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We live in a world of relentless change.
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Huge migrations of people to new mega cities
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filling soaring skyscrapers
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and vast slums.
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Ravenous appetites for fuel and food,
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unpredictable climate change
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and all this in a world where the population is still growing.
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Should we be worried?
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Should we be scared?
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How to make sense of it all?
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7 billion people now live on this planet of ours. Isn't it beautiful?
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But when some people think about the world and its future, they panic!
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Others prefer not to think about it all.
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But tonight I’m going to show you how things really are.
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My name is Hans Rosling. I’m a statistician at….
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NO, NO, NO, NO! Don’t switch off!
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Because with the latest data from all countries I’m going to show you the world in a new way.
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I’m going to tell you how world population is changing
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and what today’s data tell us about how the future of the world will be.
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We undeniably face huge challenges
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but the good news is that the future may not be quite as gloomy
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and that mankind is already doing better than many of you think!
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Don't Panic!
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The Truth About Population
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with professor Hans Rosling
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Babies.
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Each one a blessing.
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But many people think population growth is out of control.
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Some even talk of a population bomb!
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Are they right?
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So where are we with population today? And how did we get here?
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I am going to tell you a history about everyone who ever lived!
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Well, at least during the last some 1000 years.
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Here we go.
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I give you 2 axes.
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This is time in years, and this one here is world population in billions.
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In the year 10,000 BC, when the first people where becoming farmers, then the archeologists estimate
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that the world population was only 10 million.
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Imagine: 10 million! That’s is like Sweden today!
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A world of only Swedes!
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But then, as the millennia passed by, more farmers, food and people, and great empires could emerge.
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Egypt, China, India, and finally Europe.
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And population continued to grow, but very slowly.
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And I stop here, at the year 1800.
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Because it was in 1800 that the world population became 1 billion.
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Imagine… All that time, the population growth was just a tiny fraction of a percent, through thousands of years.
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But here in 1800, with the industrial revolution, everything changed and population started to grow faster.
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In little more than 100 years, it reached 2 billions.
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And then, when I was in school, it was 3 billion.
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And many people said: ‘The planet can not support more people.’ Even experts said that.
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But what happened was this...
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We became 4 billion… 5 billion… 6 billion… 7 billion!
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Imagine… More than half of the world population have been added during my lifetime.
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And the number is still rising.
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Most of the population growth, in recent years, has been in Asian countries.
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Like here, in Bangladesh, where the population has tripled during my lifetime.
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From 50 million to more than 150 million.
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It is now one of the most densely populated countries in the world.
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Some 15 million already live in the very crowded capital Dhaka.
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People here, whether in the city or the countryside, are intensely concerned about the size of families.
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But a new Bangladesh is emerging…
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Like the Khan family. Mom Taslima, daughters Tanjina and little Sadia.
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And dad Hannan.
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Women take agest to get ready, men don't take as long.
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If you're going to wipe it off with your hands, why put it on?
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Both Taslima and Hannan come from large families themselves.
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But they’ve decided to have just 2 children.
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In Bangladesh there's slogan you hear everywhere.
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"No more than two kids - one is even better!"
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It's lucky I only have two kids.
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If I had more I couldn't afford it.
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With two kids, I can buy what they want.
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My pockets are empty now!
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Taslima and Hannan are part of a cultural shift away from big families.
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And for Taslima, it has also become a job.
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She works for the government Family Planning Service
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which employs women like her in every village.
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She goes door-to-door, to try to help others to have smaller families too.
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When was your last period?
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It was on the 22nd.
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So you're not using any method of contraception?
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Won't it be a problem if you conceive?
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I don't get pregnant easily.
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But you already have two children.
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I don't have time to go to the clinic.
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Taslima offers advice, moral support and most importantly,
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a range of contraceptives.
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You've got three daughters - do you really want to have any more kids?
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It's up to the father.
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You're the one giving birth, why is it up to him?
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You have to go through the pain, he doesn't.
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Who has to go through the pain?
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I go through the pain, but if he wants a boy what can I do?
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Here's the pill, take them when you start your period
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It can be hard to get through to them when they're less educated.
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But gradually we're getting the message across.
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So how successful has Taslima and Bangladesh been in reducing fertility rate?
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That is the number of babies born per woman.
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In Sweden we set up the Gapminder Foundation
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to make the world’s data available in a way that everyone can understand.
