A new kind of job market
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0:00 - 0:04This is about a hidden corner of the labor market.
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0:04 - 0:08It's the world of people who need to work ultra-flexibly,
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0:08 - 0:09if they're to work at all.
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0:09 - 0:10So think, for instance,
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0:10 - 0:14of someone who has a recurring but unpredictable medical condition,
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0:14 - 0:16or somebody who's caring for a dependent adult,
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0:16 - 0:19or a parent with complex child care needs.
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0:19 - 0:22Their availability for work can be such that it's,
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0:22 - 0:24"A few hours today.
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0:24 - 0:28Maybe I can work tomorrow, but I don't know if and when yet."
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0:28 - 0:30And it's extraordinarily difficult for these people
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0:30 - 0:33to find the work that they so often need very badly.
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0:33 - 0:36Which is a tragedy because there are employers
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0:36 - 0:39who can use pools of very flexible local people
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0:39 - 0:43booked completely ad hoc around when that person wants to work.
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0:43 - 0:46Imagine that you run a cafe.
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0:46 - 0:48It's mid-morning, the place is filling up.
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0:48 - 0:49You're going to have a busy lunchtime rush.
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0:49 - 0:52If you could get two extra workers for 90 minutes
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0:52 - 0:55to start in an hour's time,
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0:55 - 1:00you'd do it, but they'd have to be reliable, inducted in how your cafe works.
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1:00 - 1:02They'd have to be available at very competitive rates.
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1:02 - 1:05They'd have to be bookable in about the next minute.
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1:05 - 1:09In reality, no recruitment agency wants to handle that sort of business,
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1:09 - 1:12so you are going to muddle by, understaffed.
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1:12 - 1:15And it's not just caterers, it's hoteliers, it's retailers,
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1:15 - 1:18it's anyone who provides services to the public or businesses.
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1:18 - 1:23There's all sorts of organizations that can use these pools of very flexible people,
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1:23 - 1:26possibly already once they've been inducted.
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1:26 - 1:28At this level of the labor market,
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1:28 - 1:32what you need is a marketplace for spare hours.
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1:32 - 1:34They do exist. Here's how they work.
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1:34 - 1:37So in this example, a distribution company has said,
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1:37 - 1:40we've got a rush order that we've got to get out of the warehouse tomorrow morning.
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1:40 - 1:42Show us everyone who's available.
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1:42 - 1:44It's found 31 workers.
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1:44 - 1:47Everybody on this screen is genuinely available at those specific hours tomorrow.
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1:47 - 1:49They're all contactable in time for this booking.
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1:49 - 1:53They've all defined the terms on which they will accept bookings.
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1:53 - 1:57And this booking is within all the parameters for each individual.
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1:57 - 1:59And they would all be legally compliant by doing this booking.
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1:59 - 2:01Of course, they're all trained to work in warehouses.
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2:01 - 2:04You can select as many of them as you want.
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2:04 - 2:05They're from multiple agencies.
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2:05 - 2:09It's calculated the charge rate for each person for this specific booking.
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2:09 - 2:11And it's monitoring their reliability.
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2:11 - 2:14The people on the top row are the provenly reliable ones.
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2:14 - 2:16They're likely to be more expensive.
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2:16 - 2:19In an alternative view of this pool of local, very flexible people,
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2:19 - 2:21here's a market research company,
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2:21 - 2:25and it's inducted maybe 25 local people in how to do street interviewing.
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2:25 - 2:27And they've got a new campaign. They want to run it next week.
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2:27 - 2:31And they're looking at how many of the people they've inducted
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2:31 - 2:33are available each hour next week.
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2:33 - 2:36And they'll then decide when to do their street interviews.
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2:36 - 2:39But is there more that could be done
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2:39 - 2:40for this corner of the labor market?
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2:40 - 2:43Because right now there are so many people
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2:43 - 2:47who need whatever economic opportunity they can get.
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2:47 - 2:49Let's make it personal.
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2:49 - 2:51Imagine that a young woman -- base of the economic pyramid,
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2:51 - 2:54very little prospect of getting a job --
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2:54 - 2:57what economic activity could she theoretically engage in?
