faktlarga asoslangan bo'lsa,

381
00:16:47,054 --> 00:16:48,672
kelajakda bizni nimalar

382
00:16:48,672 --> 00:16:50,426
kutishi mumkinligini tushuna olasiz.

383
00:16:50,426 --> 00:16:52,864
1975-yildagi ikkita do'nglikka qaytamiz.

384
00:16:52,864 --> 00:16:54,214
Shu yili men tug'ilganman,

385
00:16:54,214 --> 00:16:57,233
bu yerda G'arb

386
00:16:57,233 --> 00:17:01,416
Yevropa Ittifoqi mamlakatlari 
va Shimoliy Amerikani o'z ichiga oladi.

387
00:17:01,416 --> 00:17:04,799
Keling, boylik nuqtai nazaridan 
G'arb bilan

388
00:17:04,799 --> 00:17:06,880
qolgan dunyoni solishtirib ko'raylik.

389
00:17:06,880 --> 00:17:09,131
Bu dam olish uchun samolyotda

390
00:17:09,131 --> 00:17:12,709
chet elga uchishga 
qurbi yetadigan kishilar.

391
00:17:12,709 --> 00:17:16,017
1975-yilda ularning faqat 30 foizi

392
00:17:16,017 --> 00:17:18,984
Yevropa Ittifoqi va Shimoliy Amerikadan 
tashqarida yashagan.

393
00:17:18,984 --> 00:17:21,313
Ammo bu holat hozir o'zgargan.

394
00:17:21,313 --> 00:17:26,056
2014-yilgacha bo'lgan 
o'zgarishlarni ko'rib chiqsak.

395
00:17:26,056 --> 00:17:27,444
Bugungi ko'rsatkich 50/50.

396
00:17:27,444 --> 00:17:31,125
G'arb hukmronligi orqada qoldi.

397
00:17:31,125 --> 00:17:33,324
Bu juda yaxshi. Endi nima bo'ladi?

398
00:17:33,324 --> 00:17:36,567
Katta do'nglik va u qanday 
harakatlangani esingizdami?

399
00:17:36,567 --> 00:17:42,598
Men kichik tajriba o'tkazdim. Xalqaro 
valyuta jamg'armasi veb-saytiga kirdim.

400
00:17:42,598 --> 00:17:46,761
U yerda keyingi besh yilda YaIMning aholi
jon boshiga qiymati prognozi joylangan.

401
00:17:46,761 --> 00:17:49,778
Uni grafikda aks ettirib, mamlakatlarda

402
00:17:49,778 --> 00:17:53,113
daromad tengsizligi o'zgarishsiz 
qolishini ko'rsatishim mumkin.

403
00:17:53,113 --> 00:17:55,040
Ammo bu bilan cheklanib qolmadim.

404
00:17:55,040 --> 00:17:58,218
Rivojlanish tezligini o'zgartirmagan
holda o'sha besh yillik

405
00:17:58,218 --> 00:18:03,495
prognozni keyingi 20 yilga tadbiq qildim. 
Bu tajriba haqiqatga aylanishi mumkin.

406
00:18:03,495 --> 00:18:04,862
Kelajakka o'taylik.

407
00:18:04,862 --> 00:18:10,082
2020-yilda bunday kishilarning 57 foizi 
YI va Amerikadan tashqarida yashaydi.

408
00:18:10,082 --> 00:18:13,118
2025-yilda 63 foizi. 2030-yilda 68 foizi.
2035-yilga kelib

409
00:18:13,118 --> 00:18:17,312
esa boshqa mamlakatlar boy iste'mol
bozori bo'yicha G'arbni ortda qoldiradi.

410
00:18:17,312 --> 00:18:21,506
Bu aholi jon boshiga YaIMning 
kelajakdagi prognozlari xolos.

411
00:18:21,506 --> 00:18:25,702
Boy iste'molchilarning 73 foizi

412
00:18:25,702 --> 00:18:28,057
Amerika va Yevropadan tashqarida yashaydi.

413
00:18:28,057 --> 00:18:31,675
Kelajakda faktlarga asoslangan qarorlar
qabul qilayotganiga ishonch

414
00:18:31,675 --> 00:18:35,873
hosil qilishi uchun kompaniyalar mazkur 
sertifikatdan foydalansa,

415
00:18:35,873 --> 00:18:39,280
yomon bo'lmasdi deb o'ylayman.

416
00:18:39,280 --> 00:18:40,756
Katta rahmat.

417
00:18:40,756 --> 00:18:43,257
(Qarsaklar)

418
00:18:48,184 --> 00:18:50,236
Bruno Jussani: Hans va Ola Rosling