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So I can show you the situation in Bangladesh and what has happened.
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Here, a horizontal axis, babies per woman.
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All the way from 1 to 2…. 7 to 8.
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and here a vertical axis, that is lifespan,
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life expectancy, how many years a newborn can expect to live.
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From 30 all the way up to 90.
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Now… we start in 1972
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a very important year for Bangladesh, the first full year of independence.
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That year, Bangladesh was over there
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and they had on average 7 babies per woman
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and lifespan was less than 50 years.
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So what has happened after independence?
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Has life become longer in Bangladesh? Have children become fewer?
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Here is the data. I start Bangladesh
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Indeed, life is getting longer and babies, fewer… 6… 5…
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and life even longer… 4…3…
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and they land now almost in 2. It’s 2.2. And the lifespan is 70.
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It’s absolutely amazing! In 40 years, Bangladesh has gone
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from 7… 6… 5… 4… 3… 2…
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It’s a miracle that has happened in Bangladesh!
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But is it only in Bangladesh? Well, I will show you the whole world.
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I will go back 50 years in time, to 1963.
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Here are all the countries.
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These green ones are America, north and south. The yellow are Europe, east and west.
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Blue is Africa, north and south of the Sahaara. And red is Asia, and we include Australia and New Zealand.
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The size of the bubble shows the size of the population. Look:
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The big ones over there are China and India. And Bangladesh is just behind.
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In 1963 the average number of babies born per woman in the world was 5.
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But it was a divided world… can you see that?
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These countries over here, the developed countries, had small families and long lives.
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And then there were the developing countries, and they had large families and short lives.
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Very few countries were in between.
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But now we will see what has happened.
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I start the world!
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Here we go…
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You can see China, the big bubble, is getting better health
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and then they start family planning, they move along to smaller families.
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The big green, look at Mexico, it is coming there!
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This is Brazil, also the green in Latin America.
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And here India is following. The big red bubbles are Asian countries going this way.
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Many Africans are still with ‘many babies born per woman’.
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And then Bangladesh over there overtakes India on its way to the small family.
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And now almost all countries go up to this part, even Africa now starts to move up.
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Oooh! That was the earthquake in Haiti!
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And now everyone ends up there. What a change we have!
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Today, the average in the world is 2.5
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It used to be 5 fifty years ago.
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The world has changed: the average number of babies born per woman has gone from 5 to 2.5
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And it is still decreasing…. What a big change!
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People would think that Bangladesh and countries like that are some sort of epicenter of a population bomb.
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They couldn’t be more wrong.
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To me, health workers like Mrs. Taslima and their colleagues,
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who have taken their countries from this side… all over… in a few decades
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to much better health and small families, they are the heroes of our time!
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It is an amazing change that has happened.
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We no longer live in a divided world.
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But how much do people know about this amazing change?
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At Gapminder we not only show data, we also measure how much people know or don't know about the world.
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So we did the first survey in Sweden. The results were depressing!
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We did our second survey in Britain. We had high hopes, because the British had been all over the place.
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We thought we would get good results here.
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The first question we asked was: how many babies do women have on average in Bangladesh?
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And we gave four alternatives: 2.5, 3.5, 4.5 or 5.5
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This is the result of the British survey.
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But you know the right answer: it’s 2.5
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Only 12 percent of the British got it right.
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So we thought that perhaps it was those with low education who dragged down the result.
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So we segmented those who had been to the fine British universities and had an university degree.
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And here they are. This is the result.
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If anything, they did worse!
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So now you may conclude that the British lack knowledge about the world.
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No, no!
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What if I would have asked this chimp and his friends?
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I would have written the different answers on bananas and let them pick one banana each.
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This result I would get.
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Of course chimps know nothing about Bangladesh.
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But by pure randomness, they would pick twice as many correct answers as the British.
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More than half of the British people think it’s 4.5 or more.
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The problem here is not lack of knowledge, it is preconceived ideas.
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The British can not even imagine, cannot even guess
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that women in Banglash have 2.5 babies in average. And it is really 2.2 already.
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This is what the British don’t know: that Taslima and her family are the norm in Bangladesh, the most common family size.
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And it’s not only there, it’s all over the world. In Brazil, 2 child families.
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Vietnam, 2 child families.
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And even in India, the most common family size is 2 children today.
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And also if you go to the African continent, you go the big cities like Addis Ababa.