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2:57 - 3:00Well, she might be willing to work odd hours
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3:00 - 3:03in a call center, in a reception area, in a mail room.
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3:03 - 3:06She may be interested in providing local services to her community:
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3:06 - 3:09babysitting, local deliveries, pet care.
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3:09 - 3:12She may have possessions that she would like to trade
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3:12 - 3:13at times she doesn't need them.
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3:13 - 3:17So she might have a sofa bed in her front room that she would like to let out.
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3:17 - 3:21She might have a bike, a video games console she only uses occasionally.
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3:21 - 3:24And you're probably thinking -- because you're all very web-aware --
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3:24 - 3:27yes, and we're in the era of collaborative consumption,
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3:27 - 3:29so she can go online and do all this.
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3:29 - 3:31She can go to Airbnb to list her sofa bed,
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3:31 - 3:35she can go to TaskRabbit.com and say, "I want to do local deliveries," and so on.
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3:35 - 3:41These are good sites, but I believe we can go a step further.
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3:41 - 3:47And the key to that is a philosophy that we call modern markets for all.
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3:47 - 3:52Markets have changed beyond recognition in the last 20 years,
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3:52 - 3:55but only for organizations at the top of the economy.
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3:55 - 3:58If you're a Wall Street trader, you now take it for granted
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3:58 - 4:01that you sell your financial assets in a system of markets
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4:01 - 4:05that identifies the most profitable opportunities for you in real time,
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4:05 - 4:09executes on that in microseconds within the boundaries you've set.
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4:09 - 4:12It analyzes supply and demand and pricing
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4:12 - 4:14and tells you where your next wave of opportunities are coming from.
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4:14 - 4:18It manages counterparty risk in incredibly sophisticated ways.
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4:18 - 4:20It's all extremely low overhead.
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4:20 - 4:23What have we gained at the bottom of the economy
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4:23 - 4:27in terms of markets in the last 20 years?
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4:27 - 4:33Basically classified adverts with a search facility.
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4:33 - 4:35So why do we have this disparity
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4:35 - 4:39between these incredibly sophisticated markets at the top of the economy
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4:39 - 4:42that are increasingly sucking more and more activity and resource
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4:42 - 4:46out of the main economy into this rarefied level of trading,
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4:46 - 4:48and what the rest of us have?
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4:48 - 4:51A modern market is more than a website;
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4:51 - 4:54it's a web of interoperable marketplaces,
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4:54 - 4:57back office mechanisms, regulatory regimes,
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4:57 - 5:01settlement mechanisms, liquidity sources and so on.
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5:01 - 5:05And when a Wall Street trader comes into work in the morning,
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5:05 - 5:10she does not write a listing for every financial derivative she wants to sell today
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5:10 - 5:12and then post that listing on multiple websites
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5:12 - 5:15and wait for potential buyers to get in touch
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5:15 - 5:19and start negotiating the terms on which she might trade.
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5:19 - 5:22In the early days of this modern markets technology,
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5:22 - 5:24the financial institutions worked out
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5:24 - 5:27how they could leverage their buying power, their back office processes,
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5:27 - 5:30their relationships, their networks
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5:30 - 5:34to shape these new markets that would create all this new activity.
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5:34 - 5:37They asked governments for supporting regulatory regimes,
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5:37 - 5:40and in a lot of cases they got it.
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5:40 - 5:42But throughout the economy,
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5:42 - 5:45there are facilities that could likewise leverage
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5:45 - 5:46a new generation of markets
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5:46 - 5:49for the benefit of all of us.
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5:49 - 5:51And those facilities --
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5:51 - 5:55I'm talking about things like the mechanisms that prove our identity,
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5:55 - 5:57the licensing authorities
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5:57 - 6:01that know what each of us is allowed to do legally at any given time,
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6:01 - 6:04the processes by which we resolve disputes through official channels.
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6:04 - 6:07These mechanisms, these facilities
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6:07 - 6:11are not in the gift of Craigslist or Gumtree or Yahoo,
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6:11 - 6:14they're controlled by the state.