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There are less than 2 children per woman in Addis Ababa.
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There can be Muslin, Buddhist, Hindu, Christian…
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There is not one religion, not one culture, not one continent
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where 2 child families can not happen.
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This change from big families down to 2 child families
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is one of the most important things that have happened in the world during my lifetime.
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It is unprecedented in human history!
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Here we are, back in Bangladesh.
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Let’s find the reasons behind this historic and continuing shift from large to small families.
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Almost all girls in Muslim Bangladesh, like 15-year-old Tanjina, go to school today.
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The government now even pays families money to keep their daughters on at secondary level.
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At Tanjina’s school boys are now outnumbered by girls.
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What type of family is this?
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A big family!
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Will they be short of food?
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You could hardly miss the point of this lesson.
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What type of family is this?
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Will they face any difficulties?
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No!
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Education is effective and there are also new opportunities for Bangladeshi women.
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Despite continuing inequalities, there are more jobs and Tanjina is aiming high.
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I love going to school
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In my mother's day, they used to get married young
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They had no chance to study
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But now we can have big dreams of becoming a doctor or an engineer
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More and more young women here are seeing how different things could be for them.
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I can't imagine how you got married at 17
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I couldn't dream of getting married in two years' time
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It's impossible
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We didn't understand back then
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But people know better now
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So what age are you thinking of getting married?
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Twenty five
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I'll finish my education and get a job
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I'll become a doctor and get married after that
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You're very smart!
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It is wonderful to see Taslima so full of hope for a bright future for her two daughters.
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But one essential transformation underpins the change in Bangladesh.
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It’s a dramatic improvement in child survival.
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It’s Ramadan, the Muslim month of fasting and reflection.
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At this auspicious time, Hanan is helping his parents to tend the family graveyard.
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Press the soil down with your hands
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Three of Hannan’s siblings died when they were very young. They are buried here.
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They died of measles
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We cried so much, it was so sad
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If doctors had been there they could have been treated
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One might have survived
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How can I forget? I will remember them as long as I live
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Back when Hannan’s parents where a young couple,
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1 in 5 children in Bangladesh died before they reached 5 years of age.
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All families lived with a constant fear of losing one or more children.
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You'd carry on having one child after another
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Then if one died, you wouldn't have just one left
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That's how it was
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We didn't think we were having too many children, or what their future would be
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In the last few decades Bangladesh has made great progress in basic health, particularly in child survival.
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Vaccines, treatments of infections and better nutrition and hygiene
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have all saved the lives of millions of children.
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And as parents have come to see that all their children are now likely to survive,
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the biggest obstacle to family planning has at last gone.
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Even in the slums of Dhaka, women now have on average just 2 children.
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Child survival drives everything.
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Let’s go back into history.
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Why did the world population grow so slowly before 1800?
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Throughout history, all historical records show us that, on average
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2 parents got more or less 6 children.
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But that looks as a very fast population growth. So why didn’t it grow?
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Because 1… 2… 3… 4 of the children died before growing up to become parents themselves.
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People in the past never lived in ecological balance with nature,
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they died in ecological balance with nature.
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It was utterly tragic!
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But with the industrial revolution, this changed.
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Better wages, more food, tapped water, better sanitation, soap, medical advances....
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So from all these advances, why did the population grow? Was it because they got more children?
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No! In 1963 when I was at school, actually the number of children per woman had decreased a little in the world, to 5.
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And the reason for the fast population growth was the improved children survival.
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4 survived at that time.
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But still 1 out of 5 died, that was still terrible.
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It’s only in the recent decades that most countries have taken big leaps forward in child survival and in family planning.
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So that we are now approaching the new balance.
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And it’s a nice balance: 2 parents on average get 2 children that survive.
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We have families in a very happy balance.
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This is the most normal family situation in the world today.
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And what does it mean for the future here?
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I will show you the best projection into the future,
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from the finest demographers we have, at the Population Division of the United Nations.
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And it looks like this.
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It is going to continue first, up to 8… then it goes up to 9… and then it goes here…
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But see: it’s slowing down!
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By the end of the century it is becoming more flat there.
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And if I do a close-up on this, you can see
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that we are expecting a ’slowing down’ and the end of fast population growth.
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But of course this is a projection that has a certain degree of uncertainty.
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But we are sure that we are at the end of fast population growth within this century.
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It is all due to a remarkable effect of the falling fertility rate.
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Look here. If we go back into this
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I will show this by showing you the number of children in the world.
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The number of children from 0 to 15 years of age.
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Here they come. Look:
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The number of children there increased slowly… and then it also increased rapidly…
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So by the turn of the century here
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there were 2 billion children in the world.
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To me that was an important year because that was when Doris was born. That’s my first grandchild.
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She was born at a very special time for children in the world.
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Because the specialist demographers estimate that from this year
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the number of children in the world will continue like this.
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It will not increase any longer.
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By the end of the century we will still have 2 billion children in the world.
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When Doris was born was when the world entered into the age of peak child.
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The number of children are not increasing.
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Now, this will confuse you.
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Because… how can the total population grow like this, if the children don’t increase?
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Where will all these adults come from?
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And to explain that I have to leave this fancy digital stuff
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and show you real powerful educational material we have developed.
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I will show you the world population, ladies and gentleman...
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in the form of foam blocks.
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One block is 1 billion.
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And that means that we have 2 billion children in the world.
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Then we have 2 billion between 15 and 30 years of age.
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These are rounded numbers.
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We have 1 billion of 30 to 45 years of age,
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we have 1 billion of 45 to 60 years of age
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and then we have my block: 60 years and older. We are here on top.
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This is the world population today.
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You can see that there are 3 billions missing here.
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Only a few of them are missing because they have died.
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Most of them are missing because they were never born.
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Because before 1980 there were much fewer children born in the world
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because there were fewer women giving birth to children.
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So this is what we have today.
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Now what will happen in the future?
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Do you know what happens to old people like me?
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They die!
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Yes! There was someone here who works in hospitals.
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So… they die!
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The rest grows 15 years older and have 2 billion children.
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These ones are now old, time to die.
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And then these ones grow 15 years older and they have 2 billion children.
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This one die and the rest grow 15 years older and have 2 billion children.
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Ah!
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Without increasing the number of children,
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without increasing the length of life,
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we have 3 billion people more by this big and inevitable fill up of adults.
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which happen just when the large young generations grow up.
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Now there is one more detail, which is good news for the older ones here, like me.
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It is estimated that the old people will live a little longer.
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So we have to add 1 billion more for the old here on the top.
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And I’m desperately hoping that I will be part of that group.
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Because then I can live long and read annual statistics as they come, reporting every year…
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But when I talk to many fine environmental activists, who have a good concern about the environment
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they very often tell me ‘we have to stop population growth at 8 billion’.
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When I then talk to them… first, they don’t know that we have reached peak child.
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and then they are completely unaware that most of the remaining population growth is an inevitable fill up of adults.
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So we will end up with more or less this amount of people.
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So we know how many billions there will be. But what about where they live?
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Now and in the future.
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There you have the world and here are the 7 billion.
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Out of the 7 billion, 1 live in the America, north and south together.
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1 in Europe, 1 in Africa,
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and 4 in Asia.
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This is nowadays. But how to remember this?
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I have a simple way of remembering this: I put up the numbers like this
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and then I say this is the pin code of the world: 1114.
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Now, what will happen up to mid-century?
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That we know fairly well.
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Europe… no increase. In fact, the European population is decreasing.
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In America, a little more people. Mainly retired people in Latin America,
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So it makes no difference, it's almost the same.
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In Asia we will have 1 billion more.
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and then the population growth in Asia is over.
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In Africa, in the next 40 years, the population will double to 2 billion.
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Now… to the end of the century
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Well… we know quite well: no more people in Europe, no more in America, no more in Asia…
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But Africa is set, as we have data today, for another doubling.
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So there will be 4 billions in Africa.
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At 2100, and probably the final pin code will be 1145.
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So in 2100 there will be quite a different world.
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The people who live in what I call the old west,
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in west Europe and North America, will by then be less than 10 percent of the world population.
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80 percent of the world population will be living in Asia and Africa.
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But will there be resources enough to sustain them?
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Well, this will be a huge challenge and nothing will come automatically.
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But my take is that it is possible for all these billions to live well together.
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Certainly it's easy to see the potential for a prosperous and peaceful Asia, with 5 billion people.
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Japan, South Korea and others are already rich.
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Following them on the road to wealth, are larger and larger parts of China, India, Indonesia and many other Asian countries.