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6:14 - 6:17And the policymakers who sit on top of them
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6:17 - 6:23are, I suggest, simply not thinking about how those facilities could be used
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6:23 - 6:26to underpin a whole new era of markets.
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6:26 - 6:30Like everyone else, those policymakers are taking it for granted
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6:30 - 6:33that modern markets are the preserve
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6:33 - 6:41of organizations powerful enough to create them for themselves.
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6:41 - 6:44Suppose we stopped taking that for granted.
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6:44 - 6:47Suppose tomorrow morning the prime minister of Britain or the president of the U.S.,
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6:47 - 6:49or the leader of any other developed nation,
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6:49 - 6:53woke up and said, "I'm never going to be able to create
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6:53 - 6:55all the jobs I need in the current climate.
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6:55 - 7:01I have got to focus on whatever economic opportunity I can get to my citizens.
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7:01 - 7:05And for that they have to be able to access state-of-the-art markets.
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7:05 - 7:07How do I make that happen?"
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7:07 - 7:10And I think I can see a few eyes rolling.
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7:10 - 7:14Politicians in a big, complex, sophisticated I.T. project?
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7:14 - 7:17Oh, that's going to be a disaster waiting to happen.
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7:17 - 7:20Not necessarily.
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7:20 - 7:23There is a precedent for technology-enabled service
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7:23 - 7:27that has been initiated by politicians in multiple countries
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7:27 - 7:29and has been hugely successful:
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7:29 - 7:32national lotteries.
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7:32 - 7:34Let's take Britain as an example.
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7:34 - 7:36Our government didn't design the national lottery,
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7:36 - 7:39it didn't fund the national lottery, it doesn't operate the national lottery.
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7:39 - 7:44It simply passed the National Lottery Act and this is what followed.
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7:44 - 7:47This act defines what a national lottery will look like.
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7:47 - 7:49It specifies certain benefits
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7:49 - 7:52that the state can uniquely bestow on the operators.
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7:52 - 7:54And it puts some obligations on those operators.
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7:54 - 7:58In terms of spreading gambling activity to the masses,
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7:58 - 8:01this was an unqualified success.
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8:01 - 8:03But let's suppose that our aim
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8:03 - 8:07is to bring new economic activity to the base of the pyramid.
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8:07 - 8:09Could we use the same model?
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8:09 - 8:10I believe we could.
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8:10 - 8:15So imagine that policymakers outlined a facility.
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8:15 - 8:19Let's call it national e-markets, NEMs for short.
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8:19 - 8:20Think of it as a regulated public utility.
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8:20 - 8:23So it's on a par with the water supply or the road network.
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8:23 - 8:27And it's a series of markets for low-level trade
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8:27 - 8:30that can be fulfilled by a person or a small company.
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8:30 - 8:33And government has certain benefits
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8:33 - 8:36it can uniquely bestow on these markets.
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8:36 - 8:38It's about public spending going through these markets
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8:38 - 8:41to buy public services at the local level.
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8:41 - 8:43It's about interfacing these markets
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8:43 - 8:46direct into the highest official channels in the land.
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8:46 - 8:50It's about enshrining government's role as a publicist for these markets.
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8:50 - 8:52It's about deregulating some sectors
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8:52 - 8:54so that local people can enter them.
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8:54 - 8:56So, taxi journeys might be one example.
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8:56 - 9:01And there are certain obligations that should go with those benefits
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9:01 - 9:03to be placed on the operators,
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9:03 - 9:04and the key one is, of course,
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9:04 - 9:07that the operators pay for everything,
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9:07 - 9:10including all the interfacing into the public sector.
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9:10 - 9:13So imagine that the operators make their return
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9:13 - 9:17by building a percentage markup into each transaction.
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9:17 - 9:19Imagine that there's a concession period
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9:19 - 9:22defined of maybe 15 years
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9:22 - 9:26in which they can take all these benefits and run with them.
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9:26 - 9:29And imagine that the consortia who bid to run it are told,
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9:29 - 9:33whoever comes in at the lowest percentage markup on each transaction
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9:33 - 9:34to fund the whole thing
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9:34 - 9:36will get the deal.