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Even in poorer Asian countries, more and more are getting a decent life.
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But what about a future Africa, of as much as 4 billion?
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Won’t most of them be living in terrible poverty?
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I have seen extreme poverty in Africa.
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30 years ago I spent the 2 most intense years of my life working as medical doctor
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in one of the poorest countries, Mozambique, on the east coast of Africa.
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Mozambique had just become independent after a long war against the colonial power Portugal.
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My job was to be 1 of 2 doctors, we were both foreigners, for 300,000 people.
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And this was the hospital. My wife was also there working as a midwife.
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This is the entire staff of the hospital.
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Those with white coats had the chance during the colonial period to get a professional training of at least one year.
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The others… many of them couldn’t even read or write.
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But they all worked with such dedication and motivation!
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But the patients came with the worse diseases of extreme poverty
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and our resources were often not enough,
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and especially my skills as a young doctor, did not meet the need of the patients.
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Mozambique is still today a very poor country.
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But things have improved immensely since I was there, 30 years ago.
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For a start, there is now a brand new hospital in the town where I worked 30 years ago.
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The new, much bigger hospital has 15 doctors and 11 of them are Mozambicans.
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All the staff are now well trained.
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The director of the hospital is Dr. Cashimo, the obstetrician.
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Everything indicates that…
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it's going to be…
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twins!
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The transformation here is amazing to me!
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We have accident and emergency…
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and paediatric and orthopaedic surgery
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We have big laboratories and a pharmacy that works 24 hours
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They routinely save women in child birth with cesareans, something that was impossible when I was there.
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Nowadays we can do it here, with a professional team…
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in an operating room equipped as well as anywhere else in the world
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Everything has improved so much.
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Those born in Mozambique today should have a much brighter future!
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Not just because of better health, but a booming economy too
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with busy ports and markets
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and new industries with lots of new jobs.
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I know you might be thinking that this good news is just about cities and towns.
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And it’s true!
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The worse challenge is in the rural areas, where most people live.
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But things are changing here too.
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Deep in rural northern Mozambique lies the district of Mogovolas.
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This is home for Olivia, Andre and their young family.
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Like so many other poor people in the world, Olivia and Andre are farmers.
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reliant on what they grow for what they eat.
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It’s 4 a.m. and the day’s tasks beckon.
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Andre heads straight to the fields.
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Olivia first goes to fetch water.
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Both have to walk miles to get anywhere.
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It takes me two hours to get there
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When it's busy it might take two hours
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When I get back I'm tired and hungry
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With no other means of transport, everything has to be carried.
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Olivia and Andre have 8 children.
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Fertility rates are still high in much of rural Africa.
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And it’s the poorest families who have the most mouths to feed.
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Anything this family can spare, they will sell.
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I'm really struggling
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I plant all kinds of crops but even with all the crops I grow…
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I still don't make enough money to provide for my children
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Yet economic growth is slowly trickling into the countryside.
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I saved up for three years to get this roof for my house
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Now Andre has set his sights on one thing he believes will change everything.
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I desperately need a bicycle. I can't get anywhere without one
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Bicycles can make a huge different to the lives of the rural poor.
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They save hours everyday and get so much more done.
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With a bicycle they can carry much heavier loads to the market.
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and earn more money.
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They can travel to find work
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and if they get sick, they can reach a health clinic in time.
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If I get a bicycle I'll be so happy
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Because a house without bicycle is not a home
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Andre and Olivia have been putting money away for 2 years. They haven’t quite enough yet.
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Everything now depends on the sesame seeds, which they are just harvesting.
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If they get can get a good price, they might just make it.
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Andre and Olivia live in one of the poorest countries.
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And they live in the rural area, which is the poorest part of that country.
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So how many people are there in the world living like them? And how many are there that are poor?
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I’m going to show you this yardstick.
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Very simple. Poor… and … rich.
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Here I have all the 7 billions again.
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They are in a very simplified way, lined up there from the poorest to the richest.
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Now, how much does the richest billion earn here, in dollars per day?
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Let's look here.
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Oh… oohhh…
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It’s coming up, it’s coming up….
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Ooh, yoi-yoi, yoi-yoi...
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I can’t even reach. $100 a day.
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Then let's look at the middle billion. How much do they earn?
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It will come just yet…. Just $10.
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And then I go over here to the poorest billion. How much to they get?
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Well…
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Just $1.
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This is the difference of the world today.
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The economists draw a line, which they call the line for extreme poverty.
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A little above $1.
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That’s when you hardly can have enough food to feed the family, you can not be sure that you have food all days.
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1 billion is clearly below that still.
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and second billion is sort of divided by that line.
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And then the others are above it.
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The poorest people can hardly afford to buy shoes.
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and when they get shoes… the next thing they will save for is bicycle.
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This is where Andre and Olivia are.
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And after bicycle, you will go for the motorbike.
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And then after the motorbike, it’s the car.
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And I remember when my family got the first car, it was a small grey Volkswagen.
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The first thing we did was to go to Norway on holiday, because Norway is so much more beautiful than Sweden.
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It was a fantastic trip!
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And now I’m in this group. I can go like the richest billion, we can go on holiday by airplanes.
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Of course there are people who are much richer than the airplane people.
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Some are so rich that they are even contemplating that they should go as tourists out into space.
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And the difference in income from the airplane people to the very richest over there
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is almost as big as it is from the airplane people here
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all the way down to the poorest in that side.
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Now, the most important to remember from this yardstick is this
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To show you this I need my stepladder.
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Sometimes you need some old well functioning technology also.
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Here.
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I can only reach up… Here they are, now I am at the top.
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The problem for us living on $100 a day is that when we look down
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on those who have $10 or $1 they look equally poor.
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We can’t see the difference.
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It looks as if everyone is living on the same amount of money.
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And they say "oh, they are all poor".
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No, I can assure you, because I’ve met and talked with people who live down here
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and I can assure you that the people down here
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they know very well how much better life would be if they would move from $1 to $10
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10 times as much income.
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This is a huge difference.
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To understand this, this is what Olivia and Andre are trying to do now.
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Each little step they take along this line here
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from the shoes towards the bicycle
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small as it may seem from far distance, make a huge difference in their life.
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And if Andre and Olivia would get that bicycle it would speed them along to better life and better wealth up in this end.
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Today, Andre and Olivia are preparing to sell the sesame crop they’ve been growing for many months.
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The price used to be 25 Meticais
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This year it's better
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We hope to sell it for 40-45 Meticais
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But Andre and Olivia will have to be careful if they are to get paid the proper price.
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We've found out that some buyers have been doctoring the scales
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So if we get it weighed ourselves and it's ten kilos…
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… then take it to the buyers, they might tell us it's seven or eight
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Andre is going to do the selling.
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And for the last time, he hopes, he has to get help to transport the crop to market.
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Andre now needs to keep his wits about him.
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Hey, hey my friend. Do the calculations properly!
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The deal is done. And Andre is happy with the price he’s got.
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Now I'm going to spend my money!
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It’s the moment the family have worked so hard for.
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Andre’s journey to market took all morning to walk.
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Now, in less than an hour, he can ride home.
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You bought a bicycle!
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Yes darling, I bought a bicycle!
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The bicycle is put to use at once.
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The children fetch water with it.
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Andre carries more crops to the market
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and, just as importantly, Olivia and Andre can now easily reach their lessons for adults
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so they can learn better maths and how to read and write.
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Now I want to save up to buy a motorbike to carry my wife and children
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That's what I want next
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It’s so great to see Olivia and Andre pedalling their way out of extreme poverty.
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And they use the bicycle to go to literacy classes.
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Education is so important for the progress of people and nations.
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But how many know what has really happened with education in the world?
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Time for the great British ignorance survey again
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Here we go.
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We asked what percent of adults in the world today are literate, can read and write?
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Can I ask the audience? How many guess 20 percent? Hands up.
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40 percent?
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60 percent?
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And 80 percent? Ah, ah, ah.
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This is the result of the British sample.
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By now you can use the result of the British survey to find out what the right answer is, isn’t it?
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Of course, 80 percent is the right answer.
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At least you were clearly better than the British average.
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Yes, 80 percent the population in the world can read and write today.
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Literacy is 80 percent… actually, the last figure is a little higher.
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So if I would have compared that with the chimps again, you know...
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once more you only get random results from the chimps.
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But you get 3 times as many correct answers than you get from the British.
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And now the university people
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Perhaps they know this... oh, even worse.
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What on earth are they teaching at British universities?
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The common view about the world is outdated with several decades. The media has missed to communicate it.
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But perhaps this is because the world is changing so fast.