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9:36 - 9:38So government then exits the frame.
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9:38 - 9:39This is now in the hands of the consortium.
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9:39 - 9:42Either they are going to unlock an awful lot of economic opportunity
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9:42 - 9:44and make a percentage on all of it
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9:44 - 9:45or it's all going to crash and burn,
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9:45 - 9:47which is tough on their shareholders.
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9:47 - 9:50It doesn't bother the taxpayer necessarily.
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9:50 - 9:54And there would be no constraints on alternative markets.
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9:54 - 9:57So this would just be one more choice
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9:57 - 9:59among millions of Internet forums.
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9:59 - 10:02But it could be very different,
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10:02 - 10:06because having access to those state-backed facilities
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10:06 - 10:08could incentivize this consortium
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10:08 - 10:10to seriously invest in the service.
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10:10 - 10:13Because they would have to get a lot of these small transactions going
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10:13 - 10:15to start making their return.
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10:15 - 10:20So we're talking about sectors like home hair care,
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10:20 - 10:24the hire of toys, farm work,
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10:24 - 10:27hire of clothes even, meals delivered to your door,
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10:27 - 10:29services for tourists, home care.
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10:29 - 10:36This would be a world of very small trades, but very well-informed,
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10:36 - 10:40because national e-markets will deliver data.
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10:40 - 10:42So this is a local person
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10:42 - 10:45potentially deciding whether to enter the babysitting market.
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10:45 - 10:48And they might be aware that they would have to fund vetting and training
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10:48 - 10:50if they wanted to go into that market.
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10:50 - 10:52They'd have to do assessment interviews with local parents
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10:52 - 10:54who wanted a pool of babysitters.
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10:54 - 10:55Is it worth their while?
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10:55 - 10:57Should they be looking at other sectors?
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10:57 - 10:59Should they be moving to another part of the country
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10:59 - 11:01where there's a shortage of babysitters?
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11:01 - 11:03This kind of data can become routine.
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11:03 - 11:05And this data can be used by investors.
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11:05 - 11:09So if there's a problem with a shortage of babysitters in some parts of the country
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11:09 - 11:11and the problem is nobody can afford the vetting and training,
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11:11 - 11:13an investor can pay for it
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11:13 - 11:17and the system will tithe back the enhanced earnings of the individuals
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11:17 - 11:18for maybe the next two years.
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11:18 - 11:22This is a world of atomized capitalism.
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11:22 - 11:24So it's small trades by small people,
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11:24 - 11:31but it's very informed, safe, convenient, low-overhead and immediate.
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11:31 - 11:34Some rough research suggests this could unlock
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11:34 - 11:38around 100 million pounds' worth a day of new economic activity
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11:38 - 11:40in a country the size of the U.K.
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11:40 - 11:42Does that sound improbable to you?
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11:42 - 11:47That's what a lot of people said about turbo trading
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11:47 - 11:50in financial exchanges 20 years ago.
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11:50 - 11:53Do not underestimate the transformative power
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11:53 - 11:56of truly modern markets.
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11:56 - 11:57Thank you.
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11:57 - 11:59(Applause)
- Title:
- A new kind of job market
- Speaker:
- Wingham Rowan
- Description:
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Plenty of people need jobs with very flexible hours -- but it's difficult for those people to connect with the employers who need them. Wingham Rowan is working on that. He explains how the same technology that powers modern financial markets can help employers book workers for slivers of time.
- Video Language:
- English
- Team:
- closed TED
- Project:
- TEDTalks
- Duration:
- 12:20
Morton Bast edited English subtitles for A new kind of job market | ||
Morton Bast edited English subtitles for A new kind of job market | ||
Thu-Huong Ha approved English subtitles for A new kind of job market | ||
Thu-Huong Ha edited English subtitles for A new kind of job market | ||
Morton Bast accepted English subtitles for A new kind of job market | ||
Morton Bast edited English subtitles for A new kind of job market | ||
Timothy Covell added a translation |