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Ladies and gentlemen,
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I’m going to give you my all time favourite graph,
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I’m going to show you the history of 200 countries during 200 years in less than 1 minute.
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I have an axis for income. I have an axis for lifespan.
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I start in 1800 and there are all the countries.
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And back in 1800 everyone was down in the poor and sick corner, can you see?
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Low lifespan, little money.
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And here comes the effect of the Industrial Revolution.
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Of course, the countries in West Europe are coming to better wealth, but are not getting much healthier in the beginning
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And those on the colonial domination doesn’t benefit anything in there,
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they remain there in the sick and poor corner.
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And now health is slowly improving here, it’s getting up here and we are coming into the new century.
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And the terrible First World War, and then the economic recession after that.
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And then the Second World War.
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Ooh. And now independence.
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And with independence health is improving faster than it ever did in other countries here.
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And now starts the fast economic catch-up of China and other Latin American countries.
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They come on here you know.
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And India is following there and the African countries are also following.
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It’s an amazing change that has happened in the world.
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You know, in the front here we have now US and UK, but they are not moving so fast any longer.
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The fast movers are here in the middle.
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China is moving very fast to catch up. And Bangladesh...
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Look, Bangladesh is already here, now quite healthy and now starting with fast economic growth.
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And Mozambique… Yes, Mozambique is back there, but they are now moving fast in the right direction.
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But all this I show you are country averages.
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What about people? Have people also got a better life?
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I am now going to show you something which makes me very excited as a statistician.
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I'm going to show you income distribution. The difference between people.
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And to do that I take the bubbles back 50 years
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and then we are going to look only at money.
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And to do that we have to expand and adjust the axis, because the richest is so rich and the poorest is so poor,
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so this will be a bigger difference than between the countries.
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And now we let the country fall down here. This is the United States,
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and spread to show the range within the country.
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And I take down all the countries in the Americas.
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And now you can see from the richest person to the poorest person.
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And the height here shows you how many there are on each income level.
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And now let’s take down Europe.
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And on top of that I’m going to put Africa.
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And finally, the region with most people, on top of everything, Asia.
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Now, in 1963 the world was constituted by two humps:
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first, the richest hump, it’s like a camel, isn’t it?
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The first hump here with the richest is mainly Europe and the Americas.
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And the poorest hump over here is mainly Asia and Africa.
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And the poverty line was there.
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Can you see how many people there were in extreme poverty 50 years ago?
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And most of them were in Asia.
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And people were saying Asia will never get out of poverty, exactly as some people are still saying about Africa today.
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Now, what has happened?
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I start the world.
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And you can see that many people are born into poverty here, but Asia goes towards higher income
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and 1 billion goes out of extreme poverty this way
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and the whole shape of the world change, and that camel is dead.
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It’s reborn as a dromedary.
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And what you can see here, you know,
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is the variation from the richest, that is most people in the middle,
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and there’s a much smaller proportion of the world now in extreme poverty
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but be careful, it’s still a lot of people: more than 1 billion people in extreme poverty.
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Now the question is: can this ‘move out of extreme poverty’ now continue
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for those in Africa and even for the new billions in Africa?
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I think it’s possible, even probable, that most countries in Africa will rise out of poverty too.
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It will need wise action and huge investment, but it can happen.
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The many countries of Africa are not all advancing at the same pace.
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A few are moving very fast, others are stuck in conflict.
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But most, like Mozambique, are now making steady progress.
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And what about feeding all the new African people in the future?
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Yes, there are shortages today, but there is also much potential here.
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Agricultural yields in Africa are just a fraction of what they could be with better technology.
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And Africa’s rivers are barely tapped for irrigation.
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One day Africa could hum with combine harvesters and tractors and grow food for many more billions.
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And please, don’t imagine it’s just me who thinks Africa can make it.
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The United Nations is about to set itself a new official goal: eliminating extreme poverty within 20 years.
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Everyone understands it’s a huge challenge, but I seriously believe it’s possible.
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Imagine if that would happen.
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Now, what we have seen so far is that the rich end moves...
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and the middle... it moves. But this poorest end is stuck.
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It’s here in extreme poverty we find almost all the illiteracy.
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Here we find high child mortality and still many babies born per woman.
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It’s like extreme poverty reproduces itself if you don’t end it swiftly.
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But Andre and Olivia, and people like that, work so hard to get away from it,
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and if they only can get the right help from their government and from the world at large
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with things like school, health, vaccines, roads, electricity, contraceptives,
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then they will manage, but they will mainly manage by their own hard work.
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Here we go… go on... follow Andre and Olivia across the line, you know.
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It is possible within some decades… Yes!
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But getting out of poverty is just the beginning.
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People want to continue along this line to a good life.
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But what does a good life mean?
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For most people in the world the good life they are striving for will mean more machines and much more use of energy.
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So there’s a problem. Because all this adds to one of the great threats for the future: severe climate change.
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80 percent of the energy the world uses is still fossil fuels,
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and the science shows that the climate may change dramatically in the future
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because of the carbon dioxide emission from continuing to burn all these fossil fuels.
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I’m not the best person to tell you how bad climate change will be
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nor am I a specialist on how to prevent it.
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What I can do is to show you data to make you understand who is the one that emits the carbon dioxide.
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I will show this.
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You remember the yardstick from the poorest billion to the richest billion
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from the one who hardly can afford shoes to the one who flies with airplanes
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Now this shows the total amount of fossil fuel used in the world during one year
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coal, oil and natural gas.
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And it represents more or less the total emission of carbon dioxide.
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Now how much of that is used by the richest billion?
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Half of it.
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Now the second richest billion.
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Half of what’s left.
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And you understand what the third use
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half of what’s left. And the others use hardly anything.
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This are rounded numbers, but it clearly shows that almost all the fossil fuel is used here by the 1, 2, 3 richest billions
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more than 85 percent they use.
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Now the richest billion at least have stopped increasing, but we are yet to see whether they will decrease.
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And in the coming decades it’s the economic growth of these 2
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that will increase the fossil fuel use and the carbon dioxide emission.
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Even if these ones over here come out of extreme poverty and get richer all the way to the motorbike
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that doesn’t contribute much to the emission of carbon dioxide.
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And regarding population growth, most of the additional billions in the next 40 years will be in this group here.
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But still, if you ask people in the richest end they seem to get everything wrong.
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They look down on the world from their very high emission and then they say:
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“Oh, those over there, you cannot live like us, you will destroy the planet”.
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You see, I find the argument from the people here catching up to be much more correct and logic.
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They say: "Huh! Who are you to tell us that we can’t live like you?
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You’d better change first if you want us to do it differently”.
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There are many essentials to having a good life that billions in the world do not yet have.
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Andre’s village and house, and so many like them, don’t even have electricity.
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Mozambique has huge coal reserves
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and if it and the other poorest countries build affordable new power-stations burning coal for electricity and industry
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I don’t think anyone who emits more carbon should interfere.
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Now, I’m going to ask you two questions that I often ask my Swedish students.
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The first one is: how many of you have not travelled by an airplane this year?
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Uh-huh.
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Quite a few can do without flying. So the next question is:
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How many of you have stayed away from washing machines and have hand washed all bedsheets,
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clothes and laundry during the last year?
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I thought so, no one.
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Everyone who can afford to use a washing machine, even the hard core in the environmental movement.
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And I still remember the day when my family got a washing machine.
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It was 1st November 1952.
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Grandma was invited to be the first to load the machine.
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She had hand washed her entire life for a family of 9.
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And when she loaded the machine she sat down on a footstool and she watched the entire programme during one hour.
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She was absolutely mesmerised.
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For my mother it also meant a lot of more free time to do other things.
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She could read books for me, I think that’s what made me a professor.
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No wonder we said thank you steel mill,
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thank you washing powder factory, thank you electrical power station.
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Now...
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When thinking about where all this leave us I have just one little humble advice to you,
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beside everything else: look at the data.
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Look at the facts about the world.
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And you will see where we are today and how we can move forwards with all these billions on our wonderful planet.
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The challenges of extreme poverty have been greatly reduced
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and it’s for the first time in history within our power to end it for good.
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The challenge of population growth is, in fact, already being solved,
-
the number of children has stopped growing.
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And for the challenge for climate change, we can still avoid the worst.
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But that requires that the richest, as soon as possible,
-
find a way to set their use of resources and energy at a level that, step by step,
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can be shared by 10 billions or 11 billions by the end of this century.
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I’ve never called myself an optimist,
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but I do say I’m a possibilist.
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And I also say the world is much better than many of you think.
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Thank you very much!